Future Commercial Aircraft 1

Future Commercial Aircraft November 2008 Professor Andrew Walker Christine Bowling

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AEROSPACE MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE COMMERCIAL

REGIONAL

GENERAL

AEROSPACE

JET

AVIATION

-Narrow-body Aircraft

-Turboprop - Jet

- Wide-body Aircraft

HELICOPTER

DEFENCE

SPACE

- Piston

- Civil

-Fighter

-Satellite

- Turboprop

- Military

-Ground attacker

-Launch Vehicle

- Bizjet

-Bomber

-Trainer -UAV

Global Market 2008

$51.0bn

$7.7bn

$11.4bn

$9.2bn

$36.9bn

$17.2bn

AGENDA 1. Commercial Demand 2. Future Aircraft 3. Composites – Design & Manufacturing 4. Carbon Fibre

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1. Commercial – Demand Forecast

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World Passenger Air Travel in 2008 16.4% in 2022

18.4% in 2022

9.7% 25.9%

9.5% 14%

9.7%

1.4%

2.5% 2.6% Region

AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

1999-2008

2009-2018

1999-2018

Africa

203

354

457

Asia, Oceania and CIS

1664

2844

4508

Europe

2794

3221

6015

Middle East

285

270

555

Central America, Caribbean & South America

652

734

1386

North America

3304

3925

7229

Total

8902

11248

20150

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Fuel Burn 50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020 20% more efficient engines 30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics Streamlined ATM?

Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel

“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020” Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better? 20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East! 21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York 20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005

NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%

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Low Mass Transport Systems • It is common convention to describe Newton‟s 2nd Law Force = Mass x Acceleration • Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.

Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights • The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.

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Vehicle Weight by Generation Kg 1550

1450

VW Vectra Golf Mk5 2 Toyota Corolla

1350

1250

Vectra 1 Toyota Corolla

1150

1050

950

VW Golf Mk4

Toyota Cavalier Mk3 Corolla

Vauxhall Cavalier Mk1

Toyota Toyota Cavalier Corolla Corolla Mk2

Toyota Corolla

Citroen GS VW Golf Mk1

850

VW Golf Mk2

Ford Escort MK2 Astra Mk1

VW Golf Mk3

Ford Focus

Astra Mk5

Citroen Xsara

Ford Escort MK5 Citroen ZX

Ford Escort MK4 Citroen

Astra Mk3

BX

Ford Escort MK3

Astra Mk4

Astra Mk2

Source: Jaguar

YEARS 2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

750 8

Weight per passenger

BOEING 707

AIRBUS A380

1954, 700kg/passenger

2008, 1,100kg/passenger

(Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day)

An Economic Crisis

“ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!”

or Business Opportunity! •

Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m

•

JET „A‟ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, 2009)

•

Fuel is 50-60% of operators cost

•

If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle

•

A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month

•

Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years

•

General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in 2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices.

- lean

programmes running.

Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!

Evolution or Revolution •

New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic)

Options •

A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)

•

Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)

•

New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016)

•

400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales

•

“CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)

•

Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements

•

Customers want new aircraft now!

•

Will Boeing lead Airbus?

•

New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?

“ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”

AIRBUS A320 ENHANCED

• EVOLUTION!

Flying Wing

Commercial Aircraft

De-regulation

Composites

Approx. 30% improvement over 50 years

EUREKA TIMES

787 A300

Activity Index

A380

DC-10 747 Pan-Am Tu-104

707, Swept Wing, Jets

Comet Jetliner - 102

30% efficiency improvement over 5-10 years

Constellation TWA Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307

Merlin Engine

Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary

War Technology Aluminium Aeroplane DC3

1930‟s

Timeline

1940‟s

1960‟s

1970‟s

2004

14

1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes

Vickers Vernon (1927)

Armstrong Whitworth Argosy

Boeing 247 (1932) •

Metal Construction

•

Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction

•

Cantilevered Wing

•

Variable Pitch Propeller

•

Reliable Engine

•

Retractable Landing Gear

“An Operators Perspective” • 115 Aircraft -

15, B747-400 13, B747-400F 58, B777-200/200ER/300 19, B777-300ER 5, A340-500 5, A380-800

(14+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (15+ hours/day) (14 hours/day) (16+ hours/day)

4th largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax Kilometre 2nd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)

FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS

• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions”. • The challenge “To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties”

The Maintenance Bag

Reliability

Fatigue

Costs Weight

Corrosion:

Corrosion

Repairability

33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam) No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!

Worries 1.

Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well understood. February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)

2.

Susceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem 50°c!

3.

Full or Zero Repair Approach

4.

NDT Limitations

“Quick & dirty option”

Consequence of Unscheduled Event

Conclusions “Composites enable us to do more with less” “Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient” “The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”

The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled events

“In this way we would be the „master of the situation‟ and not the servant”

2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!

- Payload ratio - Drag - Thrust

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Blended Wing

FUTURE AIRCRAFT

Oblique Wing

Honda Jet

Activity Index (air traffic) (value)

Airbus A350

(performance)

Cessna Mustang

Boeing 787

Composites Avionics

ARJ 21

Payloads

Eclipse 500

A380

Timeline

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Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft 2008-2024)

A380 Fuselage

Carbon composite pressure bulkhead 23

Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins)

Airbus A350 (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024) 35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP

Conventional Derivative of the A330

Original entry into service 2010

Major Redesign Now 2012-2014 25

Boeing 787 Dreamliner (Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 - 2024)

More than 50% composite aircraft Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings! Entry into service 2009 – more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion) 30

Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024) 100-200 Seats

Airbus A320 successor (2015)

higher bypass engines extended wingspan reduced rear stabilisers

Boeing Y1 Project (2014) scaled version of 787? composite airframe higher aspect ratio wing design

New generation centreline engine in 2014? 31

Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024) A new aircraft family to fill the sweetspot between regional jets and mid-size airlines ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013 Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer 100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 5566T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout

PI = Range x Speed x Volume MTOW

RJ’s

A318

107 seats

$45m

A319

124 seats

$55m

A320

150 seats

$62m

B717

107 seats

$40m

100 seats

$30m

Boeing Yellowstone Project Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)

Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370 350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine

HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1 First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System

Total Market for Business and General Aviation 19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014 29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024

Adam Aircraft

Honda

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3. COMPOSITES

Weight Saving and Aerodynamics (Payload & Drag) 40

Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Vimy Commercial 1920 17

Vickers Viscount 1956 14

Modern Single Aisle 1986 24

Modern Long Range 1979 18

Concorde Supersonic 1969 9

Fuel

25

23

18

37

48

Systems Crew etc.

11

25

18

12

10

Power Plant

18

12

11

10

10

Structure

29

26

29

23

23

Payload

Payload

A300-600F

Boeing 737NG Freight

A380-800F Freighter

A400M

~30

~26

~26

25-28

History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.

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Performance Targets Advanced Aircraft Technologies

Weight Reduction 11%

Manufacturing Design + Advanced Materials

5.5%-6.0% fuel saving

Drag Reduction

Low Noise

Engines

7%

Aerodynamics + Composites

6.5% fuel saving

12% fuel saving in 2014 17%-19% saving in 2020

29% - 31% FUEL SAVING

Composite Applications in the Aerospace Market Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems

Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc

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Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey

Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

(picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

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45

46

47

50

51

52

55

Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7 Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag

Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft

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AERODYNAMICS Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance

Cd A380 = 0.0133

Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012

F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)

COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )

ratio

REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS 58

Laminar Airflow Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.

Geodetic (Basketweave) Principle Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface”

Loads carried by shortest route Eliminates internal load carrying structure Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraft Payload of 34% 60

GEODETIC AIRCRAFT Vickers 432 experimental wing

R-100 Airship

Wellington Factory

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Design Rules 1. 2. 3. 4.

5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Curves not Corners Linear joints rather than bolts and rivets Reduce component “part” count! Wings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge - smooth surfaces - GINA shape, changing system - reduce monuments, front spar, ribs - high flexural wing - laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils) - no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing) Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels” “Small” Empanage “Electric” not “hydraulic” Accurate assembly, water jet cutting Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc. Female Moulds

STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT Vertical Integration Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture) Netshape woven textiles – Advanced Materials

Optimized Virtual Design

Low Cost Processing

Net Shape Composites

Low Cost Assembly

Self Monitoring (NDT)

Self Healing

25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs

Timescales Operators Specification

0-3 years

Design Concept

Detailed Design

3 years

Low hanging fruit

Design Fix

Manufacturer

5 years

6 years

Medium to Large Primary

Simple Primary

Wings & Fuselage

- interiors

ribs

rear pressure bulkhead

complete fuselage

- secondary structures

stringers

tail sector

wings

- fuel pipes

floor beams

complex and thick sections

general aviation components

composite pylons

engines

Philosophy Background

Objectives

Scope

Constraints

Assumptions

Resources

Deliverables

Output

Value

FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT

Year

A320

A330-A340

A340-600

A380

A400M

Total

2007

371

71

10

1

0

453

2008

389

77

12

8

1

487

2009

414

87

10

30

12

553

2010

414

89

10

50

19

582

A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year

A350

A32X

2014

3

0

2015

65

2016

100 (140)

80 (150)

2017

110 (140)

370 (360)

2018

130 (140)

460 (480)

(140)

4

BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE) Year

B787

Y1

2007

0

2008

7

2009

49

2010

96

2011

148

2012

180

2013

200

2014

200

1

2015

200

65

2016

225

180

2017

200

260

2018

200

450

The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.

4. CARBON FIBRE

Future Demand for an Advanced Material

Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020 Confirmed Scenario

Forecast Scenario

Aluminium Model

2020

2020

2020

2006

2010

3,700

5,200

3,400

2,000 2,600 6,000

200 100 -

2,000 3,000 -

2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000

2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000

900

1,250

1,800

230

488

625

Total

5,130

11,938

31,525

1,200 46,100

Wind Energy

3,750

7,500

20,000

60,000

Sports

5,420

6,660

8,330

Industrial (including gas tanks)

11,660

16,666

25,830

1,000

1,000

26,960

43,764

Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X Military Fighters, transport, helicopters Regional Aircraft and Business Jets

Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) Grand total

1,000 86,685

2,600

9,000 50,000 2,000 167,100

364,000