Page 1 Football Trading Portfolio
by
David Heaton
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Page 2 Football Trading Portfolio
LEGAL NOTICE Disclaimer & Terms of Use
This e-book has been put together for educational purposes only; it is not a guarantee that you will make a profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very good living from football, but trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to "get rich quick". This book shares a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you decide to trade using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for your own actions. Your success or income level cannot be guaranteed. The author shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties. It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you are. In regions where gambling is illegal, this e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in this e-book which lead to a third-party website must only be used when the local laws allow. You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may not be shared or sold. If you think you may have a problem with gambling, there is plenty of help out there for you. All of these websites offer advice and assistance:-
http://www.gamcare.org.uk/ http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/ http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/ http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/
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Page 3 Football Trading Portfolio
Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 Bank Management and Discipline .......................................................................................................................... 5 gBht (goal Before half time) ................................................................................................................................... 6 LAHT (Loser At Half Time) ....................................................................................................................................... 7 GO (Goals Over) ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 gAht (Goals After Half Time) ................................................................................................................................... 9 Good Luck! ............................................................................................................................................................ 10
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Page 4 Football Trading Portfolio
Introduction The systems which make up my Football Trading Portfolio have been created from Team Statistics data which is available to members of Goal Profits. The statistics cover more than 60 Leagues and I have analysed the results of these matches from a database dating from 1st June 2013, more than 12,500 matches and growing day by day. Team Statistics is evolving over time with new pages being added on a regular basis and it has become a vital data source for developing profitable trading strategies. My Football Trading Portfolio consists of 4 systems: Goal Before Half Time (gBht) This system is based on the probability of a goal being scored in the First Half of the match. Loser At Half Time (LAHT) This system is based on the probability of one of the teams losing at half time. Goals Over (GO) This system is based on the likely hood of 2 or more goals being scored by the end of the game. Goals After Half Time (gAht) This system is based on the probability of goals being scored in the Second Half of the match and the likely hood that these goals will be scored late in the game. All bets are placed on the Betfair Exchange and no trading is required, they are all 'set and forget' systems. All but one of the systems (gAht) can be set up each morning and left to run with no attention whatsoever needed during the match. You can be shopping, watching TV, working, whatever life has in store for you on that particular day. gAht can be set up at half time, you just need to check the score and place your bet. It also has the option to place two further bets during the course of the second half, but these are optional and if it doesn't suit your lifestyle to stay around for the second half you don't have to. Selections and Staking recommendations will be sent to you by Email each day at 18:00 UK time with details of the following day's advices. An Email will still be sent on days when there are no selections at the same time.
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Page 5 Football Trading Portfolio
Bank Management and Discipline This is the bit that nobody likes to read, so I've put it at the beginning before I show you the exciting stuff. Your Trading Bank must be completely separate from your normal daily banking requirements. It should be money that you can afford and don’t require for bills and your usual lifestyle choices. You should never use money that you can’t afford to lose; this will give you an emotional attachment and will cloud your judgement. Do not concentrate on day to day profit and loss, but think longer term, month to month or maybe longer. I do not expect every system in my portfolio to make a profit every day and every week, that’s just not realistic. However, I do expect them all to make a profit long-term and it is rare that my portfolio as a whole suffers a losing month. I spread risk so that I can cover the inevitable losses. When operating multiple systems or strategies, it is essential that you split your trading bank. FTP has a total of four strategies and each should have its own trading bank. You don't have to play them all, you can chose one or two if you want, but once you have decided which to play you should give them enough time to make a profit. Do not system hop, stick with what you have decided and give it time to show its worth. Each of the four FTP strategies has a trading bank of 20 points and 1 point being 5% of the bank. If you play them all, like I do, you will need a total trading bank of 80 points. The value of your trading bank is entirely your decision, but once you have made the decision do not change your mind. The minimum bet I will be recommending is 0.25 points and a bank as small as £160 for each strategy can be used if you wish (1 point = £8 and 0.25 point = £2 Betfair minimum stake) Remember that 1 point should always be 5% of your trading bank for each strategy, you can revise this on a monthly basis if you want as the bank grows, but always stick to the 1 point = 5% rule. I will start with a bank of £400 for each strategy (£1,600 for them all) and my stake will be £20 per point.
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Page 6 Football Trading Portfolio
gBht (goal Before half time) Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per Selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Maximum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least one goal to be scored before half time. Better than 85%. 20 points. I will advise either 1 point or 0.5 point. Half Time Score. Just before kickoff. Lay 0-0 score with liability of advised risk (either 1 point or 0.5 point) . 4.0, if higher than 4.0 place at 4.0 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
Example:
In the above example there is a small gap between the back and lay prices for 0-0 (2.88-2.92). I would therefore place my lay in the middle at 2.90 and if my liability was £10 my lay stake would be calculated at £10/(2.9-1) = £5.26. I would then tick the keep in play box in case I don't get matched before kickoff.
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Page 7 Football Trading Portfolio
LAHT (Loser At Half Time) Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per Selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Maximum Odds: Attention Required:
We want one of the teams to be losing at half time. Better than 80%. 20 points. I will advise either 1 point or 0.5 point. Half Time. Just before kickoff. Lay the draw in Half Time market with liability of advised stake (1 point or 0.5 point) 3.2, if higher than 3.2 place at 3.2 and set bet to 'keep in play' None, Set and Forget.
Example:
In the above example I would lay The Draw (HT) at 2.22. if my liability was £10 my lay stake would be calculated at £10/(2.22-1) = £8.20.
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Page 8 Football Trading Portfolio
GO (Goals Over) This strategy consists of two bets, Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals. A total bank of 20 points will be required, 10 points for each part. Over 1.5 Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Minimum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least two goals to be scored by the end of the match. Better than 85%. 10 points. 0.5 point. Over/Under 1.5 Goals. Just before kickoff. Back Over 1.5 Goals. 1.25, if lower than 1.25 place at 1.25 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
Example:
In the above example I would back Over 1.5 Goals at 1.37.
Over 2.5 Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Minimum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least three goals to be scored by the end of the match. Better than 65%. 10 points. 0.5 point. Over/Under 2.5 Goals. Just before kickoff. Back Over 2.5 Goals. 1.65, if lower than 1.65 place at 1.65 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
Example:
In the above example I would back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.14.
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Page 9 Football Trading Portfolio
gAht (Goals After Half Time) This strategy consists of a maximum of three bets, gA45, gA59 and gA69. I will advise which to play in my selection Email. A total bank of 20 points will be required, 10 points for gA45 and 5 each for gA59 and gA69. Important Requirement: Between 1 and three goals scored before half time. If four or more goals are scored or the score is 0-0 by half time we don't get involved. The score at 59 and 69 minutes is not taken into account. gA45 Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Risk per selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Minimum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least one goal to be scored in the second half of the match. Better than 90%. Required: 10 points. 0.5 point. Over/Under x.5 Goals. (x = number of goals scored at half time). Just before Second Half kicks off. Back Over x.x Goals for one more goal. 1.25, if lower than 1.25 place at 1.25 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
gA59 Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Minimum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least one goal to be scored after 59 minutes. Better than 85%. 5 points. 0.25 point. Over/Under x.5 Goals. (x = number of goals scored at half time). Just before 60 minutes have been played, I recommend Bet365 for match timings. Back Over x.x Goals for one more goal. 1.3, if lower than 1.3 place at 1.3 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
gA69 Strategy: Expected Winners: Bank Required: Risk per selection: Betfair Market Used: Bet Placed: Bet: Minimum Odds: Attention Required:
We want at least one goal to be scored after 69 minutes. Better than 70%. 5 points. 0.25 point. Over/Under x.5 Goals. (x = number of goals scored at half time). Just before 70 minutes have been played, I recommend Bet365 for match timings. Back Over x.x Goals for one more goal. 1.55, if lower than 1.55 place at 1.55 and set bet to 'keep in play'. None, Set and Forget.
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Page 10 Football Trading Portfolio
Good Luck! All of the information you need to start trading my systems is contained within this manual. However, if you have any questions please Email me at
[email protected] I wish you good luck with your trading. Kind Regards.
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