Football Trading Made Easy

FOOTBALL TRADING MADE EASY

Hi, Thanks for purchasing my Betfair (or Betdaq) football trading system. Good luck with you selections and please feel free to contact me through Ebay with any questions. My system has been successful because it limits risk and gives steady and consistent profits, I’m not going to lie to you from time to time it does go wrong, but by the time it does you will already have taken action to make sure that your loss will be minimal. I have been trading on Betfair for 2 years plus and have been successful for most of that period. I have only been trading with a small bank as I’m a fairly cautious guy with a family to support so like most people cant afford to lose ££££ through gambling loses, it has only been this year that I have been trading in three figure sums (I now trade in £250 blocks- more about this later) rather than £20 or £30 sums as I have built up my bank to a level where I am comfortable that I can risk that sum of money without jeopardising my long term profits. When I started on betfair I was trading in the minimum £2 bets to build up my skills, so don’t be put off if you don’t have hundreds of pounds to throw at this project. If you are totally new to betting exchanges then this next section will be a god send, if you already have exchange accounts it may be a little below your level but could be a good refresher!

Betting exchanges Betting exchanges role in the world of gambling is simple. Their role is to get together people who want to back or lay an event. By backing (blue section) an event you are placing money on the fact the chosen outcome will occur, by laying (pink section) you feel it will not. For example if Manchester united were playing Liverpool and you layed the away team: Manchester United Win = your lay bet wins Draw = your lay bet wins Liverpool win = your lay bet loses. Lots of backer’s and layer’s come together on the exchange to place a bet and get their bets matched at the best available price. Backers are people

who want to bet on an event happening and layers are betting on an event not happening. Money from both sides is placed up front with the exchange to ensure all bets are honoured and winnings are returned shortly after the event closes. No bookmaker makes the odds, it’s just the pure demand and supply of people wanting to get their bets matched. The main exchanges are http://www.betfair.com/

And, http://www.betdaq.com/UI/Default.aspx

Look out for what special offers the exchanges have on at the time you register, for example at the moment betfair has a free £25 bet when you open your account. Trading on the exchanges

Apart from backing and laying odds, you are able to "trade" them. The main attraction to Betfair Trading is the ability to guarantee a profit on an event regardless of the outcome. This means that no matter who wins the event, you can generate a profit. To do this, you will either have to back odds then lay them for lower or lay and then back at a higher price to guarantee a profit. The main principal here is to "Back High and Lay Low". It doesn't matter which one you do first. For example

I placed a lay bet on the draw in this match before the game started. The odds of a draw between Rangers vs. Celtic are usually around 3.6 - 4.0. The odds have been provided below: Back ------------ Lay 1.9 Rangers 2.0 2.3 Celtic 2.4 3.8 Draw 3.85 I placed a lay bet of £30 on the draw at 3.85 before the match began. The match kicked-off at 12pm that day and after 30 minutes of open play, Dado Prso had scored for Rangers! This was good news as it made the price of the draw rise. The draw odds had risen because Rangers were the favourite and because they had scored first, it was likely that match would not end in a draw. The odds had changed to look like this: Back ------------ Lay 1.3 Rangers 1.4 3.5 Celtic 3.6 5.3 Draw 5.4 The draw odds moved higher and the back odds were now showing 4.9 ! I had to take this opportunity so i placed a back bet of £23.57 which meant that i had guaranteed a profit of £6.10 on this football match . The final score on this match was 2-1 to Rangers, but after the first goal had went in, I didn't need to worry about the final score because I had already made my money.

Trading Over/Under Market Generally speaking, it's not hard to find stats that will indicate whether a team scores or concedes many goals. Obviously when two teams with tight defences and poor attacks meet, the game tends to have few goals and viceversa. Soccer Stats is an excellent site that produces over under predictions for all of the major leagues in Europe http://www.soccerstats.com/

The fact is that, on average, the first goal of a game is scored around the 37th minute mark. So, by blindly backing under 2.5 goals in all matches alone you'll have a high strike rate of success if you traded under 2.5 goals back, after laying it pre-match with ten minutes gone and the game still being 0-0. However, by being selective and choosing those games low scoring teams, the strike rate could be made even higher. The odds will probably reflect this, but when trading the odds don't really matter. What you're looking for is the price to move in your favour and I expect the % price movements for higher and lower prices are about the same, meaning you don't lose much backing these low odd matches, but have a higher chance of success.

My trading methods! – The good bit The only market I trade for big stakes is the over /under goals markets on betfair – that’s where I have an edge and make money so that the only market I touch for big money. Betfair has hundreds of football matches each week that are what’s called “in play” – this basically means that you can bet on the outcome of a match whilst its still in progress – these are the matches we need to know about. By going onto the betfair forum markets section at the start of each week we will be able to see what matches have been selected to be “in play” this week and what times they start. Most major matches such as the ones from the premiership or la liga will be there plus a selection from other leagues around Europe.

Now the profit making begins! Select the games you wish to trade and ensure that you have enough time free to be able to trade for the duration of the match. Only trade league matches – no cup or international competitions I then apply 5 trading rules during the match

Rule number One – never get involved before 70 minutes of the match has been played, this may sound strange as in that 70 minutes you could have traded you way to a profit a hundred times over but you also could have got yourself in a position where a goal has gone against you – by limiting your involvement to the last 20 minutes you are reducing the likely hood that goals will be scored that could cost you money. Also after 70 minutes you can evaluate what type of encounter its been, is it a cagey scrap or a goal fest? If the answer is goal fest then I would be inclined to leave the match alone. Rule number Two – only trade matches that have had one goal or less scored after 70 minutes – this reduces the likely hood that goals will be scored as the match is still finely balanced. Always trade with at least a one goal insurance policy this means that if a goal goes in whilst you are trading all is not lost – your trade will still be successful if no further goals are scored. Rule number Three – Don’t get involved in markets where the price to back is above 1.15 in decimal odds (there is an odds converter available on betfair to convert to traditional odds), and only look to make a 0.05% profit – for example if you back under 2.5 goals after 70 minutes of a goalless draw @ 1.09 – look to trade out by laying @ 1.04. The betfair markets are amazingly accurate at evaluating the chances of an outcome occurring – by getting involved in markets with higher odds the likely hood is that the odds are higher as there is more chance that events will go against you!

If you were using £100 stakes you would make a £4.75 profit if the final match result was below 2.5 goals. (After commission taken on winning bets by the exchange, usually 5%)

If you were using £500 stakes you would make £23.75 (after commission taken on winning bets by the exchange, usually 5%) At this rate you would win double your stake every 22 matches! Or approximately every 5.5 hours of trading! 22 matches x £4.75 = 104.50! So effectively after your first 22 matches you are not even risking any of your own capital money – just your winnings !

Rule number Four – Never stay involved after 85 minutes – the last 5 minutes of games are ripe for goals to go in. If a team is one goal behind they will throw caution to the wind as they have nothing to lose – this means that they are more likely to score but also more likely to concede as their attacking will leave them vulnerable to counter attacks.

Rule number Five – If a goal is scored trade out – This basically means trading yourself into a position where the amount you lose is the same regardless of if another goal is scored or not. If you were using £100 stakes and a goal did go in as you were trading you would be able to lay under 2.5 goals between 1.2 – 1.25 which would mean that you would lose £10 – 15 on the game. You would basically do this by laying under 2.5 goals for less that £100 – if you traded out 1.20 with a lay of £93 you would be in a scenario as below.

A SUMMARY:

1. Don’t get involved before 70 minutes has been played 2. Only trade matches with one goal or less after 70 minutes. 3. Don’t get involved over odds of 1.15 4. Trade out before the last 5 minutes of the game 5. If a goal goes against you – trade out.

The method above is the main way I make a profit on the exchanges, however I do operate a number of methods using small stakes to generate some cash.

£££ Other ways to make cash trading football £££

INSURANCE TRADING: Basically looking to applying the same principle as above try to identify positions that have a “one goal insurance policy”, for example backing over 4.5 goals in a game that has already had 3 goals scored in it when nearing the end of the game. This is more risky that the method I use above as the potential for more goals being scored in what has already been an open game is higher, therefore increasing your risk. It will however allow you have more opportunities to trade as most games will have some sort of scope for you to trade them. As you can trade more games, take a lower yield from each trade to limit your risk and exposure to the market. OVERREACTION AFTER A GOAL: When a goal goes in the over/unders markets go crazy, naturally people overreact. Try backing unders after the first goal has just gone in and the trade out a few minutes later when the market settles – I make some serious cash doing this!! e.g. – back under 2.5 goals after the first goal has been scored. Always look for your one goal insurance though as the big downside with this method is that if two goals are scored in quick succession it pouts you in a very unfavourable position.

LAY NO NEXT GOAL IN THE FINAL FIVE MINUTES: Laying no next goal on the “next goal market” can be a big earner, look for games that already have a goal or two in them and lay no next goal on 85 minutes, most of the time you will lose – with a small loss, but when a goal goes in you will reap a handsome profit for your efforts!! You could also try doing it for small stakes so you can roll some of the loss onto your next bet, how ever you are in the realms of the martingale system then (which is frowned on by most gamblers). Do a Google search on the martingale system

for more info but it’s basically adding any previous losses onto your next bet until you get a winner and hoping that you bank isn’t emptied first!! LAY THE DRAW: Look for games that are pretty evenly matched and lay the draw, when a goal goes in, the draw price should rise – look to back at this point to lock in a profit, also try placing a bet on the 0-0 correct score to cover any goalless draws. SENDING OFF MARKET: The majority of sending’s off happen in the last 3rd of a game, back no sending off pre kick off and look to trade out for a profit during the second half, downside to this one is obviously if someone is sent off before you trade out you lose you stake with no way of trading in back. SMALL ODDS: Try backing at small odds, say 1.01 to 1.06 – there is a guy on the betfair forums called Shalke04 who says he makes a good profit looking for near certainties and backing them, not a method I use, too much hassle, not much reward and a BIG - BIG downside if the bet goes wrong! Check out the betfair forums if you want to know more!! LINKS Check out some betting and trader’s blogs, very good source of information. My personal favourite is the gambler – seems like a nice chap, seems to make a good profit as well – not a bad combination!! http://sportsbetting.onbloglist.com/ THANKS Thanks for buying my e-book, I hope you find it useful. Give it a go! – please mail any queries or questions to [email protected]