Football Trader

Football Trader

Betting methods to help you maximize your profit! 1

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ............................................................................................... 3 Introduction......................................................................................................... 4 Football Trader – Getting started ...................................................................... 6 Betting exchanges ........................................................................................................ 6 Betfair operations ......................................................................................................... 7

What is the football system? ............................................................................. 8 System 1.............................................................................................................. 9 Condition ................................................................................................................................. 9

Example 1................................................................................................................... 11 BET 1 .................................................................................................................................... 13 BET2 ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Quick re-cap of steps ............................................................................................................ 14 75th minute rule ..................................................................................................................... 14 So what do we do now?........................................................................................................ 15 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 17

Example 2................................................................................................................... 18 Example 3................................................................................................................... 24 Half Time............................................................................................................................... 25

Example 4................................................................................................................... 28 When things go against you.................................................................................................. 30 Different types of matches .................................................................................................... 31

System 2............................................................................................................ 34 Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 36 Example 1................................................................................................................... 38 Quick re-cap.......................................................................................................................... 41

Example 2................................................................................................................... 42 When things go wrong and the trade goes against you ....................................................... 44 What to do?........................................................................................................................... 45

Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 49

3

Introduction

Thank you for purchasing ‘Football Trader’. This comprehensive guide will teach you the ins and outs of trading football games on the exchanges. By following our methods and strategies you will have the knowledge to make a healthy income week after week. The methods I teach you in this book are my own and I have been using them over the past 2 years to make a very generous second income. £150 - £400 is a realistic target that can be achieved each week, I usually make around £250 but will be increasing my stakes with the profits from selling this book. Let me point out that sharing my methods with others will not affect my chances of winning. No matter how many people are using this strategy you will not be affected. Before we begin let me outline a few important factors about trading. ™ Since the start of the betting exchanges a few years ago, we have been given the opportunity not only to bet on a certain outcome but to bet against it too (this is known as laying). This provides us with many opportunities and overall is the key element of trading. We can bet on a team winning and then, during the game, we can bet on them losing, to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. This form of trading is sometimes called arbing. ™ Laying a team (for example, betting that Aston Villa will lose to Liverpool) reduces the number of possible outcomes in a game. For example, before the exchanges existed you could only bet on a) Aston Villa winning b) Liverpool winning or c) a draw. So there were 3 possible outcomes. Now that we can lay a team we have eliminated one of the outcomes. If we bet on Aston Villa losing, we win our bet if it’s a draw or if Liverpool win. Therefore there are only two possible outcomes in a match: a win or a draw. ™ Thousands of people bet on Betfair (a leading betting exchange) every day, but only about 2% of them actually make a profit in the long run, and the majority of these people are traders.

4

Football Trader

™ Trading is not gambling. Gambling is considered to be a risk, where you are hoping for a certain result to occur. Trading on the other hand involves carefully selected bets combined with a successful strategy to minimise losses and produce a profit regardless of the outcome. Traders anticipate the market and bet when there is good value to be had. ™ Trading involves self-control and discipline, which are things you will gain with experience. Without the right level of discipline you will not make it as a trader. A lot of people become too greedy and put themselves at risk - these are the people who fail. Right, now before you begin to study the system, make sure you are in the right frame of mind. You should always be focussed when trading, and there is no reason why it should be any different when learning. If you don’t get this bit right you will never know what you are doing.

5

Football Trader – Getting started

Before you can start trading properly there are a few things you need: 1)

The obvious one is a PC. Make sure your PC is up-to-date and not too slow. Do not have too many programs open at once, since this can slow things down. There are a lot of free tools on the Internet that can improve the performance of your PC.

2)

Internet connection: I highly recommend you have a broadband connection; it is much faster than dial-up and is relatively cheap now.

3)

Once your PC and internet connection are OK, you will need to open a Betfair account, and register a credit or debit card to allow you to add funds to your betting account. The URL is: http://www.betfair.com/

4)

Not essential but recommended, a TV with access to as many live football games as possible.

Betting exchanges In order to use the Football Trader system, you must use a betting exchange. A betting exchange is a revolutionary new way of betting; it involves betting against other people, thus bypassing the traditional bookmaker. This allows you to lay a certain outcome; basically this means betting on a horse or football team not to win. The advantage of these betting exchanges is that you can expect much better prices than you can get with a bookmaker. Another advantage is that you can now trade on various sporting events. You will pay commission on your trading profits, starting at about 5% but decreasing with your usage. The leading betting exchange is Betfair and I highly recommend using them when trading. They have now introduced Betfair Play For Fun; on this site, you can practise using the exchange without the need to use real money. The URL is: http://www.playbetfair.com/

6

Football Trader

Here is a screenshot from the Betfair site that gives a basic explanation of how the exchange works.

Betfair operations When using the systems in this book, you will be laying events and backing them. Also, at times you will need to perform two combinations of both of these. The first is when you need to cancel or reverse a trade; to do this, if you have laid an event, you need to back it for the same money. If the event loses, you neither gain nor lose any money. If the event wins, depending on the odds of the two bets, you may gain or lose money. The second is when you arb a trade; having laid an event, you then back the event when the odds have risen. By backing for the right amount, you can make a profit on the trade, regardless of the outcome of the event.

7

What is the football system?

The Football Trader consists of two unique betting systems, Systems 1 and 2, based on proven statistics and types of betting structure; the strategies are built around proven trading techniques that are applied to football betting. The Football Trader produces a profit around 85% of the time. By betting on certain outcomes we aim to capture a guaranteed profit by placing other related bets. For example, we lay a selection then back it once the price has risen to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. To do this we must trade using in-running games, in which Betfair allow betting throughout the match. Odds do not tend to move prior to Kick Off; this is why we need to be able to bet inrunning, as a goal can dramatically change the odds, giving us opportunities to trade. You can easily identify games that are in-running as they are quoted on the Betfair home page each day. They are also the games that are live on TV. This is why I recommend you watch the match whilst trading on it. By observing the game you can get a general feeling for how the game is going to turn out. This can be very important when making decisions. Another important factor is when a goal is scored; you need to know the moment a goal has been scored so you can take action on your trade, and hopefully make yourself a profit before the end of the game. Bank: The amount you win obviously depends on the size of your bank. To begin with, I suggest you use relatively small stakes until you are more confident in the system. A bank of £200 - £300 is quite sufficient to begin with. Once you start to win, your bank will soon increase, allowing you to increase your stakes, giving higher profits. You can expect a return on investment of around 20% 30% each game. This may not sound much, but compare it to a savings account which generates on average 4% per year. The Football Trader can produce 20% – 30% per day. This is quite sufficient to make a full time living.

8

System 1

(I recommend that you print this page and the next page, and keep them by you when trading until you are familiar with the concept.)

Condition In order to use this system, the favourite team must have odds lower than 1.75 to score the next goal. Anything above this would suggest a close game, which can not be traded effectively with this system. System 2 can be used with games where this condition is not satisfied. But I strongly recommend that you become completely familiar with System 1 first.

These are the markets we use on the Betfair exchange in this system: ™ Match Odds – (simple win lose or draw) ™ Next Goal – (bet on which teams will score next, or bet on no more goals) There are other markets, but we don’t use them. The basic theory for Football Trader (System 1) is this:

We place the following two bets prior to kick-off: BET 1 – Lay the outsider to win the match (Bet that the team with the highest odds will lose) This makes sense; we are betting on the most likely outcome; therefore there is a pretty good chance this will happen. BET 2 – Lay the favourite to score first (Bet that the favourite team will not score first) This might not make sense as the favourite is most likely to score first; however, we must bet against them as an insurance in case BET 1 does not go to plan.

9

Football Trader

Now sit back and watch the match. If the favourite team score first you will automatically lose your money on BET 2. However the odds for BET 1 will now have shot up; therefore you either back the outsider to win the game, leaving you with a guaranteed small profit, or you can wait to see if the favourites score again or go on to win the match, pushing the price out even further, hence increasing your profit. (Later, I will explain about what stakes to use and the calculations to be made, using real examples.) If the outsiders score first you will automatically win BET 2. You now have a couple of options. You could: a) back the outsider to win at shorter odds so that you settle for a small loss on BET 1 but still take a small profit from BET 2. (You may make a small overall loss or break even when doing this.) b) wait to see if the favourites score an equaliser, which has a good chance of happening and usually does, as they are the better of the two teams. This will give you much higher profits because you take the profit from BET 2 and also make a profit from BET 1. Obviously your decisions depend on how much time is left in the match. If there is an early goal by the outsiders, there is plenty of time left for the favourites to score. If there is a goal towards the end of the game, the odds will change more dramatically. If the score is still 0-0 by the 75th minute, you must reverse both your trades. At least one will make a profit, but usually you will make a good profit on both of your trades. (This requirement applies only to System 1.) This is just a brief description of the system, please read the rest of the e-book for a more detailed explanation using real examples; these cover everything from staking to correct timing, in a step-by-step guide.

10

Football Trader

Example 1 Arsenal v Newcastle The first example I am going to show you is a match between Arsenal v Newcastle. This was a regular Sunday afternoon game. Don’t worry if it looks confusing to begin with, everything will be explained. Let’s take a look at the two markets below prior to Kick Off. Remember we are only looking at two markets, Match Odds and Next Goal. These can be found on the left-hand side of the Betfair screen. Match Odds

As you can see, Arsenal are clear favourites to win the match, since their price is much shorter than for Newcastle to win or for the game to finish in a draw.

11

Football Trader

Next Goal

As we can see from this screenshot, Arsenal are also clear favourites to score the first goal. The odds for them to score first are below 1.75 so this qualifies as a System 1 game. (The condition is satisfied.) Tip - I recommend you check to see how much money has been traded on the game before you trade. I always wait until at least £100,000 has been matched. To see this figure, click on Rules at the top right of the Betfair screen when you are on the Match Odds market.

We now need to place the first two bets. For this example, I use £100 stakes to keep things simple.

12

Football Trader

BET 1 The first thing we must do is to lay the outsider.

I laid Newcastle for £100 and managed to get on at odds of 9. The amounts under the team names show the effects of the bet. (Don’t be put off by the liability figure under Newcastle, this will be reduced later.)

BET2 The next thing to do is to lay the favourite (Arsenal) to score the next goal.

I laid Arsenal for £100 at 1.52. Now I can sit back and watch the game. 13

Football Trader

Quick re-cap of steps 1) Identify a game where the favourite is lower than 1.75 to score first 2) Lay the outsider to win the match 3) Lay the favourite to score first I have used £100 stakes for both bets. I don’t always do this but for this example it makes things easier to explain. You must understand that BET 2, where I laid Arsenal to score first, is an insurance wager. If Newcastle were to score first, their odds would drop, leaving us with a potential loss on BET 1. However I would automatically win £100 from BET 2; this helps to recover any losses I may face. I would then reverse the trade for BET 1 to minimise my loss as much as I could. This is done by backing the outsider to win for the same amount as the lay bet. With my two bets placed I am hoping for the most likely outcome, which is Arsenal to win.

75th minute rule Before the game starts you must be aware of this rule: reverse all trades by the 75th minute. The reason for this is that the odds start to change dramatically after this time. If you have not settled your trade by this time you are exposing yourself to higher risks. Note that this requirement applies only to System 1. We are now ready to start trading on the game. After just 19 minutes, Arsenal scored the first goal to make it 1-0 as expected. This has dramatically changed the odds which are considerably different to when I placed my bet prior to Kick Off. I must now act on my trade.

14

Football Trader

As you will see from the screenshot on the next page, the odds for Newcastle to win have shot up to 38. This is a decimal odds, equivalent to 37/1. (Subtract 1 from the odds shown on Betfair to convert to a fractional odds.) You must always think of the most likely outcome and try to keep your profits on this side. Just by looking at the Betfair screen, it is obvious that the least likely outcome is a Newcastle win. And the most likely is an Arsenal win. If I simply back Newcastle for the same amount that I laid them for (£100) I will be left in the following situation: Arsenal win = £0 Newcastle win = £2900 (£3700 – the £800 from the lay bet) Draw = £0 -£52 from BET 2 As you can see, if Newcastle win I win £2900, and I lose nothing if they don’t. (Ignore the -£52 from BET 2 for a minute.) Although this looks good as we now have a free bet to win £2900, this is unlikely to happen and, as I said before, we must always look at the most likely outcomes to win money.

So what do we do now? As Newcastle’s odds are so high, there is no need to bet £100 on their winning, especially when they don’t have much chance of doing so. All I need to do here is to cover my liability on Newcastle just in case they do manage to win the game; by doing this I won’t win anything if they do win but neither will I lose anything. So now I must calculate how much I need to bet to cover my liability of £800 from BET 1. To do this I simply take the current odds on offer, which is 38; I need to convert this to a fraction simply by subtracting 1, which gives us 37/1.

15

Football Trader

I then take my liability of £800 from BET 1 and add the loss from BET 2 (-£52 because Arsenal scored first) £800 + £52 = £852 (potential loss) Divide by 38 – 1 = 37 (the odds on offer) = 852 ÷ 37

= 23

So to cover all of my losses I need to bet £23 on Newcastle winning at 38. 19 minutes Arsenal 1- 0 Newcastle

As you can now see, I have secured a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome after placing £23 on Newcastle winning.

16

Football Trader

Conclusion After just 19 minutes I have secured a guaranteed profit and can sit back and watch the rest of the game without any worries. Arsenal did go on to win the match 1-0 as expected. This means I won £76.50 from the Match Odds market and lost £52 from the Next Goal market, leaving me with a total profit of £24.50. You might not think this is a lot, but I have only used relatively small stakes, and I kept the trading strategy very simple to help you understand. Now that you have learnt the general concept of the system you can move on to more advanced techniques. I have included a few more real-life examples that illustrate exactly what I did to increase my profits. Once you are confident with this trading technique you will find many other ways of using it to make a profit. I recommend you read through the rest of the book and keep reading it until you understand everything. Another useful tip is to just watch an in-running game on Betfair; watch to see how the odds change and at what times during the game. You will soon see patterns emerging. This will give you a better understanding of the market and improve your ability to anticipate when trading.

17

Football Trader

Example 2 Watford v Liverpool This time I am using slightly higher stakes and changing them around a little to increase my profits.

I laid Watford for £200 at 5 (Match Odds). (BET 1)

I laid Liverpool to score the next goal for £150 at 1.74. (BET 2)

(I laid Liverpool for less than I did Watford; this would increase my profit should Liverpool score first.)

18

Football Trader

Half Time - Match Odds (BET 1)

As there have been no goals, the odds for our trade have risen from 5 to 5.4 because there is less chance of the event happening. So we now have an opportunity to arb our trade and settle for a small guaranteed profit at this stage. However I have decided to let the trade run until a goal is scored or I reach the 75th minute. If I were to arb now I would back Watford for £185, (less than I laid them) leaving me in the following situation. Watford win = £14 profit Liverpool win = £15 profit Draw = £15 profit. Arbing is described in more detail later. So I have a guaranteed profit of at least £14. I can now do the same with my other bet (BET 2).

19

Football Trader

Half Time - Next Goal (BET 2)

The odds for Liverpool to score the next goal have risen from 1.74 to 1.9. (you would probably get matched at 1.92 quite easily). If I were to arb now, I would back Liverpool to score the next goal for £135 at 1.92, which would leave me in the following situation: Watford score first = £15 profit Liverpool score first = £13.20 profit No Goal = £15 profit Again another guaranteed profit, this time for at least £12. So, by settling our trades at Half Time, we can guarantee at least £27.20 profit. Not bad for 45 minutes work and with no goals. It is entirely up to you if you want to arb at Half Time or carry on until the 75th minute. I make my decision depending on the situation. If Watford don’t look like scoring I will carry on; if Watford are dominating the game and look threatening I will arb at Half Time. 30% of games are 0-0 at half time. So I have decided to leave my trade and wait to see if anything happens.

20

Football Trader

The 75th minute has arrived and still no goal, so it is time to settle up and arb my trade for a profit. I managed to back Watford at 6.8 for £145 to secure a guaranteed profit. Why back them for £145? Without confusing you with formulas, the easy way to work out your arb stake is simply to enter the same amount you laid Watford for originally (£200) but this time at the new (back) odds of 6.8. Ideally we would like to guarantee ourselves the same profit regardless of the result. When backing at a higher price than you laid at, you always reduce the stake, so we need to bet less than £200. Simply enter any amount you like and then adjust it until you feel happy. Betfair will show your potential profit every time you enter a stake. Here is an example:

The pink is my original lay bet (BET 1). The blue is my new back bet to arb the trade. I have entered £175 as a rough guess. As you can see, as things stand, if Watford win, we would win £1015 but lose £800 from BET 1, which equals £215 profit. If they lose, we will win £200 from BET 1 and lose £175 from our new bet, which equals £25 profit. Watford win = £215 Watford lose = £25 These figures are not very similar; I would prefer more profit if Watford lose. So we simply change the figure from £175 to something lower.

21

Football Trader

I have now entered £145, which gives me £841 - £800 = £41 if Watford win. If Watford lose, I win £200 from BET 1 less £145 = £55. Backing Watford at £145 now leaves me in the following situation: Watford win = £41 profit Liverpool win = £55 profit Draw = £55 profit So I have arbed my trade for BET1 for a guaranteed profit of at least £41. I must now do the same with BET 2. When arbing your trade it is simply a matter of trial and error. Simply enter any amount and make adjustments until the difference between the two profit figures are similar to the difference between the two stake figures. However, if you prefer to use formulas, the arb stake can be worked out to give exactly the same profit regardless of the outcome using this formula: Back Stake = Lay Stake x (Lay Odds ÷ Back Odds) In our example, we have Back Stake = £200 x 5 ÷ 6.8 = £147.06, which will give a profit of £52.94 regardless of the outcome. You can see how close our figure of £145 was. You can do the calculation very quickly on a calculator. Alternatively, you can use one of several arbing calculators on the Internet; here are a couple of URLs: http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/SimpleArb.asp http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator.cfm

22

Football Trader

I must now settle BET 2. Previously I laid Liverpool to score first at 1.74. I must now back Liverpool to score first.

I have now backed Liverpool to score the next goal for £100 at 2.7. This has now guaranteed me £59 if they do score first and £50 if they don’t. Great! All done. I have arbed both trades from BET 1 and BET 2 and can now sit back and enjoy the remainder of the game. The match finished Watford 0 – 1 Liverpool with a 77th minute goal. Won £55 from BET 1 Won £59 from BET 2 Total Profit = £114 Another successful trade, this time without any goals; it just shows how powerful this method is. Remember, 30% of games are 0-0 at half time and, as you know, arbing at Half Time can make a decent profit.

23

Football Trader

Example 3 Chelsea v Man City Chelsea are clear favourites and their odds to score the next goal are 1.3, which qualifies this as a System 1 match. I have only used £50 stakes this time, as the odds for Man City are quite high. I managed to lay them at 13.5 for £50 (liability £625).

Chelsea are clearly favourites to win the match and to score the first goal.

I have laid Chelsea to score the next goal for £50 at 1.3 (Liability £15). I have now placed my bets and can sit back and watch the game.

24

Football Trader

After 30 minutes there are no goals and very little action; in fact I don’t think there has been a single shot on goal. The odds for Man City have shortened slightly and the odds for Chelsea to score the next goal have risen. At this stage I can not really arb for a profit.

Half Time There is not much difference at Half Time, as you can see from the screenshots below: Match Odds

Next Goal

Again not much room for profit so I will let the trade run until either there is a goal or 75 minutes have passed. 25

Football Trader

75th minute - Match Odds

As you can see I have reached the 75th minute and there have been no goals, therefore I have to reverse my trade. The price for Man City has not risen and is actually shorter at 12.5, so I can’t guarantee a profit as the price has gone against me. So what we must do in this situation is to back Man City for the same price we laid them for (£50). So I back Man City for £50 at 12.5 to leave me with a loss of £50 if Man City win and break even if they do not win. This makes sense as Man City are less likely to win anyway. If you have to reverse a trade when the price has gone against you, always use the same stake as you did originally, as in the example above. I laid at 13.5 for £50, and had to back at 12.5 which is lower, so I simply use the same stake (£50).

26

Football Trader

75th minute - Next Goal

The price for Chelsea to score the next goal has risen to 2.16; therefore I have the chance to arb for a guaranteed profit. I backed them at 2.16 for £30 which left me about £20 profit regardless of what happens. The game finished Chelsea 0 – 0 Man City, which meant that I broke even on the Match Odds market and was £20 up from the Next Goal market. Draw = £0.00 No goal = £20 Total profit = £20 Another successful trade using only small stakes of £50. The point I am trying to get across with this example is that if one of your trades goes against you, you still have a good chance of not losing anything. Man City’s odds shortened, which went against us, but for us to make a loss, Man City would have had to win the game, and there wasn’t much chance of that happening.

27

Football Trader

Example 4 Man City V Man Utd This time I have used £100 stakes for both BET 1 and BET 2. I have laid Man City for £100 at 5.9 to win the match; I have also laid Man Utd to score the next goal at 1.65 for £100 (£65 Liability). Prior to Kick Off – Match Odds

Prior to Kick Off – Next Goal

I have placed my bets and now I sit back and watch the game. Half Time score is 0-0. I could arb the trade at this stage but Man City’s odds have not drifted, therefore I have decided to wait a while. 28

Football Trader

After 68mins Man Utd scores the first goal and I now have to settle the trade. As there are only 22 minutes left, Man City’s odds have risen to 50, which gives us a great chance to make a profit. I arbed my trade at this point, backing Man City for £12 at 50 to give me £588 if they win, minus £490 liability from the original bet, equals £98 profit. If Man City lose or draw, I win £100 from the original BET 1, minus £12 from the new bet, equals £88 profit. (The reason I have backed Man City for £12 is because this is a sufficient amount to cover my liability and make a good profit if they win or draw. As their odds are 50, it only costs me £2 to make £100.) Man City 0 – 1 Man Utd

As you can see I have made a guaranteed profit on the Match Odds market. The game finished Man City 0 – 2 Man Utd Won £88 from BET 1 Lost -£65 from BET 2 Total profit = £23 Profit

29

Football Trader

When things go against you Sometimes your trade will not go as planned; for example, the team that you have laid to win the match will score first and their odds will shorten, leaving you with a potential loss. So what do you do? This depends on several factors and you will have to use your judgement to decide what is best. Let’s take the last example I showed you between Man City and Man Utd. If Man City were to score first we could be in trouble. The first thing to take into account is: How much of the game is left? The more time there is remaining, the more chance Man Utd have of equalizing. If Man City score before 25 minutes, I would usually wait until Man Utd score, or you reach the 75th minute. How is the game going? This is why I recommend you watch the match whilst trading on it; when a trade goes against you, you must make judgements. If Man City are playing well, have had a few opportunities and are leading 1-0, I would suggest you reverse your trade to favour Man City. If Man City have only had one shot and scored, and Man Utd have had a few shots and are playing much better, I would suggest waiting a while to see if they equalize, which they probably will. Which type of game is it? It is important to understand what kind of match you are trading on. Is it a friendly, a cup final, a top-of-the-table clash, a relegation clash, etc., etc.? The following section describes the different types of games and what they mean to us when trading.

30

Football Trader

Different types of matches Here are details of the different games you will encounter. Study this list a few times until it is in your head; you will probably know most of this anyway but please don’t skip this section. Premiership game: top v middle or bottom teams The most common type of game you will be trading on is a Premiership match that involves a top-of-the-table team against one at the bottom of the table. For example, Liverpool v Bolton, Arsenal v Everton, Newcastle v Wigan. This is the type of game you will be trading in, as the favourite is likely to have odds lower than 1.75 to score first. You should expect the odds to reflect the outcome when trading in these games. This is probably one of the best types of game to trade in. Expect the favourite to score first and to win the game. Premiership game between two average teams This is another common type of match that you will see quite regularly. For example, Newcastle v Everton, Spurs v Aston Villa, Man City v Blackburn. You should be looking at a close game, with maybe few goals and a likely draw. You will not be able to trade on these games using System 1 as the odds for both teams will be about the same; therefore System 1 will not qualify. However, this kind of game is ideal for System 2, which will be explained later. English Championship, Leagues 1 and 2 Unlike the Premiership, the lower leagues do not have superior teams like Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd, who dominate. The leagues are much more open and can be more difficult to predict. You can expect a lot of varied results such as lower-positioned teams beating the higher teams. When trading in this type of game you should always be cautious and be ready for any sudden changes that may happen.

31

Football Trader

Local derbys This is where two local teams play each other. It is important to understand that this kind of game is unlike a normal game. When two local teams meet you should expect a close game with not many goals. Both sides are under immense pressure to please their fans and no one wants to lose. There will probably be a few bookings and sending-offs. Expect low-scoring games and plenty of draws. If a team scores I would recommend reversing your trade straight away. International games There are two types of international matches: 1) Friendly – I normally stay away from international friendly games because usually the players are not 100% committed, as they do not want to run the risk of injury. Also, friendly games are used to test out new players and strategies, etc. Therefore this type of game can be misleading. 2) Competitive match – This may be a tournament or qualifying game where both teams must win. There is a lot of build-up to these games and the odds are usually a true reflection of the outcome. I would treat this game as you would a Premiership match, but be aware of the conditions when teams are playing away; for example, Mexico v England. The climate will be much hotter in Mexico and England will not be used to the conditions. Cup games With the FA Cup you will usually find plenty of opportunities to trade, as higher teams play against teams much lower than themselves. The FA Cup can produce a few shock results and I would suggest you are always prepared in case something does not go as you planned.

32

Football Trader

Other factors An important factor to take into account is to determine what stage of the league or cup the teams are currently at. For example, if Aston Villa are 3rd from bottom with only a few games remaining, they are going to be more determined than a team that are in mid position and have nothing to play for. If Man Utd are playing in the 3rd round of the FA cup against a non-league team, are Man Utd going to play their reserve team? There are many questions that you must ask yourself before a game and the more you practice, the more aware you will become.

The next section relates to games that do not qualify as System 1 bets. I recommend that you fully understand System 1 before moving on to System 2.

33

System 2

This system works well when the two teams playing are closely matched. With System 1, the favourite had to have odds lower than 1.75 to score the next goal. However not all games are like this. You can use System 2 when the odds for the favourite to score first are over 1.75. Most of the time, both teams will have odds of around 2 to score the next goal; this suggests a tight game where either side has a good chance of winning. As this is the case you must take more care when trading using this strategy. So the first thing to do is to check the odds in the Next Goal market. If both teams are above 1.75 we can use System 2. The theory behind System 2 is that the home team has a slight advantage over the away team. Although the odds for both teams to score first and to win the game are the same, there is usually more chance of the home side doing so. Sometimes the odds for the away team can be slightly shorter than the home team. If this is the case we must go with the most likely outcome as I mentioned before. Which would be to favour the away team, as their odds are shorter, which represents a better chance of winning. 42% of home teams win on average.

34

Football Trader

In System 2, we only use the Match Odds market on Betfair. I recommend you only use this system once you are confident with trading football matches and you are confident using System 1. 1) BET 1 The first step is to lay the outsider (or away team if the odds are the same) 2) BET 2 The second step is to lay the draw So basically we are betting that the outsider will not win. We are also betting that it will not be a draw. If the favourite team wins, which is most likely to happen, we win both bets. If it’s a draw, we still win BET 1 but lose BET 2. If the outsiders win, we lose BET 1 but win BET 2. There are many different opportunities that arise when using this trade. The difference between System 1 and System 2 is that the odds when using System 1 always move in your favour if there are no goals; however, the odds using System 2 don’t. If there are no goals, the odds for BET 1 will increase and the odds for BET 2 will shorten. This is why we must be careful when using this trade. By applying this method we are hoping that the favourite team will score first so that we can arb our trade for a guaranteed profit. If there are no goals we can break even or make a small profit. If the outsiders score first we are left in a negative situation which would require using retrieval strategies. I explain more about this later. If the outsider does score first their odds will shorten which is not a good sign for us; however the odds for the draw will increase, giving us the chance to arb for a profit. Ideally this is how you should approach the game. (Always remember the golden rule: ‘Always side with the most likely outcome at the time’)

35

Football Trader

Strategy If the game proceeds with little action and no goals, the most likely outcome would be the draw, so you must reverse your trade by backing the draw at the available odds. Don’t worry if you have to suffer a small loss. Now that you have completed your trade on the draw (BET 2) you must now let BET 1 run until the odds have risen enough to make a profit. There is a pretty good chance that this will happen, because the game doesn’t look like producing goals, and the outsider has less chance of scoring anyway. The time at which you reverse BET 2 (the draw) is entirely up to you. I usually reverse at 30 minutes if the game is poor and I feel no one is going to score for a while. I then wait until Half Time to arb my other trade (BET 1). Obviously, the longer you leave it the shorter the draw price will become. If you reverse the draw trade (BET 2) and then the outsiders score, you will be faced with an all-round potential loss. You now have to decide whether to wait and hope that the favourites equalize, or apply a different strategy to recover your losses. (I will be demonstrating such strategies in the examples.) The other scenario you may be faced with is that the outsider scores first. If this happens their price will shorten, however the draw price will not rise that much. Therefore you will not be able to secure a profit. So what do you do? Apply the golden rule and side with the most likely outcome at the time, which is for the outsider to win. So we must follow the same process I have just explained, except that this time you reverse the trade for BET 1 and back the outsider to settle for a loss, and then wait until the draw price rises to an acceptable amount where you can arb BET 2. It may sound confusing to begin with but it is quite simple. Always remember the golden rule – side with the most likely outcome at the time.

36

Football Trader

Here is a quick example: Let’s say there is a game between Arsenal v Man Utd. 1) Man Utd are the outsiders so we lay them (BET 1) 2) We also lay the draw (BET 2 ) Suppose that after 30 minutes of the game, there have not been many shots and neither team look like scoring. This tells us that the most likely outcome as things stand would be a draw. The price for the draw will keep shortening as the game goes on, and we don’t want this to happen as we have already laid it at a higher price. We decide to get out now for a small loss before it gets any shorter. So we reverse the draw lay (BET 2). We now wait until the price for Man Utd (BET 1) rises to give us a profit. Now let’s say the game started and there was plenty of action and Man Utd scored a goal. If the goal was before Half Time I would recommend you wait, as the prices will stay quite static until the 75th minute or later. If it is after Half Time, we must reverse our trade for BET 1 and back them before their price shortens even more. (I usually back them for twice the amount I laid them for to reduce my losses if they were to win). We now wait until the draw odds increase to give us a profit. If the outsiders do score first you will find it very difficult to come out of the game with a profit because the draw price will not actually move very much unless Man Utd score a second goal. If Arsenal were to score first (the most likely possibility) we would be able to arb both trades (BET 1 and BET 2 ) for a guaranteed profit.

37

Football Trader

Example 1 Sheff Utd v Aston Villa

As you can see I have applied BET 1 and BET 2. BET 1 - I have laid the outsider (Sheff Utd) at 3.4 for £100 (£240 liability) BET 2 - I have laid the draw at 3.4 for £100 (£240 Liability) I am now in the following situation: Sheff Utd win = -£140 Aston Villa win = £200 Draw = -£140 Basically you are betting on Aston Villa winning. If you are only used to betting on horses, a quick word of explanation may be welcome here. When you lay Sheff Utd for £100, the other two outcomes are affected as well. So the position after BET 1 only is: Sheff Utd win = -£240 Aston Villa win = £100 Draw = £100

38

Football Trader

Similarly, BET 2, the lay on the draw for £100, affects all three outcomes: Sheff Utd win = £100 Aston Villa win = £100 Draw = -£240 The final position is arrived at by adding these two sets of results. 30 minutes

No goals after 30 minutes but Sheff Utd are playing well and the price for the draw has shortened slightly. There have been lots of opportunities and both teams look like scoring, so I decide to wait a while, as I am confident there will be at least one goal in this game. Just after Half Time, Aston Villa score the first goal; I must now arb my trade. As the trade has gone in my favour there is no need to arb both trades; I can simply place one bet to cover all angles. As things stand we win £200 if Aston Villa win, and lose £140 if they do not win. Now that they have scored, their odds have shortened dramatically.

39

Football Trader

All you need to do is to see if you can wipe out your liability without betting more than £200 (which is your current profit). To do this, simply click the available odds to lay Aston Villa, which are 1.45, and type in the amount you currently stand to lose, which is £140. This will then show you how much you need to bet to win back your £140. By laying Aston Villa for £140 at 1.45 it will cost us £63 off our current profit of £200. This would leave us in the following situation: Sheff Utd win = £0 Aston Villa win = £200 - £63 = £137 Draw = £0 Not bad really, we either win £137 or break even. If you do not understand, don’t worry, read through it again a couple of times; open your Betfair screen and type in the figures that I mentioned. It is all relatively simple once you understand the concept. I decided to bet more than £140 just in case Sheff Utd did win, or it was a draw. This way I am guaranteed a profit all round. I recommend that you always leave yourself with a small profit in case the losing team scores and goes on to win the match. As you can see below, I decided to Lay Aston Villa for £160, costing me £72.

40

Football Trader

I am now left with £128 profit as it has cost me £72 to clear my liability and add a small profit of £20 to Sheff Utd, and to the draw. (£200 original profit minus £72 to cover liability = £128.) I am now left with a guaranteed profit, and there is a good chance of making £128 as Aston Villa are winning. Unfortunately Sheff Utd turned the game around and won 3-1. I still made a profit of £20 however.

Quick re-cap Laid the outsider (Sheff Utd) Laid the draw Left with £200 if Aston Villa win and -£140 if they do not win. Aston Villa score Reverse the trade to wipe out our potential loss of -£140 + another £20 just in case Aston Villa do not win. Left with: Sheff Utd = £20 Aston Villa = £128 Draw = £20 Unfortunately Sheff Utd go on to win the game, but we still pick up £20 profit.

41

Football Trader

Example 2 Arsenal V Man Utd A tight game on paper with Arsenal slight favourites at 2.5. Following the system, I have laid Man Utd for £100 at 3.45 as they are the outsiders. I have also laid the draw for £100 at 3.25.

As you can see I currently have £200 profit on Arsenal, -£145 on Man Utd and -£125 on the draw. I now sit back and watch the game. After just 8 minutes Arsenal score and go 1-0 up. This gives me a chance to arb my trades for a profit. (Remember you have £200 to spend on recovering your liability). I decided to back Man Utd for £40 and back the draw for £70. This leaves me with roughly the same profit whatever the result. (Remember that when arbing a trade, enter a random figure and then adjust it until the profits are about the same.)

42

Football Trader

Here is the resulting position:

That’s it, all done!! As you can see, I am left in this situation: Arsenal win = £90.11 Man Utd win = £89.59 Draw = £79.30 You would have been pleased to trade this game as I was done and dusted after 8 minutes with a guaranteed profit of at least £79.30. I can now sit and enjoy watching the rest of the match. Surprisingly the score finished Arsenal 2 - 4 Man Utd. I still managed to take an easy £89.59 from the game. Easy money.

43

Football Trader

When things go wrong and the trade goes against you Although you will win on most occasions, unfortunately there are times when a trade will go against you and you face a potential loss. It is very important that you understand the retrieval strategies to use when things do go wrong. Our main aim is to reduce our loss as much as possible and leave the match without damaging our bank. Before I take you through the steps to retrieve your losses, have a look at this next example where the trade goes against us. Liverpool V Man Utd Liverpool were favourites to win the game prior to Kick Off, so I laid Man Utd (BET 1) and I laid the draw (BET 2).

I have laid Man Utd for £100 at 3.25 as they are the outsiders. I have laid the draw for £100 at 3.2. Ideally we want Liverpool to score the first goal. If Man Utd score first their price will shorten, which is not good for us.

44

Football Trader

After 21 minutes Man Utd score the first goal and their price has shortened to 1.75, which is not good news as we want it to be higher than 3.25 to make a profit.

What to do? Remember the golden rule! (Always side with the most likely outcome at the time.) As things stand the most likely outcomes in order are: 1) Man Utd win 2) Draw 3) Liverpool win How do we know this? Simply look at the odds to win the match. 1) Man Utd are 1.75 2) Draw is 3.7 3) Liverpool are 6 Man Utd has the shortest odds therefore they have the best chance of winning. The draw has the second best odds therefore it is the second most likely outcome. But as things stand my £200 profit is on the least likely outcome (Liverpool win), and my biggest loss is on Man Utd win (which is the most likely outcome). 1) Liverpool win = £200 2) Draw = -£120 3) Man Utd win = -£125 As you can see, this table does not match with the one above. I am not happy with this situation and set about changing it. Remember you have £200 to spend to reduce your liability as this is your profit figure under Liverpool – spend wisely.

45

Football Trader

Here’s what I did Basically I wanted Liverpool to score first. They didn’t, so I turned things around by putting a profit on Man Utd winning and a loss on Liverpool winning as they are currently losing the match. The first thing I did was to spend all of my £200 profit on laying Liverpool. So I laid Liverpool for £200 liability at odds of 6, which added £40 to Man Utd and the draw. This left me in the following situation: 1) Liverpool win = £0 2) Draw = -£80 3) Man Utd win = -£85 As you can see, I cannot make a profit at this stage and the golden rule does not match. The most likely outcome is a Man Utd win but this is my highest loss (-£85). I must now turn things around so that my profit/loss favours the most likely outcomes. So the next thing to do is to lay Liverpool again at 6 as they are least likely to win. I decided on £100 liability to add another £20 on both Man Utd and the draw. This left me in the following situation: 1) Draw = -£60 2) Man Utd win = -£65 3) Liverpool win = -£100 I am still not happy with the current situation as I am still facing a guaranteed loss. I need my most likely outcome, which is Man Utd, to show me a profit.

46

Football Trader

So the next thing I did was to back Man Utd for £100 at 1.75 to leave me with this situation:

I now have my golden rule in line with my profit/loss figures. As things stand the most likely outcomes in order are: 1) Man Utd win 2) Draw 3) Liverpool win My profit/loss figures are also in the same order: 1) Man Utd win = £10 2) Draw = -£130 3) Liverpool win = -£200 As you can see I have turned things around so that I now have a liability of -£200 on Liverpool (because this is the least likely outcome). I have -£130 on the draw as this is the second most likely outcome. I have £10 on Man Utd as this is the most likely outcome. For me to lose money on this game Liverpool need to win or draw. Although this situation is not ideal, as we are facing a potential loss, it is much better than before. We could have lost £125 on Man Utd, but now we win £10 on Man Utd.

47

Football Trader

To reduce your liability even more you could consider using your £10 profit to back the draw as the price increases. Unfortunately the draw price did not increase during this game until around the 80th minute. So I decided to leave things as they were. Man Utd went on to win the game 1-0 and I took a £10 profit from the game. Here is a quick re-cap on how to deal with a trade that goes against you. 1) Lay the team that is losing for the same amount you have on them as potential profit. For example, in this match, lay Liverpool for £200 (you must remember that when laying the £200, you must enter this figure as your liability, not how much you stand to win). 2) Lay Liverpool again as they are least likely to win. This time for half of the original profit figure (£200). So lay £100. 3) Check the golden rule and see if the most likely outcomes match with your current profit/loss figures. 4) Back the most likely outcome for £100, which is Man Utd winning. 5) Check the golden rule. Please read the last section again if you are unsure about anything – this is very important. Always remember the golden rule; as long as you have this in place you will be OK.

48

Conclusion You have now read the strategies that I use to make money on live football games; I believe this to be the most reliable and easiest way to profit from the betting exchanges. I recommend that you use small stakes to begin with until you have built your confidence and are able to react to any situation without having to pick up this book. By visiting Betfair, you will be able to see what live games are being played on that day. I recommend that you check every morning and make a note of the games and the times. Unlike other betting guides, this is not a set system. Although there are rules to follow, you must make judgements and use various strategies at different times. If you can learn to adjust you will become a successful trader; confidence and ability will come with experience. I recommend that you watch a few live games and keep a note of the price movements on Betfair. Soon you will know exactly how the prices will change when there is a goal, or no goal for that matter. Once you can easily understand what is happening and can calculate your arbing stakes within a few seconds, you are ready to start trading for real money. Take your time, learn the strategy and apply the rules, prepare well and have confidence. If you can do this you are well on your way.

Good luck!

49