Footbal Trading System Darren Duckworth

LEGAL NOTICE Disclaimer and Terms of Use Agreement. The author and publisher of this manual and the accompanying materials have used their best efforts in preparing this manual. The author and publisher make no representation 1 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness or completeness of this manual. The information in this manual is strictly for educational purposes. Therefore if you wish to apply the ideas contained in this manual, you are taking full responsibility for your actions. EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THIS PRODUCT AND IT’S POTENTIAL. Even though this industry is one of the few where one can write their own cheque in terms of earnings, there is no guarantee that you will earn money using the techniques and ideas in this material. Earning potential is entirely dependant on the person using this manual, ideas and techniques. This is not purported as a “get rich quick” scheme. Your level of success depends on the time you devote to the techniques suggested. I cannot guarantee your success or income level, nor am I responsible for any of your actions. Many factors will be important in determining your actual results and no guarantees are made that you will achieve results similar to mine or anybody else’s. In fact no guarantees are made that you will achieve any results from the ideas and techniques in this material. The author and publisher disclaim any warranties (express or implied), merchantability, or fitness for any particular purpose. The author and publisher shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, incicental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties. This manual is © copyrighted by Darren Duckworth/ FootballTradeSystem. No part of this manual may be copied or changed in any format, sold, or used in any other way than what is outlined in this manual under any circumstances.

© Darren Duckworth, Football Trade System. All Rights Reserved.

FOOTBALL TRADING SYSTEM RULES 1. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline. You must have this quality in abundance. Any form of gambling involves 2 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

emotion. I used to suffer mood swings when I lost and then that would effect my judgement on further transactions. I now control what I do within strict guidelines. You will at some time experience a down swing, it is part and parcel, keep motivated keep repeating and you will be successful. 2. Stick to what we know. I have spent years trialing this system and now use it as enclosed. I only trade on football. You may think you can apply these methods to other types of sport. My advice is don’t. I started gambling on football years ago and this manual is the result of thousands of transactions. If you follow football, emotion must get out of the window, I am a season ticket holder at a premiership club, however if I can make money from a result including them which I don’t like, so be it. Football now accounts for more gambling income in the UK than any other sport. Most of these gamblers bet with opinion and emotion, it is there money you will be taking. We cannot have any opinion on the outcome of a match at all. 3. Start at a level you can afford. When promises of large incomes are made it is easy to try and short circuit things to get there quicker. You are looking for a lifetime changing income. I do this for quality of life as much as money. I want to be able to spend time doing things other than working. However it took me time to get here as it will you. Start at a level you are comfortable with and build up using other peoples money.

LET’S GET STARTED Ok I have made some bold statements now it is time to get you into action. As I said in effect you are going to become a bookmaker, trading on one outcome, and one outcome of a football match only, irrelevant of the teams playing. Over the last 8 years only 22% of the worlds 3 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

football matches have ended in draws, therefore 78% have ended in wins for one team. Of the 22% that ended in draws only 7% have ended in goalless or 0-0 (nil nil) draws. I apologise if I repeat myself but there may be people reading this who know absolutely nothing about football so I am going to explain things very simply, if you are aware of all the terminology please bear with me. The system I operate basically looks at a way to make money on the 93% of matches that don’t end goalless. If a match does I will lose but I will show you a way around this so that you don’t lose much at all. We are going to make you a bookmaker that offers the draw and then makes money when the goals go in.

STEP 1 – LOCATING OUR MARKET The first thing we need to do is go to on FOOTBALL

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When you click this a new screen will appear and we will select the day’s in-play coupons. It is vital that you select In-Play games only. We want to be able to trade when the match is live so we will need to note kick off times etc. And only pick games that haven’t yet started! Do not ignore the importance of this.

So you can see from the above figure I have selected an in play coupon for Tuesday’s matches.

This will present the following screen:-

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Here you can see a list of matches predominantly with teams I have never heard of. The most important part of this screen is the three columns to the right of the teams that contain figures. You will see the headings at the top that contain the only three possible outcomes for the games. HOME – The home team (the first team listed on the left) can win. You will see a Back column with Blue Numbers and a Lay column with Pink Numbers. If we thought the Home team would win we would click the back square, that means we want to back them to win, if we thought they would not win we would click the lay square. By clicking this square we would have either the draw or the away team winning in our favour but lose our money if the home team won. 6 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

DRAW – Here we have the 2 outcomes we can back the draw if we felt that was how the match will finish or lay the draw if we felt that one of the two teams was going to win the game. THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL CONDUCT ALL OF YOUR BUSINESS. AWAY – The away team (the second team listed on the right) can win. Just the same as the outcome for Home matches, we shall be ignoring both the home and away columns. Now we have to understand what the numbers in the square means. As you can see they are listed as decimal numbers. If we take one of the matches we can look in more detail

Here we see the top match with the three outcomes and the numbers. You will also note the kick off time listed below the match, so this match kicks of at 2.30 pm English time. The numbers for the draw are back at 3.6 and lay 3.65. So if I thought this match was going to end in a draw I would click the blue back button and could stake £2 (the minimum amount Betfair allow). If I was successful I would get 2.6 times my stake back and my stake on top so 7 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

Betfair will then deduct a small commission off this, which is how they make their money. They only take commission on the profit not your initial stake THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT. If I was going to lay the draw, so I felt the game would have a result I would click the 3.65 pink lay square. This now means that I am offering another Betfair user odds of that the match will not be a draw. If I selected a £10 stake and the match was a draw I would have to pay that user 10 x 2.65 = 26.50. If however one of the teams wins the game I receive his £10 less the small commission. What you must note here is that I am in a position that I can lose or pay out more than I can win. This is the price you have to pay to have the fact that 78% of games end in a definitive result.

STEP 3 – Placing our initial trade

We are now in a position to place our initial trade. The selection of matches we would trade on is simple. We are going to trade in games in which the lay figure for the draw is 4.2 or less. Therefore we are only prepared to risk 3.2 x the amount of money we want to win. It has taken a long time for me to get to this exact figure and it proves most profitable. It is very easy to see a top side such as Chelsea playing a lower league side where obviously all the statistics point at a Chelsea win. The draw figures in such a game may be as high as 9.0. We know in our hearts that the likelihood is a Chelsea win but anything can happen in football and if that lower league side equalises in the second half with a penalty, I do not want to be risking 8 times my money which is what a lay figure of 9.0 equates to. This is where discipline comes in. 8 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

So if we go back to our matches on the In Play coupon and look for matches that haven’t started with odds of lower than 4.2.

And 7 out of 11 fit the criteria. The top 5 wouldn’t qualify as they have already started. Now the likelihood is I don’t want to trade all six I might only want to trade 4 so I would select the 4 lowest of the 10. So I would be looking to trade on matches 8, 10,11,12. The match 14 wouldn’t be chosen because it has the same odds as match 8 but is later.

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I would now click on each of these buttons in turn.

So here I have clicked the El Harby match and entered £300 in as my stake. In the box that pops up on the right hand side of the page. You can see my liability, if I just left my bet the liability (amount I could lose) would be £720 I would have to give someone £720 if the match did end as a draw and I receive £300 if the result is anything other than a draw. If I was happy with this I would then click submit at the bottom. I then repeat this process for the next 3 games. A vital point to note is that you have to have the money available in your account when placing your trade, to pay should it not work out. That means I have to have the £720 available in my account to pay if I get it wrong, so if you are trading multiple matches be aware that this is the case. So if starting out you just traded this match and were looking to win £20 from this trade you must have about £40 available in your account. Once I have placed all my initial trades I then sit and wait for kick off times. I generally look at the In-Play coupon first thing in the morning and most English mid-week games are evening kick offs so I have the day to do as I please. If you 10 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

operate this when on holiday etc. just pay attention to the kick off times.

STEP 4 – IN-PLAY TRADING This is now the nuts and bolts of making money. We do not want to place our trades and then sit and hope that the result goes our way. By trading in play we can control our destiny. Once the game kicks off the figures in the boxes will change. If no goals are scored the price for the draw will come down, that means the two figures will go lower so if we take the match we are concentrating on whilst I write this manual when we first looked at it and placed the bet, it was 3.4 to lay the draw, when I got to 20 minutes it had come down to 2.98 and now at nearly half time it is 2.78 (you will have to take my word for this). When something happens in the game the market will suspend automatically. This happens when a goal is scored, a penalty is awarded or a player is sent off. All these factors can affect the outcome of the game and therefore affect the prices that are available. If the home team scores the likelihood of a draw becomes less so the price for the draw will generally increase. It is here that we can now look to make our money. When the suspended market returns the on screen prices will vary and what we do now is wait for the prices to go in our favour so we can secure a market in which we cannot lose. I want to back the draw at a greater price than I layed it- Period. Here is an example of a favourable game. If you look at the graphic below and notice the price I have circled. Before it started, the for odds for a back for a draw was 3.9 and a lay against a draw in this game was 4.1. By the 15th minute it went down to 3.6 and 3.75 as you can see below. 11 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

Underneath you can now see that the price for the draw in the same game is 15.5 in the back column and 19.2 in the lay column as the score is 2-0 at half time. Compare this to our prices before the games kicked off…

This is where I can now make money. If I lay the draw before the game at 4.1 I can now back the draw at 15.5 and win the trade whatever the result of the game. Here is the example. Lay the draw at 4.1 to win £100 say.

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So here I am going to win £100 ( less Betfairs commission) if the game is not a draw but I am risking £310 if it is a draw. 3.1x100 = 275 However I can now back the draw myself at 15.5 or 14.5-1 in true betting terms. I will back the draw for £30. Now whatever happens I cannot lose. If the match ends in a draw I have backed it at 15.5 or 14.5-1 for £50 meaning I get 14.50 x £30 profit = £435 but lose £310 on my initial lay transaction leaving me £125 profit. If the match is not a draw I get my £100 lay from my initial bet less my £30 for backing the draw = £70 profit. I suggest you read through this a few times to get the full grasp of it. Now as it happens this price changed as two goals were scored by Rotherham, you can see that the low numbers in the back and lay prices for the home team make them clear favourites. In this instance I would leave my initial bet and just take the £100 win as I believe its unlikely that Bradford will equalise . The more you use the system the more you will learn when to trade off. I suggest you start off by trading back as soon as possible until you have built a bank up and can be a bit more risky. As you can see if I repeat this process over 4/5 games a day every day I can earn a tidy sum. Even nicking £20 a time would give you £700 a week extra in your pocket. A little and often is how to start. When you have a bank you can play less but use bigger stakes. I would in real terms probably have layed that game for £400-£500 and backed it back for £100 - £200 returning a profit of about £300 either way the result went.

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How do I decide how much to stake when I back?

This is simple process. When you make your lay bet initially note your liability, so in the last example it was £290 if the match ended in a draw. What I do first is find my break even figure The draw is available to back at 10.0 or 9-1. I divide my liability by this price so £290 divided by 9 = £33 in round figures. So if I back the draw at 10.0 for £33 I will break even. I then put a smallish amount on top of this to show a profit whatever the result, REMEMBERING IT MUST COME OFF MY INITIAL LAY BET. This process is basically that I repeat time and time again. Now we have to deal with the one outcome which can cause us problems. What if NO GOALS are scored Clearly in this case the match is ending in a nil - nil draw. We have layed the draw and the lack of a goal will mean that the prices will not change so we cannot back at a bigger price to make money.

Firstly don’t panic. Remember in the introduction I told you only 5% of all matches have had a 0-0 result in the last 8 years. Of all the Premiership matches played in January 2013 only 3 ended 0-0. Football is a game of goals, and as you can see from the above in just one Monday evening coupon the opportunity to win money far outweighs the odd 0-0 draw. This is why we operate In-Play. If the match looks like ending 0-0 we can still back the draw but at a smaller price than we layed but this will limit our losses. 14 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

Now this is a rare occurrence because of my 95% cushion that a goal will be scored. The advice of don’t panic is the best I can give you. If you follow the above you cannot fail to make money. As an example here is roughly how I started to build my bank up so that you can get an idea of where to start and how soon you can make decent money. I suggest a deposit of £500 into Betfair if you have it if not don’t worry just deposit what you can afford and stake accordingly. Initially look to lay for £20, if you do this successfully 20 times you have earnt £400 less Betfair commission and money used to stake back so you should have about £300 profit, so your bank of £500 is now £800 Now up you lay stake to £30 and again repeat 20 times giving you a further £600 less the deductions say about £450 and a bank of £1250. Now up your lay stake to £40 and you only need 10 trades giving you a further £400 (£300 after deductions) Bank now £1550. Now upto £50 and again 10 trades should produce about £380 net profit and a bank of nearly £2000. Now up to £75 and a further 10 trades. By now your bank should be near the £2600 mark and you can up your stake to £100 and trade a bit less say 10 a week for a few weeks. Once you get you bank upto £5000 you can start trading at £150 to £200. Believe me this does not take long. I now trade about 1012 games a week at £300-£500 a time.

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The secret is to start small, get proficient at working out the numbers and increase your stake gradually whilst getting involved in less action. Points to Note

Firstly you do not need to know anything about football, I do not know anything about half the teams I trade on I work solely on the numbers in front of me. I trade all year round as Betfair now cover worldwide soccer. In the summer you can switch to either a major championship such as the World Cup or AustralDarrensoccer Secondly do not follow this system by relying on the radio or the television to get your information regarding goals etc. You need to be alert to the numbers on the screen. Both TV and Radio broadcasts are a few seconds behind realtime. Betfair will suspend immediately a goal is scored although you have not seen it on you television yet. Use a broad band connection and follow your Betfair screen for developments. This does not mean you have to stay glued to it, just have it handy and be alert. Football is over 90 minutes so you have plenty of time. I mentioned at the start I have a Victor Chandler account. They offer some in-play football. I NEVER LAY WITH THEM. I always lay on Betfair, however I may back with Victor Chandler. It may pay to have their football betting open in a separate explorer tab so that you can check their prices, Betfair may be offering 8.0 (7-1) whilst VC are offering 8-1. A point like this now and then makes a huge difference to your profits. I recommend starting by paper trading, just follow a few games and imagine you had money involved. Write down what you would lay at, what you back at and see the results. One thing you will learn is not too be too hasty when backing. Quite often the price will increase greatly 16 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

over a few minutes. For example if you look at the graphic on page 16 which features the Grenoble game, you will see on the right where I was getting prepared to back the draw at 11.0. I waited and in just 4 minutes it was up to 60.0. Whilst there is the fear that a goal may be scored and your chance may be gone, my experience tells me this is rarely the case and just waiting a minute or so can make all the difference. Also whilst paper trading have your Betfair screen open and navigate your way around it by clicking on the appropriate buttons but never submitting your bets. This way when you start you will be ready to fire on all cylinders. If you want to follow the scores of games you can by going on the Homepage of Victorchandler.com. 2/3 of the way down on the left hand side is a Football results button. If you click this you will have a new window open. In here you can select Live Scores from all over the world and keep an eye on what is going on. All that is left for me to say is good luck with it. Do not sit and do nothing, you have purchased this to make money so put it to use, if you are unsure mail me. I cannot guarantee your success but hopefully you have seen what is possible. You still however have to put a bit of work in yourself. My biggest pieces of advice to you are Don’t get Greedy Stay Disciplined Don’t Panic. I truly wish you all the best, if you make a fortune and want to take me to Vegas feel free. 17 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

And finally for those of you who are unsure a quick clarifying of two terms which will control, your life Back – when you think something is going to happen you back it. So backing the draw means you want a draw Lay – when you think something is not going to happen you lay it. So laying the draw means you don’t want to see a draw.

Good Luck.

\tÇ XÜá~|Çx Darren Duckworth. P.S I suggest you read this 2 or 3 times to familiarise your self with it

FAQ – Updated section inspired by the users of his manual! I never realised the effect of selling this ebook to a few people would have and I have met some lovely people online all of whom are using this to make money. I have tried below to cover more information and will look to do this 2 or 3 times a year to provide a better service for you 18 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

all. I have not placed the queries in any particular order but as they have sprung in my head. Also I apologise if the English is not great I am no author, I am a TRADER.

Firstly I want to give some statistics from the 2006/2013 season that has just finished. English Premier League 380 games played 32 0-0 draws = 8.42% Spanish La Liga 380 games played 37 0-0 draws = 9.73% German Bundesliga 306 games played 23 0-0 draws = 7.5% Italy Ligue 1 380 games played 34 0-0 draws = 8.94%

As you can see I have highlighted the 4 biggest European Leagues and over 1400 games of football in which a total of only 8.71% of the games finished 0-0. This percentage never varies from year to year or league to league (if anything it is lower, worldwide nearer 6%), I hear people say “oh Italians they have loads of 0-0 draws” it is rubbish all the major leagues in the world throw out the same ratio. I can tell you the figures for 1-1 draws are similar so a maximum total of about 17% of games end 0-0 and 1-1. If the result is 0-0 we lose our money (but we have traded some out to reduce the loss). If the game is a score draw we lose if the goals come at an awkward time, so if they 19 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

did that half the time (which is unlikely) that is still only about 12% losing results. The figures for 2-2 and 3-3 are negligible and far less likely to be a problem as the trading out opportunities increase. So what does the above tell me, it tells me that LONG TERM and this has become my favourite phrase, I cannot lose operating this system. In an ideal world I could lay the draw in every game and leave it and win, but we do not live in an ideal world as not every game is available and I need to be able to manage my trades IN-PLAY. This management has thrown up some scenarios over the last few months which I need to try and address and simplify for you telling you what I do in a particular circumstance. Betfair only put a selection of games IN-PLAY. Obviously in the autumn, winter and spring months we are in football season and trading opportunities are rife. In the summer months opportunities exist but are less apparent. Betfair do not have the power to put games on the coupon that they know are going to finish 0-0 or score draws, not even they are that smart, I have tried to ask them their criteria for selecting games but met with no response. This brings me onto my first FAQ Ian, how do you pick your matches? This is probably my most asked question. I select matches based on statistical odds of games I believe will end in a RESULT. By result I mean a home or away win. Now I am not a prophet and of course I will get it wrong, but I try and give myself the best chance of winning that trade. Because of my betting bank ( I leave £12,000 in Betfair at the end of each month withdrawing the profit) I can trade higher stakes on less games, thus getting the odds in my 20 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

favour. I stick by my advice in this manual of trading games under 4.2 and trading more games when starting out. However if you are going to trade a game, a little bit of research into the two teams may help you. It does not take long on Google to find all the information you need. What information is relevant? Historical information regarding the two teams, for some reason this throws up the best success rate of all. Football teams have bogey teams. As much as it pains me to say it Spurs could not beat Chelsea for 20 years and I have made 100% income from games between these two teams over the last 4 years. Average goals between the two teams, simply look at the goals for and goals against in the league table and the league tables of previous years and see how many goals the teams averaged per game. For example Spurs play Chelsea, Spurs have played 20 games and scored 40 goals, they average 2 goals scored per game, Chelsea have played 20 games and scored 50 goals, they average 2.5 goals a game. A check of the recent games between the two teams shows me there have been no draws in four years, I am starting to like my chances of it not being 0-0 and unlikely to be a draw. This is not difficult it is simple brief research. Is the team at full strength? A quick check on the clubs website will tell you if there are any injuries which obviously would weaken a team. How many draws have they had away and at home? I hope this gives you an idea of the process I go through when picking games. If I am trading a game and therefore sending it to you via email, you can be assured I have done that for you. I manually research every game, I do not use a computer programme. How can that tell me Groclin in Poland are resting 4 players because they have a cup final coming up.

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Please be advised the games I send out are the exact games I trade, I am not responsible for your choices or losses if these games don’t go our way. I am not personally kicking the ball. They are the matches I choose to trade based on MY RESEARCH

For my research I use www.bbc.co.uk www.futbol24.com (great for following the games as you trade, play an audible sound when goals are scored) www.goalslive.com All club websites e.g. www.tottenhamhotspur.com National Football Union Websites e.g www.theFA.com Any other website that helps such as wikipedia

When do you trade out of a drawing game? I do not want to sound flash at all I write it as I see it. I am in a position to take more risks than most. If I lose a trade I still have a bank behind me so it is absorbed fairly easily and I know the statistics mean LONG TERM I cannot lose. I appreciate a lot of you are starting out with small sums of money and a couple of losses dents your confidence as well as your bank. I will trade out of a game at 2.0 if my feeling is it is headed for a draw. Generally that will be if it is 0-0. Statistics show that more games that are 0-0 after 70 minutes finish that way than the other way round. It is easy to get into the 22 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

psychology that there have been no goals so there must be one before the end. Remember only just over 8% of games finish 0-0, these are usually drab affairs and if a game is that way at 70 mins there is a fair chance it will stay that way. I will look if it is 0-0 at half time at the scoring records of the two teams, again more research but does not take long. How many times have the teams involved scored in the last 20 minutes. Man Utd and Chelsea are renowned for late goals. Liverpool on the other hand score very few in the last part of the game. This is not guesswork it is a factual representation of how teams play football, Chelsea and Man Utd will attack if it is 0-0. Liverpool have a more conservative style of play with a “don’t let a goal in” attitude first. However if it is a score draw at 70 minutes I look upon the game differently. If the game is 1-1 or 2-2 the game has had goals and statistically it is likely there will be more. Now in this instance I generally stay in the games – PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT IS NOT MY ADVICE TO YOU – that is the process I operate because I know that if it stays a draw I can absorb that loss and LONG TERM I cannot lose. However your approach may be different if you are bank building and if it goes wrong you do not want to lose full liability.

So for those of you building your banks if we trade out at 2.0 regardless of 0-0 or a score draw there are still only 17% of games that we lose on and we cut our losses at that point.

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For an example You lay £20 at 4.2 your liability is £64 or you win £20 0-0 the market hits 2.0. You now back the draw for £40. I back at DOUBLE my stake. The scenario now is if the game stays 0-0 I have reduced my liability to £24 so that is my loss If a team scores and the match ends in a win for one of the teams, I lose my £40 back bet but WIN my original £20 lay, losing £20 on the game.

Now what happens if we get a run of draws. I have given this a lot of thought over the last few months and tested different scenarios including backing at 2.0 with double stake for 0-0 and single stake for score draws and vice versa etc. Here is the best plan I came up with, you may or may not like it but LONG TERM I consider it to be best. For Elite Club members when the website is up and running I am going to operate this method off a bank of £250 and detail it every day in a blog for you. We will have a little competition to see if I can be beat.

In all the time I have been trading I have never had four drawing matches consecutively. I have only had 3 twice. So the best system in my opinion is a cover to win system. If I lose a trade, I will increase my stake on the next trade. So in the example above I lost £24 as it was a 24 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

draw. I will increase my next trade by 50% of that loss. So the next game I lay at £32. This gives me this outcome assuming a difficult game again 0-0 market hits 2.0. I back at DOUBLE my lay so at £64 I now have

Lay £32 at 4.2 (note I am using top end figure all the time) – Liability = £102.40 Back £64 at 2.0 returns £64 Game finishes 0-0 again I lose my £102.40 liability on the original LAY I win £64 on the Back bet Net loss £38.40 plus my original £24 I am £62 down On the third game I increase my lay by 50% so I now trade £32 + £31 = £63, and that one wins for us. I have made a good dent in the money I lost on the first two games. I go back to £20 and that wins and hey presto I am in profit off a 50% strike rate. Now this may sound scary but remember I am taking worst case scenario in high lay price and 0-0 result. I refer you back to the statistics of draws which you can check yourself. (If you find it to scary try 25% it will still limit those losing games.)

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Now this restricts losses considerably and then when you go on a winning streak, you make hay. I went 94 games this year without a 0-0 and 89 games straight last year without a SINGLE LOSER of any type. By staking like this you will cover your losses, it is not like roulette where the next spin could always be the same colour, each match starts with odds in favour of one team so you are playing a board with your advantage. I am not chasing my losses I am systematically covering my trades I advise this for bank building and obviously if you are trading higher numbers then the figures involved can get scary and you may struggle to get your trade matched on Betfair. If your bank is at this level you can dive out at 2.0 and take the hit. Like I said I don’t want to sound flash, but I distance myself emotionally from the money. Of course I don’t like to lose (who does) but I accept that it happens, trading is what I do and this goes with the territory. The England and Real Madrid games in May/June 2013 hurt me massively, not because I lost but because the goals were in the last minute of injury time and there is nothing you can do then, it was not so much the money but the nature of the defeat. I can only advise that you start at a level you can afford. No one will ever convince me that this system does not work, the main reason for failure is gambling money you do not have which affects you psychologically and letting emotion affect what you do. If you do the same thing repeatedly you will win. If you stake £100 on one game then all of a sudden think “oh Arsenal must win I will have £300 on this one” then you will lose, because the big game that you thought had to win will KICK YOU IN THE BUTT. My advice is to start the system as above and only increase you general stake when your bank can accommodate it. (When the cover to win system gives you a winning game revert back to your usual stake). 26 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

When do you get out if you are winning? If the game is 1-0 or 2-0 and the odds are climbing in our favour I have always had the philosophy of doubling my Lay price. So if I lay at 4.2 I look to back out at 8.4 or a bit above. This secures me a nice profit. Again sometimes it may be 1-0 and I will ride it out to the end that is my preference to maximise profit and take the full value of my initial LAY. Again this is something I can do and absorb if it backfires on me (approx 9% of 1-1 draws worldwide tells me I will be ok LONG TERM). If you adopt my method accept you will get hit sometimes otherwise build your bank by taking profit when it is there. Lots of small amonts soon become a big amount. I have to add at this juncture I get a Big Buzz from trading, I don’t get nervous and really enjoy it, tight games and all. (Kinda sick I know). The easiest way to ensure you get your desired profit is to place your back bet UNMATCHED at the desired odds. On the place bets screen at Betfair, you can raise the odds to the level you wish lets say 8.4 and place your back stake in the box. Click submit and your bet is placed but is unmatched. This means that nobody has offered to accept that bet yet, but when they do you will get matched instantly and your profit secured. This is better than racing to get the odds when they appear and being beat to it (by someone like me). NOTE – if the market suspends all unmatched bets are automatically cancelled so you need to place them again when the market resumes. A useful feature to use when placing bets is the “what if” feature. This is under the options on the betting screen. It will show you the affect of your bet when you place it 27 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

before you submit it. It is useful to see how much profit you would make before committing to a certain price.

What do you do if the underdog team scores first?

I do NOTHING. If a team – whatever team- is leading 1-0 I am winning my trade. Therefore I leave it, again the statistics back up that there will be more results go our way than not so I operate exactly the same. The draw odds will not rise because the favourite is expected to equalise so I just sit on it. Many times the favourite will equalise, but then they will score again, many times the dog team will hold on, and about 9% of the time it may end 1-1. Do not panic. A useful strategy to have in your armoury is one where we lay the winning team late on in the game. Lets assume the underdog has scored and at 82 minutes it is still 0-0. I layed the draw for £100 at 4.2 so my liability is £320. The odds at 88 mins are as follows Favourite/Losing team To BACK 17.0 Draw To BACK 4.1 Underdog/Winning Team To LAY 1.2

I cannot back the draw at a profit at 4.1 as the odds are not rising because the favourites have all the ball and are pressing. I am not going to back the losing team at 17 when they need to score 2 goals in 2 minutes. I do 28 Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

however have the liability of £320 and the danger of a late equaliser. I can LAY the winning team at 1.2 for an amount to reduce my liability in case of a last minute goal. So I lay for £300 at 1.2. If the last minute goal comes hence a draw I have won £300 on the trade I just placed reducing my liability to only £20. If there is no goal I win my £100 on my initial Lay and pay out on my losing £300 trade I just placed but only £60. £300 x 0.2 = £60. So I win £40 if it stays the same. You can do this at 1.1 or even 1.06. It is not something I do lots of but for the more nervous types it is a useful weapon to protect you. Well that is it, if there is anything left out mail it to me and I can add it on here. The only thing left for me to point out is mistakes I have spotted as I see them, I am not criticising what anybody does as it is their own money but things I note people doing when online with me.

In no particular order Chasing Losses Getting emotionally involved with the money side therefore making bad judgement calls Waiting for 10 minutes of the game to go so the lay odds drop causing you to miss games when an early goal is scored. Depreciating profits by placing other bets such as over/ under 2.5 goals. Inconsistent staking Inconsistent trading patterns As always I assure you of my support and wish you all the best.

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Regards Darren P.S I suggest you print these pages out and keep them handy.

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