Food,Flavour&Ingredients Outlook2012

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012, 9th Edition January 2012

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012, 9th Edition

January 2012

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012, 9th Edition has been prepared by Packaged Facts. We serve consumer product and service companies and allied businesses in the United States and internationally with a complete line of research publications. Packaged Facts market intelligence reports are designed to aid the executive decision-maker by providing essential data and concise analysis with a focus on marketplace trends, consumer insights, and emerging opportunities.

Vice President of Publishing

Don Montuori

Research Director and Publisher

David Sprinkle

Author

Elaine Tecklenburg

Publication Date

LA6488932

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced without permission of the publisher. Copyright © 2012 Packaged Facts

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary .................................................. 1  Scope ................................................................................................. 1  Key Drivers ........................................................................................ 1  Forever Frugal and Trading Down ............................................................ 2  The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class ...................................................... 3  Going to Extremes .................................................................................... 4 

A Look Back and Ahead ................................................................... 4  Ethnic and Regional Enticements ................................................... 4  Produce Predominates ..................................................................... 5  Trend Watching 2012 ........................................................................ 5  Flavor and Ingredient Crossovers................................................... 6  Making Healthy Easier ...................................................................... 6  Beverages Breaking Through .......................................................... 7  Protein: Lean and Luscious ............................................................ 7  Sexy Sandwiches .............................................................................. 8  Sweet Treats ...................................................................................... 8 

Chapter 2: Ethnic and Regional Enticements.......................... 11  Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion.................................................. 12  Peruvian Progressing ..................................................................... 13  Southern Revival............................................................................. 15  Celebrating U.S. Regional Ingredients.......................................... 17  Mexican Misconceptions: Appealing to the Hispanic Population ................................................................................... 17  What Foodies Want: U.S. Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal ........ 18  Table 2-1: Top U.S. Destination Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal ........... 19 

Providence - Portuguese Roots Plus Peculiar Pleasantries ...... 20  Santa Fe Specialties............................................................................... 20 

Chapter 3: Produce Predominates ........................................... 23  Heirlooms: Starting with Old, Very Old, Seeds ........................... 23  Ratcheting Up “Real” with Fresh Fruits and Vegetables ............ 24  January 2012

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Produce Promises at Progressive Fast Casuals .................................... 25  Juicing It Up ........................................................................................... 26  Produce Pronto: On-the-Go and At Home ............................................. 26  Fruit & Veggies On-the-Go .................................................................... 26  Salad and Cook-Ready Veggies: Available On Demand ....................... 27 

Popular Produce ............................................................................. 28  Greens ................................................................................................... 29  Turnips ................................................................................................... 29  Specialty Mushrooms............................................................................. 30 

Vegetables: The New Luncheon Meat? ........................................ 30  Potato Appeal .................................................................................. 31  Vegetables From the Sea ............................................................... 32  Edible Plants from the Wild ........................................................... 33  Bountiful Fruits ............................................................................... 33  Sensational Superfruits .......................................................................... 34  Trendy Tropicals .................................................................................... 34  Tangy Citrus .......................................................................................... 35  Apples Abound ...................................................................................... 35 

Food Stamps = Plethora of Produce ............................................. 36  Farmers’ Markets: Too Many, Too Few, Time for Something New? ............................................................................................ 37  Table 3-1: Number of Operating Farmers' Markets in the United States ..................................................................................... 37  CSAs and Farmers’ Markets – Collaborators or Competitors? .............. 39 

Supermarket Produce – Getting More Local ................................ 39  Supermarket Produce Aisle – THE Place to Be ........................... 41  Veggies, Veggies Everywhere – Except the Diet? ....................... 42 

Chapter 4: Trend Watching 2012............................................... 45  New Crop of Young Farmers ......................................................... 45  Historic Gastronomy: Recreating Recipes of Olde .................... 47  Linner & Brinner: Millennials Redefine Eating ............................. 48  New Market Formats for DIY Food Crafts ..................................... 50  Gourmet Gadgets – Goofy or Godsends? .................................... 50  Perfecting Mini Pies ............................................................................... 50  Whoopie Pies Go Wild ........................................................................... 51  Serious Stuff for Sous Vide Fans ........................................................... 52  Panini Press On ..................................................................................... 53  Yonanas: Going Bananas ..................................................................... 53  ii

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Table of Contents

New Twists in Food Tourism ......................................................... 54  Agritourists Seek Farmer Chefs ............................................................. 54  Tour de Compost .................................................................................... 54  Home is Where the Chicken Roosts ....................................................... 55 

Future Food: Dinner for …… 7 Billion! ........................................ 55  Breadfruit Believers Battle Bland ............................................................ 56  Betting on Bug Bites ............................................................................... 56  Vampires, Line Up .................................................................................. 57 

Crossovers: Ingredients in Unexpected Places ......................... 58  Duck Fat: Good for You, or Just Good? ................................................ 58  Desserts Get Peppered Up .................................................................... 59  Pretzel Power ......................................................................................... 60  Waffles - Unwavering ............................................................................. 62  Luxurious Layering ................................................................................. 63 

Combos and Value Meals in New Places ..................................... 63 

Chapter 5: Making Healthy Easier ............................................ 65  Plate2 vs. Pyramid ........................................................................... 65  Figure 5-1: USDA Choose MyPlate Icon for Communicating 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans .............................................. 66  Harvard: Healthy Eating Plate ................................................................ 67  Figure 5-2: Harvard School of Public Health Proposed Healthy Eating Plate Icon ................................................................................ 68 

Managing Weight – Still a Hefty Task ........................................... 69  Making Dining Out More Nutritious............................................... 71  Ronald’s Reckoning: Reinvention Triumphs Over Retirement ............... 71  The Power of Peer Pressure: Kids LiveWell Program ........................... 72  Dietitians – The New Menu Celebrities?................................................ 73 

Consumers’ Nutrition Concerns.................................................... 74  Gluten-Free Going Gangbusters ................................................... 74  Vexing Vitamins .............................................................................. 75  Defining Beauty............................................................................... 76  Explosive Energy ............................................................................ 77 

Chapter 6: Mostly, Friendlier Fats ............................................ 81  Preindustrial Fats – Pure Pleasure................................................ 81  Artisanal Butter ....................................................................................... 81 

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Healthier and Heavenly .................................................................. 83  Specialty Seed, Nut and Vegetable Oils ....................................... 84  Pumpkin Seed Oil .................................................................................. 84  Avocado Oil ........................................................................................... 85  Nut Oils .................................................................................................. 85 

Chapter 7: Beverages Breaking Through ................................. 87  Smoothies: More Shaking & Stirring ............................................ 87  Table 7-1: Recently Launched U.S. Retail Smoothie Products ............. 89 

Jazzing Up the Juice....................................................................... 89  Juice Bar Makeover – Revolution or Evolution? .................................... 89  Retail Market - Less Juicy? .................................................................... 91  Drink Your Vegetables! .......................................................................... 93 

DIY Beverages Get Personal.......................................................... 93  Customized Concentrates...................................................................... 94  Portable Powder Sticks Still Popular ...................................................... 94  Getting Personal, At Home .................................................................... 95 

Chapter 8: Protein: Lean and Luscious .................................... 97  Seafood ............................................................................................ 97  Retailers Increasingly Committed to Sustainability ................................ 98  Boat-to-Table: Hi Tech Enabled ............................................................. 99  Canned Tuna – Under Attack .............................................................. 100  The Dietary Guidelines & Seafood Consumption ................................. 101  Savoring Small, Oily Fish ..................................................................... 101 

Poultry Preoccupation.................................................................. 102  Chasing Chickens ................................................................................ 102  Tantalizing Turkey ............................................................................... 103  Pies – Not Just for Dessert .................................................................. 104 

Bye, Bye Boxed Beef! ................................................................... 105  Sizzling Sausages ......................................................................... 105  Ethnic Dogs ......................................................................................... 106  “If It Ain’t In a Casing, it isn’t worth tasting.” ......................................... 107  Sausage Stats ..................................................................................... 107  Corn Dogs............................................................................................ 108 

Boastful Burgers – Can You Top This? ...................................... 108  Mighty Meat Combos ........................................................................... 109  Seafood Combos ................................................................................. 109  Utmost Umami ..................................................................................... 109  iv

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Table of Contents

Chapter 9: Sexy Sandwiches .................................................. 111  Burgers Beware! ........................................................................... 111  Haute Sandwiches................................................................................ 111  Glamorous Grilled Cheese – Getting Cheesier .................................... 112  Scanwich: Sandwiches as Art .............................................................. 114  Super Convenient Sandwiches ............................................................ 115  Popovers – The Next Sandwich Ingredient? ........................................ 116 

Chapter 10: Sweet Treats ........................................................ 117  Classics Redefined ....................................................................... 117  Luscious Layer Cakes Return ..................................................... 118  Puddings with Pizazz.................................................................... 119  Crisps, Cobblers and Other Baked Fruit Desserts .................... 119  Petite Pies and Other Pleasing Permutations ............................ 120  Worldly Butter Cakes.................................................................... 121  Kouign Amann: Move Over, Macarons! ............................................... 121  Ooey, Gooey Spreads Beyond Saint Louie .......................................... 122  The British Are Coming! ....................................................................... 123 

Newly Fashioned Nostalgic Flavors............................................ 123  Butterscotch ......................................................................................... 124  Lemon & Lime ...................................................................................... 124  Pear ...................................................................................................... 124  Corn...................................................................................................... 125 

Ice Cream Indulgences ................................................................. 125 

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

Chapter 1

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Scope Whether or not there is a double dip recession or the Euro Zone financial crisis spills over onto U.S. shores, the economic picture for 2012 appears bleak, at best. Feeling the squeeze, both the employed and out-of-work will continue to practice the frugal behaviors adopted during the Great Recession of 2008 while also attempting to incorporate healthy food choices into their daily routines. Seeking to overcome the boredom of extended frugality, consumers will especially value creative attempts by manufacturers, retailers, and foodservice operators to affordably introduce variety, comfort and indulgence to their taste experiences.

As in

years past, the goal of this report is to identify and discuss the flavor and ingredient trends expected to have a major impact in 2012 on food consumed both at home and away.

Key Drivers The unemployment rate, expected to remain high or approach double digits if the country slips back into recession, will be the biggest factor affecting the economy and consumer confidence in 2012. Wage stagnation, high gas prices, higher food prices, continued decline in home values and European financial woes contributed to eroding consumer confidence that encouraged honing frugal purchasing habits in the second half of 2011. Seventy-two percent of consumers surveyed by Symphony IRI Group in 2011 said the economy had farther to fall before hitting bottom. For the foodservice sector in particular, consumer confidence will be crucial in 2012. Senior Vice President of Research and Information Services Division of the National Restaurant Association, Hudson Riehle, stated that “2011 is the best operating environment for restaurateurs out of the past four-year period.” With 7% increase in wholesale food costs and 2% increase in menu inflation, effective cost control is the reason. "From the restaurant industry perspective, the less anxious consumers are, the better it is for the industry. Consumer confidence is still down in the 20% to 30% range in some parts of the country. You would like to see that around 80% or higher. But this is all linked to getting a job and with the unemployment rate being as high as it is consumer confidence remains low." (Foodservice Equipment & Supplies, Sept. 1, 2011)

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

As Baby Boomers worry more about retirement and cut back on eating out, some foodservice operators will increasingly focus on the preferences of Millennials and Next Generations for driving trends.

(Foodservice Equipment & Supplies, Sept. 1, 2011)

However, young

Americans are having an even harder time finding jobs than other age groups. Through October 2011, unemployment of 18 and 19 year olds was about 23% and for 20 to 24 year olds it was nearly 15% as compared with the national rate of 9%. The NPD Group reported that for the year ended May 2011, young people between 18 and 24 visited restaurants an average of 192 times, down from 245 times five years ago, whereas all potential customers visited 196 times as compared with 208 times in 2006. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011) While it does not appear that food inflation will increase in 2012 and may actually begin to ease, retailers were slow to pass along price increases in 2011, especially compared with restaurants. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food rose 0.4% in September 2011, following on a 0.5% increase in August with the biggest gain (1.2%) for dairy and related products followed by a 0.9% increase for cereals and bakery products, the same for fruits and vegetables, with apples and tomatoes showing big increases, and meats, poultry, fish and eggs rising 0.4%, with the index for eggs having risen sharply. (www.foodbusinessnews.net, Oct. 19, 2011) In terms of wholesale prices, in October 2011 choice beef was up 18%, pork was up 31% and milk futures prices were up 29% as compared with a year ago. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011) Retail food prices in 2012 will largely be dictated by the late summer and fall weather in the American

Midwest.

(USDA

Economic

Research

Service,

Sept.

23,

2011;

www.foodnavigator-usa.com, July 27, 2011) HIS Global Insight Senior Economist Chris Christopher summed up the economic situation by saying, “Consumers are fragile, fatigued, and fed up.” There is also a belief that these consumers will be “forever frugal” (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011) Forever Frugal and Trading Down When it comes to food at home and away, consumer frugality continues to manifest itself in ever more ways that include shopping from a list, buying less, trading down, using coupons, delaying and combining trips (explaining why Target Corporation has added more basic foods to all its stores) to cut back on gasoline usage, forgoing impulse buying and even small discretionary purchases, and doing more shopping at bulk food stores and dollar stores. In addition, 2012 is likely to see continued paycheck-cycle shopping, whereby consumers buy large quantities right after getting paid, and then switch to buying smaller package sizes as 2

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

money starts to run out. The protracted economic doldrums of the last few years have resulted in more ways for consumers to trade down. In addition to switching to private label brands, smaller, cheaper packages of favorite branded items are increasingly available.

And

consumers will continue to seek out deals and new value offerings. As reported in the fourth quarter of 2011, Symphony IRI found that nearly 75% of consumers now shop with lists as compared with 45% in 2008, 20% of grocery sales are private label, up from 15% before the recession and 44% of consumers shop more at bulk food stores. As consumer budgets shrink further, products that were once considered essentials are now luxury items. Spending on kids, typically resilient during recessions, has been showing signs of declining. Recently, diaper sales have been dropping off while sales of diaper rash ointment have increased. Consumer Edge Research has determined that volume sales of diapers lost 1% in the four weeks ending September 4, 2011 as compared with the same period a year ago (excluding Costco Wholesale Corporation and Wal-Mart) while dollar sales dropped 3%. The data suggest that consumers are both reducing purchases and trading down to less expensive private label brands. Kimberly-Clark brand Huggies saw dollar sales drop 4% and P&G Pampers and Luvs brands declined 2.5% during this time period. Symphony IRI Group estimated that shoppers are purchasing approximately 10% less than they did before the recession, with the number of items on hand in pantries and medicine cabinets declining from 511 to 467. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011) The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class The coming year will see more food manufacturers and retailers targeting the growing numbers of high and low end consumers instead of focusing on the shrinking middle class. Much of this is the result of shrinking budgets of the former middle class, now planting them squarely in the group of low income consumers. The growth of both the low end and high end consumers has been dubbed the “Consumer Hourglass Theory” by Citigroup, and consumer product manufacturers and some retailers already catering to low-income consumers include Dollar General Corporation, P&G, and H.J. Heinz Co. According to Phyllis Jackson, P&G Vice President of Consumer Market Knowledge for North America, the Gini Index, a widely accepted measure of income inequality, now looks similar for the United States, Mexico and the Philippines. In order to grow their businesses in the current environment, manufacturers will change the way they do research, and will January 2012

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

develop and market their products differently. One of the big challenges for manufacturers developing products to target the high end include getting comfortable with estimating and working with lower volumes and still retaining a high level of appeal. At the low end, the cost challenges can be formidable and a good understanding of these consumers is key. Dollar General Corporation’s efforts targeting low income consumers has rewarded them with steady sales growth while their discount rivals such as Target Corporation and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have failed to keep pace. Going to Extremes Consistent with the Occupy Wall Street Protests led by “The Other 99%”, fed up consumers may also show more occasional rebelliousness or defiance when it comes to finding enjoyable, affordable (frugal) food and beverage choices in 2012. Consumers are weary after four years of deprivation. They are looking for variety and indulgence in the context of their new scaled back reality that may be satisfied by seemingly clashing, outlandish, extreme, strong, huge and otherwise in-your-face flavors and ingredients.

A Look Back and Ahead To follow is a snapshot of the food flavors and ingredient trends Packaged Facts predicts will be important in 2012. Where possible, comparisons are made with the trends anticipated for 2011.

Ethnic and Regional Enticements 2011: Packaged Facts expected that with the increase in food trucks there would be a wider assortment of ethnic foods available featuring the specialties of the individual entrepreneurs, with particular focus on South American cuisines of various types. Japanese food, especially yakatori, was identified to lead the Asian food trend, with Indian and Korean food also gaining ground. A new found interest in Scandinavian cuisine was anticipated. 2012: Packaged Facts predicts that fusion will be the primary trend for the coming year when it comes to ethnic food, particularly in relation to food trucks, with Korean influences especially strong. In particular, Packaged Facts expects kimchi to be worked into nearly every ethnicity including and especially American fare. It is anticipated there will be more interest in all aspects of Peruvian cuisine, well beyond ceviche and seafood, including greater appreciation for potato dishes. The flavors and ingredients of Southern cooking will be big, 4

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Chapter 1: Executive Summary

with improvisation or customization to incorporate international influences, especially those of Central and South America, or the local and regional tastes of the locale where it is on offer. Food processors will continue the trend to source ingredients and label foods from a specific state or region (e.g. Vermont cheddar, Northwest raspberries).

Produce Predominates 2011: It was predicted that there would be continued growth in directly marketed local and organic produce and locally processed foods sold via farmers’ markets and CSAs.

Urban

farming was expected to become more common, with more fresh produce readily available for city dwellers, including those residing in “food deserts.” More multi-farm collaboration agreements were anticipated, resulting in extended CSAs with new ways of taking advantage of local foods consistent with the farm-to-table movement. 2012: While urban farming is expected to remain popular and there will be more small farmers working fields, Packaged Facts expects the growth in farmers’ markets to slow with increased concern that there are too many and, more generally, insufficient infrastructure to satisfy the growing demand for locally grown, directly marketed food. It is anticipated that more locally grown food will be available and promoted through conventional supermarkets as well as portable, single-serve ready-to-eat fresh fruit and vegetable snacks. For home use, more recloseable packaging, cooking bags and salad kits containing vegetables are expected on the marketplace. In foodservice, more creative, vegetable-centric sandwiches and centerof-the-plate items are likely. Winter squash, turnips, specialty mushrooms and greens of all sorts, especially various kale varieties are predicted to gain in popularity along with huckleberries, gooseberries and cloudberries.

Trend Watching 2012 2011: Last year Packaged Facts predicted that the food craft DIY movement would gain momentum and that breakfast would become more important. More skewered foods of all ethnic types, specialty vinegars and functional and creatively flavored chewing gum were expected to create excitement. Major countertrends anticipated were the growing use and featuring of sea salt in the face of sodium reduction initiatives and a small niche of foodservice deliberately delivering and blatantly promoting enormous sandwiches and other dishes as the obesity epidemic persisted.

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

2012: Heading into 2012, Packaged Facts expects more Millennial eating 24/7 to blur traditional dayparts and result in novel combinations of savory and sweet ingredients. Interest in historic gastronomy and use of ancient ingredients to develop menus incorporating them is predicted to increase. More approaches to the direct marketing of DIY food crafts will be tested and tried, with the added benefit that new trends will likely be spurred by oneoff small products catching attention via social media. It is anticipated that sous vide, Panini, mini pies, whoopie pies and Yonanas popularity will help drive consumer ingredient and food selection in the coming year.

In greater competition with foodservice, frozen food

manufacturers are likely to find more ways to add value via extra vegetables or entrée-dessert combos. An increase in agritourism will get more Americans visiting farms and taking cooking classes while other tours will inform and educate about raising chickens in the city, composting, beekeeping and the like. More exploration of novel food sources to feed the world’s seven billion plus people can be anticipated.

Flavor and Ingredient Crossovers 2011: Packaged Facts predicted that olive oil usage would expand into sweet baked goods and that macaroni and cheese would be used more as a flavor or ingredient for incorporating in other foods. It was anticipated that red velvet would find a home on nearly every part of the menu and aisle of the supermarket and ethnic sauces including sriracha, chimichurri and miso were expected to be found in dishes outside their traditional cuisines. 2012: It can be expected that duck fat usage will be on the rise across all menu categories, including desserts, and in the home kitchen as retail distribution expands. Also expected to appear more on dessert menus are fresh peppers and peppercorns and pretzels. Pretzel mania will continue for another year, with more uses of both hard and soft varieties. Waffles are predicted to follow a similar path with focus on folding, stacking and layering with fillings along with use of small inclusions in the batter.

Making Healthy Easier 2011: Packaged Facts anticipated that food would get more attention as the foundation of health and that wellness activities would be better integrated into overall lifestyle. It was predicted that sodium reduction would represent a huge initiative for both processed food manufacturers and foodservice. Recognition of digestive health as a link to overall good

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Chapter 1: Executive Summary

health with an increase in yogurt and other probiotic-containing food sales was predicted while sales of gluten free foods were expected to peak. 2012: In response to the long awaited Dietary Guidelines for Americans, Packaged Facts predicts that processed food manufacturers will introduce more products that reflect greater use of whole grains, leaner proteins, including poultry and seafood, more mono and polyunsaturated fats including specialty oils and more vegetables. New single-serve fresh fruit and vegetable options are expected to boost the nutritional value and drop the caloric content of restaurant meals, especially those at quick serve restaurants targeting kids. Similarly, lower fat milk options, both flavored and plain, are expected to be more readily available. New gluten free items will be developed as line extensions, but no significant growth in the number of product launches is anticipated over 2011. With continued high consumer interest and demand for energy beverages, shots and food products, more manufacturers are likely to enter the market.

Beverages Breaking Through 2012: Packaged Facts anticipates more activity for retail fruit smoothies across multiple categories as manufacturers determine which flavors, textures, convenience factors and value-added ingredients appeal most. Interest in fresh squeezed fruit and vegetable juices and the juice bar concept is expected to rise while retail juice processors address objections to fruit juice consumption raised in the Dietary Guidelines. An upswing is anticipated in the popularity of orange, cherry, coconut and blackcurrant juices as well as flavored and regular lemonade and limeade. Natural ingredients and zero calorie stevia-sweetened juice drinks are likely to be more prevalent, as are retail vegetable juices. Popular flavor sticks for on-the-go and single serve use will focus more on milk and beverages other than water.

Protein: Lean and Luscious 2011: Packaged Facts expected there would be growing interest in local meats, homemade sausage and artisanal bacon. Hi end burgers were predicted to give way to more affordable cuts of beef and more modest burgers adorned by more specialty toppings including housemade or artisan pickles and specialty or regional cheeses and fancy French fries. It was anticipated that free-range and spicy chicken options would be highly appealing and that the sustainability of seafood would gain in importance.

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

2012: Packaged Facts predicts there will be greater commitment from foodservice and retailers to offer exclusively sustainable seafood including more trial and promotion of fresh sardines and anchovies. More traceable, local catch is likely to appear on independent and high end restaurant menus. Chicken wings will remain a favorite owing to inventiveness of seasonings, marinades and dipping sauce flavors and watch for turkey burgers, savory pies and pasties to be offered on more restaurant menus. Packaged Facts expects there will be higher demand for more unusual cuts, species and animal parts coincident with the increase in local butcher shops as an outgrowth of the food craft DIY movement. More humanely raised veal will offer new flavor profiles. Affordability and virtually guaranteed great taste will keep sausages and hot dogs popular in 2012 with ethnic interpretations generating interest. Focus on burgers will shift to elaborate toppings of meat and seafood such as oysters and pastrami.

Sexy Sandwiches 2011: Melts, grilled cheese, pulled pork, vegetarian and ethnic sandwiches were expected to be popular. 2012: Packaged Facts predicts more big name chefs will open high end sandwich restaurants featuring local and seasonal ingredients where virtually everything is made fresh, in-house. Newly opened grilled cheese themed restaurants will ensure that these sandwiches are heavily emphasized, and copycat menus at non-themed competitors are likely. Popovers in place of bread and more open-faced sandwiches are anticipated in foodservice, and more frozen and refrigerated sandwiches at retail from major food manufacturers will likely make lunchtime easier.

Sweet Treats 2011: Appreciation for artisanal and retro desserts was expected to be strong with homemade pie and ice cream showing creativity and whoopie pies and macarons battling to take over the cupcake as the top sweet treat. Upscale and highly indulgent embellished ice cream desserts, including milkshakes and floats, were expected to be popular. 2011:

Packaged Facts anticipates that updated takes on classic desserts will again be

featured, with tall layer cakes growing in popularity. Interest in pies will shift to miniature versions and for fruit pies, varietal and less familiar fruits will be showcased. Butter cake from France and Saint Louis are expected to gain more followers while U.S. adaptations of 8

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Chapter 1: Executive Summary

U.K. Sticky Toffee Pudding will likely appear more on menus. Butterscotch, pear, lemon and lime and corn are predicted to be more common dessert ingredients in the year ahead. Ice cream creations likely to draw attention include updated interpretations of baked Alaska, ice cream sodas and strawberry shortcake stick novelties.

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

Chapter 2

Chapter 2: Ethnic and Regional Enticements

Ethnic and Regional Enticements

Food trucks, social media and advanced smart phone technology will play an increasingly important role in driving trends, both macro and micro, and taste preferences for ethnic foods in 2012. Given the likelihood of continued economic gloom and doom, ethnic foods will offer variety and excitement when the rest of life is humdrum, and many will do so quite affordably. Before the Internet and abundance of cooking shows, and entire food-focused networks, on television, it was generally accepted that interest in and preference for ethnic foods developed as a result of international travel and visits to ethnic restaurants. Not so anymore. Cooking shows, magazines and recipe websites have more impact. Research conducted by Mintel indicates that 26% of ethnic food lovers were introduced to a new cuisine by TV shows, newspapers or magazines; 25% indicated they were introduced to a new ethnic cuisine as a result of living in a culturally diverse neighborhood; 23% said they tried new ethnic food items after reading cookbook recipes that included ethnic dishes and just 18% said they developed a liking for ethnic cuisine after traveling overseas. (FoodProcessing.com, Sept. 28, 2011) The extent of flavor fusion will be unprecedented in 2012, perhaps best described by Baum and Whiteman as “the whole world on a plate”, where flavors clash on purpose. (www.4hoteliers.com, Oct. 20, 2011) There will likely be bifurcation associated with this trend, with low end operators, like food trucks, with little to risk taking this approach, while larger chain operators stick with trends that look certain to have more mass appeal. According to Technomic, the two ethnic foods [for foodservice] with the most potential in the United States are Asian and Mediterranean, while Indian is less certain. Recently launched ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen is an example. (FoodProcessing.com, Sept. 28, 2011) From the perspective of new products launched at retail featuring specific ethnic flavors, data from Innova Market Insights indicates the most popular cuisines for the first half of 2011 were Italian (34%), Indian (14%), Chinese (12%), Thai (10%), Japanese (6%) and Greek (5%). (Food Technology, Oct. 2011) A recent survey for online deal site LivingSocial conducted with 4,000 consumers in the U.S. top 20 media markets by Mandala Research, LLC found that when it comes to frequency of January 2012

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

ethnic food consumption, Americans report eating Italian food (65%), Mexican food (62%), Chinese food (59%) and pizza (58%) more than 22 other types of cuisine.

Regional

preferences were apparent, with Boston preferring Irish food, Atlanta choosing delis, Detroit seeking Middle Eastern food and Seattle gravitating to Vietnamese food. When asked which new ethnic cuisines they had tried most recently, Thai topped the list, ahead of 25 others, with other top mentions being seafood, sushi, Greek, barbecue and Indian food. New York ranked #1 for visits to Italian eateries while Washington, D.C. had the highest number of residents enjoying Ethiopian cuisine. (livingsocial.com, Sept. 15, 2011)

Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion While LA’s famed KogiBBQ trucks are associated with popularizing Korean fusion cuisine with the likes of Korean BBQ tacos and kimchi quesadillas, expect to see Korean influence heading more mainstream in 2012. At least in part this trend owes some of its might to The Kimchi Chronicles that aired on PBS this past year. The host of the series is half Korean Marja Vongerichten, wife of famous restaurateur Jean-Georges Vongerichten of the flagship New York restaurant bearing his name, where no Korean-inspired dishes are served – at least not yet. The series explores Korean cuisine with visits to restaurants, markets and home kitchens, providing insight into the variety of flavors in Korean food, highlighting that sometimes they are heavy with garlic and sesame oil, and other times they are lighter with bean pastes and seasoned vinegars, and not all of it spicy. Ms. Vongerichten also authored a Korean cookbook of the same name as the series. (nytimes.com, Sept. 8, 2010) Building on both the growing popularity of Korean fusion cuisine and kimchi, New York’s Kimchi Taco Truck was launched by Phillip Lee and Youngsun Lee early in 2011 offering a mash-up of Korean and other cuisines, especially those long associated with street food classics. According to Phillip Lee, “Korean food is still a mystery for a lot of people, so we plan to incorporate Korean items into familiar things like cheese steaks, rice balls and falafel.” His goal was to make Korean food accessible and memorable so the general public appreciates its unique and bold flavors. The underlying theme of the truck can be traced to homemade kimchi and barbecue. Every menu item is topped with fresh or sautéed kimchi. Menu items include kimchi-infused refried beans over crispy wontons, rice bowl with Korean barbecued beef, kimchi and pico de gallo tacos, falafel kimchi taco and Kim-Cheesesteak. Consistent with the growing trend of mobile restaurants migrating to bricks and mortar, Kimchi Taco plans to open its first restaurant location, Kimchi Grill, in Brooklyn, NY. (kimchitacotruck.com, viewed Oct. 21, 2011) 12

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In Portland, OR, food cart Namu offers Korean Hawaiian fusion cuisine where the menu features a range of dishes, including “1 qt. Kim Chee” for $10. (namufoodcart.com, viewed Oct. 23, 2011) In business for over 30 years, the makers of Arirang Kimchi make hand cut and hand produced kimchi carrying the tagline, “always fresh, always delicious.”

The company

website provides a recipe for Kimchi Ravioli, made with handmade ravioli stuffed with a kimchi ricotta filling and covered in a kimchi Bolognese sauce.

(arirangkimchee.com,

viewed Oct. 21, 2011) While there are hundreds of varieties of kimchi, the most familiar ones are made with Napa cabbage, radish, or cucumber and seasonings that might include garlic, ginger, chopped radish, salt and red chili pepper flakes. (kimchitacotruck.com, viewed Oct. 21, 2011) Beyond both The Kimchi Chronicles and New York’s Kimchi Taco truck, get ready for kimchi to continue its push into evermore mainstream menu offerings. One food writer asks, “Is Kimchee the New Bacon?” (www.smallbiztrendcast.com, Sept. 27, 2011)

Peruvian Progressing Expect to see a noticeable increase in the presence of Peruvian food throughout the United States in 2012 thanks in part to recent pilgrimages to Lima by celebrity and world renowned chefs who are being influenced by its compelling flavors and tastes. Visitors to Mistura, a ten day food festival that started in 2008 and has become the most important food event in Latin America, have included Rene Redzepi of Denmark, Michel Bras of France and Dan Barber of Blue Hill in Manhattan and Blue Hill at Stone Barns in Pocantico Hills, NY. Even without the recent interest expressed by some big names in the culinary world, a recent Zagat survey shows that there are four times more Peruvian restaurants in New York, San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, and Philadelphia than there were four years ago. (wsj.online, Sept. 12, 2011) In addition to ceviches, raw seafood marinated in lime juice and often made with onions and a yellow chili, aji amarillo, and tiraditos, slices of raw fish served in flavor sauce, be on the lookout for Peruvian dishes causa and anticuchos to become better well known in the United States. The roots of Peruvian cooking can largely be traced to seafood and potatoes. Seafood is often prepared raw or cured with a high acid hit from lime juice and spice from fruity aji peppers. There are said to be approximately 3,000 varieties of potatoes in Peru, where the tuber originated. While ceviche is already popular in the United States on menus other than at January 2012

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Peruvian restaurants, when served more traditionally it is often accompanied with yellow potato or yam. Mashed potatoes are featured in causa, served cold and topped with fish or chicken salad. Some liken Peruvian cuisine to Japanese food, also moving more mainstream in a big way over the last few years. This is not entirely a coincidence. Peruvian cuisine has been described as “a nearly 500-year melting pot of Spanish, African, Japanese and Chinese immigration and native Quechua culture. (wsjonline, Sept. 10, 2011) Peruvian cuisine also benefits from a healthy halo, most likely as a result of the association or connection to Spanish cooking and extensive use of fish. After several years of running Mo-Chica, a successful stand offering six dishes in Mercado LaPaloma near the University of Southern California, late in 2011 Peruvian born and trained chef Ricardo Zarate, named one of Food & Wine’s 10 best new chefs in 2011, opened Picca, a Peruvian cantina, also in Los Angeles. The menu includes first courses of an empanada trio (beef, chicken and eggplant) and Papa Rellena, stuffed potato with slow cooked beef, boiled egg and rocoto aioli. Separate sections of the menu list sushi, ceviches and anticuchos. A quinoa pumpkin stew and roasted black cod with Peruvian sundried potato stew are also on the menu. (www.piccaperu.com, Oct. 21, 2011; Huffington Post, June 28, 2011; LA Times, Sept. 22, 2011) At the other end of the country in Fort Lauderdale, Jesus Zelada opened Flavor of Peru in 2011 with the experience of his Peruvian restaurant Sabor since 2008. The menu features pulpo al olivo, made by blending purple Peruvian olives with mayonnaise and serving it on top of sliced octopus; anticuchos with beef hearts; lomo saltado, sautéed beef sirloin, onions and bell peppers in a soy sauce base and chupe de mariscos, seafood stew made with white cheese in a seafood broth with aji Amarillo, spicy yellow pepper, making it a bright yellow color. Dessert items include picarones, fried dough covered in sweet potato flour topped with a clove-scented molasses and alfajore, a crumbly sugar cookie filled with dulce de leche. (Broward Palm Beach New Times, June 23, 2011) As Peruvian food becomes better established, expect to see more fusion dishes.

One

seemingly novel menu item at Don Alex Peruvian-based restaurant in Jackson Heights, New York in Queens is French fries served with a warmed sauce consisting of mayonnaise, mustard, and catsup with little pieces of hot dog added. It is accompanied by a side salad and is called Salchi Papa, which translates to mean hot dog fries. (yahoo.com, Oct. 18, 2011)

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This sighting is also consistent with the recent trend of combining several individual, popular condiments to achieve new flavors.

Southern Revival The unrelenting economic distress is bringing with it greater focus on food and culture closer to home. The growing popularity of Southern food across the country may in part be attributed to this cuisine’s comfort food qualities, traditional reliance on trendy vegetables including greens and sweet potatoes, and adaptability to local area preferences. The 2012 Zagat Guide to New York City lists Southern food as the top trend, where it is on offer at restaurants such as the Red Rooster in Harlem and The Cardinal in the East Village. (Associated Press, Oct. 5, 2011) Award-winning chef Marcus Samuelsson created Red Rooster to celebrate the roots of American cuisine. Menus include contemporary and improvised renditions of foods and dishes such as cornbread, yams and sweet potatoes, collard greens, succotash, blackened catfish, and country ham. Given that Tuesday is Latin Night at Red Rooster, celebrating the Latin flavors of Spanish Harlem, perhaps it is no surprise that the menu includes dishes that feature ingredients and cooking styles prevalent in Central and South America such as Wild Striped Bass served with Cassava Salad, Mole and Tomatillo or Coconut Rice & Peas, made with yellow and red lentils, coconut and papaya. (redroosterharlem.com, viewed Oct. 19, 2011; marcussammuelson.com, viewed Oct. 19, 2011) At The Cardinal, diners can choose three meats on the BBQ Plate from ribs, pulled pork, brisket, and hot links. Pork chops are served smothered and fried with red eye gravy. The restaurant uses free range chicken, grass fed beef, heritage pork and the bacon and sausage are house-made. Traditional sides include baked beans, black-eye peas with chow chow, candied yams, fried green tomatoes, corn pudding, okra and a pickle plate. In addition to sandwich versions of the dinner meats, lunch offerings include a Fried Catfish sandwich, Bacon, Lettuce and Fried Green Tomato sandwich and Pimento Cheese sandwich with deviled eggs. Only three items can be found on the dessert menu – Pie of the Day, Banana Pudding and Pickled Peaches and Ice Cream.

The menu states that sodas are made with

sugar cane. (menupages.com, Oct. 19, 2011; blogs.villagevoice.com, Sept. 20, 2011) The growing Southern food phenomenon isn’t just happening in New York City. Star chef Hugh Acheson, judge on Season 9 of Bravo network’s Top Chef and author of recently released cookbook, A New Turn in the South published by Random House, has created a neoJanuary 2012

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retro Southern cooking restaurant in a renovated warehouse in Athens, Georgia. In creating menu items for his newest restaurant, Acheson has studied old Southern cookbooks, researching the history of the dishes. “I have virtually no interest in molecular gastronomy, but I do have an interest in showing the difference between how people fried chicken 20 years ago and how they do it now. I just want to take the past and make it more current, with beautiful ingredients and straightforward flavors.” Acheson contemporizes his dishes with what the world can offer; kimchi to add a unique low level heat to collard greens and smoky paprika vinaigrette to dress up Gulf Coast shrimp. For spreading on warm biscuits made with bacon and scallions, Acheson adds sorghum syrup to butter instead of using honey. His boiled salad dressing is made with butter instead of oil. More avant garde dishes include Rack of Lamb with Caramelized Onion Jam and, for dessert, Grits with Sweet Tea Pudding topped with butternut squash, apples and pecans. (Food & Wine, Nov. 2011) Several food trucks selling adaptations of Southern cuisine have appeared in various cities in the last year or two, including LA, Omaha and Chicago. Launched this past summer, the Southern Mac & Cheese Truck serves approximately two dozen alternating mac & cheese items in Chicago. Past menu choices have included Andouille Sausage and Crawfish, Sun Dried Tomato, Caramelized Onions and Smoked Gouda, Cheddar Cheese with Grilled Vienna Beef Franks and Pulled Chicken, Buffalo Sauce and Blue Cheese. A description on www.foodtrucktalk.com states, “The Southern Mac & Cheese Truck stands out by serving outstanding mac and cheese specialties fused with unique flavors and ingredients.” (www.foodtrucktalk.com, Aug. 11, 2011) Ty’s Amazing™ Southern Cuisine food truck in Omaha, NE specializes in New Orleans’ cuisine and features the traditional Muffaletta sandwich, Miss Jean’s Jambalaya (Andouille, chicken and rice), and Cajun BBQ Rib sandwich and dinner.

(tysamazing.com, viewed Oct. 19, 2011)

In LA, food truck

Willoughby Road has been serving up Southern cuisine with a twist since at least early 2010, combining traditional Southern-style smoked meats with internationally inspired rubs and sauces. Examples of past menu offerings include Atlantic cod po’boy with kale, fennel,

bacon and sweet mustard aioli, curried grits with shrimp, sharp cheddar grits with lemongrass sautéed shrimp topped with pickled ginger and curry oil, fried black-eyed peas with Spanish chorizo, stuffed crawfish beignets, candied yams with blue cheese and truffle honey and pulled pork sandwich with Thai slaw.

(blogs.laweekly.com, Jan. 11, 2010;

pardonmycrumbs.blogspot.com, April 19, 2010)

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Celebrating U.S. Regional Ingredients Packaged Facts expects there will be even more regional ingredients featured in processed foods and on restaurant menus in 2012, continuing the trend of the last few years. Examples include Smucker’s introduced its Orchard’s Finest line of preserves promoted as, “When you want high quality preserves with a unique variety of fruit, choose Smucker’s Orchard’s Finest Preserves and enjoy the taste of premium fruit preserves.”

Varieties include: Pacific

Mountain Strawberry, Coastal Valley Peach Apricot, Northwoods Blueberry, Michigan Red Tart Cherry and Northwest Triple Berry.

(www.smuckers.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011)

Similarly, Friendly’s offered The Vermonter, a burger with melted Vermont white cheddar cheese and maple pepper bacon among the other toppings. (www.friendlys.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011)

Mexican Misconceptions: Appealing to the Hispanic Population While many consider Mexican passé, flavor company FlavorChem Corporation is an example of a firm that sees opportunity. Instead of focusing on mainstream consumers, this firm is working on identifying and developing flavors for products that appeal to the growing numbers of younger Hispanics in the United States. The United States census indicates that in 5 to 10 years, 35% to 40% of teenagers will be Hispanic. Phil Sprovieri, Vice President of Sales and Marketing at FlavorChem Corporation thinks there are opportunities for new product categories, including beverages. Based on visiting Guadalajara and observing the roadside beverages for sale, he believes horchata, tamarind and lime beverages have room to grow in the United States, in locations outside Los Angeles. These flavors are part of the company’s line of Hispanic flavors that includes guava, mango, piña colada and chocolate with cinnamon. (FoodProcessing.com, Sept. 28, 2011) According to research by Latinum Network conducted between 2005 and 2008, Hispanic consumers created over $9 billion of new value in food and beverage in dormant or declining categories, such as fish and seafood, fresh fruit juice and dairy products.

In growing

categories they created $5.9 billion in new value, representing 20% of the growth in categories that include vegetable juices, fruit drinks, meat, including pork, ham and mutton, and frozen meals, which is the highest growth category for this demographic group. (Convenience Store Decisions, June 2, 2011)

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What Foodies Want: U.S. Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal Travel + Leisure magazine conducted a survey of their readers to understand which U.S. cities have the greatest appeal to self-proclaimed foodies across various categories including food and drink, best big name eateries, neighborhood cafes, ethnic cuisine and farmers’ markets. (www.travelandleisure.com, Sept. 2011) Key among the findings is that today’s food enthusiasts are interested in a variety of food experiences, not just dinners at high-end, white tablecloth restaurants. Not surprisingly, farmers’ and other markets are increasingly important, consistent with the nationwide farm-to-table trend and interest in the use of fresh ingredients. In this context, fresh and local are often integral to creating revered and soughtafter regional specialties. For example, local beef is important in a popular Nashville burger joint while “boat-to-table” seafood is fundamental in Providence, RI. Travel + Leisure magazine reader survey results for top destination cities for ethnic foods are shown in Table 2-1. The top-ten list includes both major cities and those specifically known for their cuisine including New York, San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans. Worth noting are the seemingly high rankings of smaller, less well known travel destinations for food enthusiasts, including Providence, RI and Santa Fe, NM. In addition to being food travel destinations, there may be opportunities to extend culinary hallmarks of these cities to other locales within the United States, where ingredient heritage and local availability make it possible. Food trucks and carts represent a relatively easy and low risk way to extend the reach of regional specialties.

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Table 2-1 Top U.S. Destination Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal Rank

City

1

New York City

2

New Orleans

3

Providence

4

San Francisco

5

San Antonio

Tex Mex - Queso & Chile-sauce; Tamales, Tostadas (Barbeque also big)

6

Chicago

Japanese BBQ-style Robata (Roka Akor, Tokio Pub)

7

Honolulu

Hawaiian specialties - Kahlua pork, raw poke; Sushi

8

San Juan, P.R.

Lechón—spit-roasted suckling pig, sold at roadside cafés

9

Santa Fe

10

Washington, DC

11

Houston

12

Los Angeles

13

Miami

Specific Food Mentioned Creole

14

San Diego

15

Portland, OR

Namu foodcart - Korean Hawaiian fusion

16

Seattle

Tibetan-themed Ting Momo

17

Savannah

Southern - heavy on coastal oysters, crab and shrimp

18

Boston

19

Philadelphia

20

Austin

21

Charleston

22

Denver

23

Phoenix/Scottsdale

24

Minneapolis/St. Paul

25

Atlanta

26

Las Vegas

27

Kansas City

28

Salt Lake City

29

Baltimore

30

Memphis

31

Nashville

32

Dallas/Fort Worth

33

Portland, ME

34

Orlando

35

Anchorage

Barbecue

Barbecue Tex Mex, Barbecue, Steak

Fresh-caught salmon; reindeer sausage

Source: Travel & Leisure Magazine reader poll - data shown for potential visitors, not residents. Published September 2011.

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Providence - Portuguese Roots Plus Peculiar Pleasantries Owing to its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, Providence is well known for its seafood, especially clams. It is also home to Johnson & Wales University’s highly regarded culinary program. This combination means there is some terrific food on offer, including at nationally acclaimed Al Forno. In addition to spicy Clams Al Forno, the appetizer menu includes Gratin of Oysters with spicy rouille and herbed bread crumbs, Fried Calamari with arrabbiata sauce and Crispy Cod Cakes with smashed Avocado. (www.alforno.com, viewed Dec. 17, 2011) Rhode Island has a higher percentage of Portuguese Americans than any other state, and Portuguese meals and ingredients are common. Other immigrants include Italians, French Canadians and most recently, Africans, especially from Liberia. Linguica and chourico are two types of Portuguese sausage that are frequently found on menus throughout the state. Stuffies, hard-shell quahog clam stuffed with chourico is a local seafood specialty, as are clam cakes – chopped up quahog fritters fried in a heavy batter. (culinarytravel.about.com, viewed Oct. 23, 2011) The Madeira restaurant is known for its authentic Portuguese food. Dried cod is a featured ingredient, served fried in Bacalhau ‘a Narcisa which is served topped with sautéed onions, garlic and olive oil; served grilled in Bacalhau Assado na Brasa, along with boiled potatoes and in Bacalhau Cozido it is served boiled with boiled potatoes, chickpeas and hard boiled eggs. (www.madeirarestaurant.com, viewed Dec. 17, 2011) It is also said that the dinner was invented in Providence in 1872, known for foods including traditional johnnycakes, or corn cakes. The Modern Dinner in Pawtucket was the first dinner to be placed on the National Historic Register. Other surprising food delights include the New York System hot weiner, or gagger, a Rhode Island specialty that when served “all the way up” consists of topping small reddish wieners with mustard, onions, celery salt and a special meat sauce in a steamed bun. (riroads.com, www.pagesintime.com, viewed Dec. 17, 2011) Santa Fe Specialties In 2011 The Inn on the Alameda offered a “Taste the City Different” package that included afternoon walking tours led by a chef-guide from the Santa Fe Cooking School, with four dining stops along the route. Guests had the opportunity to meet chefs and owners to learn about the traditional and contemporary influences on the city’s culinary scene. Participation at cooking demonstrations the following day offered pointers on how to incorporate

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Southwestern flavors in home cooking. In April, farmers’ markets move outdoors in Santa Fe and people are out and about. (New York Times, March 13, 2011) Local restaurants abound in Southwest flavors and cooking flair, but adventurous chefs haven’t stopped there. At Café Pasqual’s, in existence since 1979 serving local and mostly organic ingredients in a wide array of Southwestern dishes (enchiladas, chili rellenos, burritos, etc.), the menu includes smoked trout hash and Vietnamese-style squid salad. The menu at Epazote has been described as “inspired new world cuisine” and Chef Fernando Olea is known for his moles. A mole rosa made with beets, pine nuts, almonds, white chocolate and chipotle chilies is served with grilled halibut, a mole verde is served with chicken and mole poblano accompanies duck breast. An upscale interpretation of Santa Fe’s cuisine can be found on the breakfast menu at the Rosewood Inn of the Anasazi where Anasazi Benedict consists of a stack of corn chipotle pancakes topped with sliced chicken apple sausage covered with a spicy jalapeno hollandaise sauce. Other breakfast menu items have included Blue Corn and Blueberry Flapjacks with strawberry butter, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito and the Ranchero Breakfast Skillet – roasted potatoes, black beans, asadero cheese and red and green salsas with eggs. (Chicago Tribune, March 1, 2011)

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Chapter 3

Chapter 3: Produce Predominates

Produce Predominates

Fruits and vegetables, particularly locally grown ones, will be the main attraction when it comes to food trends in 2012. The desire for more locally grown foods has resulted in huge growth in the number of farmers’ markets over the last few years along with community support agriculture (CSA), community garden plots, rooftop gardens, raised bed gardens and kitchen gardens.

Food retailers, independent and chain restaurants and packaged food

manufacturers continue to work hard at finding ways to participate in the local food trend sweeping the nation. Taking pleasure in learning about the varieties and origins of vegetable seeds and interest in pickle and jam making and other food crafts has been revived. While consumer values driving interest in these areas have more to do with knowing and trusting where our food comes from, many of these trends also dovetail quite nicely with the dire economy and associated intense focus on frugality.

Heirlooms: Starting with Old, Very Old, Seeds Packaged Facts predicts that more heirloom enthusiasts will likely be found in 2012 as interest in vegetable gardening continues at a fierce pace and general availability of heirloom varieties at farmers’ markets and elsewhere continues to rise. The relatively recent surge in heirloom vegetable and seed popularity stems from many factors, most notably the desire to preserve genetic diversity. Heirloom fruit and vegetable varieties also foster nostalgia for less common and generally more distinctive flavors, textures and visual appeal that make them both enjoyable and generally intriguing. In terms of specific heirloom fruits and vegetables, tomatoes typically have thinner skins and are juicier and more flavorful than those grown from hybrid seeds. Two of the better known heirloom tomato varieties are Brandywine, with a pinkish-red skin that is fairly delicate and has a superb flavor; of comparable flavor and possibly more visual appeal is Cherokee Purple, a plump and meaty purple-brown tomato with green shoulders when ripe. (insteading.com, Jan. 29, 2011)

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Heirloom tomatoes are available in a wide range of shapes, sizes and colors – yellow, orange, pink, purple-black and green with stripes. (The Saturday Evening Post, March 1, 2010) This goes a long way to explain why more chefs are featuring heirloom varieties in dishes on all parts of their menus. While it is often mentioned that heirloom varieties are less disease resistant and don’t travel well over long distances, the recent trends for restaurants to grow their own vegetables or otherwise source them locally makes it possible for them to reap similar benefits as home gardeners. With all the recent positive press related to heirloom seeds and varieties, some perceive there is some snobbery among gardeners. All vegetable plants were heirloom plants until just after World War II when hybrid seeds made their way into seed trade markets. The designation of heirloom refers to any seeds or plants that have been cultivated for at least 50 years and which are open-pollinated. They are not genetically modified in any way. Seeds are saved for re-growing from year to year instead of using new seeds each season. (The Saturday Evening Post, March 1, 2010) Saving and replanting just the most successful seeds makes it possible to create a seed stock specifically adapted to a particular plot of land and growing conditions. Seed banks exist to make sure heirloom plants are perpetuated. A national heirloom list ensures that vegetable cultivars or heirloom seeds are not altered over time. (www.healthorganics.com, viewed Oct. 25, 2011) The Seed Savers Exchange located in Decorah, IA is one of the largest organizations dedicated to preserving, collecting, growing and distributing heirloom seed. (insteading.com, Jan. 29, 2011)

Ratcheting Up “Real” with Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Headed into 2012, Packaged Facts expects savvy restaurant chains, especially fast casual and quick serve chains, to devise more appealing ways to add fruits and vegetables to their offerings and promote them in ways that communicate health, freshness and “real food” value. According to Nancy Kruse, Menu and Food Trends Expert and President of the Kruse Company, “Restaurant operations at all levels, especially the chains, are signaling the use of real food from real farmers.”

As a result of consumers wanting healthier meals, Rich

Dachman, Vice President of produce for SYSCO’s FreshPoint fresh produce distribution company in Houston said, “Simply put, it’s almost impossible to get healthier items without adding more produce.” (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) On Wendy’s website at the Garden Sensations® Salads tab, there is a quote from Wendy Thomas, daughter of the chain’s founder, “When it comes to salads, we’re committed to

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using FRESH vegetables prepared fresh in every restaurant.” (www.wendys.com, viewed Nov. 30, 2011) The company ran an ad featuring the grower supplying Wendy’s with strawberries

for

their

limited

time

Berry

Almond

Chicken

Salad

last

year.

(www.youtube.com, May 30. 2011) Produce Promises at Progressive Fast Casuals A number of newer fast casual chains are committed to providing customers with the freshness and health benefits associated with fresh produce. Beautifull! of San Francisco caters to Millennials, mothers and younger patrons interested in health and eating well based on the notion that Ingredients + Preparation = Taste + Health. One of the more popular menu items has been the Golden Beet Salad with Verjus and Tarragon Vinaigrette. The beets are roasted whole in their skin, then peeled and cut into wedges. Golden beets are selected over red beets for their flavor and because they don’t stain. Another popular side dish is Kale and Arame Salad with Sesame-Tamari Vinaigrette. (www.beautifull.com, viewed Oct. 17, 2011) Unforked, a new restaurant concept in Overland Park, KS, focuses on using in-season, healthful foods in a “fast-fresh” approach to convenient, quality-driven value dining. Chef and Director of Innovation & Sustainability Rob Corliss thinks of Unforked as “a flavor joint,” and indicates that the priorities are “local first, where we’re supporting local infrastructure, Good Agricultural Practices and organics.” Built on Latin flavors and inspired by street food, the restaurant lists its produce suppliers on the menu, as is often done at finedining restaurants. Sure to convey both quality and freshness is the restaurant’s practice of giving guests a basket of oranges to run through the industrial juicer when they order orange juice. In addition to letting customers squeeze their own juice, they offer Dolce Vida sides for $2.50 featuring seasonal fruit. In the spring it might be 6 – 8 strawberries; in the summer some cantaloupe or a wedge of watermelon, and in fall, a whole pear. Beverages at Uncorked also revolve around produce, with house-made aguas frescas in lavender-lemonade and hibiscus-rose. (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) Brussels, Belgium based concept Le Pain Quotidien built around artisanal organic breads, operates 51 restaurants in the United States emphasizes serving food that is “good for our bodies, our communities and our earth.” Invariably, this involves produce. The focus is on simply prepared food using high quality ingredients and the chain’s demographics skew heavily female between the ages of 25 and 55. Menu items include Roasted-Stone-Fruit Oatmeal served with apricots, peaches and organic granola and Six-Vegetable Quiche with artichoke and garden vegetables. The Organic Red Quinoa entrée salad made with arugula, January 2012

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artichoke hearts, chickpeas and basil pesto is a bestseller and a signature item is Tartines, Belgian/French open-faced sandwiches including one selection in Avocado with chickpeas, cucumbers and spicy tahini. (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) Juicing It Up Packaged Facts expects juicing with fresh fruit and vegetables, both at home and in restaurants, will be a growing trend in 2012.

Freshly squeezed juice offers great taste, is

perceived as healthy, and is considered fresh. The beverage menu at Tag | Raw Bar in Denver, CO lists “Fresh Shot of the Day,” described as “fresh juiced fruits and veggies to excite the palate.” (tagrawbar.com, viewed Dec. 4, 2011) Martha Stewart revealed the ingredients in her daily green juice that she refers to as “the secret of life”. They include pears (from her trees), celery, spinach, cucumber, orange peel, ginger root and papaya, with the exact blend changing seasonally. It is reported that many staffers also consume it. (WSJ Magazine, Dec. 2011) Produce Pronto: On-the-Go and At Home According to Pamela Riemenschneider, Editor of Produce Retailer, “The biggest trend in packaged produce right now is in single serve fruits and vegetables in plastic bags and clamshell packaging. Some companies are sizing packages for car cup holders. All of these single serve items are trying to find their home in the produce department, which is leading to the development of convenience sections within the department. A store like Target with its P-Fresh initiative or Walgreens would be a prime target for one of these.” In 2012, look for producers to introduce new packaging formats for fresh and freshly prepared produce to increase both convenience and portability for consumers.

Packaged

Facts expects the current trend of more single serve and on-the-go packaged fruit and vegetable offerings to be on the rise in the coming year and for home use, more salad kits that include vegetables. Fruit & Veggies On-the-Go Late in 2011, Crunch Pak announced that it was launching single-serve DipperZ in four combinations: Sweet Apple Slices with caramel dip, Tart Apple Slices with caramel dip, Sweet Apple Slices with chocolate dip and peeled Baby Carrots with ranch dip. Each combination has 80 calories or less with shelf life estimated at 30 days. According to the company’s Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, “Produce-based snacks are on the 26

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rise, and will likely continue to grow along with the emphasis in the United States on eating a diet full of fruits and vegetables. (www.crunchpak.com, Oct. 5, 2011) Leading the way in the dried fruits category heading into 2012 is Jamba, Inc. with all-natural, bake-dried, 100% fruit chips sold under the Jamba brand through a licensing agreement with Bare Fruit LLC. Available in Fuji Apple, Granny Smith Apple and Mango, each on-the-go package will contain at least two servings without any artificial flavors or preservatives, no artificial colors and no high fructose corn syrup. According to Julie Washington, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Consumer Products for Jamba Juice Company, “This latest offering, created with Bare Fruit, leverages our collective expertise in fruit to create a line of wholesome snacks that are lower in calories, higher in fiber and naturally sweet.” (www.marketwatch.com, Oct. 17, 2011) Fresh blueberries from Market52 are packaged in 1.2 ounce single serving pouches for convenient snacking and marketed as brainberries, fresh blueberries labeled “washed and ready to eat. Brainberries are positioned as a super antioxidant snack” designed for on-the-go snacking. (www.brainberries.com, viewed Dec. 5, 2011) Naturipe Farms has also introduced more conveniently packaged fresh blueberries as Berry Quick Snacks sold in 3-in-1 single serve individual trays, washed and ready-to-eat. (www.naturipefarms.com, viewed Dec. 5, 2011) In terms of portable vegetable snacks, in March 2011 Grower Services LLC introduced Love Beets, a 3.5 ounce sectioned, clear plastic clamshell containing vacuum packed beets, cheddar cheese cubes and crackers along with a fork.

Ready-to-eat vegetable snacks

targeting kids include Foodles and Quick Snacks from Church Brothers and True Leaf Farms in partnership with Disney Garden. Foodles are packaged in a tray having the contour of Mickey Mouse’s head with the ears molded to be separate compartments. Varieties include Pretzel Tray (mixture of carrots, celery, pretzels and cheese dip), Ants on a Log (celery, peanut butter and raisins) and Veggie Tray (celery, carrots and tomatoes with low fat ranch dressing). All Foodles varieties meet the “Better-for-You” nutritional standards of Disney Garden. Single-serve Quick Snacks are available in Celery and Peanut Butter and Carrots and Ranch Varieties. (www.trueleaffarms.com, viewed December 6, 2011) Salad and Cook-Ready Veggies: Available On Demand To make at-home vegetable preparation easier, Ocean Mist Farms plans to introduce a Season & Steam Microwavable Artichoke Pack in 2012. January 2012

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contains two trimmed green globe artichokes and gives the consumer the option of adding seasonings before heating. The bag decreases cook time from thirty minutes to just six or seven minutes. (www.thepacker.com, Oct. 25, 2011) As for the salad category, Pamela Riemenschneider commented, “There is a switch taking place from bags to recloseable clamshell packaging that works better for smaller households.” Innovative new salad kits are making it more convenient to enjoy more nutritious salads. Earthbound Farm introduced Lifestyle Salad Kits, naturally nutrient-dense and all-organic salad kits containing one cup of vegetables, whole grains, plant-based protein and flavor. Varieties include Fresh Balance – organic baby spinach and quinoa with sunflower kernels, dried blueberries, balsamic vinegar, olive oil and sea salt (gluten free); Whole Power – organic mixed baby greens, whole-grain bulgur wheat and wheat berries with garbanzo beans, dried cranberries and red wine vinaigrette; and Mighty Energy – organic baby lettuces and black bean and corn salad with five-seed, stone-ground corn strips and green tomatillo vinaigrette. All are packaged in eco-friendly post-consumer recycled PET clamshells. The ingredients in the kits are individually wrapped in easy-open pouches. (Food Processing, Nov. 2011) Also adding vegetables to salads is Dole. The company will be rolling out a line of Extra Veggie Salads in the first quarter of 2012. Varieties include Baby Spinach and Spring Mix with Grape Tomatoes; Veggie Spring Mix with Snap Peas and Classic Spring Mix with Garden Vegetables – radishes, carrots and red cabbage.

Research conducted by Dole

indicated that 87% of consumers like crunchy vegetables to complement leafy greens with 75% saying they always add vegetables to their salads. (www.thepacker.com, Oct. 18, 2011)

Popular Produce Heading into 2012 it can be expected that there will be more interest and sales of all types of vegetables. Packaged Facts predicts that winter squash, turnips, specialty mushrooms and various greens, including a broader array of kale varieties, will be especially popular in 2012. At retail, the number of reports of new product introductions of vegetables, including fresh, canned, frozen, and frozen potatoes (tracked separately) for the 52 weeks ending Nov 30, 2011 was over 500, more than twice that for the comparable period two years earlier, in 2009 (Productscan). According to data collected by The Packer, vegetables showing the greatest increases in sales between 2009 and 2010 were asparagus (+13%), squash (+10%) and sweet potatoes (+14%). Of 11 vegetables reviewed for this report, only artichokes showed a decline

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in sales (-1%) over this timeframe. All others showed increases as follows: broccoli (+8%), cabbage (+7%), carrots (+4%), cauliflower (+8%), specialty mushrooms (+3%), potatoes (+8%) and spinach (+5%). (www.thepacker.com, July 2010) Based on his experience growing 70 acres of fresh market organic produce, Richard de Wilde, Agricultural Consultant and Owner of Harmony Valley Farm in Viroqua, WI indicated that there has been an increase in demand for celeriac, certain types of turnips, kale and greens in general. “We can’t grow enough celeriac. Interest in kale has increased tremendously over the last several years. We sell it all summer long.” Greens Packaged Facts predicts that greens in general will become more popular in 2012 based on greater availability in more convenient forms coupled with growing awareness of the nutritional benefits and growth in Southern cooking across the United States. Kale, in particular, continues to develop a following, with more experimentation of the different varieties. Recently introduced by San Miguel Produce, Inc. of Oxnard, CA are two Cut ‘n Clean Greens cooking kits, Crazy ‘bout Collards and Comfort Greens, a blend of collard, mustard and turnip greens.

Both kits feature greens, red cabbage, onion, bacon and a

seasoning packet. The company also introduced a new variety of bagged greens, curly spinach. It joins the 19 other varieties of bagged and triple washed greens the company offers: collards, turnip, curly mustard, flat mustard, spinach, kale, green chard, red chard, rainbow chard, beet, Country Greens (collard, mustard, turnip) and Euro Greens (Swiss chard, mustard greens, turnip greens and kale). (www.cutnclean.com, viewed Dec. 4, 2011; www.thepacker.com, Dec. 2, 2011) Spinach salad has been increasing in popularity in recent years, with 85% of consumers indicating they used spinach as salad in 2010 versus 78% in 200. Fewer (67%) reported using spinach as a side dish. There has been a slight preference for baby spinach, with 55% indicating so, up from 52% in 2009. (www.thepacker.com, July 2010) Turnips Packaged Facts predicts that turnips will gain in popularity in 2012 with a multitude of uses from condiment to a main feature in savory pies. One indicator of this was a recent Wall Street Journal article devoted to preparation approaches, including a recipe for Hugh Acheson’s Buttered Turnip Greens with Sesame and Halloumi. At John Fraser’s Dovetail

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restaurant in New York City, turnips are prepared in a fashion similar to ceviche. First the vegetable is poached in a cumin vinaigrette at low temperature, much like sous vide, and then tossed with quinoa, a spicy habañero puree, mint and some sweetness derived from dried apricot, husk cherry or honey. Other, more common preparation methods recommended for appreciating turnips’ distinct flavor and sharpness include roasting, gratinating and pureeing. Small turnips can be cooked and served alone with butter and sea salt, or combined with other root vegetables. Uses for the mild kabu or Tokyo or Hakurei turnip associated with Japanese cooking include pickling (stem and greens), grated over steamed fish, braised in dashi broth and used to improve on miso soup. At Seattle’s Palace Kitchen, Chef Dezi Bonow makes a creamy turnip soup with bacon and Sherry. At Athens, GA restaurant the 5&10, Chef Hugh Acheson uses brined leaves of Hakurei or Scarlet turnips and sears the halved stem, simmering them until tender after sautéing to combine both in one dish containing greens and stem. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 26-27, 2011) Specialty Mushrooms The Mushroom Council reported that sales of specialty mushrooms, such as shitake, enoki, maitake and wild varieties grew over 9% in 2010. This growth was fueled by the increase in cultivated mushrooms that were previously only available in the wild. This has eliminated seasonality constraints, allowing chefs to develop menu items featuring specialty varieties year round.

As such, Packaged Facts predicts that specialty mushrooms will grow in

popularity in 2012. Surprisingly, during the recession specialty mushroom sales remained strong. The explanation provided for this is that instead of dining out, consumers purchased more unique ingredients for home preparation. (www.thepacker.com, Oct. 26, 2011)

Vegetables: The New Luncheon Meat? The heightened interest in vegetables generally will likely benefit vegetarians and vegans yearning for a thoughtful selection of satisfying lunch and dinner choices when eating away from home. Packaged Facts anticipates that creativity with vegetables in this fashion will be appreciated more than ever. No. 7 Sub is an example of a local New York restaurant with a shop in Manhattan and another in Brooklyn that is doing just that. While meat sandwiches are available, vegetarian offerings include Broccoli with Lychee Muchim, Ricotta Salata and Pine Nuts, Zucchini Parmesan with Fontina, Sweet Onion and Pickled Jalapenos and BBQ potato chips, Roasted Cauliflower with potato chips, scallions, raisins and smoked French dressing and General Tso’s Tofu with yellow squash, shiso and pickled ginger. (no7sub.com,

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viewed Nov. 30, 2011)

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Nancy Kruse commented, “This is an interesting approach for

making vegetables the star of the sandwich. Campus dining will take this concept and run with it. Anywhere you have a significant population of vegetarians and vegans, this could work.”

Potato Appeal At the same time that Dr. Walter Willett and Dr. David Ludwig of the Harvard School of Public Health would prefer to see the 2010 Dietary guidelines call for limiting potato consumption, French fries are getting a lot of attention. At the high end, fries prepared in duck fat, served Belgian style and even as poutine can be found on more independent restaurant menus. As for the chains, Menu and Food Trends Expert and President of the Kruse Company, Nancy Kruse, points out, “The French fry category as a whole is very hot right now. The trend is towards more and better French fries, particularly fresh cuts. It’s a huge category. They’re being made in the back of the house from real potatoes – not coming in frozen. Five Guys, the fastest growing chain, is doing it, Chick-fil-A is making many items in the back of the house; one is waffle potato fries using whole potatoes with skin on, and several smaller chains are also switching to fresh fries.” Beyond the chains, fresh cut fries are also hot on the food truck scene. The Cravings Food Truck of Tallahassee, FL offers several menu items that feature fresh cut fries including the Seminole Pileup, consisting of fresh cut fries topped with two chicken tenders, onions, peppers, one fried egg and cheddar cheese. (cravingstruck.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011) The recent trend is towards more natural offerings. Late in 2010 Wendy’s made news when it introduced Natural Cut Fries, with some skin on, sprinkled with sea salt. Pressure on French fry quality has been intensified by other competitors: Five Guys Burgers and Fries cooks their fresh cut potatoes in peanut oil; Smashburger seasons their regular fries with sea salt and also offers sweet potato fries “toasted with rosemary, olive oil and garlic” and In-NOut cuts French fries in its restaurant every day in vegetable oil. Commenting on Burger King’s introduction of new, wider fries, Darren Tristiano, Executive Vice President for consulting firm Technomic was quoted as saying, “The competition to have good quality French fries is heating up. Making them thicker certainly makes them easier to eat, and since many of them are consumed in the car with one hand on the steering wheel, that’s probably not a bad idea.” (af.reuters.com, Nov. 29, 2011)

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When it comes to purchasing potatoes at retail, they were the No. 1 purchased vegetable by consumers in 2010 and the No. 3 most popular commodity overall. Over 84% of consumers bought potatoes in that year. While Russet remains the variety of choice, red, white and Yukon Gold were all popular in 2010. (www.thepacker.com, July 2010)

Vegetables From the Sea If you think vegetables only come out of the ground, think again. Although this trend might be slowed down by potential restrictions on exports from Japan due to radiation contamination from the crippled nuclear power facilities after last year’s earthquake, Packaged Facts expects sea vegetables to become more familiar, with increased menu appearances in 2012. According to Trendologist Kara Nielsen with the Center for Culinary Development in San Francisco, “This is being driven by a number of factors including growing interest both in Japanese food and natural foods, inherent nutritional benefits including high iron, iodine, calcium and vitamins as well as the decline in seafood availability. It is also part of the broader foraging trend among fine dining chefs who are creating elaborate ‘platescapes’ replicating a natural environment, complete with flowers, herbs, grasses, mushrooms and local animals and seafood.” For the most part, edible seaweeds fall into one of three categories: green algae, red algae (including nori) or brown algae (including kelp or kombu). They share a basic salty-savory taste from concentrated minerals and glutamic acid, lending the now much sought after umami taste. Nori is seaweed that has been dried and pressed into sheets, and is most often associated with its role in wrapping sushi, but it is also used as a seasoning, as in the case of savory snacks. It has been reported that the Seaweed Salad at Le Pain Quotidien, a 51 unit fast casual chain appealing primarily to women, has a small, but loyal, following. (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) At four shop chain Umami Burger in and around Los Angeles, the focus is on delivering outstanding flavor with food prepared from scratch. The website says, “We grind our own meat, process our own cheese and pickle our own veggies.” Kombu Relish is on the condiment list along with Umami Ketchup. (umamiburger.com, viewed Dec. 4, 2011) At Asiadog in New York, one of the Asian-inspired hot dog toppings on offer is kimchi and seaweed flakes. (www.asiadog.com, viewed Dec. 11, 2011) The Aviary in Portland, OR served Arctic Char with Nori Buerre Noisette. (www.lemonbasilpdx.com, March 4, 2011) Bon Appetit recently ran a recipe for Nori-Sesame Butter made with toasted,

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finely chopped nori and white and black sesame seeds with the suggestion to drizzle it over popcorn or grilled fish. (Bon Appetit, Oct. 2011) Closer to mainstream in the United Kingdom, renowned chef Heston Blumenthal worked with food retailer Waitrose to develop entrees that are mostly traditional fare. One small twist made on the Steak and Kidney Pie was including kelp. (www.guardian.co.uk, July 6, 2010)

Edible Plants from the Wild Foraging, also known as wildcrafting, enables chefs to feature ingredients that include wild mushrooms, elderberries, dandelions and stinging nettles. One of the up and coming foraged ingredients is Douglas fir, currently being used by a handful of chefs in a variety of ways. The Restaurant at Domaine Chandon in Yountville, CA has menued an appetizer of Douglas fir scented chanterelle mushrooms while at Crush in Seattle, King Salmon was prepared roasted on a bed of Douglas fir. At Salt of the Earth in Pittsburgh, it was included with Venison Tartare with blood orange and white chocolate. (Extreme & Edgy Flavors: Culinary Trend Mapping Report published jointly by the Center for Culinary Development and Packaged Facts, February 2011)

Bountiful Fruits Greater interest in growing fruits and vegetables, renewed interest in heirloom seeds and the expanded number of varieties possible, along with new Dietary Guidelines mean that fruit of all kinds is likely to get a lot of attention in the coming year. Packaged Facts anticipates there will be more interest in specific and local varieties of common fruits grown in North America, especially apples, but also peaches, pears and cherries. Simultaneously, expect to see more unusual or historical varieties and those better known outside of North America become more popular, such as huckleberries, gooseberries, cloudberries and loganberries. (Food Technology, Oct. 2011) In addition to enjoying fruits eaten fresh, it is expected that much of it will be prepared and preserved as DIY enthusiasts and, mostly small, processors make baked goods including pies, cider, jams and fruit butters. The availability of these food craft items at many farmers’ markets, especially when made with locally grown, varietal fruit, is likely to increase the appeal of these fruits. The greatest gains in fruit popularity based on 2010 purchase data reported by The Packer were for blueberries, with a 17% increase over 2009 followed by cantaloupe (+15%), cherries (+13), strawberries (+12%) and peaches (+11%). (www.thepacker.com, July 2010)

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Sensational Superfruits Superfruits, now perennially popular primarily for their antioxidant properties, will likely show some shifts with pomegranate and acai expected to lose some of their appeal as mangosteen and yuzu gain it. Based on data from Product Launch Analytics, a Datamonitor service, there was a notable decline in the number of new products launched containing or flavored with pomegranate and, separately, acai, for the 52 weeks ending September 30, 2011. While this suggests that these superfruits have peaked, Packaged Facts expects them to remain popular in 2012. Yuzu still has a way to go to achieve the same level of popularity as acai or pomegranate in the mainstream market. This exotic Japanese citrus fruit has a floral, tart flavor. In Japan it is widely used in soft drinks, sauces and condiments, savory snacks, confectionery and desserts. (Extreme & Edgy Flavors: Culinary Trend Mapping Report published jointly by the Center for Culinary Development and Packaged Facts, Feb. 2011) Evidence of interest in yuzu in the United States includes last year’s launch of lemon ginger yuzu gummy pandas confectionery under the Bissinger’s Naturals line made with yuzu fruit powder. (www.bissingers.com, viewed Nov. 28, 2011) Further out is sea buckthorn, the bright orange berry native to Europe and Asia that was named a superfood star for 2011 by Dr. Weil, Dr. Oz and Dr. Petticone on CBS News. Sea buckthorn has been used as an ingredient in skin care products. From a taste standpoint, its tanginess is compared to that of passion fruit, cranberries and sour citrus.

Chefs

experimenting with sea buckthorn, including famed Rene Redzepi of Copenhagen’s Noma, are substituting it for citrus in foods like sorbet and curd. (Extreme & Edgy Flavors: Culinary Trend Mapping Report published jointly by the Center for Culinary Development and Packaged Facts, Feb. 2011) Packaged Facts anticipates that blueberries and blackberries will maintain the popularity they have enjoyed in recent years, while the attractiveness of various varieties of cherries is predicted to increase further, along with their inclusion in various food and beverage categories. Trendy Tropicals Tropical fruits, their juices and flavors will remain important, particularly for beverages, alone and in combination. Coca-Cola’s Odwalla recently launched a Super Protein ready-todrink Mango Smoothie.

(www.thecoca-colacompany.com, Aug. 23, 2011)

Mango and

peach, an already popular beverage combination is expected to remain so in the coming year;

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other tropical blends are likely to include papaya and coconut, although many are based strictly on flavors, principally in the case of beverages. Data for 2010 shows that papayas were the least purchased fruit while mango purchases dropped 4% in 2010 from 2009, one of the biggest declines of all fruit types studied. (www.thepacker.com, July 2010) Tangy Citrus As for citrus fruit, both lime and lemon have enjoyed renewed interest in the last few years as a dominant flavor in categories that include beverages, as lemonade and limeade, and classic desserts, including key lime pie and lemon pound cake. This popularity is expected to continue in 2012, along with the use of lemon juice and zest for flavoring, alone and in combination with spices and herbs, such as ginger and rosemary, in a growing array of foods across both sweet and savory categories. One such example is a recipe for Hearty Root Vegetable Soup made with finely chopped rosemary and fresh lemon juice from Chef April Bloomfield of three New York restaurants, The Spotted Pig, the Breslin Bar & Dining Room and the John Dory Oyster Bar. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 26-27, 2011) A number of recipes for lemon rosemary zucchini bread have recently appeared on the Internet, including at SimplyRecipes.com. (July 8, 2011) Apples Abound Apples remain the number two most popular fruit among American consumers, behind bananas, with 85% buying them in the past year.

Estimates suggest there were once

approximately 15,000 varieties of apple (including Buckingham, Dula Beauty and Gloria Mundi) and today Red Delicious, the most popular variety, accounts for 41% of the total U.S. apple crop; 11 varieties account for 90% of all apples sold in supermarkets. In 2010, Granny Smith dropped from the number two spot to fifth place, while Fuji and Gala moved up. (Hemispheres, Oct. 2011, www.thepacker.com, viewed Nov. 29, 2011) Packaged Facts predicts that apple sales will grow in 2012, fueled by increased consumer interest in purchasing apples locally, and in appreciating varietal differences as sellers work to obtain a broader range to offer. The convergence of a growing food craft and do-it-yourself (DIY) movement and renewed interest in heirloom varieties has spurred a renaissance of sorts in apple-growing areas across the country as small producers start to make variety-specific ciders, jams, fruit butters and the like. Examples include the signature apple of Sonoma County being used in Gravenstein Apple Butter by June Taylor; Newtown Pippins apples in Josephine’s Feast Apple Butter January 2012

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with cardamom and also in the heirloom Apple Compote cooked with French mustard and Anarchy in a Jar’s Apple Butter made with Winesaps and Staymans. (Hemispheres, Oct. 2011) Packaged Facts anticipates that craft apple cider, much like craft beers, will enjoy increased popularity in 2012, continuing a small but growing trend. Apple cider case sales have increased from 145,000 in 1990 to 1.3 million cases in 2011. At Foggy Ridge Cider in Virginia’s Blue Ridge Mountains, a 300 tree test grove is home to 30 kinds of apples that are assessed for their ability to make a good cider. Sugar, acid and tannins are measured and the fruit evaluated for its flavor and texture when made into cider targeting different usage occasions, much like wine. For example, blends of Stayman, Grimes Golden and Cox’s Orange Pippin are used to create a sweet drink that pairs well with spicy food. (Hemispheres, Oct. 2011) Packaged Facts also predicts that mainstream apple cider will continue to enjoy increased popularity and more attention will be given to the specific apple varieties used. Pamela Riemenschneider, Editor of Produce Retailer commented, “It’s getting to be where generic apple cider isn’t enough anymore. It needs to be a specific type of apple from a particular locale.” This past fall, Litehouse Foods (www.litehousefoods.com, viewed Nov. 26, 2011) offered varietal-specific apple ciders in addition to its standard traditional cider blend, sold year round. Made with Washington State apples and cold pressed, they included Fuji, Gala and Honey Crisp. Fuji was described as the sweetest apple variety, Gala as having a unique sweet and mellow flavor and Honey Crisp as the most popular variety in the fall, with a unique, tart flavor, but also sweet. Invariably, interest in apple cider will spill over into experimentation with ciders made with other fruits. Before Christmas 2011, Trader Joe’s sold a Pear Cinnamon Cider as a limited time offering. The description was, “Pears being similar in flavor to apples, the flavor here is similar to apple cider, with subtle differences. The flavor is light and fruity, a little sweet, and finishes with a refreshingly tart bite.” (Trader Joe’s Holiday Guide 2011)

Food Stamps = Plethora of Produce In 2012, expect to see more widespread use of Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) cards, the modern day version of food stamps, to buy not only produce at farmers’ market, but also vegetable seeds and food-producing plants for growing at home and in community garden plots. 36

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stamp recipients are able to use them to purchase all of these items using their benefit. (Badlands Journal, June 30, 2011) While this has gone largely overlooked in the past, awareness is increasing as a result of the growing number of farmers’ markets starting to accept EBT cards. The need for this is consistent with the national attention on Michelle Obama’s anti-obesity efforts that include getting healthier fruits and vegetables in the hands of the 45 million lower income consumers receiving food stamps, and many of them living in urban “food deserts”. In Minnesota, a growing number of farmers’ markets started accepting EBT cards in 2011 such that the number of food stamp transactions tripled to over 1,900, valued in excess of $29,000. The vendors appreciate it since they are able to sell more when food stamps (in the form of the EBT cards) are accepted. (Minnesota.publicradio.org, Oct. 25, 2011) Watch to see if a trend begins to take hold whereby food stamp recipients initially purchasing fruits and vegetables at farmers’ markets start buying a few vegetable plants and seeds to grow at home, planting them in yards, containers, on rooftops or in community garden plots. This could become a societal equalizer, putting low income consumers on a level playing field when it comes to participating in the national “grow-your-own” trend.

Farmers’ Markets: Too Many, Too Few, Time for Something New? The continued growth in the number of farmers’ markets in 2011 means there could well be one now located closer to home. As shown in Table 3-1, the growth rate increased 17% over 2010, the highest annual growth rate since 1996. While many consumers are pleased to have a more convenient market with fresh, local produce and other foods, some farmers are not happy about increased competition and the need to add employee hours to participate in more markets just to realize the same overall sales and profit levels. Table 3-1 Number of Operating Farmers' Markets in the United States 1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

1,755

2,410

2,746

2,863

3,137

3,706

4,385

4,685

5,274

6,132

7,175

% Change (average annual)

--

18.7%

7.0%

2.2%

4.8%

9.1%

9.2%

3.4%

12.6%

16.3%

17.0%

% Change (2 year basis)

--

37.3%

13.9%

4.3%

9.6%

18.1%

18.3%

6.8%

--

30.9%

36.0%

Number

Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (http://www.ams.usda.gov)

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As John Spineti, owner of Twin Oak Farms in Agawan, MA points out, “It’s a small pie – it’s too hard to cut it.” (New York Times, Aug. 21, 2011)

Similarly, Richard de Wilde,

Agricultural Consultant and Owner of Harmony Valley Farm in Viroqua, WI agrees, “All the new markets are diluting the efforts of farmers who now have to go to as many as six or seven markets to sell the same amount. We have seen our sales growth reduced [at the downtown Madison, WI market] in the last couple of years because of an abundance of other markets, some easier and faster for customers to get to.” According to Stacy Miller, Executive Director of the Farmers’ Market Coalition, a nonprofit organization that supports farmers’ markets, growth has been good for most communities where there were no markets but some are saturated. Cities discussed as being saturated or nearly so include Seattle, San Francisco and Portland, OR. One culprit cited is the failure of community groups to do adequate planning to ensure that demand keeps up with supply. Grim statistics from the University of Oregon indicate that of the 62 farmers’ markets opened in Oregon between 1998 and 2005, 32, or more than 50%, failed. (New York Times, Aug. 21, 2011) Representing a different view is blogger Matt Yglesias who thinks complaints from farmers are not the real issue but rather, the desire of incumbent farmers to keep competition out of the farmers’ markets where they currently participate. Food and agriculture policy writer Tom Laskawy points out, “In a healthy food system, there need to be many outlets for fresh produce and humanely, sustainably raised meat.” Farmers’ markets are just one approach to achieve direct farmer sales, accounting for just seven cents per dollar spent.

His

interpretation of the comments about oversaturated farmers’ markets is simply that the demand for fresh, local food is rapidly growing, and that there needs to be more regional food infrastructure to give farmers more direct sales channels to allow them to access hospitals, schools and other institutions. He cites an example in Pennsylvania of the Lancaster Farm Fresh Cooperative that aggregates locally produced, sustainable produce and meat from small farmers and sells it to institutions, restaurants, wholesalers and farmers’ markets, freeing up farmers to spend more time farming. (www.grist.org, Aug. 22, 2011) It is interesting to note that this discussion is occurring just as the Economic Research Service arm of the USDA issued a report indicating that the demand for local food is growing faster than infrastructure and that the infrastructure needs to deepen to be sure that production will keep pace with growing consumer demand. (www.foodnavigator-usa.com, Dec. 1, 2011) Another concern recently addressed by the city of Minneapolis is ensuring that farmers’ markets continue to serve the intended purpose of facilitating direct trade between 38

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agricultural producers and consumers, rather than becoming marketing vehicles for other goods and services. The city council passed ordinance amendments that specify that the percentage of vendors that are agricultural producers at farmers’ markets be set at 60%. The purpose of the ordinance amendments was to better define what a farmers’ market is and is not, by codifying and clarifying existing practice designed to make sure it serves local producers. Previously, the only requirement for farmers’ markets in Minnesota’s largest city was that 75% of what they sold had to be food, local or not. The ordinance amendments provide an allowance of 15% for sellers of food processed at home, such as jams, bread and pickles; sellers of food prepared onsite and resellers of other food products. (blogs.citypages.com, Nov. 15, 2011) CSAs and Farmers’ Markets – Collaborators or Competitors? The rapid growth in the number of farmers’ markets across the country and the continued rise in home vegetable gardens are making some industry watchers wonder what the effect will be on Community Supported Agriculture (CSA).

Both are forms of direct agricultural

marketing to consumers, but as both become more popular, consumers may have a tough time deciding which one is right for them. Consumer appeal of community supported agriculture (CSA), where a share is purchased in the production of a farm and participants receive a box of produce in exchange provides a direct connection to a particular farm and its growing practices. Picking up a pre-packaged box at a designated location, sometimes at a local farmers’ market, can be very convenient for those who don’t have time to shop. The flip side is that CSA customers miss out on the whole market experience of browsing the selection and talking with multiple farmers and other shoppers. Not surprisingly, the CSA boxes typically represent less choice than is available at farmers’ markets since they usually contain just what’s in season at the local farm. (LA Times, March 4, 2011)

From the farmer’s perspective, Richard de Wilde,

Agricultural Consultant and Owner of Harmony Valley Farm in Viroqua, WI expressed a preference for doing more business via CSA over farmers’ market indicating, “The CSA is the only place we can set our own price. Also, farmers’ markets are very weather dependent. If it rains, we can end up bringing half of it home.”

Supermarket Produce – Getting More Local Given the continued interest in locally grown fruits and vegetables and more options for consumers to source them, including more farmers’ markets, a resurgence in home vegetable January 2012

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gardening, more community supported agriculture (CSA) and more community garden plots, it is no surprise that conventional supermarkets are taking measures to compete. Packaged Facts expects that in the coming year there will be more partnerships established and the expansion of existing ones between retailers and local growers, involving both higher volumes and a greater variety of locally grown fruits and vegetables for supermarket customers. Partnerships are being helped by the increased sophistication of local growers. Retailers acknowledge that they understand they must provide the right volume and quality in a “market ready” form, meaning in the right packaging with UPC codes and quality information for traceability. While the majority of retailers are motivated to work with local growers primarily to meet changing consumer tastes, more will likely follow a few behemoths, including Wal-Mart and Kroger, who are also starting to find that buying locally can result in transportation savings and reduced spoilage. Generally speaking, the larger the supermarket chain, the larger the geographic sourcing area considered local. Wal-Mart managers are encouraged to buy produce grown within 450 miles of its distribution centers regardless of the produce cost. By reducing food miles, it is most often a better deal. In addition, it will help Wal-Mart achieve its 2010 pledge to double its purchases of locally grown fruits and vegetables to 9% of its total for produce by 2015. Meanwhile, Kroger increased purchases of lettuce, broccoli and tomatoes in Texas for stores in that region instead of shipping them from California or Colorado, thereby reducing energy costs for storage, transport and refrigeration. Supervalu estimated that it is buying between 25% and 40% of its produce locally for its more than 1,100 stores including the Jewel-Osco, Albertsons and Lucky chains. While Safeway acknowledges increasing its local produce offerings over the last five years, it does not view its program as a cost savings mechanism. (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1, 2011) At Publix Super Markets of Lakeland, FL with over 1,000 units in the Southeast United States, Florida oranges, Georgia peaches, Plant City strawberries, Redlands peppers and green beans have all been locally sourced. The 223 units of West Des Moines based Hy-Vee operate with more autonomy, more often making their own deals with local growers. At their Madison, WI store, local is defined as Wisconsin-grown and signage, displays and visits by local farmers promote locally grown produce to shoppers. It was estimated that at the height of the 2011 growing season, 10% of produce items were locally grown, representing approximately 100 of a total of 1,000 produce items. One local farmer spent five to six hours

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in the store talking with customers and letting them know that his farm, just five miles away, supplied the sweet corn and green beans. (Supermarket News, Sept. 19, 2011) Pamela Riemenschneider, Editor of Produce Retailer pointed out, “Local is a strong trend. Retailers are responding by talking about the growers. There is more and more emphasis on the face behind the produce. One retailer calculated the mileage from the local farms to the store and posted it next to the display. This is something that used to happen mostly at coops. Now it’s happening at major supermarket chains. Publix in Florida displays the pictures of the growers whose produce they are highlighting that week.” In North Providence, RI, Brigido’s Markets sources local apples and acorn squash. Last year McCaffrey’s Markets three-unit chain based in Langhorne, PA sourced sweet onions locally for the first time, in addition to doughnut peaches and heirloom apples. (Supermarket News, Sept. 19, 2011) Retailer demand is mounting and they are having more of an impact on what local growers will plant on their farms. In 2011, Wal-Mart arranged to have farmers grow jalapeno peppers in 30 states, up from just 15 states in 2010, and just three locales a decade ago; Florida, California and Mexico. (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1, 2011)

Supermarket Produce Aisle – THE Place to Be Packaged food manufacturers are trying to finagle their way into supermarket produce departments as retailers undertake remodeling efforts designed to outdo their competition in this valued and high traffic section of the store. No doubt this is because produce is the number one reason why consumers choose a grocery store, according to a survey conducted by Supervalu Inc. that indicated 92% of shoppers agree. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 20, 2011) Against the wishes of most retailers, packaged goods manufacturers are hoping to latch onto the healthy, fresh and quality image of the produce department by being located there. Regardless of how this unfolds, produce is not expected to lose shelf space. (The Packer, Oct. 28, 2011) Honoring manufacturer requests could result in major changes to traditional store layouts. Kraft Foods Inc. would like the dairy department moved to the front near produce, meat and seafood to make it easier to encourage more impulse purchases. Meijer Inc. has already done this in about 10% of their stores, finding that shoppers are buying yogurt and cheese at the same rates they would buy produce or meat, and they think of them as fresh items. The Campbell Soup Company is reportedly researching the move of V8 vegetable juice from a center aisle where it is often lumped with “sugar water”, to the fresh produce section. January 2012

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Meanwhile, POM Wonderful pomegranate juice, which has benefited from being stocked in the fresh produce aisle, is increasingly losing its space to coconut waters, smoothies and other premium juices that are currently growing in popularity with consumers. A small number of products, such as refrigerated salad dressings and meatless hotdogs have long enjoyed placement in the produce section.

(Wall Street Journal, Oct. 20, 2011)

In 2012, be on the lookout for store makeovers of the produce and fresh food departments of several major grocery chains.

Currently, fresh produce typically gets 10% of store floor

space. By mid-2012, 482 store chain Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. plans to open a few dozen stores with a new layout giving 30% more floor space to fresh produce, highlighting it along with fresh meat and prepared foods in order to help drive shopper loyalty. Wood shelves and display tables will be used to give a natural image. Kroger has added low shelves and removed signs that block line of sight in the department. At one Von’s store in Pasadena, CA, the produce department has been set up right near the checkouts running across the store instead of down one side. Hy-Vee has added a second shelf to shopping carts for fragile items and a holder for fresh flowers. Generally, bananas have been moved to the back of produce sections to entice shoppers to browse, and items are often arranged so differentcolored produce sits side-by-side so it is more eye-catching. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 20, 2011; The Packer, Oct. 28, 2011) In an effort to better compete with convenience stores and gas stations, some conventional supermarkets, such as Supervalu, plan to add refrigerators to hold milk at the front of the store in addition to the dairy department. A test at Jewel-Osco and Albertsons showed that this increased milk sales. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 20, 2011)

Veggies, Veggies Everywhere – Except the Diet? Just as fruits and vegetables appear to be more widely available than ever and consumers are interested in shopping for and buying local produce, recent surveys suggest that the majority of Americans are still struggling to get their five servings a day.

The Gallup Healthways

Healthy Behaviors Index for Americans declined from just over 65% in May 2010 to just below 64% in May 2011 due to poor eating habits.

Specifically, fruit and vegetable

consumption was down. Whereas 58% of respondents reported consuming five or more servings of fruits and vegetables at least four days in the last week when asked in the May 2010 survey, only 56% reported doing so in 2011. Produce consumption was down the most for Hispanics and young people: Less than half of each of these groups got the recommended

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amount at least four days per week.

Other groups with reduced consumption in 2011 as

compared with 2010 included seniors and women, however both of these groups had the highest fruit and vegetable consumption overall in 2011 with 65% and 61%, respectively, reporting having eaten at least five servings at least four days in the last week. (www.gallup.com, June 9, 2011)

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In terms of the trends of interest for ingredients and flavors in 2012, a few of the underlying themes include heightened consumer interest in local foods, desire for real or authentic foods, maturation of do-it-yourself food crafts, concern for the environment and the planet and growing intrigue in and desire to connect with historical food roots. To follow are some of the top trends expected to influence the flavors and ingredients that help define food culture in 2012.

New Crop of Young Farmers A number of converging trends, many with connections to growing interest in local food, have new young farmers working the land.

This is particularly great news for the

beneficiaries of their labor, the consumers who value locally grown fresh fruits and vegetables. Interest in organic farming, farmers’ markets, food crafts, selling directly to local restaurants coupled with the lackluster economy of the last several years and accompanying meager urban job prospects is having the effect of elevating the image of modern farming. Central to this new trend is that the notion of farming is radically changing. Forget about the huge farm with endless rows of corn, soybeans or wheat. Think instead of a small plot of land with much smaller quantities of many types of vegetables to be sold locally to restaurants and farmers’ markets. As an example, 31 year old Idaho farmer Casey O’Leary planted flats of seeds of Swiss chard, several types of lettuce, several types of mustard greens, bok choy and Chinese cabbage for the next harvest season, all on the same day. (Northwest Food News, March 11, 2011) Neysa King, a new farmer who initially left a PhD program so she and her husband could pursue a farming internship concluded, “Farming seemed like the intersection of everything important to us - health, sustainability, financial independence, environmental responsibility and community.” They now work on a farm that sells direct wholesale to local restaurants near Austin, TX where demand is high for chard, carrots, spinach, squash and beets. (www.cnbc.com, April 26, 2011) According to Ariel Agenbroadia, a University of Idaho Small Farms educator, there is an increase in the number of young, women and minority

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farmers, often focused on local markets. In addition to those in their 20s and early 30s, many of the people who enroll in farm training programs are in their 40s, interested in doing it as a second career after early retirement or a layoff. One fairly common factor, regardless of age, is that the new breed of farmer typically does not have an agriculture background. (Northwest Food News, March 11, 2011) According to Richard de Wilde, Agricultural Consultant and Owner of Harmony Valley Farm in Viroqua, WI, “A lot of young people are interested in farming. I get calls every week. My most recent call was from a young man from Chicago. There are some training programs out there, but not enough. We take people who are more experienced and closer to being on their own. We grow 100 different vegetables. It’s very complex, very hard managing labor, cash flow, capitalization of equipment, meeting payroll, etc. I think the demand for farmers will continue; it has been slowed down some by the recession.” By looking at only national agriculture statistics, this growing trend of new farmers working smaller acreage could be missed altogether. Numbers provided by the USDA for Idaho are suggestive of what others believe is unfolding across the United States. In Idaho in 2010, the number of small farms (those with sales under $10,000) grew by 400 while the number of large farms (with sales over $250,000) decreased by 300. Overall, from 2003 to 2007, the number of farms increased 4% after decades of decline. The average size of farms founded since 2003 is 201 acres as compared with an overall average of 418 acres. The analogy has been made between today’s new farms and the craft brewing industry. Both started as small, one-off establishments that grew to become major regional forces.

(www.cnbc.com, April

26, 2011) Behind the collective force are individual farmers like Casey O’Leary, who described it this way, “This new crop of farmers sprouting up and doing it on small-scale, diversified farms, it’s not so much this radical new thing. It’s just going back to what was already being done before. And so in that way I think it does tie well into the heirloom seed idea that new farmers are somewhat like heirloom seeds. We’re just reconnecting to what was already happening before and diversifying and keeping alive all of these very different, placebased, localized agricultural economies. And that’s really exciting work.” (Northwest Food News, March 11, 2011) It also helps that there is money and training to help young farmers get started, including help developing business plans and by providing mentoring by established farmers. The National Young Farmers’ Coalition is one such organization providing support. An Internet banner ad announced a Farmer Training Program at the University of Vermont May 2 – Oct 31, 2012 with an application deadline of November 18, 2011. The tagline read, “Learn. Farm. Join 46

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the Sustainable Food Movement.”

(http://learn.uvm.edu/sustainability/farmer-training/,

viewed Oct. 26, 2011) The Land Stewardship Project in Lewiston, MN received a USDA grant and is using it to fund its Farm Beginnings program for new farmers that has been in place the past 14 years and currently has a waiting list. The economic incentive appears to be there. Farmers working less than 10 acre plots can earn $20,000 their first year and up to $300,000 within a few years with high volume crops grown direct-to-chef or to farmers’ markets.

(www.cnbc.com, April 26, 2011)

Historic Gastronomy: Recreating Recipes of Olde A new frontier when it comes to developing menus for foodies appears to be reverting to authentic, ancient recipes made with unusual ingredients. In the last couple of years, some famous chefs from around the globe, including Rene Redzepi of Copenhagen’s Noma, have been opening restaurants featuring recreations and adaptations of foods our ancestors supposedly ate.

In addition, blogs have recently appeared on the topic of historic

gastronomy, including Four Pounds Flour (www.fourpoundsflour.com) founded by Sarah Lohman, and there is more consideration being given to tracing and researching historical menus. Packaged Facts expects this trend to gain attention and greater popularity in 2012 as more chefs embrace and experiment with the concept tailored for their usual diners. Examples of ingredients in some ancient recipes include songbird, veal brains, hyssop and preboggin, which are wild greens. U.K. chef Heston Blumenthal known for his famous restaurant The Fat Duck, recently opened Dinner, a restaurant in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in London specializing in historical British dishes.

The menu includes Rice and Flesh (c. 1390),

Savoury Porridge (c. 1660), Roast Marrowbone (c. 1720) and Spiced Pigeon (c. 1780). In Evanston, IL chef Brandon Baltzley recently offered a 10-course menu inspired by Apicius, a collection of Roman recipes from the 4th and 5th centuries. The second course consisted of langoustine sausage, spelt and veal brains. Based on the ancient recipes, Mr. Baltzley hoped to experiment with pig udders and pig wombs, although these would not be offered since they aren’t included under USDA inspection, so farmers cannot legally sell them.

At Chicago’s Spiaggia restaurant chef Tony Mantuano prepared a five course

Columbus-Day themed menu inspired by Renaissance dishes from the Liguria region of Italy that included farinata, an unleavened chickpea-flour pancake and prawns with preboggin pesto.

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Since unusual, historic ingredients are not readily available, they can cost twice that of regular ingredients, resulting in much higher menu prices. As a result, most often chefs are offering historic menus in reservations-only tastings or at other events when the restaurant is normally closed. The recent interest in historic foods is a bit baffling to some, including culinary research assistant Robyn Stern, with Think Food Group, who commented, “Cooking was very bland back then. Meats were either roasted or boiled, and a lot of the same spices were repeated.” (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 12, 2011) However, it is worth noting that this trend transcends the spectrum of food expertise from Rene Redzepi and his peers at one end to mainstream home cooking enthusiasts at the other. The Saturday before Thanksgiving 2011, the Wall Street Journal Off Duty section featured an article titled “Going Native,” describing and providing recipes for an entire holiday meal using native foods and heritage ingredients such as hand-harvested wild rice, heirloom apples, stone-ground cornmeal, fresh cranberries, game birds and goat cheese. Dishes prepared with them included roast squab (pigeon) with applesage sauce, corn bread and venison stuffing with squash, roasted cranberry, grape and Swiss chard salad, beer-braised Rio Zape beans with roasted chilis and for dessert, goat cheese cheesecake with candied pepitas (pumpkin seeds) and pear and cornmeal tart. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19-20, 2011) Given the recent interest in historic foods, a lesser well known resource of the New York Public Library system has recently gotten more attention, and this looks likely to continue in 2012. Housed there as part of the Rare Book Division is the restaurant menu collection, containing approximately 40,000 menus, some dating back as far as the 1840s, comprising one of the biggest collections in the world. About one-fourth of the collection is now digitized and the entire collection may be accessed by historians, chefs, novelists and general food enthusiasts. (http://menus.nypl.org, viewed Oct. 29, 2011)

Linner & Brinner: Millennials Redefine Eating The generation known for being “me” focused and used to customizing everything is showing no signs of changing their eating habits as they enter adulthood and leave the student life behind. Shawn LaPean, Executive Director of Cal Dining at the University of California Berkeley commented, “Students want gourmet food at Wal-Mart prices, 24 hours a day.” McDonald’s Vice President of U.S. Menu Innovation commented, “People eat at all strange hours of the day.” Food manufacturers and restaurateurs will focus more on catering to

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Millennial eating habits in the year ahead. This generation is sparking an “eat-what-I-wantwhen-I-want” trend, discarding the notion of three square meals a day. As expressed by Barry Calpino, Kraft Foods Vice President of Breakthrough Innovation, “When people approach food today, it’s about anytime, anywhere and anyhow.” (www.usatoday.com, Nov. 21, 2011)

The Cravings Food Truck, started in Tallahassee, FL by recent university

graduates operates from noon to midnight. Their website states, “people should eat what they want, when they want.” (roaminghunger.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011) This 24/7 mentality makes it important to focus on snacking at all times of the day, offering an array of ingredient and flavor choices and combinations. New terminology is being used to describe some of the possibilities: Brinner, breakfast foods for dinner and Linner, a delayed lunch but earlier than traditional dinnertime. Data pointing to this eat-anything-atany-time idea, McDonald’s sells more than 20% of oatmeal outside of breakfast, Kellogg reports that more than 30% of all cereal is eaten outside of breakfast, 20% of McDonald’s cookies and apple pies are sold at breakfast and Stonyfield Farm claims that one-third of yogurt consumers say they eat it before breakfast, such as grabbing it before going to the gym or out for a run; another 20% eat it instead of dinner. (www.usatoday.com, Nov. 21, 2011) Millennials are also credited with knowing how to eat healthier diets. “This new generation understands how to eat healthy, and that will have an extraordinary impact on our economy,” said Rich Dachman, Vice President for SYSCO’s FreshPoint fresh produce distribution company in Houston. According to Technomic’s Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report from October 2010, consumers between the ages of 18 and 34 eat more natural, sustainable and organic foods than older consumers. (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) In addition to offering a wider array of foods at all times of the day, Millennial eating behaviors support the need for smaller servings. According to Nancy Kruse, Menu and Food Trends Expert and President of the Kruse Company, “Consistent with the popularity of small plates, smaller portions are gaining fans. We are starting to see growing consumer demand for smaller portions. For Millennials, small meals and snacks are the way to go to address their 24/7 grazing.” Increased interest in nontraditional ingredient and flavor combinations that blur conventional dayparts can also be explained by the 24/7 eating trend. For example, the hugely popular fried egg on top of the burger, Denny’s maple bacon sundae and Baskin-Robbins French toast ice cream. Nancy Kruse notes, “Millennials are rooted in basic comfort foods, but they are willing to try something new.” January 2012

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Younger Millennials are also credited with advancing the food craft DIY trend and the high level of entrepreneurial activity associated with Brooklyn, NY. According to Kara Nielsen, Trendologist with the Center for Culinary Development in San Francisco, “As a result of the recession, many 20-somethings are underemployed.

Seeking the recognition they are

accustomed to, a significant number of them are taking up food crafting as a means to obtain it.”

New Market Formats for DIY Food Crafts “Given that Brooklyn, NY is pretty much the center of the food universe these days, it is not surprising that new forms of marketing are being tried there, commented Kara Nielsen, adding, “Now that the DIY trend is maturing in the sense that crafters are able to monetize this practice, new ways of selling, trading, and bartering are being created and tested.” The Smorgasburg is the food market extension of the wildly popular Brooklyn Flea that is held each Saturday on the waterfront in Williamsburg with approximately 75 to 100 vendors including food entrepreneurs and established purveyors selling both packaged and prepared foods and a small greenmarket. Among the many vendors are Cemita’s 10 layer Mexicanstyle sandwich, Rob and Anna’s “dairy-free soft-serve” made entirely of bananas and Bon Chovie’s fried fresh anchovies. (www.ny1.com, June 27, 2011) Among the many other vendors are Empire Mayonnaise Company selling exotic mayonnaise flavors such as black truffle and smoked walnut, and Brooklyn Soda Works selling handmade, fresh artisanal sodas using fresh and seasonal ingredients. (empiremay.com, brooklynsodaworks.blogspot.com, viewed Dec. 11, 2011)

Gourmet Gadgets – Goofy or Godsends? Among the kitchen gadgets likely to be popular in 2012 are those that will allow home preparation more like the pros, with quality in taste and appearance equally important to speed, health and convenience. Others will allow home preparation of trendy food and beverage items currently purchased at foodservice outlets specializing in them. Some gadgets will be focused on nostalgia, both in terms of tool popularity and the dishes and recipes themselves. Perfecting Mini Pies When it comes to baking, the hottest gadgetry heading into 2012 could well become items for mini pie making, with electric pie makers leading the way. Not only do mini pies made in 50

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these machines have a professional appearance, most tout that cooking time can be as little as six minutes for four or more pies. The Breville Party Pie Creations makes eight mini pies at a time. (www.breville.com.au, viewed Oct. 30, 2011) Williams-Sonoma is betting big on mini pies, offering the Breville electric pie maker and a myriad of tools and ingredients to get started: The retailer carries an exclusive cookbook, Mini Pies by former pastry chef Abigail Johnson Dodge containing over 40 sweet and savory recipes for the electric pie maker. There are also mini pie pans to be used in a conventional oven, glass jars of Caramel Apple filling made with Pippin apples and cinnamon, and a pumpkin pie filling that just needs eggs and milk added; both labels stating “Mini Pie Filling” and then there is the mini pie lifter to help remove the hot pies from the electric pie oven. (www.williams-sonoma.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011) Recognizing the growing interest in mini pies, the King Arthur Flour website contains a tutorial of sorts, including crust and filling recipes, using an electric babycakes cupcake maker to make mini pies, mentioning use of a pushing tool to help line the cavity with the rolled pie crust and use of a tablespoon cookie scoop to fill the unbaked pie shell. The filling recipe started with leftover frozen berries. (www.kingarthurflour.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011) Since that posting appeared on the King Arthur Flour website, Babycakes introduced a Pie Maker that claims to crank out four pies in 10 to 15 minutes. The pie maker comes with a wire cooling rack and crust cutting and forming tools. (thebabycakeshop.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011) Also supporting the mini pie craze is Nordic Ware, offering 5” mini pie pans, a mini pie top cutter and selling a Mini Pie Baking Kit.

(www.nordicware.com, viewed Oct.

30, 2011) Whoopie Pies Go Wild Nostalgia may be the basis for the renewed interest in this old fashioned baked, filled sweet treat, but now that it has gone mainstream, expect to see more gadgetry on offer to make home preparation easier and extend the appearance beyond its original round, domed shape. Babycakes sells an electric whoopie pie maker that bakes 12 halves at a time while Nordic Ware offers a 12 cavity whoopie pie pan for conventional ovens and a child-oriented Funny Faces Whoopie Pie Pan with embossed words and images including “cute”, “happy”, “cool”, “yum” and smiley and other facial expressions.

A pan to make supersized eight inch

diameter whoopie pies from Wilton had been sold through Sur La Table. Recently at a bargain

price,

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(thebabycakeshop.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011; www.nordicware.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011; www.surlatable.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011) Serious Stuff for Sous Vide Fans Although still niche, there is growing interest in preparing foods using sous vide. In sous vide, food is sealed in plastic bags and then cooked in a water bath for extremely long periods at a low temperature, as compared with conventional cooking. It is not unusual for a food to cook for 72 hours at 140 F. The goal is to achieve uniform heating throughout the food, such that the outer edges and center have the same degree of doneness. Benefits claimed for sous vide include more moist, juicy, flavorful and nutritious food. In addition to gaining attention in recent years in its own right, sous vide has been associated with molecular gastronomy, raw food diets and the slow food movement, all helping to bolster interest. While it is apparent that there have been advances and recently introduced sous vide preparation devices are likely to get more attention in 2012, it appears there is considerable opportunity for further development in this area, with a general need for small appliance makers to further enhance the user-friendliness of equipment that must be extremely accurate in order to maintain the precise cooking temperature. As such, Packaged Facts predicts that there will be additional products introduced and more activity in this area in the coming year. On their website, Sous Vide Supreme states “the world’s finest water oven” and the company won the 2011 IHA Housewares Design Awards for Best in the Cooking Electrics Category. (www.sousvidesupreme.com, Oct. 30, 2011) For sous vide devotees with deeper pockets, PolyScience introduced a professional version of its immersion circulator, currently available at Williams-Sonoma. In the May issue of Vogue, Food Critic Jeffrey Steingarten put in a plug for the PolyScience unit, stating it was the best one he had ever used, citing its lighter weight, accuracy and ease of operation. (www.vogue.com, April 26, 2011) The company claims that what sets it apart from other sous vide machines is the action of the pump that circulates heated water in the cooking vessel to ensure uniform heating. The professional immersion circulator is also highly adaptable and can be clamped on the side of any stockpot or other large container. (www.williams-sonoma.com, viewed Oct. 30, 2011)

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Panini Press On As Panini appear destined to grow their following in 2012, Packaged Facts anticipates the continued popularity of Panini makers. As a sign of interest in Panini generally, note that a new food truck, Panfiniti, recently took to the streets in Orange County, CA. (The Orange Country Register, June 13, 2011) Numerous blogs, both sponsored and not, discuss selection criteria and the pros and cons of competing grills, as well as offer up a multitude of recipes to try at home. Food & Wine selected the Cuisinart Griddler as their top pick as Best Panini Press after reviewing 76 countertop appliances. (Food & Wine, Oct. 2011) The host of website paninihappy.com, Kathy Strahs, has developed recipes for an entire Thanksgiving dinner using a Panini press including brined turkey thigh and grilled smashed potatoes. (paninihappy.com, Oct. 28, 2011) Yonanas: Going Bananas With fruit smoothies being so popular in recent years, it is not a big surprise to see interest growing in gadgets that make fruit more enjoyable. In 2012, look for a familiar fruit brand, Dole Foods, the world’s largest producer of organic bananas, to team up with Healthy Foods, LLC to market the Yonanas treat maker. The Yonanas treat maker “transforms frozen bananas and other frozen fruit into a dessert that looks and tastes like an indulgent soft-serve ice cream – but with all the nutrition of fresh fruit, no additives, and with as little as 100 calories per serving.” (www.yonanas.com, Nov. 10, 2011) Already available at retailers including Target, Sears, Bed, Bath & Beyond, K-Mart and Amazon, look for the Yonanas machine to be co-branded DOLE-Yonanas. Packaged Facts predicts that as the machine gains in popularity in the coming year, more creative uses of DOLE-Yonanas, both in terms of other fruit and fruit combinations, as well as added flavor ingredients, will be discussed and shared. The introduction of this kitchen appliance is well timed with the explosion in produce popularity and the release of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010, which recommends increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. In addition to being a healthy way to drive up fruit consumption, Yonanas has been promoted as providing a lactose-free dessert, which was the original motivation behind the machine’s invention. (www.goodhousekeeping.com, June 21, 2011) At the Weight Watchers community website, an editor’s blog read “If you like bananas and you like ice cream, I think you’ll love it too. Yonanas is a cross between a food processor

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and ice cream machine, that’s no bigger than your average blender.” (weightwatchers.com, May 4, 2011) Another website called Yonanas the “Insane gadget for one ingredient ice cream.” (www.thekitchn.com, May 23, 2011) Although the Yonanas website does suggest that it can be used with other fruit, not much is mentioned about recipes or approaches beyond bananas.

Catalog and online retailer Hammacher Schlemmer is carrying the

Yonanas, calling it “The Frozen Fruit Soft Serve Processor” indicating, “The chute easily accepts berries, sliced mango, or cantaloupe, and the integrated conical spinning blade mashes and incorporates the fruit into a silky-smooth confection.” It includes a dessert storage container, four popsicle molds and a recipe booklet. (www.hammacher.com, viewed Nov. 13, 2011)

New Twists in Food Tourism The concept of food tourism traditionally conjures up idyllic scenes in quaint European villages and cities overflowing in fresh, local foods and wines (e.g. Wine and Cheese Tasting Tour of the Rhone Valley). Sure, food tours of this sort are still plentiful, but the latest food related tours to draw crowds are more “how to” oriented and are typically offered much closer to home. Packaged Facts expects these tours to grow in popularity, with more new offerings emphasizing local foods and sustainability, such as beekeeping. Agritourists Seek Farmer Chefs The farm-to-table and slow food movements are creating a new breed of tourist. Not only are they making the family farm their destination, but they are increasingly looking for farmers to provide cooking instruction, whether to get better connected to locally produced foods or to learn the “lost domestic arts” of bread baking, canning, preserving, pickling, rendering, butchering and the like. Classes range from $25 to $2,000 per person and typically start at the source of production – the field, a barn or a greenhouse. Most classes are hands-on and students harvest vegetables, gather eggs and milk cows or goats. Examples of specific types of instruction offered include boning a chicken, making ice cream, preparing soup stock and bread starter. In a butchering class at Turkey Hill Farm in Randolph Center, VT, students make sausages, country pates, bacon and head cheese. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 31, 2011) Tour de Compost Consider the Tour de Compost, which has more to do with options for handling uneaten food scraps, rather than commentary on those that are consumed. A neighborhood in the city of 54

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Minneapolis, MN recently offered a walking tour and progressive party for residents and any interested guests to tour area properties to learn tips and hints associated with composting and recycling. (Southwest Journal, Sept. 19, 2011) Home is Where the Chicken Roosts Packaged Facts predicts that more popular than compost tours heading into 2012 will be highly organized tours of chicken coops, conducted much along the lines of garden tours. They may be self-guided, and coops range from the very plain and humble to the technologically sophisticated and visually elaborate, carrying price tags of over $1,000. While the tours emphasize creativity and the aesthetics of the coops, the underlying message is clear; urban farming is becoming an established and cohesive force in the community. Many city ordinances have been changed in recent years to allow residents to keep a small number of chickens. In 2011, Pittsburgh passed an ordinance requested by residents that allows them to have up to three chickens and two beehives on a 2,000 square foot lot. Many tour participants are attempting to find out if keeping chickens is for them, and are looking for answers to basic questions, such as, are they loud, smelly, lots of work, and how do you prevent them from being killed by raccoons and hawks? Some backyard chicken-keeping enthusiasts see benefits beyond fresh eggs: The hens eat bugs and produce fertilizer to benefit the entire garden. Popularity of urban chicken coop tours is on the rise, many with catchy names including: Austin, TX Funky Chicken Coop Tour, Portland, OR Tour de Coops, Dallas’ A Peep at the Coops and the Chicks-in-the-Hood Pittsburgh Urban Chicken Coop Tour. For those unable to locate a local chicken coop tour, they are also on offer in Seattle, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Madison, WI, Bend, OR, and Davis, CA. (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2011)

Future Food: Dinner for …… 7 Billion! With the world population just having exceeded 7 billion according to expert estimates, Packaged Facts anticipates there will be more discussion about various strategies and ingredients for feeding all these mouths.

Some of those being discussed will require

overcoming cultural objections in parts of the world, particularly in the West. Not unlike the efforts of forward-thinking chefs to promote the use of sustainable seafood varieties through the creation of tasty dishes, these newly pursued ingredients will benefit from culinary showmanship to drive their acceptance. January 2012

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Breadfruit Believers Battle Bland In 2010, eBay Inc. cofounder Pierre Omidyar funded a meeting to bring together 25 breadfruit experts to develop a plan to encourage consumption and more planting. The resulting Breadfruit Initiative includes an outreach program that has enlisted chefs and restaurants to promote it along with advocates to go into schools, for now in Hawaii, to get young people interested. This prickly, football-size pod, also known as ‘ulu’ in Hawaii, is native to the Pacific Islands and a member of the fig family, packed full of calories, fiber and nutrients including potassium, phosphorous, calcium and copper.

Due to its high starch

content and occasionally mealy texture, its taste has been described as undercooked potatoes, but its texture and yeasty odor tend to remind people of fresh bread. One tree can yield 450 pounds per growing season and they have spread from the Pacific Islands to the Caribbean and Africa. Expect 2012 to show progress on the initiative at least in part due to the Inaugural Breadfruit Festival held near Captain Cook at which chefs judged a contest to find new ways to prepare and preserve the fruit. Winning recipes included ‘Ulu Tamales with Coleslaw and Salsa, ‘Ulu Tart, made with cooked breadfruit, fresh coconut milk, Lehua honey and a macadamia nut crust and a breadfruit salad with cucumbers and dill. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011) Betting on Bug Bites Watch for growing awareness and trial of entomaphagy, the eating of insects, in 2012. While much of the rest of the world has routinely included insects as part of their diets, only recently is this being proposed as a healthy, environmentally friendly and cheap source of food in the United States and Europe. Food Critic and Chef Andrew Zimmern of the Travel Channel’s Bizarre World of Foods likely deserves credit for raising awareness and interest in eating insects in the United States. In addition, books have recently been published on the topic including Man Eating Bugs: The Art and Science of Eating Insects by Peter Menzel and Faith D'Aluisio and Eat-a-Bug Cookbook: 33 Ways to Cook Grasshoppers, Ants, Water Bugs, Spiders, Centipedes, and Their Kin by David George Gordon. (www.npr.org, Oct. 30, 2011) As for the insect tastes around the globe, palm grubs are eaten in Uganda, fried dragonflies in Indonesia and Tarantulas the size of dinner plates are devoured in Venezuela. The array of insect dishes available in China includes water beetles marinated in ginger and soy sauce, deep fried scorpions on crispy rice noodles and caterpillar fungus soup. (www.npr.org, Oct. 30, 2011)

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While it is possible to get grasshopper tacos in Washington, DC, restaurants serving insects are by no means abundant. The website InsectEurope.com is dedicated to following growing interest in insects as human food and providing information. It contains lists of restaurants serving insects in various countries: eight were listed for the United States. At New York’s Toloache in Manhattan, Chapulines are Oaxacan-style dried grasshoppers with onion and jalapeno whereas at Mezcal in San Jose, CA the Chapulines are sautéed grasshoppers with garlic, lime and salt served with a side of guacamole and tortilla chips. At Typhoon in Santa Monica, there is an Insects section on the dinner menu with three listings: Silk worm larvae stir fried with soy, sugar and white pepper; Singapore-style scorpions with shrimp toast and Taiwanese

crickets

stir-fried

with

raw

garlic

chile

pepper

and

Asian

basil.

(www.insecteurope.com, viewed Nov. 3, 2011) Meanwhile, the offerings at a pre-Halloween bake sale organized by the Anthropology Club at Washington College in Chestertown, MD included cicada nachos, grasshopper kabobs and rootworm beetle dip. (www.npr.org, Oct. 30, 2011) Before insect dishes such as these become widely sought-after in the West, it will first be necessary to overcome what some describe as the ‘ick’ factor and squeamishness. Perhaps they’ll be easier to swallow if recognition of nutritional quality, especially relative to meat, gets more attention. Whereas grasshoppers are 60% protein and 6% fat, beef contains 18% protein and the same level of fat. One-hundred pounds of grain feed will yield only 10 pounds of beef, but 45 pounds of crickets. (www.npr.org, Oct. 30, 2011) Vampires, Line Up Consistent with nose-to-tail butchering, the practice of using all parts of the slaughtered animal, Packaged Facts expects to see more menu items and foods made with blood despite the tendency for most American diners to shun it. Recently, recognition that blood is high in nutrients, plentiful and affordable makes it more difficult for chefs to avoid. Food Arts, a culinary magazine for the industry carried a long essay on using blood as a food ingredient in the July - August 2011 edition. (www.foodarts.com, July 1, 2011) While blood sausage and blood pudding have long been accepted in Europe and the United Kingdom, old world regional and specialty dishes made with blood will more frequently be showcased by U.S. and Canadian chefs interested in putting more blood to good use. For example, at Italian restaurant Buca in Toronto, chef Rob Gentle has added a number of unusual dishes containing blood. Torta di sanguinaccio is a traditional, southern Italian pastry containing fresh figs steeped in grappa and espresso with buffalo-milk crème anglaise, January 2012

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chopped candied almonds with a dense, decadent base of custard made with dark chocolate and slow-tempered blood. The dessert is in high demand. Added to the main menu was spaghetti al nero de maiale, made with blood-blackened noodles, rapini, crumbled ‘nduja sausage, garlic and burrata cheese. Also in Toronto, chef Brandon Olsen of the Black Hoof menued a savory blood custard flavored with rosemary and topped with pickled pears. In Montreal, chef Derek Dammann of DNA restaurant serves panna cotta made with cream, cocoa, black pepper, lemon peel and pig’s blood, in addition to blood soup and blood pasta. At offal-laden Incanto in San Francisco, chocolate blood pudding is garnished with Bing Cherries. Blood is also being used by U.S. chefs in dark Swedish rye bread and Finnish blood pancakes served with lingon berries. At Noma in Copenhagen, awarded the world’s best restaurant more than once, chef Rene Redzepi has been marinating cauliflower and other vegetables in pig’s blood. Toronto food writer Jennifer McLagan has an entire section of her new cookbook, Odd Bits: How to Cook the Rest of the Animal devoted to cooking with blood, and she proposes that properly inspected blood be available in supermarkets in the frozen food aisle near frozen dinners. (Globe and Mail, Oct. 18, 2011)

Crossovers: Ingredients in Unexpected Places Both relatively unnoticed and already popular ingredients will be put to new and creative uses in 2012, both on restaurant menus and at home. As has been the case in recent years, Packaged Facts expects there to be considerable crossover to or from savory to sweet and from one part of the menu to others. In addition, some interesting trends are emerging in relation to approaches to ingredient combinations, preparation and presentation. Duck Fat: Good for You, or Just Good? Duck fat’s popularity has surged in recent years, coincident with reports that it is a “healthy” fat, likened somewhat to olive oil based on its higher oleic acid content, and the fact that it contains less saturated fat than butter, beef or pork fat. Although some health experts now insist that the health benefits are overstated, chefs love duck fat for its deep, rich flavor and ability to withstand high temperatures, including those used for frying. Initially slow to the party relative to Europeans, American foodies and mainstream consumers alike continue to discover the wonderful eating qualities it imparts to foods made with duck fat.

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Given duck fat’s rapid ascent in the American diet, it will not be a surprise to see it make more frequent appearances across all menu categories in 2012. Evidence of its growing popularity includes instructions and tips on how to render it, and its increased availability not only at specialty retailer Williams-Sonoma in an 11 ounce jar, but at warehouse store Costco configured in four count package of 12 ounce tubes. (dinersjournal.blogs.nytimes.com, July 29, 2011) Probably best known of foods prepared with duck fat are fries, often referred to as Belgian fries, already well on their way mainstream, and, by extension, roasted and sautéed potatoes and other vegetables, and the Canadian specialty poutine, consisting of duck fat fries served with cheese curds and duck fat gravy. Duck fat fried chicken is also growing in popularity. In Chicago at Takashi, duck fat fried chicken won accolades when the restaurant opened in late 2007. (Food & Wine, Dec. 2008) Last year Wes Johnson opened Salt in the Central West End of Saint Louis, where the duck fat fried chicken has definitely been noticed. (Riverfront Times, July 28, 2011) Then, of course, there are the seemingly unique uses of duck fat: Lush wine Bar in Chicago uses duck fat to make popcorn served at the bar, while Ripple farm-to-table restaurant located in Washington, DC’s Cleveland Park infuses it into the cocktails themselves. (LA Times, March 27, 2011; Huffington Post, Oct. 18, 2011) The big news for 2012 will be the growing appearance of desserts and sweet treats made with duck fat. Given that one of the major dessert trends is to deliver more savory characteristics, it follows that duck fat, typically considered to impart rich savory character, be used as an ingredient in sweet treats. Food & Wine deputy food editor Kate Heddings indicates that duck fat, along with lard and foie gras, are being added to cookies, profiteroles and s’mores. (Yahoo.com, Sept. 30, 2011) It has been reported that Humphry Slocombe Ice Cream in San Francisco has been selling small pecan pies made with duck fat.

(blogs.sfweekly.com, Oct. 26, 2011)

The

morethangourmet.com website provides a recipe for making duck fat pastry under the “Our Family Recipes.” (morethangourmet.com, viewed Nov. 4, 2011) Various mentions of duck fat doughnuts suggest that it is just a matter of time before they become more widely available. (www.mapleleaffarms.com, Aug. 2009) Desserts Get Peppered Up Other savory ingredients Packaged Facts expects to see continuing the crossover from savory to sweet and going even more mainstream in 2012 is a wide range of ground peppercorns. January 2012

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Humphry Slocombe Ice Cream in San Francisco offers a Salt ‘N Peppa caramel confection made with Maldon sea salt and a mixture of peppers: peppercorns and cubeb pepper.

Poblano, Szechuan and pink

(blogs.sfweekly.com, Oct. 26, 2011)

Silicon Valley’s

MercuryNews.com featured a grill recipe for marinated watermelon steak with pink peppercorn rub that includes rum, butter and mint taken from Fire It Up: More Than 400 Recipes for Grilling Everything by Andrew Schloss and David Joachim, published by Chronicle Books in May 2011. (MercuryNews.com, July 26, 2011) McCormick featured a recipe for Chocolate Crackled Cookies made with ancho chile pepper. (Good Housekeeping, Dec. 2011) Pretzel Power Perhaps the right question to ask in relation to the recent pretzel-mania is what menu category or supermarket aisle doesn’t contain some incarnation of the pretzel? Packaged Facts expects that the current momentum behind the pretzel craze will sustain it well into 2012. Two of the most popular executions are the pretzel roll and pretzel bagel, with home bakers sharing recipes on the Internet, restaurants using them for making sandwiches and serving burgers and frozen sandwich makers and big branded bakeries introducing bread products in pretzel varieties at the supermarket. The pretzel bagel is of particular note because it has gone full circle: First, the pretzel concept was executed in bagel format, then Frito Lay introduced Rold Gold brand pretzel rounds flavored as “Everything Bagels.” (www.fritolay.com, viewed Nov. 5, 2011) From Orograin Bakeries Products, Inc. sold under the Thomas brand, mini Pretz-a-bagels were introduced as a line extension of the mini bagel line in 2011. The website states, “Enjoy the soft pretzel taste you love in a mini bagel shape.” (Thomasbread.com, viewed Nov. 5, 2011) In terms of pretzel rolls, bloggers gave high marks to Hole In The Wall Burger Joint in Los Angeles, not just for “perfect burgers,” but because they are served on pretzel buns. (blogs.LAWeekly.com, Feb. 30, 2011) Friendly’s offered a Soft Pretzel Bacon Burger and BB King’s Blues Club restaurants located in Las Vegas, Memphis, Nashville, Orlando and West Palm Beach serve the Hickory Burger and the Good Ol’ Cheeseburger on “a famous BB King pretzel roll.” (www.bbkingclubs, com, viewed Nov. 5, 2011) Not surprisingly, the pretzel bun is proving to be highly adaptable for use with hot dogs as well.

Last year, SuperPretzel added Mini Pretzel Dogs to its brand line-up while

Wienerschnitzel offered a Pretzel Bun Chili Dog as a limited time offer. As part of the Lean 60

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Pockets brand, Nestle launched Pretzel Bread Sandwiches in Grilled Chicken Jalapeno Cheddar, Roasted Turkey with Bacon and Reduced Fat Cheese and Grilled Chicken with Honey Mustard (www.leanpockets.com, viewed Nov. 20, 2011; www.csnews.com, April 17, 2011) Also in 2011, Auntie Anne’s added a frozen pretzel pocket containing melted cheese, pepperoni, and Italian spices to its fundraising program. (www.auntieannes.com, Jan. 12, 2011) Blogger websites, popular cooking websites and newspaper food sections have recently posted recipes for pretzel rolls, including at Foodnetwork.com courtesy of Guy Fieri and the LA Times. (Foodnetwork.com, Oct. 9, 2011; LA Times, Oct 20, 2011) In addition to anticipating that pretzel rolls and bagels will become increasingly mainstream in the coming year, look for more uses of traditional hard pretzels as ingredients in dishes and recipes. Packaged Facts anticipates that 2012 will see more salads with pretzel croutons, more breadings, pie crusts and more ice cream and cake flavors made with pretzels, along with more pretzel ice cream cones. Last summer MaggieMoos introduced Twisted Pretzel ice cream made with chocolate covered pretzels, pecans and chocolate syrup.

(new.onesecondscoop.com, May 2011)

Earlier in 2011 it was reported on Midtownlunch.com that Momofuku Milk Bar in Manhattan introduced a pretzel cake truffle at both locations. The reviewer described it as having an outside consisting of malted pretzel crumbs surrounding a chocolate pretzel cake, characterized by both sweet and salty notes. (midtownlunch.com, Feb. 24, 2011) Also last year, another blogger was excited to report seeing PretzLcones at Balducci’s in Westport, CN. (blog.ctnews.com, Oct. 19, 2011; www.coneguys.com, viewed Nov. 5, 2011) On the savory side, the use of pretzel dust to make pretzel-crusted calamari has traveled from ABC Kitchen in New York to the Pump Room in Chicago. (timeoutchicago.com, Oct. 26, 2011) Further indication of the continued momentum of pretzels in all forms, ConAgra Foods Inc. purchased private label pretzel maker National Pretzel Company at the end of 2011 suggesting that consumers may well see more innovation in this snack category. ConAgra indicated that National Pretzel Co. had experienced 7% annual net sales growth over the last three years. (FoodBusinessNews.net, Nov. 11, 2011) ConAgra has the ability to combine existing strengths in gluten-free and whole grain flours, including Ultragrain, 100% whole wheat flour more similar to white flour, and the Healthy Choice brand.

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Waffles - Unwavering Nancy Kruse, Menu and Food Trends Expert and President of the Kruse Company called waffles “by far the ‘it’ product of 2011, and it has not peaked! The drivers behind pretzels and waffles are the same: Everyone likes them, they are very versatile, easy to execute in the back of the house [of restaurant chains] and the ingredients are highly affordable.” Waffles are appearing at every daypart with both sweet and savory executions, as carriers replacing bread, potatoes, shortcake and other carbohydrate staples.

Packaged Facts expects that

waffles will continue to feature prominently in 2012, including more folding and stacking involving fillings, as well as including some ingredient pieces in the batter. Particularly noticeable has been and will continue to be the increased use of waffles with savory ingredients and flavors. Adaptations of the classic chicken and waffles soul food are gaining in popularity. IHOP ran a limited time offer executed as chicken tenders with crispy Belgian waffles. (www.huffingtonpost.com, March 11, 2011) The Cravings Food Truck of Tallahassee, FL offers two jumbo chicken wings or tenders served with choice of waffle: buttermilk, red velvet, Nutella or the daily special. (cravingstruck.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011) Dunkin’ Donuts’ brought back its Waffle Breakfast Sandwich this past May in response to strong customer feedback. The new Blueberry Waffle Breakfast Sandwich consists of egg, maple sausage and American cheese served between “two toasty waffles with a sweet hint of blueberry.”

(news.dunkindonuts.com, May 3, 2011)

Gourmet waffle sandwich shop

Bruxie’s with two California locations claims to be “a new take on the authentic Belgium Waffle” with savory and sweet fillings that include buttermilk fried chicken and waffle, smoked salmon & dill cream, roasted mushroom & goat cheese, S’Mores, PB&J and seasonal crème brulee. (bruxie.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011) Hazel’s Northeast in Minneapolis, MN claims to serve “classically inspired, creatively prepared American comfort food,” including a Meat Waffle on their breakfast menu. (www.hazelsnortheast.com, viewed Dec. 3, 2011) Outback Steakhouse offered a limited time offer of a Strawberry Waffle Shortcake made with crisp, hot waffles, cool cream cheese filling, strawberries in syrup and toasted almonds. (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) Waffle-mania also includes the frozen aisle of the supermarket. Kashi announced the return of all-natural frozen waffles in Kashi 7-Grain and blueberry varieties. (PRNewswire, May 12, 2011) Tailored for those eating on-the-go, Smucker’s has introduced an innovative product, Snack’n Waffles, made with the syrup baked right in, so there is no mess. These whole grain waffles can be microwaved in 15 seconds, or thawed, and are available in four 62

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flavors: blueberry, cinnamon, maple and chocolate chip. (www.smuckers.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011) Luxurious Layering In 2012, look for more prepared foods and menu items presenting ingredients in a layered format across all categories and menu sections, in some cases, especially desserts, delivering what seem like they could be, or should be from the standpoint of avoiding excess, two choices in one dish. When it comes to entrees, expect to see some concepts already available in Europe, go on offer in the United States. One example is Findus Capitan Croccole Agli Spinaci Breaded Alaska Pollock Fillets with Spinach filling from Italy. The breaded fish includes a layer of spinach just under the breading. (Food Technology, Oct. 2011) Recipes such as one for sweet potato, pear and walnut gratin involve layering the key ingredients, slices of sweet potato, pear and Muenster cheese, before topping with a mixture of chopped walnuts and parmesan cheese. (Real Food, Volume 7, Number 3, fall 2011) Packaged Facts predicts that Lasagna-style preparation will gain in popularity, providing an opportunity to combine familiar ingredients in new combinations with more contemporary seasonings, often ethnically inspired, such as curry or specialty peppers . Trader Joe’s Buttered Squash and Creamed Spinach Gratin is described as lasagna-like in design with layers of thinly sliced butternut squash, creamed spinach and parmesan cheese. (Trader Joe’s Food Pilgrimager, Nov. 2011) In terms of layered desserts, The Ultimate Red Velvet Cake Cheesecake at The Cheesecake Factory consists of alternating layers of Red Velvet Cake and Original Cheesecake covered with cream cheese frosting. (www.thecheesecakefactory.com, viewed Nov. 11, 2011)

Combos and Value Meals in New Places Upon mention of value or combo meals, invariably thoughts of foodservice and quick serve restaurants (QSR) come to mind, but in-store prepared foods and frozen foods are looking to capture some of this opportunity. Packaged Facts anticipates that more meal combos and value meal options will be launched in the freezer aisle and fresh prepared section of the supermarket in 2012. In 2011, Nestle introduced frozen pizza sold with another meal item in the same package. Digiorno Pizza & Wyngz combo is available in three flavors: Pepperoni with Buffalo-style Wyngz; Supreme with Honey BBQ Wyngz and Three Meat with Honey BBQ Wyngz. Digiorno Pizza & Cookies is available in Pepperoni, Cheese and Supreme,

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each sold with chocolate chip cookie dough for baking while the pizza cooks. (www.digiorno.com, viewed Nov. 12, 2011) Several blogs readily discredit the Digiorno combos on nutritional grounds with accusations of irresponsibly promoting obesity, yet there is a realization that the combo approach is driven by the need to compete with pizza chains that have added desserts to their menus in recent years. (www.thatsnerdalicious.com, Jan. 24, 2011; consumerist.com, Jan. 26, 2011) Other newly launched combos likely to gain traction in 2012 include frozen entrees that are adding ingredients or components to drive value more from a health standpoint rather than simple belly-filling. Nestle’s leading frozen entrée brand Stouffer has added a half-cup side of veggies to some single serving entrees sold under the Stouffer’s Farmers’ Harvest line including Grilled Chicken Fettuccini Alfredo with a vegetable medley of buttery broccoli, carrots and grilled red peppers; Chicken and Parmesan Pasta Bake with a vegetable medley of broccoli, carrots and red peppers in butter sauce; Roasted Chicken and Bow Tie Pasta with a vegetable medley of carrots, green beans and grilled red peppers in a butter sauce and Whole Grain Spaghetti and Meatballs with a medley of asparagus, yellow carrots and grilled red peppers in a butter sauce. (www.nestleusa.com, Jan. 31, 2011)

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Chapter 5

Chapter 5: Making Healthy Easier

Making Healthy Easier

The year 2012 will be the first full year in which foodservice operators, packaged food manufacturers, retailers and consumers will have the chance to digest the long awaited Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010, published in early 2011. Packaged Facts expects that to the extent that prevailing interest and concern intersect with these recommendations, new programs, products and approaches to menu and foodservice operations will be implemented in the year ahead.

As in the past, there are numerous opportunities for

addressing the health and wellness concerns of consumers when it comes to food and beverage selection, both at home and away.

Plate2 vs. Pyramid The long awaited 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans were finalized in early 2011 with few surprises. Emphasis is on balancing food intake with physical activity, reducing sodium, saturated fats and cholesterol, calories from solid fats and added sugar, refined grains and alcohol, while increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, dietary fiber, calcium, vitamin D and use of mono and polyunsaturated fats. The Dietary Guidelines also discuss principles of healthy eating patterns that have been incorporated in the redesign of the educational communications program in the form of MyPlate, replacing MyPyramid in June 2011.

MyPlate, at www.ChooseMyPlate.gov, and

shown in Figure 5-1 is intended to remind Americans to eat healthfully and depicts the relative amounts of five food groups using a visual image of a place setting with sections of the plate representing the relative amounts of four food groups, fruits; vegetables, grains, and protein, with the fifth group, dairy, represented by a cup. By clicking on each section of the place setting at the website, key messages and recommendations are provided. Fruits and vegetables occupy half the plate, with grains taking up just over a quarter and protein the remainder. Key messages for the food groups include selecting a variety of vegetables, consuming half of the grains as whole grains, selecting lean protein sources and including calcium-rich dairy products.

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Figure 5-1 USDA Choose MyPlate Icon for Communicating 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans

Source: www.choosemyplate.gov, viewed Nov. 13, 2011

Areas where the selection and use of food ingredients and flavors are anticipated based on the release of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010 include: •

Continued emphasis on increased fruit and vegetable consumption, with variety being important. Sub-groups highlighted in the recommendations included dark-green and red and orange vegetables, beans, and peas.

•

Use of more oils and fewer solid fats, including olive oil, other vegetable oils, and more nut oils, including less common or more exotic ones. This recommendation helps explain why specialty oils are gaining in popularity.

•

Expanded use of whole grains including whole wheat, brown rice, quinoa, bulgur, corn, buckwheat, whole oats, spelt, wild rice and amaranth in a myriad of products and product categories

•

Consumption of more calcium-rich, low fat or fat free dairy foods, including milks, yogurt and cheese

•

Selection of lower fat protein ingredients that include lean meat, based on breeding and cuts; poultry, seafood and increased legume and soy consumption

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In September 2011, retailer ALDI launched a consumer program aligned with the messages in the Dietary Guidelines and the MyPlate icon in relation to filling half of the plate with fruits and vegetables. The campaign consisted of flyers and in-store signage with freshproduce “Picks of the Week” featuring substantial price reductions, online recipes and nutrition tips and incorporating the retailer’s store-brand fresh, frozen and canned fruits and vegetables. (Progressive Grocer Store Brands, Oct. 2011) Kathy Means, Vice President of government relations for the Produce Marketing Association (PMA) speaking about the new Dietary Guidelines and MyPlate icon commented, “When you increase produce use, you decrease your plate cost. Simply looking at it from a business perspective, increasing produce on the plate is a good move.” Tim York, President of Salinas, CA Markon Cooperative commented, “Imagine how powerful MyPlate imagery on a menu could be.” (www.flavor-online.com, 2011 volume 12, issue 4) Harvard: Healthy Eating Plate Just months after the new Dietary Guidelines and MyPlate communications program were released, Harvard School of Public Health experts Dr. Walter Willett and Dr. David Ludwig levied criticism and recommended improvements to MyPlate in an editorial that appeared in The New England Journal of Medicine. Among the weaknesses they found with the USDA recommendations were: •

Failure to indicate that whole grains are better for health than refined grains

•

Failure to mention that certain high protein foods, such as fish, poultry, beans and nuts are healthier than red meats and processed meats

•

Overlooking healthy fats altogether

•

Making no distinction between potatoes and other vegetables

•

Recommending dairy consumption at every meal while there is little evidence that high dairy intake protects against osteoporosis, while consuming large quantities can be harmful

•

Failure to address sugary beverages

•

Not mentioning the importance of physical activity

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They included in their writing, “A clearer message would have been that Americans must reduce consumption of red meat, cheese, butter, and sugar, but that message would have offended powerful industries.

Deep in the guidelines, diligent readers can find a

recommendation to limit sugar-sweetened beverages, but these products deserve front page attention as the single greatest source of calories in the United States diet and an important contributor

to

obesity,

diabetes,

heart

disease,

gout

and

dental

caries.”

(www.foodnavigator.com, Nov. 4, 2011) In addition, they commented that, “Unfortunately, like earlier USDA Pyramids, MyPlate mixes science with the influence of powerful agricultural interests, which is not the recipe for healthy eating.” (www.foodprocessing.com, Oct. 18, 2011) These experts are in favor of recommendations that are based on foods rather than nutrients. To address some of the shortcomings they perceived in the government’s MyPlate, they introduced their own version, the Healthy Eating Plate, shown in Figure 5-2. (www.thenutritionsource.org) Figure 5-2 Harvard School of Public Health Proposed Healthy Eating Plate Icon

Source: www.hsph.harvard.edu, Sep. 14, 2011.

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Specific recommendations accompanying the Healthy Eating Plate include: •

Eat a large variety of vegetables, but limit consumption of potatoes

•

“Choose a rainbow of fruits every day.”

•

Select whole grains including oatmeal, whole wheat bread and brown rice

•

Limit red meat and avoid processed meats

•

For cooking, use olive oil, canola and other plant oils. Limit butter and avoid trans fat

•

Limit milk and dairy to 1 – 2 servings per day and limit juice to one small glass per day, and avoid sugary drinks

Managing Weight – Still a Hefty Task Underlying many of the recommendations in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010 is the goal of reducing childhood and adult obesity levels. According to the IFIC 2011 Food & Health Survey, 74% of Americans are attempting to do something with their weight with 47% trying to lose it and 26% attempting to maintain it. Participants indicated that the top contributor to successful weight management is changing the types and amounts of food eaten (41%), more so than changing how often they eat (27%), keeping track of calories (19%) or managing higher calorie food and beverages (15%). Related to this, 39% of survey participants believed that protein can help people feel full, while just over one third (34%) reported that high-protein diets can help with weight loss. (2011 Food & Health Survey: Consumer Attitudes Toward Food Safety, Nutrition and Health, Sept. 1, 2011) In opposition to the nearly three-quarters of Americans who are attempting to control or lose weight are gargantuan menu offerings available at various chain restaurants. The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) released its annual Xtreme Eating Awards in July 2011, highlighting eight of the worst restaurant items in relation to weight management and general healthfulness.

On the list was the IHOP Monster Bacon ‘N Beef Cheeseburger at 1,250

calories, consisting of two beef patties made with bacon ground right into them and served with American and Provolone cheese on a Romano-Parmesan bun. Another offending burger was the Farmhouse Cheeseburger at 1,530 calories from The Cheesecake Factory. It’s topped

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with grilled smoked pork belly, cheddar cheese, onions, lettuce, tomato, mayonnaise and a fried egg. Also mentioned from The Cheesecake Factory was the Ultimate Red Velvet Cake Cheesecake. This dessert, weighing almost three-quarters of a pound and containing approximately 1,540 calories, is actually a layer cake of alternating red velvet cake and cheesecake with cream cheese frosting and white chocolate shavings served with whipped cream. Denny’s Fried Cheese Melt made the list for its Grilled American Cheese Sandwich to which four fried mozzarella sticks are placed between the bread. With fries and a side of marinara sauce, it contained 1,260 calories. The list also included Provolone Stuffed Meatballs with Fettuccine (1,520 calories) at Applebees, an extra large order of King Fries at Great Steak (930 calories), Morton’s Porterhouse Steak with mashed potatoes and creamed spinach (2,570 calories) and Coldstone Creamery’s 2,010 calorie, 24 ounce PB&C Shake (Peanut butter, chocolate and milk). In addition to providing an excess number of calories, these items also contained 2 – 3 days worth of saturated fat and sodium intake. (Nutrition Action Healthletter, July/Aug. 2011) In an attempt to offer pragmatic advice to help maintain weight when eating out, TOPS, the nonprofit weight loss support organization, offered up the following list of tips in relation to 10 popular menu items in order to avoid hidden and excess calories. (www.cbs19.tv, April 7, 2011) •

Salad – Stick with nutritious dark leafy greens, vegetables and fruit while avoiding heavy dressings and cheese

•

Fish – Order baked or grilled with lemon, not fried, avoiding butter and cream sauces

•

Smoothies – Be wary of food court versions that typically contain added sugar, whole milk and come in super large sizes

•

Wraps – Select ones made with lean meats, lots of veggies, small amounts of cheese and no mayo or creamy sauces

•

Coffee drinks – Have regular coffee with no “add-ins”, skipping cream and flavored syrups containing lots of sugar

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Avoid high fat and calorie foods such as muffins and fried veggies, including sweet potato fries

•

Beware of multi-grain breads masquerading as more nutritious whole-grain options

•

Chicken – Grilled chicken breast is a good choice when accompanied or topped by low calorie items such as lettuce, onion, tomato and other veggies, instead of cheese, mayo and bacon

•

Salad bar – Avoid creamy, macaroni-and-pea-type salads and go easy on the cheese, instead choosing veggies, lean protein, including hard boiled eggs, eaten with light dressing or oil and vinegar

Making Dining Out More Nutritious When pressured, McDonald’s took the high ground and agreed to offer more nutritious Happy Meals to kids last summer, although the chain declined to join 19 other restaurants in the National Restaurant Association’s Kids LiveWell program. Packaged Facts expects 2012 will see more healthy meal options added to chain restaurant menus, particularly for children. Ronald’s Reckoning: Reinvention Triumphs Over Retirement McDonald’s committed to providing apple slices in every Happy Meal by the end of Q1 2012, along with promoting options that meet the nutrition standards of the Council of Better Business Bureaus Food Pledge. The automatic addition of apple slices to Happy Meals is estimated to result in caloric reduction of approximately 20%, along with decreasing saturated fat 20% and sodium 15%. (abcnews.g.com, July 26, 2011) The rollout of the new Happy Meals, which began in September 2011, means that customers will receive a bag of apple slices in addition to a smaller, 1.1 ounce, serving of French fries. Customers may request additional apple slices in lieu of the fries. While apple slices have been available as an option in Happy Meals since 2004, they were only requested 11% of the time, despite an 88% awareness level of this option. In addition to apple slices, McDonald’s may also offer carrots, raisins, pineapple slices or mandarin oranges depending on region and time of year. For the new Happy Meals, a non-fat chocolate milk has been added to the beverage choices of apple juice or 1% low-fat white milk. (www.aboutmcdonalds.com, July 26, 2011) McDonald’s also announced other nutrition goals, including reductions in added sugars, saturated fats and calories to other menu items by 2020 that it plans to accomplish through January 2012

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portion size changes, reformulation and other innovations. By 2015, sodium will be reduced an average of 15% across the U.S. food portfolio. Accessing nutrition information is getting easier at McDonald’s both in the restaurant and via mobile application on the iPhone, iPad, Blackberry and Android. (www.aboutmcdonalds.com, July 26, 2011) The Power of Peer Pressure: Kids LiveWell Program To address the nutritional needs of children, the National Restaurant Association (NRA) launched a voluntary program in conjunction with Healthy Dining to help parents and kids select healthy options when dining out. The 19 inaugural restaurant chains encompassing 15,000 locations participating in the program are shown in Appendix I, and include Burger King, a key competitor of McDonald’s. They commit to offering healthful meal items for children with particular focus on increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, lean protein, whole grains, and low-fat dairy products while limiting unhealthy fats, sugar and sodium. (www.restaurant.org, July 13, 2011) Qualifying criteria for the Kids LiveWell menu offerings include, among other things, meeting the recommendations of the 2010 USDA Dietary Guidelines and have the following components: •

Participating restaurants must offer a children’s meal (entrée, side and beverage) of 600 calories or less and include two servings of fruit, vegetable, whole grain, lean protein or low-fat dairy, with limits on sodium, fats and sugar.

•

Participating restaurants must offer at least one side dish having 200 calories or less with limits on fats, sugar and sodium plus contain a serving of fruit, vegetable, whole grains, lean protein or low-fat dairy.

•

Participating restaurants must display or make available upon request the nutrition profile of the healthful menu options and

•

Participating restaurants must promote or identify the healthful menu options.

The menu items complying with the Kids LiveWell criteria can be found by visiting the HealthyDiningfinder website, entering the relevant zip code or city, clicking on the Kids LiveWell section and then on the restaurants of interest. (www.healthydiningfinder.com, viewed Nov. 12, 2011)

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Coincident with the launch of the Kids LiveWell program last July, Burger King announced that effective that same month they would stop automatically including French fries and soda in kids’ meals. Instead, employees are trained to ask customers if milk or apple slices are preferred, eliminating the default offering of fries and a soft drink. At the time of the program announcement, three meals at Burger King met the criteria and were featured on posters through the company’s stores and in advertisements, including a breakfast sandwich, a burger and chicken tenders with reduced sodium. All three were served with apple slices and juice or milk. (LA Times, July 13, 2011) The extent to which participating restaurant chains have had to modify children’s meals to comply with the program requirements has varied, and a glance at some of the compliant offerings suggests that to maximize kid appeal, some may need reworking over time. Denny’s, for example, has had to reformulate a pasta dinner to contain a vegetable side dish whereas IHOP is counting on parents to order the right combination of individual items to meet the program’s nutritional requirements: The only meal that complies is tilapia with broccoli, perhaps not the most appealing to many kids. Margo Wootan, a nutritionist with the Center for Science in the Public Interest commented that the standards for the program appear to be reasonable but, “The problem is they should be applying those standards to all their children’s meals. Not just one.” (LA Times, July 13, 2011) Dietitians – The New Menu Celebrities? While it is unlikely that dietitians will gain the status of celebrity chefs anytime soon, increasingly they are working behind the scenes to creatively interpret and implement the new national menu laws having been hired by many restaurant chains for this purpose. In 2012, ingenuity in the kitchen will require both talented chefs and dietitians. Red Brick Pizza, Noodles and Company, Freshii and Tropical Smoothie Café have announced that they are working with registered dietitians to help with menu development, food research and providing nutrition information for customers. Coming to grips with obesity is the main motivator, particularly in relation to children, with menu focus centering on controlling calories and reducing salt, sugar and solid fats while increasing whole grains, seafood and fruits and vegetables. Clearly, dietitians will also be an asset in advancing other nutritionrelated menu trends such as portion rightsizing and developing gluten-free offerings and identifying, potentially eliminating, and communicating with consumers about other potential allergens. (www.fastcasual.com, Feb. 4, 2011)

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Consumers’ Nutrition Concerns According to the 2011 Food & Health Survey: Consumer Attitudes Toward Food Safety, Nutrition and Health, commissioned by the International Food Information Council Foundation, consumers are reading Nutrition Facts Panels, with 65% looking for sodium or salt, 64% reading information about fat or oil, 60% paying attention to sugar content and 48% looking for information about vitamin and mineral content. Perhaps most alarming of the study’s findings was that despite huge amounts of media and food industry attention to reduce sodium in foods, consumer concern about sodium in the diet has not changed in the past year, with just 53% of consumers indicating that they are very or somewhat concerned about it, and 60% claiming to regularly purchase reduced sodium foods. (www.foodinsight.org, Sept. 1, 2011) Not long after this study was published, the FDA and USDA’s FSIS opened a docket soliciting comments, data and evidence related to approaches for decreasing sodium consumption, with comments due back at the end of November 2011. Topics where input was requested included food industry practices for reducing sodium, consumer understanding of the role of sodium in hypertension and other chronic diseases, consumer motivators and barriers in relation to sodium intake and issues associated with the development of sodium reduction targets for foods. As a result, 2012 should see a flurry of news and activity associated with sodium in the diet with potential implications for packaged foods and foodservice. (www.heart.org, Oct. 21, 2011) Based on data from Product Launch Analytics, a Datamonitor service, reports of product launches with reduced or low sodium content flagged in the year ending September 30, 2011 were most numerous for potato chips and other savory snacks, breakfast cereals and cereal bars. This represented more chips and snacks than in the comparable period in 2010, when wet cooking sauces headed the list.

Gluten-Free Going Gangbusters Consumers choosing to avoid gluten will have more options at restaurants and in the supermarket in 2012, as its mainstream penetration increases. The number of reports of gluten-free product introductions in the 12 months ending September 30, 2011 was on par with that of the prior year, resulting in an annual growth rate in introductions of just over 1%. (Product Launch Analytics) This suggests that while gluten-free will remain an important force when it comes to health and wellness driving food choices in 2012, it will likely be on

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its way to becoming just a line extension or flavor variant of packaged foods by the major manufacturers. Packaged Facts estimates that U.S. sales of gluten-free products, which increased from $935 million in 2006 to approximately $2.6 billion in 2010, will top $5 billion by 2015. As discussed in Gluten-Free Foods and Beverages in the United States, 3rd Edition, published by Packaged Facts, the market for gluten-free foods and beverages has been bolstered by consumers opting for gluten-free in relation to its healthy aura rather than driven out of necessity to address celiac disease or gluten sensitivity or allergy. This choice is sometimes motivated by reports that gluten-free diets may help a range of diseases, including autism and rheumatoid arthritis. (Gluten-Free Foods and Beverages in the United States, Feb. 1, 2011). Continued interest in gluten-free foods prompted General Mills to conduct its first Betty Crocker Baker’s Challenge Gluten Free Recipe Contest in 2011, encouraging entrants to use any Betty Crocker Gluten-Free dessert mix (yellow and devil’s food cake mixes, chocolate cookie and brownie mixes) or Bisquick Gluten-Free baking mix. General Mills has also partnered with the University of Chicago’s Celiac Disease Center and the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine Center for Celiac Research in creating a website dedicated to gluten free, Gluten Freely, at www.glutenfreely.com. The grand prize winner, finalists and their recipes are featured on the website. The grand prize winning recipe was for Apple Spice Cupcakes with Maple Cream Cheese Frosting and Candied Walnuts that was made with Betty Crocker gluten-free yellow cake mix. (http://www.glutenfreely.com/bakerschallenge, viewed Nov. 6, 2011) In Los Angeles, Fonuts, a bakery selling faux donuts because they are baked, not fried, opened in August 2011 including in the product lineup what they described as wheat or gluten free varieties in banana chocolate, chocolate hazelnut, peach and lemon varieties. (www.huffingtonpost.com, Aug. 23, 2011; www.fonuts.com, viewed Nov. 13, 2011)

Vexing Vitamins Research findings released in late 2011 suggested that taking vitamin supplements daily, including multivitamins, may put older women at increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer. A study published in the Archives of Internal Medicine concluded that the use of multivitamins and supplements including folic acid, iron, magnesium and copper were associated with higher death rates among older women, with iron posing the highest risk. Similarly, intake of vitamin E supplements by healthy men was found to significantly January 2012

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increase the risk of prostate cancer in healthy men.

This unsettling news is likely to have

many supplement takers rethinking their nutritional strategy. Proponents of whole foods as the best approach to achieving adequate nutrient intake, could well see many converts in 2012, particularly if marketing campaigns play up the inherent nutrient content of foods, especially currently popular varieties of vegetables and fruit. For example, wheat germ oil, sunflower seeds, spinach and broccoli could be promoted more heavily for their inherent vitamin E content. (www.Bloomberg.com, Oct. 11, 2011; www.cbsnews.com, Oct. 11)

Defining Beauty Several major food companies including Nestle, PepsiCo and Coca Cola were represented at the second annual Beauty From Within conference held in October 2011. The program was organized to address opportunities, trends and challenges in Nutricosmetics. It included discussion of comparisons of the thriving markets in Japan and China relative to Europe and the United States, where establishment is much slower, in large part due to more challenging regulatory environments. Specific conference topics included consumer messaging, the role of social media, an in-depth discussion of the nutricosmetic market in the United States and how to create a connection between nutrition and beauty, beauty ingredients themselves – what’s new, what’s next and what works, and a discussion of beauty claims versus health claims. (www.cd-beautyfromwithin.com, viewed Nov. 13, 2011) Since the emergence of nutricosmetics, there have been some food and beverage product successes addressing beauty from within, including flavored waters, juices and yogurts, but there have also been some product withdrawals of big name brands: Mars Dove Vitalize and Dove Beautiful chocolates, Danone’s Essensis yogurts and Nestle’s Glowelle beverages. (Nutraingredients-usa.com, Sept. 13, 2011) Packaged Facts anticipates that this area of emerging market opportunity will undergo several iterations and transformations as consumer understanding and experience evolves along with the regulatory climate. An indication that consumer product companies remain interested in the area of beauty-from-within is the recent introduction of Nimble from Balance Bar in the fall of 2011. The company describes Nimble as “the first bar that conveniently combines beauty and nutrition in a delicious, indulgent bar.” The bar is formulated with antioxidants beta-carotene, to protect against UV damage, and lutein, believed to increase skin hydration and improve its elasticity. Nimble also contains other ingredients specifically selected to promote women’s health including whey protein for lasting energy, fiber for digestive health

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and satiety, calcium for bone health, muscle and nerve function, iron for “resisting fatigue and poor concentration, folate for reproductive health, vitamin D to aid calcium absorption, vitamin B6 to help stabilize blood sugar and boost the immune system. (Food Processing, Oct. 17, 2011)

Explosive Energy Despite recent attempts to blame energy beverages for murders and childhood bullying, they look likely to remain a bright spot in the mostly shrinking U.S. beverage market in the year ahead. According to Beverage Digest, energy drink consumption increased 13% in 2010, and demand remains high, particularly among millennial males. (www.details.com, Sept. 7, 2011) The market research report, Functional and Natural Ready-to-Drink Beverages in the U.S., published by Packaged Facts in May 2011, points out that energy drinks, along with Ready-to-Drink teas and sports drinks, have helped grow the functional and natural Ready-toDrink beverage market to over $23 billion. For the 52 weeks ended August 7, 2011, U.S. retail sales of non-aseptic energy drinks increased 11% to over one billion dollars according to SymphonyIRI (Sosland Publishing Company:

Corporate Profiles, Oct. 2011) These

beverages continue to deliver sales growth and, despite the contention that their success is attributable to counterculture marketing, it is actually because they are delivering the stated and distinctive benefit of providing energy that consumers want and need.

Caffeine and

sugar are most often used to deliver the energy in these products, but other ingredients can also function as stimulants, boosting the caffeine, including taurine, cocoa, guarana, and ginseng. (www.details.com, Sept. 7, 2011) Strong category growth helps explain why Red Bull, Monster and Full Throttle are being joined by more recent energy beverage introductions, including Kraft Foods MiO flavored water with caffeine. Each serving contains an amount equivalent to the caffeine found in 18 cups of coffee. (Food Business News, Nov. 8, 2011) The Campbell Soup Co. introduced V8 V-Fusion + Energy drinks in Pomegranate Blueberry and Peach Mango flavors. The website states “Get the boost you need to get through your busy day with a refreshing energy drink that is powered by natural green tea – so you can feel good about it, too!” Each can provides a combined serving of vegetable and fruit “with the delicious taste of fruit” along with 50 calories, B vitamins, no artificial colors, flavors or preservatives and no added sugar. Each serving

contains

added

caffeine

comparable

to

a

cup

of

coffee.

(http://vfusionplusenergy.com, viewed Nov. 21, 2011)

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Whereas energy beverages appeal primarily to young males aged 18 – 34 as a social phenomenon, energy shots attract a wider audience, including older people, women, professionals and office workers – people who need to stay alert, and who consume energy shots privately, not unlike taking vitamins. As the 5-hour Energy website states, “It’s quick, simple, and made to help hard working people. The key ingredients in 5-hour ENERY are also available in every day foods – like broccoli, avocados, bananas and apples.” (www.5hourenergy.com) For the 52 weeks ending August 7, 2011, SymphonyIRI data for supermarkets, drugstores, gas and convenience stores and mass market retailers excluding Wal-Mart, shows that 5-hour Energy brand commanded 88% of the energy shots market, with 5-hour Energy Extra Strength rising over 91%. Of the top competitors, only private label products showed strong gain, increasing 93%, suggesting there is an opportunity for own label brands to get a substantially stronger foothold in this market in the coming year, as well as for strong and nimble new branded entrants to leapfrog over existing products.

(www.foodnavigator-

usa.com, Aug. 23, 2011) One of the new branded competitors is V8 Energy Shots in Berry Blast flavor from the Campbell Soup Co, available only in Colorado, Florida and Minnesota through Wal-Mart at the time this report was written. The website states “Powered Naturally. Ingredients You Know!” V8 Energy shots are 100% juice and contain green tea extract for natural energy, B vitamins Thiamine, Riboflavin, and Niacin, antioxidant vitamins A, C, and E and a “unique blend of nine vegetable and fruit juices”: Tomatoes, purple carrots, sweet potatoes, carrots, apples, cherries, strawberries, red raspberries and blackberries.

Each 2.5 ounce bottle

provides one combined serving of fruit and vegetables and caffeine comparable to an eight ounce cup of leading premium coffee. (http://v8energyshots.com, viewed Nov. 21, 2011) Also having recently joined the fray is Celestial Seasonings brand Kombucha Energy Shots, initially distributed at Whole Foods starting in November 2011.

The press release for

Kombucha Energy Shots indicates the product is “a great tasting, all natural shot that fills a void within the energy shot and beverage categories by combining B vitamins and energizing botanicals, like ginseng and caffeine from guarana, with the revitalizing effects of kombucha, a fermented black tea.” The company believes their product addresses a need for an allnatural and healthful option in the energy shot category. Consumers have told them that the primary reason they enjoy kombucha is for the energy boost it provides. In addition to energy, this fermented black tea is also claimed to contain naturally occurring enzymes, probiotic cultures and beneficial acids. The energy shots are made from the authentic, live, 78

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raw kombucha with the addition of the proprietary blend of energizing ingredients. Kombucha Energy Shots are available in Citrus, Berry and Pomegranate Extreme, which contains extra caffeine from guarana and B vitamins. (PR Newswire, Nov. 14, 2011) The original 5-hour Energy shot product contains the same amount of caffeine as a cup of leading premium coffee whereas extra strength contains the same amount of caffeine as 12 ounces of premium, leading coffee, much less caffeine than many energy beverages. Both original and extra strength products also contain taurine, choline, glucaronic acid, N-acetyl Ltyrosine, l-phenylalanine and malic acid. A decaf version claims to contain only as much caffeine as half a cup of decaffeinated coffee (6 mg). All three products contain vitamin B6, folic acid and vitamin B2; the original and extra strength also contain niacin. (www.5hourenergy.com) While both energy beverages and energy shots both have their following in the mainstream market to provide consumers with energy to get through their day, there remains an opportunity to develop comparably targeted energy foods for the same, non-athletic performance market.

One leading edge product of this sort in the marketplace is Wired

Waffles, in regional distribution in the state of Washington. The website state, “Born out of a love for waffles and a life of coffee, Wired Waffles are NOT your kids toaster waffles…..This tasty little energy snack packs a punch of 200 milligrams of caffeine.” (wiredwaffles.com, viewed Dec. 2, 2011)

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Chapter 6

Chapter 6: Mostly, Friendlier Fats

Mostly, Friendlier Fats

At various times over the last few decades, scientists and policymakers have warned consumers to avoid fats of various types including beef tallow used for deep fat frying (French fries), butter and, most recently, margarines and other hydrogenated oils containing trans fats.

The year 2012 could represent the turning point from negative to positive

messages about fats, with much more encouragement for consumers to eat more of those associated with health benefits. As discussed in the Fats and Oils: Culinary Trend Mapping Report published jointly by the Center for Culinary Development and Packaged Facts (Oct. 20, 2011), renewed interest in the benefits of fats and oils stems from three converging trends: Health and wellness, flavor boosting and authenticity. It is anticipated that there will be more chefs and food enthusiasts turning to the fats used in preindustrial times, such as lard and chicken fat, to rediscover their almost forgotten taste qualities. For many there will be a connection between the nose-to-tail and farm-to-table movements inasmuch as locally raised fowl and animals are fully utilized not only for protein, but also for high quality fat. Also important are culturally specific fats; for example, ghee, a type of clarified butter, used in Indian cooking and authentic lard in Mexican cuisine.

Preindustrial Fats – Pure Pleasure Fats that go a long way to impart delectable flavor include lard, chicken fat, duck fat and butter.

Discussed in Chapter 4 under Crossovers: Ingredients in Unexpected Places;

Packaged Facts anticipates that duck fat will increasingly be used across all menu categories, including desserts. In keeping with classic functionality, lard will return for making flaky pie crusts and Southern food, in particular that rendered from locally raised, heritage pig varieties. Chicken fat will be found in traditional recipes for the likes of matzo balls and matzo ball soup, as well as roasted potatoes. Artisanal Butter Packaged Facts expects artisanal butters, already popular at high end and natural food retailers, to gain momentum in 2012. The butter section of the dairy case is likely to expand January 2012

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from just the local dairy, the store brand and the big brand, if it hasn’t happened already. At some high end retailers, it is not uncommon to find seven or eight butters to choose from. Imported European butters, locally produced butters from small dairies, and everything in between are likely to get more attention in 2012. According to Kara Nielsen, Trendologist with the Center for Culinary Development in San Francisco, CA, “There is renewed interest in European butter as the go-to baking butter for pastry because of its lower water content.” Vermont Butter & Cheese Creamery cultures fresh Vermont cream and churns it to a European-style cultured butter that contains more butterfat (86%) and less salt than standard U.S. butter. The higher butterfat content gives it greater plasticity and means it does not burn as quickly. The culturing process involves pasteurizing raw cream and adding selected bacterial strains to create the target flavor profile. By contrast, routine supermarket butter is known as sweet cream butter. One of the most popular butters on offer to chefs and at retail is the company’s cultured butter with sea salt crystals. (www.vermontcreamery.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011) The Straus Family Creamery in California makes Organic European-style lightly salted and sweet butters containing 85% butterfat with similar characteristics for distribution in the West. The website states, “All of our organic butters are made in our 1950’s butter churn with just sweet cream. No coloring or additives are used. This old-fashioned style of making butter takes us a lot longer, but the butter comes out with a high butterfat content and very low moisture.” (www.strausfamilycreamery.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011) Cooperative Organic Valley also sells a European-style cultured butter with 84% butterfat, having taken first place at the 2009 American Cheese Society Awards. They also sell a Pasture Butter, a salted cultured butter with a higher fat content but without antibiotics, synthetic hormones and pesticides. It is produced in small batches at the height of pasture season, thus providing higher levels of antioxidants, CLA (conjugated linoleic acid) and omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids. (www.organicvalley.coop, Nov. 22, 2011) Small dairies are developing cult-like followings, such as Animal Farm of Orwell, VT. (Associated Press, Sept. 20, 2011) This small dairy has been hand-making butter from grassfed Jersey cows for 10 years, with the majority of it going to Thomas Keller’s The French Laundry and Per Se restaurants. Owing to the grass feeding and small scale production techniques, the butter changes with the seasons. (www.animalfarm.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011)

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Also expect to see an increase in popularity is compound butters; butters with other ingredients added. These butters become instant sauces when added to other foods. Several recipes have recently appeared for compound butters, including herb-lemon zest butter, anchovy butter recommended for spooning over “your favorite steak as it rests”, chipotlelime butter and turmeric-mustard seed butter. (Bon Appetit, July and Oct. 2011) Even Land O’Lakes launched a Cinnamon Sugar Butter Spread last year, made with cream, sugar, 19% canola oil, water, cinnamon, salt and citric acid. The website promotes “Spreading, Cooking, Baking and Making Snacks Amazing.” A recipe booklet, downloadable for easy printing, includes recipes for cinnamon-glazed carrots, Moroccan chicken, mini cinnamon cupcakes and Snickerdoodle sandwich cookies. (www.landolakes.com, viewed Nov. 20, 2011)

Healthier and Heavenly From a health standpoint, other fats expected to be utilized more frequently in 2012 include rice bran oil, coconut oil, specialty vegetable, nut, and seed oils and the new era of margarines and vegetable spreads. Rice bran oil’s appeal includes its monounsaturated fatty acids and specifically its high lauric acid content, associated with increasing high density lipoproteins (HDLs), the “good cholesterol”, antioxidants and also vitamin E. It is extracted from the germ and inner husk of rice and, perhaps not surprisingly, is popular in Asian countries. Its high smoke point makes it a good choice for sautéing and stir frying. (Chicago Tribune, Dec. 22, 2010)

Data from Product Launch Analytics, a Datamonitor service,

suggest that its use in retail products is increasing as a result of introductions of Asian flavored noodles, bottled oil for food preparation and cereals and snacks by U.S. manufacturers including General Mills. Whereas there were eight reports of rice bran oil being used as a food ingredient in the United States in the twelve month period ending September 30, 2007, there were 21 in the comparable period ending in 2011. (Product Launch Analytics) Coconut oil is also getting attention due to its positive association with coconut milk and coconut water, finally rehabilitating the image of this fat after suffering in the 1990s as a result of much less healthy and prevalent hydrogenated forms. Sunbelt Banana Harvest and Blueberry Harvest Chewy Granola bars, positioned as better-for-you and promoted as high in antioxidant vitamin E with no high fructose corn syrup, no preservatives and no trans-fats are formulated with coconut oil. (www.sunbeltsnacks.com, viewed Nov. 20, 2011) Olivio, maker of innovative spreadable products, recently launched Coconut Spread. The website describes the product as milder and richer than butter with less saturated fat. Other benefits January 2012

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include that this spread is organic, dairy-free, gluten-free non-GMO and vegan.

The

ingredient line includes organic tropical oil blend (coconut oil, extra virgin coconut oil, sustainable palm oil). (www.olivioproducts.com, viewed Nov. 20, 2011). Another recent launch of a healthier spread is Eden Eatin’ Healthy Parve Buttery Spread made with flax oil. It is also cholesterol free, vegan and contains no trans fat.

Specialty Seed, Nut and Vegetable Oils Perhaps some of the most fun and nutritionally friendly oils starting to appear on the market are nut and seed oils promoted for use as finishing agents. The Fats and Oils: Culinary Trend Mapping Report refers to them as affordable indulgences, adding bursts of interesting flavors to salads when used in dressings, for dipping bread and as garnishes for soups and other dishes. Generally speaking, nut and seed oils are considered good sources of omega-3 fatty acids, associated with heart health and other potential health benefits. It is reported that sales of specialty oils at Whole Foods have been increasing faster than overall store sales. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011) Pumpkin Seed Oil Of the growing list of specialty oils, one expected to be especially hot in 2012 is pumpkin seed oil, perhaps attributable in part to the increased interest in pumpkin-containing and flavored food and beverages of all types.

It is reddish-green in color and has a nutty flavor,

making it appropriate with both savory and sweet dishes. California gourmet oil company La Tourangelle sells toasted pumpkin seed oil from the Styrian region of Austria, believed to be home to the world’s best pumpkin seed. In that part of the world, pumpkin seed oil can be found on menus, including at Steirereck in Vienna. Heinz Reitbauer, the restaurant’s head chef, uses it on potato salad and adds it to meat stock for making sauces, although other chefs do not recommend heating it. Austrian-born and New York resident chef Kurt Gutenbrunner is owner of four Austrian restaurants including New York’s Café Sabarsky where he serves pumpkin seed oil in salads, squash soups and, more recently, in a cauliflower dish. So far, there are not many producers of organic pumpkin seed in the United States. Hay River Foods in northwestern Wisconsin grows Styrian hull-less pumpkins, a type cultivated for their seeds and not their flesh. Company partners Jay Gilbertson and Ken Seguine started bottling pumpkin seed oil in 2006 and have sold out every season since. Early in 2011 Whole 84

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Foods began distributing the oil in the upper Midwest. The partners drizzle it on baked goods, such as apple-cranberry crisp. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011) The La Tourangelle website suggests using it in salad dressings, soup, marinades, as pasta dips, in pastries, as well as simply drizzle it over vanilla ice cream and serving with pumpkin seeds. (www.latourangelle.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011) The menu for the Classic Italian Pizza restaurant in Tempe, AZ includes a starter of Aglio Olio (garlic dip) containing freshly chopped garlic and jalapenos in pumpkin seed oil served with house-made bread. (www.classicitalianpizza.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011) Avocado Oil If pumpkin seed oil is the up and coming nut seed oil, highly monounsaturated avocado oil could well be right behind it. Used with olive oil, it won’t overpower the natural flavor of foods, goes well with chicken, French and Asian cuisine and is suitable for stir-frying, searing and dipping. (Chicago Tribune, Dec. 22, 2010) Chef Brad Farmerie uses avocado oil at Public, a Michelin star rated New York City restaurant in Little Italy, in a pomegranatemolasses salad dressing and also a slowly cooked tomato confit. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011) Nut Oils Most exotic of the nut oils is argan, obtained from the kernels of the argan tree, native to Morocco.

It is amber-red in color and has a stronger, almost meat-like in character,

appropriate for heartier dishes. It gives a distinctive nutty flavor to foods and is typically used to season salads, vegetables, bread, couscous, lentils, cooked seafood and egg dishes. (Chicago Tribune, Dec. 22, 2010) At Public, Chef Farmerie drizzles argan oil on grilled or steamed fish, tosses it through a grain salad with preserved lemon and in an argan-anchovy mayonnaise for roast lamb. Due to the specific and small growing region of the argan tree, its oil is both rare and expensive. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011) More readily available nut oils include hazelnut, pistachio, walnut and macadamia. Williams-Sonoma sells various types of La Tourangelle nut oils, also available directly from the company (www.latourangelle.com). These oils are made with locally harvested nuts that are sundried, crushed and roasted in cast-iron kettles prior to pressing and filtering. The Williams-Sonoma website describes hazelnut oil as smooth and deep green in color, recommended for drizzling over salad greens, grilled fish and vegetables. It recommends

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using it instead of butter with potatoes and pasta. Pistachio oil is recommended for drizzling on fresh goat cheese or blend with medium body vinegars, such as tarragon or white wine in salad dressings.

Walnut oil offers buttery richness to balance with stronger vinegars,

including red wine and balsamic, in salad dressings and for dipping with bread or hard, aged cheeses such as Parmigiano Reggiano.

Its low smoke point indicates it is best used

uncooked. (www.Williams-Sonoma.com, viewed Nov. 19, 2011) Macadamia nut oil is considered good on salads and in baking. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 17, 2011).

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Beverages Breaking Through

Packaged Facts expects recent category and segment blurring to continue in 2012 with flavor blends being more prevalent and popular than ever, and natural remaining a key selling point. With the blurring comes an opportunity to create innovative flavor, taste and ingredient combinations. At retail, overlap can be anticipated for smoothies, some found in the juice aisle, some in the frozen fruit section and others with ice cream and frozen desserts.

Smoothies: More Shaking & Stirring According to the Campbell Soup Company, 5.5 million more people drank smoothies in 2010 than in 2009. (www.businesswire.com, Oct. 6, 2011) Already mainstream in foodservice, smoothies will be more commonplace at home in 2012 thanks to retail product introductions offering increased convenience, with several skipping the muss and fuss of a blender. The appeal of smoothies will continue to be great taste, an energy boost and a way to sneak more fruit and, in many cases, low or no fat yogurt into the diet consistent with the recommendations in the latest Dietary Guidelines. Some smoothies are also providing added nutrients for targeted nutritional benefits.

Packaged Facts expects the market for retail

smoothies will get more crowded as manufacturers and branded product marketers develop credible smoothie propositions and experiment with a range of category platforms, positioning, ingredient-specific product benefits and retail strategies that capitalize on converging trends and consumer needs. A big hurdle for retail smoothies in general is consumer perception. According to research conducted by flavor company Virginia Dare of Brooklyn, NY, 35% of consumers indicated that ready-to-drink smoothies couldn’t taste as good as blender-prepared while only 25% said they could taste as good as blender-prepared.

(Food Business News, Nov. 8, 2011)

Nevertheless, reports of new product introductions of juice products described as smoothies have increased over the last three years. In terms of flavors, strawberry banana was reported to be the most consumed smoothie flavor followed by strawberry, mango and tropical fruit. (Food Business News, Nov. 8, 2011) In 2012 there will be opportunity to experiment with new smoothie flavors to create product

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news or simply to swap out poorer performing variants. The importance and widespread acceptance of smoothie beverages is apparent in the crossover of smoothies as a flavor type in the confectionery category. Jelly Belly is offering a Smoothie Blend jelly bean flavor variant containing five smoothie flavors: strawberry banana, pineapple-pear, cherry-passion fruit, mandarin orange-mango and mixed berry. (www.jellybelly.com, Nov. 23, 2011) Recent smoothie product introductions include Dole Shakers, sold frozen containing yogurt beads and small fruit pieces. It requires adding juice before shaking 30 to 45 seconds to obtain an “instant real-fruit smoothie”. The positioning is clear; the website states “Bye, bye blender” and the product is available in strawberry, strawberry-banana and mixed berry. All three varieties are said to contain pre and probiotics (live and active cultures) while strawberry also has 5 grams of fiber added and mixed berry has 5 grams of additional protein. (www.dole.com, viewed Nov. 21, 2011)

Already at select retailers in late 2011, Dole

Shakers will be available nationwide in April 2012. (Refrigerated & Frozen Foods, Oct. 31, 2011) Also not requiring a blender and sold in the freezer case are smoothies from Nestle under the Dreyer’s and Edy’s brands in strawberry, mixed berry, tropical and sunrise blend. These are positioned as better-for-you products that provide refreshment upon adding milk and stirring for 30 seconds. (Food Business News, Nov. 8, 2011; www.edys.com, viewed Nov. 21, 2011) Other products recently introduced that require a blender include retail versions of smoothies carrying the Jamba Juice brand name from Inventure Foods. These products sold in the freezer case are available in the shop flavors: Mango-a-go-go (mango and pineapple with non-fat yogurt), Razzmatazz (strawberry, blueberry and raspberry with non-fat yogurt), Strawberries Wild (strawberry and banana with non-fat yogurt), Caribbean Passion (mango, strawberry and peach with non-fat yogurt) and Orange Dream Machine (peaches, orange and vanilla flavored non-fat yogurt). All flavors contain all-natural fruits and yogurt with an “antioxidant boost”, one full serving of fruit and 100% daily value of vitamin C per serving. Directions call for adding juice and blending. (www.jambajuice.com, viewed Nov. 23, 2011) Yoplait Frozen Smoothies from General Mills are available in blueberry pomegranate, strawberry banana, strawberry mango pineapple and triple berry. They contain real fruit, live and active cultures, calcium and provide a full serving of fruit and 100% daily value of vitamin C. Like the Edy’s and Dreyer’s smoothies, these just require the addition of milk, but a blender is needed to transform the frozen fruit pieces into a smooth beverage. (Yoplait.com, viewed Nov. 21, 2011) 88

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The Campbell Soup Company is offering V8 V-Fusion positioned as the first 100% fruit and vegetable juice smoothie available in the juice aisle in strawberry banana, wild berry and mango. Described as “deliciously thick”, the product contains no added sugar, artificial flavors or preservative and no dairy ingredients, potentially appealing to vegans and others with certain dairy restrictions. Each serving also contains 2 grams of fiber and vitamins A, C, and E. (www.businesswire.com, Oct. 6, 2011) Table 7-1 summarizes the major new product introductions described above, although these represent just a handful of the over 30 reported new product introductions described as smoothies for the 52 weeks ending September 30, 2011. (Product Launch Analytics) Table 7-1 Recently Launched U.S. Retail Smoothie Products Brand

Selling Aisle

Just Add:

Mixing Technique

Ingredient Enhancements

V8 V-Fusion Smoothie

Juice

Juice

None

--

Shakers

Frozen Fruit

Juice

Shake

Fiber, Protein

Yoplait

Frozen Fruit

Milk

Blender

--

Jamba Juice

Frozen Fruit

Juice

Blender

Vitamin C

Dreyer's/Edy's

Ice Cream

Milk

Stir

--

Company

Campbell Soup Dole General Mills Inventure Foods Nestle

Source: Packaged Facts

Jazzing Up the Juice In addition to the activity expected in the juice bar arena as a result of Starbucks purchase of Evolution Fresh, Packaged Facts predicts that more vegetable juices will be on offer, as well as fruit and vegetable juice blends; some positioned as blends, some as vegetable juices and others as fruit juices; but they will contain both types of ingredients.

Enhanced waters, especially still

popular coconut water, with juice added, and lemonade and limeade look likely to remain popular with flavor extensions, in combination with other fruits or beverages. Juice Bar Makeover – Revolution or Evolution? The $1.6 billion premium juice market looks poised for an overhaul in 2012 given Starbucks $30 million acquisition of Evolution Fresh, a small, upscale juice maker. Wishing to get a foothold in the growing health and wellness sector, Packaged Facts expects the coffee giant will attempt to January 2012

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transform a commodity into a highly differentiated brand, both in foodservice and at retail, through a combination of juice processing technology, customer experience and marketing. The timing of this acquisition coincides with the growing popularity of natural beverages, growing presence of flavor blends in juice and juice drinks, consumer appeal of fresh fruits and vegetables generally and the government’s 2010 Dietary Guidelines recommendations that consumers increase their consumption of these foods. Starbucks plans to open its first juice bar, of roughly the same size as one of its coffeehouses, midyear in 2012 on the West Coast.

(Nation’s Restaurant News, Nov. 10,

2011) Evolution Fresh, started by Naked Juice founder Jimmy Rosenberg, makes juice from fresh produce received daily; cracking, peeling, pressing and squeezing raw fruits and vegetables. A key point of differentiation for a number of the brand’s juices is the use of high pressure pasteurization instead of heating, thereby retaining the fresh juice taste, flavor and nutrients. (evolutionfresh.com, viewed Nov. 24, 2011) Starbucks’ ambition to create a differentiated premium juice segment is not limited to foodservice. The company plans to sell Evolution Fresh juices at its coffee shops in place of Naked Juice, and to increase retail distribution beyond the juice company’s current retail customers on the West Coast, which have included major store chains such as Albertson’s, Safeway and Whole Foods. (Starbucks.com, Nov. 10, 2011; Nation’s Restaurant News, Nov. 10, 2011; evolutionfresh.com, viewed Nov. 24, 2011) Prior to the Starbucks acquisition, Evolution Fresh offerings included seven juice product lines including: •

Fresh Squeezed (grapefruit, orange, organic grapefruit, organic orange)

•

Juiced Fruit (orange juice, organic tangerine, pomegranate, tangerine and watermelon)

•

Protein (Banilla® - banana and pressed coconut; Protein 30 – including orange, pineapple and apple juice, mango, banana, whey and soy protein, coconut milk and vitamin C; Vanilla Chai – including soy milk, chai, agave, soy protein, mango, vanilla extract and vitamins)

•

Refresh (organic ginger limeade, organic strawberry lemonade and pomegranate lemonade)

•

Superfruit (Acai Amazon – a chocolate berry flavor blended with mango and whey protein; Super Green® - a blend of five fruits and superfoods including spirulina blend made with

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spirulina, blue green algae, chlorella, wheat grass, barley grass and dulse) •

Veggie (carrot, Essential Greens – juices of celery, spinach, parsley, cucumber, kale, romaine and at least two kinds of sprouts: wheat grass, sunflower greens and clover sprouts; Incredible Vegetable – juices of carrots, celery, beet, cucumber, spinach, parsley, kale, romaine and at least three of the following sprouts: sunflower grass, clover, radish, wheat grass; organic carrot, Organic V – a blend of carrot, celery, beet, spinach and parsley. (evolutionfresh.com, viewed Nov. 24, 2011)

•

Vitamin C (Defense UP – including orange juice, pineapple, apple juice, mango, vitamin C, Echinacea and citrus bioflavonoid; Magical Mango – mango, orange juice, apple juice, acerola and banana; Strawberry C 1000 – apple juice, strawberry puree, acerola puree, mango puree, orange juice sugar, vitamin C and citrus bioflavonoid)

If Starbucks is able to replicate its coffee success with premium juice, it could prove to be a category game changer with longer term implications for both foodservice and retail. If it can grow the entire category, it may forever change consumer palates and expectations of the experience and taste of juice and juice drinks.

Competitive response from Jamba Juice will be of interest to

monitor in the coming year. Jamba Juice announced that it plans to open JambaGo in 2012, described as a non-traditional express version of the chain that could open up growth in elementary and secondary schools, colleges and other outlets. (Nation’s Restaurant News, Nov. 10, 2011) Retail Market - Less Juicy? Manufacturers of retail juice products will be facing new uncertainties in 2012 as a result of Starbucks presence in the category and the 2010 Dietary Guidelines that warn against consuming 100% fruit juice in excess. The Dietary Guidelines indicate, “Although 100% fruit juice can be part of a healthful diet, it lacks dietary fiber and when consumed in excess can contribute extra calories. The majority of the fruit recommended should come from whole fruits, including fresh, canned frozen and dried fruits, rather than from juice. When juices are consumed, 100% juice should be encouraged.” (Corporate Profiles: State of the Industry, Oct. 2011) The recent history of stagnant sales coupled with Starbucks announcement and the guidance of the Dietary Guidelines should have juice processors working harder than ever in 2012 to bring innovations to the category that go beyond the obvious smaller single and multi-serve packaging configuration changes such as smaller cartons and bottles, the return of the quart size, and single serve containers in sizes consistent with government nutrition labeling requirements.

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While there was little overall growth in the shelf-stable bottled juice and juice drink category and the refrigerated juice and juice drink category in the 52 weeks ended May 15, 2011, refrigerated fruit drink increased 6.7% to $727 million while shelf stable bottled juice and juice drinks increased 9% to over $1.4 billion. Hawaiian Punch continued to be the top seller. Refrigerated lemonade increased 16% to $383 million over the same period. (www.bevindustry.com, July 11, 2011) Based on data from Beverage Marketing Corporation, share of retail sales volume by flavor in 2010 showed that orange juice accounted for 50% of juice sold, followed by apple (16%), blends (15%), others (11%), grape (3%), grapefruit (3%), cider (1%) and prune (