Flood Preparedness and GIS

Term Paper

Challenges and limitations of Present Practices of flood preparedness system, and their solution: A Case Study of Gowainghat Upazilla

Course Teachers Ahmed Shahnewaz Chowdhury

Submitted by Shah Jamal Akhlaque Student ID : 1130719

Fall 2011

School of Environmental Science and Management, INDEPENDENT University

Table of contents:

Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………………04 Abstract………………………………………………………………………………05 Chapter# 01 Introduction…………………………………………………………….06 1.1 Background of the study………………………………………………06 1.2 Objective of the study…………………………………………………06 1.3 Research question……………………………………………………..06 1.4 Methodology…………………………………………………………..07 1.5 Quality consideration………………………………………………….08 1.6 Study area……………………………………………………………..09 1.7 Literature review………………………………………………………12 Chapter#02 Flood in Bangladesh and Gowainghat………………………………..…17 2.1 Disaster in Bangladesh………………………………………………...17 2.2 Floods in Bangladesh………………………………………………….18 2.3 Risk profile of Gowainghat……………………………………………25 2.4 Risk map of Gowainghat………………………………………………33

Chapter# 03 Present Practices of Flood Preparedness in the Study Area…………………..36 Chapter# 04 Limitations and Challenges of Present Practices of flood Preparedness……..42 4.1 At Different Stages of flood Preparedness…………………………..…42 4.2 Challenges at Different Stages of Flood Preparedness………………...43 4.3 Assessment of Need for Improvement…………………………………45 Chapter#05 Proposals for Improvement and Conclusion…………………………………….50 Chapter#06 References……………………………………………………………………….54

2|Page

List of charts, tables and pictures List of Charts

1. Outline of the research methodology………………………………………………08 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Yearwise coverage of flooded area during 1954-2008………………………………...19 Flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh…………………………………………36 Analysis of challenges………………………………………………………………….44 Analysis from the perspective of ideal situation………………………………………..48 Feasibility of using technology………………………………………………………....49

List of tables

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Quality considerations……………………………………………………………..08 Comparative elevation status of different physical components………………………26 Water level of some rivers during the flood of 1988 and 1998………………………..28 Types of households and population…………………………………………………..29 Types of households and population in Gowainghat………………………………….31 Household structure wise population in Gowainghat upazilla………………………...31 Age and gender wise population in Gowainghat upazilla……………………………..32 Analysis from the perspective of failure……………………………………………….47

List of pictures

1. Administrative map of Gowainghat upazilla………………………………………10 2. Causes of floods in Bangladesh……………………………………………………22

3. Disasters in Bangladsh…………………………………………………………….23 4. Digital map of google earth showing maximum elevation of haors/ beels………..25 5. Google earth showing maximum elevation of households………………………..26 6. Google earth digital image measuring elevation of vital facilities………………..27

7. Households and roads of Gowainghat submerged in the flood water……….……28 8. Flood map of 2007…………………………………………………….…………..34 9. Risk map of Gowainghat upazilla…………………………………………………35 10.Flood in 2004 in Gowainghat…………………………………………………..…40

3|Page

Acknowledgement

This term paper has been prepared as a mandatory requirement for Master of Science in Natural Resources and Disaster Management from the School of Environmental Science and Management under Independent University. The study has started in September 2011, and ended in December 2011. Most of the information of this study has been collected through secondary sources though some of the information has been collected through visits to the study area, observation during visit and informal interview with concerned people and experience of the reporter during his assignment in the study area. Ahmed Shahnewaz Chowdhury, Assistant Professor, SESM, Independent University has given his invaluable time for this study. This could never be possible without his guidance.

Shah Jamal Akhlaque Student ID# 1130719 School of Environmental Science and Management , Independent University, Dhaka

4|Page

Abstract Bangladesh is a densely populated country so every disaster has significant impact on it. Due to economic inability or limitation it is not possible for the country to wait for the disaster to happen, and take corrective measure after that. So preparedness and disaster risk reduction has always been the most feasible means for the country against all types of disaster including floods. It is needless to mention that flood is the most frequent and most influential disaster in Bangladesh as most of the area of this country belongs to flood plain. Due to its geographical location and topological attributes, Gowainghat upazilla of Sylhet district is considered as one of the most vulnerable upazillas of the country to flood. This upazilla has been taken as study area mainly for three reasons (1) It is one of the most flood prone areas of the country (2) Findings of this upazilla can be applicable to other upazillas of the country including some of those in India, Sri Lanks, Myanmar, Vietnam and some other parts of the world, and (3) The reporter of this study has worked in the area for more than five years and much familiar with disaster related activities in the area. Present practices of flood preparedness are mostly manual with minimum use of cutting edge technology and innovation. This dependence on human interactions often gets stagnant due to widespread bureaucracy in the country as a result people as well as the economy suffers. This study has collected vulnerability related data from web-based GIS software like google earth and secondary sources like Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. It has collected data on present practices of flood preparedness through documents of Bangladesh Disaster Management Bureau, news paper cuttings, field visits, informal interview with people and government and non-government officials. Collected data has been analyzed through different analysis techniques names Critical Path Method (CPM), Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Concept Fan, Technology and People Analysis etc. The final outcome of this study is a set of recommendations based on the drawbacks of present practices of flood preparedness. For better understanding of

5|Page

the recommendations a conceptual frame has also been discussed briefly at the end of this report.

6|Page

Chapter# 1: Introduction

1.1 Background of the study A disaster is defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a

society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. The natural disasters have become fast recurring phenomena all over the world causing huge loss of human lives and crumbling impact on the economy of a country. The importance of uncertainty in natural hazard risk management has received recent attention. On an average 4,888 people are killed and 59 million getting affected annually from various types of disasters. Of all the natural hazards, floods occur most often and are the most widespread in scope and severity in Bangladesh. It is observed that there is a fourfold rise during last fifty years. High magnitude floods during the monsoon season are considered to be Bangladesh’s recurring and leading natural disaster (Vishwas et al., 1994). The study will focus on the development of an effective flood preparedness system in Gowainghat upazilla of Sylhet district.

1.2 Objective of the study: •

Propose recommendations for an effective flood preparedness mechanism based on drawbacks of present practices for the same.

1.3 Research question: How challenges and limitations of present practices of flood preparedness in Gowainghat upazilla can be addressed?

7|Page

1.4 Methodology

Based on the research question, three independent variable has been identified, which are physical vulnerability of the upazilla to flood, present practices for flood preparedness and challenges and limitations of present practices of flood preparedness. The only dependent variable for this study is “GIS based measures to be taken”. Internet based GIS maps, data collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, visit to the upazilla and discussion with concerned officilas were ways to collect information related to the physical vulnueability of the upazilla to flood. On the otherhand, present guideline of Disaster Management Bureau, standing order for disaster and other policy guidelines has been used to identify ideal practices, and practical experience of the author in the same upazilla and discussion with concerned upazilla officials have been used to identify present practices for flood preparedness. Lastly, reports of the NGOs, which worked in the upazilla during the flood of 2004, comments of the upazilla Nirbahi Officer and some other upazilla level government and NGO officials, and visits to the affected upazilla during flood and discussion with affected people have helped in collecting information related to the challenges and limitatons of present flood preparedness activity. Data collected from all the above sources have been sorted in tables, charts and maps, and used for mapping and analysis. Knowledge on the subject matter learnt through the courses of PPDM, INDEPENDENT

University, and experience of

working in the study area for more than five years has been used to analyze data. Exploration of possibility of using GIS in addressing identified challenges and limitations has been done based on research reports on flood preparedness and use of GIS identifying practices of GIS based flood preparedness in other parts of the world, and name of the research have been mentioned in the literature review part of this report.

8|Page

The methodology for the study can be summarized as follows-

Chart#01: Outline of the research methodology

1.5 Quality Considerations

Standard Truth value

Measures Structure of the study has been designed as per reports on similar types of research done in Bangladesh, India, Netherlands and Costa Rica. Names of these researches have been mentioned on the literature review, methodology and

Applicabilit

reference section of this report. The recommendation of this study will be applicable to highly flood prone area,

y

particularly areas with peninsular attributes having hills and highlands around it. One of the reason for this applicability is that the study has been designed based on the study of similar types of areas. 9|Page

Consistency

Data has been collected from most reliable sources like disaster management bureau, Bangladesh Bureau of statistics, ITC, Google earth and other organization with similar credibility. Recommendations have been made based on academically accepted analysis methods and well documented experience

Neutrality

and practices in other countries. As data has been collected from trusted and well acceptable secondary sources there will be negligible scope of potential biases or interference of the researcher out of the process. Table# 01: Quality consideration

1.6 Study Area: Gowainghat Upazila (sylhet district) with an area of 486.10 sq km, is bounded by Meghalay state of India on the north, sylhet sadar and jaintiapur upazilas on the south, Jaintiapur upazila on the east, companiganj (Sylhet) upazila on the west. Main rivers are Sari, Goyain, piyain, Ichamati, Kapna, and dauki; Nainda, Tilgulli, Lenguda, Kurshanti are main haors; Chatla, Shildikuri, Harinmara are main water bodies. Jafflong is an important tourist spot. Tamabil land port is used for importing coal and other goods from India. Gowainghat (Town) consists of 2 mouzas. It has an area of 3.51 sq km. It has a population of 4111; male 52.44%, female 47.56%; density of population is 1171 per sq km. Literacy rate among town people is 22.7%.

10 | P a g e

Picture#01: Adiminstrative map of Gowainghat upazilla

Administration: Gowainghat thana, now an upazila, was established in 1908. The upazila consists of 8 union parishads, 260 mouzas and 264 villages. Religious institutions: Mosques 400, temple 20, church 2. Demography: Population 169937; male 51.58%, female 48.42%. Muslim 89.2%, Hindu 8.9%, Buddhist 0.6%, Christian 0.4% and others 0.9%; ethnic nationals: 1953 Khasis at Jaflong. Literacy and educational institutions: Average literacy 18.1%; male 23.6%, female 12.6%. Educational institutions: college 1, secondary school 15, primary school (government) 85, satellite school 4, adult literacy centre 2. Gowainghat High School is a notable educational institution.

11 | P a g e

Main occupations: Agriculture 50.16%, fishing 2.36%, agricultural labourer 17.64%, wage labourer 9.43%, commerce 6.53%, service 3.09%, others 10.79%. Land: Usable land 26639.01 hectares; fallow land 9199.11 hectares, khash land 1020.39 hectares; single crop 46.90%, double crop 50.68% and triple crop land 2.42%. Land controls among the peasant, 23.43% are landless, 43.16% marginal, 27.00% intermediate, and 6.41% rich. Value of land Market value of the first grade agricultural land is about Tk 85000 per 0.01 hectare. Main crops: Paddy, mustard seed, tea, betel leaf. Extinct and nearly extinct crops: Tisi (linseed), Til,(sesame), cassia leaf are entirely extinct; Taykar and Satkara are nearly extinct. Other sectors: Fisheries, dairies, poultries Fishery 8, dairy 2 and poultry 15. Manufactories Stone crushing plant 25, rice mill 30, brick field 3, tea processing factory 1, saw mill 2. Cottage industries Mats, popularly known as Shital Paty, are made from Murta (one kind of cane). Different kinds of household goods are made from bamboo and cane. Hats, bazars and fairs Hats and bazars are 20, most noted of which are Gowainghat, Radhanagar, Jaflong, Ballaghat, Hadarpar, Salutikar. Communication facilities: Roads: pucca 49.24 km and mud road 361.4 km. Traditional transport Palanquin and bullock cart. These means of transport are extinct or nearly extinct. NGO activities: brac, grameen bank, Concern, caritas, CARE, FIVDB, Hunger. Health centres Upazila health centre 1, rural health centre 11, family welfare centre 5, charitable dispensary 1.

12 | P a g e

1.7 Literature Review As a high tech and cost effective solution for flood preparedness, this study has given much emphasis on Geographic Information System (GIS). A good percentage of literatures reviewed for this study were on GIS, use of GIS as tools for disaster preparedness as well as for flood preparedness.

1.7.1 Geographical Information Systems A GIS is a system for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, manipulating, analyzing, and displaying data which are spatially referenced to the Earth," (Department of the Environment, 1987). Remote Sensing involves the use of aircraft or satellites to collect photographs or scanned images of the Earth's surface. High resolution remote sensing data may produce the best results; however, they are typically expensive. It is one of the objectives of this study to assess methodologies for rapidly producing regional (1:250,000 to 1:50,000 scale) geo-hazard risk maps and deriving information from free or low cost remotely sensed imagery. Landsat Thematic Mapper data (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) multi-spectral imagery are used, along with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) derived elevation data. Landsat and SRTM datasets are free, easily accessible, and have almost total global coverage (Teeuw et al., 2005). GIS have had a slower uptake in less developed countries due to lack of hardware, resources, and human capital (Andrews Deller, 2007). Satellite 24 Journal of Maps Student Edition, 2008, 23-38 Morris, N. remote sensing is usually the most up to date source of data and information for earth resources. It is synoptic, and it allows regional studies to be undertaken relatively cheaply and quickly. With the use of GIS and remote sensing, the possible impacts of natural phenomena (such as oods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions) on buildings, populations, and infrastructure can be modeled and visualized. GIS and remote sensing are powerful tools for analyzing hazards, vulnerability, and risks, and then producing direct disaster scenarios which in turn help disaster managers. Simple, low cost GIS systems can allow local authorities to more effectively manage areas impacted by hazards, incorporate local knowledge, and ensure community participation. 1.7.2 GIS as a tool for disaster preparedness GIS is a computer based system capable of assembling, storing, manipulating, and displaying geographically referenced information. However, the definition by NASA 13 | P a g e

seems to cover all aspects which state that GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware, software and trained personnel linking topographic, demographic, utility, facility, image and other resource data that is geographically referenced. GIS technology supports spatial data handling and analysis efficiently and can be used to create an integrated geo-database on biological (agriculture), meteorological (rainfall), hydrological (water resources), socio-economic (population) indicators, etc. for their subsequent use in modeling the simple/ complex disaster related indices to reflect the vulnerability of an area to the disaster. GIS based system can be used as an integrated administrative and decision support system to respond to the immediate humanitarian and disaster relief operation during and after the event. Disaster management techniques are based on the economic status of the country and hence mapping and information acquisition is vital for disaster management. GIS supports all aspects of disaster management. Disaster planning, response, mitigation, and recovery all become more efficient through the use of GIS (Suresh et al., 2005).Government of Bangladesh constituted a High Powered Committee for the efficient implementation of disaster management strategy, according to which about thirty disasters have been categorized into five sub groups. They are as follows: Water and climate related hazards Geologically related hazards Chemical, Industrial and Nuclear related disasters Accident related disasters Biologically related disasters. Further, GIS for disaster management helps in the following activities: -Visualization of spatial distribution of events during the occurrence of a disaster. - Identification of location of various service centers in the affected area. - Maintenance of critical communication linkages between affected areas with rest of the world. - Facilitate continuous monitoring of the situation and feedback response.

14 | P a g e

- Help modeling of different disaster situations and identify corresponding vulnerable areas and risk zones. Emergency management poses significant challenges for data collection, data management, discovery, translation, integration, visualization and communication. Emergency management can be managed well through spatial planning and one requires a GIS for such a management. Effective emergency management requires the thorough use and understanding of the semantics of the heterogeneous information sources with their many differences:

1.7.3 GIS for flood preparedness: Geographic Information System (GIS) is an extremely powerful tool for the management of flood regardless topological attributes of the area being covered. It is equally effective in all the phases of flood preparedness. Its use in mapping topological flood risk and flood forecasting is immense. It plays, also, a crucial role in flood monitoring through mapping of inundated area using remote sensing.

1.7.4 Literature used for the study Following documents were reviewed during preparation of this study1. Disaster Preparedness using IT Tools: Case Studies on the use of ICT

and GIS Derived tools for Micro-Level Drought Preparedness. Sreedhar Ganapuram#1, R Nagarajan*2, V Ramnaresh Kumar #3, N Lavanya #4, Asil Gerard Sylvester #5 , V. Balaji #6 #ICRISAT, Patancheru 502 324: Some ideas taken from this study has been recommended for flood preparedness in this study. 2. FLOOD EMERGENCY PLANNING: World Meteorological

Department: Some tools of this report has been used for analysis. 3. GIS based Flood Management-Case study of Allahabad City: Syed

Hasan Abbas, Research Scholar ,Research Scholar, Department of civil 15 | P a g e

Engineering MNNIT Allahabad : This study report has been used in designing the structure of this study. 4. Ideal location for food shelter: a geographic information systemapproach

J. Sanyal1 and X.X. Lu2 1 Department of Geography, Taki Government College, Taki, West Bengal, India 2 Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore:

Some ideas of this study has been

used for analysis. 5. Realtime web-based remote sensing and GIS for flood management

jointly done by ministry of planning, Khulna University and Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology: Ideas of this report has been used to collected and analyze data. Some recommendations were also extracted from here. 6. GIS Technology for Disaster and Emergency Management: by Russ

Johnson. Published by ESRI: This literature has been studied for better understanding of GIS and its use in disaster management particularly for flood preparedness. 7. Challenges for GIS in Emergency preparedness and Response. Published

by ESRI: This report has been used to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of GIS technology in flood preparedness. 8. Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic

West Bengal, India: This study has guided in analyzing the flood hazard of Gowainghat. 9. Low-cost remote sensing and GIS for regional disaster risk reduction,

North West Costa Rica by Naomi Morris: Ideas of this report has been used to collected and analyze data. Some recommendations were also extracted from here. 10. GIS as a tool in emergency management process by Leonid V. Stoimenov, Member, IAENG, Aleksandar Lj. Milosavljević, and Aleksandar S. Stanimirović: This paper has showed how GIS could be used to support decision making in emergency risk management. 16 | P a g e

11. GIS based natural disaster mapping: A case study by O. Avsar a,*, Z.

Duran a, D. Z. Seker a, M. Hisir a, M. Shrestha b : Guided to assess the flood hazard of Gowainghat upazilla. 12. Bangladesh: Flood Management: This study was very useful Information is provided about the approach and long-year experience on flood management in that country, with strategies that have seen continuous change after a number of disastrous floods. This was particularly useful in understanding the dynamics of flood preparedness in Bangladesh. 13. The use of GIS as disaster preparedness and response tool: The University of West Indies: Guided to explore possible GIS based solution for flood preparedness. 14. Geo-Informaton for Disaster Management by Peter Van Oosterom and others: This literature guided on the ways to collecting and analyzing GIS data. 15. Role of remote sensing in disaster management: Nirupama, PhD: This information literature covered all the ways of using remote sensing technology and disaster management. Ideas of this book have been focus on flood related preparedness in this study.

17 | P a g e

Chapter# 2.0: Flood in Bangladesh and Gowainghat

2.1 Disaster in Bangladesh Bangladesh being situated in a region of the floodplains of the mighty rivers the Ganges-Padma, Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the Meghna commonly known as G-B-M is predominantly a flat terrain except for the fringes along the north, north-eastern and the eastern regions along with the pleistocene terraces of Barind tract and the Modhupur tract. The Bay of Bengal bounds the country's 750 km coastline in the south. The funnel shaped size of the Bay of Bengal and the low elevation of the coastal region induces the cyclones hit Bangladesh with more vigour than usual. The major trans-boundary rivers, G-B-M, drain all its water from about 88% of its catchment area lying outside the country. This along with the heavy rainfall area outside makes the country vulnerable to flash floods, high floods and at times prolonged floods. The cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal often leave trails of devastation along the coastal region of Bangladesh. It damages the lives and properties including crops and infrastructure in the area. These cyclones (March-May & Oct-November) are being monitored through the satellites taking images several times a day. The cyclones generate surges up to a height of several meters which sweep through the flat coastal region killing people, animals and destroy other fauna and flora. The surge height can also be estimated from the satellite analysis. Tornadoes often formed at different placed, however are difficult to be located ahead of occurrence because of their small size and short duration. The monsoon clouds (July-October) are being traced from the satellite images and the rainfall is being predicted in and around the country. The high downstream flow of the major rivers from the catchment area during monsoon adds to the misery of the people by causing flood. At times there are heavy downpours along the hilly region and the sudden onrush of water causes flash flood. The coincidence of high downstream flow in all the three major rivers along with the local (in-country) rainfall causes devastating floods. Droughts cause delay in agricultural processes and 18 | P a g e

sometimes inflict heavy loss of production. The floods and the droughts are somehow related to the El- Nino La- Nina situations. Erosion is another disaster that prevails much in Bangladesh. About 75 rivers are continuously eroding banks and depositing silt and sand along their courses. The river erosion play havoc in certain areas where dwelling houses, fertile agricultural lands and infrastructure are all taken into the river. This renders the affected people to absolute destitution. Remote sensing techniques are being applied to monitor the vulnerable areas for erosion and predictions are also being made. These erosions occur predominantly along the major rivers and the coastal region of Bangladesh. Landslide is another event that causes lives and damages properties particularly during the monsoon. The hilly regions are often cleared of their vegetation and forest for economic reasons. Inconsiderate cutting down of the hills causes landslides in the Sylhet and Chittagong region of the country. These activities can also be monitored from temporal analysis of satellite data. The environmental changes thus caused by human actions, deforestation, land use changes in Bangladesh which hinders agricultural productions. Earth quakes in minor forms have been happening in the hilly regions particularly in the Chittagong area that threatens Bangladesh of an impending disaster. The Government of Bangladesh have been extremely alert and actions are being taken to establish sysmological stations at different places in the country. Forest fire has not yet posed serious problems here except for the Magurcherra incident.

2.2 Floods in Bangladesh: Bangladesh is one of most flood prone areas of the world. The South-Asian country of Bangladesh is prone to the natural disaster of flooding due to being situated on the Ganges Delta and the many tributaries flowing into the Bay of Bengal. The coastal flooding twinned with the bursting of Bangladesh's river banks is common and severely affects the landscape and Bangladeshi society. 75% of Bangladesh is less than 10m above sea level and 80% is flood plain, therefore rendering Bangladesh a nation very much at risk of further widespread damage despite its development, especially as its present flood defenses are unsustainable and somewhat amateur. Flooding normally occurs during the monsoon season from June to September during the monsoon. The convectional rainfall 19 | P a g e

of the monsoon is added to by relief rainfall caused by the Himalayas. Meltwater from the Himalayas is also a significant input and flood every year. Each year in Bangladesh about 26,000 km2, (around 18%) of the country is flooded, so far killing over 5000 people and destroying 7 million homes. During severe floods the affected area may exceed 75% of the country, as was seen in 1998. This volume is 95% of the total annual inflow. By comparison only about 187,000 million m 3, of streamflow is generated by rainfall inside the country during the same period. The floods have caused devastation in Bangladesh throughout history, especially during the years 1966, 1987, 1998 and 1988. The 2007 South Asian floods also affected a large portion of Bangladesh. Small scale flooding in Bangladesh is required to sustain the agricultural industry, as sediment deposited by floodwaters fertilises fields. The water is required to grow rice, so natural flooding replaces the requirement of arteficial irrigation, which is time consuming and costly to build. Salt deposited on fields from high rates of evaporation is removed during floods, preventing the land from becoming infertile. The benefits of flooding are clear in El Niño years when the monsoon is interrupted. As El Nino becomes increasingly frequent, and flood events appear to become more extreme, the previously relaiable monsoon may be succeeded by years of drought or devastating floods. Also some 3 thousand people were left homeless or killed.

Chart#02:: Year-wise coverage of flooded area during 1954-2008 Source: Bangladesh Water Development Board

BWDB has calculated the flooded area of Bangladesh every year from 1954 and until 2008. For an area to be included in the flooded area it needs only to be flooded at one 20 | P a g e

incidence during the considered monsoon season, i.e. the areas contributing to the flooded area was not necessarily flooded at the same time. There were e.g. six separate floods within the 1987 rainy season and three in 1988. The flooded area calculated by BWDB is mostly related to some kind of damage, it may be damage to crops, houses, escape of fish stocks etc. BWDB divide flood into severe, moderate and normal flood, where normal means no damage. If a Thana is severely flooded then BWDB assumes as a thumbs rule that 35-40% of the Thana is flooded, but the percentage is increased as water level increases based on human judgment. During the stressing 1988- and 1998-flood the percentage was increased considerably as water levels were far above danger level. Approximately 18% of Bangladesh is river, lake or other water bodies and this area is in general not included in the given flood area. As should be clear from the above explanation the informed flood area by BWDB is not a very precise number. Presently FFWC is working on producing flood maps on the basis of satellite pictures. It will enable the centre to give consistent, precise and instantaneously information on flooded area. 2.2.1 Categories In Bangladesh following types of floods are normally encountered. Flash floods in the eastern and northern rivers are characterized by a sharp rise followed by a relatively rapid recession, often causing high flow velocities that damage crops and property. Local floods due to high localized rainfall of long duration in the monsoon season often generate water volumes in excess of the local drainage capacity, causing localized floods due to drainage congestion. Monsoon floods from the major rivers generally rise slowly and the period of rise and fall may extend from 10 to 20 days or more. Spilling through distributaries and over the banks of the major rivers causes the most extensive flood damage, particularly when the three major rivers rise simultaneously. Floods due to storm surges in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, which are generated by tropical cyclone, cause extensive damage to life and property. These cyclones are predominant during the post-monsoon (October and November) and pre-monsoon (April to June) period.

21 | P a g e

2.2.2 Flood history In the 19th century, six major floods were recorded in 1842, 1858, 1871, 1875, 1885 and 1892. Eighteen major floods occurred in the 20th century. Those of 1987, 1988 and 1955 were of catastrophic consequence. More recent floods include 2004 and 2010. The catastrophic flood of 1987 occurred throughout July and August and affected 57,300 km2 of land, (about 40% of the total area of the country) and was estimated as a once in 30-70 year event. The flood's main cause was the creation of Erranticophrus (top soil wash away reaction) from the inhabitants of the Himalayas irrigating their mountains vertically. The seriously affected regions were on the western side of the Brahmaputra, the area below the confluence of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra and considerable areas north of Khulna. The flood of 1988, which was also of catastrophic consequence, occurred throughout August and September. The waters inundated about 82,000 km2 of land, (about 60% of the area) and its return period was estimated at 50–100 years. Rainfall together with synchronisation of very high flows of all the three major rivers of the country in only three days aggravated the flood. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, was severely affected. The flood lasted 15 to 20 days. In 1998, over 75% of the total area of the country was flooded. It was similar to the catastrophic flood of 1988 in terms of the extent of the flooding. A combination of heavy rainfall within and outside the country and synchronization of peak flows of the major rivers contributed to the river. The 2004 flood was very similar to the 1988 and 1998 floods with two thirds of the country under water. The capital city of Dhaka was literally swimming in sewage like rats. Dozens of villages were inundated when rain pushed the rivers of northwestern Bangladesh over their banks in early October 2005. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on Terra satellite captured the top image of the flooded Ghaghat and Atrai Rivers on October 12, 2005. The deep blue of the rivers is spread across the countryside in the flood image.

22 | P a g e

Picture# 02: Causes of floods in Bangladesh has been visualized through above illustration

2.2.3 Causes of floods in Bangladesh Bangladesh is one of the world most densely populated country and one of the

most susceptible countries to flood disasters. It also has one of the three most powerful rivers passing though it Ganges, Meghna and Brahmaputra. About one half of the land area in Bangladesh is at an elevation of less than 8 meters above sea level. Up to 30% of the country has been covered with flood waters. In 1991 more 200,000 deaths resulted from flooding and associated tropical cyclones.

23 | P a g e

Picture# 3: Disaster in Bangladesh Photo courtesy USAID There are many physical and human causes that allowed the floods to be worse; such as: The Physical Causes of the Floods: •

Most of the country consists of a huge flood plain and delta.

•

Snowmelt from the Himalayas takes place in late spring & summer.

•

70% of the total area is less than 1 meter above sea level.

•

10% of the land area is made up of Lakes and Rivers.

•

Bangladesh experiences heavy monsoon rains, especially over the highlands.

•

Tropical storms bring heavy rains and coastal flooding.

•

The main cause was the above average & long period of heavy rain which caused all 3 rivers to have their peak flow at the same time.

•

In the spring, melting snow from the Himalayas further increases the flood risks as torrents of melt water enter the rivers at their source.

24 | P a g e

The Human Causes of the Floods: •

Deforestation in Nepal and the Himalayas increases run off and add to deposition and flooding downstream.

•

Urbanization of the flood plain has increased magnitude & frequency of floods.

•

Global warming is blamed for sea level rise, increased snow melt & increased rainfall in the region.

•

The building of dams in India has increased the problem of sedimentation in Bangladesh.

•

Poorly maintained embankments (levees) leak & collapse in times of high discharge.

•

Increasing population pressure in Bangladesh itself has resulted in the sinking of many new wells resulting in the lowering of the water table and the subsequent subsidence of land making it even more prone to flooding.

2.2.4 Effect of flooding in Bangladesh: 2.2.4.1 Economy Economic loss ○ The flooding in Jiangxi of China in 1998 caused great damage. The economic loss was HK$156 billion, 400 buildings surrounding the lake were inundated, leaving more than 1 million people homeless. Resources used in reconstruction ○ After flooding, government has to input many resources for aiding or reconstruction, e.g., police force, fire control, aid worker, resources used for resisting flood, etc. This also brings loss to society. 2.2.4.2 Environment Traffic ○ Flooding will lead to the damages of roads, collapse of bridges or traffic congestion, which may affect the daily operation.

25 | P a g e

Damaging the farmland ○ Flooding brings too much water which will cause damage to farmland. 2.2.4.3 Human Beings People died and lose their homes ○

Flooding will cause death and injuries. In year 1998, 0.23 billion of people were affected in the flooding of Xian, including 3 thousands people dead, 1 million of people lost their homes. In 1996, the monsoon flood in India affected more than five million people in the northern and eastern part of the country. Severe floods have also killed some 200 people in India and Bangladesh and left millions homeless and starvation.

2.2.4.5 Disease Flooding usually brings infectious diseases, e.g. military fever, pneumonic plague, dermatopathia, dysentery, common cold (type A), breakbone fever, etc. And for those areas which have no electric supply due to flooding, food poisoning may occur as food may not be properly frozen.

2.3 Risk Profile of Gowainghat: Different studies (as referred in the literature review section of this report) suggested to consider elevation, geographic location, infrastructure, types of households and economy as a whole to assess the physical vulnerability of any area to flood.

26 | P a g e

2.3.1 Physical Vulnerability:

Haor/ beel area

Showing elevation value

Picture# 04: Digital map of google earth showing maximum elevation of haor/ beel areas As per the data presented in table#02, Gowainghat upazilla is a low elevation area as a whole. Average elevation of the area is 47.5ft from the sea level whereas average elevation of all the rivers in the area is 36ft from the sea level. On the other hand average elevation of the roads in the upazilla is also only 39.5 ft from the sea level, which is only 3.5 ft high from the average river level. Average elevation of households is only 11.5 ft high from the river level though minimum elevation of households is 1ft lower than minimum river elevation, and 11 ft lower than the maximum elevation of river elevation. Sl

1 2 3 4

Type

Haor and beels Households River Vital facilities and towns

Lowest elevation in fl from sea level 39

Highest elevation in fl from sea level

Average elevation in fl from sea level

Coverage

44

41.5

7890.63 acres

Very high

30 31 37

65 41 61

47.5 36 49

34133

High

Around Salutikar and upazilla headquarter 5 Roads 32 47 39.5 Kacha-203 km, Pakka-26 km 6 Tea gardens 56 94 75 4 gardens 7 Total area 30 65 47.5 486.10 sq km in fl from sea level Table#02: Comparative elevation status of different physical components*1

Possibility of being affected

Low Medium Very low Medium

27 | P a g e

Picture#05: Google earth image is showing the maximum elevation of households

1

Picture#05: Google earth digital image mueasuring elevation of vital facilities

Flood level of this upazilla is influenced by water level of some rivers which is flowing in the upazilla or around it.Bangladesh as well as the upazilla experienced severe flood in 1 Source: Population Census-2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet

28 | P a g e

1988 and 1998. Comparative status of water flow in these rivers during that time can be summarized as follows-

River

Station

Recorded

Danger Level

Maximum

(m)

Peak of the Year (m)

Days above Danger Level

1998

1988

1998

1988

Jamuna

Bahadurabad

20.62

19.50

20.37

20.62

66

27

Jamuna

Serajganj

15.12

13.35

14.76

15.12

48

44

Old

Jamalpur

18.00

17.00

17.47

17.83

31

8

Mymensingh

14.02

12.50

13.04

13.69

33

10

Surma

Kanaighat

15.26

13.20

15.00

15.10

73

75

Surma

Sylhet

11.95

11.25

11.72

11.95

14

21

Surma

Sunamganj

9.46

8.25

8.90

9.30

56

62

Kushiyara

Amalshid

18.28

15.85

17.61

17.50

54

65

Kushiyara

Sheola

14.33

13.50

14.14

14.09

37

80

Manu

Manu Rly Br

19.39

17.07

18.63

18.95

6

66

Manu

Moulvi Bazar

13.25

11.75

11.68

13.01

NA

25

Khowai

Habiganj

11.55

9.50

11.44

11.00

8

14

Upper Meghna

Bhairab Bazar

7.66

6.25

7.33

7.66

68

68

Gumti

Comilla

13.56

11.75

12.90

12.79

11

17

Brahmaputra Old Brahmaputra

Table#03: Water level in some rivers during the floods of 1988 and 1998

If we analyze data of the above table in light of the elevation presented earlier in this section we will find that most of the households, roads, vital facilities went under water in both occasions. Flood of 2004 was less severe than those in 1998 and 1988, but this upazilla could not survive due to its low elevation. Following picture taken during the flood in 2004 shows how households and roads are submerging to flood water.

29 | P a g e

Picture#07: Households and roads of Gowainghat were submerged to flood water during the flood of 2004

2.3.2 Infrastructure: Gowainghat is considered as one of the poorest upazillas of the country, which is well reflected in its infrastructure present in the table below. 79.90% of the total households are kutcha, and 97.967% of total households are not pucka meaning 202219 out of 207170 people, which means 97.61% of total population are living in unprotected households, which do not have capacity withstand high velocity flood water.

Locality and types of structures ALL AREA Population Dwelling Population Institution Population Urban Population Rural Population

All structures 34133 207170 33635 204521 142 975 818 4568 33315 202602

Jhupri 2970 16410 2904 16085 16 95 25 145 2945 16265

Kutcha 27274 164051 26954 162409 65 438 564 3251 26710 160800

Semi-Pucka 3195 21758 3141 21464 22 167 164 808 3031 20950

Pucka 694 4951 636 4563 39 275 65 364 629 4587

2

Table#04: Types of households and population associated with it*2

2 Source: Population Census-2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet

30 | P a g e

This upazilla has only 26km of pucka road against 203 kms of kutcha road. In most of the cases, these roads went through haors and beels having vast water body around it since these roads are mostly kutcha, and becomes completely damaged due to water force from all the four directions. As per above table, only 39 out of 142 institutions have pucka structures, and this is not a good sign as institutions are nearly used for shelter, flood response and providing vital facilities. If these institutions are made of kutcha structures and collapsed during flood, overall flood management becomes jeopardized. 2.3.3 Economical Vulnerability People of Gowainghat upazilla are highly dependent on agriculture and related industry. As we can see in the table on the following page, 56.48% of total population and 56.98% of rural population is directly related to agriculture. On the other hand 3.6% of total population and 3.55% of rural population are involved in wage/ salary, rent, remittance and other types of profession, which may not

31 | P a g e

Locality

Total

Agri/ Fishing/ AgriNonWeaver Industry Forestry/ Pisciculture Labor Agri worker Livestock labor All area 33635 11278 983 7720 4857 33 151 100 33.53 2.92 22.95 14.44 0.10 0.45 Urban 794 179 55 109 83 0 0 100 22.54 6.93 13.73 10.45 0 0 Rural 32841 11099 928 7611 4774 33 151 100 33.80 2.83 23.18 14.54 0.10 0.46 100 36.51 2.82 23.51 12.57 0.09 0.40 Basti 906 301 26 169 213 2 8 100 36.41 3.24 19.15 19.86 0.21 0.87 Table#05: Dwelling households and percentage of population by main source of income

Business shop

Hawker

Transport/ Commu.

Construction

Religious service

Salary/ Wage

Rent

Remittacne

Others

3157 9.39 147 18.51 3010 9.17 9.38 80 9

65 0.19 2 0.25 63 0.19 0.16 0 0

227 0.67 0 0 227 0.69 0.63 0 0

165 0.49 5 0.63 160 0.49 0.46 3 0.29

142 0.42 3 0.38 139 0.42 0.40 2 0.14

793 2.36 117 14.74 676 2.06 2.10 7 0.85

12 0.04 1 0.13 11 0.03 0.03 0 0

403 1.20 1 0.13 402 1.22 1.42 3 0.23

3649 10.85 92 11.59 3557 10.83 9.53 92 9.74

Source: Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet

32 | P a g e

be affected by flood. This statistics signifies the fact that profession of more than 96% population of this upazilla are influenced by flood. So flood can affect the economy of this upazilla significantly. As observed in the field and digital map collected through web-based GIS software, most areas of this upazilla is covered either by haors and by beels. Only a part of the northeastern region is covered by tea garden. It means that whole land area of the upazilla is exposed to flood hazar except its north- eastern part. 2.3.4 Population related Vulnerability Population is the most vulnerable component to disasters like flood. It is the people who often pay much in all the cases because all the other components like infrastructure, economy and geography and direct as well as indirect relation with people. In case of Gowainghat as shown in the following table, only 4951 out of 207170 (2.38% ) people live in pucka households. Most of the non-pucka households are made of temporary nature of materials. These households are also situated amidst low a lying land, which stays under water during flood. Flood water with high velocity hits these households from all the four sides creating much damage. These people are poor and literary hand to mouth often losing their living before, during and after flood. Their properties, valuables, livestock etc are often lost during the phenomena. Furthermore, they suffer from communicable diseases during and after floods. People in urban areas are less exposed in comparison to those in rural areas. Locality and types of structures ALL AREA Dwelling Institution Urban Rural

All structures 207170 33635 975 4568 202602

Jhupri 16410 2904 95 145 16265

Kutcha 164051 26954 438 3251 160800

Semi-Pucka 21758 3141 167 808 20950

Table#06: Household- structure wise population in Gowainghat upazilla

Pucka 4951 636 275 364 4587

3

3 Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet

33 | P a g e

Sl

Upazila

Population 0-11 month

#

Male 1

Gowainghat

4,476

Femal e 4,221

12-23 month Male 5,481

Femal e 5,409

2-4 year

Total 5-14 year

15-49 year

Male

Female

Male

Female

Male

Female

13,442

13,692

29,945

28,978

53,562

51,076

50+ year Male 8,998

Female 9,000

Male 115,904

Female 112,376

Total 228,280

Table#07: Agewise and gender wise population of Gowainghat upazilla

34 | P a g e

2.4 Risk Map There are many established techniques to analyse vulnerability of any area. In case of assessing flood risk for Gowainghat upazilla, a map of the upazilla has been prepared using web based GIS software, Google Map, and the same map has been used for analysis of physical risk to flood. As we can see picture#09, Gowainghat upazilla is composed of approximately ten beels, haors, agricultural land and four tea gardens on the high lands. It has Himalayan Mountains of Meghalaya province of India at its north. Hilly upazilla of Sylhet district, Jaintiapur, covers the north-eastern, eastern and part of southern part of the upazilla. Its south is covered by high parts of Sylhet sadar upazilla. Flood prone another upazilla of Sylhet district, Companiganj, is situated at the west and north-western part of the upazilla. Due to having lands with high elevation around all the four parts of the upazilla, flood water approaches to the mass of this upazilla from three directions- north, west and east. Also due to higher elevation, it is not easy for flood water to be drained. And this creates stagnation of water in this upazilla round the year. And for the same reason it is one of the most flood prone upazillas of the country. The map on the previous page is showing the flood status of 2007, and supported the fact, with red color, that water of this upazilla becomes stagnant due to high elevation around it. According to the map on the following page, houses in this upazilla are constructed either on the banks of rivers or in a thin row within vast body of water. Most of this houses, as shown in figure#12 are of temporary type and made of tin/ bamboo on earthen base. Since water enters this area from nearby high hills and mountains, it has high velocity, which is extremely dangerous for household and transportation on water bodies. This invreases damage and interrupts response work during the floods. As shown on the map on figure#19 there is ten strategic location which influences overall flood level of the upazilla. If water levels in these locations are high it creates a huge flood in the upazilla. On the otherhand, if water flow in these locations can be controlled, flood in this upazilla can be controlled.

35 | P a g e

36 | P a g e

Risk Map of Gowainghat upazilla

(Description has been given on the

previous page)

High hills of Meghalaya drains huge amount of water caused by heavy rainfall towards the flood plain

Areas within this box illustrates the fact that roads, vital facilities and residences are situated in small and narrow peices of land, where water with high currect enters from three directions. Due to these

Existence of high hills and land with higher elevation in north, east, west and also part of south part of the upazilla creates obstacles in the drainage of flood water causing stagnation for prolonged periods

Since this area has comparatively lower elevation than neighbouring Companygong, flood water from Sunamganj area and other basin enters to this upazilla

Areas of Jaintiapur, Kanaigt and Sylhet Sadar Upazilla have higher elevation, therefore rain water of Indian north-eastern Meghalay-hills enters Goainghat through this area

37 | P a g e

Chapter# 3.0 Present practices of flood preparedness in the study area

Flood preparedness is composed of five basic steps, which are as follows1. Forecasting 2. Warning 3. Evacuation 4. Flood fighing, and

5. Food stockpiling and medical supplies Present activities in each stage has been briefed as follows3.1 Preparedness related to forecasting: In Bangladesh, Bangladesh Water Development Board and Department of Meteorology are primarily responsible for flood forecasting. Some other departments like those working on water modelling and geographic information system provides valuable support to them.

Chart#03: Flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh

38 | P a g e

As illustrated in diagram present on the previous page, Bangladesh Water Development Board collects data on the water level of different rivers at different strategic locations of the country. These locations has been shown in the figure #19 Beside collecting these data, they also collect data on water in-flow from neighbouring countries. They interpret these data using different types of computer software and analysis techniques. Once realized the possibility of flood, they communicate these messages to concerned authorities for dissemination of warning signals. On the other hand, Bangladesh Department of Meteorology and other departments with similar functions collect data on rainfall in the country as well as neighbouring countries. Besides collecting data at their own, they collected relevant data from neighbouring countries and countries in Asia Pacific region. They use satellite images and other tools to accurately predict Flood. If they assume possibility of flood, they communicate the message to the concerned authority for warning. In most cases they give these messages to Bangladesh Disaster Management Bureau, electronic and new media as well as to the office of the Prime Minister. In case of sub-national level activities, forecasting related activities are generally done at the districts. District level offices of Bangladesh Water Development Board, Bangladesh Disaster Management Bureau, District Administration, Pourashava/ City Corporation administration and media are generally the primary recipient of these messages, and disseminate warning messages to the mass population in a coordinated way. At the forecasting phase there is no special mechasin for Gowainghat upazilla. Everything is being done at the national and district level. In case of this upazilla, there are ten strategic river points in Gowainghat, Chattak and Jaintapur upazilla that are very crucial to assess the possibility and extent of flooding in this upazilla. These strategic points are shown in the figure#19. According to present practices, it takes approximately few hours to convey forecasted messages to the concerned authority, and around 24 hours to send it to the upazilla level. If the upazilla/ district wants to collect/ forecast themselves it takes around three to four days to collected information related to water level and other related information due to use of backdated technology. 3.2 Preparedness related to warning: Media plays a vital role is dissemination of warning messages in Bangladesh, be it national, sub-national and grass-root level. Beside these mobile phone, land telephone, fax, VHF, HF, internet etc are used for the purpose. 39 | P a g e

District level organizatons like office of the Deputy Commissioner, Department of health, Departments related to utility services like electricity, sanitatation etc are informed by national level and district level offices of meteorological department, and disseminate warning messages to upazilla and below level through different channels. Mass media like Bangadesh Betar, Bangladesh Television and newspapers also play a very important role in this regard. Gowainghat upazilla is composed of eight unions and each union is divided into nine administrative wards. Upazilla Nirbahi Officer (UNO) receives warning messages from the district level and communicated to different department at the upazilla level. S/he passes the warning messages to union level through mobile phone, land telephone, VHF radio set and/ or through messenger. After receiving information from the upazilla level, union chairmen passes these warning messages to the ward members, union disaster management committee members and volunteers for miking and door to door message dissemination. They also take preparatory measure to evacuate people to flood shelter and for flood fighting. 3.3 Preparation for evacuation: Presently there is no systematic mechanism for emergency evacuation. There are volunteers at the union and subsequently at ward level with inadequate training and logistic. Affected people are generally responsible for their own evacuation. No plan or arrangement for evacuation of physically and psychologically challenged people, children and livestock. Everything is being done extemporarily. As per the Standing Order for Disaster (SOD), every union, upazila and district should have disaster management plan, and act according during disaster. In most cases this is not materialized due to lack of skilled human resource and institutional inability. At union level, there are volunteers who are specifically designated work for evacuation. There is no specialized flood shelter or cyclone shelter or any type of shelter, which can be used as shelter of evacuee. Primary and high schools, colleges, union parisad buildings (there are eight in Gowainghat upazilla) and high lands are used as flood shelter during floods. 20 institutions are marked as flood shelters to accommodate 207170 people from 274 villages. Four big flood shelters can accommodate on average 1500 people, whereas all other shelters can accommodate approximately 200 people. So, all the flood shelters of this upazilla can accommodate approximately 9200 people during flood.

40 | P a g e

Some evacuation related activities are as follows, which are generally undertaken immediately before floods•

Give short briefing to the volunteers

•

Make coordination with agencies who generally work for evacuation

•

Liaison with water vessels owners’ association and truck-bus owners’ association for their support during evacuation.

•

Coordination with Gram Police and law enforcing agencies for the security of people and their properties during and after evacuation.

•

Coordination with heads of the educational institutions and public representatives so that they can allow people to use their premise as flood shelters.

•

Appeal to rich people in the society so that they can provide support in feeding the evacuated people.

•

Coordination with the health department for supply of ORS and other necessary supplies so that they can be provided to the affected people.

3.4 Preparation for flood fighting: Office of the Upazilla Nirbahi Officer and upazilla level office of the Department of Public health and Engineering play an imporatant role for flood fighting. Upazilla level stores of public health department generally stores sufficient quantity of pipes for raising tubewells, slabs and rings for raising the bases of sanitary latrines and bleaching powders for disinfection of tubewells and sanitation facilities. Water Development Board and Department of Roads (WDB), Power Development Board (PDB) and Department of Road and Highways do not have any representive at the upazilla level, officials from district comes and works with the facilitation of Upazilla Nirbahi Officer. Project Implementaion Officer (PIO) coordinates with all the agencies and union level under the guidance of District Relief and Rehabilitation Officer (DRRO) and Upazilla Nirbari Officer (UNO). Representatives of PWD, WDB, PDB etc works to safe guard roads, facilities related to electricity supplies etc. Agriculture department has representative at the upazilla nd union level plays a crucial role in guiding farmers and general people in taking protective measure to save their crops, livestocks and households. 41 | P a g e

Beside all these, public representives like union parisad chairmen, members, choukidars and volunteers of Bangladesh red crescent go door to door to guide mass people on different protective measures. On top of all, people take measures to fight flood as per their own understanding and experience.

Picture#10: Flood in 2004. Lengura union, Gowainghat 3.5 Preparation related to food stock piling and medical supplies: Department of food is primarily responsible for storing of food for flood. In this connection, they maintain one big warehouse at the district level, which is situated in Sylhet. They also have some other warehouses in strategic locations of the district. Fortunately one of the warehouse for storing of food in situated in Nandirgaon union of the upazilla though its size is inadequate in comparison the population size of the upazilla. Gowainghat Health Complex, the only hospital in the upazilla, has provision of storing medicine and related medical supplies for flood though the principal warehouse is called DRS, which is situauted at the district headquarter in Sylhet. This health complex stores ORS, vaccines, water purification tablets, medicines of skin diseses and different types of water borne diseases. 42 | P a g e

Chapter# 4 Limitations and Challenges of present practices in flood: This report has already discussed different stages of flood preparedness and related activities. This section will focus the limitations and challenges of present practices in flood preparedness, which is mostly human induced and less dependent on technology like GIS. A popular analysis method named Critical Path Method (CPM) has been used to assess the challenges. Information related to this chapter has been collected through discussion with the affected people of Gowainghat, NGO workers and government officials who are working in the same area.

4.1 Limitations of present practices at different stages of flood preparedness Present practices of flood preparedness have many limitations. Some of those are as follows4.1.1 Forecasting: •

• • •

Due to the human dimension in our forecasting mechanism, and less use of cutting age technological equipment, our forecasting is time consuming and less reliable. Due to lack of relevant technology and coordination with neighbouring countries, we are not getting messages within due time. Lack of experts for analysis and interpretation of forecasting signals and messages. Lack of coordinaton between departments responsible for forecasting and dissemination of warning messages.

4.1.2 Warning: • • • • •

Delay in receiving forecast Delay in disseminating warning messages Lack of proper technology in dissemination of warning messages. People often fails to understand the warning messages, and decidide their course of action. Flow for dissemination of warning messages is not same at all level, and reduces lead time for prepation for the flood.

4.1.3 Evacuation: • • • •

There is no specific plan or mechanism for evacuation during flood. Efforts made during the flood are generally inadequate in comparison the population. No arrangement or actin for livestocks. No mechanism to safeguard left properties of the evacuees.

43 | P a g e

•

Importance of evacuation related preparation is often ignored in flood preparedness as well as disaster management related planning. 4.1.4 Flood fighting: • •

Lack of coordination between different agencies. Most of the flood fighting related activities is done by government departments like health, public health, LGED, road and highways etc department. Negligible amount of effort are being given to saveguard people and their properties including crops and livestocks. • Very poor volunter management. Some volunteers has left long time before. No body knows about this. No replacement. No training and logistics. 4.1.5 Food stockpiling and medical supplies: •

• •

Location of the warehouse in Nandirgaon is not strategic. It is located at one corner of the upazilla. Affected areas are far from it, which may create problem in transportation of food during the time of need. The warehouse is not situated in high land as a result there is a possibility that the warehouse may go under water duing flood. As floods come generally after long interval, medicines and drugs purchased after or during one disaster expires before another disaster. People responsibile for maintenance of these stocks seldom checks the expiry dates.

4.2 Challenges at different stages of flood Challenges of present practices can be analyzed using a simple flow chart visualizing critical success factors in each stages of flood preparedness as illustrated through a flow chart on the following page, each stage has some challenges, and success of that stage depends on how the challenges are overcome. The analytical flow chart on the following page has shown all the challenges through a separate dimension titling critical path. Despite having many challenges no point has been shown against the forecasting stage since preparedness begins with forecasting, and all the challenges of later stages are based on the initiative taken at this stage. Disseminating warning messages to mass population and critical people in a way so that they can realize the situation, and know exactly what to do- the challenge is at the warning stage. Due to bureaucracy, lack of accountability and inability of understanding the severity of the hazard, warning messages are not, generally, disseminated on time. This is partly due to use of backward technology. On the other hand it is also important to ensure that managers of vital facilities like those of road and highways, health, electricity, water, public health etc. departments, and those who are maintaining large installations involving a huge number of employees gets the warning message at the early stage so that they can get sufficient time to take action.

44 | P a g e

Evacuation is one of the most challenging part of flood preparedness. There should be a specific plan for evacuation with projected estimate of the areas to be affected with number of population in the coverage area. Accordingly shelter should be prepared with provision for livestock. Security of leftout households should also be considered. Total number of evacuee should be matching with the total capacity of available flood shelters. Success of this stage largely depends on getting forecast on time, and quick estimation of coverage area and population.

Chart#04: Analysis of challenges of present practices using Critical Path Method (CPM)4 Flood fighting is one of the most crucial stages in flood preparedness. Success of this stage depends largely on the correct interpretation of the warning message, and also getting it with sufficient time in hand. Understanding of responsibility is also very crucial. This steps often suffers from the dielemma of who is to do what? Considering that it mind steps should be taken to avoid role conflict during preparation in non-flood time. Service 4 Solve That Problem. Edited by Steve Smith. Published by KOGAN PAGE

45 | P a g e

providers should have clear understanding about their role at this stage, and same way mass communication activities should be undertaken to make people realize their role during this time. Mass population do not have the idea on measure to do to fight flood. Different types of measures should be taken to educate people on this issue much ahead of the flood season so that time is not wasted during or at the beginning of the flood trying to teach them on this issue. Flood stock piling and medical services is a very important step in terms of saving lives. Departments like food, public health and engineering, health etc should have sufficient preparation to provide food and other related support to the population in and outside the flood shelter. Like preparatory activities for evacuation, correct estimate of affected or to be affected area should be prepared, and logistics and supplies should be procured and stored accordingly. It is often seen that stock procured once is not checked later on for expiry as a result these cannot be used during the time, when they are expected to be used. 4.3 Assessment of need for improvement in present practices: Analysis in this section has been done in three perspective- possibility of failure, what to do to reach an ideal situation? and feasibility of using technology. 4.3.1 Analysis from the perspective of failure: As mentioned earlier in this section, the purpose of this analysis is to identify gaps of present system, if these are any, and search for possible causes of those gaps. Again it looked for the root causes. Final outcomes of this analysis are recommendations to overcome present limitations based on the field observations, interviews, newspaper cuttings and own experience of the reporter in the study area. If we look the table#08, we will find that “Evacuation” is the weakest stage of flood preparedness having an RPN rating of 384. Second weakest area is “Warning” with a RPN rating of 250. Present practices of flood preparedness are so far better in flood preparedness. Possibility of system failure is high in “warning” and “Food stock piling and medical services” stage. Severity of failure is high in Forecasting and evacuation stages. As far as recommendation is concerned, use of GIS and mass communication are the best remedies so far. 4.3.2 Analysis from the perspective of ideal situation What needs to be done to achieve an ideal situation in flood preparedness is the central idea of this analysis. As per the chart#05, effective flood preparedness should have three broad objectives namely reducing the damage to the economy, reducing damage to the infrastructure and reducing loss of lives, livestock and properties.

46 | P a g e

In case of reducing damages to the economy, protection agriculture and keeping economic activities operational are two key specific objectives. Use of GIS and computerized database can contribute a lot in fulfilling these objectives. On the other hand, early warning for flood fighting, relocation of economic institutions, finding ways to redirect and drain flood water are crucial for reducing damage to the infrastructure. And GIS can be an answer to all these. Reduction of losses to lives, livestock and properties is dependent on factors like early warning for flood fighting, mass communication for mass awareness, mass education on mass flood preparedness, effective evacuation system, effective management of food and medical supplied before, during and after flood. Mass communication, computerized database and GIS can be contributory in these cases. 4.3.3 Analysis to assess the feasibility of using technology Purpose of this analysis is to identify best mix of people and technology through illustration of four different situations combining people and technology. If we analyse chart#06, we will find four scenarios. In the best possible scenario is the use of technology where most of the activities are fully automated or not dependent on human interactions. On the other hand, the worst possible scenario is the one, which completely manual depending highly on human interactions.

47 | P a g e

Item

Failure mode

Local effects

System effects

Potential causes

Current

Not enough data. Delay in receiving information Delay in every steps of message transmission

Backdated technology. Lack of coordination within departments and neighbouring countries

controls Partial. Not so effective.

Lack of right information at the right time. Not enough time to estimate due to lack of information about areas and population to be affected.

1

Forecasting

Delay in realization of hazard

2

Warning

Delay in message transmission

3

Evacuation

Very few people get support during evacuation. Mostly they evacuate themselves

Lack of planning, estimation ,coordination, logistics and training

4

Flood fighting

Enough actions are not being taken to save lives and properties

Not realizing what to do

5

Food stock piling and medical services

People often suffer due to shortage of food and medical supplies and treatment

Backdated technology. Bureaucracy. Human dependent transmission system. Some critical departments are out of loop.

Low. Human dependent . Time consumin g Very low. Disorgani zed. Lack of coordinati on. Very low.

People are not aware about the measures of flood fighting. Moreover, they suffer from role conflict. Lack of supplies. Lack of plan and initiatives of its Very low Inconvenient implementation. Also lack of location of the detailed information about warehouse. vulnerable area, their population. Lack of estimate, and purchase accordingly. Table#08 : Analysis from the perspective of failure

Recommended action -Use of GIS through satellite -Better digital coordination between departments and neighbouring countries and world organizations -Use of automated messaging system, which can be operational based on satellite data

GIS based software can calculate potential vulnerable areas and make estimate on affected people with logistic requirement, and accordingly send SMS or email to concerned officials or persons. Mass communication activities can be undertaken to aware people on this. Public representative can also play a vital role. GIS data can automatically generate estimate on the logistic requirement for vulnerable people based on data collected through sensors in the river, and satellite data.

48 | P a g e

Chart#5: Analysis from the perspective of an ideal situation

49 | P a g e

Fully Partially Human automated induced computerized warning forecasting forecasting, forecasting system system and manual system. transmission of w Human Sensor Partially Too much based induced automated dependence assessment warning, transmission on and face of water its totransmission of face levels warning message in rivers messages. dissemina Manual assessment Software Partially automated simulated forecasting assessment of potential damage of damage and estimation b GIS data automated Partially based assessment management of food stock and medic GIS data automated Partially based estimate estimation. SMS based guidance on flood fighting Synchronization of GIS server with those in other countrie

R W ir o g n h tg

Chart#6:Analysis of the feasibility of using technology in flood preparedness

50 | P a g e

Chapter# 5: Proposals for improvement and Conclusion: 5.1 Proposals for improvement of flood preparedness: Since flood affects everybody regardless their identity, flood preparedness is the responsibility of everybody. Different types of people have different role to play. Mass population has the major role to play by being more aware on the issue and doing their part. On the other hand administrative and cultural communities as well as the state have certain roles and responsibilities, which no one else can play. Proposals of this report did not aim to distinguish their roles, it has rather tried to identify activities to be done. Some of those are5.1.1 Activities for reduction of homestead related vulnerabilities: • Advance plan for prevention of flood related risks • Selection and training of appropriate volunteers at the community level • Formation and training of community search and rescue team • Establishment of village level information and warning system • Organize mass education campaign for awareness on flood related issues • Ensure immunization and vitamin –A coverage in flood prone area • Make raised platforms in houses • Avoid mud-walls while building houses • Surround the houses and homestead with strongly rooted trees and plants to prevent/ reduce effect of flood • Ensure stock of ORS, bleaching powder, water purification tablets, alum, vitamin A capsules and other essential medicine for simple treatment at community level or village. • Stock dry food • Protect drinking water sources • Train women and family members on the treatment of contaminated water 5.1.2 Activities for reduction of agriculture related vulnerabilities: • Protect embankments • Keep water drainage system better • Keep seeds in a safe place • Plant seedlings in highest possible grounds • Acquire storage container for keeping seeds • Acquire late verities of rice • Store enough rice for two replanting of rice • Have equipment to remove engines and pumps, and take to a safe place • Leave rice un-husked in paddy form • Planting of flood resistant/ deep water crops. • Stockpiling of fertilizer to use as soon as the flood goes down. • Consider use of different possible cropping patters which will avoid crop damage at floods. • Keep seeds in water tight container • Save engine and water pump by removing it to a safe place and cover the well casing to stop entering of silt 51 | P a g e

•

Prepare soil, collect polythene bags for seedlings, prepare floating or hanging seed beds

5.1.3 Activities for reduction of livestock related vulnerabilities: • Make certain that high ground is found or is built of raised earth where the animals can be taken in floods • Learn how to recognize and treat diseases which cattles’ may get during flood. Store related medicine. • Convince the veterinary specialist in the area to make special arrangements to visit animals during the flood. • Sale, if possible, animals before the flood season to get better price and minimize losses. • Encourage villagers to produce and stock pile sufficient animal fodder • Train village volunteers in poultry and livestock vaccination and vaccinate every animal regularly. • Ensure materials for vaccination • Make portable cages for poultry • Encourage duck rearing • If deep flood apprehended, attempt to move animals to higher ground as soon as possible • Build temporary flood shelter for animals • Assemble a stock of animal foods and grass • Assemble medicine for animals • Arrange floating fodder 5.1.4 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of homesteads: • Move to high ground • Take special precaution to assist children, women and elderly persons. Prevent children from swimming. • Ensure safe drinking water for all the members of the family • Turn electric switches off • Keep carbolic acid to avoid snake biting • Raise tube-wells and opening of ring-wells • Use water purification tablets or boil water before drinking • Arrange early detection , prevention and treatment of water related diseases • Keep sufficient stock of ORS • Immediate take children/ babies to nearby health service providing outlets in case of their breathing problem • Assist sick and injured people • Maintain education campaign on breast feeding, sanitation and personal hygiene- especially hand washing • Ensure sanitation facilities like latrines • Ensure food for pregnant, lactating mothers and under five children • Cut banana trees and bamboos and use them as rafts for emergency evacuation

52 | P a g e

5.1.5 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of agriculture: • Survey the level of the water as frequently as possible • Carry seeds to relatively higher ground • Leave a family member to guard properties, house, fields etc without exposing themselves to any threat • Raise seedlings of rice in small pots at high densities, and raise vegetable seedlings in floating seed beds or polythene bags • Arrange agricultural credit with the local banks/ NGOs to replant crops. 5.1.6 Activities to reduce vulnerabilities of livestock: • Ensure safe water and safe place for grazing • Poultry can be evacuated greater distance if floodwaters continues to raise • Check the animals for water borne diseases • Isolate the animals with contagious diseases from other animals • Contact the livestock department • Feed stock on floating vegetation. • Keep animals on mounds of water hyacinth and banana steps- wet but high 5.1.7 Integration of GIS Technology A GIS based server can operate at the district level, which will be connected to the main server at the national level. Other end of this server will be connected with sensors in ten strategic location of Gowainghat upazilla and some part of Jaintiapur, Sylhet Sadar and Chattak upazilla as shown in figure# 19. This server will have detailed digital map incorporating data like –

Elevation of each of 72 wards (1 upazilla X 8 union X9 wards)

–

Detailed demographic information with statistics on women, children, elderly and physically challenged people.

–

Agricultural data including number of livestock.

–

Location of houses, roads, ponds, rivers etc.

Based on the data collected from other countries through the central database at Dhaka, and water level of the rivers collected from 10 sensors points, GIS software will be able to analyze which area is going to be affected at what extent. Accordingly the GIS server will broadcast SMS through mobile to different agencies, line ministries, public representative the volunteers and others at the upazilla and union level with the possibilities covering suggested course of action. This server will also be able to generate

53 | P a g e

a prescription for flood fighting, evacuation and estimate for stock piling and emergency medicine.

Though estimation of overall cost for this initiative is beyond scope of this report, it can be safely said that it will be much cost effective in comparison to the benefit it may generate reducing losses to the economy, infrastructure, people and their properties. 5.2 Conclusion GIS is a very popular technology for the management of disaster. It can also be used for flood preparedness. Different countries of the world including Costa Rica, West Indies, India (on experiment), Guatemala, Netherlands etc are using it successfully. Bangladesh is a poor country and densely populated. Even minor a hazard can create a major disaster anytime. This country do not have the capacity to afford the losses caused by disasters, floods in most cases, that is why it is more reasonable for the people and policy makers of the country to invest more on preparedness so that risk can be reduced beforehand. There are many challenges and limitations in present practices of flood preparedness. If GIS technology can be used for this purpose, many of the present limitations can be eliminated resulting reduced damage to the people, their properties, infrastructure and economy as whole.

54 | P a g e

Chapter#6: References 1

Ideal locationfor£ood shelter: a geographic information systemapproach J. Sanyal1 and X.X. Lu2 1 Department of Geography, Taki Government College, Taki, West Bengal, India 2 Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore 2 Realtime web-based remote sensing and GIS for flood management jointly done by ministry of planning, Khulna University and Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. 3 GIS Technology for Disaster and Emergency Management: by Russ Johnson. Published by ESRI 4 Challenges for GIS in Emergency preparedness and Response. Published by ESRI. 5 Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic West Bengal, India 6

Low-cost remote sensing and GIS for regional disaster risk reduction, North West Costa Rica by Naomi Morris

7

GIS as a tool in emergency management process by Leonid V. Stoimenov, Member, IAENG, Aleksandar Lj. Milosavljević, and Aleksandar S. Stanimirović

8

GIS based natural disaster mapping: A case study by O. Avsar a,*, Z. Duran a, D. Z. Seker a, M. Hisir a, M. Shrestha b

9

Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic West Bengal, India, Joy Sanyal and Xi Xi Lu, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore

10 Tools for Success: A Managers’ Guide by Dr. Sussane Turner 11 Solve That Problem by edited by Steve Smith 12 Population Census- 2001, Zilla Series, Zilla: Sylhet 13 Population Census- 2001, Community Series, Zilla: Sylhet

55 | P a g e