Five of the Best

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FIVE of the BEST

Contents Introduction ...................................................................................... 1 How to Accumulate Your Way To 100/1 Returns.............. 2

A FREE tipping Service making 565 Points Profit per year... bring it on (and there’s more)............................... 7 Fancy Winning 14 Out of Every 15 Bets? Here’s How........................................................................................11

The Each-Way Steal: How to Profit From Bets the Bookies Hate............................................................................17 Football Betting Strategies: Boost Your Bank by Betting at Half Time!!...................................................................29

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FIVE of the BEST

Introduction I know how frustrating it can be that all the best systems seem to cost a fortune just when you don’t have the cash to try them out. That’s why you’ll find here my favourite blueprints that are absolutely free of charge.

If you are new to betting (or even if you aren’t) some of the blueprints can seem a little daunting so to accompany them I’ve done a video for each. I really hope they make everything clearer and I’d love to hear how you get on with them. You can access the videos here:

http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/payback-videos

And you can contact me at: [email protected] All the best

Clive Keeling Editor, What Really Wins Money

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FIVE of the BEST

How to Accumulate Your Way To 100/1 Returns... By regular What Really Wins Money contributor – The Patriarch Just imagine bagging a 100/1 winning accumulator! This article will show you how. But before we begin, answer me this question.

Would you be fairly confident about being able to pick two winners at around 6/4?

And how about finding the winner if you were backing two in the race, both around 3/1?

If that doesn’t sound too impossible then we are in business for my 100/1 idea. I find it quite surprising, without doing the calculations, that four winners at 6/4, 6/4, 3/1 and 3/1 (by no means huge prices), give an accumulated dividend of exactly 99-1, near enough to our 100/1 target.

Before looking at selection strategies, here’s how we would write out the bet at the bookies. The selections can be in any order but I’ll give an example with the single horses winning their races.. First race – horse A at 6/4 (approx). Second race – horse B at 6/4 (approx). Third race – horses C and D at 3/1 (approx). Fourth race – horses E and F at 3/1 (approx). © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST Perm 1 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 4 one point win accumulators.

The point can be any stake you wish, but obviously even at a £1 stake you are getting a return of around £100, depending on the accuracy of the betting forecast.

So even with a success rate of only 1 in 10, 15 or eve 1 in 20 bets , you are still making a good profit. Here’s another angle to the idea Your four races don’t all have to take place on the same day. You can spread them over different days’ racing whenever a suitable race appears. In this case the staking is a little different.

We’ll assume your four races are taking place on four different days, starting with a single selection at 6/4. This time you stake your four points on it.

If it wins you put the total winnings of 10 points on the second 6/4 selection. It wins too and your return now is 25 points.

For your third race with two selections at 3-1 you split the 25 points, putting half on each. One of them wins so we now have 50 points. Again we split our returns putting 25 points on each of the final 3/1 selections. One of them wins so we now have our return of 100 points.

If only it were always as simple and straightforward as that, but at least it demonstrates how to operate the staking over © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST different days. My suggested prices too are just a guide. You don’t have to stick exactly to 6/4 and 3/1 but I would try not to stray too far from these prices. How to make your selections using price gapping Here’s some pointers on making your selections.

Firstly, let’s look at the single selections at 6/4 (approx).

1. Use The Racing Post betting forecast. 2. Look at non-handicap races with eight runners or less. Don’t use amateur riders races or selling races. 3. Favourite must be 11-8, 6-4 or 13-8. 4. That favourite becomes a selection only if the next horse in the betting is forecast at 7-2 or bigger. For the two horses per race we have slightly different rules.

1. Use The Racing Post betting forecast. 2. Look at all races with 10 runners or less. 3. Favourite must be 5-2 or bigger. 4. Our two selections must be 11-4, 3-1, 10-3 or 7-2. Both must come from these prices. 5. These become selections only if the next in the betting is forecast at 5-1 or bigger. All we want now is one of these accas to come in, and it’s party time!

Editor, Clive Keeling’s Note: Plenty to chew over there from the Patriarch, a regular monthly contributor to What Really Wins Money, and from my perspective, there is no need to limit yourself to horse racing. Perhaps you’ve found © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST a 6/4 equivalent price in the over/under 2.5 goals market, the corners market perhaps, even the match odds market in the Football markets. Perhaps you can create a 6/4 equivalent return in the horse racing place-only market on Betfair?

Think laterally here. I am sure that you can construct these types of accumulators the Patriarch mentions if you broaden your net and look at less conventional markets as well as traditional horse racing. And here’s a National Hunt( N.H.) system.

There will be no 100/1 prices with this old N.H. system, but I reckon it will provide quite a few winners. Running from November through until the end of May, it’s called “Winter And Spring”, comes in three sections and suggests either The Racing Post or Sporting Life for their betting forecasts.

Although the Sporting Life Newspaper is no longer with us, their betting forecast is still available on the internet at www.sportinglife.com. Personally, I’d go for The Racing Post as it is more readily available. The Racing Post is available online at www.racingpost.com. Part One: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May. 1. Type of race: all Handicap Chases. 2. Any course and distance winner with the following form figures which must both come from the current season. 01, 02, 03, 04 and 11. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST 3. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, then select the one at the shortest price in the betting forecast. Part Two: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May. 1. Type of race: Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases with 14 or less runners. 2. Any horse which has won its last two races in the current season. 3. Must be first or second in the betting forecast. 4. No bet if forecast at odds-on. Part Three: Operate from the end of the Flat Season in November until the end of May. 1. Type of race: all non-handicap races. 2. A selection is any horse which was a beaten favourite last time out and is now the forecast favourite for this race. 3. Do not bet on any horse that qualifies if it is having its first run of the current season. We’ve had great feedback on this strategy, so do let us know how you get on.

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FIVE of the BEST

A FREE tipping Service making 565 Points Profit per year... bring it on (and there’s more) Another contribution by The Patriarch I quite understand that tipsters need to charge for their services, of course they do but every so often someone doesn’t – and who are we to argue! Here are a few free gems I’ve unearthed. First up +302 points profit for 2011. No, it’s not from a tipping service that will charge you a few thousand quid for such a return, nor is it from my new wonder system that I’ll be putting on the market for a similar sum! The good news is that the service is absolutely free and available to anyone with access to a computer.

No doubt many of you will be aware of it already, but for those who haven’t yet come across it then perhaps you should take a look now.

The Internet site is www.attheraces.com (abbreviated to ATR). Go there, and amongst a host of features (some of which I’ll come back to later) you’ll find their main tipster called Hugh Taylor – the direct link is:   http://tinyurl.com/6klwv2m

I must make it clear that I have no vested interest in promoting this site, or Mr. Taylor, just a desire to pass on something that is free to everyone, and on past performance is well worth your consideration. Hugh Taylor started his tipping there in March 2009. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST Every month showed a profit till February 2010 when he finally became human and had some losses. Despite some more losing months every year has been profitable.

All the results can be checked on the site, and you’ll see that some months made around 100 points while the average is just under 50. He tips on average around two or three horses a day with stakes of 1 to 5 points depending on his idea of the strength of the bet. Sometimes he backs each way. He usually goes for horses in the middle to bigger price range so you can expect losing runs, but the consistency of his biggish-priced winners seems to take care of these losers. It’s just an idea, but you might consider waiting for some losers and then start a sequence of his bets with perhaps a staking plan where you have a modest increase of stakes until a winner appears.

302 points profit for the year is a pretty amazing achievement, and I only wish I could be confident enough to expect it to continue. I hope it does, but one has to be realistic too. And how about free Speed Ratings? For anyone interested in Speed Ratings www.attheraces. com offers an excellent feature dealing with these. It’s the work of Lawrence Taylor (any relation to Hugh?) and he concentrates on six races per day, although he gives ratings for all the others. In these six races he not only gives the bare ratings for the top four in the race but a © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST full commentary with details of where they ran, and how, their best rating, their last time out rating and also ratings from previous races. He then comes up with a election for the race. From these six selections he then gives his Nap for the day, plus his Next Best. For speed aficionados I’d recommend a close look at the Nap and the Next Best for the day.

There really is a wealth of information at www.attheraces. com (and I use the word “wealth” deliberately for obvious reasons), and I’ll just mention one or two other features that I’ve found to be very useful. There’s an excellent Draw Guide which analyses the effect of the draw on all our British and Irish courses.

The author is a very well-respected expert in that particular area, and his advice on draw effect can make all the difference to a bet. Then there are the Stable Tours. Over 50 of our top trainers, both flat and NH, give a full and detailed appraisal of their most interesting runners and, where possible, the running plans they have for them in the near future. This really is inside information for possible bets. The return of steamers and drifters.

And, wait for it, next we have Steamers and Drifters. Under the heading of Market Movers on www.AtTheRaces.com they list the Top 10 Steamers and the Top 10 Drifters of the day. At ATR the information is given in this form. The first column shows the Last Price. The next one the first Show price. The next is the % movement and the final one is the © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST ATR Index.

A little explanation is required here.

The “Last price” shown is the last recorded price before races enter the “Live show” stage when odds tend to fluctuate more erratically. While this gives stability to the figures I’m not sure yet whether they will be more, or less accurate than the fluctuating figures in the “Live show” stage. The top steamer today as I’m writing is last priced at 4-1. The first Show price is 8-1, so the next column showing % Movement is 50%.

The ATR Index figure is 809. This figure is arrived at, apparently, by a range of factors. There is the market share for the horse, the change in the market share and the number of bookmakers offering odds on the horse. The higher the Index figure the better. The next highest Index figure today is, incidentally, only 317. These Index figures are also displayed in Graph form which may be simpler for some people to assimilate, and for the Drifters exactly the same process is employed. There is, however, one big difference.

The Steamers’ Graph swings to the left in green and the Drifters’ one goes to the right in red.

The conundrum, though, remains. Every day we see, contrary to our expectations, steamers that lose and drifters that win. To solve that puzzle really would be something.

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FIVE of the BEST

Fancy Winning 14 Out of Every 15 Bets? Here’s How... In your monthly issue of What Really Wins Money you will regularly find some great systems that our experts have uncovered. This one by betting system creator, Tony Gibson has had great feedback so give it a go and do let me know how it works for you. Over to Tony. I’ve devised this system so that you only ever lose a bet if the match finishes a 0-0 draw. Now on average 1 in 12 matches finish 0-0 (already good odds) but there is a way to lengthen those odds even further if you know what you’re doing!

You see because you get to choose which matches to bet on, you can decide which games you think are more likely to involve at least one goal. If you don’t know much about football, don’t worry, you don’t need to. To decide which matches you bet on you can check the Football league tables at websites such as www. soccerstats.com or www.soccerway.com, the tables show you how many goals each team has scored and let in, and just stay clear of any teams with low numbers in both.

Just using this method will lower the chance of the matches you choose finishing 0-0 from 12-1 to at least 15-1 (14 from 15 winning bets).

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FIVE of the BEST So how much can you win? Obviously, the amount you win depends on the amount you bet. I have used this system myself for the past two years, and my win rate has been 16 out of 17, my average win amount has been £48.76 per bet, and my average loss amount has been £240.00 per bet. So from an average of 17 bets I have won £780.16 (48.76 x 16) and I have lost 240.00 (240.00 x1). £780.16 – £240 = £540.16 or £31.77 per bet.

And, of course, you can double your stake amount and win twice as much. Your minimum stake amount you can bet is just £2 per match, so if you want to start off small and build it up, like I did, you can too.

So what do I need to start? All you need to use this system is Internet access, and a betting account with www.betfair.com. Typical betting on a football match would look something like this: Arsenal 1.82 1.84 Man Utd 3.95 4.00 Draw 3.30 3.35

The numbers on the left are the odds for backing the outcome. The numbers on the right are the odds for laying the outcome.

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FIVE of the BEST Now let’s explain The System On Betfair the odds are changing all the time, although unlike horse racing, with football betting odds before the kickoff, you will not see very much change. That is until the kick-off, you see on every live match you can bet “in running”, which means while the match is being played.

Being able to lay outcomes as well as back, and being able to bet ‘in running’ are both key factors to our system. Getting underway We have chosen our match we feel will not finish 0-0.

First of all, we must LAY THE DRAW before the match kicks off.

Say you have laid the draw to £100 @ 3.4, you would be liable to lose £240 if it finishes a draw, or £100 if either team win.

In this case the match starts off slow as many tend to do. With Newcastle having the best of it, they reap the rewards of their efforts in the 61st minute, the odds will now quickly change: Newcastle 1.26 1.28 Middlesboro 14.00 15.00 Draw 6.40 6.60

OK, you are now ready to execute the system. You stand to lose £240 if Middlesboro equalise, but if you now back the draw @ 6.4 just enough to cover your losses if the game © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST does finish a draw, then you will end up with a very nice free bet. To work out what you need to do exactly to cover your losses you must use this simple equation:

Your liability divided by back odds (-1) = Stake amount or, £240 divided by 5.4 (6.4 -1) = £44.44

So if you now back the draw at the odds of 6.4 with a stake of 44.44, you will be in this position: Newc win = £55.55 (£100 – £44.44) Midd win = £55.55 (£100 – £44.44) Draw = £0.00

OK At this stage you are not risking losing anything, you can only gain £55.55 if Newcastle or Middlesboro win, and with the odds now 1.26 for Newcastle to win, your chances become very high.

So the job is done, sit back, relax and wait for the final whistle to blow. Your account will be credited with your winnings 10 minutes after the match has finished. Every match will be different, there are a number of factors involved which affect the odds for the draw which include: 1/ The time of the first goal. This is the main factor; the later the first goal is scored the better for us. Occasionally, you may choose a match where the first goal comes within 15 minutes, and therefore the odds for the draw will go up only slightly, when this happens you should still take the © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST FREE BET there and then, although it may mean smaller winnings you still have a free bet on a leading team. In other matches, however, where the first goal is scored towards the end, your risk-free profit can be as high as £90 and with only a few minutes remaining almost certain winnings. 2/ The team that scores the first goal. You want the favourite team to be the one to score first for maximum profit. 3/ How the match is looking. You want the team who has most deserved to score, to go on and score the first goal; this will make the chance of a draw to be a much bigger price. So for the best result you want:

The first goal to be scored by the favourite team who have played like they deserve to be in front during the second half, there is a lot more chance of this scenario than the other way around. This makes everything on your side and why this system is so successful.

It is important to know when the first goal has been scored so that you can take your free bet before the team who are now behind have a chance to equalise. The best way of doing this is to watch the match live on SKY TV. You can of course listen to matches covered on radio or watch teletext. There are Internet sites which also give live updates on matches.

You will of course have losing matches but the more form you can apply to your picks, the less chance you will have of © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST losing.

Longest winning runs have been 47 and losing runs only two. The worst losing month I ever had was four losing matches from 25.

Note from WRMM editor Clive Keeling: Tony revisits the lay the draw theory and I would concur with him that the better your research, the better able you are to ensure that the correct team scores first.

Mentioned elsewhere, www.soccerstats.com and www. betdevil.com are my two websites to use for research. www. futbol.com is the website I use to keep track of score lines.

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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The Each-Way Steal: How to Profit From Bets the Bookies Hate By the Statman The Statman is a regular contributor to the monthly newsletters and his speciality? Stats of course. He has an uncanny knack of uncovering statistics from the past 10 years which we can profit from in the future. In this article the Statman focuses on a favourite bet of mine, the Each Way bet. Over to the Statman. The each-way bet is one of those types of bets that the bookies hate. Why do they hate it? Because the odds are stacked in the punter’s favour!

By applying some statistical analysis to the each-way bet we can start to see some clear angles and advantages that will have the bookies running scared. The best place to start is to fully understand the each-way bet and rules that the bookies and exchanges apply to them. The rules as applied by the bookies to each-way bets are different to those that are applied by the betting exchanges.

The bookies each-way bet The each-way bet is effectively two bets in one which is why a £5 each-way bet costs £10, that’s two £5 bets. The first bet is a straight win bet and pays out if the horse wins. The second bet is on the horse being placed, and the number of places is directly related to the number of runners in the race. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST However, because the chances of the horse being placed are higher than the chance of the horse winning, the bookies will only pay out a fraction of the starting price. This is dependent upon whether the race is a handicap or nonhandicap race and also the number of runners. This sounds quite complicated but the rules are summarised here: • Win only, no each-way bets available on races with 4 or less runners • 1/4 of the odds on the first two places for races with 5 to 7 runners • 1/5 of the odds on the first three places for non-handicap races of 8 or more runners • 1/5 of the odds on the first three places for handicap races with 8 to 11 runners • 1/4 of the odds on the first three places for handicap races with 12 to 15 runners • 1/4 of the odds on the first four places for handicap races with 16 or more runners

It is important to note that the number of runners are those that go to post and not the number of runners declared.

So if there are 8 declared runners but only 7 go to post, because 1 runner is withdrawn, then the rule that applies to the each-way bet will change, from 1/5 of the odds for the first three places to 1/4 of the odds to two places. So you have to be aware of this as it could have a big effect on the outcome of the race as regards the each-way bet. The exchanges each-way bet On the betting exchanges (such as www.betfair.com), the © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST two parts of the each-way bet have to be placed separately. There are several advantages to this.

Firstly, you do not have to place the same amount on the win portion as on the place portion, which means that the potential profit can be adjusted according to the prices on offer.

Secondly, you don’t have to place the win portion of the bet, which again means that you can maximise profits, particularly if your selections get placed more often than they win. Unlike the bookies there are no fractions of the odds on the place bets, the prices are as offered on the exchange. These are the number of places offered on place bets on the exchanges: • No place market for races with 3 or less runners • First two places for races with 4 to 7 runners • First three places for races with 8 to 15 runners • First three places for non-handicap races with 16 or more runners • First four places for handicap races with 16 or more runners.

Unlike the bookies, the number of runners are the number of declared runners and not the number of runners that go to post, so a horse being withdrawn does not affect the number of places offered in the market, unless the number of non-runners reduces the number of runners to 2 when the place market is withdrawn and all bets are refunded. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST Which races to bet on Runners Number of Probability of winning of being places being placed 4 2 50% 5 2 40% 6 2 33% 7 2 29% 8 3 38% 9 3 33% 10 3 30% 11 3 27% 12 3 25% 13 3 23% 14 3 21% 15 3 20% 16 4 25% 17 4 24% 18 4 22%

If we select at random any horse from a race, what are the chances of picking a horse that is going to be placed? Which races have the odds stacked in our favour?

As we can see from the table, picking any horse at random from a 5-runner race gives us a 40% chance of picking a horse that is going to finish in the top two. Not bad odds to start off with.

Bear in mind that there is only a place market for 4-runner races on the betting exchanges; bookies will not offer eachway bets on 4-runner races. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST The races that offer the best odds of randomly picking a horse that will place is in the favour of the punter in 4–6 and 8–9-runner races so these will be the races that we’ll concentrate on.

As I have already said, the bookies only pay out on a fraction of the starting price odds (or the early prices) and the betting exchanges have the prices set by the layers. My research has shown that the prices for the place bets on the exchanges do closely mirror the fractions of the win market prices as set out in the bookies each-way terms. This isn’t always the case but it’s close enough to use the bookies terms when calculating the return for a horse being placed on the exchanges. The return for a place The place part of the each-way bet only pays out a fraction of the odds, and if the horse is only placed then the win part becomes a losing bet. We then have to be mindful of the odds that we back each way at. The table below shows us the profit for a 1-point each-way bet (costing 2 points), showing both win and place profits. Odds 1/4 Odds 1/5 Odds Win Place Win Place 1/1(evens) 1.25 -0.75 1.2 -0.8 2/1 2.5 -0.5 2.4 -0.6 3/1 3.75 -0.25 3.6 -0.4 4/1 5 0 4.8 -0.2 5/1 6.25 0.25 6 0 6/1 7.5 0.5 7.2 0.2 7/1 8.75 0.75 8.4 0.4 8/1 10 1 9.6 0.6 © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST 9/1 11.25 1.25 10.8 0.8 10/1 12.5 1.5 12 1 11/1 13.75 1.75 13.2 1.2 12/1 15 2 14.4 1.4

We see that any price below 4/1 for 4–6 runner races (where the odds fraction for the place payout is 1/4) or 5/1 for 8–9 runner races, is really not going to be a cost-effective bet because even if the horse does get placed we still make a loss. So we now know which races we are interested in and the minimum odds that we will consider when placing our each-way bet. Next we need to turn to the statistics to see if we can get an edge in this market. How the stats can give you the each-way edge So we are looking for horses in 4–6 runner races with odds of 4/1 or greater and 8–9 runner races with odds of 5/1 or greater. Logic tells us that we are not to back the outside favourites in these races, although if they do get placed or even win then the returns could be handsome. The strike rate though is very low, resulting in long-term loss and long losing runs. With that in mind we want to be focusing on the first three in the betting market. What, then, are the winning and place strike rates for the first 3 in the betting market that meet the odds requirements for the races in question? © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST The winning and place strike rates for the first 3 in the betting market that meet the odds requirements for the races in question No 1st 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd 3rd of Fav Fav Fav Fav Fav Fav Runners Win Place Win Place Win Place

4 16% 49% 12% 37% 5 15% 49% 12% 35% 6 17% 33% 17% 44% 14% 33% 8 17% 50% 17% 51% 14% 47% 9 19% 51% 15% 47% 14% 45%

This shows us the horses we are interested in that are going to give us the best possible return for our money, i.e. those where almost half of all selections will be placed. Remember, because we are backing at odds of 4/1 or 5/1 or greater, then of those selections that get placed we will be making a profit or at very worse breaking even. The next step is to look at these horses and try and gauge how profitable they are going to be. This throws up an interesting point: In 8–9 runner races it is quite possible that we could be in a position where we are backing 2 or 3 horses in the same race.

Here are the profits using the bookies terms, so that includes win and place bets, each bet is 1 point each-way with a total cost of 2 points. No 1st 2nd 3rd of Runners Favourite Favourite Favourite 4 23.88 5 37.63 © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST 6 35.75 8 -10 -118 -475.2 9 -2 -359.6 -716 We are indeed on the right track.

Already we are showing a profit by blindly backing all second favourites each-way in 4, 5 and 6-runner races where the odds are 4/1 or greater. The 8 and 9-runner races however look as though some form of filtering will have to be applied in order to turn a profit. Before looking at filtering the races to improve profitability I just want to show you the same results if the betting exchanges are used and ONLY betting in the place market.

Here, then, the win market is going to be ignored. This is a great advantage that exchanges such as www.betfair.com offer. No of 1st 2nd 3rd Runners Favourite Favourite Favourite 4 31.88 5 76.63 6 -7.25 8 -3 56 35.8 9 -11 -79.1 -214

We can see here, that by using just the place- only market on the exchanges improves the profitability. However, these figures are only estimated based on the recorded starting price of each selection and NOT on the actual prices from the exchange place market. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST The filters and the loophole There are basically two principles to use when looking at filters; the first is to look for some advantage that our selection may have over its rivals that will increase the win or place strike rate and increase profits. Some elements of form analysis are the obvious route here; however, that can complicate things and can also mean that considerable extra work needs to be done in order to find the horses that qualify. Another method of spotting when a horse has an advantage over its rivals is by using the prices in the live markets.

For our Each-Way Steal, we would want a second favourite that has, say, half the odds of the third favourite or a third favourite with half the odds of the fourth favourite. When our selection has half the odds of its next closest rival, we could assume that it has twice the chance of winning, and twice the chance of being placed. But again, this does require following the live market as well as an extra time commitment. The second principle that I use when filtering selections is to select races where the odds of our selections are artificially high.

What I mean here is that the odds being offered by the bookies are higher than the odds of the horse winning or placing. In this scenario our selection would be a value bet and in the long term would produce far better profits.

This second principle is the one that I’m going to focus on primarily because it also exploits a loophole in the eachway bet. This loophole is based around the way the starting © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST prices, and live prices offered by the bookies are calculated. The starting prices are calculated principally using the amount of money bet on each horse in the WIN market, the odds for the place market are a fraction of the odds for the win market, with the obvious exception of the betting exchanges.

When the race has a short-priced favourite, at even money or shorter, the market and the money is saying that this horse is going to win the race, and because the chances of it winning are very high and rightly so at such short prices, it pushes the prices of the other horses out. That has the effect of increasing the prices of the second and third favourites by as much as 10%, more in some cases. However, because we are backing each-way we don’t need our horse to win to make a profit – we only need it to place. Because the place price is based on the win market we have a situation where we have far higher prices in the place market than warranted and thus an excellent value in the each-way bet.

Selecting only those races where the favourite is evens or shorter (if you are using betting exchanges such as www. betfair.com, then evens is represented as 2.00) produces the following profits (again these are 1 point each-way bets costing a total of 2 points).

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FIVE of the BEST No of 2nd 3rd Runners Favourite Favourite 4 27.125 5 33.875 6 142.625 8 -2.2 179.8 9 -116.5 -69.5

Notice here we can no longer back any favourites as they are all now too short a price to back each-way. You can see that by concentrating on races that have short-priced favourite gives us a definite advantage with the each-way bet against the high street bookie.

This is even more pronounced if you look at just placing the bet on the exchanges in the place market only. These bets are just 1 point to place.

These figures are approximations based on the starting prices and are not based on the actual prices in the place market on the exchanges. No of 2nd 3rd Runners Favourite Favourite 4 31.125 5 79.875 6 83.625 8 104.8 235.3 9 13 129.5

The final step is to check that we can secure a long-term profit from The Each-Way Steal. © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST The table below shows the break down by year for our selections based on starting prices and 1 point each-way bets. Number of Runners Year 4 5 6 8 9 Total

2000 1.75 24.875 2.875 -45.3 -6.8 -22.60 2001 48.5 -12.875 21.125 18.8 -19.3 56.25 2002 -26.5 8.625 -13 14.9 -50.4 -66.38 2003 0 33.75 46.25 3.9 -51 32.90 2004 -5 7.75 31.875 57.3 -35.7 56.23 2005 8.25 14.625 15.875 60.5 51.2 150.45 2006 7.875 -6.5 -0.375 5.8 38.4 45.20 2007 -17.5 15.625 -9.125 32.5 -29.7 -8.20 2008 13.25 -27.875 16 -46.4 -50.5 -95.53 -7.75 -8.375 7.375 35.5 0.6 27.35 2009 2010 4.25 -15.75 23.75 40.1 -32.8 19.55

Finally, for those that are interested in the place markets on the betting exchanges, here is a comparison for place bets only. Number of Runners Year 4 5 6 8 9 Total 2000 -2.75 14.38 -1.63 -2.30 18.20 25.90 2001 12.50 5.13 14.63 25.80 14.20 72.25 2002 -6.50 -4.38 6.50 32.90 8.10 36.63 2003 9.00 26.75 7.25 30.90 7.00 80.90 2004 1.50 13.25 14.38 60.80 5.80 95.73 2005 10.25 5.13 7.88 36.50 36.20 95.95 2006 8.38 0.00 11.63 12.80 48.40 81.20 2007 -6.50 1.13 -0.13 33.50 -10.70 17.30 2008 2.75 9.13 -1.00 25.60 10.50 46.98 2009 2.25 5.63 23.38 55.00 3.60 89.85 2010 0.25 3.75 0.75 28.60 1.20 34.55 © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST Football Betting Strategies:

Boost Your Bank by Betting at Half Time!! You’ve all heard the cliché “It’s a game of 2 halves”, well now you can exploit this fact for profit!

Start betting in the 2nd half of certain matches! Treat the 2nd half as a match in and of itself.

The first half, therefore, becomes the launch pad for your betting decisions.

Let me explain what I mean by way of 2 very good examples. Cast your mind back to the 15th August 2011, and a match between Manchester City and Swansea City... Manchester City are rightly clear favourites, but let’s see what the score is at half-time: 0-0

This is a big surprise. Now if your research had told you that Manchester City are likely winners, and there are likely to be goals in this match too – and if you had confidence in that research, why not enter the betting markets at halftime? (And to be fair, if you had been watching this match you’d have found the difference in class between the two teams glaringly obvious.) The benefits are clear.

If you fancied Manchester City to win, you would be getting better odds at half-time in in-play markets such as those at © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST www.bet365.com and on betting exchanges like www.betfair.com. Why are the odds on Manchester City bigger than they were pre match? Quite simply because in-play markets react to occurrences (or in this case, non-occurrences).

Further, there are a multitude of other markets that will be offering bigger odds (than pre match). Such markets include the over/under 2.5 goals markets, and for layers, how about laying the 0-0 at odds far better than pre match? (layers like to see low odds, backers like to see high odds.) The ideal scoreline to exploit at half-time is the 0-0 but as you will see with other examples later in the article, we can be flexible. Let’s look at a few examples of 2nd half betting. EXAMPLE 1 8:00 FT Braga 3 : 2 Gil Vicente MC Nuno Gomes 61’ Helder Barbosa 72’ 89’ Claudio Nuno Gomes 90’

In this Portuguese league match, Braga are 1.52 favourites against newly-promoted Gil Vicente. Braga scored 2 goals against the bottom 6 sides at home last season. Gil Vicente conceded 2 goals against Braga and 3 against Porto (2 sides in the top 3 last season, with Braga 4th last season). The 0-0 at half-time was therefore a shock... and, inevitably, in the second half the goals arrived. Possible profit-making areas? – Match odds – back Braga, © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST lay the draw.

Goals markets – back over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals. Correct score market – lay 0-0.

EXAMPLE 2 19:00 FT Elfsborg 1 : 3 Gais h2h 49’ Jesper Floren 54’ Eric Bassombeng 65’ Wanderson Do Carmo Niklas Hult 73’

Elfsborg are 1.33 at home. It is 0-0 at half-time. My conclusions for this match are repeated here verbatim: “CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – standout 90% overs stats for Elfsborg and they are likely to score 2 minimum at home. similarly, Gais have only failed to score in three matches this season. Ergo over 2.5 goals in the bag already? Gais are one of those nightmare trading teams – why? They are so fecking inconsistent!!” And the goals flowed in during the 2nd half albeit not for the team I expected. Still, a goals bet at half-time, at value odds, would have been successful.

EXAMPLE 3 13:30 FT Dundee United 0 : 1 Rangers MC 61’ Kyle Lafferty

In this match, Rangers were priced at 1.59 away from home against a team they had scored 4-3-4-2 goals against in their last 4 head to heads. My conclusions: © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – good defensive record for Rangers so early and an emphatic Celtic win already makes this 1.59 of some appeal. Expect early tight exchanges here and the prospect of a concerted period of 0-0 before a most likely Rangers first goal.

The match was 0-0 at half-time. And Dundee United had a man sent off. Lay Dundee United at half-time. Back Rangers to win the 2nd half.

Here’s another half-time score line we can exploit, in this example there is a general tendency for one of the teams to be a strong market leader. However, the half-time result does not quite reflect the apparent dominance suggested by the odds: EXAMPLE 4 20:45 FT Derry City 2 : 2 Drogheda 4’ Brian Gannon 38’ Gavin Brennan Gareth McGlynn 74’ Robert Duggan (og) 88’

Background – Derry are 1.14 favourites to win this match. Extremely strong favourites. However, this is not reflected in the half-time scoreline which sees outsiders Drogheda 0-2 up away from home. Now is the time to back a comeback by the 1.14 favourites. What can we do?

Back Derry at odds much better than the pre-match odds of 1.14 (we would have lost on this occasion as Derry did © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST not win the match but would have backed a very short odds team at far greater odds). Lay Drogheda in the match odds at 0-2 at odds much lower than were available pre match. Lay 0-2 scoreline in the Correct Score Market.

Bottom line Turn your football betting into 2nd half betting. Here are the advantages:

• The odds in all markets will offer greater value (using in-play facilities at bookmakers such as www.bet365. com and www.betfair.com) because the expected result has not materialised. • Backers can back their original fancies at better odds. • Layers can lay markets at lower odds (and remember betting exchange layers want low odds when they lay). • There will be greater urgency in the 2nd half for a fancied team to redress the balance. Half-time team talks can work wonders (ask Benitez in THAT Champions League Final).

So which matches do you choose? Quite simply, let the bookmakers do the work for you. Focus on matches where one team’s odds indicate they are the hot favourites. I normally focus on matches where one team is 1.6 odds or over. And wait until half-time.

If what was expected has not occurred by half-time, © Canonbury Publishing Ltd

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FIVE of the BEST consider using in-play bookmakers or betting exchanges like Betfair, and utilise the value odds available for both backers and layers.

I hope you found something here to whet your appetite. Do let me know which one (or ones!) you decide to try out – I look forward to hearing about your successes. And don’t forget to check out the accompanying videos for each of these articles. They can help you implement the strategies immediately. You can access the videos here:

http://www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/payback-videos

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