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First Edition
FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System Best Viewed at 125% Disclaimer 1. The product is designed as an information system for persons of legal age. 2. No guarantees are made with regard to results or financial gain from using this product. All forms of betting carry some risk; it is up to the individual to make informed decisions on bets made with or without assistance from this product. 3. T.Black Electronic Publications cannot be held responsible for any losses or wins incurred as a result of using this product.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
Copyright No part of this electronic document may be reproduced, edited or republished in print or in electronic format. This guide may not be duplicated in part or whole without the written consent of T.Black Electronic Publications. The Formula Assistant Workbooks are the property of T.Black Electronic Publications and must not be modified, distributed or sold. All data and factual information is correct at the time of going to publication. T.Black Electronic Publications cannot be held responsible for information that may change over time. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
FIRSTEDITION Published & Distributed by T. Black Electronic Publications © 2005
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
Contents Introduction
An introduction to the concept of Football Betting Science.
Important Features
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Key factors you should know
How do you bet like a professional? How to think like a professional
The Basics
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A brief overview of the system
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Bet Plans + Formulae for two events
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Fixed Budget Formula (FB2)
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Profit Target Formula (PT2)
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Individual Profit Formula (IP2)
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Bet Plans + Formulae for Three events
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Fixed Budget Formula ((FB3)
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Fixed Return Formula (FR3)
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The Recovery Formula (RECOV)
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Bet Plans + Formulae for Four events
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Fixed Budget Formula (FB4)
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Fixed Return Formula (FR4)
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Maximizing profits
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Using the formula workbooks Creating Betting Plans
49 53
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Introduction Thank you for purchasing the Football Betting Science System. We hope it assists you with your betting investments and helps to maximize wins and minimize losses. The systems in this manual consist of special math’s formulas which can be utilised in conjunction with your selection techniques to develop betting/staking plans for football betting using both online and off-line betting services.
The adaptability of the Football Betting Science System is its flexibility, especially when the mathematical formulas are applied to several different football betting investments. Using staking tactics to cover the potential outcomes of several events gives you an extremely powerful betting strategy. This feature of the system can be credited to the practices used by bookmakers and betting professionals who make profits by carefully investing in both short and long term projects ensuring that they are always in profit. It is now possible using the information contained within this manual for you to also have the benefits and profits from strategic betting and bet management tactics…the same as professionals are using on a daily basis to profit regularly from betting on football matches.
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The Football Betting Science system is not like any other conventional betting systems and its potency is based on betting odds and calculations and not on rating systems, team performance or any other predictable betting analysis data. The dynamic new approach provided by Football Betting Science will hopefully ensure that you change your approach to bet making and transform your view of betting to ensure long term profitability.
Do not be intimidated by the calculations and formulas, the more you use and apply them the more you will be able to understand and use them effectively. The formula workbooks will also provide you with easy to use interactive tables where you simply input the relevant data and the calculations are done for you.
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Football Betting Science Important Features
Selection Whilst betting science will provide the figures and strategy for your bets, you will be responsible for the selection process. The more proficient you are at the selection process, the more profit you will make by utilizing the math’s formulas we provide for you. Price Attainment A key factor affecting some formulas and profits are the prices (odds) attained for selections. Bookmaker’s prices do vary so it is important that you research the odds available for the particular football event that you are betting on. You can mix prices from different bookmakers to build a set of selections which offer the best value. (See maximising profits) Calculation Once you have the selections and the odds they are applied to one of the Football bet Science formulas that are appropriate for the bet you wish to make. Football betting Science has developed useful workbooks to aid with all formula calculations used by the system.
Important factors concerning this guide The betting formulas and methods that make up the Football betting Science System will allow you to make intelligent bets based on the 8
selections you choose. Good judgment and the application of the System will give you an edge over others. You must plan your bets carefully and take advantage of the methods and techniques presented in this guide. Some examples are based on certain figures to make learning easier and some formulas will not work if the prices are too low. In some instances, figures may vary slightly due to the rounding up or down of decimal places. Adjustments may have to be made to some stakes to make them practical for placement. There are many ways to make use of the Football Betting Science formulas and some examples are demonstrated for you. Some bookmakers may not want your business as a result of using Bet Science methods and you may wish to use several bookmakers. Round up / down your stakes to the nearest pound or £X.50 to prevent raising a bookmakers suspicions about your betting strategy. Betting Plans Betting plans are demonstrated in this book using formulas and effective match permutations and the formula workbook(s) provide fully interactive worksheets for each of the betting plans. There is also a single input workbook which utilizes the flexibility of the formulas to enable you to devise and use betting plans of your own. Betting Odds The formula workbooks require decimal odds to function properly and each page has a fractional / decimal odds conversion function.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
How do you bet like a professional? Before you can expect success from football betting, you must learn to think like a professional. A professional wouldn't place a bet without having first researched the background information of all the matches on offer. This may sound obvious but the vast majority (97%) of football bets are losing investments due to this basic requirement for successful betting. A professional, by the very nature of the word, has to win. Not every time - but he has to win to make a living. Just image yourself in a situation where you have to win - perhaps some of you have been in it. How would you act then? You would certainly take much more care over your selections and have an established betting bank, but is that enough? Successful football betting may be down to luck for a very small number of people for a very short period of time, however true winners win consistently and do not rely on luck, chance, or good fortune. Many gamblers devote their entire lives to losing and become perfect losers, blaming everything but themselves for their losses. The secret 10
to successful football betting is create bets which swing the balance of betting power in your favour and the Football Betting Science formulas will certainly assist you with this.
One basic principle which you should never forget: No matter how bad your recent results have been, they do not, in any way, affect the chances of your next bet.
Everyone
encounters sequences - it's a part of life that things happen in sequences. But the study of sequences for betting purposes is irrelevant, because each investment you make is a completely independent entity, unaffected by anything that has happened before or after an event. Once you understand this, you will treat the inevitable losing runs with a completely different attitude. You will begin to be unaffected by them - not completely, but enough to ensure that they are not on your mind as you make your next match selections. This is important - if you are psychologically affected by being in the middle of a losing sequence, your judgment will be affected as you make your next bet. There is no doubt about it. Conversely, a 'good' sequence must never lead to rashness or complacency. If you ever make a bet purely because of the outcome of a previous one, whether it is because you are so well in profit that you decide to 11
try to extend the winning streak, or whether it is because to want to recover losses quickly, then you have not grasped the basic psychology required for the discipline of successful betting.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
The Basics At a basic level the Football Betting Science System can be thought of as covering a range of betting outcomes to provide contingency against losing bets whilst providing a reasonable profit for winning bets - rather than making one bet you are covering a range of possibilities that might win. Bookmakers use a similar process to ensure coverage and profit despite having to pay out on winning bets. The two variables of applying the formulas are determined by how much you would like to stake on the overall bet or setting a specific profit return. Important factors when applying the formulas are the viability of the odds available and the type of formula you apply theses odds to.
Making intelligent bets that generate profits by incorporating supporting bets for protection is they key to long term betting success and forms the central philosophy of the football betting
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science systems. The following formulas and their applications have been created to enable you to make such intelligent bets.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
Bet Plans + Formulae for two events One of the easiest uses of the Football Betting Science formulas is to create bets over two events and which endorses the philosophy of proportional staking. Two event betting simply means placing two separate bets which can have either one or two possible winning outcomes. The following bet plans have been created using specific match combinations in conjunction the betting formulas for two events and the workbook assistant provides facilities for using these plans.
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Fixed Budget Formula (FB2) The ease of use of this formula will enable you to manage your bets quickly and enable you to work within a specific budget. This formula is aimed at proportioning staking levels over two football events to give an equal return for each bet using a fixed budget. The betting plan uses two match selections and the formula requires that you input the odds for each of the two bets and the total budget which you are going to use. Working Example The example below shows the arrangement of the plan using a total budget of £10. The formula will calculate how to proportion the budget between each bet to give the same winning return for each one.
Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.57 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.57 / 3.6 Total Betting budget - £10 1 = Home win X = Draw
Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 2.46
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Bet 2 1 X 5.65
The formula for calculating the stake for each bet is shown below THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Betting Budget = £? Working Formula The stake formula for bet 1 is:(Y + 1) * £? divided by (X+Y+2) The stake formula for bet 2 is:(X + 1) * £? divided by (X+Y+2) • Where £? is the predetermined stake
Using the Formula The first step is to acquire the working odds for the formula; this simply means the odds that you will require for your calculations. Single bet odds can be put straight into the formula but accumulator odds have to be calculated in a separate process. Table one shows the odds of each selection and the total odds for each bet Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds
Table 1 Bet 1 1.57 1.57 2.46
Bet 2 1.57 3.6 5.65
Once the total odds are know for each bet (the working odds) they are then applied to the formula along with the betting budget of £10
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THE FORMULA Variable X = (2.46-1) = 1.46 Variable Y = (4.65 – 1) = 3.65 Betting budget = £10.00 The stake for bet 1 is: 3.65 + 1 * £10 (£46.50) divided by 1.46 + 3.65 + 2 (7.11) = £36.50 divided by 7.11 which equals £6.54 The stake for bet 2 is: 1.46 + 1 * £10 (£24.60) divided by 1.46 + 3.65 + 2 (7.11) i.e. £24.60 divided by 7.11 which equals £3.46 Total stake = £6.54 + £3.46 = £10
The calculations from the formula are then used to make your bets. Table two shows how the budget has been distributed between the two bets and amounts to £10. If either bet wins the profit remains the same. Table 2 1 = Home win X = Draw
Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Bet 1 1 1 2.46 £6.96 £17.16 £7.16
Bet 2 1 X 5.65 £3.04 £17.16 £7.16
Total stake = £10
Both bets return the same profit
SEE PAGE FB(2) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR TWO AND THREE MATCH PLANS.
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Profit Target Formula (PT2) A variation on the fixed budget formula is the profit target formula. A feature of making professional bets is the ability to specify profit goals. The profit target formula is a powerful and flexible formula which is central to this professional betting ethos. The formula data requirements are the odds for each bet but instead of a fixed budget input you will enter a profit target amount for each bet. Working Example The example below shows the arrangement of the plan - The aim is to show a profit of £20 from each bet and the formula will calculate the staking levels required to achieve this. It is important to note that the stakes for each bet will be determined by the profit target and the odds for each bet. Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.57 Selection 2 - Home win – Odds = 1.57 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.57 / 3.6 Profit Target - £20 1 = Home win X = Draw
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 1 3.87
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Bet 2 1 1 X 8.87
The formula for calculating the stake for each bet is shown below THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Profit Target = £PX Working Formula The stake formula for bet 1 is: (Y + 1) * £PX divided by (X * Y) – 1 The stake formula for bet 2 is: (X + 1) * £PX divided by (X * Y) – 1
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the profit target.
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Profit Target
Table 1 Bet 1 1.57 1.57 1.57 3.87 £20.00
Bet 2 1.57 1.57 3.6 8.87 £20.00 Profit target
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Using the total odds and profit target, the formula is applied THE FORMULA Variable X = (3.87-1) = 2.87 Variable Y = (8.87-1) = 7.87 Profit Target = £20.00 (PX = 20) Working Formula The stake for bet 1 is: (7.87 + 1) * £20 (177.40) divided by (2.87 * 7.87)) – 1 (21.59) = 177.40 divided by 21.59 which equals £8.22 The stake for bet 2 is: (2.87 + 1) * £20 (£77.40) divided by (2.87 * 7.87)) – 1 (21.59) = 77.40 divided by 21.59 which equals £3.58 • Rounding up / down has been used to adjust for decimal places.
Table two shows the results - profit target £20 (Total stake = £11.80)
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Table 2 Bet 1 1 1 1 3.87 £8.22 £31.80 £20.00
Bet 2 1 1 X 8.87 £3.59 £31.80 £20.00
Total stake = £11.80
Both bets return the same Profit
SEE PAGE PT(2) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR TWO AND THREE MATCH PLANS. 21
Individual Profit Formula (IP2) Being able to identify profit targets is a powerful element of professional betting and enables you to modify future bets to balance any previous loses and future profit targets. Football Betting Science has constructed a profit calculator and incorporated it into the two outcome formula for the purpose of setting specific profit targets. The plan uses two selections and although it may seem similar in description to the previous profit target formula, it differs in that it enables you to specify different profit targets for each of your two bets. Working Example The example below shows the bet structure and the two different profit targets which have been set at £15 and £5. Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.4 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 2.5 / 3.2 Profit Targets £15 and £5
1 = Home win X = Draw
Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds Profit target
Bet 1 1 1 3.5 £15.00
Bet 2 1 X 4.48 £5.00 Profit targets
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The formula is shown below – THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Profit Target for bet 1 = P1 Profit Target for bet 2 = P2
Working Formula The stake formula for bet 1 is: ([Y * P1] + P2) / ((X * Y) – 1) The stake formula for bet 2 is: ([X * P2] + P1) / ((X * Y) – 1)
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the individual profit targets.
Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds Profit target
Table 1 Bet 1 1.4 2.5 3.5 £15.00
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Bet 2 1.4 3.2 4.48 £5.00
Using the total odds and profit targets, the formula is applied THE FORMULA
Variable X = (3.5-1) = 2.5 Variable Y = (4.48-1) = 3.48 Profit Target for bet 1 = £15.00 = P1 Profit Target for bet 2 = £5.00 = P2 Working Formula The stake for bet 1 is: (3.48 * 15) + 5 divided by (2.5 * 3.48) – 1) = 57.2 divided by 7.7 which equals £7.43 The stake for bet 2 is: (2.5 * 5) + £15 divided by (2.25 * 3.48) – 1) = 27.5 divided by 7.7 which equals £3.57
Table two illustrates the distribution of the stakes required to acquire such profits. Total stake is £11.00 Table 2
1 = Home win X = Draw
Selection 1 Selection 2 Total Odds Stake Return Profit target
Bet 1 1 1 3.5 £7.43 £26 £15.00
Bet 2 1 X 4.48 £3.57 £16 £5.00
Total stake = £11
Different profit targets
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NOTE It is also possible to use the second bet as a recoup bet which will return the value of the total stake money if it is the winning line – to do this simply add the value 0 (zero) as the profit target for the second bet. This is very useful if you have a lot of confidence in your first bet and want to win larger profits from it without having to also name a profit target for your second bet.
SEE PAGE IP(2) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE
FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR TWO AND THREE MATCH PLANS.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
Bet Plans + Formulae for Three events It has been demonstrated that placing bets with two possible outcomes can give professionals a greater betting advantage. Incorporating a third betting outcome provides superior contingency opportunities. The following betting plans have been created using match combinations in conjunction with the betting formulas for three event betting to utilize this contingency feature. The workbook assistant provides facilities for using these plans.
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Fixed Budget Formula (FB3) Adapted from the fixed budget formula for two betting outcomes, this formula integrates a third option and provides greater flexibility. To apply the formula you are required to input the three separate betting odds and the total budget you will be using for these bets, it will then calculate staking levels for you to place on each one and the equal returns each one will provide. Working Example The arrangement of the plan is shown below. A total stake budget of £20 will be divided between each bet to give the same winning return for each one. Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.44 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 / 4 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 / 4 Total betting budget - £20 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 1 2.99
X = Draw
Bet 2 1 1 X 8.29
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Bet 3 1 X 1 8.29
The formula is shown below THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable Z = Odds for bet 3 minus 1 Betting budget = £? Formula The stake formula for bet1 is: S=Y+1*Z+1 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1 = X + 1 * Z + 1 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = X + 1 * Y + 1 We can say T = S + S1 + S2 S3 = S * £? divided by T S4 = S1 * £? divided by T S5 = S2 * £? divided by T
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the betting budget
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Budget £20
Table 1 Bet 1 1.44 1.44 1.44 2.99
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Bet 2 1.44 1.44 4 8.99
Bet 3 1.44 4 1.44 8.99
Using the total odds and the betting budget, the formula is applied THE FORMULA Variable X = (2.99-1) = 1.99
Betting budget = £20
Variable Y = (8.99-1) = 7.99 Variable Z = (8.99-1) = 7.99 Formula The stake formula for bet1 is: S = 7.99 + 1 * 7.99 + 1 equals (8.99 * 8.99) = 80.82 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1= 1.99 + 1 * 7.99 + 1 equals (2.99 * 8.99) = 26.88 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = 1.99 + 1 * 7.99 + 1 equals (2.99 * 8.99) = 26.88 We can say T = S + S1 + S2 equals (80.82 + 26.88 + 26.88) = 134.58 S3 = 80.82 * £20 divided by 134.58 equals 1616.4 / 134.58 =£12.01 S4 = 26.88 * £20 divided by 134.58 equals 537.60 / 134.58 = £3.99 S5 = 26.88 * £20 divided by 134.58 equals 537.60 / 134.58 = £3.99
Table two illustrates the final bet outline. Table 2
1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Bet 1 1 1 1 2.99 £12.01 £35.91 £15.91
X = Draw
Bet 2 1 1 X 8.29 £3.99 £35.91 £15.91
Bet 3 1 X 1 8.29 £3.99 £35.91 £15.91
Total stake = £20.00 Each bet returns the same Profit
SEE PAGE FB(3) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR THIS PLAN 29
Fixed Return Formula (FR3) The fixed return formula for three events is an enhancement of the two bet models which can be used to aim for a precise betting yield. By accommodating a third variable into the formula the capacity for successful profit generation is increased. The formula data requirements are three betting odds and a fixed return amount for each bet. Working Example The example below shows a three line plan. A fixed return of £20 is the target and the stake amount is determined by the odds and fixed return figure Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.44 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 2.2 / 3.2 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 2.2 / 3.2 Fixed return target - £20 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 1 6.97
X = Draw
Bet 2 1 1 X 10.14
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Bet 3 1 X 1 10.14
The formula is shown below THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable Z = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Formula = £? / O+1 Where £? is the fixed return figure and O is the odds The stake formula for bet1 is: S = £?/ X + 1 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1 = £?/ Y + 1 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = £?/ Z + 1
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the desired return figure Table 1
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Fixed return
Bet 1 1.44 2.2 2.2 6.97 £20.00
Bet 2 1.44 2.2 3.2 10.14 £20.00
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Bet 3 1.44 3.2 2.2 10.14 £20.00
Using the total odds and fixed return target, the formula is applied THE FORMULA Variable X = (6.97-1) = 5.97 Variable Y = (10.14 -1) = 9.14 Variable Z = (10.14 -1) = 9.14 Fixed return figure = £20 Formula = £? / O+1 Where £? is the fixed return figure and O is the odds The stake formula for bet1 is: S = £20/ 5.97 + 1 = £2.87 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1 = £20/ 9.14 +1 = £1.97 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = £20/ 9.14 +1 = £1.97Variable X = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable Z = Odds for bet 2 minus 1
Table two illustrates the structure of the bet. Table 2
1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Bet 1 1 1 1 6.97 £2.87 £20.00 £13.19
X = Draw
Bet 2 1 1 X 10.14 £1.97 £20.00 £13.19
Bet 3 1 X 1 10.14 £1.97 £20.00 £13.19
Total stake = £6.81 Each bet returns £20
SEE PAGE FR(3) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR THIS PLAN 32
The Recovery Formula (RECOV3) This formula is useful when you are confident about a bet selection but you would like to incorporate a safety feature that protects your stake investment allowing you to break even if part of your bet fails. This three bet system incorporates one profit making bet and two recovery bets which will return the stake money. The formula uses a point multiplier which produces staking amounts for the bet. Working Example The plan below shows how a banker home selection is used to cover every possible outcome of another match. Bet 1 is the profit making bet and bets 2+3 are used to recoup the total stake money if they win. The formula will calculate the stake division between the bets using a point multiplier to adjust the total stake amount to be used. Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.57 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw / Away – Odds = 2.2 / 3.2 / 3.2 Point’s multiplier – 0.5 1 = Home win
Selection A Selection B Total odds
X = Draw
Bet 1 1 1 3.45
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2 = Away win
Bet 2 1 X 5.02
Bet 3 1 2 5.02
The formula for calculating the stake requirements is shown below THE FORMULA Variable X = Odds for bet 3 minus 1 Variable Y = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable Z = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Point Multiplier = (?) Working Formula The stake points formula for bet 3 is: (Y + 1) * Point multiplier (?) The stake points formula for bet 2 is: (X + 1) * Point multiplier (?) The stake points formula for bet 1 is: ((X * Y) - 1) * Point multiplier (?)
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection and the accumulative odds for each bet. Table 1 Selection A Selection B Total odds
Bet 1 1.44 2.2 3.45
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Bet 2 1.44 3.2 5.02
Bet 3 1.44 3.2 5.02
Points Multiplier Once the odds are known, they are then applied to the formula and a point multiplier is used within the formula calculations to produce the staking amount which you are going to use for your bets.
Variable X = (5.02-1) = 4.02
THE FORMULA
Variable Y = (5.02-1) = 4.02 Variable Z = (3.45 -1) = 2.45 Point Multiplier = 1 – (The point’s multiplier can be varied until the total staking amount is satisfactory for your betting budget)
Working Formula The stake points formula for bet 3 is: (4.02 + 1) = 5.02 The stake points formula for bet 2 is: (4.02 + 1) = 5.02 The stake points formula for bet 1 is: ((4.02 * 4.02) - 1) = 15.16 Thus The stake for bet 3 is: 5.02* 1 = £5.02 The stake for bet 2 is: 5.02* 1 = £5.02 The stake for bet 1 is: 15.16* 1 = £15.16
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Table two illustrates the bet - You will see that bet 1 is the profit bet and bets two and three will return the stake money if they are winning bets. Table 2 Selection A Selection B Total odds Stake Returns Profit
Bet 1 1 1 3.45 £7.58 £26.15 £13.55
Bet 2 Bet 3 1 1 X 2 5.02 5.02 £2.51 £2.51 £12.60 £12.60 Stake Stake
Total stake=£12.60 Bets 2 + 3 return the stake money
The recovery formula offers a wide variety of betting strategies and the profits gained are determined by the input data to the formula i.e. the betting odds and points multiplier, the options are limitless and you can create many different bet combinations. One of the major strengths of the bet is its ability to allow you to concentrate on selecting one match as a banker bet. If you can confidently select only one winning match then you can use it to cover the Home win / Draw / Away results of as many fixtures as you like knowing that at worst you will get your stake money refunded. This has particular profit potential as it allows the banker bet to be used in conjunction with matches that may not normally be considered for betting purposes, for example, you can use the banker bet to cover “risky” matches with higher odds knowing that as long as your banker bet wins the worst case scenario is the return of your stake money. SEE PAGE RECOV(3) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR THIS PLAN 36
FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System
Bet Plans + Formulae for Four events The following formulae incorporate bets to provide superior betting coverage over four events and the addition of a fourth variable gives wider options for contingency planning. The betting plans have been created by integrating the formula with a powerful betting perm which uses four match selections. The workbook assistant provides easy to use interactive worksheets for using these plans.
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Fixed Budget Formula (FB4) The four bet formula is a dynamic and powerful betting model which offers superior contingency cover for single and multiple events. For this formula you are required to input the four separate betting odds and the total budget you will be using for these bets. The formula will then divide the betting budget to devise stakes for each of the bets to ensure an equal return is calculated per bet. Working Example The plan below shows a four line perm using short priced selections. A stake budget of £30 has to be allocated proportionally between each bet to give the same return for each one. Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.44 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 / 4 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 / 4 Selection 4 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 / 4 Total betting budget - £30 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 1 1 4.30
Bet 2 1 1 1 X 11.94
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X = Draw
Bet 3 1 1 X 1 11.94
Bet 4 1 1 X X 33.18
The formula for calculating the stake requirements is shown below THE FORMULA Variable A = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable B = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable C = Odds for bet 3 minus 1 Variable D = Odds for bet 4 minus 1 Betting budget = £? Working Formulae The stake formula for bet 1 is: S1= ([B + 1] * [C + 1] * [D + 1]) The stake formula for bet 2 is: S2= ([A + 1] * [C + 1] * [D + 1]) The stake formula for bet 3 is: S3= ([A + 1] * [B + 1] * [D + 1]) The stake formula for bet 4 is: S4= ([A + 1] * [B + 1] * [C + 1]) In Combination S5= (S1 + S2] + S3] + S4) Thus The stake for Outcome A is: ([S1] * [£P]) / (S5) The stake for Outcome B is: ([S2] * [£P]) / (S5) The stake for Outcome C is: ([S3] * [£P]) / (S5) The stake for Outcome D is: ([S4] * [£P]) / (S5)
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Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the betting budget Table 1 Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds Budget £30
Bet 1 1.4 1.44 1.44 1.44 4.30
Bet 2 1.4 1.44 1.44 4 11.94
Bet 3 1.4 1.44 4 1.44 11.94
Bet 4 1.4 1.44 4 4 33.18
Using the total odds and betting budget, the formula is applied THE FORMULA Variable A = (4.3 – 1) =3.3 Variable B = (11.94 – 1) =10.94 Variable C = (11.94 – 1) =10.94 Variable D = (33.18 – 1) = 32.18. Betting budget = £? Predetermined Stake = £P Working Formulae The stake formula for bet 1 is: S1= (10.94 + 1] * (10.94 + 1) * (32.18 + 1) equals (11.94 * 11.94 * 33.18) = 4730.26 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S2= (3.3 + 1) * (10.94 + 1) * (32.18 + 1) equals (4.3 * 11.94 * 33.18) = 1703.53 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S3= (3.3 + 1) * (10.94 + 1) * (32.18 + 1) equals (4.3 * 11.94 * 33.18) =1703.53 The stake formula for bet 4 is: S4= (3.3 + 1) * (10.94 + 1) * (10.94 + 1) equals (4.3 * 11.94 * 11.94) = 613.02
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In Combination S5= (4730 + 1730.53 + 1730.53 + 613.02) = 8750.34 Thus The stake for Outcome A is: 4730.26 * £30 / 8750.34 = £16.22 The stake for Outcome B is: (1730.53 * £30 / 8750.34 = £5.84 The stake for Outcome C is: (1730.53 * £30 / 8750.34 = £5.84 The stake for Outcome D is: 613.02 * £30 / 8750.34 = £2.10
Table two illustrates the bet layout and the distribution of the budget total £30 Table 2 Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Bet 1 1 1 1 1 4.30 £16.22 £69.73 £39.73
Bet 2 1 1 1 X 11.94 £5.84 £69.73 £39.73
Bet 3 1 1 X 1 11.94 £5.84 £69.73 £39.73
Bet 4 1 1 X X 33.18 £2.10 £69.73 £39.73
Total stake = £30.00
Each bet returns the same amount
SEE PAGE FB(4) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR THIS PLAN
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Fixed Return Formula (FR4) The four bet formula is a dynamic and powerful betting model which offers superior contingency cover for single and multiple events. For this formula you are required to input the four separate betting odds and the fixed return target figure. Working Example The plan below uses short priced selections. A fixed return target of £20 is the objective and the formula will calculate the required staking levels to achieve this. Staking levels are determined by the odds and fixed return figure Selection 1 - Home win – Odds = 1.44 Selection 2 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.44 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.57 / 3.5 Selection 3 - Home win / Draw – Odds = 1.57 / 3.5 Fixed return target - £20 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds
Bet 1 1 1 1 1 5.11
Bet 2 1 1 1 X 11.39
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X = Draw
Bet 3 1 1 X 1 11.39
Bet 4 1 1 X X 25.40
The formula for calculating the stake requirements is shown below THE FORMULA
Variable A = Odds for bet 1 minus 1 Variable B = Odds for bet 2 minus 1 Variable C = Odds for bet 3 minus 1 Variable D = Odds for bet 4 minus 1 Fixed Return Figure = £?
Formula = £? / O+1 - Where £? is the fixed return figure and O is the odds The stake formula for bet1 is: S = £?/ A + 1 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1 = £?/ B + 1 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = £?/ C + 1 The stake formula for bet 4 is: S3 = £?/ D + 1
Using the Formula Table one displays the individual odds of each selection, the accumulative odds for each bet and the fixed return target Table 1 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds Return £20
Bet 1 1.4 1.44 1.57 1.57 5.11
Bet 2 1.4 1.44 1.57 3.5 11.39
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X = Draw
Bet 3 1.4 1.44 3.5 1.57 11.39
Bet 4 1.4 1.44 3.5 3.5 25.40
Using the total odds and fixed return target, the formula is applied THE FORMULA
Variable A = (5.11 – 1) =4.11 Variable B = (11.39 – 1) =10.39 Variable C = (11.39 – 1) =10.39 Variable D = (25.40 – 1) = 24.40. Formula= £? / O+1 (Where £? is the fixed return figure and O is the odds) The stake formula for bet1 is: S = £20/ 4.11 + 1 = £3.91 The stake formula for bet 2 is: S1 = £20/ 10.39 + 1 = £1.76 The stake formula for bet 3 is: S2 = £20/ 10.39 + 1 = £1.76 The stake formula for bet 4 is: S3 = £20/ 24.40 + 1 = £0.79
Table two illustrates the distribution of the stake - total £20 Table 2 1 = Home win
Selection 1 Selection 2 Selection 3 Selection 4 Total Odds Stake Return Profit
Bet 1 1 1 1 1 4.30 £4.65 £20.00 £11.40
Bet 2 1 1 1 X 11.94 £1.68 £20.00 £11.40
X = Draw
Bet 3 1 1 X 1 11.94 £1.68 £20.00 £11.40
Bet 4 1 1 X X 33.18 £0.60 £20.00 £11.40
Total stake = £8.60 Each bet returns £20
SEE PAGE FR(4) OF THE WORKBOOK ASSISTANT - THE FORMULA WORKBOOK PROVIDES A WORKSHEET FOR THIS PLAN 44
FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System Maximizing profits The growing popularity of the Internet has changed many things, and one area that this is particularly noticeable is betting. No longer are people confined to betting with a small number of bookmakers. New firms have become more and more commonplace and competition has increased. This has provided great benefits to people with an interest in football betting. Bookmakers are now offering better odds to compete with one another and the creation of betting exchanges has increased competition even further. Large bookmaking companies set football odds independently of each other and this is an often underused area of profit making for football betting enthusiasts. This has even more significance with the boom in internet betting companies. When you place your bets with only one bookmaker you are in serious danger of losing out on potential winnings. A little research and work is required by you but the rewards can be well worth it and is a pursuit well worth undertaking. We will demonstrate what we mean in the following pages The figures below highlight the differences in odds offered by individual bookmaking firms. The figures used were actual odds from three established bookmakers. 45
Bolton v Blackburn Fulham v Birmingham
HOME 2 2.37
DRAW 3.2 3.2
AWAY 3.75 2.9
Bolton v Blackburn Fulham v Birmingham
1.9 2.2
3.2 3.2
3.5 2.8
Bolton v Blackburn Fulham v Birmingham
1.8 2.2
3.2 3.2
4 2.75
The price each bookmaker was offering for the home win, draw and away win selections show differences but it is difficult at first glance to see the effect they could have on any betting strategy. Using the two matches we will now demonstrate how the odds difference can affect potential profit margins using one of our betting plans in a scenario.
Scenario –
Recovery
Formula
Plan
4,
Budget
£20
Using the odds from each of the three bookmakers and working with a betting budget of £20 the data was applied to the recovery formula using the formula assistant. The points multiplier was adjusted until the stake total came to £20, the results are shown below. BOOKMAKER 1
PROFIT = £43.63
Bolton Fulham Total odds Stake Returns Profit/loss
Bet 1 1 1 4.74 £13.42 £63.64 £43.64
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Bet 2 1 X 6.4 £3.12 £20 0
Bet 3 1 2 5.8 £3.45 £20 0
Total stake=£20
BOOKMAKER 2
PROFIT = £34.14
Bolton Fulham Total odds Stake Returns Profit/loss
Bet 1 1 1 4.18 £12.95 £54.14 £34.14
Bet 2 1 X 6.08 £3.29 £20 Stake
BOOKMAKER 3
PROFIT = £30.24
Bolton Fulham Total odds Stake Returns Profit/loss
Bet 1 1 1 4.05 £12.41 £50.24 £30.24
Bet 2 1 X 5.76 £3.47 £20 Stake
Bet 3 1 2 5.32 £3.76 £20 Stake
Bet 3 1 2 4.95 £4.12 £20 Stake
Total stake=£20
Total stake=£20
It is now evident from the results above just how significant the odds difference is when they are applied to a betting plan. Bookmaker 1 has far greater profits than bookmakers 2 and 3 and demonstrates how profits can be increased substantially simply by researching the different prices on offer from different firms. Our example only used three different bookmakers for comparison purposes. Make use of the large number of bookmakers available when making your odds analysis, you will discover that there are many opportunities for you to exploit the difference in odds supplied by a variety of bookmakers.
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The scenario we used shows that one bookmaking firm has the best prices for the entire bet and these are the ones you would use, however it is more than likely you will find that you have to use a different bookmaker for each part of your bet. Investigate the odds from as many bookmakers as you can, this may take a little time but once you have mastered the technique of calculating the odds of your match selections you will soon become more proficient and incorporate this odds evaluation into your regular betting strategy.
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FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System Using the formula workbooks The football Betting Science system has developed special spreadsheet workbooks to make calculation of bet formulas and formulation of bet plans easier. To use this you will require some form of compatible spreadsheet software. We recommend you use Microsoft Excel, however if you don’t have any spreadsheet software you can download a free compatible program. The link for the software download is http://www.software602.com/products/pcs/download.html Once you have software you can start using the Formula Assistant Workbooks to devise your bets plans. When you first launch the Formula Assistant you are met with the following screen:
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This is the main page of the workbooks and you can link to the formula pages by using the page links or page tabs. You will then be able to use the worksheet for the application you have selected
Each sheet has data input sections where you insert the team names, betting odds and profit targets / budget amount.
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Once you have inserted the input data, all the calculations relating to the betting plan are automatically displayed in the output table.
You can then use the information in the table to place your bets. The workbooks require decimal odds to function and each workbook has an easy to use Fractional – Decimal odds converter.
Put in fractional odds here and use the decimal output reading only! 51
FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE The Professional Betting System Creating Betting Plans The flexibility of the formulae used in this electronic book has shown that they can be used in many different ways to give a wider choice of betting strategies. Each of the formulas is dependent on single input data - the working odds and the stake or profit targets and this data was utilized in each of our betting plans to give you a greater choice of betting options. Football Betting Science has also provided a single input worksheet for you to create your own betting plans for you to capitalize on this. The single input workbook enables you to use the formulas with the working odds from single events and/or a combination of single and multiple events. To enable you to create different betting strategies Football Betting Science also provides an accumulator worksheet to calculate the working odds from 2, 3, 4 and 5 match selections. This empowers you to create powerful bet combinations and offers a virtually unlimited number of betting permutations and contingency opportunities.
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Example A bet plan will be devised using the individual profit formula for two outcomes (IP 2) and will be based on two separate accumulator bets. Bet 1 is a treble consisting of three short priced home wins and Bet 2 is a double based on home wins of longer odds. The profit targets are £10 and £5 respectively Bet 2
Bet 1 Liverpool - 1.44 Bury – 1.4 Leyton O – 1.57 Profit target £10
Dundee Utd – 2.2 Motherwell – 2 Profit Target £5
The formula workbook also provides a worksheet to calculate accumulator odds for 2, 3, 4 and 5 matches The screenshot below demonstrates the input data process.
The accumulator odds are acquired using the worksheet (ACC). Team names and individual odds are applied and the working odds calculated for each bet 53
Then the working odds and profit targets are applied to the Individual profit worksheet. Bet 1 Liverpool Bury Leyton O
Working (total) odds
Profit target £10
1 1 1 3.16
Bet 2 Dundee U Motherwell -
Working (total) odds
Profit target £5
1 1 4.4
The output data is given here. The full bet is displayed in the table below Bet 1 Liverpool 1 Bury 1 Leyton O 1 Total odds 3.16 Stake £6.15 Return £19.43 Profit Target £10
Bet 2 Dundee U Motherwell Total odds
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1 1 4.4 £3.28 14.43 £5
Total stake = £9.43 Different profit targets
If any of the two bets win the profits are £10 and £5 for bets 1 and 2 respectively, however each bet is independent of each other and only one bet needs to win for a profit to be made. There are many different uses for the formulas for betting on both single and multiple events.
Example Using interrelated single events (1) Using the fixed budget formula for four outcomes (FB 4) the bet will be based on four of the most common Half Time / Full time results. A match has been selected from the English Premiership - Everton v Charlton and a budget of £10 will be used Budget £10 Bet 1 Bet 2 Bet 3 Bet 4 Everton/Charlton Home/Home Away/Away Draw/Home Draw/Away Total Odds 3.15 38 5.2 11
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The screenshot above demonstrates the input data process for the worksheet. The screenshot below demonstrates the formula calculations from the worksheet after the working odds and budget data have been applied.
Bet 1 Bet 2 Bet 3 Bet 4 Everton/Charlton Home/Home Away/Away Draw/Home Draw/Away Total Odds 3.15 38 5.2 11 Stake £5.06 £0.42 £3.07 £1.45 Return £15.95 £15.95 £15.95 £15.95 Profit £5.95 £5.95 £5.95 £5.95
Total stake = £10.00
The table above displays the layout of the final bet using the readout from the formula calculations. If any of the Half Time / Full Time results win then an overall profit of £5.95 will be gained.
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Another example of using bets which are associated with one single football event is demonstrated on the following page.
Example Using interrelated bets (2) Using the recovery formula (RECOV) the bet will be based a single home win selection which is the profit making bet and two correct score draw forecasts from the same game which protect the stake money. Home win odds – 2.46 (1-1) Draw odds – 7.2
(2-2) Draw odds - 17
The screenshot above demonstrates the input data process. The points Multiplier has been adjusted for a total stake budget of £10 which has been distributed between the three bets. (NOTE – The stake total shown in each column is the total stake for all bets i.e. in this case the stake total is £10 not £30) 57
The table below displays the layout of the final bet using the readout from the formula calculations. The Bet Selection Total odds Stake Returns Profit
Bet 1 Home win 2.46 £8.02 £19.74 £9.74
Bet 2 1-1 Draw 7.2 £1.39 £10.00 Stake
Bet 3 2-2 Draw 17 £0.59 £10.00 Stake
Total stake = £10.00
The two correct score forecasts return the stake money
Home win Profit = £9.74
The home win forecast is protected by the two correct score forecasts which have been calculated by the formula to return the exact stake money if they are the winning bets. The previous examples are just a few of the different ways in which the formulas can be adapted to create betting plans of your own. The flexibility of the formulas will enable you to combine an almost limitless combination of football betting events. Formula Applications – Perms, Accumulators Single events - i.e. a single win and covered by a draw, correct score draw, half time forecast or any other interrelated bet. Single event + accumulator - single bets and accumulators combined.
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We hope you enjoy using Football Betting Science and wish you great success with your new betting system. The Football Betting Science Team.
Football Betting Science - Produced, Published and Edited by T.Black Electronic Media Publications A member of the fixed odds Association Scotland (U.K) www.fixedodds.btinternet.co.uk
[email protected]
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