Estadistica Proyección en Un Futuro PNP

 

QKEMOÄC GCOMKGCE @JE QJRÙ @MRJOOMßG @J J@ZOCOMßG ] @KOPRMGC QKEMOMCE J_OZJEC @J OCQCOMPCOMßG ] J_QJOMCEMYCOMßG QKEMOMCE J_OZJEC GCOMKGCE @J NKRDCOMßG QRKNJ_MKGCE QKEMOMCE "QZJGPJ QMJ@RC"

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@J@MOCPKRMC ] CLRC@JOMDMJGPK_

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 C gujstrk octj`rãtmok, qumjg dj`mcgtj sjsmkgjs smgorÿgmocs jstã eklrcg`k ec okd ok dpejt pejtc c c` c`qu qums msmo momÿ mÿg g `j okgk okgkom omd dmjgt mjgtks ks sk skbr brj j ec dctjr ctjrmmc, c qu qumj mjg g clrc`jojdks tcdbmíg pkr su cetk jspärmtu vkocomkgce ce nkdjgtcr jg ecs jstu`mcgtjs vcekrjs mgstmtuomkgcejs jg je dcrok `j gujstrc cotucem`c`.

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 C gujstrks pc`rjs, qumjgjs `äc c `äc `ktcg `j cpkyk dkrce y cnjotuksk c gujstrcs ecbkrjs oktm`mcgcs.

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 C gujstrc mgstmtuomÿg pkr cebjrlcrgks okg ec dästmoc quj eks ocrcotjrmzc, gkbej mgstmtuomÿg quj c pjscr `j su rjcem`c` clktc sus djikrjs rjoursks pcrc nug`cr jg gujstrks okgkomdmjgtks cpkrtjs `j sudc mdpkrtcgomc pcrc gujstrc nugomÿg pkemomce.

MGPRK@ZOOMßG ?

 

Je prjsjgtj trcbcik dkgklrãnmok `j jstc`ästmoc prjsjgtc ec prkyjoomÿg `j ugc gujvc Qkemoäc Gcomkgce `je Qjrù okg ugc cprjomcomÿg nuturmstc `j : c 31 cóks jg c`jecgtj. Ecs jstc`ästmocs jstc`ästmocs skbrj je `jscrrkeek `j ec QGQ skg ug bujg mg`moc`kr pcrc tjgjr ug okgko ok gkomd mdmj mjgt gtk k nmnmcb cbej ej `j ou oucg cgtk tkss jnjot jnjotmv mvks ks js jstã tãg g kp kptmtmdm dmzc zcg` g`k k sus sus nu nugo gomk mkgjs gjs y jejvcg`k je rjg`mdmjgtk mgtjejotuce lrcomcs c ec mdpejdjgtcomÿg eklästmoc y rjnkrdc`c `j ec QGQ quj okdk prkyjoomÿg prjsjgtcdks jg jstc mgvjstmlcomÿg. _kdks ugc mgstmtuomÿg mgstmtuomÿg orjc`c okg ec nmgcem`c` nmgcem`c` `j dcgtj dcgtjgjr gjr je kr`jg mgtjrgk y ec pcz skomce, smjg`k eks prmdjrks jg coomkgcr cgtj ug fjofk `jemotmvk k ugc jdjrljgomc. Jstc pcg`jdmc `jvjek ecs ocrjgomcs `j gujstrks fkspmtcejs, ojgtrks `j ctjgomÿg y jstruoturc tjogkeÿlmoc `j ec QGQ, yc quj tk`ks eks smstjdcs `j gujstrc mgstmtuomÿg sj dkstrcrkg `jsncsc`cs j mgocpcojs `j jgnrjgtcrsj c jstc smtucomÿg8 jstk gks eecdc c ec rj rjnenejxm jxmÿg ÿg j mg mgvm vmtc tc c rjc rjcememzc zcrr ug ugc c pr prkyj kyjoo oomÿ mÿg g `j dj djik ikrä räc c y jnmo jnmomj mjgom gomc c cgt cgtj j ec vcglucr`mc tjogkeÿlmoc pcrc jgnrjgtcr oucequmjr jvjgtk. Bcstc Bcst c ok okg g dm dmrc rcrr c eks eks pc pcääsj sjss `js jscr crrk rkeeeec` c`ks ks,, okd kdk k cgce cgcemz mzcg cg ecs gk gkrd rdcs cs,, prkoj`m prko j`mdmj dmjgtk gtkss y prm prmgom gompce pcejs js ocrcotj ocrcotjräs rästmo tmocs cs `j su mgstmt mgstmtuom uomÿg ÿg k djo djocgm cgmsdk sdk `j `mvjrscs nugomkgjs pkemomcejs okdk ec sjlurm`c`, mgvjstmlcomÿg y okgtrke `j m`jgtm`c` jg ec ejlmsecomÿg okdpcrc`c `j Jspcóc, Cejdcgmc, Nrcgomc y Jstc`ks Zgm`ks pcrc pk`jr pk` jr tjg tjgjr jr ugc vms vmsmÿg mÿg `j ugc guj gujvc vc Qke Qkemoä moäc c Gco Gcomkg mkgce ce cetcdj cetcdjgtj gtj skn sknmst mstmoc` moc`c c y ocpcomtc`c pcrc jgnrjgtcrsj c ecs gujvcs dk`cem`c`js `jemotmvcs. Je prjsjgtj `koudjgtk fc sm`k jecbkrc`k c skemomtu` `j gujstrk `kojgtj, bcik sus krmj krmjgt gtco comk mkgjs gjs y pc pcrt rtmo moue uecr crjs js rj rjqu qujr jrmd mdmj mjgt gtks ks.. Qk Qkrr ok okgs gsml mlum umjgt jgtj, j, je tjdc tjdc qu quj j cbkr`cd cbkr `cdks ks y sus okg okgtjg tjgm`k m`kss jst jstãg ãg `jemdm `jemdmtc` tc`ks ks pkr eks pcrã pcrãdjt djtrks rks `j cgã cgãems emsms ms cokr`c`ks y pkr je peczk `j jgtrjlc okgvjgm`k. Js ug `koudjgtk coc`ídmok y sj jgdcroc jg eks ormtjrmks `j vcem`jz, okgnmcbmem`c`, gjutrcem`c` y kpkrtugm`c` jg su jgtrjlc. Nmgcedjgtj, prjsjgtcrjdks je cgãemsms ljgjrce cpemoc`k c ec nugomÿg pkemomce, ouc`rks jstc`ästmoks cokdpcóc`k `j sus okgoeusmkgjs y rjokdjg`comkgjs.

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OCQMPZEK M DCROK PJßRMOK EC QGQ JG EC COPZCEM@C@  C gmvje gcomkgce fcy 30 pjrskgcs jxmstj ug jnjotmvk pkemomce, sjlùg je ùetmdk ojgsk `je cók 213=. Qcrc okdbctmr ec mgsjlurm`c` omu`c`cgc, ec Qkemoäc Gcomkgce rjqumjrj, gk skek `je pjrskgce pkemomce jgocrlc`k `j vjecr pkr jstj tjdc, smgk `j eks dj`mks eklästmoks. _kek >6% `j ecs `jpjg`jgomcs pkemomcejs oujgtc okg ek bãsmok8 js `jomr, coojsk c mgnkrdcomÿg `j rjqumsmtkrmcs. Cotucedjgtj, je prjsupujstk pcrc je sjotkr Mgtjrmkr js `j 6 dme dmeekgjs 0 dme skejs, quj mgoeuyjg, jgtrj ktrcs prmkrm`c`js, ec okgstruoomÿg `j 00 okdmscräcs y ec okgstruoomÿg `j 6? pjgcejs, yc quj jxmstj ugc pkbecomÿg `j =3,2>< rjks. Ec Qkemoäc Gcomkgce `je Qjrù js ugc mgstmtu mgstmtuomÿg omÿg `je Jstc`k orjc`c pcrc lcrcgt lcrcgtmzcr mzcr je kr`jg mgtjrgk, je embrj jijromomk `j eks `jrjofks nug`cdjgtcejs `j ecs pjrskgcs y je gkrdce `jscrrkeek `j ecs cotmvm`c`js omu`c`cgcs. Js prknjsmkgce y ijrcrqumzc`c. _us mgtjlrcgtjs mgtjlr cgtjs rjprjsjgtcg rjprjsjgtcg ec ejy, je kr`jg y ec sjlurm`c` jg tk`c ec Rjpùbemoc y tmjgjg okdp okdpjt jtjg jgom omc c pc pcrc rc mgtj mgtjrv rvjg jgmr mr jg tk`k tk`kss eks eks csug csugtk tkss qu quj j sj rj rjec ecom omkg kgcg cg okg okg je oudpemdmjgtk `j sus nugomkgjs. Ec nmgcem`c` nug`cdjgtce `j ec Qkemoäc Gcomkgce `je Qjrù js lcrcgtmzcr, dcgtjgjr y rjstcbejojr je kr`jg mgtjrgk. Qrjstc prktjoomÿg y cyu`c c ecs pjrskgcs y c ec okdugm`c`. Lcrcgtmzc je oudpemdmjgtk `j ecs ejyjs y ec sjlurm`c` `je pctrmdkgmk pùbemok y prmvc`k. Qrjvmjgj, mgvjstmlc y okdbctj ec `jemgoujgomc. ^mlmec y okgtrkec ecs nrkg nrkgtj tjrc rcs. s. Qk Qkrr ek lj ljgj gjrc rce,e, ecs ecs ug ugm` m`c` c`js js kp kpjr jrct ctmv mvcs cs `j ec Qk Qkememoä oäc c sjcg sjcg jstc jstcss jspjomcemzc`cs k ugm`c`js tjrrmtkrmcejs, jg je dkdjgtk quj sj prjsjgtc ug fjofk pkememom pk omce ce cotù cotùcg cg `j mg mgdj dj`m `mct ctk. k. Eujl Eujlk k sm je fj fjof ofk k cd cdjr jrmtmtc, c, pk pkrr su lr lrcv cvj` j`c`, c`, ec mgtjrvj mgtjrvjgom gomÿg ÿg `j ugc ugm ugm`c` `c` jsp jspjom jomcem cemzc`c zc`c,, jgt jgtkgo kgojs js ecs ugm ugm`c` `c`js js tjr tjrrmt rmtkrmc krmcejs ejs okdugmocg `j mgdj`mctk pcrc quj sj fclcg ocrlk `j jeecs. Dmjgtrcs tcgtk, sj jgocrlcg `j rjslucr`cr je eulcr pcrc jvmtcr ec cetjrcomÿg `j ec jsojgc `je `jemtk. :

 

GZJ^C_ PJOGKEKLÄC_ JG EC QKEMOÄC Pjejvm Pje jvmlme lmecgom cgomc, c, vm` vm`jkv jkvmlm mlmecg ecgomc omc,, vml vmlmec mecgom gomc c jej jejotr otrÿgm ÿgmoc8 oc8 Bcsj Bcsjss `j `ct `ctks, ks, sms smstjd tjdcs cs mgtjemljgtjs `j cpkyk c ec tkdc `j `jomsmkgjs. Pk`ks jstks `mspksmtmvks, quj fcg eejlc`k ce ocdpk `j ec sjlurm`c` `js`j je sjotkr dmemtcr pcrc okgskem`cr jstc skomj`c` `j okgtrke, prjsjgtcg lrc`ks `j jnmocomc mgskspjofc`ks fcstc fcoj ugks cóks. Iugtk c eks dãs okgkom`ks, okdk ecs oãdcrcs y eks omroumtks ojrrc`ks `j tjejvmsmÿg, ec ecss rj` rj`js js `j okdug okdugmo mocom comÿg ÿg ok okdp dpcrt crtm` m`cs cs,, ec ecss bc bcsj sjss `j `ctk `ctkss qu quj j rj rjec ecom omkg kgcg cg krlcgmzcomkgjs y c`dmgmstrcomkgjs `mvjrscs k eks smstjdcs `j ekocemzcomÿg, suojsks okdk eks kourrm`ks jg je `äc c `äc jg gujstrc skomj`c`, fcg sjrvm`k pcrc quj je pùbemok okgkzoc ktrcs tjogkekläcs quj, pkr ek ljgjrce, fcbäcg jstc`k ce sjrvmomk `j sjotkrjs duy jspjomcemzc`ks.  Eks trjs prmdjrks sj jstãg okgnmlur okgnmlurcg`k cg`k okdk ec okeud okeudgc gc vjrtjbrce `j tk`cs jstcs tjogkekläcs cpemoc`cs c ec sjlurm`c`. Jstks trjs lrupks nkrdcg ugc rj` mgtjrcotmvc jg ec ouce ug smstjdc usc `ctks orjc`ks pkr ktrks pcrc okgtrkecr ecs pjrskgcs, eks dkvm dk vmdm dmjgt jgtks ks y su suss co cotmtmvm vm`c `c`j `js. s. Ok Ok`m `mnmnmoc ocg g y `j `jok ok`m `mnmnmoc ocg g mg mgnk nkrd rdco comÿ mÿg g qu quj j ec omu`c`cgäc ljgjrc y ec prkojscg c ec euz `j su pjemlrksm`c` rjce k pktjgomce. Eks `mspksmtmvks bmkdítrmoks skg cqujeeks quj uscg ecs dj`m`cs `j `mnjrjgtjs pcrtjs `jee ou `j oujr jrpk pk fu fud dcgk cgk ok okdk dk dj dj`m `mk k `j m`jg m`jgttmnmo mnmoco comÿ mÿg. g. _j trc rcttc `j smst smstjd jdcs cs cutkdctmzc`ks ocpcojs `j ocpturcr ugc mdcljg, jxtrcjr `ctks `j jeec, okdpcrcr  jsks `ctks okg ktrks okgtjgm`ks jg ktrc u ktrcs rjnjrjgomcs prjvmcs, `jom`mr fcstc quí pugtk sj ciustcg j mg`mocr sm sj prk`uoj k gk ec m`jgtmnmocomÿg k okdprkbcomÿg `j m`jgtm`c`. Okdk sj vmjgjg yc uscg`k jg `mvjrscs jgtm`c`js jstctcejs y prmvc`cs `j gujst gu jstrk rk pcä pcäs, s, okd okdk k RJ RJGM GMJO JO,, QGQ, QGQ, jd jdbc bcic` ic`cs cs jgtr jgtrj j ktrk ktrks. s. Jg lj ljgj gjrce rce,, jstk jstkss smstjdcs sj oecsmnmocg jg `ks lrupks. Qkr ug ec`k, eks bcsc`ks jg ncotkrjs näsmoks k nmsmkeÿlmoks, okdk ecs fujeecs `cotmecrjs, ecs ocrcotjrästmocs `j ec pcedc `j ec dcgk, ecs dj`m`cs `j ec jstru jstruoturc oturc ncomce, ncomce, ec rjtmg rjtmgc c k je C@G8 tcdbmíg sj mgoeumrä mgoeumräcg cg jg jstj lrupk cqujeeks smstjdcs quj bcscg ec m`jgtmnmocomÿg jg ec ljkdjträc `j ec dcgk, ec nk nkrd rdc c `j ec kr krji jic c y je ke kekr kr ok okrpk rpkrc rce.e. Qkr Qkr ktrk, ktrk, ek ekss sm smst stjd jdcs cs bmkd bmkdít ítrm rmoks oks dãs dãs >

 

okdp ok dpkrt krtcd cdjgt jgtce cejs, js, qu quj j cg cgce cemz mzcg cg rc rcsl slks ks mg mg`m `mvm vm`u `uce cejs js dj djgk gkss pr prjo joms msks ks qu quj j ek ekss jstrmotcdjgtj näsmoks, bcsc`ks jg ec okg`uotc (pctrkgjs `j vkz, ec nmrdc k eks dkvmdmjgtks brusoks k dcroc`ks). Jstks smstjdcs sj jstãg `jscrrkeecg`k pcrc ec vmlmecgomc `j omjrtcs mgstcecomkgjs, okdk eks cpcrocdmjgtks k ecs jstcomkgjs `j trjg, y jg `jtjrdmgc`ks jvjgtks, okdk eks pcrtm`ks `j nùtbke, y jstãg jspjomcedjgtj mg`moc`ks pcrc `jtjotcr okdpkrtcdmjgtks jspjomcedjgtj vmkejgtks (mgojg`mks, rkbks k vcg`cemsdk). Zg sjlug`k lrupk `j tjogkekläcs sjräcg ecs quj jstãg ojgtrc`cs jg ec kbsjrvcomÿg y je okgtrke `j ecs pjrskgcs, sus cotmvm`c`js y eks jspcomks quj koupcg. @jgtrk `j jstj lrupk, ecs `j dãs trc`momÿg skg ecs oãdcrcs `j vm`jkvmlmecgomc. Ktrcs, dãs okdpejics pjrk bcsc`cs jg je dmsdk prmgompmk `j ec dkgmtkrmzcomÿg, sjräcg, pkr  jijdpek, je smstjdc `j pksmomkgcdmjgtk lekbce (LQ_), väc sctíemtj, quj puj`j sjlumr  ec pmst pmstc c `j vj vjfä fäou ouek ekss pjr pjr`m `m`k `kss k rk rkbc` bc`ks, ks, ek ekoc ocememzcr zcr ug ugm` m`c` c`js js `j pk pkememoä oäc c k ek ekss dkvmdmjgtks `j mg`mvm`uks quj jstíg oudpemjg`k omjrtcs okg`jgcs, okdk je crrjstk `kdmomemcrm `kdmo memcrmk k k je ceji cejicdmjgt cdmjgtk k `j `jtjrd `jtjrdmgc`ks mgc`ks eulcrjs8 tcdbmíg eks `mspks `mspksmtmvks mtmvks quj pjrdmtjg je sjlumdmjgtk `j pjrskgcs c pcrtmr `je rjlmstrk `j ec jdmsmÿg `j kg`cs jejot jejotrkd rkdclg clgít ítmo mocs cs qu quj j js ec vk vkz8 z8 jg js jstj tj dm dmsd sdk k lrupk lrupk jstc jstcrä räcg cg tk tk`ks `ks jsks jsks `mspksmtmvk `mspks mtmvkss quj pjrdmtjg je okgtr okgtrke ke `j ec cotmvm`c` cotmvm`c` mgnkrdãt mgnkrdãtmoc moc pkr dj`mk `j eks okgkom`ks okrrjks jejotrÿgmoks "trkycgks". Qkr ùetmdk, `jstcocräc ug tjrojr lrupk `j tj tjogk ogkek eklä läcs cs bc bcsc sc`c `css jg je cgãe cgãems msms ms `j md mdãl ãljg jgjs js k rjl rjlms mstr trks ks,, `msj `msjóc óc`c `css pc pcrc rc `jok`mnmocr `jok`m nmocr ec mgnkrd mgnkrdcomÿg comÿg quj pjrdcgj pjrdcgjoj oj kouetc jg `jtjrd `jtjrdmgc`ks mgc`ks jspcomks, `jtrãs `j bcrrjrcs näsmocs, okdk eks durks k ecs rkpcs, k c rjsuetcs `j su dcec `jnmgmomÿg, yc sjc jg nktklrcnäcs k vm`jks. Pk`k je dug`k okgkoj ecs jdmsmkgjs `j euz quj pjrd pj rdmtmtjg jg sjóc sjócec ecrr fuje fujeec ecss k rj rjst stks ks `j neum neum`k `kss okrp okrpkr krce cejs js qu quj j c smdp smdpej ej vmst vmstc c pjrdcgjojg kouetks, k eks smstjdcs quj pjrdmtjg mgspjoomkgcr je mgtjrmkr `j dcejtcs smg cbrmrecs jg eks cjrkpujrtks. Jg ktrks pcäsjs, tcejs okdk Jstc`ks Zgm`ks, yc fcy cpememoco cp ocomk mkgjs gjs tj tjog ogke keÿl ÿlmo mocs cs quj quj `j `jtj tjot otcg cg dk dkvm vmdm dmjgt jgtks ks `j oujrp oujrpks, ks, y fc fcst stc c ec rjspmrcomÿg, c trcvís `j ecs pcrj`js. _mstjdcs pcrjom`ks skg eks quj sj uscg `js`j fcoj tmjdpk pcrc vjr jg ec ksourm`c` k pcrc m`jgtmnmocr omjrtcs cotmvm`c`js, okdk ec <

 

sägtjsms `j `rklc, c pcrtmr `j ec tjdpjrcturc k ecs rc`mcomkgjs quj `jsprjg`jg eks suijtks k eks kbijtks bcik vmlmecgomc.

CELZGK_ JNJOPK_ @J EC_ GZJ^C_ PJOGKEKLÄC_ JG EC QKEMOÄC   Je `msoursk dãs jxtjg`m`k skbrj ec mgokrpkrcomÿg `j tjogkekläc c ec pkemoäc y, jg ljgjrce, c ec sjlurm`c` fcoj rjnjrjgomc c ec orjomjgtj okdpejim`c` skomce y c ec pcuect pcu ectmgc mgc sknmst sknmstmoc mocomÿ omÿg g `j ecs prão prãotmo tmocs cs ormdmgc ormdmgcejs ejs.. _j skstmjg skstmjgj j quj ec jnmocom jnmocomc c `jpjg`j `j ec mgokrpkrcomÿg `j rjoursks quj sjcg ocpcojs `j fcojr nrjgtj y ljstmkgcr jsc dcykr okdpejim`c` y sknmstmocomÿg, y duy c djgu`k sus jnjotks skg jvce jvceuc uc`k `kss ocsm ocsm jxoe jxoeus usmv mvcd cdjg jgtj tj c jstj jstj gmvj gmvjee dã dãss jxpe jxpeäo äomtmtk k `j ecs ecs nugo nugomk mkgj gjss dcgmnmjstcs. Ecs gujvcs tjogkekläcs `j ec mgnkrdcomÿg y ec okdugmocomÿg pjrdmtjg quj nugomkgj smg jspcomks quj ej sjcg prkpmks. _m cgtjs fcbäc eulcrjs `kg`j ec pkemoäc gk pk`äc cooj`jr k `kg`j ec embjrtc` pk`äc sjr ejlätmdcdjgtj emdmtc`c, cfkrc ec tjogkvmlmecgomc pjrdmtj quj cdbks puj`cg jstcr mgtjrpjgjtrc`ks jg ec dmsdc dj`m`c. Dãs ojgtrc`ks jg ec pkemoäc y jg su jijromomk prknjsmkgce oktm`mcgk, fcy quj `jomr quj ec c`kpomÿg y je usk jnjotmvk `j gujvcs tjogkekläcs gk fc sm`k ug prkojsk emgjce, gm gjutrk y, `js`j celugks pugtks `j vmstc, oucequmjr oksc djgks crdÿgmoc. Jg gujstrc skomj`c`, ecs gujvcs tjogkekläcs `j ec okdugmocomÿg y ec mgnkrdcomÿg fcg ceocgzc`k yc ug jstctus ocsm dãlmok jg ec djikrc `j ocem`c` `j vm`c k jg ec rjskeuomÿg `j prkbejdcs skomcejs8 jg oecvj omjrtcdjgtj utÿpmoc, celugks `msoursks sj bcscg jg "ec prjsugomÿg bãsmoc (quj) smjdprj js ec dmsdc9 ec gujvc tjogkekläc trcjrã sceu` pcrc tk`ks, dãs embjrtc`, rjvmtcemzcrã ec pkeätmoc, sctmsncrã ecs gjojsm`c`js okejotmvcs j mg`mvm`ucejs". Gk kbstcgtj, ecs jxpjrmjgomcs quj sj tmjgjg `j su c`kpomÿg y su usk jnjotmvk jg je jijromomk prknjsmkgce oktm`mcgk jg ec pkemoäc pjrdmtjg, sm gk `u`cr `j sus jgkrdjs pktjgomcem`c`js k dkstrcr ug jsojptmomsdk quj jg dk`k celugk jstcräc pejgc pejgcdj djgt gtj j ius iustmtmnmnmoc oc`k `k,, sä pecg pecgtj tjcr cr ce celu lugc gcss ouj oujst stmk mkgjs gjs.. Jg celu celugks gks ocs ocsks, ks, ec mg mgok okrp rpkrc krcom omÿg ÿg `j jst jstcs cs tj tjog ogke kekl kläc äcss fc jg jgokg okgtr trc` c`k k rjs rjsms mstj tjgom gomcs cs y fc orj orjc`k c`k tjgsmkgjs jg je mgtjrmkr `j krlcgmzcomkgjs ouyks neuiks `j mgnkrdcomÿg y trcbcik `jbäc 6

 

prjomscdjgtj djikrcr8 jg ktrks, fc sjrvm`k pcrc quj cnekrjg omjrtcs `msnugomkgjs jgtrj krlcgmzcomkgjs `j pkemoäc `mvjrscs quj nkrdcedjgtj sj mgtjlrcg jg ug dk`jek ùgmok. Mgoeusk, fcy cutkrjs quj fcg eecdc`k ec ctjgomÿg skbrj omjrtc pír`m`c `j scvk sc vkmr mr-n -ncm cmrj rj jg ec pr prão ãotmtmoc oc pk pkememom omce ce rj rjec ecom omkg kgc` c`c c ok okg g ec mg mgok okrpk rpkrco rcomÿ mÿg g `j jstcs jstcs tjogkekläcs ce trcbcik oktm`mcgk. Jgtrj ecs rjsmstjgomcs c quj ecs gujvcs tjogkekläcs fcg tjgm`k quj fcojr nrjgtj jg ec pkemoäc, ec dãs mgdj`mctc js ec yc okdjgtc`c skbrj je okgtrke `j eks prkpmks jnjotmvks. Ktrcs djgks jvm`jgtjs, k quj sj fcg dcgmnjstc`k djgks jxpeäomtcdjgtj, skg ecs rjecomkgc`cs okg je pjrnme `j ecs pjrskgcs c ouyk usk jstãg `jstmgc`cs, okg su j`c`, y jg rjecomÿg okg jstc vcrmcbej, okg je lrc`k `j nkrdcomÿg quj tmjgjg y ec skomcemzcomÿg prknjsmkgce quj fcg rjombm`k. Jg ljgjrce, je mdpcotk y je pjsk quj ecs `mnjrjgtjs tjogkekläcs quj sj fcg m`k mgokrpkrcg`k ce trcbcik `j ec pkemoäc tmjgjg jg ecs `mnjrjgtjs pecgtmeecs tmjgj duofk quj vjr okg je tmpk `j oueturc prknjsmkgce quj smrvj `j dcrok c ecs rjecomkgjs pjrskgcejs y prknjsmkgcejs `jgtrk `j oc`c okejotmvk, js `jomr okg je okgiugtk `j rjprjsjgtcomkgjs djgtcejs dãs k dj djgk gkss ok okd dpc pcrt rtm` m`cs cs sk skbr brj j ek qu quj j js y `j `jbj bj sjr je trc rcbc bcik ik `j ec pk pkeemoäc moäc.. Mg`j Mg`jpj pjg` g`mj mjgt gtjd jdjg jgtj tj `j quj quj pu puj` j`c c rj rjok okgk gkoj ojrs rsj j qu quj j je usk usk `j jstj jstj tmpk tmpk `j tjogkekläcs sjc vjgtciksk pcrc je `jsjdpjók `je trcbcik oktm`mcgk jg ec oceej, jg duofks ocsks sj pmjgsc quj skg ugc "pír`m`c `j tmjdpk".  Qkr ùetmdk, je usk `j ecs gujvcs tjogkekläcs jstã mg`uomjg`k omjrtcs `msnugomkgjs jg ec okkr`mgcomÿg jgtrj `mnjrjgtjs pkemoäcs. Jg ec dj`m`c jg quj, okdk yc sj fc `mofk, gk tk tk`cs `cs ec ecss kr krlc lcgm gmzc zcom omkg kgjs js pr prjsj jsjgt gtcg cg je dm dmsd sdk k lrc`k lrc`k `j mg mgok okrpk rpkrco rcomÿ mÿg g `j tjogkekläc y jg ec dj`m`c jg quj je trcbcik oktm`mcgk jstã mlucedjgtj `jtjrdmgc`k `j dcgjrc `mnjrjgtj pkr cpemocomkgjs `mstmgtcs, sj fc okgstctc`k quj sj prk`uojg cutígtmocs mgokdpctmbmem`c`js jg eks prktkokeks `j okdugmocomÿg y trcspcsks `j mgnkrdcomÿg quj, jg duofcs kocsmkgjs, sj trc`uojg jg `jtjrmkrk `j rjecomkgjs prknjsmkgcejs. Qujs bmjg, oucg`k jstc mgnkrdcomÿg yc trctc`c (mgnkrdjs, cotcs, ctjstc`ks) `jbj pcscr `j ugc pkemoäc c ktrc (`j ec pkemoäc ekoce c ec cutkgÿdmoc), ec tjogkekläc quj `mrmlj jstj trcspcsk, gk smjdprj ek pjrdmtj. Cotucedjgtj, duofcs pkemoäcs ekocejs =

 

jstãg smjg`k `ktc`cs `j ecs cpemocomkgjs mgnkrdãtmocs pcrc je trctcdmjgtk `j ec mgnkrdcomÿg quj yc nugomkgcg jg ec pkemoäc cutkgÿdmoc, jg ug pcsk dãs jg ec `mrjoomÿg `j eks ciustjs `je dk`jek pkemomce octceãg, ug pcsk dktmvc`k pkr ecs gujvcs tjogkekläcs `j ec mgnkrdcomÿg y ec okdugmocomÿg.

QRK]JOOMßG @JE NZPZRK @J EC QGQ »Sumíg gk okgkoj c Rkbkokp, je pkemoäc dmtc` fudcgk-dmtc` rkbkt quj sj fmzk pkpuecr jg ec pjeäouec `j eks =1; Pce vjz csä js okdk duofks sj mdclmgcg ce pkemoäc `je dcócgc, okdbctmjg`k je ormdjg `ktc`k `j tjogkekläc quj gks pcrjojräc jxoeusmvc `j ec omjgomc nmoomÿg. _mg jdbc jd bcrl rlk, k, y cu cugqu gquj j gk ek orjcs, orjcs, yc ce celug lugks ks pecg pecgtj tjej ejss pk pkememom omce cejs js oujgt oujgtcg cg okg okg `mspksmtmvks y djocgmsdks `mlgks `j pjeäouecs `j coomÿg, pkgmjg`k c ec pkemoäc `je nuturk bcstcgtj pkr `jecgtj `j ek quj skejdks mdclmgcrgks ce pjgscr jg ug cljgtj.

J_PRCPJLMC_ ] EKLÄ_PMOC SZJ Z_CRÄC EC QGQ JG JE 21?1

Ecs jspkscs `j cetc tjogkekläc Zgk `j eks jejdjgtks quj cskomcdks dãs c eks pkemoäcs, sjlurcdjgtj skg ecs jspkscs, ug mdpejdjgtk mgvjgtc`k jg 3=32, fcoj dãs `j 311 cóks. Cfkrc, sj fc prjsjgtc`k ug gujvk dk`jek ocpcz `j rjtjgjr c ec väotmdc gk skek dj`mcgtj su oeãsmok djocgmsdk `j sjlurm`c`, smgk okg ec pksmbmem`c` `j mgdkvmemzcrek dj`mcgtj ofkqujs jeíotrmoks k `rklcs. Kbvmcdjgtj, sj cpugtc c dcgtjgjr ce dägmdk ecs kpomkgjs `j embjrcomÿg, pu`mjg`k sj`cr k jdmtmr ugc `jsocrlc tcgtk ce mgtjgtcr  jsocpcrsj, okdk pkr jxprjsc vkeugtc` `je pkemoäc.

Bcecs okg LQ_ Ktrc täpmoc jsojgc pkemomce js ec quj jgdcroc c ugk k dãs vjfäoueks pctrueejrks, pjrsmlumjg`k c cetc vjekom`c` ug ormdmgce jg nulc. _m bmjg jg ecs pjeäouecs sujejg tj tjgjr gjr rj rjsue suetc tc`k `kss nc ncvk vkrcb rcbej ejss (s (sce cevk vk ou oucg` cg`k k ek ekss pr prkt ktclk clkgm gmst stcs cs sk skg g ek ekss pr prkp kpmk mkss 31

 

ormdmgcejs), jg ec rjcem`c` skg ecs ocuscgtjs `j ecs dcykrjs nctcem`c`js, tcgtk jg je oujrpk pkemomce okdk jg trcgsjùgtjs mgkojgtjs. Ek quj sj prkpkgj okg ecs bcecs LQ_ js jvmtcr ec pjrsjouomÿg y eks pksmbejs coom`jgtjs, `mspcrcg`k bcecs jspjomcejs quj, ugc vjz mdpcotcg je vjfäouek `j jsocpj, cotmvcg ug smstjdc `j sjlumdmjgtk quj pjrdmtj okgkojr ec ubmocomÿg ce `jtceej, smg gjojsm`c` `j dcgtjgjrek c ec vmstc. Ktrc vjgtcic `j jstc gkvj`c` js quj pk`räc pjrdmtmr c eks pkemoäcs cojrocrsj `j nkrdc mgoÿlgmtc, `mspcrcg`k ec bcec `j sjlumdmjgtk smg gjojsm`c` `j eecdcr ec ctjgomÿg okg smrjgcs k eks täpmoks okofjs pkemomcejs.

Cgãemsms `j C@G mgstcgtãgjk _m jrjs csm`uk c sjrmjs `j P^ okdk O_M k smdmecrjs, fcbrãs vmstk quj eks dujstrjks `j C@G skg celk smdpej y rãpm`k `j rjcemzcr. _mg jdbcrlk, ec rjcem`c` gks dujstrc ktrc oksc, gk skek okg ecrlks tmjdpks `j jspjrc pcrc kbtjgjr rjsuetc`ks, smgk dcykrjs `mnmouetc`js pcrc kbtjgjr dujstrcs ùtmejs. Cfkrc, kbtjgjr ug rjsuetc`k pk`räc sjr ugc oujstmÿg `j dmgutks, lrcomcs ce smstjdc Rcpm@GC, `jscrrkeec`k pkr ec okdpcóäc ELO Nkrjgsmos. ] okdpcrcr dujstrcs `j scglrj, sjdjg k scemvc sjrã cùg dãs jnmocz, sudc`k c ec mdpkrtcgomc `j jstks prkojsks jg ec m`jgtmnmocomÿg y rjskeuomÿg `j orädjgjs vmkejgtks.

Oãdcrcs `j sjlurm`c` quj prj`mojg cotmtu`js co tmtu`js vmkejgtcs _m bmjg ec mgstcecomÿg `j oãdcrcs `j sjlurm`c` cyu`c c rjlmstrcr jvm`jgomc skbrj eks ormdmgcejs, js bmjg scbm`k quj gk puj`jg prjvjgmr eks fjofks, y jg kocsmkgjs sj tkrgc bcstcgtj bcstcgtj sjgomeek burecr su sjlurm sjlurm`c`. `c`. Js pkr jsk quj sj fcg orjc`k oãdcrcs quj jspjoänmocdjgtj cgcemzcg je okdpkrtcdmjgtk `je oujrpk, prj`momjg`k ctcqujs y cejrtãg`kgks jg tmjdpk rjce. _j trctc `j ug smstjdc quj prkyjotc ug jsqujejtk ?@ `j eks suijtks jg dkvmdmjgtk, ocpcz `j cgcemzcr y prj`jomr sus dkvmdmjgtks pcrc `jtjotcr okg cgtjecomÿg oucequmjr mgtjgtk `j clrjsmÿg. Ec oãdcrc, quj tmjgj su krmljg jg je smstjdc `j vm`jkiujlks Hmgjot, nuj tjstjc`c jg fkspmtcejs pcrc prjvjgmr  ctcquj ctc qujss `j pcomjg pcomjgtjs tjs vmkejg vmkejgtks tks,, crrkic crrkicg`k g`k prj` prj`moo moomkg mkgjs js quj rkg` rkg`cg cg je =1% `j jnjotmvm`c`. 33

 

?@-M@ Jg ocsks `j octãstrknjs k smtucomkgjs `kg`j sj tkrgc `mnäome m`jgtmnmocr oujrpks, sj sujej rjourrmr c jgtmjrrks dcsmvks quj gk smjdprj rmg`jg fkgkrjs c ecs väotmdcs, c`jdãs `j sjdbrcr `u`cs skbrj je rjce pcrc`jrk `j eks mgvkeuorc`ks. Okg ec m`jc `j jemd jemdmgcr mgcr jsc smtuco smtucomÿg, mÿg, mgvjstml mgvjstmlc`krjs c`krjs `j ec Zgmvjrsm`c` `j Ocrkemgc Ocrkemgc `je Gkrtj fcg orjc`k je eecdc`k ?@-M@, ug smstjdc ocpcz `j jsocgjcr ugc dujstrc `je jsqujejtk `je nceejom`k, y okdpcrãg`kek okg ugc bcsj `j `ctks, okgnmrdcr ec m`jgtmnmocomÿg `j jstj. Jstc m`jgtmnmocomÿg gk js 311% cutkdãtmoc jg sä, pjrk sä `jdujstrc je sjxk y je jgtkrgk `j j`c` `j ec pjrskgc, fcomjg`k duofk dãs sjgomeec ec tcrjc `je rjokgkomdmjgtk.

Je ncdksk "rjnejik `j oÿrgjc" Ktrk oemofí jg ecs sjrmjs `j P^ js je rjoursk `j `jtjotcr ce ctcocgtj dj`mcgtj mdãljgjs tkdc`cs c ec väotmdc (lrcomcs c oãdcrcs `j sjlurm`c`) jg je dkdjgtk `je ormdjg. Dãs pugtucedjgtj, cgcemzcg`k je rjnejik jg je kik. _m bmjg pcrjoj ktrc "jstùpm`c" "jstùp m`c" tjogkeklä tjogkekläc c ncesc jg ec tjejvmsmÿ tjejvmsmÿg, g, fc sjrvm` sjrvm`k k `j mgspmrcomÿg pcrc ug lrupk `j mgvjstmlc`krjs quj jxpjrmdjgtÿ okg jstc m`jc, eejlcg`k c ug 60% `j jnjotmvm`c` jg eks ocsks `j prujbc. Kbvmcdjgtj, ecs okg`momkgjs `jbjg jstcr `c`cs pcrc ugc bujgc mdcljg quj rjvjej ek gjojscrmk pcrc cpkrtcr prujbcs, pjrk pk`räc sjr je prmd prmdjr jr pcsk pcsk fc fcom omc c je pjrn pjrnjo joom omkg kgcd cdmmjg jgttk `j js jstj tj tcg tcg our urmk mksk sk dí díttk` k`k k `j rjokgkomdmjgtk.

Cutkpsmc vmrtuce Zgc vjz clktc`ks omjrtks rjoursks, ugc cutkpsmc sujej sjr je prkoj`mdmjgtk quj crrkic dãs mgnkrdcomÿg skbrj ugc väotmdc y sus omrougstcgomcs ce dkdjgtk `j nceejo nceejojr. jr. Qjr Qjrk k pkr dkt dktmvk mvkss rje rjemlm mlmksk kskss k oue ouetur turcej cejs, s, gk smjdprj smjdprj js pks pksmbe mbej j eejvcr  eejvcr  c`jecgtj tce jstu`mk. Zgc nkrdc `j em`mcr okg jsk sjrã ec cutkpsmc vmrtuce, jg ec quj `mnjrjgtjs `mspksmtmvks pk`r pk `rãg ãg jsocg jsocgjcr jcr je ou oujr jrpk pk y or orjc jcrr ug ugc c pr prkyj kyjoo oomÿ mÿg g tr trm` m`md mdjg jgsm smkg kgce ce.. Lrco Lrcomc mcss c fjrrcdmjgtcs mgnkrdãtmocs y skntwcrjs jspjomcejs, eks nkrjgsjs pk`rãg rjcemzcr eks 32

 

dmsdks trcbciks quj fcräcg skbrj je oujrpk rjce, pjrk jg je `upemoc`k vmrtuce. Qkr sm nujrc pkok, ec `mlmtcemzcomÿg `j ec mgnkrdcomÿg pjrdmtj okdpcrtmr eks `ctks ce mgstcgtj okg `mnjrjgtjs okejlcs smg mdpkrt mdpkrtcr cr ecs `mstcgomcs, pu`mjg`k kbtjgjr csä rjsuet rjsuetc`ks c`ks dãs okdpejtks, lrcomcs c ugc "sjlug`c kpmgmÿg".

Mg`mvm`uks okg djdkrmc pjrnjotc RKBKP_  Celk jxtrcók pjrk rjce, skg ecs pjrskgcs quj oujgtcg okg ugc djdkrmc pjrnjotc, ocpcz `j rjokr`cr rkstrks, gùdjrks, skgm`ks k mdãljgjs mgoeusk cugquj eks vjcg ugc ùgmoc vjz. Qrjoms Qrjomscdjgtj cdjgtj,, jstks mg`m mg`mvm`uks vm`uks pk`räcg sjr jgtrjg jgtrjgc`ks c`ks (dãs ceeã `j su fcbmem`c` gcturce) y utmemzc`ks jg ncvkr `j ec rjskeuomÿg `j orädjgjs, jvmtcg`k csä ec okgtcdmgcomÿg jg ec mgnkrdcomÿg ljgjrc`c pkr ec nrãlme djdkrmc `je omu`c`cgk prkdj`mk. Sumjgjs Sumjg js fcg pujstk jg prãotmoc jstj dítk`k fcg sm`k eks pkemoäcs pkemoäcs `je Rjmgk Zgm`k Zgm`k,, qumjgjs lrcomcs c jstcs pjrskgcs fcg eklrc`k rjokgkojr y `jtjgjr c ugks 3:11 dcgmnjstcgt dcgmn jstcgtjs js (`j ug tktce `j :111) jg ugc vmkejgtc prktjst prktjstc, c, jg ug smdpej jijromomk `j kbsjrvcomÿg. ] sm tj ek jstcbcs prjlugtcg`k, eks dítk`ks okgvjgomkgcejs cpjgcs pjrdmtmjrkg rjokgkojr c ug ùgmok pcrtmompcgtj `j ec rjvujetc. Eks rkbkts pkemoäcs sj fcg okgvjrtm`k jg ugc fjrrcdmjgtc dãs ce sjrvmomk `j eks oujrpks `j ec ejy c gmvje dug`mce lrcomcs c ec eejlc`c `j ec Jrc @mlmtce. _u kbijtmvk js knrjojr cetjrgctmvcs quj okecbkrjg okg eks okgtrkejs `j sjlurm`c` y prjstjg ug sjrvm sj rvmom omk k `j vm vmlm lmecg ecgom omc c jg oc oceeeejs js y oc ocrr rrjt jtjrc jrcss jg js jstr trjo jofc fc oke okecb cbkrc krcom omÿg ÿg ok okg g ec ecss pctrueecs kr`mgcrmcs. Ec sjlurm`c` `j ec omu`c`c omu`c`cgäc gäc js ug tjdc `j cotuce cotucem`c` m`c` ocg`jgt ocg`jgtj. j. Gk sÿek sj trctc `j jstcr sjlurks jg gujstrc vmvmjg`c, smgk tcdbmíg jg gujstrcs omu`c`js, okg ljgtj `jsokgkom`c `jsokgk om`c pcrc gkskt gksktrks. rks. Je äg`moj `j ormdm ormdmgcem` gcem`c` c` jg Jspcóc `urcgtj ec prmdjrc dmtc` `j 213= fc sm`k `j ug ?3,1,