Entendiendo Ciclos

April 22, 2018 | Author: Yovanny Conde | Category: Economic Theories, Economics, Economies, Business, Business (General)
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Sdhréf cdb mkmbh Bf} urkidrf} }k}sdifskwfmkhjd} `djdrfbd} cd bf} ck~dr}f} kj~d}sk`fmkhjd} urd~kf} }hord db mkmbh dmhjýikmh }d bd cdodj f Pd}bd{ Iksmadbb" vtkdj dqut}h if`k}srfbidjsd db cd}frrhbbh mémbkmh" { f ]matiudsdr !6;=;+ vtkdj cdnkjký db /ihcdbh srkmémbkmh/* Bf @rfj Cdurd}kýj hobk`ý f urhntjckwfr bh} d}stckh} mkdjsénkmh} }hord d}sd sdif" udrh tjf ~dw sdrikjfcf bf KK @tdrrf Itjckfb" fb urhctmkr}d bf dqufj}kýj cd tj jtd~h mkmbh bfr`h" }d cd}mtkcý db d}stckh cdb mkmbh { }d bbd`ý f `djdrfbkwfr bf mrddjmkf }d`÷j bf mtfb drf uh}kobd drrfckmfr bf} mrk}k} cdb mrdmkikdjsh dmhjýikmh" kjmbt}h djsrd dmhjhik}sf} sfj jhsfobd} mhih Uftb ]fitdb}hj* Ntdrhj bf dqmdumkýj srfofgh} mhih bh} cd Gfid} Frsatr D}sd{ !6;4>+" Drjd}s Ifjcdb" Gfj Skjodr`dj { ]sfjk}bf~ Idj}aklh~* Bf} kbt}khjd} ckdrhj uf}h f bf rdfbkcfc cd}utë} cd 6;>1 { d}udmkfbidjsd srf} bf mrk}k} kjsdrjfmkhjfb cd 6;0=* Cd}cd bf udr}udmsk~f cd bf /Jtd~f Dmhjhiéf Mbæ}kmf/" _hodrs Btmf} !6;04+ nhritbh tj ihcdbh cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh* Ifjcdb { hsrh} dmhjhik}sf} ifrqk}sf} itbskubkmfrhj }t} fjæbk}k} }hord bf} mrk}k} mémbkmf}* Jtd~h} d kiuhrsfjsd} d}stckh} }hord db mkmbh dmhjýikmh afj }kch urhctmkch} cd}cd djshjmd} { afj f{tcfch f djsdjcdr bf mrk}k} kjsdrjfmkhjfb cd ?556 { bf rdfmsk~fmkýj cd ?55= { jtsrdj db cdofsd }hord db ntstrh cd bf dmhjhiéf itjckfb*

Ihcdbh} of}fch} dj nbtmstfmkhjd} fbdfshrkf} Db kjsdrë} cd bf sdhréf dmhjýikmf jdhbkodrfb }d af cd}ubfwfch cd}cd bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh" vtd fb`tjh} mhj}kcdrfj cdsdrikjk}sf" afmkf db d}stckh cd bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} dmhjýikmf} fbdfshrkf}" ftjvtd }d }k`f t}fjch bf dqurd}kýj mkmbh dmhjýikmh" {f vtd }kdiurd }d af ck}skj`tkch bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} mémbkmf} cd fvtdbbf} d}srkmsfidjsd cdsdrikjfcf}" mhih bf} d}sfmkhjd}* Cdndj}hrd} cd bf sdhréf cd bf} dqudmsfsk~f} rfmkhjfbd} }h}skdjdj vtd jh utdcd dqk}skr jkj`÷j /mkmbh/ cdsdrikjk}sf utd}sh vtd d}h mhjctmkréf f huhrstjkcfcd} cd froksrfgd vtd }dréfj furh~dmafcf} uhr f`djsd} dmhjýikmh} rfmkhjfbd} { uhr sfjsh fmfofréfj mhj bf ckjæikmf cd mkmbh* Bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh kbt}srf dj mfiokh" mýih bf fmstfmkýj cd sfbd} f`djsd} sdrikjf uhr rdnhrwfr bf} mft}f} cd bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} mémbkmf}* ]kj diofr`h" bf }tuh}kmkýj mbæ}kmf h bkodrfb cd vtd bf dmhjhiéf d}sæ mdrmfjf fb dvtkbkorkh" ufrdmd cknémkbidjsd mhiufskobd mhj bf dqk}sdjmkf cd mkmbh}* Uhr sfb rfwýj bf} nhritbfmkhjd} fbsdrjfsk~f} afj ifjsdjkch kjsdrë} { }d afj djnrdjsfch f bf} sdhréf} cdb mkmbh cd}cd db ]k`bh QKQ* F}é mkdrsh} ihcdbh} d}shmæ}skmh} cd idckf iý~kb mhjctmdj f }drkd} sdiuhrfbd} vtd ih}srfcf} dj `rænkmh} itd}srfj nbtmstfmkhjd} }kikbfrd} f bf} ho}dr~fcf} dj }drkd} ak}sýrkmf} rdfbd} cd ~fbhrd} cd kjnbfmkýj" diubdh h kj~dr}kýj* ]d`÷j d}sh} djnhvtd}" d}h} urhmd}h} d}shmæ}skmh} `djdrfj `rænkmh} vtd urd}djsfj if{hr }kikbfrkcfc mhj bf} }drkd} cd skdiuh rdfbd} vtd mtfbvtkdr sdhréf cd mkmbh} of}fcf dj nýritbf} cdsdrikjk}sf}* Dj 6;55 db ifsdiæskmh Bhtk} Ofmadbkdr ! Saëhrkd cd bf }uëmtbfskhj+ urhut}h vtd bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} dj mkdrsh} urdmkh} }d`téfj tj uf}dh fbdfshrkh" }kdjch shsfbidjsd fbdfshrkh} { }kj mhiuhjdjsd} mémbkmh}* ]kdjch tj srfofgh ukhjdrh" db ihcdbh cd Ofmadbkdr nrfmf}ý fb dqubkmfr bf} `rfjcd} nbtmstfmkhjd} mhih bf @rfj Cdurd}kýj* Odjhês Ifjcdborhs !6;>=+" urhut}h tj ihcdbh idghrfch of}fch dj db / ~tdbh cd Bë~{/ !tj mf}h iæ} `djdrfb cd / uf}dh fbdfshrkh/+ vtd fubkmý f bh} urdmkh} cdb fb`hcýj* Db t}h cd bf ck}srkotmkýj cd Bë~{ ot}mý dqubkmfr bf} `rfjcd} nbtmstfmkhjd} dj bh} idrmfch}* Dj 6;;4" ch} né}kmh}" _h}frkh Ifjsd`jf { Dt`djd A* ]sfjbd{" fjfbkwfrhj mdrmf cd tj ikbbýj cd rd`k}srh} cdb idrmfch cd ~fbhrd} cd bh} mkjmh föh} fjsdrkhrd} { urhut}kdrhj db ihcdbh cd ~tdbh cd Bë~{ srtjmfch" fb djmhjsrfr bf ck}srkotmkýj d}sfof f idckh mfikjh djsrd tj uf}dh fbdfshrkh `ft}kfjh { tj ~tdbh cd Bë~{* Sfiokëj djmhjsrfrhj ck}srkotmkhjd} }kikbfrd} kjcdudjckdjsd} cd bf d}mfbf sdiuhrfb" d}sf urhukdcfc cd ftsh}kikbfrkcfc d}sæ f}hmkfcf f ntjmkhjd} nrfmsfbd}* Tj ihcdbh d}shmæ}skmh urdmk}h d}sæ ftj uhr cd}mtorkr}d*

4

Mkmbh dmhjýikmh

Sdhréf cdb mkmbh rdfb  Ufrskdjch cd d}d d}d skuh cd djnhvtd}" djnhv td}" fubkmfch} f nbtmstfmkhjd} cd bf cdifjcf f`rd`fcf" Nkjj D* L{cbfjc { Dcpfrc M* Urd}mhss" `fjfchrd} cdb urdikh Jhodb cd dmhjhiéf cd ?553" afj rdfbkwfch }t} d}stckh} }hord bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh rdfb* ]t} kj~d}sk`fmkhjd} d}sfcé}skmf} { dmhjhiësrkmf} afj udrikskch cdsdrikjfr vtë nfmshrd} h ~frkfobd} }d mhrrdbfmkhjfj ckrdmsf h kj~dr}fidjsd mhj bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} mémbkmf}* Fb`tjf} cd d}sf} ~frkfobd} }hj dqý`djf} h kjctmkcf}" vtd f`tckwfj h }tf~kwfj bf} h}mkbfmkhjd} { utdcdj }dr mhjsrhbfcf} h urh~hmfcf} uhr bf uhbéskmf dmhjýikmf" dj sfjsh hsrf} afmdj ufrsd cdb mfræmsdr ik}ih cd bf `fjfjmkf mfuksfbk}sf { }hj" uhr mhj}k`tkdjsd" ihshrd} cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh" cd}sfmfjch bh} /mahvtd} rdfbd}/ uhr }hord bh} /mahvtd} ihjdsfrkh}/* Fcdiæ}" db djnhvtd cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh rdfb rdmh`d bf ckndrdjmkfmkýj djsrd ntdjsd} cd udrstrofmkýj { idmfjk}ih} cd urhuf`fmkýj" urhutd}sf uhr _f`jfr Nrk}ma f mhikdjwh} cd bf cëmfcf cdb srdkjsf* ]d`÷j db ihcdbh cd L{cbfjc { Urd}mhss" fjsd tj mahvtd nf~hrfobd }hord bf sdmjhbh`éf" db urhctmsh ftidjsfræ" bf cdifjcf cd srfofgh }d dqufjckræ" { db }fbfrkh rdfb }d dbd~fræ" uhrvtd }d kjmrdidjsf bf urhctmsk~kcfc cd bh} nfmshrd}" srfofgh { mfuksfb" af}sf vtd }d kjmtrrf dj tjf fmtitbfmkýj dqmd}k~f cd mfuksfb ctrfjsd db ft`d* Djshjmd} db ft`d uhcéf mhjbbd~fr bf} }dikbbf} cd bf rdmd}kýj* Sdhréf cdb mkmbh rdfb { `rfjcd} cdurd}khjd} cdurd}khjd} Fb`tjh} dmhjhik}sf} cd udj}fikdjsh jdh)mbæ}kmh !Mhbd . Hafjkfj 6;;;" ?555" ?556 . ?55?+ afj tskbkwfch bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh rdfb { }t kj}srtidjsfb ifsdiæskmh { idshchbý`kmh ufrf hnrdmdr tjf dqubkmfmkýj fbsdrjfsk~f f bf @rfj Cdurd}kýj cd 6;?;" vtd `hbudý f D}sfch} Tjkch} { fb rd}sh cdb itjch* ]d cdnkjd tjf `rfj cdurd}kýj mhih tjf mfécf fmtitbfcf cd bf urhctmmkýj rdfb cd iæ} cdb ?5$* Tskbkwfjch bf idshchbh`éf cd bh} mkmbh} dmhjýikmh} rdfbd}" }t} cdndj}hrd} fsrkot{dj fb idjh} tj 35$ cd bf uërckcf cd urhctmmkýj rdfb f tjf ck}ikjtmkýj ort}mf cd bf urhctmsk~kcfc shsfb cd bh} nfmshrd}" fr`tidjsfjch vtd db rd}sh cd dqubkmfmkhjd} hnrdmkcf} dj bf bksdrfstrf d} uhmh }fsk}nfmshrkf* ]d`÷j d}sf béjdf cd udj}fikdjsh" uhcdih} furdjcdr iæ} dj sërikjh cd dmhjhiéf urd`tjsæjchjh} uhr vtë bf urhctmmkýj sfrcý sfjsh skdiuh dj rdmtudrfr}d iæ} vtd uhr vtë }d urhctgh bf mfécf dj bf urhctmmkýj dj urkidr bt`fr*

Nbtmstfmkhjd} nkjfjmkdrf} Hsrf} akuýsd}k} kj}k}sdj dj bh kjdqhrfobd cd bf} nbtmstfmkhjd}* F}é" bf kj~d}sk`fmkýj cd A{ifj Ikj}l{ }d mdjsrý dj bf nrf`kbkcfc nkjfjmkdrf kjsréj}dmf f bf ifrmaf jhrifb cd bf dmhjhiéf { dj bf mhiurdj}kýj cd bf} mrk}k} nkjfjmkdrf}* Ikj}l{ ih}srý mýih d~hbtmkhjf bf kjd}sfokbkcfc cd bh} idrmfch} nkjfjmkdrh} { mýih kjsdrfmmkhjf mhj bf dmhjhiéf* Fb afmdrbh" kjmhruhrý fb`tjh cd bh} afbbfw`h} cd Kr~kj` Nk}adr { hsrh} dmhjhik}sf}* Ikj}l{ cdih}srý vtd dj skdiuh} cd urh}udrkcfc }d cd}frrhbbf tjf dtnhrkf d}udmtbfsk~f ikdjsrf} ftidjsf db ~hbtidj cd mrëcksh" af}sf vtd bh} odjdnkmkh} urhctmkch} {f jh utdcdj uf`frbh" ihidjsh dj vtd bh} kiuf`h} urhctmdj bf mrk}k}* Db rd}tbsfch d} tjf mhjsrfmmkýj cdb mrëcksh" kjmbt}h ufrf fvtdbbf} mhiuföéf} vtd }é utdcdj uf`frbh" ihidjsh dj vtd bf dmhjhiéf djsrf dj rdmd}kýj* Tjf mfrfmsdré}skmf ntjcfidjsfb cd jtd}srf dmhjhiéf/ d}mrkoký Ikj}l{ dj 6;03" /d} vtd db }k}sdif nkjfjmkdrh h}mkbf djsrd bf rhot}sdw { bf nrf`kbkcfc" { d}f h}mkbfmkýj d} ufrsd kjsd`rfjsd cdb urhmd}h vtd `djdrf bh} mkmbh} dmhjýikmh}*/ Ikmrhdmhjhiéf Bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh af }kch iæ} dnkmfw dj bf ubfjknkmfmkýj ikmrhdmhjýikmf" dj bf mtfb fuh{f bf urdufrfmkýj cd bh} d}mdjfrkh} cd `drdjmkf cd rkd}`h { cd }kjmrhjkwfmkýj cd bf kj~dr}kýj" d}udmkfbidjsd dj db mfuksfb cd kjnrfd}srtmstrf vtd fihrskwfobd dj udréhch} bfr`h}" { vtd cdod nkjfjmkfr}d uhr ih~kikdjsh} cd dndmsk~h} dj ÷bskih} föh} cd bf kj~dr}kýj* Fb ubfjknkmfr sfbd} kj~dr}khjd} `rfjcd} d} ÷skb fjskmkufr db mkmbh dmhjýikmh mhih béjdf cd nhjch" ufrf dbkikjfr urh{dmmkhjd} jh rfwhjfobd}" mhih }tuhjdr tj mrdmkikdjsh dquhjdjmkfb mhj}sfjsd*

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Mkmbh dmhjýikmh Urhobdif} cd idckmkýj Fb`tjh} mrkskmfj vtd bf} kj~d}sk`fmkhjd} cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh ikcfj f idjtch db mrdmkikdjsh" t}fjch kjckmfchrd} cdndmsth}h} cd bf urhctmmkýj f`rd`fcf" h db Urhctmsh kjsdrjh ortsh UKO rdfb" vtd jh d} ÷skb ufrf idckr db okdjd}sfr h bf mfbkcfc cd ~kcf cd bf uhobfmkýj* ]d fr`tidjsf vtd af{ tj cd}fgt}sd djsrd bf nhrif mhih udrmkod db d}sfch cd bf }fbtc dmhjýikmf bf if{hréf cd bf `djsd { mhih bh udrmkodj bh} ofjvtdrh} h bh} dmhjhik}sf}* Kjcdudjckdjsdidjsd cd bf} mhj}kcdrfmkhjd} }hord db cd}frrhbbh ifmrhdmhjýikmh f bfr`h ubfwh" bh} dmhjhik}sf} { bh} ofjvtdrh} utdcdj sdjdr rfwýj tskbkwfr db UKO ~drcfcdrh fb d}stckfr bh} mkmbh} dmhjýikmh}* Cd}utë} cd shch" }hj bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} dj db UKO rdfb" jh fvtdbbf} vtd ikcdj db okdjd}sfr" bf} vtd mft}fj mfiokh} dj db diubdh" bf} sf}f} cd kjsdrë}" { bf kjnbfmkýj" d} cdmkr bh} kjckmfchrd} dmhjýikmh} vtd }hj bf urdhmtufmkýj urkjmkufb cd bh} dqudrsh} cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh* Uhr hsrf ufrsd bh} `rfjcd} sdýrkmh} cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh urhuhjdj fb tskbkwfr }drkd} cdb UKO h cd bh} urdmkh}" nkgfr}d iæ} dj kjckmfchrd} mhih bf sf}f cd `fjfjmkf}" db rdjckikdjsh ifr`kjfb cd bf kj~dr}kýj" db kjmrdidjsh cd bf kj~dr}kýj" db rksih cd kjjh~fmkýj" { db ~fbhr f`rd`fch" f bf ahrf cd idckr bf} nbtmstfmkhjd} mémbkmf}*

Bf sdhréf mréskmf cd bh} mkmbh} dmhjýikmh} bfr`h} Bf dqk}sdjmkf cd mkmbh} dmhjýikmh} bfr`h} dj bf ak}shrkf mhj}skst{d tjf sdhréf srfsfcf uhr jtidrh}h} dj bf} mtfbd} bf kjct}srkfbkwfmkýj bbd`fof jtd~h} ufé}d}" whjf} h rfif} cd bf urhctmmkýj { hjcf} bfr`f} cdurd}k~f} dj bf} mtfbd} }d f`hsfof db dndmsh dqubh}k~h cd bf} jtd~f} mhjvtk}sf}* \6Y Dj 6;6= db dmhjhik}sf ahbfjcë} G* ^fj @dbcdrdj" f ufrskr cd bf} ~frkfmkhjd} cd bh} urdmkh}" uh}stbý bf dqk}sdjmkf cd hjcf} bfr`f} { ckh tjf dqubkmfmkýj cd hrcdj kjsdrjh dmhjýikmh" bf nhrifmkýj cd jtd~f} rfif} kjct}srkfbd} h f }t ihcdrjkwfmkýj sdmjhbý`kmf* \?Y ]d mhj}kcdrf fb rt}h Jklhbæk Lhjcræskd~ !61;?)6;=1+ db ntjcfchr { urkidr dquh}kshr }k}sdiæskmh cd bf sdhréf cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh bfr`h* \=Y ]t ck~tb`fchr ntd Gh}dua Fbhk} ]matiudsdr !611=)6;45+* Cd}cd bf sdhréf mréskmf { db ifsdrkfbk}ih ak}sýrkmh ck~dr}h} ftshrd} afj srfsfch bh} mkmbh} dmhjýikmh} { }t} mhj}dmtdjmkf} }hmkhuhbéskmf} itjckfbd}* Fufrdmd dj bf sdhréf cdb skdiuh ak}sýrkmh cd mkmbh bfr`h cd Ndrjfjc Orftcdb !6;5?)6;14+" { dj bh} srfofgh} mhjgtjsh} cd @dhr`d} Ihcdb}lk \3Y \4Y { Pkbbkfi _* Sahiu}hj* \>Y @kh~fjjk Frrk`ak dj }t bkorh Sad Bhj` Spdjskdsa Mdjstr{"\0Y 6;;3 !Db bfr`h }k`bh QQ+ { dj Mafh} fjc @h~drjfjmd \1Y 6;;;" d}mrksh gtjsh mhj Od~drb{ G* ]kb~dr !Mfh} { hrcdj dj db }k}sdif)itjch kj sad Ihcdrj Phrbc ]{}sdi ihcdrjh+ afmd tjf rdkjsdrurdsfmkýj cd bf ak}shrkf cdb mfuksfbk}ih mhih tjf }drkd cd fbsdrjfjmkf} djsrd 'dqufj}khjd} ifsdrkfbd}' h urhctmsk~f} { 'dqufj}khjd} nkjfjmkdrf}'* @kh~fjjk Frrk`ak" it{ kjnbtdjmkfch uhr bf udr}udmsk~f cdb }k}sdif)itjch cd Kiifjtdb Pfbbdr}sdkj" \;Y mhj}srt{d tjf cd bf} sdhréf} cd bh} mkmbh} bfr`h} iæ} mhiubdsf* Fjfbkwf bh} `rfjcd} mkmbh} cd fmtitbfmkýj cd mfuksfb vtd }d kjkmkfræj mhj uh}sdrkhrkcfc fb kiudrkh d}uföhb { uhrst`të}" mhjmrdsfidjsd dj bf} mktcfcd})d}sfch ksfbkfjf} cdb jhrsd chjcd mhikdjwf" ufrf Frrk`ak" db urkidr idrmfjskbk}ih h mfuksfbk}ih idrmfjskb* Udrh }dræj srd} ufé}d} bh} vtd }dfj mfufmd} cd mrdfr { t}fr dj }t odjdnkmkh tjf rdc cd mhidrmkh { nkjfjwf} uhr shch db itjch7 Ahbfjcf" _dkjh Tjkch { D}sfch} Tjkch}* Mfcf tjh cd dbbh} skdjd }t mkmbh cd ad`dihjéf { mfcf mkmbh skdjd tjf urkidrf nf}d cd dqufj}kýj mhidrmkfb" tjf nf}d cd dqufj}kýj nkjfjmkdrf { tjf ÷bskif cd mrk}k} { btmaf ad`diýjkmf mhj hsrf uhsdjmkf vtd rd}tbsfræ f bf uh}srd `fjfchrf*

Sdhréf ft}srkfmf cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh Bf} urkjmkufbd} horf} cd d}sf d}mtdbf" kiuhrsfjsd dj D}sfch} Tjkch} d Kj`bfsdrrf" jh afj }kch srfctmkcf} dj d}uföhb" uhr bh vtd }hj uhmh mhjhmkcf} dj db itjch ak}ufjhafobfjsd* Cd}cd nkjd} cdb }k`bh QKQ bh} ftshrd} urkjmkufbd} cd d}sf d}mtdbf !Dt`dj ~hj Oþai)Ofpdrl" Btcpk` ~hj Ik}d} { Nrkdcrkma ~hj Af{dl+ ut}kdrhj d}udmkfb kjsdrë} dj cdih}srfr bf kiuh}kokbkcfc cdb }hmkfbk}ih { bh} udbk`rh} uhsdjmkfbd} kjadrdjsd} f bf} uhbéskmf} cdb d}sfch cdb okdjd}sfr* Ufrf Af{dl" uhbéskmf} mhih db d}sfobdmkikdjsh cd }d`trh} cd }fbtc h nhjch} cd gtokbfmkýj u÷obkmh} }hj bh} urkidrh} uf}h} vtd bbd~fj afmkf bf uërckcf cd bf bkodrsfc !Sad _hfc sh ]drnchi" 6;33+*

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1

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?5

Sdhréf ft}sréfmf cdb mkmbh dmhjýikmh Ufsrýj hrh Bh} ft}sréfmh} ~dj dj bf} ihjdcf} rd}ufbcfcf} uhr fmsk~h} rdfbd} !skdrrf}" idsfbd} urdmkh}h}" udsrýbdh+ bf }hbtmkýj f bf ifjkutbfmkýj ihjdsfrkf mft}fjsd cd bh} mkmbh} { uhjdj mhih dgdiubh db ëqksh cdb ufsrýj hrh ctrfjsd iæ} cd ?55 föh}"\65Y f}é mhih cd bh} ofjmh} mhj mhdnkmkdjsd 655$ cd rd}dr~f} mhih db Ofjmh cd Æi}sdrcfi h `rfj ufrsd cd bf ofjmf }tkwf* Fb`tjh} }t`kdrdj dvtk~fbdjsd} ihcdrjh} mhih ihjdcf} dbdmsrýjkmf} rd}ufbcfcf} uhr fmsk~h} rdfbd} !@hbcIhjd{" d)ckjfr" udmtjkq" dsm+* Fmt}fj f bh} `hokdrjh} cd tskbkwfr bf mrdfmkýj cd ckjdrh nkfs ufrf dqurhukfr h rdmftcfr" {f vtd bf kbt}kýj ihjdsfrkf udriksd f bh} urkidrh} dj tskbkwfr db ckjdrh rdmkëj mrdfch afmdrbh mtfjch d}sd f÷j ifjskdjd }t ~fbhr" ikdjsrf} vtd bh} ÷bskih} dj rdmkokrbh bh afmdj {f cd~fbtfch uhr bf kjnbfmkýj* Bfidjsfj bf hudrfmkýj cd bh} ofjmh} mdjsrfbd} mhih tjf nhrif cd ubfjknkmfmkýj mdjsrfb cd bf dmhjhiéf vtd mhj}kcdrfj kj}h}sdjkobd f bfr`h ubfwh* \66Y \6?Y Db dgdiubh iæ} tskbkwfch d} db cd bf _d}dr~f Ndcdrfb cd bh} DDTT" mt{h} hogdsk~h} ntjcfmkhjfbd} }hj ch}7 ifjsdjdr db ~fbhr cdb cýbfr { d~ksfr bf} mrk}k} dmhjýikmf}* Bh} ft}srkfmh} !d}udmkfbidjsd _hsaofrc+ futjsfj vtd cd}cd }t mrdfmkýj dj 6;6= bf Ndc jh }ýbh mhjsrkot{ý f mrdfr tjf mrk}k} cd d}mfbf af}sf djshjmd} kjt}ksfcf" Bf @rfj Cdurd}kýj"\6=Y }kjh vtd cd}srt{ý tj ;>$ \63Y cdb ~fbhr cdb cýbfr idckch dj okdjd} rdfbd}* Utdcdj cfr}d otrotgf} d}udmtbfsk~f} kjmbt}h mhj ufsrýj hrh { ofjmf cd rd}dr~f 655$" uhr dgdiubh bf it{ mksfcf stbkuhifjéf\64Y dj Ahbfjcf" udrh db fbmfjmd }kdiurd d} rd`khjfb h }dmshrkfb" {f vtd bh} nhjch} afj cd }fbkr cdb rd}sh cd bf dmhjhiéf* Bf d}sfokbkcfc cd bf of}d ihjdsfrkf kiuh}kokbksf otrotgf} `bhofbd}" db ftidjsh cd urdmkh} dj tj }dmshr }d mhiudj}f mhj bf mfécf dj hsrh}*

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Djbfmd} dqsdrjh}   Sdhréf Sdhréf ft}s ft}sréf réfmf mf cdb cdb ckjdrh ckjdrh !ass !assu7((p u7((ppp* pp*d}dfcd*dct* d}dfcd*dct*fr(}dr~kmkh}(Bkodrsf}(=?X?X_hsaofrc* fr(}dr~kmkh}(Bkodrsf}(=?X?X_hsaofrc* ucn+" uhr Itrrf{ _hsaofrc   Ckjdrh" Ckjdrh" mrëcksh mrëcksh { mkmbh} mkmbh} !assu7((bkorh}*bko !assu7((bkorh}*bkodrsfc drsfcck`ksf ck`ksfb*b*mhi(frskmtbh* mhi(frskmtbh*uau(6?0>?=?>;3+" uau(6?0>?=?>;3+" uhr Gtfj _fiýj _fbbh   Hrh fbifm fbifmdjf djfch ch ~}* hrh hrh dj fmmký fmmkýjj !assu7((p !assu7((ppp* pp* ghr`d~fbkj*mhi(pdobh`(?551(53(   ghr`d~fbkj*mhi(pdobh`(?551(53(  hrh)fbifmdjfch)~})hrh)dj)fmmkj)fjsfb)d*asib+" hrh)fbifmdjfch)~})hrh)dj)fmmkj)fjsfb)d* asib+" uhr Fjsfb D* Ndldsd   Ofjmh Ofjmh mdjsrf mdjsrfbb { mrk}k} mrk}k} ihjdsfr ihjdsfrkf kf !assu7 !assu7((ik} ((ik}d}* d}*hr`(}shr{(?;=5+ hr`(}shr{(?;=5+ !dj kj`bë}+" uhr _hodrs Itrua{" dj Ik}d}*hr`   Db mkmbh mkmbh ft}srkfm ft}srkfmhh !assu7((bf !assu7((bfbko bkodrs drsfc{ fc{bfb bfbd{* d{*phrcurd}}* phrcurd}}*mhi(mrk}k})dmhjhikmf})db)mkmbh)ft}srkfmh(+ mhi(mrk}k})dmhjhikmf})db)mkmbh)ft}srkfmh(+   Bdmmkhjd} Bdmmkhjd} cd Dmhjhiéf Dmhjhiéf !assu7((ppp*gt !assu7((ppp*gtfjcdi fjcdifrkfjf frkfjf*hr`(~kcd *hr`(~kcdh}(663(+" h}(663(+" }drkd }drkd cd ~kcdh} ~kcdh} cd bf} mbf}d} cd dmhjhiéf cdb urhnd}hr Atdrsf cd ]hsh   Bf Sdhréf Ft}srkfmf Ft}srkfmf cdb Mkmbh Mkmbh Dmhjýikmh Dmhjýikmh !assu7((ppp*fjf !assu7((ppp*fjfrmhmf rmhmfuksfbk uksfbk}sf*mhi }sf*mhi(GA]Bdmm (GA]Bdmmkhjd}? khjd}?;* ;*asi-65+" asi-65+" ~écdh} cdb mtr}h cdb Urhnd}hr Atdrsf cd ]hsh dj bf Tjk~dr}kcfc _d{ Gtfj Mfrbh} cd Ifcrkc

Sdhréf cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss Bf Sdhréf cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss cd}frrhbbfcf uhr _fbua Jdb}hj Dbbkhss !6106 ” 6;31+" 6;31+" }d of}f dj db urkjmkukh cd bh} ih~kikdjsh} cd bh} urdmkh} cdb idrmfch nkjfjmkdrh f srf~ë} cd bf} hjcf} vtd bh nhrifj { db d}stckh cd }t nhrifmkýj `rænkmf* D}sæ of}fcf dj bf sdhréf cd Chp { d} tj f~fjmd }k`jknkmfsk~h mhj rd}udmsh f dbbf* Srf} bf itdrsd cd Dbbkhss d}sæ sdhréf vtdcý mf}k dj db hb~kch { föh} iæ} sfrcd ntd F*G* Nrh}s { _hodrs Urdmasdr vtkdj mhj }t bkorh Urkjmkukh cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss  !6;01+ bf akwh uhutbfr*

Sdhréf cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss Iýctbh fbmk}sf 4)=*

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@rænkmh cd bf Sdhréf cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss

D} tjf sdhréf næmkb cd d}vtdifskwfr" udrh f bf ahrf cd bbd~frbf f bf uræmskmf" d} cknémkb cd mhiurdjcdr { cd rdfbkwfr db rdmtdjsh cd bf} hjcf} uhr bf} krrd`tbfrkcfcd} vtd urd}djsfj bh} idrmfch}" rdvtkdrd dqudrkdjmkf dj `rænkmh} nkjfjmkdrh}*

Cd}mrkumkýj cd bf} mkjmh hjcf} vtd mhiuhjdj bf uftsf* Hjcf 67 Bf hjcf 6 rfrfidjsd r frfidjsd ifjknkd}sf }t kjsdjmkýj" }hj uhmh} bh} vtd bf kcdjsknkmfj* Mtfjch bf urkidrf hjcf cd tj jtd~h idrmfch fbmk}sf !cd shrh}+ diukdwf bf} jhskmkf} ntjcfidjsfbd} }hj srdidjcfidjsd jd`fsk~f}* Bf sdjcdjmkf urd~kf d}sæ mhj}kcdrfcf mhih it{ ntdrsd { bh} fjfbk}sf} ntjcfidjsfbd} }k`tdj rd~k}fjch }t} d}skifmkhjd} f bf ofgf" bf dmhjhiéf }d ~d it{ cëokb* Bh} }hjcdh} }hj cdmkckcfidjsd ud}kik}sf}* Fotjcfj bf} humkhjd} /uts/* Bf ~hbfskbkcfc kiubémksf dj db idrmfch cd humkhjd} d} fbsf* Db ~hbtidj utdcd ftidjsfr tj uhmh mhj bf }tokcf cd urdmkh}" udrh jh bh of}sfjsd ufrf fbdrsfr f bh} fjfbk}sf} sëmjkmh}* Hjcf ?7 Bf hjcf ? mhrrk`d f bf hjcf 6 udrh jtjmf }d dqsdjcdræ iæ} fbbæ cdb utjsh cd kjkmkh cd bf hjcf 6* Jhrifbidjsd bf} jhskmkf} }k`tdj }kdjch ifbf}* Mhih bh} urdmkh} ~tdb~dj f fmdrmfr}d fb iéjkih fjsdrkhr sfiokëj ~tdb~d db }djskikdjsh jd`fsk~h" /bf itmadctiord/ ifjskdjd }t udj}fikdjsh cd vtd db idrmfch d}sæ f bf ofgf* Ftj f}é fufrdmdj fb`tjh} }k`jh} uh}ksk~h}7 Db ~hbtidj cdodréf }dr kjndrkhr fb rd`k}srfch dj db cd}frrhbbh cd bf hjcf 6 { db rdsrhmd}h jh cdodréf }dr if{hr cdb >6"1 Nkohjfmmk* Bh} urdmkh} rdsrhmdcdj ctrfjsd d}sf nf}d cd}mrkokdjch tj ufsrhj cd srd} hjcf}* Hjcf =7 Jhrifbidjsd d}sf d} bf hjcf iæ} bfr`f { iæ} uhcdrh}f cd tjf sdjcdjmkf !ftjvtd dj fb`tjf kj~d}sk`fmkýj }d }t`kdrd vtd dj idrmfch} cd ifsdrkf urkif bf hjcf 4 jhrifbidjsd d} bf iæ} `rfjcd+ Bf} jhskmkf} mhikdjwfj f }dr uh}ksk~f} { bh} ntjcfidjsfbd} diukdwfj f rdfbkwfr d}skifmkhjd} cd kj`rd}h}* Bh} urdmkh} }todj ræukcfidjsd { bf} mhrrdmmkhjd} }hj it{ cëokbd}* ]d`trfidjsd fb`tkdj fjcd ot}mfjch tj /utbbofml/ { }d vtdcfræ ntdrf cdb ofrmh* Mtfjch mhikdjwf bf hjcf = d} uh}kobd vtd bf} jhskmkf} }k`fj }kdjch ud}kik}sf} { itmah} kj~dr}hrd} ifjsdj`fj }t} uh}kmkhjd} mhrsf}* ]kj diofr`h f bf fbstrf cdb utjsh idckh cd bf hjcf = !db utjsh cd Urdmasdr+ /bf itmadctiord/ }d tjkræ f bf jtd~f sdjcdjmkf fbmk}sf* Bf hjcf = }tdbd dqsdjcdr}d tj rfskh cd 6*>6176* Hjcf 37 Bf hjcf 3 sfiokëj d} mbfrfidjsd mhrrdmsk~f* Bh} urdmkh} }tdbdj }drudjsdfr ctrfjsd tj udrkhch bfr`h af}sf rdsrhmdcdr db =1"? cd bf hjcf = !jhrifbidjsd d} idjh}+* Db ~hbtidj d} furhqkifcfidjsd db ik}ih vtd bf hjcf =*Uhr d}h }k d}sfih} it{ nfikbkfrkwfch} mhj bf sdhréf kjstéih} vtd d}sd d} tj utjsh d}udmkfbidjsd kiuhrsfjsd ufrf furh~dmafr bf hjcf 4 { }t uhsdjmkfb* Uhr dgdiubh }k cdctmkih} vtd uhcréf }dr dqsdjckcf !d}h vtdcf ntdrf cd d}sd frsémtbh+* Hsrf mfrfmsdré}skmf kiuhrsfjsd d} vtd bf hjcf 3 jhrifbidjsd d} cknémkb cd mhjsdfr*

Sdhréf cd bf} Hjcf} cd Dbbkhss Hjcf 47 Bf hjcf 4 d} db ÷bskih srfih dj bf ckrdmmkýj cd bf sdjcdjmkf chikjfjsd* Bf} jhskmkf} fahrf }hj srdidjcfidjsd uh}ksk~f} { shch db itjch d} huskik}sf* Bfidjsfobdidjsd d}sd djst}kf}ih afræ vtd itmah} kj~dr}hrd} urkjmkukfjsd} mhiurdj gt}sh fjsd} cd bbd`fr f bf mkif* Db ~hbtidj dj bf hjcf 4 d} kjndrkhr f bf hjcf = { itmah} kjckmfchrd} mhikdjwfj f ih}srfr ck~dr`djmkf} !bh} urdmkh} fbmfjwfræj jtd~h} iæqkih} ikdjsrf} bh} kjckmfchrd} jh mhj}k`tdj fbmfjwfr jtd~h} ukmh}+ FB nkjfb cd tj idrmfch fbmk}sf" bh} /h}h}/ }tdbdj }dr rkckmtbkwfch}* _dmhrcdih} mýih ntdrhj rdmkokcf} bf} urd~k}khjd} cd tjf mkif dj ohb}f ctrfjsd db ?555* Hjcf F7 Bf} mhrrdmmkhjd} jhrifbidjsd }hj iæ} cknémkbd} cd kcdjsknkmfr vtd bh} ih~kikdjsh} kiutb}k~h}* Dj bf hjcf F cd tj idrmfch f bf ofgf jhrifbidjsd bf} jhskmkf} ntjcfidjsfbd} }hj shcf~éf uh}ksk~f}* Bf if{hr ufrsd cd bh} fjfbk}sf} ~dj bf mfécf mhih tjf mhrrdmmkýj dj tj idrmfch fbmk}sf shcf~éf fmsk~h* Bh} kjckmfchrd} sëmjkmh} fmhiuföfj f bf hjcf dj }t ih~kikdjsh* ]d kjmrdidjsf db ~hbtidj" bf ~hbfskbkcfc dj bh} idrmfch} cd humkhjd} { uh}kobdidjsd db kjsdrë} dj bh} idrmfch} cd ntstrh} rdbfmkhjfch}* Hjcf O7 Bh} urdmkh} ~tdb~dj f `krfr afmkf frrkof uhr bh vtd itmah} ~dj tjf rdfmsk~fmkýj cdb idrmfch fbmk}sf vtd f÷j jh mrddj fmfofch* Bh} nfikbkfrkwfch} mhj db fjæbk}k} sëmjkmh utdcdj ~dr d}sd ukmh mhih db ahiorh cdrdmah cd bf nk`trf Ahiorh)mfodwf)ahiorh* Db ~hbtidj cdodræ }dr kjndrkhr fb cd bf hjcf F* Bf} jhskmkf} ntjcfidjsfbd} urhofobdidjsd f÷j jh }hj jd`fsk~f}* Hjcf M7 Db urdmkh mfd nhrifjch mkjmh hjcf}* Db ~hbtidj }d ck}ufrf { dj bf }tohjcf = cd bf hjcf {f shch db itjch mhiurdjcd vtd d}sfih} dj tj idrmfch f bf ofgf* Bf hjcf M d} fb idjh} sfj `rfjcd mhih bf F { f idjtch }d dqsdjcdræ dj 6*>61*** h iæ}*

Mréskmf} Bf urdik}f cd vtd bh} idrmfch} }d cd}frrhbbfj dj ufsrhjd} rdmhjhmkobd} dj mhjsrfckmmkýj mhj bf akuýsd}k} cdb idrmfch dnkmkdjsd" vtd ckmd vtd bh} urdmkh} jh }d utdcdj urdcdmkr f ufrskr cd cfsh} cdb idrmfch" mhih bf} idckf} iý~kbd} { db ~hbtidj* Uhr d}sd rfwhjfikdjsh" }k ntdrf uh}kobd rdfbkwfr urd~k}khjd} }hord db idrmfch mhj ëqksh" bh} kj~dr}hrd} mhiurfréfj !h ~djcdréfj+ mtfjch db iëshch urdckgd}d tj ftidjsh cd urdmkh} !h ck}ikjtmkýj+" af}sf db utjsh cd vtd bh} urdmkh} }tokréfj !h mfdréfj+ cd kjidckfsh" cd}srt{djch f}é bf rdjsfokbkcfc { db uhcdr urdckmsk~h cdb iëshch* Dj bh} idrmfch} dnkmkdjsd}" db mhjhmkikdjsh cdb urkjmkukh cd bf} hjcf} cd Dbbkhss djsrd bh} kj~dr}hrd} bbd~fréf f bf cd}fufrkmkýj cd bh} ufsrhjd} vtd srfsfj cd fjskmkufr" bh vtd afmd db iëshch" { shcf} bf} nhrif} cd fjæbk}k} sëmjkmh" kj÷skb* Odjhks Ifjcdborhs af }kch tjh cd bh} mréskmh} f d}sd skuh cd fjæbk}k}* \6Y Bh} mréskmh} sfiokëj ckmdj vtd db urkjmkukh cd bf hjcf d} cdif}kfch ~f`h mhih ufrf }dr ÷skb {f vtd jh }kdiurd }d utdcd kcdjsknkmfr mtæjch diukdwf h sdrikjf tjf hbf" { vtd bf} urd~k}khjd} cd bf} hjcf} cd Dbbkhss }hj urhudj}f} f bf rd~k}kýj }togdsk~f { fmkdjsénkmf* \?Y

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613? ” 61;0 61;0

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6;=; ” 6;1?8 6;1?8

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=6 6;1?8 ” 88

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