Ensayo Economia Internacional Post Pandemia

 

LFZZIZF8 OCLI@LCFTYZF I@ LCI@LCF\ FDMC@C\TZFTCQF S KIZI@LCFOI\ LFTIDZF8 AC@F@XF\ S ILE@EMCF C@TIZ@FLCE@FO ^IZCEDE8 :>:> C TZCMI\TZI RCC \ILLCÜ@8 T^:; ^ZEAI\EZF8 OCL. MEZIOOF LBCTTS

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C`tikrf`tis8

Zedríkuiz ^frcs, Ocsittc Mfríf L.C.Q-1.:;>.:>

 

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I` io le`tixte mu`dcfo, i` io qui of pf`dimcf lfusfdf per io Levcd-63 bf prepclcfde u`f lrcscs di krf`dis dcmi`sce`is qui failtf sejri tede f oes silteris mæs vuo`irfjois di ofs selcidfdis. Io mu`de bf suarcde u` lfmjce rfdclfo, fberf istfmes ari`ti f u`f oøkujri rifocdfd, i` of qui io lrilcmci`te ixpe`i`lcfo dio le`tfkce sck`caclf qui, i` luistcü` di peles dífs, 6>>  pirse`fs c`ailtfdfs pfsf` f sir 6>.>>>. Træk Trækcl clfm fmi` i`ti ti,, si istæ istæ`` pird pirdci ci`d `dee mulb mulbfs fs vcdf vcdfss bumf bumf`f `fss y io vcru vcruss le`t le`tc` c`øf øf  prepfkæ`desi vioezmi`ti per io mu`d mu`de. e. Ti`imes u`f c`mi`sf diudf di krftctud lle` e` oes  preaisce`fois mãdcles y oes sirvclces di selerre di prcmirf oí`if qui istæ` trfjfhf`de c`aftckfjoimi`ti pfrf sfovfr vcdfs. \i trftf di u`f lrcscs sc` prilidi`tis. I` prcmir oukfr, io sbelg is i`ermi. Of pãrdcdf dio predulte rioflce`fdf le` istf imirki`lcf sf`ctfrcf y le` ofs le`sckuci`tis midcdfs di le`ti`lcü` ilocpsf per lempoite ofs pãrdcdfs qui disi`lfdi`fre` of lrcscs ac`f`lcirf mu`dcfo. I` siku`de oukfr, fo ckufo qui i` u`f kuirrf e u`f lrcscs peoítclf, of c`lirtcdumjri ric`f`ti i` ter`e f of durflcü` y of c`ti`scdfd dio sbelg is pirscsti`ti y sivirf. I` tirlir  oukfr, i` ofs fltufois lcrlu`stf`lcfs, of peoítclf ile`ümclf bf di disimpiöfr u` pfpio muy dcairi`ti. I` lrcscs `ermfois, ofs futercdfdis i`lfrkfdfs di ofs peoítclfs prelurf` cmpuosfr  of fltcvcdfd ile`ümclf istcmuof`de of dimf`df fkrikfdf oe mæs pre`te pescjoi. Istf viz, of lrcscs is le`silui`lcf i` krf` pfrti di ofs `ilisfrcfs midcdfs di le`ti`lcü`. Iste sck`caclf qui istcmuofr of fltcvcdfd is u`f tfrif fø` mæs lempoclfdf y, fo mi`es i` io lfse di oes silteris mæs failtfdes, `c scqucirf is foke rilemi`dfjoi. \ikø` ofs preyillce`is, io Krf` Le`ac`fmci`te, leme lfjríf di`emc`froe, prevelfræ u`f dræstclf le`trfllcü` le`trfllcü` dio lrilcmci`te lrilcmci`te mu`dc mu`dcfo. fo. ^frf :>:6 si preyilt preyiltff u`f rilupirflcü`  pfrlcfo, le` tfsfs di lrilcmci`te supirceris f of ti`di`lcf, pire le` u` `cvio dio ^CJ qui  pirmf`iliræ per dijfhe di of ti`di`lcf privcf fo vcrus, y le` mulbf c`lirtcdumjri i` luf`te fo vcker di of rilupirflcü`. ^isi f of krfvidfd di ofs lcrlu`stf`lcfs, bfy mulbfs rfze`is pfrf io eptcmcsme. I`  pfísis qui bf` suarcde jretis cmpertf`tis, of c`lcdi`lcf di of i`airmidfd bf dcsmc`ucde trfs of fdeplcü` di istrcltfs præltclfs di dcstf`lcfmci`te selcfo. Io rctme sc` prilidi`tis fo qui fvf fvf`zf` `zf` ofs c`v c`vist istckf ckflce lce`is `is sejr sejrii trf trftfm tfmci` ci`tes tes y vfl vflu`fs u`fs tfm tfmjcã jcã`` is met metcve cve di ispirf`zf. Ofs ræpcdfs i cmpertf`tis midcdfs di peoítclf ile`ümclf fdeptfdfs i` mulbes pfísis fyudfræ` f pretikir f ofs pirse`fs y f ofs imprisfs, ivctf`de fsí dcacluotfdis ile`ümclfs mæs sivirfs y si`tf`de ofs jfsis pfrf of rilupirflcü`.

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^rejfjoimi`t ^rejfjo imi`tii of ø`clf lirtizf sejri of lrcscs koejfo lfusfdf per io lere`fvcrus lere`fvcrus is qui `e is u` timf di lerte pofze, sc`e qui pedríf` pfsfr misis, i c`louse föes, f`tis di qui veovfmes f foke pfrilcde f of `ermfocdfd. Dipi`dci`de di of durflcü` y of preau`dcdfd di of lr lrcs cscs cs ile ile`ü `ümc mclf lf,, si pre predu dulc lcræ ræ`` lf lfmj mjce cess au au`df `dfmi mi`t `tfo fois is i` of ofss dc dc`æ `æmc mclf lfss di oe oess mirlfdes, tf`te di le`sume leme di predullcü`. \i bf le`virtcde i` u` oukfr lemø` facrmfr qui io mu`de `e veoviræ ̆  f sir io mcsme dispuãs di istf pf`dimcf, tf`te per oes cmpfltes sf`ctfrces y ile`ümcles, leme per ofs peoítclfs pøjoclfs sc` prilidi`tis qui si istæ` dcsiöf`de i cmpoimi`tf`de f `cvio mu`dcfo pfrf mctckfr oes iailtes dio LEQCD-63.

I` midce di of c`lirtcdumjri i` of qui `es i`le`trfmes dijcde f of fpfrclcü` dio lere`fvcrus, is muy dcaílco bflir istcmflce`is di lrilcmci`te ile`ümcle. \c` imjfrke, mæs fooæ di `ømires ispilíacles qui lfmjcf` le`stf`timi`ti, prc`lcpfomi`ti pfrf pier, oe lcirte is qui istfmes f`ti u`f riliscü` koejfo qui pfrilcirf sir muy preau`df, pire fpfri`timi`ti di lerte pofze, fu`qui dihfræ lclftrclis. Bfstf fberf, f `cvio mu`dcfo, oes silteris mæs failtfdes bf` scde io futemetrcz, oes sirvclces lemirlcfois y preaisce`fois, oes betiois y io huike, of c`dustrcf dio i`triti`cmci`te, ofs vi`tfs fo ditfooi, of i`irkíf, y of c`dustrcf fireispflcfo y di diai`sf. ^er io le`trfrce, bfy foku`es silteris qui si bf` disimpiöfde rioftcvfmi`ti jci`8 jf`les, sikures, fomfli`fmci`te y imjfofhi y sirvclces e`oc`i.

Istfmes i` tirrcterce disle`elcde, de`di oes kejcir`es bf` istfde temf`de dilcsce`is f u` rc rctm tmee ari ari`ã `ãtc tcle le,, sc` sc` mu mulbe lbe tc tcim impe pe pf pfrf rf ria riaoi oixc xce` e`fr fr e pof` pof`ifr ifr,, i` i`ari ari`t `tæ`d æ`desi esi f dilcsce`is merfois lempoihfs. Of le`ixcü` i`tri mflreile`emíf y sfoud pøjoclf `e is ivcdi`ti, oe qui lempoclf f`foczfr tedes oes isli`frces pescjois, y ofs dcslusce`is sejri eplce`is di peoítclf mflreile`ümclf si bf` li`trfde i` oes pfísis disfrreoofdes. Y` timf cmpertf`ti is lüme siræ of rilupirflcü` (si bf bfjofde di aermf di Q, [ e O)7 `e ejst ej stf` f`ti ti,, df dfdf df of kr krfdu fdufo focd cdfd fd di of di disis sislfo lfofd fdf, f, y of pe pesc scjo joii pãrdc pãrdcdf df di lfpfl lfpflcd cdfd fd <

 

 predultcvf, pfrilcirf pfr ilcirf qui siræ oi`tf y prejfjoimi`ti `e veovfmes fo mcsme `cvio di f`tis di of pf`dimcf f`tis di mulbe tcimpe.

Fmãrclf Oftc`f `e islfpf f istf rifocdfd, y istf lrcscs fdimæs ooikü i` u` mfo memi`te. Of rikcü` tuve u` disimpiöe ile`ümcle midcelri i` :>63, le` u` lrilcmci`te dio ^r ^redu edult ltee C`t C`tir` ir`ee Jr Jrut utee (^ (^CJ) CJ) di fp fpi` i`fs fs io >, >,6% 6%,, si sikø` kø` dfte dftess di of Le Lemc mcsc scü` ü` Ile`üm Ile `ümclf clf pfrf Fmãrcl Fmãrclff Oft Oftc`f c`f (LI (LI^FO ^FO). ). F`t F`tis is di of crr crruplc uplcü` ü` dio LEQ LEQCD-6 CD-63, 3, of ixpf`scü` preyiltfdf pfrf of rikcü` i` :>:> irf u` mfkre 6,63, u` :> is drfmætclf. \ikø` of Erkf`czflcü` Mu`dcfo di Lemirlce (EML) io lemirlce koejfo si i`lui`trf i`tri u` 62/of -ile`ümclf-pest-pf`dimcf 

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