E Inferencial2 2

 

MXPD@ÉXPJHD JFAM_MFHJDC JJDH== Dcuife7 Ardflcjf @dfjmc Hdrodgdc Esjs Hø`jke7 4>>14?>42? Pmid7 ^rumod `m bjpøtmsjs pdrd ufd im`jd f68>.

]fjvmrsj`d` Fdhjefdc Gesê Idréd Drkum`ds _MX]CPD@E @MC MRDIMF @M D@IJXJEF HM^_M ?>41 - JJ D@IJFJXP_DHJØF @M MI^_MXDX HE@JK F· E D^MCCJ@EX 4 0>??4O DCCHD ^D_@E ? 0>4?1O B]DXHE _DZI]F@E

FEIO_MX LD_MF @DZDFD CMZ@Z JXDOMC

8 0 = 1 ; 2 : 4> 44 4? 48 40

0>40=O 0>88>O 0>?;?O 0>?24O 0> 0>4= 4=1O 1O 0>?2?O 0>422O 0>844O 0>8?:O 0>?28O 0>84>O 0>4?0O

T]JX^M D_MFDX DF@JD HBDQMW QD_KDX K]JCCMF ZD]_JX B]DIDF DC DCD_ D_HE HEF F ^DCE ^DCEIJ IJFE FE HBJ^DFD MFHJXE IDZPDF B]DIDF ^D_@E HMFPMFE DZT]J^D ^DXPE_ AD_ADF DCB]DZ CJID CMW]F@M QD_KDX QD_KDX

4 4= 1 4; 42 4: ?> ?4 ?? ?8 ?0 ?= ?1 ?; ?2 ?:

0 0> >4 ?2 >0 1O O 0>4:0O 0>428O 0>848O 0> 0>4> 4>=O =O 0>4;4O 0>?>8O 0>4; 0>4;1 1O 0>8?8O 0>881O 0>440O 0>?01O 0>4> 0>4>4 4O 0>8>1O

B ^M]HDMX_HEEX EQ_ME FXMHKEDX X]_J XECDFE PJPE JFADFWEF D_EB]JCCHD B]DIDF KEIM KEIMWW KD_H KD_HJD JD EIEFPM W]ÔJKD E_EXHE OD]PJXPD DCCH DCCHH HDB]D DB]DI IDF HH HHE_D E_DB]D B]D HD__JEF HH H HE_JIDFZD HMFPMFE W]ÔJKD IM@JFD _JHBD_PM EXHHE XECDFE _EGDX EGDX T]J ]JX^ X^MM ]PDFJ HHDB]DFD

^]F ^] FPD PDGM GM HEF EF@J @JHJ HJØF ØF ?>= 42>

JFK_MXE JFK_MXE

CJCJDFD FEMIJ Z]IZ OMPWDOM ID_JOMC ID@M ID@MCM CMJF JFMM @DZXM G]CJXXD @DQJ@ FMIMHJE G]FJE_ DCMR GDQJM_ LD_EC EAMCJD _DADMC _JHD_@E

42> 4;> 4;> 4;> 41= 41= 41= 41= 41> 41> 41> 41>

JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

_ KJBHMB_DX_X@Z MD@OJ_XDEBFDI Z]@JPB GBEXMCJF XD@JPB PDPJDFD C] C]JX JX AM_F AM_FDF DF@E @E _DZIJM DQJPD M_JHL GBDIJC [JC [JCOM OM_ _ ADOJ ADOJÔB ÔBE E KJDFID_HE ID_HE DFPEFJE FMCJ@D FEMIJ CJXXMPB @JDFD _EFD _EFDCC@JÔ JÔE E ADFFZ

4= == = 4 4== 4== 4=> 4=> 4=> 4=> 40= 40= 40= 40= 40=

FE E JJF FK K_ _MMXXE E F FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

40= 40=

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

 

8> 84 8? 88 80 8= 81

0>40?O 0>4?>O 0>?=?O 0>4;;O 0>?4;O 0>88=O 0>40>O

QMCDXT]M _EGDX HBJ_HHD ^DCEIJFE ID_JÔE E_PJW I]ÔEW ^M@_DWD F]ÔMW ^JFMCE T]JX^M T]JX^M _DIJ_MW KDIOED

A_DZ DFPBEFZ FDJWD _EXDCJD XDF@_D AM_FDF@E DCMR IJCD@Z HJMCE IDF]MC AM__MZ DCHJ@MX [DCPM_

40= 40> 40> 40> 40> 40> 40>

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

8; 82 8: 0> 04 0? 08 00 0= 01 0; 02 0: => =4 =? =8 =0 == =1 =; =2 =: 1> 14

0>42=O 0>884O 0>8?=O 0>?;;O 0>4:4O 0>?0=O 0>4=;O 0>?;=O 0>48:O 0>4:1O 0>41?O 0>41>O 0>?;8O 0>?0?O 0>?4:O 0>?=4O 0>?21O 0>?1?O 0>?;2O 0>4= 0>4== =O 0>?:8O 0>?:?O 0>4?:O 0>4:=O 0>414O

]PDFJ HHDHHZD A_DFHE B]DIDF ^DCEIJFE ACE_MX T]JX^M DQMF@DÔE _DIEX CDKEX XDCDWD_ HE_@EQD XEPE B]DIDF PE_OJXHE QD_KDX B]DIDF B] B]DHB]QJCHD CEWDFE ACE_MX ^DCEIJFE K]PJM__MW ^JCCDHD GE_KM T]JX^M CDKE XDIDFMW XDCDWD_ B]DFDHE PE__MX CMK]JD ID_JÔE CM_W]F@M PE__MX CJID QDXT]MW CE^MW HD__DXHE IDCCI DCCID D HD_PE D_PECJ CJF F T]JX^M ^JHBJB]D _JQDX H HE EFP_M_DX PDJ^M HBJ^DFD DHEXPD K]JWD@E DCCHHD D]HHD^]ID

Z]@JP DFDCZ AM_IJF G]FJE_ DCMRDF@M_ _E@_JKE DOMC @DQJ@ GEXM CMEFJ@DX ZDFMP Z]CJXD DFJPD _]PB IJCMFM GDHLMCJFM IJCDK_EX ZDT]MCJF DIMCJD GMXXJHD ZDXIJCZ OMDP_JW ID_Z ID_ GBEF MCJDX [DC@JID_ ZDFMP G] G]DF DF BM_FDF ID_HMCJFD _ECDF@E DIDF@D ID_CMFZ

40> 48= 48= 48= 48= 48= 48= 48= 48> 48> 48> 48> 48> 48> 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?= 4?> 4?>

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

1? 18 10 1= 11 1; 12 1: ;> ;4 ;? ;8

0>?42O 0>?::O 0>4:>O 0>?4=O 0>?;:O 0>?=8O 0>444O 0>?0>O 0>?>=O 0>?14O 0>??>O 0>4::O

HEFP_M_DX ^D]HHD_ B]DIDF B]DCCHHD T]JX^M _EGDX _EXDCMX DPDE PDCDQM_DFE _EGDX D_DFK]JFD HB HBJT]JCCDF HHE_JXEFHHE DCCHHD AM_FDF@MW A_DFHE B]DIDF EXHHE QDXT]MW B] B]DHB]B]JCCHD ADCHEF HB]FK]JCCE B]D_DHD B]DZCCDX

_JFD GJIMFD _EHJE H_JXPBJDF DCMRDF@_D QDCM_JD JFMP B]DC@J_ ID_HE DFPEFJE DIMCJD C]JX DF DFKMC FEMIJ ZMFJAM_ WDZ@D CJHMPB

4?> 4?> 4?> 4?> 4?> 44= 44= 44= 44= 44= 44> 44>

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

MPI BDJCCZJDDM_@DJHPMBCCZ

4 44 4> >

F FE E JJF FK K_ _MMXXE E

; CJCDBF]EDD ;0 = 0 0> >? 4= ;= :O O I T]DJRXJ^I MJD Z CAD_E

 

;1 ;; ;2 ;: 2> 24 2?

0>?>;O 0>??0O 0>4:8O 0>481O 0>?41O 0>??1O 0>?>2O

HMQDCCEX BM__M_D KDIOED KEFWDCMX EO_MKEF _EIM_E T]JX^M ^DCEIJFE _JFHEF OD]PJXPD D_DFKE _JQDX HD_@MFDX HBET]MIDT]J

G]DF XM_D^JE DW]HMFD ACE_ FDPDCZ FDB]I GBMFM_XEF LD_CD K]XPDQE

4>= 4>= 4>= 4>= 4>= 4>> 4>>

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

28 20 2= 21 2; 22 2: :> :4 :? :8 :0 := :1 :; :2 :: 4> > 4> 4 4> ? 4> 8 4> 0 4> = 4> 1 4> ; 4> 2 4> : 44 >

0>4:2O 0>?88O 0>42;O 0>8>>O 0>424O 0>?00O 0>48;O 0>8>:O 0>?:=O 0>?:1O 0>8>8O 0>41=O 0>4:?O 0>?44O 0>?8?O 0>4;8O 0>?8:O

HBJCJFKDFE ^D ^DCEIJFE K]JWD@E DCD_HEF IM@JFD FECDXHE ^DCEIJFE KD KDIOED T]JX^M ^EHHE T]JX^M X]^ÔE _EGDX B]DIDF _EIDF _DIJ_MW XJCQM_D HHEZHHD XECDFE T]JX^M QD_KDX AD_ADF ZDFDB]DIDF KDCCMKEX Z]^DFT]J _E@DX DOD_HD OD_OEWD D_HM CJIDHBJ HEF@E_J CMK]JD K]JWD@E B]DIDF

CJWOMPB O_ZDF @JMKE _EXDCJF@D MXPBM_ FJCPEF M@JXEF DCMRDF@M_ CM@M_XEF G]CJXXD Z]C] _]PB WE_DJ@D H_JX^JF GEMC @DQJ@ [JC@M_ _M _MZFDF ZMFJ @DQJ@ GMFFZ CJWOMPB O_JXDJ@D ZDFMPB

4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> 4>> := := := :=

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

:=

FE JFK_MXE

:=

FE JFK_MXE

:=

FE JFK_MXE

:=

FE JFK_MXE

:=

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

0> 0>8? 8??O ?O B]DI B]DIDF DF T]JX T]JX^M ^M

GEXM GEXM QJ_K QJ_KJC JCJE JE

0>4?;O ^DCEIJFE A_DFHE

MXPBM_ ZMXMFJD

0>4;>O _JFHEF CJID

ID_JD DFPEFJD

0>41 0>418 8O _EGDX EGDX T]J ]JX^ X^MM

G] G]CJ CJE E HMXD_ MXD_

0>4=?O _EIM_E HBJCJFKDFE

LMF@Z

0>??2O D_EB]JCCHD B]DIDF

CE]_@MX

0>?=0O OMFJPMX Z]PE

CMPJHJD

0>41;O HD__JEF K]WIDF

_EXDCJF@D

0>?2;O B]DIDF HBJT]JCCDF

HD_ECJFD

0>?=1O B]DIDF IDZPDF

KJXMCD

0>84;O B]DXHE ^JHBJB]D

CJXOMP

44 4 0>?>:O C]@MÔD ^DCEIJFE

FDZC]

 

44 ? 44 8 44 0 44 = 44 1 44 ; 44 2 44 : 4? > 4? 4 4?

0>842O FDQD__E D__JECD

ACE_ GDFMPB

0>480O EXHHE DPDE

_MZFDC@E

0>?18O T]JFPDFD HDODCCM_E

DFD ID_JD

0>42:O T]JFPDFD IM_JFE

XEHMCZ

0>841O QD_KDX IDP]PM

[JCIM_

0>4=>O HBJCJFKDFE IE_DCMX

DFDOMC DFP]DFM

0>402O B]DIDF ^M_MW

FDFHZ

0>?>>O EXHHE B]D_HDZD

_DZ@D

0>8>0O ^JCCDHD GDFDI^D

G]DF HD_CEX

0>4:;O _JEX IM_JFE

_EFDC@E DCHJQJD@MX

? 4? 8 4? 0 4? = 4? 1 4? ; 4? 2 4?

0>8?4O _EGDX DCB]DZ

M_FMXPE

0>?8;O XDHHDHE HDHM_MX

_DT]MC

0>84=O HDHM_MX IE_DCMX

DFD ID_JD

0>8>?O H]XJ HBJ^DFD

CME@DF @DFFZ

0>?;>O K]JCCM_B]D K]JCCMF

CE]_@MX GMFFZ

0>?1=O B]DHB]B]JCCHD B]D B]DIDF

CJWOMPB

0>?:4O ID_PJFMW MF@M_JHD

@JFDC]W

: 48 > 48 4 48 ? 48 8 48 0 48 = 48 1 48

0>?12O B]D_DHD HDFHBD_J

[JCOM_ DCA_M@E

0>?08O XEPE PMCCE

_]PB FDPDCZ

0>8>;O QD_KDX HEFP_M_DX

C]W ID_JOMC

0>4?4O QM_KD_D @]_DF@

HD_CD CJW ADOJECD

0>8>=O B]DIDF HMFPMFE

ID_KEPB GDHLMCJFM

0>?2:O CJW]F@M EXHHE

GEXM KDO_JMC

0>?1:O ID]HDZCCM DC DCCHHD

IDK@DCMFD MC MCJWDOMPB

0>?=;O ]PDFJ PMCCE 0> 0>4> 4>0O 0O MX MXHD HDCD CDFP FPMM HE_E HE_EFM FMCC

CJHMFJD IMCH IMCH_J _JXP XPE E

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

:>

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2=

FE JFK_MXE

2>

FE JFK_MXE

2>

FE JFK_MXE

2>

FE JFK_MXE

2>

FE JFK_MXE

2>

FE JFK_MXE

;=

FE JFK_MXE

;=

FE JFK_MXE

;=

FE JFK_MXE

;=

FE JFK_MXE

;>

FE JFK_MXE

;>

FE JFK_MXE

;>

FE JFK_MXE

;> 1=

FE JFK_MXE FE JFK_MXE

 

; 48 2 48 : 40 > 40 4 40 ? 40 8 40 0 40 = 40 1 40 ;

0>4;2O K]JD QJCHBMW

C]W ID_JFD

0>4>;O QJCCMKDX @D @DIJDFE

MCJWDOMPB

0>??:O B]DIDF ^M_MW

MCJXD

0>4?8O ^DB]D_D ^JHBJB]D

ID_JXMCD

0>41:O ^D_JEFD T]JX^M

HD_IMF _MZFD

0>408O QD_KDX QD_KDX

DCMRDF@M_

0>442O QJHMFPM EXHHE

CMJ@J QDFMXXD

0>404O KD_AJDX DZDCD

ZECDF@D

0>8?1O T]JX^M MXCDHBJF

OMFGDIJF

0>?8>O XDFHBMW QM_D

ID_JD C]JXD

1=

FE JFK_MXE

1=

FE JFK_MXE

1>

FE JFK_MXE

1>

FE JFK_MXE

1>

FE JFK_MXE

1>

FE JFK_MXE

1>

FE JFK_MXE

==

FE JFK_MXE

==

FE JFK_MXE

0=

FE JFK_MXE

Jfaerim `m rmsuimf `m ^]FPDGM ^rumod `m feridcj`d` `m Df`mrsef-@drcjfk D-hud`rd`e Qdcer p Im`jd @msv. Mst. Qdrjdfzd Dsjimtr éd Hurtesjs F Iéfjie 4mr hudrtjc Im`jdfd 8mr hu hudr tjc Iäx jie

1>

:>

4?>

4=>

42>

?4>

>. :4 >.>?> 448. 4> 84.20 4>48. 24 >. ?410 ;> ;> ->. =08;?; 40 ; 0 =.>> :>.>> 44>.>> 40 >.>> ?>=.>>

Jftmrvdce `m hefajdfzd `m :=% pdrd cd im`jd 4>;.:4 442.?: Jftmrvdce `m hefajdfzd `m :=% pdrd cd im`jdfd 4>>.>>

4?>.>>

Jftmrvdce `m hefajdfzd `m :=% pdrd cd `msvjdhjøf mstäf`dr ?2.=;

Jftmrvdces `m hefajdfzd `m :=% Im`jd

Im`jdfd

4>>

4>=

44>

W `m ufd iumstrd7 ^]FPDGM

44=

4?>

8=.:1

 

^rumod `m γ 9 44> vs. 6 44> Cd `msvjdhjøf mstäf`dr supumstd 9 84.20

      Qdrjdocm ^]FPDGM

F 40;

Im`jd 448.4>

@msv.Mst. 84.20

Mrrer mstäf`dr `m cd im`jd ?.18

Céijtm jfamrjer `m :=% 4>2.;2

W 4.42

^ >.44: 6 >.>= (DB>)

4. ^c ^cdf dftm tmdi dies es cd bj bjpø pøtm tmsj sjs7 s7

B>7 Ces mstu`jdftms `m cd HM^_M ]FDGID ?>41-? `m cd hdrrmrd d`ijfjstrdhjøf `m miprmsds fe mfmf ufd hdcjahdhjøf d`mhud`d, u3944>. Bd7 Ces mstu`jdftms `m cd HM^_M ]FDGID ?>41-? `m cd hdrrmrd `m d`ijfjstrdhjøf `m miprmsds mfmf ufd hdcjahdhjøf d`mhud`d, u644>. ?. Mcmkji Mcmkjies es mc mc fjvmc fjvmc `m sjkfja sjkfjahdf hdfhjd hjd77

Fjvmc `m sjkfjahdfhjd (dcd) 9 >.>= Fjvmc `m hefadfzd 9 >.:=

8. Bdccdi Bdccdies es Wp Wp e Pt (Qd (Qdcer cer `m tdocds tdocds)7 )7

]cjzdies Wp perqum f68>7 ^drd W(4-dcd)< dcd9>.>= y krdahd ufjcdtmrdc `mrmhbd W(>.:=)7 Wp94.10= 0. Bdccdi Bdccdies es mc mc Wh (Qd (Qdcer cer mst mstd`é d`ésh she)7 e)7

Wh9 (R-u)/(s/(fV4/?))9(448.4>-44>)/(84.;8/(40;V4/?))94.42> =. _mkc _mkcd d `m `m `mh `mhjs jsjø jøf7 f7

 

]fjcdtmrdc `mrmhbd7 Wp94.10= Wh94.42> (Dhmptdies B>) 1. Jftm Jftmrp rprm rmtd tdhj hjøf øf y darid daridhj hjøf øf77

B>7 Ces mstu`jdftms `m cd HM^_M ]FDGID ?>41-? `m cd hdrrmrd d`ijfjstrdhjøf `m miprmsds fe mfmf ufd hdcjahdhjøf d`mhud`d, u3944>. (Dhmptdies B>) Bd7 Ces mstu`jdftms `m cd HM^_M ]FDGID ?>41-? `m cd hdrrmrd `m d`ijfjstrdhjøf `m miprmsds mfmf ufd hdcjahdhjøf d`mhud`d, u644>. (_mhbdzdies Bd) Daridhjøf7 Mxjstm suahjmftm mvj`mfhjd mstd`éshd pdrd hefhcujr qum ces mstu`jdftms `m cd

HM^_M ]FDGID ?>41-? `m cd hdrrmrd d`ijfjstrdhjøf d `ijfjstrdhjøf `m miprmsds fe mfmf ufd hdcjahdhjøf d`mhud`d mf mc fjvmc `m sjkfjahdfhjd `mc >.>1. >.> 1.