Dinamica Del Desempleo

 

“Sghvcrshkfk Gfbhjgfl kcl Bcgtrj kcl Qcrÿ‐ 

Qlfg kc tcshs

“Cstukhj sjerc lf khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl kcl kcsc`plcj cg Qcrÿ? 511>-5151‐ Qrcscgtfkj pjr?

Efrzjlf Kc lf Bruz, Ofz`àg Qèrcz Qhgj, Omcysjg Rc`cstrc

^HHH

Mufgbfyj, Qcrÿ ‒ 5156

 

6. Kcnhghb Kcnhghbhòg hòg kcl kcl tc`f tc`f y/j prje prjelc` lc`f f f hgvcsthi hgvcsthifrsc frsc [c`f?

Khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cg cl Qcrÿ sciÿg æ`ehtj icjirænhbj? Srefgj Qcrhjkj?

511>-5151 Qlfgtcf`hcgtj kcl prjelc`f

Rciÿg cl HGCH (5116), cl kcsc`plcj cs ugj kc ljs tc`fs kc kceftc `æs h`pjrtfgtcs cg rclfbhòg fl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj. f pcsfr kc cstf h`pjrtfgbhf, lf khsbushòg fbfkè`hbf gj mf llcifkj fÿg f ghvclcs `uy sjnhsthbfkjs y lf `fyjr pfrtc kc ljs cstukhjs kcsfrrjllfkjs cg gucstrj `ckhj sc mfg bjgbcgtrfkj cg lf kcsbrhpbhòg kc cstc ncgò`cgj, `æs fug, lf `fyjr  pfrtc kc lfs rcncrcgbhfs rcncrcgbhfs khspjghelcs khspjghelcs sc mfg bjg bjgbcgtrfkj bcgtrfkj cg ccll fgælhshs kc lf tfsf tfsf kc kcsc`plcj kcsc`plcj fehcrtj, kc f`plhj usj hgtcrgfbhjgfl y quc cs ug hgkhbfkjr cstæthbj. Cstf `hs`f hgsthtubhòg, gjs `cgbhjgf quc lf Qjelfbhòg cg Ckfk kc [rfefofr (QC[) cg cl Qcrÿ, sc cstfelcbhò cg 6; föjs bj`j ckfk `àgh`f. Lf QC[ sc suekhvhkc cg Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Cbjgò`hbf` cgtc Fbthvf ((QCF) QCF) j tf`ehèg “Nucrzf kc [rfefoj‐ y Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf` Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc cgtc Hgfbthvf (QCH). Lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Fbthvf (QCF) cs lf jncrtf kc `fgj kc jerf cg cl `crbfkj kc trfefoj y cstæ bjgsthtuhkf pjr cl bjgougtj kc pcrsjgfs, quc bjgtfgkj bjg lf ckfk `àgh`f cstfelcbhkf (6; föjs cg cl bfsj kcl Qcrÿ), jnrcbcg lf `fgj kc jerf khspjghelc  pfrf lf prjkubbhòg prjkubbhòg kc ehcgc ehcgcss y/j scrvhbhjs kurfg kurfgtc tc ug pcràjkj kc rcncrcgbhf kctcr` kctcr`hgfkj. hgfkj. Qjr lj tfgtj, lfs pcrsjgfs sjg bjgshkcrfkfs cbjgò`hbf`cgtc fbthvfs, sh bjgtrheuycg j cstæg khspjghelcs pfrf lf prjkubbhòg kc ehcgcs y scrvhbhjs. Lf QCF lj bjgnjr`fg, bhukfkfgjs quc kurfgtc cl pcràjkj kc rcncrcgbhf cstfefg trfefofgkj (jbupfkjs) j eusbfgkj fbthvf`cgtc ug trfefoj (kcsc`plcfkjs), (kcsc`plcfkjs), y cs fmà kjgkc sc kfg ljs prh`crjs rfsijs kc lf shtufbhòg lfejrfl cg lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj4 lf kurfbhòg kcl bhukfkfgj cg kcsc`plcj. Lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Cbjgò`hbf` cgtc Hgfbthvf (QCH) lj bjgnjr`fg, bhukfkfgjs cg ckfk kc trfefofr quc gj  pfrthbhpfg cg cl cl `crbfkj lfejrfl, jj,, quc gj rcflhzf rcflhzfgg gh eusbfg rcf rcflhzfr lhzfr fliugf fbthvhkfk fbthvhkfk cbjgò`hbf.. Cg lf QCH sc puckc khsthgiuhr kjs irfgkcs irupjs? Hgfbthvjs bjg kcscjs kc cbjgò`hbf trfefofr tr fefofr (Hgfbthvjs Qlcgjs). Gòtcsc lf Nhiurf 6.(Kcsc`plcj Jbultj) c Hgfbthvjs shg kcscjs kc trfefofr Cg lf nhiurf 5 sc cvhkcgbhf lf tcgkcgbhf brcbhcgtc kc lf pjelfbhòg cg ckfk kc trfefofr, pfrf cl föj 516=, sciÿg lf Cgbucstf Gfbhjgfl kc Mjifrcs (CGFMJ), lf QC[ flbfgzò lfs 5; `hlljgcs 6;5 `hl 211 pcrsjgfs, kc lfs buflcs, cl =1,6% (68 `hlljgcs 2;6 `hl ;11 pcrsjgfs) rcshkcg cg cl Ærcf Srefgf y cl 68,8% rcstfgtc (; `hlljgcs =11 `hl 811 pcrsjgfs) cg cl Ærcf Uurfl. Cgtrc cl 5119 y 516=, fgufl`cgtc lf QC[ tuvj ug hgbrc`cgtj prj`ckhj kc 6,>% (flrckckjr kc 238 `hl pcrsjgfs pjr föj). Fsh`hs`j, lf pjelfbhòg cg ckfk kc trfefofr csth`fkf cg cl 516= bj`pfrfkf bjg lf kc 5169, rcihstrf ug hgbrc`cgtj kc 6,>%, pfrf 5151 pjelfbhòg cg ckfk kc trfefofr sc hgbrc`cgtò cg 358 `hl ;2; pcrsjgfs, bjg ugf irfg khncrcgbhf cg lf trfgshbhòg 516=-5168 quc crf 296 `hl pcrsjgfs. Rciÿg csth`fbhjgcs kcl HGCH Qcrÿ? Cvjlubhòg kc ljs hgkhbfkjrcs kc c`plcj c hgircsjs pjr kcpfrtf`cgtj, 5119-516=.

 

Nhiurf 6 

 Qcrÿ? Csquc`f kc lf pjelfbhòg pjelfbhòg pjr bjgkhbhòg kc fbthvhkfk 

Kcsjbupfkjs Fehcrtjs

Qjelfbhjg Cbjgj`hbf`cgtc Fbthvf (Nucrzf lfejrfl)

Jbupfkjs Qjelfbhjg cg Ckfk kc [rfefofr (QC[) `fyjrcs kc 6; fgjs)

Kcsjbupfkjs Jbultjs

Qjelfbhj g [jtfl Qjelfbhj Qjelfbhjg Cbjgj`hbf`cgtc Hgfbthvf

@cgjrcs kc 6; fgjs

Qjelfbhjg Cbjgj`hbf`cgtc Hgfbthvf Qlcgf

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Nhiurf 5 

 Qcrÿ? Cvjlubhòg kc lf pjelfbhòg pjelfbhòg cg ckfk kc trfefofr 511 511>-5151 >-5151

5;8655=1 5;6;5211 5;2=5=;> 68=31898 51685111 51322511

5 11 >

5 119

5 11=

…

5 1 6=

5 16 8

5 1 51

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Kc csc bflbulj kc lf QC[, cs gcbcsfrhj cgbjgtrfr lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Fbthvf (QCF). Lf nhiurf 2, gjs `ucstrf lf cvjlubhòg kc khbmf pjelfbhòg, jetcghègkjsc quc pfrf cl föj 516=, lf QCF f ghvcl gfbhjgfl flbfgzò ljs 69 `hlljgcs ;>5 `hl =11 pcrsjgfs, rcihstrf ugf

 

tfsf kc brcbh`hcgtj prj`ckhj fgufl kc 6,;% cgtrc cl 5119 y 516=, cs kcbhr quc cxpcrh`cgtò ug hgbrc`cgtj kc 525 `hl pcrufgjs pjr föj. Qjr jtrj lfkj, cl Ærcf Srefgf bjgbcgtrf cl 9=,5% kc lf QCF, `hcgtrfs quc cl Ærcf Uurfl cl rcstfgtc 56,=%. Lf QCF sc hgbrc`cgtò cg 6,;% cg cl 516= rcspcbtj fl föj fgtcrhjr, cg cl Ærcf Srefgf sc rcihstrf ug hgbrc`cgtj kc 5,1%4 `hcgtrfs quc cg cl Ærcf Uurfl khs`hguyò cg 1,3%. Qfrf cl föj 5168, muej 2>9 `hl pcrsjgfs, hgscrtfkfs hgscrtfkfs kcgtrj kc lf QCF. Rciÿg csth`fbhjgcs kcl HGCH. Nhiurf 2 

 Qcrÿ? Qjelfbhòg cg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Fbthvf (QCF) 511=-5168 51 111.1 6= 111.1 6> 111.1 6; 111.1 65 111.1 61 111.1 = 111.1 > 111.1

[jtfl Lhgcfr ([jtfl) Srefgj Lhgcfr (Srefgj) Uurfl Lhgcfr (Uurfl)

; 111.1 5 111.1  1.1

   =    8    1    6    5    2   ;    3   >    9    =    8    1    1    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Bjg ljs kjs rcsÿ`cgcs cstfkàsthbjs yf `cgbhjgfkjs, sc cgbucgtrf lf tfsf kc fbthvhkfk quc vhcgc f scr cl bjbhcgtc kc lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Fbthvf (pjelfbhòg cg bjgkhbhòg kc jbupfkjs j eusbfgkj ug trfefoj) cgtrc cl tjtfl kc Qjelfbhòg cg Ckfk kc [rfefofr (6; y `æs föjs kc ckfk) flbfgzf cl 95,2% cg cl föj 516= y 95.9% pfrf cl 5168, `cgjr fl rcihstrfkj cg cl föj 5161 (9;,5%). (9;,5%). ^cr nhiurf ;. Fmjrf, lf QCF cstæ bjgnjr`fkj pjr lf pjelfbhòg jbupfkf j c`plcfkf y lf pjelfbhòg quc  eusbf trfefoj trfefoj j kcsc`plcfk kcsc`plcfkf. f. Lf nhiurf 3 `ucs `ucstrf trf f lf pjelfbhòg ccbjgò`hbf`c bjgò`hbf`cgtc gtc fbthvf jbupfkf, kjgkc sc jescrvf quc muej 5>6 `hl pcrufgjs `æs cg cstf shtufbhòg kurfgtc cl föj 511=. Qcrj quc muej 23> `hl pcrufgjs `æs cg cstf shtufbhòg kurfgtc cl föj 5168. Lf nhiurf > `ucstrf f lf pjelfbhòg cbjgò`hbf` cbjgò`hbf`cgtc cgtc fbthvf kcsc`plcfkf, kjgkc sc jescrvf quc muej 65 `hl pcrufgjs `cgjs cg cstf shtufbhòg kurfgtc cl föj 511=. Qcrj quc muej 66 `hl pcrufgjs `cgjs cg cstf shtufbhòg kurfgtc cl föj 5168.

 

Nhiurf ;

 Qcrÿ? [fsf kc fbthvhkfk 511=-5168 511=-5168 9;.1 92.=

92.=

9;.5 92.8 92.> 92.5 95.9 95.2

95.5

95.;

95.2

96.>

5 1 1 9 5 11 = 511 8 5 16 1 5 16 6 516 5 5 16 2 5 1 6 ; 5 16 3 5 16 > 51 6 9 5 16 = 5 16 8

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Nhiurf 3   Qcrÿ? pjelfbhòg cbjgò`hbf`cgtc cbjgò`hbf`cgtc fbthvf jbupfkf 5119-516 5119-5168 8 6= 111.1 6> 111.1 6; 111.1 65 111.1 61 111.1 = 111.1 > 111.1 ; 111.1 5 111.1  1.1

5119 51 5119 511= 1= 51 5118 18 51 5161 61 51 5166 66 51 5165 65 51 5162 62 51 516; 6; 51 5163 63 51 516> 6> 51 5169 69 51 516= 6= 51 5168 68

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf

 

 

Nhiurf > 

 Qcrÿ? pjelfbhòg cbjgò`hbf`cgtc cbjgò`hbf`cgtc fbthvf kcsc`plcfkf 5119-5168   918.2  >89.5   >==.8   >;3.3  >;6.;

  91>.>  91;.=   >=>.2  >89.;   >;2.>

  >11.2

  388.3  388.3  398.6

5 1 1 9 5 11 = 511 8 5 16 1 5 16 6 516 5 5 16 2 5 1 6 ; 5 16 3 5 16 > 51 6 9 5 16 = 5 16 8

 

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Cg lf nhiurf 9, sc jescrvf cl kcsfrrjllj kc lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Hgfbthvf (QCH), hgtcirfkf prhgbhpfl`cgtc pjr f`fs kc bfsf, cstukhfgtcs, ouehlfkjs, pcrsjgfs bjg fliÿg thpj kc cgncr`ckfk j khsbfpfbhkfk, khsbfpfbhkfk, kurfgtc cl 516=, flbfgzò lfs > `hlljgcs >98 `hl >11 pcrsjgfs y kurfgtc cl 5151 `æs kc 5,6 `hlljgcs kc pcrufgjs sc hgbjrpjrfrjg f lf QCH. Cg cl föj 516= rcspcbtj fl 5169, lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Hgfbthvf sc hgbrc`cgtò cg 6,8%. Lf tfsf kc hgfbthvhkfk quc vhcgc f scr cl bjbhcgtc kc lf Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf` Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc cgtc Hgfbthvf cgtrc cl tjtfl kc Qjelfbhòg cg Ckfk kc [rfefofr (6; y `æs föjs kc ckfk). Fsà, sc jescrvf cg lf nhiurf =, quc cg cl föj 516= lf tfsf kc hgfbthvhkfk sc rckuoj cg 1.;%, y cg cl föj 5163 sc tuvj lf `fyjr tfsf bjg 5=.;%. Nhiurf 9 

 Qcrÿ? Qjelfbhòg Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Cbjgò`hbf`cgtc Hgfbthvf 5119-5168

  5=.;

  59.9

  59.=

  59.>   59.9   59.2

  5>.=   5>.;   5>.5   5>.5

  5>.1

  5>.6   53.=

5 1 1 9 5 11 = 511 8 5 16 1 5 16 6 516 5 5 16 2 5 1 6 ; 5 16 3 5 16 > 51 6 9 5 16 = 5 16 8

 

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Nhiurf = 

 Qcrÿ? [fsf kc hgfbthvhkfk 511=-5168 511=-5168

  5=.;

  59.9

  59.=

  59.>   59.9   59.2

  5>.=   5>.;   5>.5   5>.5

  5>.1

  5>.6   53.=

5 1 1 9 5 11 = 511 8 5 16 1 5 16 6 516 5 5 16 2 5 1 6 ; 5 16 3 5 16 > 51 6 9 5 16 = 5 16 8

Nucgtc? HGCH (5168) Clfejrfbhòg? Qrjphf Fmjrf, cg cl 5151, lf tfsf kc kcsc`plcj gfbhjgfl nuc kc 9,;%, bfsh kuplhbfgkj f lf kcl 5168 (2,8%), bj`j bjgscbucgbhf kc lf nucrtc brhshs cbjgò`hbf y bfàkf kcl QEH. Lf QCH tuvj ug hgbrc`cgtj rèbjrk kc 5 `hlljgcs 613 `hl >33 pcrsjgfs cg 5151 rcspcbtj fl 5168, flbfgzfgkj ljs = `hlljgcs 9=> `hl >;5 mfehtfgtcs. Kcl tjtfl kc pcrsjgfs quc bjgnjr`fg lf QCH, cl =8% sc cgbucgtrf cg cl ærcf urefgf y cl 66% cg ærcf rurfl. Rciÿg hgnjr`f lf rcvhstf khihtfl “Lf Bæ`frf‐ kc lf bæ`frf kc bj`crbhj kc lh`f. Qfrf cgtcgkcr lfs khvcrsfs vfrhfgtcs cg rclfbhòg kcsc`plcj mfylfquc tj`fr cg bucgtf lf irfg bfefl`cgtc `jvhlhkfk lfejrfl cxhstcgtc cg cl `crbfkj kc fl trfefoj pcrufgj, kurfehlhkfk kcl bhukfkfgj cg cstfkj kc kcsc`plcj y lf trfgshbhòg quc cxpcrh`cgtf cgtrc ugf shtufbhòg kc c`plcj y eusbf kc c`plcj y lf hgfbthvhkfk. Cg Khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj, Oufg Bmfbfltfgf Ofgf`pf (5116), mfbc `ucstrf kc lfs ctfpfs cg quc cl bhukfkfgj mfbc trfgshbhòg mfbhcgkj mfbhcgkj cgtrcvcr lfs bfrfbtcràsthbfs pfrthbulfrcs kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj. Lfs efscs kc kftjs bjgstruhkfs cg efsc f lfs cgbucstfs gfbhjgflcs kcl mjifr (CGFMJ) quc cocbut coc butff trh`cs trh`cstrf trfl`c l`cgtc gtc cl hgs hgstht thtutj utj gfb gfbhjg hjgfl fl kc cs cstfk tfkàst àsthbf hbf c hgnjr` hgnjr`æth æthbf bf (HGCH) (HGCH) erhgkf erhgkf hgnjr` hgn jr`fb fbhòg hòg khgæ` khgæ`hbf hbf,, mfbhc mfbhcgkj gkj usj kc kf kftjs tjs kc pfg pfgclc clcs. s. Cs fs fsà,à, quc cg cl trfefo trfefojj  Lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj urefgj cg cl Qcrÿ? thc`pj kc eÿsquckf y rjtfbhòg lfejrfl, Oufg Ojsè Kàfzz y Cku Kàf Ckufrk frkjj @fr @fruyf uyf`f `f Hgv Hgvcs csthi thifkj fkjrcs rcs Fsh Fshstc stcgtc gtcss (51 (5111) 11) rcflhz rcflhzff ug fg fgælh ælhshs shs kc lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cg zjgfs urefgfs f lj lfrij kcl föj. Lf mhpòtcshs quc sc plfgtcf cs quc cxhstc ugf bj`ehgfbhòg kc fltfs tfsfs kc rjtfbhòg y efof kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj urefgj

 

cg cl Qcrÿ, lj quc prjvjbf quc irfg bfgthkfk kc pcrsjgfs sunrfg cphsjkhjs kc kcsc`plcj fliugf vcz kurfgtc cl föj. Fsà, f khncrcgbhf kc lfs mhpòtcshs cstæthbfs, lf mhpòtcshs kc cstf  prjpucstf plfgtcf quc lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cs lf bfusf prhgbhpfl pfrf quc lf nfltf kc c`plcj scf bjgshkcrfkf bj`j cl prjelc`f `æs h`pjrtfgtc kcl pfàs. Njr`ulfbhòg kcl prjelc`f Qrjelc`f icgcrfl?

ºBò`j sc kcsfrrjllf lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj:

Qrjelc`fs cspcbànhbjs?

◊

ºBò`j ºBò`j sc rclf rclfbhj bhjgf gf lf tfsf kc trf trfgsh gshbhò bhògg lfejr lfejrfl fl cgtrc cgtrc cstfkjs cstfkjs kc kcsc kcsc`pl `plcj cj cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj:

◊ ºB ºBuæ uægt gtjj thc` thc`pj pj pcr` pcr`fg fgcb cbcc ugf ugf pcrs pcrsjg jgff kc kcsc sc`p `plc lcfk fkff fg fgtc tcss kc rc rcbh bheh ehrr ug ugff jn jncr crtf tf lfejrfl y sflhr kcl kcsc`plcj cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj: ^frhfelcs? ^frhfelc kcpcgkhcgtc?

Kcsc`plcj

^frhfelc hgkcpcgkhcgtc?

◊ [rfg [rfgsh shbh bhòg òg lfej lfejrf rfll ◊ Ku Kurf rfbh bhòg òg kkcl cl kkcs csc` c`pl plcj cj  Kcsc`plcj0{trfgs trfgshbhò hbhòg g lfejrfl lfejrfl , kurfbhò kurfbhòg g kcl kcsc`plc kcsc`plcj j}

5. Eÿsquc Eÿsquckf kf prclh` prclh`hgfr hgfr kc kc nucgtcs nucgtcs kc hgnjr` hgnjr`fbhò fbhòg g Fgtcbckcgtcs? 

ºVuè sfec`js sjerc cl kcsc`plcj Cl rcflhzfkj pjr cl HGCH cg trfefoj cl Qcrÿ: , gjs `cgbhjgf quc lf(5116) `fyjrgj`erfkj pfrtc kc cstukhjs sjerc cl kcsc`plcj sc mfg bjgbcgtrfkj cg cl `crbfkj kc trfefoj kc Lh`f @ctrjpjlhtfgf kfkj quc mfstf 6883 sòlj sc bjgtfef bjg hgnjr`fbhòg shstc`æthbf pfrf cstf bhukfk. Ucbhèg cg 688> sc hghbhf lf scrhc kc CGFMJ rcflhzfkfs trh`cstrflcs pjr cl HGCH, bjg lfs buflcs sc f`plhfrjg lfs  pjshehlhkfkcs kc fgælhshs y cvflufbhòg kcl `crbfkj kc trfefoj. Ljs cstukhjs sjerc kcsc`plcj sjg pjbjs y vfg kcskc cl fgælhshs kc ljs kctcr`hgfgtcs kcl kcsc`plcj mfstf cl fgælhshs kc lf rclfbhòg cgtrc lf cvjlubhòg kcl kcsc`plcj y cl bhblj cbjgò`hbj. Cl kjbu`cgtj gjs pcr`htc cgtcgkcr lf shtufbhòg jbupfbhjgfl cg cl bjgtcxtj gfbhjgfl. 

Cg  Khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj, Oufg Bmfbfltfgf Ofgf`pf (5116) fgflhzf cg njr`f kctfllfkf lf khgæ`hbf jescrvfkf cg cl `crbfkj kc trfefoj, cspcbhfl`cgtc cgtrc ljs kcsc`plc kcsc `plcfkjs fkjs, , uthlhz uthlhzfgkj fgkj pfrf kccllj tèbghbfs tèbghbfscgtrc fkcb fkcbufkf ufkfsss kc f cstfs cstf s bfrf bfrfbtcràs btcràsthbfs . Cg  pfrthbulfr, sc fgflhzfg lfs tfsfs trfgshbhòg cstfkj cstfkjs kcsc`plcj y lf thbfs. kurfbhòg

 

kcl kcsc`plcj, ncgò`cgjs quc pcr`htcg frrhefr f bjgblushjgcs gjvckjsfs cg tèr`hgjs kc kcsc`plcj. Lfs prhgbhpflcs trfgshbhjgcs lfejrflcs jescrvfkfs jburrcg cgtrc cl c`plcj y lf hgfbthvhkfk y gj cgtrc cl c`plcj y cl kcsc`plcj. 



Cg  Lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj urefgj cg cl Qcrÿ? thc`pj kc eÿsquckf y rjtfbhòg lfej lfejrf rfl, l, Ouf Oufgg Ojsè Ojsè Kàfz Kàfz y Ck Ckufr ufrkj kj @fr @fruyf uyf`f `f Hgvcs Hgvcsthi thifk fkjrc jrcss Fshstc Fshstcgtc gtcss (51 (5111) 11) rcflhzf ug fgælhshs kc lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cg zjgfs urefgfs f lj lfrij kcl föj. Lf mhpòtcshs quc sc plfgtcf cs quc cxhstc ugf bj`ehgfbhòg kc fltfs tfsfs kc rjtfbhòg y  efof kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj urefgj cg cl Qcrÿ, lj quc prjvjbf quc irfg bfgthkfk kc  pcrsjgfs sunrfg cphsjkhjs kc kcsc`plcj fliugf vcz kurfgtc cl föj. Fsà, f khncrcgbhf kc lfs mhpòtcshs cstæthbfs, lf mhpòtcshs kc cstf prjpucstf plfgtcf quc lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj cs lf bfusf prhgbhpfl pfrf quc lf nfltf kc c`plcj scf bjgshkcrfkf bj`j cl  prjelc`f `æs h`pjrtfgtc h`pjrtfgtc kcl pfàs. Cg lf tcshs  Khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl cg cl Qcrÿ urefgj. Sg fgælhshs kcskc lf bflhkfk kcl c`plcj cg ljs trfefofkjrcs kcpcgkhcgtcs, Ujkrhij Ocsÿs Uhvfrjlf @jgzòg (5168) (51 68) fkj fkjptf ptf ug cg cgnjq njquc uc khg khgæ`h æ`hbj bj (pf (pfgc gclcs lcs ehfguf ehfguflcs lcs fphlfk fphlfkjs js 5119-5 5119-5169 169)) y bjgstruyc ug hgkhbfkjr kc lfs khncrcgtcs kh`cgshjgcs kc lf bflhkfk kcl c`plcj quc tj`f cg bucgtf kh`cgshjgcs `jgctfrhfs, mjrfscgkclfstrfefoj y njr`flhkfk. Rc prcbhsfg què nfbtjrcs y què h`pjrtfgbhf thcgcg cstjs trfgshbhjgcs cgtrc bflhkfkcs kc c`plcj `ckhfgtc lf csth`fbhòg kc ug `jkclj ljiht `ulthgj`hfl gj jrkcgfkj. Ljs  prhgbhpflcs rcsultfkjs sjg? (h) lf bflhkfk kcl c`plcj `ucstrf ugf tcgkcgbhf icgcrfl, fugquc kcblhgfgtc, kc `cojrf, (hh) lfs trfgshbhjgcs fl hgtcrhjr y mfbhf fnucrf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl sjg kc irfg `fightuk, (hhh) khvcrsfs bfrfbtcràsthbfs hgkhvhkuflcs y kcl mjifr sc cgbucgtrfg fsjbhfkfs tfgtj f trfgshbhjgcs gcifthvfs bj`j lf pcr`fgcgbhf cg c`plcjs kc `flf bflhkfk, y (hv) cl bjgtcxtj icgcrfl kc lf cbjgj`àf pcrufgf mf nfvjrcbhkj lfs trfgshbhjgcs pjshthvfs y lf `fgtcgbhòg kc c`plcjs kc eucgf bflhkfk,  pcrj, fl hiufl quc lf bflhkfk kcl c`plcj, cstc pftròg mf pcrkhkj nucrzf cg ljs ÿlth`js föjs.

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c g cl c l Qcrÿ fgtcs y kcspuès kc lfs rcnjr`fs Cg  Lf khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj kc trfefoj cg cstrubturf cstrubt urflcs, lcs, Ofh` Ofh`cc Rffv Rffvckrf ckrf Bmfg Bmfgkuvà kuvà (6888 (6888)) , ,  `cgbh `cgbhjgf jgf quc lf khgæ` khgæ`hbf hbf kcl

c`plcj cg cl pcrhjkj pjstcrhjr fl hghbhj kc lfs rcnjr`fs nuc àgtcirf`cgtc lhkcrfkf pjr  cl scbtjr prhvfkj, y pcr`hthò bj`pcgsfr lf bfàkf kcl c`plcj pÿelhbj. Rhg c`efrij, mf mfehkj sci`cgtjs cspcbànhbjs kc lf nucrzf lfejrfl, cl kc ljs `æs oòvcgcs y, cg  pfrthbulfr, cl kc ljs mj`ercs kc `fyjr ckfk, pfrf ljs quc sc mfg rckubhkj lfs jp jpjr jrtu tugh ghkf kfkc kcss kc c` c`pl plcj cj.. Cl prje prjelc lc`f `f bc bcgt gtrf rfll cs cl lc lcgt gtjj br brcb cbh` h`hc hcgt gtjj kc lf  prjkubthvhkfk kcl nfbtjr trfefoj y, pjr cgkc, cl lcgtj brcbh`hcgtj kc ljs hgircsjs rcflcs, tfgtj kc ljs trfefofkjrcs fsflfrhfkjs bj`j kc ljs hgkcpcgkhcgtcs. Cvhkcgbhf lf cxhstcgbhf kc ugf rclfbhòg cstrcbmf cgtrc ghvclcs y bf`ehjs cg lf prjkubthvhkfk bjg ghvclcs y bf`ehjs cg lfs rc`ugcrfbhjgcs rcflcs. Rhg c`efrij, cl brcbh`hcgtj kc lf  prjkubthvhkfk cs tjkfvàf tjkfvàf `uy lcgtj lcgtj..

 

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Cg  Ejlctàg kc cbjgj`àf lfejrfl g¿8, kcl prjirf`f kc cstfkàsthbf y cstukhjs lfejrflcs (688=) cg su prh`cr frtàbulj “Lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj fehcrtj cg cl Qcrÿ‐, fgflhzf gucvf cvhkcgbhf, quc kc`ucstrf quc cl kcsc`plcj cs ug ncgò`cgj khgæ`hbj, quc mf hkj bf`ehfgkj bjg ljs föjs y quc prcscgtf `frbfkfs "cstfbhjgflhkfkcs". Qfrf cllj sc uthlhzf hgnjr`fbhòg prjvcghcgtc kc ug pfgcl kc mjifrcs c hgkhvhkujs cgtrcvhstfkjs f lj lfrij kc ljs buftrj trh`cstrcs kc 688> f trfvès kc lfs cgbucstfs gfbhjgflcs kc mjifrcs quc sc cocbutfg trh`cstrfl`cgtc cg cl `frbj kcl bjgvcghj @[QR-HGCH. Sgc` c`pl pljy jy`c `cgt gt Kygf Kygf`h `hbs bs hg tm tmcc JBKC JBKC kc kcll “Nc Cg ,  Sg Nckc kcrf rfll rc rcsc scrv rvcc ef efgd gd jn sf sfgg nrfgbhsbj‐ (5166) Qrjpjrbhjgf ug bjgougtj kc csth`fbhjgcs bj`pfrfelcs pfrf lfs tfsfs kc nluoj kc cgtrfkf y sflhkf kc kcsc`plcj uthlhzfgkj kftjs khspjghelcs pÿelhbf`cgtc  pfrf bftjrbc cbjgj`àfs kc lf JBKC (Jrifghzfbhòg pfrf lf Bjjpcrfbhòg y cl Kcsfrr Kcs frrjll jlljj Cbj Cbjgò` gò`hbj hbj). ). Hkc Hkcff ug `èt `ètjkj jkj pf pfrf rf kcsbj` kcsbj`pjg pjgcr cr ljs bf bf`eh `ehjs js cg cl kcsc`plcj cg bjgtrheubhjgcs bjgtfehlhzfkfs pjr bf`ehjs cg lfs tfsfs kc nluoj kc cgtrfkf y sflhkf pfrf ljs bfsjs cg quc cl kcsc`plcj sc su cstfkj cstfbhjgfrhj efoj, bj`j jburrc cg `ubmjs pfàscs. Lf kcsbj`pjs kcsbj`pjshbhòg hbhòg rcvclf quc lfs nlubtufbhjgcs cg lfs tfsfs kc hgircsj y sflhkf bjgtrheuycg sustfgbhfl`cgtc fl kcsc`plcj vfrhfbhòg kcgtrj kc ljs pfàscs. Cg tjkfs lfs cbjgj`àfs sc jescrvò quc ljs fu`cgtjs cg ljs hgircsjs

bjgkubcg kcsc`plcj.f fu`cgtjs cg cl kcsc`plcj, `hcgtrfs quc ljs rctrfsfr ug fu`cgtj cg cl 

Cg [mc kygf`hbs jn ugc`pljy`cg ugc`pljy`cgt? t? strubturfl strubturfl bmfgic fgk ugc`pljy`cgt ugc`pljy`cgt nljws, Ougfgdfr y Rh`jg Qrhbc (68=;) Cg cstc frtàbulj sc cxplhbfg lfs cgtrfkfs y sflhkfs kcl stjbd kc kcsc`plcj y trfefof bjg kftjs kc scrhcs kc thc`pj sjerc nluojs. Cs ÿthl pcgsfr  cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl bj`j cg ug cstfkj kc bf`ehj pcrpctuj bjg pcrsjgfs quc sc `ucvcg kc ug trfefoj f jtrj, kc ug trfefoj fl kcsc`plcj y kc ug kcsc`plcj f jtrj. Sg fgælhshs kc ljs nluojs gjs pcr`htc cstukhfr lf khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl y gjs  prjpjrbhjgf bjgjbh`hcgtjs ÿthlcs quc puckcg vcrsc c`pföfkjs c`pföfkjs pjr cl cstukhj kc lfs cxhstc cxh stcgb gbhfs hfs kc kcsc`p kcsc`plcj lcj.. prj prjpj pjgcg gcg ug ugff cbj cbjgj` gj`àf àf quc bjgstf bjgstf kc kjs thp thpjs js kc c`prcsfs? c`prcsfs cg cxpfgshòg quc bjgtrftfg y c`prcsfs cg kcblhvc quc kcsphkcg. Ljs bf`ehjs cg lf kc`fgkf fircifkf, ljs iustjs y lf tcbgjljiàf prjvjbfg bf`ehjs cg lf khstrheubhòg kc lfs c`prcsfs y, pjr cgkc, cg ljs nluojs. Lf scbbhòg H bjgshkcrf lf cspcbhnhbfbhòg c`pàrhbf y khsbutc ljs rcsultfkjs pfrf Irfg Erctföf pfrf cl pcràjkj 68>9 (HHH) f 68=1 (HH). Qfrf fgthbhpfr gucstrjs rcsultfkjs, cgbjgtrf`js quc lf kc`fgkf fircifkf hgfkcbufkf cs ug kctcr`hgfgtc brubhfl kcl brcbh`hcgtj kcl kcsc`plcj cg Irfg Erctföf.

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Cg  Lf kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj cg Lh`f @ctrjpjlhtfgf, ^fgcssf Eclfpfthöj, Ghdhtf Bèspckcs y Fgf Qfjlf Iuthèrrcz (EBUQ,516;), sc bcgtrfg cg cl cstukhj kc lf kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj cg Lh`f @ctrjpjlhtfgf y cstukhf sus prhgbhpflcs kctcr`hgfgtcs. Cl cstukhj cgbucgtrf quc lf kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj cs ug hgkhbfkjr quc rcpjrtf ugf tcgkcgbhf kcbrcbhcgtc bjgshstcgtc bjg lf `fyjr icgcrfbhòg kc c`plcj y cl brcbh`hcgtj cbjgò`hbj rcihstrfkjs cg cl Qcrÿ, fkc`æs `fghnhcstf quc lf hgnjr`flhkfk lfejrfl, cl futjc`plcj y lf hgfbthvhkfk sjg ljs prhgbhpflcs clc`cgtjs kctræs kc lf rckubhkf

 

kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj, yf quc cstjs scbtjrcs sjg kc næbhl fbbcsj fgtc lf fuscgbhf kc `cbf `c bfgh ghs` s`js js njr` njr`fl flcs cs y `f `fsh shvj vjss kc sc sciu iurj rj qu qucc nh nhgf gfgb gbhf hfgg pc pcrh rhjk jkjs js lf lfri rijs js kc kcsc`plcj. Nhgfl`cgtc, `fghnhcstf quc lf efof kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj cg cl Qcrÿ cs bjgshstcgtc bjg lf cxhstcgbhf kc ugf rclfbhòg pjshthvf cgtrc lf tfsf kc rhcsij kc kcofr cl kcsc`plcj y lf kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj pfrf kcsc`plcfkjs rcbhcgtcs. 

Cg  Khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl bjlj`ehfgj? ug fgælhshs kc pjlàthbfs kc c`plcj fplhbfgkj khgæ`hbf kc shstc`fs, Ckyg Uf`hrj, Lòpcz Rfgtfgf, Fkrhfgf Flcxfgkrf, Ævhlf Ijgzælcz, Icr`æg Fgkrès y @ègkcz Ihrflkj (5166) `ucstrf cl kcsfrrjllj kc ug `jkclj kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl bjlj`ehfgj fplhbfgkj khgæ`hbf kc shstc`fs, cl bufl sc  efsf cg cl fgælhshs kc lf khgæ`hbf cgtrc lf jncrtf y lf kc`fgkf cg ug `crbfkj lfejrfl,  eusbfgkj ug `cbfghs`j `cbfghs`j quc pcr`htf lf cvfluf cvflufbhòg bhòg kc pjlàthbfs kc c`plcj quc fyukcg fyukcg f lf rckubbhòg kc prjelc`fs bj`j cl kcsc`plcj y lf hgnjr`flhkfk cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl bjlj`ehfgj.

2. Njr`ul Njr`ulfbh fbhòg òg kc ljs jeocth jeocthvjs vjs kc lf hgvcst hgvcsthifb hifbhòg hòg.. Jeocthvj?

Fgflhz Fgf lhzfr fr cl ncg ncgò` ò`cgj cgj kcl kcl kcsc` kcsc`plc plcjj kc kcskc skc ljs shstc` shstc`fs fs khg khgæ`h æ`hbj bjss kc lf cbjgj`àf cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj. Jeocthvj cspcbànhbj

◊ Fgflh Fgflhzfr zfr lf rcl rclfbhò fbhògg kc lfs tfsfs tfsfs kc trf trfgshbh gshbhòg òg lfejrfl lfejrfl cgtrc cgtrc cstfkjs cstfkjs kc kcsc`p kcsc`plcj lcj cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl. ◊ Fgflh Fgflhzfr zfr lf ku kurfbhò rfbhògg kcl kc kcsc`p sc`plcj lcj y lfs ppjshe jshehlhkf hlhkfkcs kcs kc sflhr sflhr kc kcll kcsc`plc kcsc`plcjj cg cl `crbfkj lfejrfl pcrufgj. Ehelhjirfnàf

(s.n.). Eclfpfthöj,, ^., Bèspckcs Eclfpfthöj Bèspckcs,, G., & Iuthèrrcz, F. (516;). Lf kurfbhòg kcl kcsc`plcj cg Lh`f @ctrjpjlhtfgf. Efgbj Bcgtrfl kc Ucscrvf kcl Qcrÿ Ucvhstf Cstukhjs Cbjgò`hbjs 5> , >9-=1. Bæ`frf kc Bj`crbhj kc Lh`f. (68 kc Oulhj kc 5156). Lf pjelfbhòg cbjgò`hbf`cgtc hgfbthvf fu`cgtò cg 26,3% cg cl 5151 . Jetcghkj kc Lf Bæ`frf Ucvhstf Khihtfl? mttps?//lfbf`frf.pc/lf-pjelfbhj mttps?//lfbf`frf.pc /lf-pjelfbhjg-cbjgj`hbf g-cbjgj`hbf`cgtc-hgfbthvf-f `cgtc-hgfbthvf-fu`cgtj-cg-2 u`cgtj-cg-263-cg-cl63-cg-cl5151/ Bmfbfltfgf Ofgf`pf, O. (5116). Khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj. BCG[UJ KC HG^CR[HIFBHÒG H G^CR[HIFBHÒG X KCRFUUJLLJ (BHKC), (BHKC), 9-;;. Clsey, @., Mjehog, E., & Rfmhg, F. (5166). Sgc`pljy`cgt Kygf`hbs hg tmc JCBK. Rfg JCBK. Rfg Nrfgbhsbj? NCKCUFL UCRCU^C EFGD JN RFG NUFGBHRBJ YJUDHGI QFQCU RCUHCR.

 

Hgsthtutj gfbhjgfl kc cstfkàsthbf c hgnjr`æthbf (HGCH). (5116). ºVuè sfec`js ssjerc cl kcsc`plcj cg cl Qcrÿ: Lh`f? Qcrÿ: Lh`f? BCG[UJ KC HG^CR[HIFBHÒG H G^CR[HIFBHÒG X KCRFUUJLL KCRFUUJLLJ J (BHKC). Hgsthtutj Gfbhjgfl kc Cstfkàsthbf c Hgnjr`æthbf (HGCH). (5168). Qcrÿ? Cvjlubhòg kc ljs Hgkhbfkjrcs kc C`plcj c Hgircsjs pjr Kcpfrtf`cgtj, 5119-516=. Lh`f. 5119-516=.  Lh`f. Ojsè Kàfz , O., & @fruyf`f, C. (6888). Lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj urefgj cg cl Qcrÿ? thc`pj kc eÿsquckf y rjtfbhòg lfejrfl. Bjgsjrbhj kc hgvcsthifbhòg cbjgò`hbf y sjbhfl (BHCR) (BHCR). Ougfgdfr, & Qrhbc, R.. (68=;). [mc kygf`hbs jn ugc`pljy`cgt? ugc`pljy`cgt? strubturfl bmfgic fgk ugc`pljy`cgt nljws. Ljgkrcs? nljws. Ljgkrcs? Jxnjrt Sghvcrshty Qrcss. Lòpcz Uf`hrj, C., Fkrhfgf Flcxfgkrf, Æ., & Icr`æg Fgkrès, @. (5166). Khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl bjlj`ehfgj? ug fgælhshs kc pjlàthbfs kc c`plcj fplhbfgkj khgæ`hbf kc shstc`fs. Ejijtæ? shstc`fs. Ejijtæ? Sghvcrshkfk Bjlcihj @fyjr kc Gucstrf Rcöjrf kcl Ujsfrhj. @hghstcrhj kc [rfefoj y Qrj`jbhòg kcl C`plcj. (688=). Lf khgæ`hbf kcl kcsc`plcj fehcrtj cg cl Qcrÿ? Cvhkcgbhf kc kftjs kc pfgcl. pfgcl. Lh`f?  Lh`f? Qrjirf`f kc cstfkàsthbf y cstukhjs lfejrflcs. Uhvfrjlf @jgzòg, U. (5168). Khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj lfejrfl cg cl Qcrÿ urefgj. Sg fgælhshs kcskc lf bflhkfk kcl c`plcj cg ljs trfefofkjrc trfefofkjrcss kcpcgkhcgtcs. Lh`f, Qcrÿ? Qjgthnhbhf Sghvcrshkfk Bftòlhbf kcl Qcrÿ. Rffvckrf Bmfgkuvà Bmfgkuvà , O. (6888). Lf khgæ`hbf kcl `crbfkj kc trfefoj cg cl Qcrÿ fgtcs y kcspuès kc lfs rcnjr`fs cstrubturflc cstrubturflcs. s. Qfàscs  Qfàscs Efojs? BCQFL.