DETERMINANTES DEL CONSUMO PRIVADO PERUANO: 1959 - 2009

June 5, 2019 | Author: jrodriguez_866541 | Category: Macroeconomics, Inflation, Consumption (Economics), Gross Domestic Product, Mercantilism
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Una investigación teórica experimental, que se adentra en el análisis del consumo privado para el caso peruano durante l...

Description

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0": YC@FCACL@L LN A@ CBYNZ\CG@JCDB CBYNZ\CG@JCDB  @ {nz`v ln jdb|`v jdb |cnm{d acmc|`ld s nzj`zd lnfcld ` p~n adz `a~mbdz |nbnmdz p~n j~m{acv! `a cg~`a p~n jdb nz|`! jdb d|v`z dfacg`jcdbnz ~bcynvzc|`vc`z s nz|~lc`b|canz8 zn j~nb|` jd b adz vnj~vzdz s `{dsd |ãjbcjd  ‚ |núvcjd z~icjcnb|nz p~n p~n {dzcfcac|`b {dzcfcac|`b a` yc`fcacl`l lna lna {vnznb|n |v`f`ed ln cbynz|cg`jcúb! {dv {`v|n lna cbynz|cg`ldv zn nz|à lcz{~nz|d nb z~ |d|`acl`l! ` |dm`v nb znvcd a` cbynz|cg`jcúb s vn`acu`vad ln a` m`bnv` màz dvlnb`l` s idvm`a {dzcfan! jdb vnz{nj|d ` adz m`|nvc`anz zn j~nb|` jdb adz adz z~icjcnb|nz n cm{vnzjcblcfanz" cm{vnzjcblcfanz"

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Y`acl`v d vnjo`u`v! {`v` na j`zd ln a` njdbdmí` {nv~`b`! `ag~b`z |ndví`z jdvvnz{dblcnb|nz ` j`l` ~b` ln a`z y`vc`fanz 6" Ln|nvmcb`v

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bnjnzcl`lnz! s {`v` naad bnjnzc|`mdz jdbdjnv `ag~bdz jdbjn{|dz! lnicbcjcdbnz s |ndví`z p~n bdz `s~l`v`b ` jdm{vnblnv s aang`v `

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zcbd mnlc`b|n na

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lnbdmcb`ld mã|dld lna vnzcl~d " \`b|d na CBNC jdmd na FJV ‚ FJV ‚ a`z õbcj`z cbz|c|~jcdbnz cbz|c|~jcdbnz p~n nz|cm`b nz|cm`b na jdbz~md jdbz~md {vcy`ld {vcy`ld ‚  ‚ ~|cacu`b nz|n mã|dld p~n cm{acj` zcm{anmnb|n lnl~jcv ln a` dinv|` `gvng`l` adz lnmàz jdm{dbnb|nz ln a` lnm`bl` icb`a5 adz g`z|dz ln jdbz~md icb`a lna gdfcnvbd /JG#! a` idvm`jcúb fv~|` ln j`{c|`a /IFH# s a`z >

nx{dv|`jcdbnz ln fcnbnz s znvycjcdz /_# " Nz lnjcv! na jdbz~md {vcy`ld zn df|cnbn lna zcg~cnb|n mdld5 zc a` dinv|` zn ln|nvmcb` z~m`bld na {vdl~j|d fv~|d cb|nvbd /[FC# s a`z cm{dv|`jcdbnz ln fcnbnz s znvycjcdz /M#! s a` dinv|` nz cg~`a ` a` lnm`bl` `gvng`l`! nb|dbjnz zn j~m{an a` zcg~cnb|n vna`jcúb5

           ! lnz{ne`bld  zn df|cnbn5            Ln nz|` nx{vnzcúb {~nln lnl~jcvzn p~n a` nz|cm`jcúb na jdbz~md {vcy`ld ln{nbln {dv nb|nvd ln a` nx`j|c|~l ln a`z nz|cm`jcdbnz ln d|v`z y`vc`fanz5 na [FC zn nz|cm` {dv na mã|dld lna {vdl~j|d! nz lnjcv! z~m`bld a` {vdl~jjcúb znj|dvc`a8 na JG! a`z _ s a`z M zn j`aj~a`b nb :

@a vninvcvbdz ` jdbz~md bd zdad ad o`jnmdz `a jdbz~md {vcy`ld! zc bd |`mfcãb `a jdbz~md g~fnvb`mnb|`a! ` a`z cm{dv|`jcdbnz! jdmd jdbz~md lna nx|nvcdv s ` a`z nx{dv|`jcdbnz"

<

Mã|dld m`|nmà|cjd p~n jdbzcz|n nb o`aa` v ~b vnz~a|`ld zcb a` bnjnzcl`l ln |nbnv l`|dz zdfvn adz jdm{dbnb|nz ln a` y`vc`fan! zc bd mnlc`b|n lcinvnbjc` nb|vn ~b` y`vc`fan p~n jdb|cnbn ` a` cbjúgbc|`"

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f`zn ` cbidvm`jcúb lcvnj|` s a` IFH mnlc`b|n ~b jàaj~ad cblcvnj|d lnvcy`ld ln a` dinv|` nb na mnvj`ld cb|nvbd" A`

nz|cm`jcúb

lna

jdbz~md

{vcy`ld

{vnznb|`

`lnmàz

na

cbjdbynbcnb|n ln p~n ` {nz`v p~n na CBNC s na FJV ~|cacu`b na mczmd mã|dld lna vnzcl~d! bd df|cnbnb adz mczmdz vnz~a|`ldz lnfcld ` a`z lcz|cb|`z i~nb|nz ln cbidvm`jcúb ~|cacu`l`z {dv j`l` ~bd ln naadz! nb {`v|cj~a`v ln a`z nx{dv|`jcdbnz n cm{dv|`jcdbnz"

Na CBNC ~|cacu` a`

cbidvm`jcúb ln Jdmnvjcd Nx|nvcdv {vdynbcnb|n ln a` Dicjcb` B`jcdb`a ln Nz|`líz|cj` lna Mcbcz|nvcd ln Njdbdmí` s Icb`bu`z /Dicbn# s na FJV[ a` cbidvm`jcúb

p~n na mczmd na`fdv` na`fdv` nb f`zn ` a`z

{úacu`z ln cm{dv|`jcdbnz cm{dv|`jcdbnz s nx{dv|`jcdbnz nx{dv|`jcdbnz p~n vnjcfn" [`v` na j`zd ln nz|` cbynz|cg`jcúb! {dv znv màz jdbic`fan s màz `jnvj`ld |`b|d nb z~z mã|dldz ln jàaj~ad jdmd nb z~z vnz~a|`ldz! zn ~z`và a` cbidvm`jcúb {vdynbcnb|n lna CBNC! nx|v`íl` ln a` f`zn ln l`|dz ln z~ {àgcb` naãj|vdbcj`"

:"6"6 A@ I^BJCÚB JDBZ^MD LN HNSBNZ Hnsbnz! ~bd ln adz màz gv`blnz nz|~lcdzdz ln a` jcnbjc` njdbúmcj`! s na {`lvn ln a` m`jvdnjdbdmí`! lnlcjd z~ ycl` `a nz|~lcd lna jdm{dv|`mcnb|d lna jdbz~md jdmd {`v|n ln a` lnm`bl` ninj|cy`! {`v` naad {vd{~zd ~b mdlnad ln jdbz~md {vcy`ld lnzjvc|d {dv5

    Nz lnjcv! na jdbz~md p~n vn`acu` ~b` {nvzdb` ln{nbln lna jdbz~md

”! p~n nb |ãvmcbdz znbjcaadz zcgbcicj` j~`b|d nz ad p~n

`~|úbdmd ‑

g`z|` ln z~z `odvvdz! ln ~b` vcp~nu` vcp~nu` {vnyc` p~n p~n |nbg`! ln ~b {`gd

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A` {vd{nbzcúb mnlc` |`mfcãb idvm` {`v|n ln a` |ndví` m`jvd Hnsbnzc`b`! bd dfz|`b|n bd nz m~s ~z`l` nb na `bàaczcz lna jdbz~md {vcy`ld! ` a` p~n m`z vninvnbjc` nz a` {vd{nbzcúb m`vgcb`a! s z~ jdb|v`{`v|n a` {vd{nbzcúb m`vgcb`a `a `odvvd

     5 a` z~m` ln

z ( j = 0! nz lnjcv a` vnb|` p~n vnjcfnb a`z {nvzdb`z zdad |cnbn 6 icbnz! zn jdbz~mn d zn `odvv`! bd |cnbn d|v`z `{acj`jcdbnz" A` lnm`bl` ln jdbz~md ln{nbln lna yda~mnb ln a` vnb|`" J~`bld a`z vnb|`z zdb m~s f`e`z nxcz|n jcnv|` lnm`bl` ln jdbz~md! ad p~n zn aa`m` &jdbz~md `~|úbdmd& s` p~n cbja~zd na p~n bd |cnbn b`l` |cnbn p~n jdbz~mcv `agd {`v` zdfvnycycv" @ {`v|cv ln `oí! j~`b|d m`sdv  zn` a` vnb|`! m`sdv znvà na jdbz~md8 a` i~bjcúb ln jdbz~md nz jvnjcnb|n jdb a` vnb|`" [nvd |`mfcãb jvnjnvà na `odvvd8 j~`b|` màz vcj` zn` ~b` zdjcnl`l! m`sdv {vd{dvjcúb ln z~z vnb|`z {dlvà lnz|cb`v `a `odvvd" Nz ln nz{nv`v p~n a`z i`mcac`z ln vnb|`z `a|`z `odvvnb ~b` {vd{dvjcúb m`sdv ln z~ vnb|`! mcnb|v`z p~n a`z i`mcac`z p~n df|cnbnb ~b` vnb|` f`e` bnjnzc|`b jdbz~mcv `~b màz ln ad p~n g`b`b" Na {dvjnb|`en p~n vn{vnznb|` na jdbz~md zdfvn na |d|`a ln a` vnb|` zn o`jn j`l` ynu mnbdv j~`bld ãz|` `~mnb|`" Aa`m`vnmdz {vd{nbzcúb mnlc` `a jdbz~md ` nzn {dvjnb|`en8 a` {vd{nbzcúb mnlc` `a jdbz~md nz lnjvnjcnb|n" Nb j`mfcd! aa`m`vnmdz {vd{nbzcúb m`vgcb`a `a jdbz~md /[Mg J# `a `~mnb|d p~n zn {vdl~jn nb na jdbz~md j~`bld a` vnb|` `~mnb|` nb ~b` ~bcl`l" Hnsbnz {nbz`f` p~n a` {vd{nbzcúb m`vgcb`a `a jdbz~md nz jdbz|`b|n8 nz lnjcv! j~`bld adz cblcycl~dz jdbzng~cmdz ~b `~mnb|d ln b~nz|v`z vnb|`z! lnz|cb`mdz zcnm{vn a`

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 @~bp~n a` vna`jcúb nb|vn na jdbz~md n cbgvnzd nz nz|vnjo`! bd |dl` a` cbidvm`jcúb ln j`l` `ðd jdcbjcln jdb a` i~bjcúb nz|cm`l`" Nz lnjcv! o`s d|vdz i`j|dvnz! `lnmàz lna cbgvnzd lcz{dbcfan! p~n `inj|`b na jdbz~md s! {dv nbln! nz {dzcfan mnedv`v lcjo` i~bjcúb" O`s ldz cb|nv{vn|`jcdbnz mdlnvb`z /cb|nv|nm{dv`anz# lna jdbz~md p~n zdb fàzcjdz {`v` nb|nblnv na jdm{dv|`mcnb|d ln nz|` y`vc`fan5 na nbidp~n lna jcjad yc|`a s na lna cbgvnzd {nvm`bnb|n! s jdmd {`v|n ln a` fõzp~nl` s `aj`bjn ln b~nz|vdz dfen|cydz {a`b|n`ldz jdb a` cbynz|cg`jcúb! o`vnmdz na `bàaczcz! |`b|d |núvcjd jdmd `{acj`|cyd {`v` j`l` ~bd ln adz nbidp~nz lna jdbz~md"

:"6"6 NA NBIDP^N LNA JCJAD LN YCL@ D JCJAD YC\@A Nb ~b` znvcn ln `v|íj~adz nzjvc|dz nb adz `ðdz jcbj~nb|`! Iv`bjd Mdlcgac`bc s z~z jda`fdv`ldvnz @afnv| @bld s Vcjo`vl Fv~mfnv  ~|cacu`vdb na mdlnad ln a` jdbl~j|` lna jdbz~mcldv ln Iczonv {`v` nz|~lc`v a` i~bjcúb ln jdbz~md" ^bd ln z~z dfen|cydz nv` vnzdaynv na nbcgm` lna jdbz~bd! nz lnjcv! nx{acj`v adz vnz~a|`ldz `{`vnb|nmnb|n jdb|v`lcj|dvcdz p~n zn df|~ycnvdb j~`bld zn jdbivdb|d a` i~bjcúb n Hnsbnz jdb adz l`|dz" Naadz ocjcnvdb ~b ocbj`{cã nb a` vnb|` p~n {nvjcfnb a`z {nvzdb`z! lcjcnbld p~n nz|` y`vc` ` ad a`vgd ln z~ ycl`! nz|` cb|nv{vn|`jcúb ln a` jdbl~j|` ln adz jdbz~mcldvnz jdbz|c|~sd a` f`zn ln z~ oc{ú|nzcz lna jcjad yc|`a" Nz|n nbidp~n {`v|n ln a` cln` p~n a`z i`mcac`z {a`bcicj`b na jdm{dv|`mcnb|d ln z~ jdbz~md ` ad a`vgd ln `m{acdz {nvídldz! jdb a` cb|nbjcúb ln m`b|nbnv ~b bcyna màz d mnbdz ~bcidvmn ` ad a`vgd ln |dl` a` ycl`" A` idvm` nb p~n a`z i`mcac`z zn jdm{dv|`b vnz{nj|d `a

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L~v`b|n a` ycl` `j|cy` na g`z|d ln jdbz~md zn icb`bjc` jdb na cbgvnzd jdvvcnb|n s nb a` n|`{` ln `odvvdz

n

zcnm{vn

m`b|nbcnbld

jdbz~md" Nb Nb

cbynvzcdbnz ~b

ynenu

i~bl`mnb|`amnb|n

`j~m~a`l`z ia~ed

màz

l~v`b|n d

a`

mnbdz

jdb

adz

ycl` `j|cy`!

jdbz|`b|n ln

d|v`z {`a`fv`z! {`a`fv`z! na jdbz~md bd ln{nbln ln{nbln zdad lna lna

cbgvnzd jdvvcnb|n! p~n nz mnbdv d b~a` l~v`b|n a` ynenu! zcbd |`mfcãb ln a` vcp~nu`! nz lnjcv! ln adz cbgvnzdz {nvjcfcldz {dv d|vdz i`j|dvnz ln {vdl~jjcúb /`j|cydz! {vd{cnl`lnz! `jjcdbnz nb a` fdaz` ln y`advnz! n|j"#" Lcjod |dld nz|d! a` iúvm~a` m`|nmà|cj` s vn{vnznb|`|cy` ln nz|n mdlnad ln jdbz~md lnzln na nbidp~n lna jcjad yc|`a {`v` ~b` njdbdmí` nb z~ jdbe~b|d! p~nl`và lnzjvc|d {dv a` i~bjcúb5

         Lna mdlnad ln jdbz~md! lnzln a` {nvz{nj|cy` lna jcjad yc|`a! zn {~nln nx|v`nv s o`jnv na na `bàaczcz ln adz |vnz nz|cm`ldvnz5 [vcmnvd! na jdbz~md `~|úbdmd ycnbn ` nz|`v l`ld {dv 

! s {`v` nz|n

j`zd a` cb|nv{vn|`jcúb ln |`a nz|cm`ldv bd nz cg~`a `a ln a` |ndví` hnsbnzc`b`! zcbd m`z fcnb zn nb|cnbln jdmd na jdbz~md p~n a`z {nvzdb`z vn`acu`b ln m`bnv` cbln{nblcnb|n ln j~`ap~cnv |c{d ln cbgvnzd! n cbja~zcyn cbln{nblcnb|nmnb|n ln a` nl`l p~n |nbg`b! {dv  |`b|d na zcgbd {`v` nz|n j`zd bd

bnjnz`vc`mnb|n |cnbn p~n znv 

{dzc|cyd! s` p~n zc ~b` {nvzdb` d a` m`sdví` ln a`z {nvzdb`z bd |cnbn ~b nm{and nb z~ e~ynb|~l `lnmàz ln z~ bcðnu nz ln nz{nv`vzn p~n zdad jdbz~m`b nbln~làbldzn ln m`bnv` cb|nv|nm{dv`a! nz lnjcv 

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:"6": NA NBIDP^N LNA CBGVNZD [NVM@BNB\N Nz|n nbidp~n zdz|cnbn p~n na jdbz~md i`mcac`v ln{nbln bd zúad lna cbgvnzd jdvvcnb|n! zcbd |`mfcãb lna cbgvnzd nz{nv`ld nb na i~|~vd /{vdmnlcd ln cbgvnzd nz{nv`ld {`v` na {vnznb|n s adz zcg~cnb|nz `ðdz#" @a cg~`a p~n na nbidp~n `b|nvcdv {`v|n ln a` cln` p~n a`z i`mcac`z ` ad a`vgd lna |cnm{d |cnblnb ` z~`ycu`v z~ jdbz~md! mdz|v`bld ~b` |v`snj|dvc` nz|`fan" Zc! {dv nenm{ad! ~b` {nvzdb` vnjcfn z~ z~nald adz zàf`ldz! bd jdbjnb|v` |dld z~ jdbz~md zúad nb nzdz lí`z8 {vnicnvn ~b ia~ed vng~a`v ln jdbz~md! nb a~g`v ln ~b` `f~bl`bjc` ods s a` nzj`znu m`ð`b` d `snv" Ln `j~nvld jdb nz|` cln` na jdbz~md zn {a`bcicj` ln `j~nvld jdb na cbgvnzd ln ~b {nvídld màz a`vgd /cbgvnzd {nvm`bnb|n#" Jdmd nz {vnyczcfan p~n na cbgvnzd ia~j|õn ln `ðd nb `ðd! a`z i`mcac`z ~z`b

na

mnvj`ld

ln

j`{c|`anz

{`v`

m`b|nbnv

~b

jdbz~md

vna`|cy`mnb|n nz|`fan ` {nz`v ln a`z ia~j|~`jcdbnz lna cbgvnzd" Nb adz {nvídldz

f~nbdz

zn

`odvv`

s

nb

adz

m`adz

zn

lnz`odvv`

nbln~làbldzn zc nz bnjnz`vcd jdb na jdbznj~nb|n j`vgd ` i~|~vdz cbgvnzdz màz `a|dz ‚ `a|dz ‚ m`b|nbcnbld `zí ~b bcyna ln ycl` nz|`fan" Ad `b|nvcdv zcgbcicj` p~n zdad ~b `~mnb|d lna cbgvnzd p~n na jdbz~mcldv jdbzclnv` jdmd {nvm`bnb|n /p~n {nvl~v`và nb na |cnm{d# `inj|`và z~ jdbz~md8 màz bd ~b `~mnb|d |v`bzc|dvcd /~b` y`vc`jcúb p~n bd {nvl~v`và#! na j~`a bd |nblvà ninj|dz z~z|`bjc`anz zdfvn na jdbz~md" [~nln lnjcvzn nb|dbjnz p~n na jdbz~md {vcy`ld /J[# nz|à vna`jcdb`ld `a cbgvnzd {nvm`bnb|n /S[# ln a` zcg~cnb|n idvm`5

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~b` iv`jjcúb cg~`a ` &h& ln `j~nvld ` a` fvnjo` nxcz|nb|n nb|vn na y`adv  `j|~`a lna cbgvnzd s z~ y`adv nz{nv`ld nb na {nvídld {vnycd5

              Nb|dbjnz! z~z|c|~snbld nz|` nx{vnzcúb nb a` `b|nvcdv s o`jcnbld `ag~b`z m`bc{~a`jcdbnz `agnfv`cj`z! zn df|cnbn5

                  X       ] Zn {~nln o`jnv iàjcamnb|n a` jdm{vdf`jcúb ln p~n a` õa|cm` nx{vnzcúb nz cg~`a ` a` i~bjcúb lna cbgvnzd {nvm`bnb|n /ynv `bnxd ;0#! `lnmàz zn {~nln o`jnv a` jdbz|`|`jcúb nm{ívcj` {`v` na j`zd {nv~`bd s` p~n a` õa|cm` nx{vnzcúb nz iàjcamnb|n j`aj~a`fan! ln ldbln zn df|nblvà na |ãvmcbd h  ! zn vnnm{a`u`v` nz|n  ‚ |nvmcbd  ‚ nb a` ‑  

”   ”  

i~bjcúb ln cbgvnzd {nvm`bnb|n {`v` df|nbnv nz|` ~a|cm` /adz jàaj~adz s `bàaczcz ln adz mczmdz zn o`vàb nb na j`{í|~ad jdvvnz{dblcnb|n#" Nz`z zdb |dl`z a`z |ndví`z lna jdbz~md |dm`l`z nb j~nb|` {`v` na |v`f`ed nb aíbn`z lnzjvc|d! zn jdb|cb~`v` ln|`aa`bld a`z f`znz jdbjn{|~`anz s |núvcj`z ln a`z lnmàz y`vc`fanz {`v` `a icb`a ln nz|n

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:"6" y`vc`fanz

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o`jnv a` ln|njjcdb ln a` {dzcfan j`~z`acl`l ln p~n na mdlnad bd i~bjcdbn ln m`bnv` `lnj~`l`" Lnfcld ` adz i~nv|nz j`mfcd nxcz|nb|nz nb adz `ðdz ln 03?3 ` 0339! ln |dmd jdmd {~b|d ln p~cnfvn ` j`l` ~bd ln nz|dz `ðdz! {vcmnvd ynvnmdz na {dzcfan p~cnfvn nxcz|nb|n nb na `ðd ln 03?3 s adz vnz~a|`ldz df|nbcldz i~nvdb5

Jdmd {~nln jdm{vdf`vzn na idvm`|d lna jdb|v`z|n nz zcmca`v ` adz `b|nvcdvnz! |nbcnbld nb j~nb|` p~n! nb nz|` dj`zcúb! a` oc{ú|nzcz b~a` nz a` cg~`al`l ln adz jdnicjcnb|nz ln `mf`z z~fm~nz|v`z! nz lnjcv! a` {nvm`bnbjc` nz|v~j|~v`a" Zn dfznvy`fan p~n nb adz vnz~a|`ldz lna |nz| ln b~nz|vd b~nz|vd mdlnad! na y`adv ln adz nz|`líz|cjdz! s z~ {vdf`fcacl`l `zdjc`l` bd bdz {nvmc|n `jn{|`v a` oc{ú|nzcz b~a`! {dv ad p~n |nvmcb`mdz jdbja~snbld p~n zn o` {vdl~jcld ~b j`mfcd ln nz|v~j|~v` nb b~nz|vd mdlnad nb |dvbd `a `ðd 03?3! s ad p~n nz màz gv`yn `õb! nz p~n nz|n j`mfcd nz `fv~{|d {~nz|d p~n zdad jdb ~b :. ln jdbic`bu` zn {~nln lnjcv p~n bd o`s p~cnfvn"

NZ\CM@JCDBNZ VNJ^VZCY@Z5 Nvvdvnz vnj~vzcydz /Vnj~vzcyn Vnzcl~`az# [vnznb|` ~b gvàicjd ln adz nvvdvnz vnj~vzcydz ` ad a`vgd ln a` m~nz|v`! {~lcnbld clnb|cicj`vzn {dzcfan j`mfcdz ln nz|v~j|~v` nb `p~naadz {~b|dz nb adz p~n adz nvvdvnz z~{nv`b adz y`advnz lnicbcldz {dv a`z f`bl`z jdbic`bu`! j`aj~a`l`z ãz|`z jdmd ($- ldz ynjnz a` lnzyc`jcúb

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Nb|dbjnz adz vnz~a|`ldz ln nz|` {v~nf` m~nz|v`b p~n zc nxcz|n ~b j`mfcd ln nz|v~j|~v`! {~nz|d p~n a`z f`bl`z ln jdbic`bu` o`b zcld z~{nv`ldz nb|vn adz `ðdz ln 03?; ` 033;

66

\nz| J^Z^MTZP5 [vnznb|` ~b gvàicjd jdb na y`adv j`aj~a`ld lna |nz| J^Z^MTZP

{`v`

j`l`

~bd

ln

adz

{nvídldz!

cbja~sãbldzn

cg~`amnb|n a`z f`bl` ln jdbic`bu` ln lcjod jdb|v`z|n `a >. ln zcgbcicj`|cycl`l"

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A` cb|nv{vn|`jcúb nz zcmca`v `a `b|nvcdv nb na znb|cld ln p~n zc `agõb {~b|d vnf`z` adz aímc|nz ln zcgbcicj`|cycl`l! lnfnmdz `z~mcv a` {vnznbjc` ln ~b j`mfcd nz|v~j|~v`a nb b~nz|vd mdlnad" [dv |`b|d {dlnmdz jdbja~cv p~n ln `j~nvld ` nz|` {v~nf` b~nz|vd mdlnad ZC {vnznb|` nyclnbjc` ln j`mfcdz nz|v~j|~v`anz s lnb|vd lna mczmd v`bgd ln {nvcdldz ln|nvmcb`ldz"

D\V@Z [V^NF@Z VNJ^VZCY@Z" \NZ\ [VNLCJ\CYD @ ^B [NVCDLD5 Na vnz~a|`ld s z~ cb|nv{vn|`jcúb nz zcmca`v `a {vnznb|`ld nb a` {vcmnv` ln a`z d{cdbnz! gvàicjd ln nvvdvnz vnj~vzcydz! {nvd cbja~snbld nb a` {`v|n cbinvcdv lna gvàicjd na bcyna ln zcgbcicj`|cycl`l `zdjc`ld ` j`l` {~b|d j~`bld nz|n nz cbinvcdv `a 0>.! ln idvm` |`a p~n `p~naadz {~b|dz p~n zdfvn{`z`b a`z f`bl`z ln jdbic`bu` nb na gvàicjd {vnznb|`v`b ~b y`adv ln zcgbcicj`|cycl`l cbinvcdv `a >."

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zn {vnznb|`b lnb|vd lna v`bgd ln adz `ðdz ln 03?; ` 0?3;

6:

nb ad

p~n ` lnz{~nz vnz{nj|` bd zn {~nln `zng~v`v ` jcnbjc` zcnv|` p~n o`s p~cnfvnz nz|v~j|~v`anz zcgbcicj`|cydz /adz {~b|dz `u~anz zdb nyclnbjc` nm{cvcj` ln nz|d#"

\NZ\ LN [VNLCJJCÚB @ B [NVÍDLDZ5 A` {`v|n z~{nvcdv lna gvàicjd nz zcmca`v ` adz `b|nvcdvnz /nvvdvnz vnj~vzcydz#! {nvd nb a` {`v|n cbinvcdv {vnznb|` adz bcynanz ln zcgbcicj`|cycl`l `zdjc`ldz ` ~b |nz| lna |c{d vnz|vcbgcld ln Jodw /Jodw Idvnj`z| \nz|# ~|cacu`bld! nb j`l` {~b|d! a` nz|cm`jcúb o`z|` a` dfznvy`jcúb /|-0#! s jdm{`vàblda` jdb adz nvvdvnz lna |d|`a ln a` m~nz|v`" @a cg~`a p~n nb na j`zd `b|nvcdv! zdad `{`vnjnb adz {~b|dz &zdz{njodzdz& ln {vnznb|`v  j`mfcd nz|v~j|~v`a s p~n zdb `p~naadz jdb {vdf`fcacl`l `zdjc`l` cbinvcdv `a 0>."

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JDNICJCNB\NZ VNJ^VZCYDZ5 Nb nz|` dj`zcúb na vnz~a|`ld znvà ~b gvàicjd mõa|c{an jdb ~b` vn{vnznb|`jcúb cblcycl~`a ln j`l` ~bd ln adz jdnicjcnb|nz lna mdlnad! adz p~n o`aa`mdz znanjjcdb`ld nb a` ynb|`b` {vnyc`! e~b|d jdb z~z vnz{nj|cy`z f`bl`z ln jdbic`bu`" Nb nz|dz gvàicjdz bd dfznvy`vnmdz! nb gnbnv`a! {~b|dz `búm`adz! i~nv` ln a`z f`bl`z ln jdbic`bu`! {nvd zí p~n {dlvnmdz cbinvcv zc zn ln|nj|` `agõb jdm{dv|`mcnb|d zcz|nmà|cjd nb a` nyda~jcúb ln j`l` ~bd ln adz {`vàmn|vdz"

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Nb na mdlnad njdbdmã|vcjd nb nz|~lcd! {`vnjn f`z|`b|n nyclnb|n p~n na {`vàmn|vd `zdjc`ld ` a` {vdl~jjcúb /[FC# `~mnb|` ` icb`anz lna {nvídld m~nz|v`a! mcnb|v`z p~n adz d|vdz ldz zn vnl~jnb nb na mczmd {nvídld! ad p~n nz|`ví` z~{dbcnbld ~b `~mnb|d ln a` na`z|cjcl`l vna`|cy` lna j`{c|`a nb b~nz|v` i~bjcúb ln {vdl~jjcúb"

[V^NF@Z LN ZNVCNZ LN \CNM[D S NZ\@JCDB@VCNL@L" A@ [V^NF@ LN LCJHNS I^AANV @^MNB\@L@5  @{`v|n ln adz {vdjnlcmcnb|dz màz zcm{anz f`z`ldz nb na `bàaczcz lna nz|`líz|cjd ln LW ln ~b` vngvnzcúb jdb a` y`vc`fan ` `b`acu`v s adz {dzcfanz nanmnb|dz ln|nvmcbcz|`z /jdbz|`b|n s |nblnbjc`# p~n {vnznb|àf`mdz nb na lnz`vvdaad |núvcjd! {`v` b~nz|vd mdlnad a` {v~nf` ln v`íjnz ~bc|`vc`z {`v` j`l` y`vc`fan zdb5

JDBZ^MD [VCY@LD5

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mnbdv `a y`adv ln nz|`líz|cjd d | j`aj~a`ld {dv Mj M`hcbbdb {dlnmdz vnjo`u`v vnjo`u`v a` oc{ú|nzcz b~a` ln ln cbnxcz|nbjc` nxcz|nbjc` ln v`íu ~bc|`vc` nz lnjcv5

  qq  [dv ad |`b|d jdbja~cmdz p~n na jdbz~md nz ~b` y`vc`fan bd nz|`jcdb`vc`! {dv ad p~n j~`ap~cnv mdlnad jdvvcld ` nz|` ln a` idvm` C/0# d C/l# |nvmcb`v` {dv gnbnv`v` ~b mdlnad ln vngvnzcúb nz{~vc`"

A@ CBIA@JCDB5

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A@ ACP^CLNU5

Na cg~`a p~n nb na j`zd `b|nvcdv! nz iàjcamnb|n jdm{vdf`fan p~n zn vnjo`u` a` oc{ú|nzcz b~a` ln nz|`jcdb`vcl`l ln a` y`vc`fan! {~nz|d p~n na y`adv `fzda~|d lna | nz|`líz|cjd j`aj~a`ld lna nz|cm`ldv vnu`g`ld

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MDLNAD J@AJ^A@LD! ACFV@LD LN A@ BD NZ\@JCDB@VCNL@L5

Jdmd zn {~nln dfznvy`v ` {nz`v ln p~n bd zn o` adgv`ld nacmcb`v a` {vnznbjc` ln a` m~a|cjdacbn`acl`l s `~|djdvvna`jcúb na jdnicjcnb|n ln

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Nz iàjcamnb|n jdm{vdf`fan p~n na mdlnad bd nz|à ycda`bld bcbgõb z~{~nz|d ln adz MJD jaàzcjdz! s `lnmàz ln naad bd {vnznb|` {vdfanm`z vna`jcdb`ldz jdb a` bd nz|`jcdb`vcl`l! vngvnzcúb nz{~vn`!

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Zn cbjdv{dv`v`b jdmd {`v|n ln adz `bnxdz a`z {v~nf`z p~n lnmdz|v`v`b p~n ninj|cy`mnb|n nz|n mdlnad nz|` acfv`ld ln |dld m`a nz|`líz|cjd ynv `bnxdz" [dv õa|cmd na mdlnad ln jdbz~md {vcy`ld {`v` a`z i`mcac`z {nv~`b`z p~nl`v` lnicbcld jdmd5

                   X    ]   0"6 LCZJ^ZCÚB LN ADZ VNZ^A\@LDZ DF\NBCLDZ Na `bàaczcz lna mdlnad icb`a nz znbjcaad! zn {~nln {`v|cv lcjcnbld lcjcnbld p~n na mdlnad bd bnjnz`vc`mnb|n nz|` nz{njcicj`ld {dv a`z jaàzcj`z y`vc`fanz ln jdbzclnv`jcúb nb a` ln|nvmcb`jcúb lna jdbz~md {vcy`ld! s` p~n {dv ad gnbnv`a nbjdb|v`mdz p~n adz mdlnadz ln jdbz~md nz|àb nx{acj`ldz {dv na cbgvnzd fv~|d d {dv na cbgvnzd lcz{dbcfan! zcb nmf`vgd a` y`aclnz ln nz|dz mdlnadz nz l~ldz` / ` {nz`v ln |nbnv  ~b jdnicjcnb|n ln ln|nvmcb`jcúb m~s nany`ld# {~nz|d p~n nz|dz mdlnadz {vnznb|`b `ag~b`z i`aa`z s {vdfanm`z nz|`líz|cjdz p~n |nvmcb`b {dv o`jnv ln naadz cbnicjcnb|nz nb a` {vnlcjjcúb! cbinvnbjc` s `bàaczcz"

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