La evaluación de proyectos proy ectos en empresas exportadoras Donnie Luis Miguel Huertas Pomalaya Pomalaya
[email protected] dhuertas@ dhuertas @alpinebusiness.com.pe 12 de Noviembre de 2014 Lima, Perú
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Conceptos Básicos •
•
•
Proyec Proy ecto to:: En térmi término noss si simp mple less es cualq cualqui uier er idea idea qu que e satisface una necesidad. Etapas: Etapa s: Existen Existen 4 et etapa apass en la vida de un proyect proyecto: o: Preinversión, Inversión, Operación, Liquidación. La ev evalua aluación ción de pro proyec yectos tos permite permite esco escoger ger la soluc solución ión que resuelve de manera eficiente, segura y rentable esta necesidad (se encuentra en la primera etapa)
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Etapas de un Proyecto Identificación
Destaca la necesidad •
Realiza el Diagnostico •
Formulación
Documento a diferentes niveles
1- PER PERFI FILL 2- PREF PREFACTIB ACTIBILID ILIDAD AD 3- FACTIB ACTIBILID ILIDAD AD
Identifica vías de solución •
Evaluación
Engloba cinco estudios:
Se realiza sobre los flujos de caja proyectados para un determinada cantidad de periodos
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Etapas en la Formulación de Proyectos ESTUDIO DE MERCADO: Demanda, Oferta, Comercialización, cantidad demandada, precio sugerido, canales de comercializ comercialización. ación.
ESTUDI TUDIO O TÉ TÉCN CNIC ICO O O PLAN PLAN DE PROD PRODU UCCIÓ CCIÓN N Tecnología, tamaño del proyecto, determinación del monto de la inversión y los costos de producción.
ESTUDIO ESTUDIO ORGANIZACIONA ORGANIZACIONALL Defin De finir ir una es estru tructu ctura ra org organi aniza zativ tiva a ade adecuad cuada a a los re reque querim rimien ientos tos de la
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Etapas en la Formulación de Proyectos ESTUDIO ECONOMICO FINANCIERO:
Sistematizar rubros de inversión. inversión. Cuantificar costos e ingresos. ingresos. Analizar la estructura estructura de financiamiento. financiamiento. Calcular el monto necesario de capital de trabajo para el proyecto. Elaborar Elabor ar proyeccion proyecciones es de Estado de Resultados Resultados y de Flujo de Caja.
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Evalua aluación ción Financ Financiera iera de Proy Proyectos ectos
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Para empezar…. ¿Cual es el objetivo de una empresa? ¿Cuál es su razón de ser?
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¿Cual es el Rol del Financiero? ESTADO EST ADO DE SITUACION FINANCIERA
N
2 - D
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Enfoquémonos Enfoquémonos en la última…. ¿Qué es el
Capital de Trabajo? Trabajo? •
Es el efectivo que una empresa o proyecto debe mantener para seguir produciendo mientras se cobra lo vendido.
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Determinación del Capital de Trabajo
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Capital de Trabajo Lo que SI debemos reali lizzar: •
•
Financia rse con cuentas por pagar Financiarse pagar.. Buscar la menor tasa en las cuentas por pagar pagar..
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Ahora enfoquémonos en las dos
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¿Y como sabemos que el proyecto
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Pilares de la Evaluación de Proyectos
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VALOR ACTUAL NETO (VAN)
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¿ Que es el Valor Actual Neto – VAN? “
Primero debemos entender el
Valor del Dinero en el Tiempo
”
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¿ Que es el Valor Actual Neto – VAN? •
•
Es el Val Valor or de Flu Flujos jos Futuro Futuross en el prese present nte e menos menos la inversión inicial. Si el result resultado ado es positivo positivo,, entonces entonces se debe aceptar aceptar el proyecto, por el contrario si es negativo se debe rechazar puesto que el proyecto ha pedido mas de lo que ha dado. VAN
=
FC1 (1+t)^
1
+
FC2 (1+t)^
2
+
FC3 (1+t)^
3
+
FCn (1+t)^
n
-
Inversión Inicial
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Valor Actual Actual Net Neto o - VAN Ejemplo de VAN FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
Año 0
Egre sos ope rati vos
Impue sto a l a Re nta
Año 2
62,449
Año 3
Año 4
Año 5
62,449
62,449
62,449
62,449
-40,592
-40,592
-40,592
-40,592
-6,557
-6,557
-6,557
-6,557
-7,757
-40,592
Recuperación Activo Fijo
4,000
Recuperación Capital de Trabajo
8,000
Inversión
-53,000
Activo Fijo
-45,000
Capital de Trabajo Trabajo
WACC
Año 1
Ingresos
FCL
FLUJO DE CAJA DE FINANCIAMIENTO (-) PAGO DE CUOTA DE DEUDA (+) ESCUDO FISCAL
-8,000
-53,000
Año 0
15,300
Año 1
-4,985 378 378
15,300
Año 2
-4,985 311 311
15,300
Año 3
-4,985 240 240
15,300 Año 4
26,100 Año 5
-4,985
-4,985
165 165
85
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LA TASA INTERNA DE RETORNO- TIR
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¿ Que es la Tasa Interna de Retorno ? •
La TIR es la tasa de rentabil rentabilidad idad promed promedio io anual que el pro pr oyect cto o pa pag ga a los in inv versi sion oniistas po porr in inv vert rtiir sus fondos.
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
Try Scribd FREE for 30 days to access over 125 million titles without ads or interruptions! Start Free Trial Cancel Anytime.
The world's largest digital library
Try Scribd FREE for 30 days to access over 125 million titles without ads or interruptions! Start Free Trial Cancel Anytime.
The world's largest digital library
Try Scribd FREE for 30 days to access over 125 million titles without ads or interruptions! Start Free Trial Cancel Anytime.
Tasa Inter Interna na de Ret Retorno orno - TIR •
TIR > Tasa de descuento =
Se Acepta porque crea valor.
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
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The world's largest digital library
Try Scribd FREE for 30 days to access over 125 million titles without ads or interruptions! Start Free Trial Cancel Anytime.
