Chapter 1

 Energy for Sustainability  Randolph & Masters, 2008

Chapters 1: Energy Patterns & Trends

Energy for Sustainability 

Sustainability: 



patterns of economic, environmental, and social progress that meet the needs of the present day without reducing the capacity to meet future needs.

Sustainable energy 

patterns of energy production and use that can support society’s present and future needs with least life-cycle economic, environmental, and social costs.

Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley’s top ten priority problems in the world’s quest for sustainability:

10. Population 9. Democracy 8. Education 7. Disease 6. Terrorism and War  5. Poverty 4. Environment 3. Food 2. Water 

1. Energy

Why is Energy #1? 

 

Abundant, available, affordable, clean, efficient and secure energy would enable the resolution of all of the other problems. We need energy for sustainability. We need for energy to maintain order in the world’s systems because of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Thermodynamics:: 

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Matter and energy tend to degrade into an increased state of disorder, chaos or randomness, a state of increased Entropy Only through a flow of quality energy through the system (and a corresponding flow of less quality energy out) can order and structure be created. A constant flow of energy is required to maintain that order. Nature and society on Earth are able to produce order and structure only through their ability to acquire energy. Nature uses the plant photosynthesis to acquire energy for all living things. Society uses energy systems and mostly the stored fossil energy from those plants millions of years ago to acquire energy for civilization. 

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We have an energy problem. Simply put, it has three components: 

Oil   

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Carbon  

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40% of our energy still comes from petroleum, reserves are concentrated in the volatile Middle East, and the date when global oil production will peak looms closer. global climate change is upon us, and we are still 80% dependent on carbon-emitting fossil fuels

Global Demand Growth  

the developing world needs energy; China's energy use is doubling every 9 years

…our energy problem is complicated by three factors: 

Slow Progress toward Alternatives 

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Change is Hard 

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to oil, carbon, and demand growth because of uncertainty, social norms, and vested interests

Time is Short 

the time to act was yesterday.

Solutions? 

Improve efficiency of energy use to reduce demand growth

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Replace oil with other sources

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Increase carbon-free energy sources Reduce fossil fuel use and/or sequester carbon emissions

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…focus of this course is on efficiency & renewable energy….Why?

Pacala & Socolow (2004) Carbon Stabilization Wedges • Need Seven 1-GtC/year wedges by 2054 to be on road to stabilization • Possible sources of wedges: 4 - energy efficiency 4 - renewable energy 3 - CO2 capture & storage 2 - forestry and agricultural soils 1 - nuclear power 

How? 

Advance sustainable energy Technologies

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Consumer and community Choice for efficiency, conservation, non-carbon energy

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Public Policies to 

Advance sustainable energy technologies

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Enhance consumer and community choice

Focus on three sectors: 

Buildings:  

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Transportation:   

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1/2 of our energy use today 40% of carbon emissions

1/3 of our energy use today 2/3 of our oil use 32% of carbon emissions

Electricity:   

40% of energy and growing 52% from coal, 20% nuclear, 16% gas, 12% renewables 39% of carbon emissions

Aside on Energy, Power, Units, Conversion

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Energy is the capacity to do work



Power is the rate of energy use or  energy/time

Energy Units and Conversion

Example: Using dimensional analysis and conversion factors, calculate how many equivalent Btus, watt-hours, and barrels of oil there are in 10 metric tons of coal?

10 Mt coal x 2200 lb x Mt

550 x 106 Btu x

kwh

st

2000 lb

st coal

x 1000 wh

3414 Btu

550x 106 Btu x

x 25 x 106 Btu = 550 x 106 Btu

bbl oil 5.8 x 106 Btu

= 161 x 106 watt-hours

kwh

=

94.8 bbl oil

Global Energy Trends 

Demand Growth: >2% per year 

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High dependence on fossil fuels

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Inequitable distribution of energy use

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Huge appetite in developing world

Growing Demand for Energy 2005: 468 Q

World Energy by Type Fossil Fuels dominate

Global Growth of Population, Energy, GDP 1800-2000

Energy, Population, GDP, CO2 up ↑ Energy/cap , Energy/$GDP down ↓

Energy Indicators, 2005 Energy is not equitably distributed Energy Cap

Energy GDPmkt

Energy GDPpp

% Pop

% Energy

% GDPmkt

% GDPpp

% CO2

United States

340

9.1

9.1

4.6%

21.8%

30.4%

19.2%

21.1%

Russia

212

86.7

14.9

2.2%

6.5%

1.0%

3.5%

6.0%

Japan

177

4.5

6.5

2.0%

4.9%

13.8%

6.0%

4.4%

China

51

35.8

7.9

20.3%

14.5%

5.2%

14.7%

18.9%

Bangladesh

5

11.8

1.1

2.2%

0.1%

0.1%

1.1%

0.1%

World

72

12.7

8 .0

6,445

463

43,920

55,500

28,193

units

M Btu cap

1000Btu $GDP

1000Btu $GDP

million

Quad Btu

 billion $

Mill. MT  billion $

U.S. Energy Production & Consumption Growing net import gap

U.S. Energy Use by Sector  Industry flat, others growing

U.S. Energy Use by Fuel

U.S. Energy Flow, 2006

U.S. Energy Use Indicators

U.S. Energy Use Indicators GDP way up

Energy & Pop up

Energy/cap flat Energy/GDP way down

The Good News: Improved Efficiency of U.S. and (World) Economy

(Energy/

$GDP)

Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005 25.0

20.0

If intensity intensity dropped dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year 

   )    0    0    0    2    $   n 15.0    i    (    $    /   u    t

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)

   B    d   n 10.0   a   s   u   o    h    t

5.0

0.0    9    4    9    1

   1    5    9    1

   3    5    9    1

   5    5    9    1

   7    5    9    1

   9    5    9    1

   1    6    9    1

   3    6    9    1

   5    6    9    1

   7    6    9    1

   9    6    9    1

   1    7    9    1

   3    7    9    1

   5    7    9    1

   7    7    9    1

   9    7    9    1

   1    8    9    1

   3    8    9    1

   5    8    9    1

   7    8    9    1

   9    8    9    1

   1    9    9    1

   3    9    9    1

   5    9    9    1

   7    9    9    1

   9    9    9    1

   1    0    0    2

   3    0    0    2

   5    0    0    2

U.S. Electricity Energy Flow Primary and End-Use energy Primary Energy

Losses

U.S. Primary Energy for Electricity Generation Big growth (2%/y), 70% fossil fuels

Specific Fuels for U.S. electricity 52% coal, 20% nuclear 

Energy Sources for Residential Buildings Largest requirement: “Electrical Losses”

U.S. Transportation Energy: 95% Petroleum

U.S. Energy Production by Fuel: Crude Oil Decline

Crude Oil

U.S Petroleum: domestic production down, imports up