Cálculo de Poblaciones Futuras

 

;7-2-;1;1

GÍFG\FJ CL QJKFMGHJOLW B\S\[MW

Q[LWLOSMCJ QJ[>

W\GMSHGJOM RHFGM I[JRL[ OLFHJ

 

\OHRL[WHCMC OMGHJOMF CLF MFSHQFMOJ

-

BMG\FSMC CL HOILOHL[HM MI[HGJFM

HOS[JC\GGHJO Fms jkrms cl mium pjtmkfl oj sl chslýmo pmrm smsbmglr sjfj uom olglshcmc clf djdlotj mgtumf mgt umf,, shoj shoj qul clklo clklo prlvlr prlvlr lf grlghd grlghdhlo hlotj tj cl fm pjk pjkfmg fmgh÷o h÷o lo uo plrhjc plrhjcj j cl ldpj ldpj prucloghmf qul vmräm lotrl =1 y 31 mýjs0 shlocj olglsmrhj lsdmr gumf slrí fm pjkfmgh÷o buturm mf omf cl lstl plrhjcj. Gjo fm pjkfmgh÷o buturm sl cltlrdhom fm cldmocm cl mium pmrm lf omf clf plrhjcj cl chslýj. Fm cjtmgh÷o j fm cldmocm plr gíphtm, ls fm gmocmc cl mium qul rlquhlrl gmcm plrsjom cl fm pjkfmgh÷o, lxprlsmcm lo fhtrj/emkhtmotl/cäm. Gjojghcm fm cjtmgh÷o, ls olglsmrhj lsdmr lf gjosudj prjdlchj chmrhj moumf, lf gjosudj díxhdj chmrhj y lf gjosudj díxhdj ejrmrhj. Lf gjosud gjo sudj j prjdlc prjdlchj hj chmrhj chmrhj moumf moumf sl slrvh rvhrí rí pmrm pmrm lf gífguf gífgufj j clf vjfudl vjfudlo o clf rls rlslrv lrvjrh jrhj j cl mfdmglomdhlotj y pmrm lsdmr lf gjosudj díxhdj chmrhj y ejrmrhj.

GJOSLUSJ>

Lo fm cltlrd cltlrdhom homgh÷ gh÷o o clf ldpj ldpj pmrm pmrm lf gumf gumf sl gjosh gjoshclr clrm m buoghj buoghjomf omf lf shs shstld tldm, m, hotlrvhlolo uom slrhl cl vmrhmkfls qul clklo slr lvmfumcms pmrm fjirmr uo prjylgtj lgjo÷dhgmdlotl vhmkfl. QJKFMGHJO>

Lf bmgtjr pjkfmgh÷o ls lf qul cltlrdhom fjs rlqulrhdhlotjs cl mium. Wl gjoshclrm qul tjcms fms plrsjoms ufhzmrmo lf shstldm cl mium pjtmkfl m prjylgtmrsl shlocj olglsmrhj pjr lffj ldpmcrjomr m tjcjs fjs emkhtmotls, hclogmr lo uo grjquhs fm ukhgmgh÷o cl fjgmfl fjg mflss pþkfhg pþkfhgjs js y lf oþdlrj oþdlrj cl vhvhlo vhvhlocms cms pjr brlotl brlotl cl gmffl gmffl00 mch mchghj ghjoío oíocjs cjsl l uo rlihstrj lo lf qul sl hogfuym lf ojdkrl clf nlbl cl bmdhfhm y lf oudlrj cl plrsjoms qul emkhtmo lo gmcm vhvhlocm. GJOW\DJ MGS\MF>

Lo fm dmyjräm cl fms pjkfmghjols rurmfls clf pmäs sl gjosudl mium prjvlohlotl cl fjs räjs, qulkrmcms, gmomfls cl rlimcäj y dmomomfls, qul, sho prjtlggh÷o oh trmtmdhlotj mclgu clgum mcj, oj jb jbrl rlgglo ohoi hoiuom uom imr mrmo mom m y rlprl lprlsslot lotmo dís dís khl hlo o bj bjgj gjss cl gjotmdhomgh÷o qul ilolrmo loblrdlcmcls y lphcldhms. M lstm shtumgh÷o sl sudm qul lo fms èpjgms cl slquäm chsdhouyl j clsmpmrlgl lf mium y fjs emkhtmotls sl lolo qul trmsfmcmr m bulotls chstmotls0 tmrlm ilolrmfdlotl rlmfhzmcm pjr fms dunlrls y fjs ohýjs. JKNLSHRJ> 

Cltlrdhomr fm pjkfmgh÷o buturm gjo dètjcj mrhtdègj, iljdètrhgj, pmrmk÷fhgj pmrm uo plrhjcj cl chslýj cl ;1 mýjs.

Srmkmnj cl> Gmfgufj cl pjkfmghjols buturms = G\[WJ> MKMWSLGHDHLOSJ CL MI\M QJSMKFL X MFGMOSM[HFFMCJ

 

\OHRL[WHCMC OMGHJOMF CLF MFSHQFMOJ

-

BMG\FSMC CL HOILOHL[HM MI[HGJFM

=. Lo fm gjduohc gjduohcmc mc cl ‖U—, clf chstr chstrhtj htj ‖X—, ‖X—, ls rlqulrhcj rlqulrhcj lfmkjrmr lfmkjrmr lf lxplchlot lxplchlotl l tègohgj tègohgj cl mkmstlghdhlotj cl mium pjtmkfl pjr irmvlcmc. Lsdl fm pjkfmgh÷o buturm pmrm uo plrhjcj cl chslýj cl ;1 mýjs, pjr lf dètjcj iljdètrhgj y mrhtdègj, gjo fjs shiuhlotls cmtjs glosmfls>

Mýjs

=88;

;11=

;1=1

Qm (Emk.)

;3;11

77;;1

32;11

Qjkfmgh÷o Mgtumf (Qm) 4 32;11 emkhtmotls Qlrhjcj cl chslýj (t) 4 ;1 mýjs Gífgufj> cl rmz÷o cl grlghdhlotj Mýjs

Qm (Emk.)

=88;

;3;11

;11= ;1=1

Q

Qm . t

8

81;1

;=9511

1.13=3=3=3 1.79;9;9;9

8

=;851

;85851

1.1373=3;5 1.7819;535

(Q/Qm.t)

r. t

77;;1 32;11

tjtmf

r4

r 

t (mýjs)

=5

1.9273