Burger King LBO Model

July 16, 2017 | Author: rolandsudhof | Category: Leveraged Buyout, Securitization, Equity (Finance), Expense, Debt
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Short Description

Dynamic and customizable three statement and debt-paydown model for 3G's recent Leveraged Buyout (LBO) of Burger Kin...

Description

Burger King Holdings Inc. LBO Analysis

Circularity Valuation date Acquisition share price Exit EV / EBITDA multiple Exit year

6/30/2010 $24.00 9.4 5.0

Model based on 3G Capital's September 2, 2010 tender offer for all outstanding shares of Burger King Ho Model assumes BKC pays a special dividend before the deal closes and 3G contributes 161 million in cas Specific financing terms were unknown as of the date of this analysis.

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com) 9/26/2010

g shares of Burger King Holdings, Inc ("BKC"). ntributes 161 million in cash for operations.

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Sources Equity financing Term loan facility Revolving credit facility Senior unsecured notes Existing capital leases Total sources Additional cash for operations

1,500.0 1,750.0 150.0 900.0 65.3 4,365.3 161.4

Deal terms Advisory fee Pay-out cash prior to closing LIBOR floor Term loan interest spread Revolver interest spread Revolver commitment fee Senior notes interest

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

1% 1 1.75% 4.75% 4.75% 1% 8%

Uses

Balance sheet reconciliation Pre LBO

BK offer price Basic shares Diluted shares Acquired equity value Net debt Enterprise value Advisory fees Total uses Dilution Options outstanding Weighted avg. exercise price RSUs, deferred shares, PBRS awards Weighted avg. exercise price Dilution

$24.00 135.9 139.3 3,344.1 826.3 4,170.4 33.4 4,203.9

6.4 17.2 1.6 3.456

Deal metrics Transaction value % debt % equity EV / LTM EBITDA Price / earnings Debt / EBITDA

4,170.4 1 0 9.4 8.0 6.4

Assets excl. cash Cash Goodwill Total assets Debt Leases Other liabilties Equity Total liabilties + SE

2,528.6 31.0 2559.6 761.0 65.3 792.5 940.8 2,559.6

Post LBO Assets excl. cash Cash Goodwill Total assets

2,559.6 161.4 (31.0) 2,690

Debt Leases Other liabilities Equity

2,800.0 65.3 792.5 1,500.0

Total liabilties + SE New goodwill

5,157.8 2,467.8

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Return analysis 2008

2009

Sponsor investment Dividends Exit enterprise value (-) Net debt at exit Total Sponsor cash flow

IRR

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011 2012 2013 (1,500.0)

(1,500.0)

19.8%

Return sensitivity to exit multiple and Revolver / Term loan cost of debt 19.8% 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

2.00% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

2.50% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

3.00% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

3.50% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

4.00% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

4.50% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

6.50% 12.28% 15.05% 17.57% 19.89% 22.05% 24.06% 25.96%

7.00% 12.18% 14.95% 17.48% 19.81% 21.98% 24.00% 25.89%

Return sensitivty to capex requirements and cost cutting 19.8% -3.00% (0.0) (0.0) 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00%

5% 12.68% 15.41% 17.91% 20.21% 22.34% 24.34% 26.21%

5.00% 12.58% 15.32% 17.82% 20.13% 22.27% 24.27% 26.15%

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

5.50% 12.48% 15.23% 17.74% 20.05% 22.20% 24.20% 26.08%

6.00% 12.38% 15.14% 17.65% 19.97% 22.12% 24.13% 26.02%

e 30, 2014

2015

5,329.3 (1,625.5) 3,703.8

5.00% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

5.50% 9.41% 14.25% 18.38% 22.01% 25.25%

7.50% 12.07% 14.86% 17.40% 19.74% 21.90% 23.93% 25.83%

8.00% 11.97% 14.77% 17.31% 19.66% 21.83% 23.86% 25.76%

Exit multiple Term loan spread

9.4 4.75%

SG&A cost cutting in 2011 Capex % of sales

0.00% 7.00%

Operating and debt paydow

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

and debt paydown model

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Inputs 2009

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

0 0 113.5

() 0 113.7

0 0 113.7

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 24.07%

0 1 -0.6

0 1 1.9

0 1 -0.7

0% 0 1 0

0 5

0 8.8

0 8.7 0.10

7% 8.9 10%

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 104.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

5.5% 5.5% 1.0% 25.0% 104.2 7.0% 2.8% 8.0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.4

0.3 0.4

35.50% 0.4

2008 Revenue assumptions Company restaurant growth Franchise growth Property ($ amount) COGS assumptions Food, paper, and product costs % sales Payroll and employee benefits % sales Occupancy and other costs % sales Other income statement assumptions SG&A cost cutting as a % of sales SG&A as a % of sales Property expenses % of property revenue Other operating expenses (income) Fixed asset assumptions Capex % of sales Intangible asset amortization Depreciation % of beg. PP&E

Balance sheet assumptions Receivables % of sales Prepaids and other current assets % of COGS Deferred income taxes % of sales Investment in franchisee property % of franchisee revenue Other assets Accounts payable % of COGS Accrued advertising % of sales Other accrued liabilities % of sales Other liabilties % of sales Deferred income taxes % of sales Share issues / (repurchases) Dividends Tax assumptions Effective tax rate Marginal tax rate Debt assumptions Cash floor Cash sweep LIBOR

0.4 0.4

50 100%

Credit facility interest rate Credit facility commitment fee Term loan interst rate Senior notes interest rate Capital lease interest rate Principal repayments Interest on cash

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0

0

6.50% 1.00% 6.50% 8% 0 0 1%

scal year ending June 30, 2012

2013

2014

2015

0 0 113.7

0 0 113.7

0 0 113.7

0 0 113.7

0 29.92% 24.07%

0 29.92% 24.07%

0 29.92% 24.07%

0 29.92% 24.07%

1% 0 1 0

0% 0 1 0

0% 0 1 0

0% 0 1 0

7% 8.8 10%

7% 8.8 10%

7% 8.6 10%

7% 8.2 10%

5.5% 5.5% 1.0% 25.0% 104.2 7.0% 2.8% 8.0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0 0.0

5.5% 5.5% 1.0% 25.0% 104.2 7.0% 2.8% 8.0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0 0.0

5.5% 5.5% 1.0% 25.0% 104.2 7.0% 2.8% 8.0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0 0.0

5.5% 5.5% 1.0% 25.0% 104.2 7.0% 2.8% 8.0% 13.8% 2.7% 0.0 0.0

35.50% 0.4

35.50% 0.4

35.50% 0.4

35.50% 0.4

50 100%

50 100%

50 100%

50 100%

Growth assumption

1 Conservative

Operating leverage benefit

2 Moderate Restaurant costs as a %

6.50% 1.00% 6.50% 8% 0 0 1%

6.50% 1.00% 6.50% 8% 15.47% 0 1%

6.50% 1.00% 6.50% 8% 15.47% 0 1%

6.50% 1.00% 6.50% 8% 15.47% 0 1%

Conservative

Restaurant costs as a % of restaurant sales changes by 3%

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Income statement For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

2008

2009

2,454.7 1,538.0 916.7 501.0 62.1 (0.6) 354.2

2,537.4 1,643.7 893.7 494.3 58.1 1.9 339.4

2,502.2 1,614.8 887.4 495.8 59.4 (0.7) 332.9

2,554.6 1,598.9 955.7 506.2 58.6

Depreciation & amortization EBITDA

95.6 449.8

98.1 437.5

111.7 444.6

110.3 501.3

Interest expense, net Profit before taxes

61.2 293.0

54.6 284.8

48.6 284.3

391.0

Tax expense Net Income

103.4 189.6

84.7 200.1

97.5 186.8

138.8 252.2

34.2

34.1

34.2

0

135.1 137.2 $1.40 0.25 0.25

134.8 136.8 $1.48 0.25 0.25

135.4 137.6 $1.38 0.25 0.25

135.4 137.6 $1.86 1.83

Revenue Restaurant expenses Gross margin (1) SGA Property expenses Other operating expenses (income) EBIT

Dividends WASO - basic WASO - diluted EPS - basic EPS - diluted Dividends per share

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

391.0

iscal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

2,608.3 1,639.2 969.1 490.7 58.6

2,663.3 1,680.5 982.8 501.1 58.6

2,719.5 1,722.9 996.7 511.7 58.6

2,777.1 1,766.3 1,010.8 522.5 58.6

419.8

423.1

426.4

429.8

118.0 537.8

125.3 548.4

132.1 558.5

138.4 568.1

419.8

423.1

426.4

429.8

149.0 270.8

150.2 272.9

151.4 275.1

152.6 277.2

0

0

0

0

135.4 137.6 $2.00 1.97

135.4 137.6 $2.02 1.98

135.4 137.6 $2.03 2.00

135.4 137.6 $2.05 2.01

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Balance sheet 2008 Cash and cash equivalents Receivables Prepaids and other current assets Deferred income taxes Total current assets PP&E, net Intangible assets, net Goodwill Investment in property leased to franchisees Other assets Total assets Accounts payable Accrued advertising Other accrued liabilities Current portion of LT debt and leases Total current liabilities LT debt Capital leases Other liabilties Deferred income taxes Total liabilities Common stock APIC, net Retained earnings AOCI Total SE Total SE + liabiltiies Balance check

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

2009

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

121.7 130.0 86.4 32.5 370.6

0.0 142.9 88.4 15.1 246.4

50.0 137.6 88.8 25.0 301.5

1013.2 1062.7 26.4 135.3 98.9 2707.1

1014.1 1025.4 31.0 138.5 104.2 2559.6

1091.5 1016.5 2467.8 138.8 104.2 5120.3

127.0 67.8 220.0 67.5 482.3

106.9 71.9 200.9 93.3 473.0

113.0 70.1 200.2 0.0 383.3

755.6 65.8 354.5 74.1 1732.3

667.7 65.3 344.6 68.2 1618.8

2506.6 65.3 345.3 67.6 3368.1

1.4 577.5 455.4 -59.5 974.8

1.4 580.3 420.4 -61.3 940.8

1752.2 0.0 1752.2

2707.1

2559.6

5120.3

0.00

0.00

0.00

scal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

50.0 140.5 87.9 25.5 304.0

50.0 143.5 90.2 26.1 309.7

50.0 146.5 92.4 26.6 315.5

50.0 149.6 94.8 27.2 321.5

1164.9 1007.7 2467.8 140.4 104.2 5189.0

1234.9 998.9 2467.8 141.9 104.2 5257.4

1301.8 990.3 2467.8 143.5 104.2 5323.1

1366.0 982.1 2467.8 145.1 104.2 5386.7

111.9 71.5 204.4 0.0 387.8

114.7 73.0 208.7 0.0 396.4

117.6 74.6 213.1 0.0 405.3

120.6 76.1 217.6 0.0 414.3

2291.4 65.3 352.5 69.0 3166.0

2069.4 65.3 359.9 70.4 2961.5

1842.1 65.3 367.5 71.9 2752.1

1610.2 65.3 375.3 73.4 2538.5

-

-

-

-

2023.0 0.0 2023.0

2295.9 0.0 2295.9

2570.9 0.0 2570.9

2848.1 0.0 2848.1

5189.0

5257.4

5323.1

5386.7

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Cash flow statement 2008

2009

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

Cash flow from operating activities Net income Depreciation and amortization Change in receivables Change in prepaids and other current assets Change in deferred income taxes Change in other assets Change in accounts payable Change in accrued advertising Change in other accrued liabilities Change in other liabilties Change in deferred income taxes Operating cash flow

252.2 110.3 5.3 (0.4) (9.9) 6.1 (1.8) (0.7) 0.7 (0.6) 361.1

Cash flow from investing activities Capex Change in investment in property leased to franchisees Investing cash flow

(178.8) (0.3) (179.2)

Cash flow from financing activities Dividends Share issues / (repurchases) Cash flow available for debt repayment

181.9

Change in LT debt Change in capital leases Financing cash flow

(293.4)

Net change in cash

(111.4)

Cash balance

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

(293.4)

161.4

50.0

iscal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

270.8 118.0 (2.9) 0.9 (0.5)

272.9 125.3 (3.0) (2.2) (0.5)

275.1 132.1 (3.0) (2.3) (0.5)

277.2 138.4 (3.1) (2.3) (0.6)

(1.1) 1.5 4.2 7.2 1.4 399.4

2.8 1.5 4.3 7.4 1.4 410.0

2.9 1.5 4.4 7.6 1.5 419.2

3.0 1.6 4.5 7.8 1.5 427.9

(182.6) (1.5) (184.1)

(186.4) (1.6) (188.0)

(190.4) (1.6) (191.9)

(194.4) (1.6) (196.0)

215.3

222.0

227.2

231.9

(215.3)

(222.0)

(227.2)

(231.9)

(215.3)

(222.0)

(227.2)

(231.9)

0.0

(0.0)

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Debt 2008

2009

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

Beginning cash Cash floor Cash flow available for debt service

161.4 50.0 181.9

Cash available for debt repayment

293.4

Revolving credit facility Beginning balance Issuance / (repayment) Ending balance Interest expense Commitment fee

150.0 (150.0) 150.0 4.9 0.8

Cash available for debt repayment Term loan facility Beginning balance Issuance / (repayment) Ending balance Interest expense

143.4

1,750.0

1,750.0 (143.4) 1,606.6 109.1

Cash available for debt repayment Senior unsecured notes Beginning balance Issuance / (repayment) Ending balance Interest expense

900.0 900.0

900.0 72.0

Cash available for debt repayment Capital leases Beginning balance Issuance / (repayment) Ending balance Interest expense Debt summary Revolving credit facility Term loan facility Senior unsecured notes Capital leases Total

65.3 65.3

150.0 1,750.0 900.0 65.3 2,865.3

65.3 10.1

1,606.6 900.0 65.3 2,571.9

Interest expense Revolving credit facility Term loan facility Senior unsecured notes Capital leases Total Cash balance Cash interest income Interest expense, net

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

5.6 109.1 72.0 10.1 196.8 161.4

50.0 1.1 195.8

iscal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

50.0 50.0 215.3

50.0 50.0 222.0

50.0 50.0 227.2

50.0 50.0 231.9

215.3

222.0

227.2

231.9

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

215.3

222.0

227.2

231.9

1,606.6 (215.3) 1,391.4 97.4

1,391.4 (222.0) 1,169.4 83.2

1,169.4 (227.2) 942.1 68.6

942.1 (231.9) 710.2 53.7

900.0

900.0

900.0

900.0

900.0 72.0

900.0 72.0

900.0 72.0

900.0 72.0

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3

65.3 10.1

65.3 10.1

65.3 10.1

65.3 10.1

1,391.4 900.0 65.3 2,356.7

1,169.4 900.0 65.3 2,134.7

942.1 900.0 65.3 1,907.4

710.2 900.0 65.3 1,675.5

1.5 97.4 72.0 10.1 181.0

1.5 83.2 72.0 10.1 166.8

1.5 68.6 72.0 10.1 152.2

1.5 53.7 72.0 10.1 137.3

50.0 0.5

50.0 0.5

50.0 0.5

50.0 0.5

180.5

166.3

151.7

136.8

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Calculations

Beginning PP&E Capex Depreciation Ending PP&E

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

2008

2009

178.2

204.0

1,013.2 150.3

1,013.2

1,014.1

Beginning retained earnings Net income Dividends Ending retained earnings

1,014.1 178.8 101.4 1,091.5 1,500.0 252.2

1,500.0

1,752.2

Revenue projection

Revenues Company restaurant Franchise Property Total

2008

2009

1,795.9 537.2 121.6 2,454.7

1,880.5 543.4 113.5 2,537.4

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011 1,839.3 549.2 113.7 2,502.2

1,885.6 555.3 113.7 2,554.6

Restaurant COGS projection

Restaurant expenses Food, paper, and product costs Payroll and employee benefits Occupancy and other operating costs Total

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

2008

2009

564.3 534.7 439.0 1,538.0

603.7 582.2 457.8 1,643.7

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011 585.0 568.7 461.1 1,614.8

580.9 564.2 453.9 1,598.9

scal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

1,091.5 182.6 109.2 1,164.9

1,164.9 186.4 116.5 1,234.9

1,234.9 190.4 123.5 1,301.8

1,301.8 194.4 130.2 1,366.0

1,752.2 270.8

2,023.0 272.9

2,295.9 275.1

2,570.9 277.2

2,023.0

2,295.9

2,570.9

2,848.1

scal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

1,981.9 567.7 113.7 2,663.3

2,031.8 574.0 113.7 2,719.5

2,083.0 580.4 113.7 2,777.1

scal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

625.9 607.9 489.0 1,722.9

641.7 623.2 501.4 1,766.3

1,933.2 561.5 113.7 2,608.3

595.5 578.4 465.3 1,639.2

610.5 593.0 477.0 1,680.5

All numbers in $mm except per share data

Metrics

Operating metrics Revenue growth EBIT margin EBITDA margin Profit margin Credit metrics Total debt Net debt Total debt / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA Total debt / (EBITDA - Capex) EBITDA / Interest expense

© One-Eyed Capitalist (www.oneeyedcapitalist.blogspot.com)

2008

2009

0 0 0

0 0 0 0

For fiscal year ending June 30, 2010 2011

() 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

2,571.9 2,521.9 5.1 5.0 8.4 2.5

iscal year ending June 30, 2012 2013

2014

2015

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

2,356.7 2,306.7 4.4 4.3 6.6 3.0

2,134.7 2,084.7 3.9 3.8 5.6 3.3

1,907.4 1,857.4 3.4 3.3 4.7 3.7

1,675.5 1,625.5 2.9 2.9 3.9 4.1

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