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Page 1 Back of the Net

by

James Leadbetter

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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LEGAL NOTICE Disclaimer & Terms of Use

This e-book has been put together for educational purposes only; it is not a guarantee that you will make a profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very good living from football, but trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to "get rich quick". This book shares a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you decide to trade using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for your own actions. Your success or income level cannot be guaranteed. The author shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties. It is your responsibility to comply with gaming laws wherever you are. In regions where gambling is illegal, this e-book must be used for informational purposes only. Any links in this e-book which lead to a third-party website must only be used when the local laws allow. You are not permitted to distribute this e-book and it may not be altered in any way. It may not be shared or sold. If you think you may have a problem with gambling, there is plenty of help out there for you. All of these websites offer advice and assistance:-

http://www.gamcare.org.uk/ http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/ http://www.gamblingtherapy.org/ http://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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Contents Welcome ................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Daily Selections ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 First Half Goals (FHG) .............................................................................................................................................. 6 FHG Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Second Half Goals (SHG) ....................................................................................................................................... 10 SHG Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Trading on the Move ............................................................................................................................................ 16 Good Luck! ............................................................................................................................................................ 17

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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Welcome The excellent Team Stats module from “Goal Profits” has allowed us to look at new and innovative ways of making great profits from Betfair football markets. In this manual I will clearly explain how easy it is to trade two successful strategies that I have made available to subscribers. But first a little about me: “I started trading football matches on Betfair in 2009, the sport has always been a big part of my life. I’ve been a Southend United supporter since 1988 so I’m very much accustomed to the ups and downs of “the beautiful game!” At first I had very mixed results, most of my selections were made on instinct as I had very little concept of “value” at that stage. Knowing what I do today I would now consider myself as just another punter back then, relying mostly on luck to turn a profit over the long-term (which of course I didn’t!). In 2012 I had the very good fortune to join the “FootyTrading” service run by Kevin Laverick (who you already know!). I learnt an awful lot from Kevin and his service, even meeting him in person for a one-to-one Correct Score training session which proved invaluable. My trading journey and Betfair bankroll took a distinct upturn. In 2013 I was pointed in the direction of “Goal Profits” and continued to learn from another master trader in Steve Brown. By April 2013 I had started to look at developing my own strategies and hit upon an extremely simple lay system which profited from predicting fixtures that would see at least one second half goal. The results were excellent and with the help of Steve and Team Stats this led to the launch of the SHG (Second Half Goals) service in August 2013. After SHG it seemed only logical that a First Half Goals system (FHG) would be a possibility. Having trialled numerous filters to identify the strongest selections FHG was also launched on January 1st 2014.” Both strategies rely heavily on one vitally-important keyword – value. The price you are being offered has to represent good value when compared to the statistical chances of winning your bet. Betting with value is absolutely critical to success; if you trade without it then you simply cannot make money over the long-term.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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Daily Selections You will receive a daily e-mail listing all BotN selections for the following day. I send the email out at approximately 9pm UK time, even if there are no selections. Below is an example:

This email contains all the information you need for both BotN strategies. I also number the selections so that you are able to discuss them in the Goal Profits chat room should you wish.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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First Half Goals (FHG) So let’s talk about the process of trading the first system, FHG. While it’s a statistical fact that more goals are scored in the second half of games than the first this is tempered by the lower lay odds when laying 0-0 in the “Half Time Score” market compared to laying the current score in the main CS market at HT. A lower strike rate is therefore required to make good profits. During testing the strike rate was 81.7% which produced an ROI of 11.3%. The average lay price was 3.76 (£27.60 investment to £10 stakes) with an average profit per trade of £3.11. This is a very simple “set-and-forget” system which means it’s great for those who don’t have time to monitor trades in-play. You can open your positions in the morning after receiving my BotN selections e-mail and after placing your FHG bets there is nothing to do other than check the first half scoreline at HT to see if it’s a winner. For each FHG selection, go to the “Half Time Score” market on Betfair of the specified trade. You are going to lay 0-0 in this market (see Marseille vs Montpellier below):

You can see that the price to lay 0-0 is at 3.05. This is a particularly low price which is good news because the lower the price, the lower the liability if the bet loses. You are going to lay 0-0 at 3.05 for £10. The liability at 3.05 for a £10 stake is: (3.05-1) x £10 = £20.50 If the score is 0-0 at HT you lose £20.50, if there is a first half goal you win £10 (minus Betfair commission).

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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NOTE: There is no gap between the blue “Back” and pink “Lay” price in this example. If a market is low on liquidity there may be a gap between the prices when you log in.

You can see below that there is a significant gap between the back and lay 0-0 prices for Cardiff City vs Arsenal.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

Page 8 Back of the Net Logging in to Betfair and laying 0-0 just before kick-off is one option. If this isn’t possible though then it’s not a problem. All you need to do is place a lay order at the lay price listed on my selections e-mail. Press the pink 3.6 lay button and change the lay odds to my listed price (in this case let’s say I have listed this as 3.3). Click “Submit.” You will be “unmatched.”

Click “Go to My Bets” and highlight the “Keep” option. Then click “Update.”

This will now ensure that your lay bet at 3.3 is held on the system after kick off and you will be matched quickly (or maybe even before kick off if you’re lucky). Make sure the “Keep” option is highlighted though or if your bet is not matched by kick-off then it will be cancelled by Betfair. The maximum price I will ever lay at is 4.0. If the “Half Time Score” market is showing a 0-0 lay price between 4.1 and 5.0 pre-match then put a “keep” order in to lay 0-0 at 4.0. IMPORTANT: If a selection shows a lay price over 5.0 by KO then discard the trade and cancel your 4.0 order.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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FHG Summary    

You are laying 0-0 in the “Half Time Score” market. If you are unable to be matched straight away then you need to put a lay order in at the price listed on my e-mail (making sure that the “Keep” option is highlighted). If a selection has a lay price between 4.1 and 5.0 by KO then put a “keep” lay order in at 4.0. You will be matched quickly in-play. Do not trade any selection that has a lay price of over 5.0 at kick-off.

If you are a more conservative trader, you have the option of laying the draw in the “Half Time” market instead at a lower price. You should be aware though that this method requires you to log in and trade out after a goal to take your profit so would be unsuitable if you don’t have time to monitor trades in-play.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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Second Half Goals (SHG) SHG is an extremely robust system and produces solid, long-term profits. During testing the strike rate was 84.3% which produced an ROI of 7.9%. The average lay price was 4.4 (£34.00 investment to £10 stakes) with an average profit per trade of £2.69. Now on the face of it you can be forgiven for thinking that this strategy makes less profit than FHG, however SHG is the main breadwinner over the longer term due to the fact that it produces a higher volume of selections than FHG. Let’s look at the process of trading SHG. Again it’s an extremely simple system and (like FHG) relies heavily on value prices. The major benefit of SHG is that good value is not the only reassurance you will have on your side. Selections only qualify for this system if the first half has been lively, therefore you are safe in the knowledge that you have “everything batting for you” in the second half.

Half-Time Score I’m a firm believer that the number of goals scored in the first half can have an effect on the number of goals scored in the second half, particularly if the first half goal count is well above average. The half time score does play a part in whether I decide to enter an SHG trade. If the first half goal count is 3 or more I will leave the selection alone and wait for a better opportunity. Often a lot of goals in the first half will lead to one (or both!) managers looking to tighten up at the back in the second half and this can affect the chance of a winning trade. I don’t want to be getting involved with selections that are 3-0/0-3 etc anyway at half-time as the game could be effectively over by then, but I also steer clear of 2-1/1-2’s too. Any fixture with no more than 2 goals scored in the first half is fine for trading.

In-Play Stats The number of corners and shots on target between the two sides at half-time plays a major part in this strategy. The acceptable criteria are very simple:  

4 corners and 4 shots on target between the two sides. If there are just 3 corners then I will accept a trade if there have also been at least 7 shots on target between the two sides.

IMPORTANT: If the corner count is lower than 3 then discard the trade. Also discard the selection if the shots on target are lower than 4, regardless of a high corner count.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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OK so let’s look at an example SHG trade from Finland:

You can clearly see that the above fixture qualifies for SHG on in-play stats. The corner and shot counts are more than sufficient, while the 1-1 HT score is within the “2 goal maximum” filter at half-time.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

Page 12 Back of the Net You can now head over to Betfair: Let’s say that the maximum lay price for value that I have listed on the daily e-mail for this game is 4.4.

The price to lay 1-1 is lower than 4.4 and so you have excellent value here to lay 1-1, especially with the very promising in-play stats on your side. NOTE: Although the current lay odds on the screenshot are showing 3.95 I was matched a few minutes before this at 3.8. Nothing left to do now but wait for a goal. It didn’t take long as the away side re-took the lead on 48 minutes and the trade was a winner.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

Page 13 Back of the Net Red Cards I don’t trade ANY game that has seen a red card in the first half. Red cards ruin games and destroy statistics; it’s simply not worth the risk. The longer a game goes on the more the team down to ten men will likely shut up shop if they’re not losing. Don’t get involved in games you shouldn’t or it will take its toll on your Betfair balance.

The Bet365 Console The above in-play screenshots from Finland are taken from the Bet365 console. This is where I always obtain my in-play stats at HT, it really is a fantastic website/app and I’ve found it gives the most accurate representation of virtually any game being played in world football at that time. I trust the stats and their help in deciding on qualifiers for SHG is invaluable. Let’s take a look at a few more screenshots, these will give you a visual representation of what in-play stats I deem acceptable for trading:

You can see in the above fixture that Roma have picked up a red card. In reality they were reduced to ten men very early in the second half but let’s pretend in this instance that they had a man dismissed in the first half. Despite the corner and shots on target stats comfortably qualifying this would still not be a trade I would look to get into due to the red card. In this case Roma did make a brilliant recovery to draw 2-2 but getting involved here is more of a gamble than a trade. Don’t gamble; pick your trades based on value and with everything on your side to give you the best possible chance of a positive outcome.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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The above game from Turkey is a little different. Firstly you can see that the in-play stats in this one don’t qualify for SHG as they are a corner short. Let’s pretend that there are 4 corners in this game instead of 3 so that on paper it is a qualifier for the system (depending on Betfair price of course). I still wouldn’t be looking to trade the above game as SHG and here’s why: the away side are 1-0 down and are yet to have a single shot on target. In situations where one team is leading at half-time the trailing side must have made some kind of contribution to the shots on target statistics, even if it’s just one. The home side don’t need to score again to win the game; they may do so of course in the second half but they don’t have to if the opposition can’t find the net themselves. So I do need a trailing side to have mustered at least one SOT in the first half in order to accept the trade. This match finished 1-0. NOTE: If the score is 0-0 at half-time and one of the two teams hasn’t had a shot on target then that’s not a problem. As long as the in-play stats still qualify then the game is fine for trading.

While the above selection from the Premier League is a comfortable qualifier on in-play stats at half-time I would discard this trade due to the 1-2 scoreline which exceeds my “2 goals maximum” filter for the first half. This match finished 1-2.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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This game from Belgium has only 3 corners at half-time. However, because the shots on target figures add up to my minimum of 7, this is still a qualifier for SHG if the price is right. The match finished 0-2.

Finally, here is a qualifier from League One. This is a textbook SHG trade, lots of corners and plenty of shots on target. It flies past the filters and the final score was 1-1.

Maximum Lay Prices If Betfair is showing a lay price above 6.0 for any fixture then do not trade it. If the Betfair lay price is 6.0 or below and is also lower than the attached value lay price in the selections e-mail then you have a possible trade. In this instance:  

If the lay price is between 5.1 and 6.0, place a lay order at 5.0 and wait to be matched in-play. If the lay price is 5.0 or under, get matched immediately by laying at that price.

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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SHG Summary      

There must be no more than 2 goals scored in the first half. In-play stats must show at least 4 corners and 4 shots on target between the two sides OR 3 corners with at least 7 shots on target between the two sides. If the side trailing at HT have had no shots on target then discard the trade. Do not enter a trade with a first half red card. Make sure that the Betfair price to lay the HT score is equal to or lower than the value price listed on the selections e-mail. The maximum lay price is 5.0. If the Betfair lay price is between 5.1 and 6.0 at HT then place a lay order at 5.0 and wait to be matched in-play.

Trading on the Move Due to the wonders of modern technology, we are no longer stuck in front of a PC and can trade anywhere we like via smartphone, iPad, etc. I do a lot of my trading “on the move” and the two strategies explained in this manual are extremely quick and simple for mobile trading. If you haven’t already got it then I would strongly advise downloading Futbol24, it’s a fantastic mobile app that allows you to add games from my selections e-mail to your favourites list. Futbol24 then gives you half-time alerts for these fixtures so that you know exactly when to check in-play stats and price to see if you have a trade. It’s an app I’ve been using for a long time now and I don’t know what I’d do without it!

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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Good Luck! There is one main attribute a trader must have to be successful: DISCIPLINE! Both BotN strategies are extremely straightforward. The FHG selections are set-and-forget and can be set up each morning if you don’t have the time to monitor the price close to kick-off. If you follow SHG rules to the letter then there is no thinking to be done with this strategy either; it’s all done for you. Each time you find yourself thinking, “hmmm this SHG selection doesn’t qualify but it’s only one shot on target short so what the hell I’ll play it” remember that each and every loss will take 3-4 winning trades to recover. People who trade SHG with discipline will make very nice profits and those who do not will struggle. Simple. “Money saved is the same as money won!” I made mistakes in the beginning but I am more disciplined now than I was when I first started. There is no need to take unnecessary risks. The Team Stats software at Goal Profits gives me stats for over sixty leagues throughout the year so I can cherry-pick the strongest trades for you. I wish you the very best of luck with your trading. If you have any questions then feel free to contact me at [email protected]

Kind Regards, James

Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved

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