Beyond Income Redrawing Asias Consumer Map Discussion Paper

 

Wld Futurd cf Ks`k

Edycog `oacid Edycog `oacid>> Udgrk Udgr kw`oj Ks`k Ks`k‐‐s acosuidr acosu idr ikp ikp

G`sauss`co pkpdr

Qdptdiedr 5=5; Kutlcrs

Ch`vdr Wcoey, Q`ojkpcrd Ncoktlko Zcdtzdh, Qlkojlk` Ucl`t Ukzgko, Q`ojkpcrd Zcos`b Alc`, Qdcuh Qvdo Qi`t, Kistdrgki Okci` Pkikbkwk, Wcbyc Ndcoji`o Qdcoj, Qlkojlk` W`kjc Gdvdsk, Qygody

 

IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tut @ost`tutdd

Q`oad `ts fcuog`oj `o ;00=, tld IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tu @ost`tutd td (IJ@) lks scujlt tc gdvdhcp k gddpdr uogdrstkog`oj cf tld dvchv`oj jhcekh dacociy. Ks tld eus`odss kog dacoci`as rdsdkral rdsd kral kri cf IaB`osdy & Acipkoy, IJ@ k`is tc ldhp hdkgdrs `o tld aciidra`kh, pueh`a, kog sca`kh sdatcrs uogdrstkog trdogs kog fcrads slkp`oj tld jhcekh dacociy. IJ@ rdsdkral acie`ods tld g`sa`ph`ods cf dacoci`as kog ikokjdidot, diphcy`oj tld kokhyt`akh tcchs cf dacoci`as w`tl tld `os`jlts cf eus`odss hdkgdrs. Cur ‘i`arctc-ikarc’ idtlcgchcjy dxki`ods i`arcdacoci`a `ogustry trdogs tc edttdr uogdrstkog tld erckg ikarcdacoci`a fcrads kffdat`oj eus`odss strktdjy kog pueh`a pch`ay. IJ@‐s `o-gdptl rdpcrts lkvd acvdrdg icrd tlko 5= acuotr`ds kog 1= `ogustr`ds. Aurrdot rdsdkral fcausds co s`x tldids> prcguat`v`ty kog jrcwtl, okturkh rdscurads, hkecr ikrbdts, tld dvchut`co cf jhcekh f`okoa`kh ikrbdts, tld dacoci`a `ipkat cf tdalochcjy kog `oocvkt`co, kog ureko`zkt`co. IJ@ `s hdg ey tlrdd IaB`osdy & Acipkoy sdo`cr pkrtodrs> ac-alk`rs Nkids Ikoy`bk kog Qvdo Qi`t kog g`rdatcr Ncoktlko Zcdtzdh. I`alkdh Alu`, Idbkhk Br`sloko, Qusko Huog, Kou Ikgjkvbkr, Nko I`salbd, Nkkok Udids, Ndcoji`o Qdcoj, kog W`hiko Wkabd krd IJ@ pkrtodrs. pkrtodr s. ]rcndat tdkis krd hdg ey tld IJ@ pkrtodrs kog `oahugd acosuhtkots frci IaB`osdy cff`ads krcuog tld wcrhg. Wldsd tdkis grkw co IaB`osdy‐s jhcekh odtwcrb cf pkrtodrs pkr todrs kog `ogustry kog ikokjdidott dxpdrts. ikokjdido Wld IJ@ Acuoa`h `s ikgd up cf IaB`osdy hdkgdrs kog `oahugds `oahugd s Ldikot Klhkwkt, I`alkdh E`rslko, Kogràs Akgdok, Qkogr`od Gdv`hhkrg, Kogrà Guk, Bwd`h`o Dhh`ojrug, Bkty Jdcrjd, Uknkt Juptk, Dr`a Lkzko, Qchvd`jl L`drco`ius, Kalk Hdbd, Ahkr`ssd Ikjo`o Ikhhdz, Nur`ak Ocvkb, Jkry ]`obus, Lki`g Qkikogkr`, Qlk Qlk, Ch`vdr Wcoey, Wcoey, kog D Dabkrt abkrt Z`oglkjdo. Z`ogl kjdo. Wld Acuoa`h idiedrs ldh ldhp p slkpd tld rdsdkral kjdogk, hdkg l`jl-`ipkat rdsdkral, kog slkrd tld f`og`ojs w`tl gda`s`co ikbdrs krcuog tld wcrhg. @o kgg`t`co, hdkg`oj dacoci`sts, dacoci`st s, `oahug`oj Ocedh hkurdktds, kgv`sd IJ@ rdsdkral. Wl`s rdpcrt acotr`eutds tc IJ@‐s i`ss`co tc ldhp eus`odss kog pch`ay pch`a y hdkgdrs uogdrstkog tld fcrads trkosfcri`oj trkos fcri`oj tld jhcekh dacociy kog prdpkrd fcr tld odxt wkvd cf jrcwtl. Ks w`tl khh IJ@ rdsdkral kog rdpcrts, rdpcrt s, tl`s wcrb `s `ogdpdogdot kog rdfhdats cur cwo v`dws. Wl`s rdpcrt rdpcr t wks oct acii`ss`codg cr pk`g fcr ey koy eus`odss,, jcvdroidot, cr ctldr `ost`tut`co, kog `t `s oct `otdogdg tc prcictd tld eus`odss `otdrdsts cf IaB`osdy‐s ah`dots. ah`dots . Fcr furtldr `ofcrikt`co kecut IJ@ kog tc gcwohckg rdpcrts, phdksd v`s`t  v`s`t www.iab`osdy.aci/ij`. www.iab`osdy.aci/ij` .

 

Acotdots @o er`df

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;. Qurj`oj up tld `oacid pyrki`g

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5. Wdo acosuidr sl`fts sl`f ts tlkt ikttdr

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1. Edycog `oacid> Vkhud sl`fts sl`ft s tc odw acosuipt`co aurvds

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7. W`id tc rdgrkw Ks`k‐s Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

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Dp`hcjud> @ikj`od futurds

:5

Wdalo`akh Wda lo`akh kppdog`x

::

Kabocwhdgjidots

Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

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@o er`df

Edycog `oacid> Udgrkw`oj Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐ Ks`k‐ss acosuidr acosuidr ikp Ks`k `s tld wcrhg‐s acosuipt`co jrcwtl doj`od‗i`ss Ks`k kog ycu acuhg i`ss lkhf tld jhcekh p`aturd, p`atu rd, k $;= tr`hh`co acosuipt`co jrcwtl cppcrtuo`ty cvdr tld odxt gdakgd. Qakhd acot`ouds tc ed k bdy alkrkatdr`st`a, alkrkatdr`st`a , eut tld stcry cf tld odxt tdo ydkrs kog edycog `s cod cf r`s`oj g`vdrs`ty `o acosuidr ikrbdts ki`g s`jo`f`akot sca`kh, gdicjrkpl`a, kog tdalochcj`akh alkojd. Wlrdd alkojds `o pdrspdat`vd pdrspd at`vd krd bdy tc uogdrstkog`oj tld odw acosuipt`co pktls ed`oj trk`hehkzdg ey Ks`k‐s acosuidrs. Wld f`rst `s tlkt ks `oacids r`sd karcss Ks`k, icrd acosuidrs w`hh rdkal tld l`jldst t`drs t`dr s cf tld `oacid pyrki`g, kog icvdidot w`tl`o tld acosui`oj ahkss ahks s `s h`bdhy tc ed k hkrjdr gr`vdr cf acosuipt`co jrcwtl tlko icvdidot `otc `t. Wld sdacog `s tlkt a`t`ds w`hh acot`oud a cot`oud tc ed tld gr`vdr cf acosuipt`co jrcwtl, eut prci`s`oj scurads cf jrcwtl krd `oardks`ojhy g`vdrsd aclcrts w`tl`o a`t`ds, sual ks @ostk-jrkoo`ds `o Qdcuh, Jdodrkt`co ^ jkidrs `o Qurkekyk, akrddr icis `o Iko`hk, cr h`fdstyhd-`oguhj`oj h`fdstyhd-`oguhj`oj g`j`tkh okt`vds `o Aldojgu. Wl`rg, ks tld rdhkt`cosl`p edtwddo `oacid kog acosuipt`co erdkbs gcwo `o scid `ostkoads, odw acosuipt`co aurvds krd didrj`oj `o spda`f`a prcguat aktdjcr`ds‗`oacid-gr`v aktdjcr`ds ‗`oacid-gr`vdo do Q-aurvds iky fhkttdo ks eus`odss eus`ods s `oocvkt`co kog odw tdalochcj`ds dokehd icrd pdcphd, dvdo co hcwdr `oacids, tc kaadss kog kffcrg jccgs kog sdrv`ads. ]krt cf k sdr`ds co tld futurd cf Ks`k, tl`s rdsdkral fcausds fcaus ds co tld rdj`co‐s acosuidr ikrbdts, survdy`oj tld cuthccb fcr acosuipt`co kog `gdot`fy`oj ikncr sl`fts `o acosuipt`co pkttdros cvdr tld odxt gdakgd. Bdy f`og`ojs `oahugd tld fchhcw`oj. Frci pdcphd icv`oj `otc tld acosui`oj ahkss tc icv`oj w`tl`o tld acosui`oj ahkss. Edtwddo 5===

kog 5=5=, ;.4 e`hh`co odw acosuidrs  nc`odg tld acosui`oj ahkss (spdog`oj

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icrd tlko $;; k gky `o puralks`oj pcwdr pkr`ty tdris), kog ko kgg`t`cokh e`hh`co iky fchhcw cvdr tld odxt gdakgd. Wldsd odw acosuidrs krd dxpdatdg dxpda tdg tc kttk`o l`jldr `oacid hdvdhs tlko pkst  nc`odrs, sl`ft`oj sl`ft` oj tld adotdr cf jrkv`ty cf tld `oacid pyrki`g slkrphy upwkrg kog alkoj`oj acosuipt`co pkttdros. @o tld pkst 5= ydkrs, Lcw Ks`k ako eccst jrcwtl tlrcujl tdalochcj tdalochcj`akh `akh hdkpfrcjj`oj hdkpfrcjj`oj,, IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd, Gdadiedr 1

5=5=.   Fcr icrd co acosuipt`co `o tld kjd cf ACV@G󰀩;0, sdd, fcr `ostkoad, Tgc Bcpbk, Dhgco H`tthd, Ndss`ak Icuhtco, Udoà Qaliutzhdr, kog ]ktr`ab Q`ico , ‘Zlkt jct us ldrd wco‐t jdt us tldrd> K odw icgdh fcr tld acosuidr jccgs `ogustr y,’ Nuhy 5=5=, IaB`osdy.aci2 kog Wld acosuidr gdikog rdacvdry kog hkst`oj dffdats cf ACV@G󰀩;0, ACV@G󰀩;0, IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd, Ikral 5=5;.

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5

IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd

 

Ecx ;

Uceust acosuipt`co jrcwtl `o Ks`k akooct ed tkbdo fcr jrkotdg Ks`k‐s jrcwtl pctdot`kh `s kaacipko`dg ey r`sbs. Wld wky eus`odssds, `ovdstcrs, acosuidrs, kog jcvdroidots wcrb tcjdtldr tc kggrdss scurads cf strdss `s h`bdhy tc lkvd k prcfcuog `ipkat co Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikrbdts kog `ofhudoad wldtldr tldy rdkal tld`r fuhh pctdot`kh. Wwc alkhhdojds `o pkrt`auhkr acuhg

cf tld pyrki`g lks fkhhdo `o ikoy Ks`ko dacoci`ds, `oahug`oj icst cf Kgvkoadg Ks`k (`oahug`oj Kustrkh`k, Nkpko, kog Qcutl Bcrdk). @o 5=;0 `o tldsd acuotr`ds, tld ecttci 4= pdradot cf tld `oacid g`str`eut`co acotrchhdg twc tc f`vd pdradotkjd pc`ots hdss cf tctkh `oacid tlko tldy g`g `o ;00=. K s`i`hkr

`ofhudoad tld cuthccb fcr, kog pkttdros cf, acosuipt`co.

pldocidoco `s cesdrvdg `o Al`ok kog @og`k, wldrd tld slkrd lks grcppdg ey sdvdo pdradotkjd pc`ots. Wld pkttdro `s rdvdrsdg `o ikoy dacoci`ds cf Didrj`oj Ks`k, `oahug`oj Ikhkys`k, tld ]l`h`pp`ods, Wlk`hkog, kog V`dtoki, w`tl tld ecttci 4= pdradot ey `oacid `oardks`oj tld`r slkrd cf tctkh `oacid edtwddo ;00= kog 5=;0. 5 

@oacid kog wdkhtl `odqukh`ty. 

@oacids karcss Ks`k krd r`s`oj, kog fdwdr lcusdlchgs krd dxpdr`doa`oj sakra`t y. Lcwdvdr Lcwdvdr,, k hkrjd ouiedr cf hcwdr-`oacid lcusdlchgs rdik`o vuhodrkehd. Dvdo `o 5=1=, ks ikoy ks ;.7 e`hh`co acosuidrs iky i ky acot`oud tc ed edhcw tld acosui`oj ahkss (sdd Ecx 5 fcr k gdf`o`t`co cf tld acosui`oj ahkss). @odqukh`ty acot`ouds tc ed k s`jo`f`akot fkatcr `o Ks`k. @o 5=;0, acosuidrs `o Ks`k `o tld ecttci 4= pdradot pdra dot cf tld `oacid g`str`eut`co lkg k slkrd cf tctkh `oacid cf edtwddo ;5 kog 5= pdradot, kaacrg`oj tc tld Zcrhg @odqukh`ty Gktkeksd, Gktkeks d, wl`hd tlcsd `o tld tcp ;= pdradot cf tld `oacid g`str`eut`co kaacuotdg fcr 11 tc 4: pdradot cf tctkh `oacid. Lcwdvdr, pkttdros vkry dx dxtdos`vdhy tdos`vdhy `o tld rdj`co (prdv`cus IJ@ rdsdkral l`jlh`jltdg ‘fcur Ks`ks’‗g`st`oat ehcas cf dacoci`ds w`tl`o tld rdj`co, dkal w`tl g`ffdrdot alkrkatdr`st`as `o tld wky tldy `otdrkat w`tl cod koctldr kog tld rdst cf tld wcrhg).; Q`oad ;00=, tld slkrd cf `oacid cf acosuidrs kt tld ecttci

Zdkhtl `odqukh`ty `s krjukehy dvdo icrd prcocuoadg `o tld rdj`co. @o icst Ks`ko acuotr`ds, tld ecttci 4= pdradot cf tld pcpuhkt`co wks dst`iktdg tc cwo hdss tlko ;4 pdradot cf cvdrkhh wdkhtl, kog ks h`tthd ks 1 pdradot `o @og`k kog @ogcods`k `o 5=;0. 1 @odqukh`ty iky lkvd eddo dxkadrektdg `o 5=5= edakusd cf tld ACV@G󰀩;0 pkogdi`a, wl`al wks rdjrdss`vd, l`tt`oj hcw`oacid lcusdlchgs tld lkrgdst. Dvdo ks dacoci`ds rdacvdr, `odqukh`ty iky `oardksd furtldr. 7 Wld Ks`ko Gdvdhcpidot Ekob dst`iktds tlkt tld ouiedr cf pdcphd h`v`oj `o pcvdrty (gdf`odg ks h`v`oj w`tl hdss tlko $1.5= $1 .5= k gky `o puralks`oj pcwdr pkr`ty tdris) `o Ks`k iky lkvd `oardksdg ey icrd tlko ;:= i`hh`co `o 5=5= gud tc tld dffdats dffdat s cf tld pkogdi`a.4 

Ah`iktd g`srupt`co. Ks`k `s co tld

frcot h`od cf ah`iktd r`sb, kaacuot`oj fcr twc-tl`rgs cf tld jhcekh r`sb r`s b cf dacoci`a g`srupt`co rdsuht`oj frci alkojds `o tld okturkh wcrhg, kaacrg`oj tc IJ@ rdsdkral. 6 @o Ks`k, ey 5=4=, $5.< tr`hh`co tc $7.: tr`hh`co cf JG] acuhg ed kt r`sb kooukhhy gud tc hkecr prcguat`v`ty kffdatdg ey dxtrdid ldkt kog lui`g`ty, kog $;.5 tr`hh`co cf plys`akh akp`tkh stcab acuhg ed gkikjdg ey r`vdr`od fhccg`oj `o k j`vdo ydkr.: Wld dacoci`a gkikjd kr`s`oj frci tldsd pldocidok iky aurtk`h acosuipt`co ks acosuidr `oacids krd acostrk`odg ey hcwdr dacoci`a jrcwtl. Cvdr aci`oj gdakgds, icst Ks`kos iky ed kffdatdg kffda tdg `o scid wky, alkoj`oj tld wky tldy acosuid ks k rdsuht‗fcr rdsuh t‗fcr `ostkoad, icg`fy`oj tld`r puralks`oj lke`ts tc euy icrd sustk`okehd cpt`cos, cr spdog`oj icrd t`id `ogccrs tc kvc`g k`r pchhut`co cr dxtrdid ldkt. Ah`iktd r`sb `s h`bdhy tc g`sprcpcrt`coktdhy fkhh co tlcsd w`tl hcwdr `oacids, pctdot`khhy rd`ofcra`oj r`s`oj `odqukh`ty. Treko acosuipt`co `s pkrt`auhkrhy kt r`sb. Cvdr tld odxt tdo ydkrs, 7= pdradot cf Ks`k‐s ureko acosuipt`co jrcwtl `s prcndatdg tc ed gr`vdo ey 4= a`t`ds, kog 74 cf tldsd krd kt l`jl r`sb r`s b cf twc cr icrd typds cf ah`iktd g`srupt`co, kaacrg`oj tc Wl`obLkzkrg! Kgvkoadg Ks`k, `oahug`oj Kustrkh`k, Nkpko, Odw ^dkhkog, Q`ojkpcrd, kog Qcutl Bcrdk2 Didrj`oj Ks`k, `oahug`oj @ogcods`k, Ikhkys`k, tld ]l`h`pp`ods, Wlk`hkog, kog V`dtoki2 @og`k kog Frcot`dr Ks`k, `oahug`oj Ekojhkgdsl kog ]kb`stko2 kog Al`ok. Dxadpt wldo `og`aktdg, stkt`st`as fcr Al`ok cohy `oahugd ik`ohkog Al`ok , kog dxahugd Lcoj Bcoj QKU, Ikaku QKU, cr Wk`wko. Fcr icrd gdtk`h co tld fcur Ks`ks, sdd Wld futurd cf Ks`k> Ks`ko fhcws kog odtwcrbs krd gdf`o`oj tld odxt plksd cf jhcekh`zkt`co, jhcekh`zkt`co, IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd, Qdptdiedr 5=;0. 5   Zcrhg @odqukh`ty Gktkeksd . ]kttdros vkry dxtdos`vdhy acuotry ey acuotry, `o g`ffdrdot t`id lcr`zcos. @odqukh`ty `s k aciphdx tcp`a kog iky ed idksurdg us`oj g`ffdrdot idtr`as. 1   Jhcekh wdkhtl gktkeccb 5=;0, Ardg`t 5=;0,  Ardg`t Qu`ssd, Catcedr 5=;0. 7   Udvdrskhs cf fcrtuod, fcrtuod, ]cvdrty kog Qlkrdg ]rcspdr`ty Qdr`ds, Zcrhg Ekob, Catcedr 5=5=, wcrhgekob.crj. 4    Ks`ko Gdvdhcpidot Cuthccb 5=5;> F`okoa`oj k jrddo kog `oahus`vd rdacvdry , Ks`ko Gdvdhcpidot Ekob, Kpr`h 5=5;. 6   Ah`iktd r`sb kog rdspcosd `o Ks`k, Ks`k , IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd, Ocvdiedr 5=5=. :  <

@e`g. Khh dst`iktds eksdg co UA] (;) dotry-hdvdh acosui`oj ahkss, ahks s, w`tl gk`hy spdog`oj cf edtwddo $;; kog $1=2 (5) dstkeh`sldg dstkeh` sldg acosui`oj ahkss, ahks s, w`tl gk`hy spdog`oj cf $1= tc $:=2 kog ((1) 1) l`jldr acosui`oj ahkss,, w`tl gk`hy spdog`oj cf icrd tlko $:=.7  ahkss @o scid acotdxts, fcr `ostkoad `gdot`f y`oj pcabdts cf jrcwtl w`tl`o a`t`ds fcr j`vdo aktdjcr`ds,, k lcusdlchg v`dw cf `oacid hdvdhs `s k edttdr tcch. Fcr scid aktdjcr`ds, tld aktdjcr`ds uo`t cf acosuipt`co `s cftdo tld lcusdlchg rktldr tlko tld `og`v`gukh, sual ks k s lcusdlchg kpph`koadss cr vdl`ahds. Zd usd sual k lcusdlchg kokhys`s kpph`koad kokhys `s `o alkptdr 5. W Wc c ardktd k lcusdlchg v`dw cf `oacid hdvdhs, tld IaB`osdy A`tysacpd A`tysa cpd gktkeksd tkbds tk bds k t`drdg v`dw cf acosuidrs ey lcusdlchg `oacid hdvdhs w`tl fcur aktdjcr`ds kgnustdg kgnus tdg tc 5=;; puralks`oj pcwdr pkr`ty hdvdhs> kooukh lcusdlchg `oacid edhcw $ Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

0

 

;=

IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd

 

Acipko`ds kog `ovdstcrs wkot`oj tc uogdrstkog uogdrstk og tld`r ikp cf jrcwtl w`hh tldrdfcrd oddg tc lkvd k oukoadg v`dw cf wl`al a`t`ds a `t`ds krd h`bdhy tc ed `o tld vkojuk vkojukrg rg cf acosuipt`co jrcwtl cf g`ffdrdot `oacid sdjidots. sdjidots . Furtldricrd, tldy w`hh oddg tc uogdrstkog tld odw jrcwtl kojhds tlkt iky gr`vd `oardksdg pdr akp`tk acosuipt`co jrcwtl kicoj acosuidrs rdkal`oj tld l`jldr t`drs cf tld `oacid pyrki`g. Lcusdlchgs krd edaci`oj edaci` oj icrd prcspdrcus karcss Ks`k. Wwc typds cf lcusdlchg rdqu`rd spda`kh kttdot`co. kt tdot`co. Wld f`rst `s l`jl-`oacid lcusdlchgs lcus dlchgs tlkt ikbd icrd tlko $ (;) Kgvkoadg Ks`k, `oahug`oj Nkpko, Qcutl Bcrdk,

;5

Kustrkh`k, Odw ^dkhkog, kog Q`ojkpcrd2 (5) Didrj`oj Ks`k, `oahug`oj, kicoj ctldrs, @ogcods`k, Ikhkys`k, tld ]l`h`pp`ods, Wlk`hkog, kog V`dtoki2 (1) @og`k kog Frcot`dr Ks`k, `oahug`oj, kicoj ctldrs, Ekojhkgdsl, Bkzkblstko, kog ]kb`stko2 kog (7) Al`ok. Fcr icrd gdtk`h, sdd Wld futurd cf Ks`k> Ks`ko fhcws kog odtwcrbs krd gdf`o`oj tld odxt plksd cf jhcekh`zkt`co , IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd, Qdptdiedr 5=;0. ;1   A`t`ds rkobdg edtwddo 4= kog 54= `o 5=5= acosuipt`co `o Ks`k.

Edycog `oacid> Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

;;

 

;5

IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd

 

Ks sca`kh, gdicjrkpl`a, kog tdalochcj`akh g`srupt`cos achh`gd, Ks`k‐s acosuidrs krd g`vdrs`fy`oj2 tdo acosuidr sl`fts stkog cut Ks`k lks hcoj eddo ko dxtrdidhy g`vdrsd rdj`co‗dacoci`akhhy, sca`khhy, kog auhturkhhy. Ks sca`cgdicjrkpl`a alkojd ac`oa`gds w`tl kaadhdrkt`oj tdalochcj`akh alkojd, odw fcris cf acosuidr edlkv`cr krd didrj`oj tlkt `o scid rdspdats rdspdat s sdt tld rdj`co‐s acosuidrs kpkrt frci tld`r acuotdrpkrts `o ctldr rdj`cos. Qdvdrkh sl`fts tlkt krd khrdkgy didrj`oj acuhg edacid icrd prci`odot fkatcrs `o tld rdj`co‐s acosuipt`co2 tdo sl`fts sl`f ts acuhg cffdr odw kojhds kojh ds cf jrcwtl fcr acipko`ds sdrv`oj sdr v`oj Ks`ko acosuidrs (D (Dxl`e`t xl`e`t Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

;1

 

Gdicjrkpl`a alkojds krd `ofhudoa`oj tldsd trdogs, w`tl g`ffdr`oj `otdos`t`ds gdpdog`oj co tld acuotry. F`rst, fdrt`h`ty rktds krd gdah`o`oj, fcr `ostkoad `ostkoa d frci 5.< tc 5.5 co kvdrkjd `o Didrj`oj Ks`k frci 5=== tc 5=5=.;6 Al`ok‐s tctkh fdrt`h`ty fdrt`h`t y rktd grcppdg tc ;.1 `o 5=5=, w`tl tld ouiedr cf e`rtls gdardks`oj gda rdks`oj ;< pdradot pdrad ot `o k s`ojhd ydkr, tc rdkal rdkal tld hcwdst hcwds t hdvdh `o khicst 6= ydkrs (sdd Ecx 1, ‘]cpuhkt`co pyrki`gs krd alkoj`oj ks fdrt`h`ty fdrt`h` ty rktds gdah`od’). ;: Qdacog, s`jo`f`akot s`jo`f`ak ot h`fd dvdots krd ed`oj gdhkydg. Fcr dxkiphd, `o tld pkst 5= ydkrs, tld pc`ot kt wl`al pdcphd ikrry lks lk s icvdg cut tlrdd ydkrs `o Al`ok kog Nkpko, kog tld kjd cf lkv`oj al`hgrdo `s s`i`hkrhy gdhkydg.; Dv`gdoad frci k To`tdg Okt`cos gktksdt , gktksdt , Gdpkrtidot cf Dacoci`a kog Qca`kh Kffk`rs ]cpuhkt`co G`v`s`co, 5=;0. 5=   5=;: wl`td pkpdr co kj`oj sca`dty , Ake`odt Cff`ad, Nkpko, 5=;:, akc.jc.np akc.jc.np..

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IaB`osdy Jhcekh @ost`tutd

 

Ecx 1

]cpuhkt`co ]cpuhk t`co pyrki`gs krd k rd alkoj`oj ks fdrt`h`ty rktds gdah`od Zl`hd scid acuotr`ds `o Frcot`dr Ks`k kog Didrj`oj Didrj`oj Ks`k, sual ks k s ]kb`stko kog tld ]l`h`pp`ods, st`hh lkvd fdrt`h`ty rktds cf cvdr 5.4, icst acuotr`ds `o tld rdj`co lkvd eddo dxpdr`doa`oj fkhh`oj fdrt`h`ty rktds. Acuotr`ds sual ks Al`ok,

Nkpko, kog Qcutl Bcrdk lkvd scid cf tld hcwdst fdrt`h`t y rktds `o tld wcrhg. @o acie`okt`co w`tl hcojdr h`fd spkos, tld pcpuhkt`co pyrki`g `s tldrdfcrd sbdw`oj upwkrg (Dxl`e`t ;=). @o Al`ok, tld ouiedr cf `og`v`gukhs kjdg uogdr ;4

Edycog `oacid> Udgrkw`oj Ks`k‐s acosuidr ikp

grcppdg ey khicst := i`hh`co edtwddo 5=== kog 5=5=. Ey 5=1=, tldrd acuhg ed 0= i`hh`co tc ;;4 i`hh`co i`hh` co fdwdr `og`v`gukhs kjdg kjd g edhcw ;4 tlko `o 5===.

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Wld gdardksd `o lcusdlchg lcusdl chg s`zd, jrcwtl `o tld ouiedr cf s`ojhd lcusdlchgs, kog `oardks`oj slkrd cf s`ojhd kguhts `s ardkt`oj odw cppcrtuo`t`ds fcr acipko`ds sdrv`oj Ks`ko acosuidrs. Cod s`jo`f`akot cppcrtuo`ty `s sdrv`oj s`ojhdtcos karcss Ks`k wlc `oardks`ojhy rdhy co g`j`tkh sca`kh acoodat`cos, `oahug`oj sca`kh idg`k. Odw fcris cf acoodat`co acuhg khsc kr`sd, `oahug`oj ‘K@ acipko`cos’ sual ks tld cod rdhdksdg ey \`kc`ad, \`kc`a d, ko dipktldt`a alktect tlkt lks 66= i`hh`co usdrs kog 74= i`hh`co tl`rg-pkrty sikrt gdv`ads jhcekhhy. 5; Koctldr dxkiphd `s tld Nkpkodsd dict`cokh di ct`cokh rcect`as gdv`ad gdv`a d HCVCW, HCVCW, wl`al bddps `ts ecgy tdip tdipdrkturd drkturd kt kecut 1: gdjrdds Adhs`us kog ksbs ksb s fcr lujs. Gdikog fcr HCVCW surjdg icrd tlko ;4-fchg gur`oj tld ACV@G󰀩;0 pkogdi`a `o 5=5=.55 Icrd acovdot`cokhhy, tld r`sd `o tld ouiedr cf `og`v`gukhs h`v`oj khcod lks hdg tc sckr`oj cwodrsl`p cf pdts karcss Ks`k. Ks `k. @o tld pkst f`vd ydkrs, ydkrs , tld ouiedr cf pdts `o Al`ok, Q`ojkpcrd, kog Wlk`hkog lks lk s nuipdg ey ;;7 pdradot, ;5 pdradot, kog 51 pdradot, rdspdat`vdhy. rdspda t`vdhy. @o Qcutl Bcrdk, pdt cwodrsl`p rktds lkvd l kvd surjdg ey 6= pdradot `o 51 tdo ydkrs.   Q`ojhd lcusdlchgs khsc khs c rdqu`rd g`ffdrdot prcguats. prcguats . Wldy krd h`bdhy tc `oahugd fccg gdh`vdry kt lcid kog sikhhdr pcrt`cos cf pkabkjdg pkabkjd g fccg2 `o Nkpko edtwddo 5=;5 kog 5=;0, tld kvdrkjd odt wd`jlt cf sdvdrkh fkst-icv`oj acosuidr jccgs gdardksdg‗ey gdardksd g‗ey < pdradot `o tld aksd cf euttdr kog ks iual ks k s 54 pdradot `o tld aksd cf `ostkot acffdd. 57 Wld r`sd cf tld s`ojhd lcusdlchg iky dvdo hdkg tc sl`fts `o ureko`zkt`co ureko`zk t`co pkttdros ks gdikog fcr s`ojhd-uo`t lcus`oj `oardksds. Q`ojhdtcos tdog tc lkvd icrd t`id fcr tldisdhvds, hdkg`oj hdk g`oj tc jrdktdr gdikog fcr vkr`cus fcris cf hd`surd. Aktdr`oj tc pdcphd dxdra`s`oj kog dvdo pkrt`a pkrt`a`pkt`oj `pkt`oj `o dotdrtk`oidot co tld`r cwo, `o Al`ok tldrd krd i`o` bkrkcbd ecctls (tldsd f`rst kppdkrdg `o Nkpko). 54 @o Nkpko, cod acipkoy `s ikrbdt`oj k schc skuok fka`h`ty akhhdg a khhdg Wuod.56 @o pkrt`auhkr, g`j`tkh dotdrtk`oidot, `oahug`oj jki`oj, v`rtukh rdkh`ty, kog g`j`tkh acotdot sual ks ius`a kog v`gdc strdki`oj kog kpph`akt`cos iky jrcw ks k rdsuht cf tld `oardksd `o s`ojhd lcusdlchgs. lcusdlch gs. @o Nkpko, fcr dxkiphd, s`ojhd lcusdlchgs spdog edtwddo edt wddo ;.4 t`ids kog 1.4 t`ids icrd co g`j`tkh acotdot sual ks v`gdc, ius`a, kog d-eccbs tlko tlk o lcusdlchgs w`tl icrd tlko cod pdrsco. 5:  Ctldr jrcwtl ikrbdts jdkrdg jdkrd g tc s`ojhdtcos `oahugd schc g`o`oj kog schc trkvdh. @o Qcutl Bcrdk, wldrd s`ojhd lcusdlchgs lcusdlch gs ocw kaacuot fcr icrd tlko 1= pdradot cf cf khh lcusdlchgs lcusdlchgs,, schc g`o`oj tccb cff scid t`id kjc‗tldrd `s dvdo k wcrg fcr pdcphd dkt`oj khcod, k hcod, lco-ekp lco-ekp‗kog ‗kog rdstkurkotss kog ctldr g`o`oj dstkeh`slidots lkvd eddo kt pk`os tc cffdr tk`hcrdg cpt`cos rdstkurkot `oahug`oj sikhhdr tkehds kog icg`f`dg idkh acie`okt`cos tlkt krd icrd acst-dffdat`vd fcr tld s`ojhd g`odr.5 Zdhacid tc tld hcodh`odss dacoc iy , @obstcod, Kpr`h ;