Betfair Betting System How to lay favourites for a living

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Copyright © 2006 by Kristian Jackman All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works from this book in whole or in part. Please be aware that using any information in this book is at your own discretion. The author is in no way liable for any debts that you may incur with your betting. Please note that gambling and the use of information related to gambling is illegal in some countries. The author holds no responsibility for any reader using the information herein while it is against the local laws of the country they reside in. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

Congratulations on purchasing a copy of 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'. What you have in front of you is essentially a 'how to' guide for amassing a fortune through horse racing. The size of that fortune depends entirely upon you. Some of you will read this manual, and think to yourself “Oh that sounds like a great way to make money” but never act upon it. Whether because of fear or pure laziness, I don't know. Others will push their worries aside, take on board the principles it contains and begin to create the wealth they deserve. I sincerely hope you are part of the second group. Of course everyone who reads this book will have different levels of skill and knowledge within the broad area of horse racing gambling. Many of you will find yourself coming back to different parts of the book time and time again in order to fully understand and internalise the principles taught. So whilst this book has the structure of a 'how to' guide, in that it contains step by step instructions, it should be noted that it's meant to be used as a reference. You will no doubt find that you pick up some parts of the book almost straight away whilst other parts require several readings. This is perfectly natural and the key is to go at your own pace. It's no good hitting the exchanges before you have mastered the art of laying as that is a sure fire way to lose money. Of course you will need to apply the principles in this book in real-life examples on the exchanges before you can truly understand and internalise them. This is why I strongly recommend that you begin by paper trading your selections rather than risking money on them straight away. By doing this you will become comfortable with laying without losing any real money. Due to the different experience levels of all the readers I have decided to structure this book into 5 parts. The first is more a guide to gambling in general and will be useful to the complete 'newbies' out there. In this section I will explain all the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the notion of value. In the second part of the book I go on to discuss laying horses in more detail. Also included is a basic user guide of Betfair to help you on your way. In the third part I will show you how to study race cards and form with particular reference to the Racing Post website. The fourth part is the system itself. It will teach you how to spot losing favourites in Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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as little as half an hour a day. In the fifth and final part I offer further tactics to enhance your profits including professional staking and bank management strategies.

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

Part 1: The Basics of Gambling.................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Chapter 2: Understanding Odds and Percentages................................................................................................................................. 7

Chapter 3: The Notion of Value...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Part 2: The Basics of Laying............................................................................................................................................................................. 15

Chapter 4: What is Laying?................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Chapter 5: How to use a Betting Exchange................................................................................................................................................... 18

Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post Website...................................................................................................... 22

Chapter 6: Understanding the Race Card.......................................................................................................................................................... 23

Chapter 7: Understanding the Postdata table............................................................................................................................................... 25

Chapter 8: Studying a Horse's Racing History.......................................................................................................................................... 27

Part 4: How to Pick a Losing Horse.................................................................................................................................................. 29

Chapter 9: Laying Horses – Flat Racing............................................................................................................................................................ 30

Chapter 10: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Flat Racing............................................................................................... 32

Chapter 11: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 36

Chapter 12: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Flat Racing....................................................................................... 37

Chapter 13: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 42

Chapter 14: Example 1.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44

Chapter 15: Example 2.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50

Chapter 16: Laying Horses – National Hunt (Jump) Racing............................................................................................... 56

Chapter 17: Step 1 – Primary Warning Signs – Jump Racing........................................................................................... 57

Chapter 18: Step 2 – Evaluating the Opposition.................................................................................................................................... 62

Chapter 19: Step 3 – Secondary Warning Signs – Jump Racing................................................................................... 63

Chapter 20: Step 4 – Bringing It All Together.......................................................................................................................................... 66

Chapter 21: Example 3.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68

Part 5: Maximising Profits.................................................................................................................................................................................... 75

Chapter 22: Laying at the Right Price.................................................................................................................................................................... 76

Chapter 23: Using a Betting Bank............................................................................................................................................................................... 77

Chapter 24: Final Thoughts.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78

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PART ONE: THE BASICS OF

GAMBLING

This part is essentially for the newbies out there. In this section I will quickly go through the basics of gambling including odds and percentages and the importance of value in betting. Of course even if you have experience with gambling you still may find some useful information here, and I would advise everyone to at least skim read this part.

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CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND

PERCENTAGES

Odds are referred to as the "price" for a horse in a race. The bookmakers set the prices according to what they believe is the horse's chance of winning. The more likely they think a horse is to win, the "shorter" the horse's price will be. That is to say the smaller the return will be for a punter who backs the horse to win. For example if a horse is priced at 4/1 then the bookie is saying that if that exact race was run 5 times that horse would win it once. Or to put it another way the horse has a 20% chance of winning. There are three different ways odds can be presented. Depending on which market the bookmaker targets. Odds are presented by either the British, European or American standard. British - Fractional Odds The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g 5/1 or "Five to One". When the first figure is higher than the second it is called "odds against". The amount won will be greater than the original stake. For example if the odds offered were 5/1 then for every £1 staked you would win £5. When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called "odds on" and the amount of winnings will be smaller than the stake. For example if the odds offered were 4/6 then for every £6 staked you would win £4. Below is an example of an on-line race card using British Odds;

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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European - Decimal Odds Unlike the British fractions the European system deals in decimals. The figure quoted is the return a punter receives (including the stake) based on a bet of 1 unit. To transfer from British odds to European odds simply divide the first number by the second number and add 1. So odds of 5/1 become 6 (5 ÷ 1 + 1 = 6) and odds of 4/6 become 1.67 (4 ÷ 6 + 1 = 1.67) The betting exchanges all use the European odds system so it is something you are going to have to learn to recognise. Below is an example of an on-line race card using European Odds;

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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American Odds The American system is different again and is the most complicated due to odds being either positive or negative. The system is based on “evens” (1/1) being expressed as 100.00. If an event is odds on then the figure is preceded by a minus “-” and represents the amount you have to stake in order to win 100 units. If an event has odds greater than evens then it is a positive figure and represents the amount you win for every 100 units staked. Don't worry if you don't understand this completely. We will not be dealing in American odds in any way. Below is an example of an on-line race card using American Odds;

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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Table of Odds and Percentages.

UK

EUR

USA

%

UK

EUR

USA

%

UK

EUR

USA

%

2/7

1.29

-350

77.80 9/5

2.80

180

35.71 14/1

15.00

1400 6.67

3/10

1.30

-330

76.70 15/8

2.87

187

34.78 16/1

17.00

1600 5.88

1/3

1.33

-300

75.00 19/10 2.90

190

34.48 18/1

19.00

1800 5.26

4/11

1.36

-275

73.33 2/1

3.00

200

33.33 20/1

21.00

2000 4.76

2/5

1.40

-250

71.43 21/10 3.10

210

32.26 22/1

23.00

2200 4.35

4/9

1.44

-225

69.23 11/5

3.20

220

31.25 25/1

26.00

2500 3.85

1/2

1.50

-200

66.67 9/4

3.25

225

30.77 28/1

29.00

2800 3.45

8/15

1.53

-190

65.50 23/10 3.30

230

30.30 33/1

34.00

3300 2.94

4/7

1.57

-150

63.64 12/5

3.40

240

29.41 40/1

41.00

4000 2.44

8/13

1.65

-161

61.90 5/2

3.50

250

28.57 50/1

51.00

5000 1.96

2/3

1.67

-150

60.00 13/5

3.60

260

27.78 66/1

67.00

6600 1.49

8/11

1.73

-137

57.89 27/10 3.70

270

27.03 80/1

81.00

8000 1.23

4/5

1.80

-125

55.56 11/4

3.75

275

26.67 100/1 101.00 1000 0.99

5/6

1.83

-120

54.55 14/5

3.80

280

26.32

9/10

1.90

-111

52.63 3/1

4.00

300

25.00

10/11 1.91

-110

52.38 10/3

4.33

333

23.08

1/1

2.00

100

50.00 7/2

4.50

350

22.22

21/20 2.05

105

48.78 4/1

5.00

400

20.00

11/10 2.10

110

47.62 9/2

5.50

450

18.18

10/9

2.11

111

47.37 5/1

6.00

500

16.67

6/5

2.20

120

45.45 11/2

6.50

550

15.38

5/4

2.25

125

44.44 6/1

7.00

600

14.29

13/10 2.30

130

43.48 13/2

7.50

650

13.33

27/20 2.35

135

42.55 7/1

8.00

700

12.50

11/8

2.37

137

42.11 15/8

8.50

750

11.76

7/5

2.40

140

41.67 8/1

9.00

800

11.11

3/2

2.50

150

40.00 17/2

9.50

850

10.53

8/5

2.60

160

38.46 9/1

10.00 900

10.00

13/8

2.62

162

38.10 10/1

11.00 1000

9.09

17/10 2.70

170

37.04 11/1

12.00 1100

8.33

7/4

175

36.36 12/1

13.00 1200

7.69

2.75

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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CHAPTER 3: THE NOTION OF VALUE

The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of gambling by almost everyone bar the professionals. It is the very reason that bookmakers are able to profit on every horse in every race. Let me explain. If a horse's real chance of winning is 9/1 then it means that if that horse was allowed to run that exact same race ten times it would win once. The other nine times it would lose. If you put £1 on the horse for each of those ten races you would invest £10 in total. For the one race that the horse won you would receive £10 back from the bookmakers (including £9 profit and the £1 stake returned). So as you can see in the long run you would break even. Now imagine that same horse, with it's 9/1 chance of winning, was priced at 15/1 by a bookmaker. Now for those ten races your investment would still be £10. But your return on that one winning race would now be £16 (including £15 profit and the £1 stake returned). This means you will have made £6 pure profit or more impressively a 60% return on investment. Of course the example above is very simplistic but the model work. Having value in your profits is the only way to reap long term profits. Now imagine how many times a bookmaker will make a mistake on one of its prices. Think of the resources available to Ladbrokes for example. They have teams of experts studying the form of every horse in every race, not to mention the computer programs that can crunch years of data in seconds. And all pitted against you – the punter. Now do you see how hard it is to beat the bookmaker? This is exactly the reason why so few people can earn a living from gambling. Furthermore the majority of people like to bet on favourites because they believe this will give them a better strike rate hence better profits. But guess what? The favourites offer the worst value out of every horse in the field. Let me explain. When pricing up horses the bookmakers included an over round on every horse so that each one represents value for them. To put it another way the bookmaker wants to be certain that of making a profit in every race. It's up to the punter to find a horse that the bookie has priced up wrongly and which offers value. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Very tough to do. Bookmakers work in percentages. Now if the percentage of all the runners in any given race put together is below 100% then theoretically we can back every horse in that race and be guaranteed a profit. Of course this never happens. Below is a screen print of a recent race at Leicester;

As you can see the total starting price is 115%. Which means if we backed every horse in the race the bookmaker is guaranteed a 15% profit. That said some horses in that race will have been value bets. If we look at the odds we can see that the race involved a short priced favourite. Now this favourite didn't even get a place so we can assume it wasn't a good favourite at all. The reason it was a short price was because clueless punters put money on it driving its price down. This is the key point - its when the punters start putting money on horses that the value a horse offers changes the most. As I said before most people will back the favourite. The more money that gets put on a certain horse the lower its odds will go. Simple supply and demand. As the price gets shorter more and more people put money on it because it is such a 'sure thing', and the price just gets lower and lower. It's a vicious circle that creates less value for the punters and more profits for the bookmakers. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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However since the advent of the betting exchanges people have been able to copy the bookmakers and begin making bets with value already built in. In fact on the exchanges you have advantages over the bookmaker. You do not have to lay every horse in every race of the day. You get to hand pick the horses you lay which means you effectively just pick the cream of the bookmakers business to focus on. The bookies have done the hard work for you. You will use my system to pick the favourites with the least chance of winning. Then you simply watch the clueless punters drive the prices down which in turn gives you more and more value in your bets. With this strategy you are guaranteed value in all your bets and as such are guaranteed long term profits. In the next section I will discuss the process of laying in more detail.

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PART TWO: THE BASICS OF

LAYING

In this section I will explain the concept of laying in more detail. To lay horses you need to use a betting exchange and so I have included a short guide to Betfair, which is the exchange you will most likely be using.

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CHAPTER 4: WHAT IS LAYING?

Laying horses is not as complicated as you might think. It certainly isn't as complicated as many people will let you believe. Laying a horse is like taking on the role of the bookie. It is simply betting that a horse won't win. So if you lay a horse and it loses the race your bets wins. If you lay a horse and it wins the race your bet loses. Lets run through a quick example so you understand this fully. We lay a horse called My Sally at odds of 3.00 (2/1 in English odds) for £10 If My Sally wins we have to pay out £20 If My Sally loses we win £10 As you can see the lower the odds the less we have to pay out. This is why my system focuses on laying short priced favourites. It offers us much less of a risk and higher value. To lay a horse you have to use betting exchange. Unlike traditional betting where there is a bookmaker who sets the odds and punters who either take the offered odds or walk away, a betting exchange is simply a website where visitors can bet against other visitors on a range of events. All bets on the exchange have been placed there by users who either want to place a bet in the normal way (back), or offer odds to other punters (lay). Bets are matched between people with opposing views. Just as ebay matches up buyers and sellers via the internet, betting exchanges' matches up customers who want to strike a wager. You never know who you are betting against, your privacy and the confidentiality of your bets is maintained by a secure site. To become a member you simply have to register a debit or credit card and place some funds into your account. Once you have done this you can start to use the account straight away. There are a number of betting exchanges available on the internet. Below I have listed a number of exchanges and their URL's. Betfair is by far the biggest betting exchange in the marketplace. It is the one I Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.

FREE £20 – If you would like £20 for free, simply sign up to Betfair using the following link and type in this code – L6UKEEJEE – in the 'Refer and Earn' box. Your account will then be credited with £20. http://www.betfair.com

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved 17

CHAPTER 5: HOW TO USE A BETTING

EXCHANGE

The follow instructions are designed to help you place lay bets using a betting exchange. The user guide uses Betfair as an example as it is the exchange you are most likely to use. If you haven't registered you will need to click on the 'Join Now' button and fill in your details. If you have simply fill in your username and password and click 'Login'.

The left hand side of the front page will look like this, and is a list of all the different sports covered. Click on 'Horse Racing – Todays Card' for a list of all the races coming up on that day. Of course if you are laying the night before the race you will click on 'Horse Racing'

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The list of sporting options will change to show a list of horse races for the day, happening all over the world, sorted by time Simply scroll down and from the list of races click on the race you are laying in. Select the race by Time and Course. Do not select the race meeting to place as we are only betting on the horse not to win.

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The race meeting will come up on the screen and will look confusing at first but it is quite straight forward.

To the left we have the name of the horse in bold and the jockey's name underneath. The first three columns of numbers after the horses' names show the odds for backing the horse to win, with the best odds in the blue squares. The decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with. Basically this means someone else has laid the horse at this price with the amount of money shown below. They are waiting for someone to accept their offer. Ignore these as we are not backing the horses. The second set of three columns show the odds for the horses losing (i.e. lay bets). Again the best odds are highlighted in the pink squares. As before the decimal figures are the odds and the figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with. Basically this means someone else is requesting an opportunity to bet a certain amount at their preferred odds and is waiting for an offer to lay at that price. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Click on the best odds (in the pink square) for the horse you have selected to lay. The right hand side of the website will now change, showing the horse's name, the odds selected and asking for the backers stake as follows:

You can change the odds to whatever price you are comfortable offering Type in the amount you want to lay the horse for in the 'Backer's Stake' box and Betfair will automatically work out your liability (i.e. The amount you stand to lose if the horse wins). For advice on what odds to set and the amount to stake please see the chapters 'Laying at the Right Price' and 'Using a Betting Bank' later in this manual. Once you have done that click on submit in the bottom right hand corner of the page. You will then be asked to confirm your bet. Click on yes if you are happy with it. The screen will now change to show whether or not your bet has been matched. If the bet has been matched, then the bet is placed and you only have to wait for the results. If the bet is unmatched you have several options: You may wait to see if someone else comes along who is prepared to accepts the odds you have specified. You can change the odds in order to match a backer who is offering different odds. Or you can cancel the bet. It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. This is where some of your stake has been matched with a backer, but some has not. Using Betfair is relatively easy once you get used to it. If you are still unsure of anything then Betfair offers comprehensive online help. For an easy to follow user guide simply go to the Betfair website, click on the help menu and then on the view our demo button. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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PART THREE:

UNDERSTANDING THE RACING

POST WEBSITE

In this section I will detail how to navigate around the Racing Post's website. All the information below is also available in the Daily racing Post newspaper. I prefer to use the website but of course it is up to you what you use. If you are picking your selections the night before then you will need to use the website. The website can be visited by clicking on the link → http://www.racingpost.co.uk Although other papers include race cards in their horse racing sections we will not be using them. They do not contain enough information for us to confidently pick a losing horse.

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CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS

Once you enter the main site you will need to register to get access to the useful information. This is an easy process and should only take a minute or two. To see the race cards simply click on the relevant date in the top left hand corner of the screen. Then on the right hand side towards the bottom of the screen you can pick the meeting you want to browse through. Once you have done that and clicked on a specific race you will be presented with a screen similar to the one below.

1. 13.

2. 3. 7. 4. 8. 5. 9.

6.

10. 11. 12.

1. This box contains details about the race itself. In the centre of the box is the title of the race, followed by the group class and the age limit of the horses eligible to run. Underneath the title are the details of the prize money available for the race. On the left hand side of this box are the time of the race and the Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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number of runners in the race. On the right hand side of the box you will find the race distance and the going. 2. The number of the horse on the race card (also shown on the horse's saddlecloth) followed by the number of the draw (the stall from which it has been drawn to run). 3. The form of the horse (it's most recent last run). A dash indicates the start of the current season, bold type indicates a result on a different surface to today's race, ex indicates an additional weight penalty to be carried, d indicates disqualified. 4. The horse's name and country of birth if not British. 5. The number of days since the horse's last run. 6. Additional information on the horse. D = distance winner, C = course winner, CD = both course and distance winner, BF = beaten favourite. 7. Age of the horse (horse's birthdays are officially deemed to occur on the 1st of January in the year of their birth). 8. The official weight the horse must carry (stones and pounds) in this particular race. t = tongue tie, v = visored, b = blinkered, e/s = eye shields, 1 = 1st time wearing headgear. 9. The jockey's name with any weight allowances due to age or inexperience expressed in pounds (to be deducted from the official weight). 10.The Racing Post's own rating of the horse. 11.The actual weight the horse will usually be expected to carry according to it's official handicap rating (not including any allowances for the jockey or penalties etc). 12.Forecast of the likely Starting Price odds for each horse. 13.The Racing Post's analysis of the likely outcome.

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CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THE

POSTDATA TABLE

Underneath the card there is the Postdata table. This is a very useful tool for quickly checking the ability of a horse.

1.

7.

2.

8.

3.

9.

4.

10.

5.

11.

6.

12.

1. The Racing Post's own rating for each horse. 2. Topspeed – The Racing Post's own assessment of each individual horse's race speed. 3. Official rating – The official handicapper's rating of each individual horse's race speed. 4. The name of the horse. 5. The Racing Post's own analysis of the trainer's current form. One tick = in form Two ticks = in very good form ? = form open to question X =out of form - = no runners last 14 days 6. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability on the relevant going. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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One tick = proven form on forecast going or on easy/fast ground if going is soft/firm Two ticks = proven form on forecast going of soft/heavy or firm/hard ? = unproven on forecast going - = debut 7. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability to cope with the race distance. One tick = proven form around this distance ? = unproven around this distance - = debut 8. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability over the race course. One tick = proven form on this course Two ticks = two or more course wins ? = unproven on this course - = debut 9. The Racing Posts own analysis of the effects of the draw. One tick = good draw Two ticks = very good draw X = bad draw - = draw neither good nor bad 10. The Racing Post's own analysis of the horse's ability. One tick = some form within last year Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top Three ticks = PM and TS both within 7lb of PM top ? = last run more than a year ago AND no PM rating X = no adequate form - = debut 11. The Racing Post's own assessment of the horse's most recent form. One tick = Some for within the last 60 days Two ticks = PM or TS rating within 7lb of PM top achieved within last 60 days

? = last run more than 60 days ago

- = debut 12. The horse which scores highest on the Postdata table

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CHAPTER 8: STUDYING A HORSE'S RACING

HISTORY

To bring up a detailed history of a horse's races simply click on the horse's name in either the race card or the Postdata table. A new window detailed below with open up. 1.

2. 3.

4.

5.

1. The name of the horse. 2. Details of the horse's family tree. 3. The lifetime record for the horse's races. 4. The Racing Post's analysis of the horse's chances in the race. 5. This box details every race the horse has competed in. It gives us useful information about the horses abilities at different surfaces and distances. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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To bring up the detailed results of an individual race simply click on the relevant line in the race outcome column. A new window detailed below will open up.

This page is useful for the analysis that the Racing Post provides. It may provide information which will ultimately decide whether we lay the horse or not.

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PART FOUR: HOW TO PICK A

LOSING HORSE

To put it simply we are looking for 'false favourites'. That is a horse that the betting public is putting money behind but which we think will not win. We will do this by looking at important data that the majority of people don't bother with. There are literally a hundred factors that affect the outcome of a horse race. Some people spend hours and hours studying as many of these as possible and still don't get anywhere. The majority of the punters, I call sheep, base everything on form. Anything from 80-90% of a price is going to be based on recent form. This is no coincidence. The bookmakers know that most of the money bet by punters is based on form in some way. Further to this media pundits and newspapers tipsters are obsessed with form. You'll often see a so called expert on TV going on about a horse that has great form. Punters see and read this and it sways their betting opinion. All this means is that if a horse is running well it will be massively overbet by the public and there is value to be had in laying it. A horses' “form” is simply a record of a horses' recent performances. Basically has the horse been running well lately? Whilst it is obviously an important factor in the race outcome, it is certainly not the be all and end all. For example a horse that won last time out will always be overbet. Now I'm not saying that form doesn't count and I'm certainly not suggesting you lay every horse than won last time out. Another reason some horse's are 'false favourites' are because of their stable connections. This will usually be the case in races where the horses are inexperienced. So the lazy punter will simply put his money on the horse with the most high profile jockey or trainer. We, however, have to delve a little deeper and study the main factors beyond form that affect the result of a race. There are two types of horse racing in the U.K. - Flat Racing and National Hunt (Jump) Racing. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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CHAPTER 9: LAYING HORSES – FLAT

RACING

These races are run over distances ranging from 5 furlongs (5/8 mile or 1000m) to 20

furlongs (2 ½ miles or 4000m) and are started from stalls. As the name suggests

there are no obstacles in flat racing. The flat season runs from mid-March to mid-

November although flat races do still take place in the winter. Flat horses mature

quickly and start running as 2 or 3-year-olds.

Flat races are either run on turf or All Weather (AW) tracks. The AW tracks are

comprised of sand and are a completely different kettle of fish to the turf tracks.

There are two types of races on the flat – Stakes and Handicaps.

In stakes all the horses carry the same weight. However in handicaps the horses all

carry different weights. The weight a horse carries is based on their ability which is

assessed by the official handicapper. The highest rated horse carries the most weight

and the one at the bottom carries the least. Theoretically every horses has the same

chance of winning.

The favourites only win about 28% of handicap races. This gives us plenty of scope

for laying. Even more impressive are the stats for odds-on favourites in handicap

races.

Statistics show that if you had 'layed' every odds-on favourite in handicaps for the last

10 years you would have made a 20% return on your investment. This is a staggering

statistic and is down to the public overbetting on the favourite and guaranteeing you

value.

There are also different types of races depending on the quality of the field. We will

be looking to lay horses in all these races.

Maidens – These are for horses that have never won a race before.

Conditions Races – Once a horse has won a maiden it can compete in conditions

races. These are for winners of a race or winners of races of a certain value.

Listed Races – Once a horse has won a conditions race it can be entered into a listed

race.

Group Races – These are the most prestigious races for a horse on the flat. There are

three groups 1, 2 and 3. Group 1 races are the most prestigious and carry the most

prize money.

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Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. WE DO NOT LAY ANY HORSES IN THESE RACES. This is because the horses involved are mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the favourite.

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CHAPTER 10: STEP 1 – PRIMARY WARNING

SIGNS – FLAT RACING

Now I am going to take you through the essential details to look at when deciding which horse to lay. The five factors below are the primary variables you will need to assess the favourite on. We need our horse to have a question mark concerning it's ability on at least one of these factors. PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS GOING The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm. The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going. This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor. BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. DISTANCE Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. Some horses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races. As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance. You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is stepping up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant. Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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might have a horse with excellent form over 1 mile but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 12 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 1.5 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay. CLASS As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before. What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens. As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available. The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:

FLAT CLASS SYSTEM Cls 1 Group 1.......................... Group 2.......................... Group 3.......................... Listed incl 96-110 Cls 2 hcps.. Heritage open hcps........ nurseries......................... 86-110............................

3yo+ £200k £90k £50k £28k £45k £18k

2yo £165k £70k £40k £23.5k £20k £13k

Cls 3 Cls 4 Cls 5 Cls 6 Cls 7

76-95..... 66-85..... 56-75..... 46-65..... 0-50.......

3yo+ £12.5k £8.5k £5k £3.5k incl regional bands A-D

2yo £11k £7k £5k £3.5k £2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst. We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time.

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FIRST TIME RUNNER If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying. Usually the horse will be a 2 year old and will be running in a maiden. 2 year olds are very inexperienced animals and it is impossible to gauge how well they will react to their first outing on the race course. Some horses take to races like a duck to water whereas others need several races to get used to it all. The horse will be a short favourite due to its stable connections. Either it will have a popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Just because it has a tall reputation this does not mean it will run well. SURFACE As explain previously the conditions of the ground have a huge impact on a horse's running ability. Hence a change of surface for a horse is also a big factor. If a horse is running on sand or turf for the first time then we will look to oppose it if other factors are also in our favour. You will often find a consistent performer on the turf being a favourite on its AW debut but failing to live up to its reputation. It will often take time for a horse to familiarise itself with a new surface. Over the past 10 years laying horses on AW tracks has been more profitable than on the turf. One main reason for this is because punters try to apply turf form and ratings to the all weather. They will overbet a favourite if it has done exceptionally well on the turf. BONUS TIP – Laying favourites on the AW is most profitable during the winter. This is because the flat season has finished and a lot of the form horses move on to the AW with good reputations and short prices, only to get beaten because they are not used to the surface. WEIGHT The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. More often than not in stakes races every horse will be carrying the same weight and any slight differences are negligible. However it is in handicaps that weight becomes of the utmost importance. We need Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out. BONUS TIP – We do not lay favourites with 7+lbs penalty on the AW tracks as they statistically tend to run well. TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a favourite rather than being a factor in our favour. This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should not lay. Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest to the stable. When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions. Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance. I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.

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CHAPTER 11: STEP 2 – EVALUATING THE

OPPOSITION

After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite. To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite. Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form. We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by. One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite. The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events. Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite. The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.

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CHAPTER 12: STEP 3 – SECONDARY

WARNING SIGNS – FLAT RACING

This is the final part of the system. Once you have completed the first two processes you may have more than one qualifier. I use the following factors to build up a bigger picture of each race which helps me decide which favourite to lay. SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration. DAYS SINCE LAST RUN This used to be a crucial factor within horse racing but new and improved training methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 4 days of it's last run. If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practice'. However it is important to study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise caution. If a horse runs within 4 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure. BONUS TIP - The exception to this rule is races on the AW tracks. Statistics show that favourites returning within 7 days on AW tracks have a good winning strike rate. DRAW The draw is simply the starting stall position of a horse. The lower the number the closer it is to the inside rail. On some tracks this can be quite an important factor. Below I have included a course-by-course list that sums up the generally regarded opinion of the draw factor at all thirty-four flat courses in Britain. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Ascot Ayr Bath

Beverley Brighton Carlisle Catterick

Chepstow Chester

Doncaster

Epsom Downs

Folkestone Goodwood Hamilton Haydock Park Kempton Park

No significant advantage, although low numbers are favoured on the straight course in soft going. Low numbers favoured in big fields on the straight course, especially when the going is soft. Apparently little effect though the five-furlong course here is on a gradual left-hand bend which might be thought to favour low numbers. High numbers up to 8f-noticeably favoured in 5f races. It seems low favoured on soft ground. Low numbers favoured in sprint races but high numbers when the going is soft. High numbers seem to have an advantage in races up to one mile. Over five furlongs low numbers appear to be favoured except when the ground is soft when high numbers seem to have an advantage. 0ver six and seven furlongs low numbers are favoured. No marked advantage either side. Low draw numbers appear to be favoured in sprints, but the crucial factor here is a quick break irrespective of the draw. High numbers seem to be the best on the straight course, whereas low numbers used to have a noticeable advantage in big fields when the going is soft, but the effect is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. High numbers are strongly favoured over five furlongs, a bit less so over six furlongs. Low numbers seem best from 7f to 10f. Quite a significant advantage for high numbers in sprint races Little effect although perhaps low numbers are best in sprints, though a fast start is equally important. Middle to high numbers best in sprints, especially on soft ground. High numbers favoured in sprints, especially when the going is soft. On the sprint course a high number is advantageous when stalls are on the far side (especially in softer

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Leicester Lingfield Park

Musselburgh Newbury Newcastle

Newmarket Nottingham Pontefract Redcar Ripon Salisbury Sandown Park

Southwell Thirsk

Warwick

Wexford Windsor

ground), a low number when the stalls are on the stands side. High numbers usually best on round course. Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight course. Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints on the allweather course: on the turf course high numbers appear to be favoured. High numbers favoured in races up to 8f. No significant advantage, but perhaps high numbers best in large fields, especially in very soft ground. On the straight course horses drawn towards either rail seem to have an advantage when the going is normal, but low numbers are especially favoured on the straight course in soft/heavy ground. Little significant advantage over any distance on either the Rowley Mile or the July Course. High numbers favoured in sprint races when stalls on stands side, low numbers when stalls on far side. Low numbers favoured in sprint races. Middle to high numbers favoured on the straight course. Low numbers appear favoured on the straight course except when the going is soft/heavy. Low numbers tend to be favoured in sprint races on soft going. On the five-furlong course high numbers have an advantage when the ground is soft and when the stalls are placed on the far side; low numbers are favoured when the stalls are on the stands side. No advantage in straight five furlongs: low draw favoured over six and seven furlongs. Significant advantage for high numbers on the straight course, more pronounced when the ground is fast. Low numbers best at 7f & 1m. Low numbers favoured in shorter races except when the going is soft, in which case the stands side tends to run faster. High numbers best. High numbers favoured in sprints.

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Wolverhampton Yarmouth York

Low numbers slightly favoured in sprints. High numbers slightly favoured on the straight course, especially in large fields. Little effect either way. Perhaps low to middle numbers best on the straight track, especially when soft going prevails.

FIELD SIZE This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the better. The more runners there are the more chance the favourite will be held up by another horse. This factor is more important in maidens than other races. Often you will see inexperienced horses getting in each other's way in these races. IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER? If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay. Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than it deserves. JOCKEY Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the race. To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be another factor in our favour. TOPSPEED On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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SEX OF THE HORSE This has no bearing on the regular turf tracks but it can be important on the AW tracks. A relatively unknown fact is that female horses perform badly on the sand. If a short priced favourite is a filly or a mare, and other factors are conducive, it is ripe for laying. FORM Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is form. Generally the favourite will be in form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing position but how far it won or lost by. Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper. We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class this as out of form. This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous two runs and still be classed as out of form. Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this excellent form. I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to the favourite.

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CHAPTER 13: STEP 4 – BRINGING IT ALL

TOGETHER

Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay. I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way. I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have. Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box. However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture. For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors. This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.

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Flat Racing

PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS

Horse 1

Horse 2

Horse 3

Horse 4

GOING DISTANCE CLASS 1ST TIME RUNNER SURFACE WEIGHT TRAINER OPPOSITION HOW MANY RIVALS SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS DAYS SINCE LAST RUN DRAW FIELD SIZE LTO WINNER? JOCKEY TOPSPEED SEX OF THE HORSE FORM TOTAL

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CHAPTER 14: EXAMPLE 1 EXAMPLE 1 – 2YO STAKES – MUSSELBURGH

The above card comes from a class 4 2YO stakes at Musselburgh over 5f on goodfirm ground. The betting forecast shows the favourite is Stir Crazy with a tissue price of 11/4. Primary Warning Signs Looking at the Postdata table there are no immediate warning signs. The horse has a tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at it's racing history.

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We can immediately see that Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has before. It is carrying 8lbs more and in fact is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race. As this horse is inexperienced I feel this increase in weight is significant enough to count against the horse. Furthermore looking back at the horse's history it's only win came when it was carrying significantly less weight than in today's race. We can also see that the horse is stepping up in class from it's previous race. Stir Crazy has done relatively well in class 5 events but when raced in a class 3 it was well beaten. Today's race is a class 4 event and I feel this is enough of a step up to count as a warning sign in our favour. Finally looking at the trainer's course-win percentage below we can see that the favourite's trainer, M R Channon has a win percentage of 14%. This is not enough to scare us from laying this horse.

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So we have two primary warning signs in our favour – weight and class – and this is enough for us to proceed. Opposition Now we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we can find one with similar ability to our favourite.

The Mighty Ogmore looks to be a very serious challenger to our favourite. It is carrying more weight than it ever has before which is the only primary warning sign against it (although it is sill 5lbs lighter than the favourite). The favourite has only performed well in class 5 events but this horse has won a class 4 event in its previous race and seems to be getting better and better with every run. This horse certainly matches the favourite in terms of ability.

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Emma Told Lies is another horse with only 1 primary warning sign against it. Like the favourite it is moving up in class. This horse has had similar race results to that of our favourite. In fact Emma Told Lies has won two class 5 events previously giving it more wins than the favourite. This is certainly another horse with the potential to win the race.

Granny Peel is also stepping up in class and has question marks over her weight which puts her on a par with the favourite. This horse has also won a class 5 event before and overall has a better racing history than Stri Crazy. Granny peel has been placed in every one of it's races and has won 4 times before. This horse certainly has as much chance of winning the race as the favourite. Secondary Warning Signs Finally we need to see what secondary warning signs are in our favour to see if we can strengthen our position on laying this horse. Looking at the days since last run figure we can see that Stir Crazy last ran 1 day ago. This is certainly in our favour as the horse is unlikely to have fully recovered from this race and this will effect it's performance. According to the Racing Post the draw favours no horse. But looking at my table above which goes into more detail we can see that high numbers are a slight Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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advantage up to 8f at Musselburgh. Stir Crazy is in stall 2 and will have no such advantage. Conclusion There are two primary warning signs in our favour: ● ●

Stir Crazy is carrying more weight than it ever has before which will hamoer its progress. Stir Crazy is stepping up in class and will be racing better horses than

previously.

We have identified 3 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to beat the favourite. Finally there are two secondary warning signs in our favour: ● ●

Stir Crazy last run was only 1 day ago and so the horse will be tired. Other horses in the race have the benefit of a better draw.

Stir Crazy is a definite lay for me.

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THE RESULT

In the end the outsider won the race . It wasn't a horse I identified as a threat because it did not seem to have the ability to win the race, but it has proved me wrong. This shows the great thing about laying. Often an outsider that you don't even consider can come from nowhere and beat the favourite.

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CHAPTER 15: EXAMPLE 2 EXAMPLE 2 - HANDICAP - WINDSOR

The above card comes from a class 5 handicap at Brighton over 6m209y on firm ground. For some reason the Racing Post has not published the tissue prices for the horses. When this happens simply check on Betfair to see what the favourite is. In this race the favourite was High Class Problem. Primary Warning Signs Looking at the postdata table we can immediately see that the favourite has a question mark over the going. Looking at the horse's race history below we can see that High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before.

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This represents the only real primary warning sign for the favourite although we can see that this isn't really a horse of great ability as it's previous best run was a 4th place. It's seems this horse is not really any great shakes in class 5 events. Furthermore the horse will be carrying 3lb more than it ever has before. Whilst this is not enough to count as a warning sign it certainly puts more doubt in the ability of the horse to win the race. Finally looking at the trainer's course-win percentage below we can see that the favourite's trainer, P F I Cole has a win percentage of 9%. This is not enough to scare us from laying this horse.

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Opposition Next we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we can find one with similar ability to our favourite.

Elusive Warrior has no primary warning signs against it's name and seems to be more than a match for the favourite as it has won a class 5 event on it's previous run. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Danish Blues is another horse no primary warning signs against it's name and has the potential to beat the favourite here. Whilst this horse has not won a race before it has had similar results to the favourite and must be considered.

Cindertrack is carrying the heaviest penalty in the race and weight might be a problem. But it is another horse yet to win a race but with results comparable to the favourite and has the potential to win this one. Secondary Warning Signs According to the Racing Post the draw has no effect but looking at my more detailed table on page 37 we can see that in sprints low numbers are favoured. Our horse is running from stall 7 and will receive no advantage. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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The jockey has never ridden this horse before and that counts in our favour as the jockey will have no feel for the horse in a racing situation. Conclusion There is one primary warning sign in our favour: ●

High Class Problem has never raced on firm ground before. This is the hardest surface there is and it may not be to the horse's liking.

We have identified 3 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to beat the favourite. Finally there are two secondary warning signs in our favour: ● ●

Other horses in the race have the benefit of a better draw. The jockey has not ridden this horse before.

High Class Problem is another good choice for a lay.

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THE RESULT

Another successful lay as our favourite came second. The winner Cindertrack was one of the horses I identified as a major threat and so it proved with a comfortable victory.

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CHAPTER 16: LAYING HORSES – NATIONAL

HUNT (JUMP) RACING

In National Hunt racing the horses are made to jump a number of obstacles

throughout the course. The courses are at least 2 miles (16 furlongs) long and the

horses are started from a tape barrier. Jump horses mature more slowly and don't run

until they are 4 or 5-year-olds. Jump racing goes on all year round but its main

season runs from November until the end of April.

There are 2 main types of jump race, each with different sized barriers.

Steeplechases (Chases) - In these races the horses are made to jump 'fences' which

vary in size. These are the biggest obstacles a horse will have to face. The Grand

National is the most prestigious steeplechase event in the U.K.

Hurdles - In these races the horses are made to jump over obstacles measuring about

3 feet 1 inch in height.

Another type of jump race is Point to Point Races - These races are run over fences

on designated farmland throughout the country in the Spring and Autumn. This is

basically the nursery for young jump horses who will progress to jump over hurdles

and fences. We will not be looking at laying horses in point to point races.

In jump racing there are also handicaps and non-handicap races.

Like on the flat there are different types of races depending on the quality of the field.

Maidens – As with the flat maidens are run by horses who have never won before.

Novices – These are for horses who have not won a race prior to that season. When a

horse wins a novice race it can still compete in novices for the rest of that season but

it has to carry a weight penalty.

Bumpers – Also called National Hunt Flat Races. These are special flat races for

young jump horses.

Other types of races include; Auction races, Claiming races, and Selling races. WE

DO NOT LAY ANY HORSES IN THESE RACES. This is because the horses

involved are always mediocre at best and it is very hard to be sure of laying the

favourite.

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CHAPTER 17: STEP 1 – PRIMARY WARNING

SIGNS – JUMP RACING

Many of the variables for jump racing are similar to that of flat racing but I will take you through them one by one as there are subtle differences. PRIMARY VARIABLES GOING The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm. The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference. What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in novice races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going. This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor. BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be. BONUS TIP 2 – Watch out for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time on soft ground. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and the sticky soft ground will test the horse's stamina. DISTANCE Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. In jump racing you don't get sprints but the races still vary in distance. Some horses are better at the medium length races of 2 miles while others prefer longer distances (3 miles+) that are a real test of stamina. You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Either a horse that is stepping Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the medium distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you might have a horse with excellent form over 2 miles but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 20 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 20 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity. BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 4 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay. BONUS TIP 2 – Distance is a particular warning for a flat horse specialist jumping for the first time. Endurance will be an issue for the horse as it has not had to jump before and jump races are usually longer than flat races so the horses' stamina will be severely tested. CLASS As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before. What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens. As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available. The table below summarises the different classes for jump races:

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JUMP CLASS SYSTEM Cls 1 Grade 1 Grade 2 incl limited hcps Grade 3 open hcps Listed Cls 2 Open hcps 0-140+ Cls 3 0-115/135 Cls 4 0-100/115 Cls 5 0-85/95 Cls 6 HuntCh & NHF

Chase £100k £50k £50k £25k £23k £20k £10k £5.5-10k £3.5-5.5k £1.6 – 3.5k

NovChs Hurdle £50k £75k £32k £40k £45k £20k £22k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k

NovHur NHFlat £40k £25k £28k £20k £18k

£15k £18k £14k £8k £4.5-8k £3.2-4.5k £2.5-3.2k

The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 6 the worst. We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time or horses which have had bad results in a certain class. FIRST TIME HURDLER If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying. Horses who are jumping for the first time can be two different types of horse. Either they have been bred as a national hunt horse or they are a flat-bred horse jumping for the first time. Once again it is impossible to tell how a horse will react to it's first hurdle race. Even if the horse has been racing on the flat before it will have experienced nothing like a hurdles race before. Again if a horse is a short favourite it could simply be due to its stable connections. Or it may have been a horse with good results on the flat and so automatically gets favouritism. BONUS TIP – First time hurdlers will be competing in novice hurdle events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to hurdling. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles.

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FIRST TIME CHASER If a horse is a short favourite on its first chase then again that is a great opportunity for laying. Any horse that chases will have been a hurdler at some point. But the fences in a steeplechase are a lot bigger than hurdles and even if a horse is a great hurdler it may not make a great chaser. If we see a short favourite who has never chased before have ourselves a laying opportunity. BONUS TIP – First time chasers will be competing in novice chase events. These are great events for picking up valuable lays as the public really have no idea how a horse will take to chasing. Furthermore these races are full of inexperienced horses who often bring each other down over the obstacles. WEIGHT The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. Over jumps this factor is important in non-handicaps as well. Once a horse wins a novice event it is allowed to compete in other novice races for the rest of the season. However it must carry a weight penalty. This gives up lots of laying opportunities. Often a horse who has one a novice event will be favourite for the next race due to it's form. However many punters do not take into account the extra weight it is carrying and blindly back it. Often you will see these favourites losing their next race. As with flat racing, weight is very important in handicaps. We need to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse. Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out. TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a favourite rather than being a factor in our favour.

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This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should not lay. Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest to the stable. When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions. Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance. I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.

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CHAPTER 18: STEP 2 – EVALUATING THE

OPPOSITION

After carrying out the first process of the system you will have a list of potential favourites to lay. The next step is to evaluate the opposition in that race. What you are looking for is at least one other horse which looks to have the ability to beat the favourite. To do this we quickly scan the racing history for each horse in the race searching for at least one horse with similar ability to that of the favourite. Of course we don't want to spend too long doing this as we don't want to fall into the trap of spending hours reading form. We simply want to find horses with similar race results to that of the favourite. Similar results includes the actual finishing position of the horse in its past races as well as how many lengths it won or lost by. One rule I stick to is that for these rival horses to qualify as a potential race winner they cannot have more primary warning signs against their names than the favourite. The best way to judge a horse's ability is to see how it has performed in a certain class. For example if the favourite in a race has previously won races in class 5 events, ideally we want to find other horses in that race that have also won class 5 events. Or if a favourite has been placed before then we would need to find other horses in the race who had been placed in similar events to the favourite. The best way to understand this aspect of the system is to look through the practical examples I will take you through in a moment.

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CHAPTER 19: STEP 3 – SECONDARY

WARNING SIGNS – JUMP RACING

Once we have found our favourites with at least one question mark over their ability we need to choose which one we are going to lay. We do this by considering a second level of factors. SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS These factors are not as important to the outcome of a race as the primary factors but they still play a part and so need to be taken into consideration. DAYS SINCE LAST RUN This used to be an important factor within horse racing but new and improved training methods have lessened its importance. We need to be on the lookout for a horse that has not run for 60 days or is running again within 7 days of it's last run. If a horse has not run within 60 days then it has no discernible form and it's the same principle as a football player lacking 'match practise'. However it is important to study the horse's previous race history. Some horses are notoriously good at coming back from a long lay off so if a horse has a history of this we need to exercise caution. If a horse runs within 7 days of it's last run it here is a chance it might not have recovered fully from its previous efforts and may lack stamina. But again some horses can run well several days in a row so check it's past race history to be sure. FIELD SIZE This is simply the number of horses in a race. The higher the size of the field the better. This has more significance over jumps than it has on the flat. With National Hunt racing the more horses there are jostling for position over the jumps the more chance there is of horses bringing each other down. Like on the flat this factor is more important in races where there are inexperienced horses racing together such as novice hurdles and novice chases.

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IS THE FAVOURITE A LAST TIME OUT WINNER? If the favourite won it's last race then this will guarantee us more value in our lay. Most of the public overbet a LTO winner and this gives the favourite lower odds than it deserves. JOCKEY Some horses run better when they have a certain jockey riding them. This doesn't necessarily mean that an experienced jockey will be best. Each jockey has a different technique of racing. Some like to push their horse hard while others prefer to be gentler. Obviously some horses run better depending how they are treated during the race. To quickly see if a horse and jockey are a good partnership glance at the racing history of the horse to see if the jockey has been placed on that horse before. If it hasn't then it is quite possible they do not work well together and this could be another factor in our favour. This is another factor that is more important in National Hunt racing due to the nature of jumping over obstacles. The jockey and the horse have to be in tune or there is a high risk the horse will fall or refuse to jump. TOPSPEED On the postdata table The Racing Post make an assessment of each individual horse's race speed. If the favourite has a top speed rating lower than 75% of the highest rating this is another factor in our favour and suggests the horse may struggle. AGE OF THE HORSE Horses tend to jump better the older they get. The younger horses have more eratic results and have a greater chance of falling. Horses 5 years old and young get a black mark here. FORM Counter-intuitively the final thing I check is form. Generally the favourite will be in form but it's important to check anyway. We are not concerned with finishing Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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position but how far it won or lost by. Most punters simply look at the finishing position but we will look a little deeper. We want to check whether the horse finished within ½ length per furlong of the winner in its last 2 runs. If it did then I class this as good form if it didn't then I class this as out of form. This means it is quite possible for the favourite to have finished 2nd on it's previous two runs and still be classed as out of form. Of course if a favourite has won it's last two runs then that is considered very good form. If it won the races by more than ½ length per furlong then I consider this excellent form. I also check the form of the horses in the race I have identified as potential rivals to the favourite.

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CHAPTER 20: STEP 4 – BRINGING IT ALL

TOGETHER

Once you've carried out the first three steps of the system you may have a list of several qualifiers and you need to decide which one to lay. I prefer to only lay one horse a day as I find I can get a very high strike rate this way. I like to use the table below to compare any list of qualifiers I have. Simply put a cross in the box if the warning sign is in our favour and then total them up. For each primary sign in our favour put two crosses in the box. However it is important to note that I don't necessarily just lay the horse with the biggest total, although that is generally the case. I like to look at the bigger picture. For example I might lay a horse with a smaller total because I think the standard of opposition in the race is so high that it overrides other factors. This will take time for you to pick up. I suggest keeping track of all the results of your qualifiers as this will help you improve your judgement. As you lay more and more horses your judgement will improve in leaps and bounds.

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Jump Racing

PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS

Horse 1

Horse 2

Horse 3

Horse 4

GOING DISTANCE CLASS 1ST TIME HURDLER 1ST TIME CHASER WEIGHT TRAINER OPPOSITION HOW MANY RIVALS SECONDARY WARNING SIGNS DAYS SINCE LAST RUN DRAW FIELD SIZE LTO WINNER? JOCKEY TOPSPEED AGE OF HORSE FORM TOTAL

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CHAPTER 21: EXAMPLE 3 EXAMPLE 3 – NOVICE HURDLE - STRATFORD

The above card comes from a class 3 handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m6f110y on good-firm ground. Looking at the betting forecast the favourite is Onward To Glory with a tissue price of 11/4. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Primary Warning Signs Looking at the Postdata table there are no immediate warning signs. The horse has a tick for both the going and the distance so we have to look in further detail at the racing history.

We can see that the favourite has never raced in a class 3 event before. It will now be racing against stronger opposition than it has ever faced. Finally looking at the trainer's course-win percentage below we can see that the favourite's trainer, P J Hobbs has a win percentage of 29%. This is a relatively high percentage but looking at the other trainers' figures it is not enough to scare us from laying this horse.

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Opposition Next we have to browse the race history of the other horse's in the race to see if we can find one with similar ability to our favourite.

The Rising Moon has a question mark over the going but has a lot of experience with Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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racing in high class races and has even won a class 3 hurdle before. This horse definitely has the ability to win this race.

Harrycat has one primary warning sign against it's name – it has a question mark over the distance. But like our favourite, HarryCat has also won a class 4 hurdle before but more importantly has won a class 3 hurdle as well. This horse is definitely in with a chance of winning this one.

Gaelic Roulette has no primary warning signs against it and is another horse that has won a class 4 hurdle before and as such must be considered worthy of winning this race. Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

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Rosemauve is carrying the biggest weight penalty of all the horses but it has performed well at this weight before and it may not be a problem. Thus horse looks like a serious challenger as it has run very well in class 3 hurdle events before. Secondary Warning Signs Onward To Glory has not raced for 64 days and so has no discernible form. There are 15 runners in this race which is a large field and gives us more chance that the favourite will be hampered during the race. Onward to Glory was a last time out winner which means it will be overbet by the

betting public giving us better value.

The jockey P Brennan has only raced on the horse once and in that race the horse was

soundly beaten. This could mean the two do not suit each other which is another

factor in our favour.

The Racing Posts top speed rating for Onward To Glory is only 70% of that of Dr

Cerullo and so the favourite may struggle to keep pace.

Conclusion

There is one primary warning sign in our favour:

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●

Onward To Glory is stepping up in class for this race and has not raced aginst this quality of opposition before.

We have identified 4 other horses in the race which we believe have the ability to beat the favourite. Finally there are five secondary warning signs in our favour: ● ● ● ● ●

The favourite has not raced for 64 days and so is out of running practice. The field size of 15 is large and there is more chance the favourite will be hampered. Onward To Glory was a last time out winner and as such will give us more value. The jockey has only run once on the horse before and was soundly beaten The favourite's topspeed rating is only 70% of the highest for the race and as such may struggle to keep pace..

Onward To Glory is another good choice for a lay.

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THE RESULT

As we can see our favourite came fifth. The eventual winner was Harrycat, one of the potential rivals I picked out before the race. Harrycat was amazingly priced at 20/1 which was a ridiculous price considering it's past results. Still that doesn't concern us. All we need to know is that we've had another successful lay.

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PART FIVE: MAXIMISING

PROFITS OK so you've learn how to pick losing horses now its time to pick up some techniques which will help you to maximise your profits.

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CHAPTER 22: LAYING AT THE RIGHT PRICE

We have discussed how to find horses to lay now we must focus on what price to lay at. If we are too generous with our odds we will be destroying any value we have in the bets. It is best to lay the horse as close to the race start as possible. Around 90% of bets are place in the “liveshow” period before a race. This takes place around 10 minutes before the race starts. As we are laying the favourite we are almost guaranteed that our horses' price will drift in the most. However sometimes we might find that our horse's price drifts out so much that it is no longer the favourite. In this instance the other punters have obviously realised, like we did, that there are doubts over it's ability. In this circumstance it really is up to you how to proceed. If you're convinced the horse won't win you might still want to lay it or the price might drift so far out that you don't want to take a risk. I have a rule where I don't lay any horse over 5.00 on the exchanges. I feel the risk is not worth the payout if it wins. There are some people who lay up to 30.00 and above but I certainly wouldn't recommend this. These people presume that these horses have no chance of winning and that it is low risk. But it only takes one winner every thirty bets to completely wipe out your profit and we all know big priced winners happen now and again. If I was you I would set a maximum price and stick to it at all costs. It will be better for you profits in the long run. Of course some of you will not be able to lay just before the race due to other commitments. You will have to set a price before hand. To get an idea what odds to give you should use the Racing Post's tissue prices as a guide. In addition you can check and see what prices other punters are giving on Betfair.

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CHAPTER 23: USING A BETTING BANK

It is essential to use a betting bank if you want long term profits. Every serious professional will have a betting bank and use a sensible staking plan. Someone who takes a disciplined approach to betting will always be more profitable than the one who follows a haphazard system. Given that we are laying favourites we have to expect some results to go against us from time to time. Hence our staking plan must be sensible enough to cover any losses. We want our betting bank to grow steadily and in time your bets will become bigger and bigger. Don't forget it is possible to lose your entire betting bank if you are careless so only bet with money you can afford to lose. We want to be risking 5% of the betting bank on every horse. That is to say if the horse wins the race we have to pay out 5% of our total bank. This is a small enough figure to cover our losing bets. For example if your betting bank is £1000 the most we want to lose on any bet is £50. So if the horse is priced at 5.00 you will be staking £10 on it to lose.

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CHAPTER 24: FINAL THOUGHTS

In this manual you have everything you will ever need to begin successfully laying horses. If you have no experience with horse racing you might want to re-read several sections of this ebook until you understand everything fully. I would wholly recommend that you begin by paper trading and don't risk any money for the first week. This will give you time to get used to the practice of laying horses. Don't forget you will lay winning horses from time to time. This is inevitable. When it happens study the race in more depth to see if there was anything you missed. If there was, learn from it and move on to the next lay. Good luck and enjoy your extra income! Kristian Jackman Author – 'How to Lay Favourites for a Living'.

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