BAQUERO Marcello. Pesquisa quantitativa nas ciências sociais Porto Alegre UFRGS, 2009..pdf
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71 explicam um fenômeno social, selecionar aquelas variáveis consideradas prioritárias na sua explicação. Nesse sentido, uma segunda sugestão de formulação de problema é útil. Como se sabe que pertencer ou não a um partido político depende de vários fatores, é tarefa do pesquisador identificá-los e justificá-los Qual é a influência do interesse por
teoricamente. Por exemplo:
política (A), de pertencer a um movimento
Neste caso, podemos identificar três
social e ter idealismo político (B) na identificação partidária (C)?
fatores
explicativos
que
são
considerados
relevantes na identificação partidária. A questão que surge é: por que essas três e não outras? Esta é uma das principais críticas ao método quantitativo, pois se sugere que, comparada com a pesquisa fenomenológica, tal formulação deixa de fora fatores explicativos fundamentais. Como resolver este problema? Vamos examinar a seguinte situação: O Prefeito da cidade de Marobin recebe dois milhões de reais para aplicar na área de lazer para a terceira idade do município. Como ele não deseja errar e desperdiçar os recursos decide contratar especialistas formados em Ciências Sociais para assessorá-lo sobre as áreas nas quais a prefeitura deveria investir. O pesquisador contratado, com Doutorado no Exterior, desenha uma pesquisa qualitativa na qual decide entrevistar 15 pessoas para determinar o que deve ser feito com o dinheiro. A pesquisa é composta de entrevistas em profundidade que
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72 Do ponto de vista do desenho da pesquisa não há reparos, pois foi bem feito. Porém, quando o Prefeito decidiu saber por que as pessoas estavam insatisfeitas, contratou uma pesquisa de opinião com toda a comunidade, a qual mostrou que a maioria das pessoas não foi consultada sobre onde investir esses recursos. O que você faria? Neste caso, o mais recomendável seria fazer um diagnóstico inicial consultando toda a comunidade. Após essa consulta, o pesquisador poderia sugerir duas ou três áreas, além da construção da piscina, para satisfazer a maioria da comunidade. A maior parte das situações de pesquisa que o pesquisador na área de Ciências Sociais irá enfrentar é desta natureza, daí porque é imperativo dominar um leque de opções metodológicas (quali-quantitativo). Outra característica da formulação de um problema envolve a sua testabilidade empírica, ou seja, há possibilidades de coletar dados para responder às perguntas formuladas? Uma forma de contemplar esta dimensão é avaliar as variáveis com as quais se está trabalhando. Por exemplo, estudar a democracia pode soar interessante,
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73 Objetivos Os objetivos num projeto de pesquisa se referem a uma construção do pesquisador para abordar um tema ou problema da realidade a partir do marco teórico selecionado. Geralmente, se estabelecem diferenças entre objetivos gerais e objetivos específicos. O objetivo geral diz respeito ao foco da pesquisa e do qual derivam os objetivos específicos. De acordo com King, Keohane e Verba (1994), os objetivos devem representar perguntas relevantes para ajudar na compreensão do mundo real, o que possibilita conhecer com mais profundidade alguns aspectos da realidade estudada. Em segundo lugar, se espera que os objetivos se constituam numa contribuição ao conhecimento acumulado numa determinada área, ou seja, um enriquecimento da teoria com base em novos conceitos postulados e novas reflexões entre variáveis. De maneira geral, as perguntas para as quais já se conhecem as respostas antecipadamente não se constituem em objetivos de pesquisa. Tal esforço é pouco útil,
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74 universo do estudo. Unidades de análise são típicos de estudos quantitativos, enquanto, casos dizem respeito a pesquisas qualitativas. Em síntese, objetivos servem de elo entre a teoria e a metodologia. Com base nessa descrição é a partir dos objetivos propostos nessa pesquisa que se resolvem questões teóricas e metodológicas. Objetivo geral Considere o seguinte objetivo geral decorrente de um problema que busca avaliar porque as pessoas não se envolvem na política. Analisar como se estrutura a personalidade política e suas implicações na promoção ou não de valores democráticos, com vistas a avaliar o fortalecimento ou não da democracia no seu sentido substantivo. Os objetivos específicos seriam assim formulados: a) identificar as agências transmissoras de socialização política;
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75 Como foi discutido no capítulo anterior, a escolha de temas de pesquisa é oriunda também do interesse que é despertado nas pessoas. Nesse sentido, o pesquisador identifica e seleciona os conceitos que representam o tema que ele pretende analisar. Em síntese, quando se empreende uma pesquisa quantitativa, necessita-se de hipóteses (previsões), ou, no mínimo, de questões exploratórias (que possam ser observadas), e definições operacionais de conceitos. À primeira vista, a formulação de hipóteses pode parecer um procedimento simples e mecânico. Entretanto, é nesta fase que a criatividade e a competência do pesquisador se materializam, pois dependendo da qualidade das hipóteses testadas, novo conhecimento pode ser construído, o qual pode ser validado ou não via testagem das mesmas. Quando se formulam hipóteses, está-se afirmando que algum evento específico pode ocorrer. Observamos o comportamento das pessoas numa direção antecipada, ou
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76 testadas na pesquisa subseqüente. De acordo com Schrader (1982), o que é importante na construção de hipóteses é ter presente que não se trata de uma experiência comum, mas de uma experiência essencial, por meio da qual o pesquisador faz previsões sobre os resultados do projeto de pesquisa. Hipóteses, na dimensão quantitativa, portanto, se referem aos meios pelos quais as implicações da teoria se transformam em fatos empiricamente observáveis. Uma hipótese é considerada uma explicação razoavelmente certa, até que tenha sido avaliada empiricamente e tenha passado por testes rigorosos. Hipóteses corretamente formuladas sempre terão o atributo de que sua não confirmação implica que a teoria está sob questão. Inclusive vale a pena testá-las somente por esta razão. De acordo com uma posição empírica rígida, uma hipótese só é considerada como tal quando se abre a possibilidade de ser mostrada falsa. Expectativas empíricas que você deduz dos dados nunca devem ser apresentadas como hipóteses. Se elas não estão ligadas logicamente a uma teoria, não vale a pena testá-las.
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77 SCHRADER ( 1974:47)
ANDER-EGG (1976:20) RUDIO (1978:78)
relacionadas”. “Hipóteses são exteriorizações conjeturais sobre as relações entre dois fenômenos. Representam os verdadeiros ‘fatores produtivos’ da pesquisa, com os quais podemos desencadear o processo científico. É válido o princípio de que uma investigação não pode produzir nada mais do que aquilo que as hipóteses anteriormente formuladas já afirmavam”. “A hipótese é uma tentativa de explicação mediante uma suposição ou conjetura verossímil, destinada a ser provada pela comprovação dos fatos”. “Chama-se de ‘enunciado de hipóteses’ a fase do método mét odo de pesquisa que vem depois da formulação do problema. Sob certo aspecto, podemos afirmar que toda pesquisa científica consiste apenas em enunciar e verificar hipóteses; estas são suposições que se fazem na tentativa de explicar o que se desconhece. Esta suposição tem por
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78 (8) Quem participa do Orçamento Participativo (OP) está mais propenso a se identificar com um partido político; (9) Quanto mais uma pessoa se interessa e acompanha eventos políticos, maiores as possibilidades dela se associar a um partido político.
Algumas confusões De maneira geral, hipóteses muitas vezes são confundidas com observações ou constatações. Uma observação, ou constatação, se refere ao que é, ou seja, ao que é visto. Por exemplo, o pesquisador pode visitar uma escola onde ele constata que a maioria dos alunos é composta por imigrantes. Sem nenhuma informação adicional,
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79 conclusões com base na probabilidade, ou seja, a probabilidade de a hipótese ser verdadeira. Hipóteses específicas requerem menos observações do que hipóteses gerais. Dessa forma, uma hipótese pode ser reformulada para que seja testada em termos específicos. De maneira geral hipóteses podem ser classificadas em quatro tipos, a saber: 1. Casuísticas – quando se referem a um fato específico. 2. Periodísticas – quando se referem à freqüência de um acontecimento ou quando antecipam determinadas características baseadas no conhecimento anterior do problema. 3. Relacionais (descritivas) – quando estabelecem relações entre variáveis.
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80 Já no caso de hipóteses inferenciais, a situação é um pouco mais complexa, pois exige que o pesquisador defina a direção das variáveis, num sentido de causa e efeito. Essa relação de causalidade é um dos pontos de divergência entre cientistas sociais. O que é importante salientar é que na formulação de uma hipótese inferencial o pesquisador define a variável efeito e a variável causa. Veja os seguintes exemplos derivados das hipóteses descritivas: (e) Pessoas mais idosas tendem a ser mais felizes; (f) Quanto maior o índice de desemprego maior a violência; (g) Uma maior freqüência a cultos religiosos aumenta o conservadorismo político dos fiéis;
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81 Tal posicionamento, obviamente, resulta do domínio das diferentes teorias sobre esta temática que o pesquisador possui, e do contexto pesquisado. Isto não implica que um tipo de hipótese seja superior a outro, mas dependendo dos objetivos da pesquisa o investigador pode ser solicitado a dar sugestões concretas sobre em que área pontual é preciso incidir. Existem três tipos possíveis de hipóteses inferenciais que denotam a natureza das relações estabelecidas entre variáveis: (i) Sim, enquanto A aumenta, B também aumenta, (hipótese simétrica).
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82 exemplo, se um cientista social acredita que existe uma relação entre interesse por política e preferência eleitoral por partidos de esquerda, ele pode hipotetizar que, quanto mais as pessoas se interessam por acontecimentos na área política, maior a possibilidade de escolherem candidatos e partidos de esquerda.
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83 •
Indução é o processo pelo qual o pesquisador inicia com observações
específicas e as combina para produzir uma fórmula mais geral de uma relação, ou seja, uma hipótese. O estudo ou abordagem dos fenômenos se direciona para planos cada vez mais abrangentes, indo das constatações mais
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84 Desta maneira a pesquisa requer a habilidade de se movimentar do nível conceitual para o nível operacional e vice-versa. A habilidade é exigida não só em termos da construção de experimentos, mas também na capacidade de aplicar os
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85 Expositiva
Dialogado
Integração
Fonte: Elaboração própria. Se hipotetiza que o Seminário C seria o mais adequado a ser aplicado, pois
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86 Erro Tipo I Para compreender a lógica do erro tipo I no desenvolvimento de um projeto quantitativo da pesquisa, é pertinente retomar conceitualmente o significado de três
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122 Os questionários são padronizados e as perguntas apresentadas a todas as pessoas, exatamente com as mesmas palavras e na mesma ordem, contendo perguntas com “alternativas fixas” (fechadas) e perguntas abertas. As perguntas fechadas estão limitadas às alternativas apresentadas. Podem ser “sim” ou “não”, e também permitir a indicação de vários graus de aprovação ou desaprovação, ou consistir de uma série de respostas, dentre as quais a pessoa escolhe uma. As perguntas abertas destinam-se a permitir uma resposta livre e não limitada por alternativas apresentadas. Do ponto de vista da obtenção de informação necessária para determinada pesquisa, cada tipo de pergunta tem certas vantagens e algumas desvantagens. Uma pergunta fechada pode aumentar a segurança de que as respostas são dadas num quadro de referência significativo para o objetivo da pesquisa e sob uma forma utilizável na análise. Em suma, as perguntas fechadas são mais eficientes quando as possíveis alternativas de respostas são conhecidas, limitadas quanto ao número e bem distintas. As perguntas abertas são necessárias quando a questão é complexa, quando não se conhecem as suas dimensões significativas, ou quando o interesse da pesquisa é a exploração de um processo ou da formulação de uma opinião individual. No processo de elaboração de um questionário, a clareza e a precisão no estabelecimento das categorias (alternativas de resposta) de cada pergunta formulada são essenciais. Para que muitas respostas possam ser organizadas de modo a serem usadas para responder ao problema de pesquisa, elas precisam ser agrupadas em certos números de categorias. Em face disso, a questão que se impõe é a de encontrar alternativas adequadas para que se possa extrair sentido da massa de informações que serão coletadas.
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123 A fim de decidir quais são as categorias significativas, é preciso escolher algum princípio de classificação. A pergunta da pesquisa, seus objetivos ou as suas hipóteses, apresentam a base para a escolha dos princípios de classificação. As categorias também devem atender a algumas regras básicas, entre as quais: a) derivar de um único princípio de classificação; b) devem ser mutuamente exclusivas; c) devem ser exaustivas - possibilidade de colocar qualquer resposta de uma das categorias no conjunto. Subsídios para a construção de questionários Para a elaboração de um questionário devem ser considerados alguns aspectos, referentes a formulação de perguntas, tais como: conteúdo, redação, forma de resposta à pergunta e disposição das questões. A este respeito Selltiz et al. (1975, p.619-643), recomenda os seguintes passos. Quadro 19- Construção de questionários O conteúdo das questões:
Esta questão é necessária? Qual será exatamente a sua utilidade?
o
O assunto desta questão requer várias perguntas? o
As pessoas têm a informação necessária para responder à questão? o
A pergunta deve ser mais concreta, específica e ligada à experiência pessoal de quem responde? o
O conteúdo da questão é suficientemente geral e isento de concretude e especificidades espúrias? o
As respostas exprimem atitudes
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124 específicas? O teor da questão está viesado ou carregado numa direção, sem outras perguntas que equilibrem a acentuação? o
As pessoas darão a informação solicitada? o
A questão visa identificar uma atitude? Comportamento? Predisposição? o
A redação das perguntas:
A pergunta pode ser mal compreendida, está redigida sem clareza? o
A questão exprime adequadamente as alternativas a respeito do tema? o
A pergunta é equívoca, traz suposições não-explicitadas ou de conseqüências não-percebidas?
o
O sistema de referência é claro e uniforme para todos os respondentes? o
A redação é tendenciosa, emocional ou inclinada para determinado tipo de resposta (resposta dirigida)? o
Há probabilidade de que o enunciado da questão desperte objeções, de qualquer tipo, da pessoa que responde? o
Uma redação mais pessoal ou a menos pessoal traria melhores resultados? o
A pergunta seria melhor apresentada sob uma forma mais direta ou indireta? o
A forma de resposta à questão formulada:
A questão pode ser melhor formulada, de modo a exigir um sinal como resposta (resposta
o
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125 ou fechada acompanhada de uma aberta? Quando é usada resposta de controle, qual o melhor tipo para essa pergunta: dicotômico, escolha múltipla ou escala? o
Se for empregado um quadro, ele abrangerá adequadamente todas as alternativas importantes, sem superposição e com uma ordem justificável? Sua extensão é razoável? A redação dos itens é imparcial e equilibrada? o
A forma de resposta é fácil, definida, uniforme e adequada para o objetivo? o
A disposição questionário:
das
perguntas
no
A pergunta tende a influenciada pelo conteúdo questões anteriores? o
ser das
A questão é apresentada de maneira natural? Está em exata ordem psicológica? o
A questão é apresentada muito cedo ou muito tarde, para despertar interesse, receber a devida atenção, e evitar resistência? o
Fonte: Elaboração própria. O que o questionário e a entrevista medem? Questionários e entrevistas são utilizados pelos pesquisadores para transformar as informações dadas pela pessoa entrevistada em dados quantitativos ou numéricos. Na preparação do instrumento de medida, o pesquisador deve ter cuidado em relação aos seguintes aspectos: 1. Em que medida uma pergunta pode influenciar a resposta do entrevistado?
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126 3. Em que medida as perguntas geram respostas aleatórias (que a pessoa entrevistada não entende)? O gráfico a seguir mostra os tipos de questões mais utilizadas num instrumento quantitativo.
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127 Quadro 20 – Tipos de perguntas
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128 DIRETAS Você gosta do seu trabalho? Sim Não Depende Não Sabe Não respondeu
INDIRETAS O que você pensa sobre seu trabalho? Inferências via padrão de respostas Gosta Não Gosta Tanto Faz
Qual a sua opinião sobre o regime cubano e Fidel Castro?
SENSITIVAS: Você é comunista?
Demográficas
Opinião
Qual o seu estado civil? 1. Casado 2. Solteiro 3. Outro
Você acha que o matrimônio contribui para uma relação significativa entre um homem e uma mulher? 1. Sim, contribui 2. Não contribui 3. Indiferente
Atitudinais
Atualmente não dá para confiar nos outros? 1.Concordo 2. Discordo Porquê?_______________
Você acha que atualmente pode-se confiar nos outros? 1. Sim 2. Não Porquê?________________ Res osta não estrut estrutura urada da (abe (aberta rta ( -
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129 Além das perguntas demográficas que são facilmente identificáveis, o pesquisador necessita diferenciar entre perguntas de percepção (atitudinais) e perguntas de comportamento. Isto porque, como foi observado, nem sempre a opinião emitida é consistente com o comportamento do entrevistado. O exemplo mais comum, e que ilustra essa assimetria, é o que se refere a pessoas que opinam que fumar faz mal a saúde, porém, eles próprios não conseguem parar de fumar. É o que se denomina de diferencial semântico. Tal distinção é fundamental na análise teórica dos dados, pois enfatizar exclusivamente a dimensão de percepção, sem analisar a dimensão
comportamental,
pode
distorcer
a
realidade.
Igualmente, é recomendado usar indicadores de intervalo, pois podem posteriormente ser transformados em variáveis nominais ou ordinais, pois o contrário não se aplica. O quadro a seguir apresenta uma síntese dos componentes que precisam ser levados em conta na elaboração de um questionário.
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130 Quadro 21 - Etapas de preparação de questionário Identificar os objetivos para os quais o questionário está a) tipo de população b) professores - alunos sendo preparado; c) mulheres - homens Determinar especificamente a informação que você d) analfabetos – alfabetizados e) partidos - instituições espera obter com a aplicação do questionário. e) único questionário Perguntas Selecionar um formato de resposta: A decisão depende de vários fatores: a) fechadas 1) número de respondentes; 2) quantidade e tipo de informação que você necessita; b) abertas; 3) tempo para processar e interpretar a informação; 4) a possibilidade de antecipar as respostas possíveis; c) uma combinação. 5) perguntas nominais, ordinais ou de intervalo. 3) Identificar quadro de referência dos entrevistados Qual a terminologia mais adequada para este grupo; Qual o grau de informação dos respondentes (respondem por obrigação?); Existe uma característica particular do grupo estudado? Perguntas isoladas; 4) Elaborar as perguntas Bateria de perguntas; Dados demográficos; Número de categorias de cada pergunta 5) tipos de variáveis utilizadas na construção de questionários a) demográficas ou de identificação – dispostas no início, o que facilita o aproveitamento em caso de desistência. Exemplo: idade, sexo, profissão, escolaridade. b) Atitudinais – contemplam dimensões cognitivas, quando se indaga a opinião das pessoas. Exemplo: Você considera que brasileiro sabe votar? c) Comportamentais – visam o comportamento real das pessoas. Exemplo: Em quem você votou para Presidente da República nas últimas eleições? c) Sensitivas – dispostas no final, pois pode ocorrer algum tipo de atrito quando se trata de valores pessoais. Exemplo: classe social, renda e religião. Preparar folha de sumário
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131 4) usar questões de contingência (se responde sim, então); 5) introdução do questionário; 6) elaborar instruções para responder ao questionário; 7) tipo de coleta de dados: entrevista/ questionário/grupo. Fonte: Elaboração própria. Cuidados com o processo de entrevistas De acordo com Weisberg e Bower (1977, p. 62), existe um conjunto de normas para obter respostas honestas dos entrevistados, no entanto, esses procedimentos devem ser ajustados dependendo da população entrevistada. É diferente entrevistar a população em geral em comparação com um público-alvo específico, por exemplo, empresários. Alguns dos aspectos cruciais na realização da entrevistas são sumariados a seguir: a) Privacidade. A primeira regra é, sempre que possível, conduzir a entrevista sem uma audiência. Se outros membros da família estão presentes, sua presença pode influenciar as respostas dos entrevistados. Em países como os da América Latina, nas entrevistas, principalmente com as classes mais pobres, é muito difícil ter um ambiente de privacidade total. Nesse caso, nas pesquisas por nós realizadas, orientamos os entrevistadores a anotar toda e qualquer influência da presença de outros membros durante a entrevista. Essas informações, posteriormente, são examinadas e levadas em conta na hora da análise dos dados, pois a prática tem mostrado que essas interferências fazem parte da cultura política desta região. b) Fazendo as perguntas. Espera-se que o entrevistador formule as perguntas na forma como foram escritas e na ordem em que apareçam no questionário. Tal precaução tenta evitar distorções que poderiam ser geradas se cada entrevistado conduzisse a entrevista à sua maneira. Isto introduziria muitas
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132
Em síntese, mesmo que o instrumento de pesquisa tenha sido feito com o maior cuidado e rigor científico, pode ir por água abaixo se os responsáveis pela entrevista não observarem as precauções necessárias para gerar uma informação honesta e consistente. Deriva daí o aspecto crucial de sessões de treinamento dos entrevistadores antes de ir ao campo. CAPÍTULO 8 Noções básicas de técnicas amostrais Suponha que estamos interessados em tentar compreender por que os cidadãos de uma cidade mostram elevados índices de desconfiança em relação à política e aos gestores públicos. Uma das formas recomendadas para alcançar este objetivo seria conversar com diferentes pessoas e chegar a conclusões sobre esta indagação. Suponha ainda que a cidade na qual o pesquisador está interessado é composta por um milhão de moradores. Na prática, tentar conversar com todos eles é tecnicamente
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133 possibilitem tomar decisões maximizando os recursos para uma distribuição otimizada para a maioria da população alvo da pesquisa. Os governos recorrem a esta técnica para gerar subsídios que os ajudem a elaborar políticas públicas eficientes e eficazes; o mercado também se utiliza deste mecanismo estatístico para tomar decisões coerentes. No entanto, os cientistas sociais na América Latina ainda demonstram ceticismo a respeito do valor e da utilidade desta técnica. Neste capítulo, faz-se uma retrospectiva histórica da amostragem, bem como se apresenta alguns exemplos de sua utilidade nas Ciências Sociais. Um dos aspectos centrais da idéia de amostragem é aquele que se refere ao conceito de representatividade. Enquanto, por um lado, se argumenta que somente um levantamento completo da população pode ser considerado representativo, por outro lado, Kaier (1930), um dos primeiros estatísticos a defender a noção de amostras representativas, defendia ser possível usar uma técnica que ele denominou
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134 esclarecidos. Em primeiro lugar, quando se fala em “população” nem sempre estamos nos referindo a indivíduos. Podemos falar de unidades de análise compostas por: organizações, escolas e autoridades locais. Em segundo lugar, “população” significa um grupo discreto de unidades de análise e não uma população no sentido convencional, como, por exemplo, a população de Porto Alegre ou do Brasil. Quando utilizamos uma amostra, estamos selecionando unidades de análise de uma população claramente definida. Obviamente, algumas populações podem ser muito grandes e existe pouca probabilidade de que todas as unidades da população possam ser incluídas, em virtude do tempo e dos custos envolvidos. Em alguns casos, o número de unidades de análise pode ser reduzido de tal forma que todos possam ser incluídos. Entretanto, na maioria das vezes, os pesquisadores enfrentam a necessidade de calcular uma amostra. De maneira mais geral, o pesquisador busca uma amostra representativa, ou seja, uma amostra que possa ser tratada como se fosse toda a população.
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135 igual de ser incluída na amostra. Nas formas mais convencionais de amostragem probabilística, tais como amostragem aleatória, cada unidade tem uma probabilidade igual de ser incluída. Por sua vez, amostragens probabilísticas permitem a seleção de uma amostra representativa, e que na teoria da probabilidade permite generalizar para a população os resultados obtidos na pesquisa. No caso de amostras não-probabilísticas, cada unidade de análise da população não tem uma probabilidade igual de ser incluída na amostra. No que diz respeito à amostragem não-probabilística, considere a seguinte situação: designa-se uma tarefa a um entrevistador para realizar cinqüenta (50) entrevistas (25 do sexo feminino e 25 do sexo masculino) no shopping Iguatemi. Munido dessas informações, o entrevistador se posiciona pontualmente às dez horas da manhã num dos pontos do shopping e começa a entrevistar as pessoas uma a uma. Conseguiria uma amostra representativa? Embora não seja impossível que a amostra seja representativa, surgem muitas dúvidas em relação à sua representatividade. Por exemplo, as pessoas
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136 Tamanho da amostra Uma das perguntas mais freqüentes na pesquisa quantitativa se refere ao tamanho da amostra. Qual é o tamanho indicado? Embora pareça uma questão simples de cálculo, é uma das perguntas mais difíceis de responder. Sudman (1976) sugere levar em conta dois elementos: (1) reproduzir amostras já calculadas por outros pesquisadores e, (2) levar em conta o financiamento da pesquisa. De fato, não existe uma única resposta a esta pergunta, mas existem alguns critérios que podem ser utilizados. Em primeiro lugar, na maioria das vezes o pesquisador enfrenta déficits em termos de recursos e tempo de tal forma que decisões sobre o tamanho da amostra sempre devem levar em conta esses aspectos. Não faz sentido construir uma amostra de tamanho ideal para um projeto se você não tem a quantidade de recursos necessários para alcançar o objetivo da pesquisa. Outro elemento a ser considerado diz respeito ao valor da informação a ser
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137 Nessa perspectiva, se o pesquisador tem certeza a respeito de algum fato ou informação e se acredita que novas informações não mudarão a forma de pensar do pesquisador, então essa nova informação tem pouco valor. Considere, por exemplo, o caso do candidato a deputado federal que acredita na sua reeleição a despeito dos dados de pesquisa mostrarem o contrário. Em segundo lugar, quanto maior o tamanho da amostra, maior sua precisão. Porém, contrário ao que se esperaria, o tamanho da amostra relativa ao tamanho da população (n/N) raramente é relevante em relação à precisão da amostra.
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138 expectativa de salário. Essa associação com dados nominais ou ordinais poderia ser visualizada. Veja o exemplo abaixo: Quadro 22- Visualização de relações entre variáveis Cedo
Intermediário
Baixa
n > 5
n > 5
n > 5
Intermediária
n > 5
n > 5
n > 5
5
5
5
de chegada
Horário
Tarde
Expectativa salarial
Alta
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139 (parâmetro) está composta de 1500 alunos. O ideal seria, para não estar preocupado com as complexidades da inferência, entrevistar todo mundo. Dessa forma, somente teríamos que descrever o conjunto de atitudes a respeito da problemática sob análise. No entanto, localizar os alunos (distribuídos em diferentes campi ) levaria muito tempo, além do custo de deslocamento ser elevado. Por outro lado, também dispomos de um prazo definido para fazer a pesquisa. Neste caso temos que recorrer ao método representativo. Ou seja, escolhe-se uma parte da população (1500) para ser incluída na amostra. Essa amostra gerará resultados (estatísticos ou estimativa) que permitirão generalizar
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140 Também não existe ainda o hábito de pessoas responderem a questionários enviados por correio. De maneira geral, a taxa de devolução está aquém do esperado, gerando problemas de generalização. Nesse sentido, é fundamental, antes do pesquisador optar por um ou outro tipo de coleta de dados, avaliar se a técnica a ser utilizada possibilitará fazer generalizações sem distorcer os resultados. No Brasil, em virtude das suas características sócio-econômicas, do ponto de vista de maximizar o poder de generalizar, a técnica mais recomendável para a maior
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141 Quadro 23- Etapas iniciais do Método Representativo Etapa 1
Etapa 2
Etapa
Exemplo
Conceito
Identificar a
Alunos de
Parâmetro
população com a qual
Ciências Sociais
se vai trabalhar.
(N=1500).
Escolher a
Via telefone.
forma de coleta dos
Via correio.
dados.
Via internet.
Técnica amostral
Face a face. Etapa 3
Definir tempo
1 mês com
Elementos
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142 tabelas randômicas, ou de sorteio aleatório propriamente dito. Por sua vez, amostras não probabilísticas se referem a qualquer forma de amostragem que vai de encontro à amostragem probabilística.
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143 Quadro 24- Comparação entre amostras probabilísticas e não probabilísticas AMOSTRAGEM PROBABILÍSTICA AMOSTRAGEM NÃO PROBABILÍST PROBAB ILÍSTICA ICA 1) Cada elemento da população tem 1) É qualquer forma de amostragem que uma probabilidade conhecida e não- falha nas condições da amostragem zero de ser selecionado na amostra. probabilística.
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144 Um segundo tipo de amostras não probabilísticas ocorre por meio de amostras propositais ou determinadas por escolha a partir de propósitos específicos. Suponha que você está interessado em examinar as atitudes das pessoas que vivem em comunidades budistas. Neste caso, em virtude dos custos envolvidos, seria pertinente
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145 A segunda técnica mais empregada se refere à amostra sistemática. Este tipo de procedimento seleciona um elemento da população dentro de um determinado intervalo que inicia com um começo aleatório entre 1 e Y. Por exemplo, suponha que você quer selecionar uma amostra de 10% dos alunos de Ciências Sociais (n), de uma
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146 freqüentemente somos obrigados a utilizar amostras não proporcionais em virtude do tamanho de cada estrato. Nesses casos é necessário ponderar qual seria a melhor opção. Da mesma forma que em amostras estratificadas, no procedimento de amostra
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A PESQUISA QUANTITATIVA NAS CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS
Marcello Baquero
EDITORA UFRGS Porto Alegre, 2009.
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