Autonomy Presentation 2 503342
March 30, 2017 | Author: Arik Hesseldahl | Category: N/A
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Autonomy Trading and Financial Statistics
Autonomy Historical Trading Performance January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 Price £25.00
Autonomy Trading Overview Price Spot Average
$40.02
Current Last 10 Days Last 30 Days Last 60 Days Last 120 Days LTM LTM High LTM Low
£20.00 $32.01
£14.78 15.50 13.45 14.80 16.66 15.29 19.75 12.71
/ $23.66 / 24.81 / 21.53 / 23.69 / 26.67 / 24.47 / 31.61 / 20.34
£14.92 14.98 14.45 15.42 16.48
/ $23.88 / 23.97 / 23.12 / 24.69 / 26.38 -
Volume (000’s) 20,000
Average Volume (000's) 1,224 977 1,221 1,336 1,215 -
15,000
Note: Based on trading days.
£15.00 $24.01 10,000
£10.00 $16.01
5,000 £5.00 $8.00
£0.00 Jan-06
2
0 Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Autonomy Recent Trading Performance January 4, 2010 to January 24, 2011 Price £20.00 $32.01
Apr 21, 2010: Reported Q1 2010 results in line with analyst consensus.
Jul 22, 2010: Reported Q2 2010 results at the top end of guidance and slightly below consensus, guiding to a 4-7% q/q fall in Q3 revenues.
Stock price reaction: +0%
Stock price reaction: (9%)
Feb 3, 2010: Reported full year 2009 results in line with analyst expectations.
Oct 6, 2010: Announced expectations that Q3 revenues would be disappointing.
Volume (000’s) 20,000
Stock price reaction: (16%)
Stock price reaction: +1%
£18.00 $28.81
15,000
Nov 24, 2010: Announced ongoing work on a potential acquisition.
£16.00 $25.61
10,000
Stock price reaction: (6%)
Feb 10, 2010: Announced the offering of £500 ($800MM) worth of 3.25% convertible bonds due 2015, convertible at strike price of £20.63 ($33.03).
Oct 19, 2010: Announced Q3 2010 results and reaffirms FY11 guidance.
Stock price reaction: (6%)
£14.00 $22.41
5,000
Stock price reaction: +5%
£12.00 Jan-10
3
0 Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Recent Trading Volume At Various Prices January 4, 2010 to January 24, 2011 Current Trading Range: £14.78 / $23.66
Volume (MM) 50
47.6
40.5 40
34.0 30.2
30
27.0
26.1
25.1 20.3
20
14.5
17.7 12.9
10.4 10
0
6.9
6.4 0.0 £12.00
£12.50
£13.00
£13.50
£14.00
Min Range: £12.00 $19.21
£12.50 $20.01
£13.00 $20.81
£13.50 $21.61
Max Range: £12.50 $20.01
£13.00 $20.81
£13.50 $21.61
£14.50
£15.00
£15.50
£16.00
£16.50
£17.00
3.3
0.0
£17.50
£18.00
£18.50
£19.00
£19.50
£20.00
£14.00 $22.41
Trading Statistics at Various Prices (Based on Closing Prices) £14.50 £15.00 £15.50 £16.00 £16.50 £17.00 £17.50 $23.21 $24.01 $24.81 $25.61 $26.41 $27.21 $28.01
£18.00 $28.81
£18.50 $29.61
£19.00 $30.41
£19.50 $31.21
£20.00 $32.01
£14.00 $22.41
£14.50 $23.21
£15.00 $24.01
£15.50 $24.81
£16.00 $25.61
£16.50 $26.41
£17.00 $27.21
£17.50 $28.01
£18.00 $28.81
£18.50 $29.61
£19.00 $30.41
£19.50 $31.21
£20.00 $32.01
£20.50 $32.81
Volume (MM) % of Total % of Implied Float (1)
0.0 0% 0%
6.4 2% 3%
10.4 3% 5%
14.5 4% 7%
30.2 9% 14%
26.1 8% 12%
40.5 13% 18%
47.6 15% 22%
27.0 8% 12%
20.3 6% 9%
17.7 5% 8%
25.1 8% 11%
34.0 11% 15%
12.9 4% 6%
6.9 2% 3%
3.3 1% 2%
0.0 0% 0%
Cumulative Volume % Volume At Or Below Range Volume / Implied Float (1)
0.0 0% 0.0x
6.4 2% 0.0x
16.8 5% 0.1x
31.3 10% 0.1x
61.5 19% 0.3x
87.6 27% 0.4x
128.1 40% 0.6x
175.7 54% 0.8x
202.6 63% 0.9x
222.9 69% 1.0x
240.6 75% 1.1x
265.7 82% 1.2x
299.7 93% 1.4x
312.7 97% 1.4x
319.6 99% 1.5x
322.9 100% 1.5x
322.9 100% 1.5x
Days % of Total Days
0 0%
2 1%
7 3%
11 4%
18 7%
22 8%
30 11%
35 13%
17 6%
16 6%
17 6%
24 9%
37 14%
18 7%
10 4%
4 1%
0 0%
Cumulative Days % Days At Or Below Range
0 0%
2 1%
9 3%
20 7%
38 14%
60 22%
90 34%
125 47%
142 53%
158 59%
175 65%
199 74%
236 88%
254 95%
264 99%
268 100%
268 100%
Source: CapitalIQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60. (1) Assumes 220MM free float shares based on Capital IQ.
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NTM Revenue Multiples Over Time January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 Enterprise Value NTM Rev
2006 Mean Median Max Min 25th Perc 75th Perc
11.0x
10.0x
NTM Revenue Multiples Selected Multiple During 2007 2008 2009 2010
5.4x 5.4 6.8 3.5 5.0 6.1
8.2x 8.3 9.8 6.7 7.6 8.9
7.1x 7.4 9.0 4.5 6.6 8.0
6.7x 6.6 8.8 5.1 6.3 7.2
6.4x 6.5 7.8 4.9 5.9 7.0
Entire Period 6.8x 6.8 9.8 3.5 5.9 7.6
9.0x
8.0x 75th Perc = 7.6x
7.0x
Mean = 6.8x Current = 6.0x 25th Perc = 5.9x
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
3.0x Jan-06
5
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
NTM P/E Multiples Over Time January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 P/E
2006
60.0x
Mean Median Max Min 25th Perc 75th Perc
50.0x
NTM P/E Multiples Selected Multiple During 2007 2008 2009 2010
35.4x 35.9 53.2 25.4 30.7 39.7
39.5x 39.6 47.0 29.9 37.5 42.5
27.3x 28.4 37.8 15.6 23.1 31.5
19.8x 19.6 23.0 16.6 18.7 21.0
19.7x 19.6 22.7 16.4 18.7 20.8
Entire Period 28.2x 27.9 53.2 15.6 19.7 36.7
40.0x 75th Perc = 36.7x
30.0x Mean = 28.2x
25th Perc = 19.7x Current = 19.2x
20.0x
10.0x
0.0x Jan-06
6
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Shareholder Ownership Over Time ('000s) Company 1 Top 25 Institutional Holders Holdings (000s) Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter Ending Nov-10 Aug-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09
Institution
Current (000s)
% of Outst. (2)
Director & Related Holdings (1) TIAA-CREF Fidelity Investments OppenheimerFunds Schroders Investment Management Legal & General Investment Management Credit Agricole Group BlackRock Merrill Lynch Investment Managers Standard Life Investments Lone Pine Capital BlackRock BNP Paribas Ignis Asset Management Scottish Widows Investment Partnership GE Asset Management Vanguard Group Alliance Bernstein State Street Global Advisors Barclays Personal Investment Management Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Kuwait Investment Authority Societe Generale Credit Suisse JP Morgan Universities Superannuation Scheme
22,171 12,371 12,281 12,116 9,736 8,548 7,383 6,556 5,675 4,788 4,259 3,750 2,612 2,561 2,548 1,531 1,303 1,274 1,270 1,246 1,205 1,136 1,041 909 886
9.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
0 726 1,825 88 0 (153) 4,210 (700) (1,026) (700) 2 139 (49) (601) 500 4 985 (45) 559 (135) 327 495 (218) 767 268
(250) (438) (262) 1,890 0 5 1,757 5,366 (108) (783) 229 848 (186) 841 1,866 43 318 (114) 38 (29) (101) (87) 1,259 33 62
Total 101,623 42.0% 129,151 53.3%
4,271 7,268
7,177 12,198
Summary Top 10 Holders Top 25 Holders
Source: Capital IQ, UK Share Register as of 11/1/2010. (1) Includes holdings for Michael Lynch of 19,799 (8.2% of CSO) and Richard Gaunt of 2,373 (1.0% of CSO). (2) Based on 242MM shares outstanding.
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Sep-09
Jun-09
0 189 (705) 208 56 (370) (22) 19 (1,622) (4,586) 53 120 0 3 0 133 0 5 110 69 0 456 5,014 175 (512)
0 3,999 (12,502) 933 149 (46) 164 2 281 9,994 74 577 (656) (117) 0 1 0 75 118 1,285 0 (736) 939 (346) 75
0 7,959 0 47 0 308 329 (111) 0 0 73 150 (8) (64) 0 636 0 653 14 0 0 (557) 0 310 379
Total Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter (115) (244) (6,833) 2,584 (143) (1,207)
2,973 4,261
8,531 10,117
(80) (65) 916 120 (17) (315) (100) 553 (780) (348) 131 (389) 2,848 179 182 664 0 419 (84) 13 198 (69) (1,958) 10 556
(100) 0 (745) (150) (12) (282) 547 1,002 (1,714) 1,209 3,087 1,213 0 225 0 50 0 (570) (197) 43 781 (421) (3,995) (115) 0
Trading Statistics of Selected Companies ($MM, except per share information)
Company (FYE) Autonomy (Dec.) (1)
Trading Performance Prem / (Disc) to Stock Price LTM LTM 1/24/11 High Low £14.78 / $23.66
(25%)
Selected App. Infrastructure / Data Management Software Teradata (Dec.) $45.80 (1%) Informatica (Dec.) 42.69 (6%) TIBCO (Nov.) 21.46 0% Software AG (Dec.) 137.95 (8%) OpenText (Jun.) 46.86 (6%) Progress Software (Nov.) 42.79 (3%) Qlik Technologies (Dec.) 22.87 (18%) Pegasystems (Dec.) 33.38 (15%) MicroStrategy (Dec.) 91.00 (7%) Median (6%) Mean (7%) Selected Infrastructure Software VMware (Dec.) $87.73 (10%) Adobe (Dec.) 34.03 (7%) Citrix (Dec.) 64.70 (9%) BMC Software (Mar.) 48.27 (1%) Red Hat (Feb.) 42.08 (13%) Median (9%) Mean (8%) Selected SaaS Salesforce.com (Jan.) $127.83 (15%) Concur (Sep.) 50.63 (10%) SuccessFactors (Dec.) 29.00 (12%) Taleo (Dec.) 29.04 (10%) Median (11%) Mean (12%) Selected Tech Leaders Microsoft (Jun.) IBM (Dec.) Google (Dec.) Oracle (May.) Cisco (Jul.) Hewlett-Packard (Oct.) SAP (Dec.) EMC (Dec.) Accenture (Aug.) Dell (Jan.) Median Mean
$28.38 159.63 611.08 32.40 21.17 47.55 55.41 23.83 51.47 13.72
(10%) 0% (4%) (0%) (23%) (13%) (1%) (4%) 0% (22%) (4%) (8%)
FD Capitalization Equity Ent. Value Value
Trading Multiples Enterprise Value / Revenue EBITDA P/E CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E
LT EPS Growth %
Cash
16%
$5,811
$5,728
6.6x
5.9x
13.4x
11.3x
21.7x
18.6x
1.1x
11%
44%
17%
$1,028
66% 87% 140% 33% 29% 60% 79% 60% 32% 60% 65%
$7,992 4,928 4,206 3,979 2,733 2,066 2,042 1,337 1,044
$7,251 4,502 4,001 4,312 2,648 1,743 1,886 1,268 859
3.8x 7.1 5.3 2.9 2.9 3.3 8.8 3.6 2.0 3.6x 4.4x
3.5x 6.1 4.8 2.7 2.6 3.1 7.0 3.0 1.8 3.1x 3.8x
15.2x 28.1 19.6 10.2 9.1 10.8 58.4 29.1 15.0 15.2x 21.7x
13.2x 22.9 16.8 9.5 8.7 9.6 38.7 18.8 12.5 13.2x 16.7x
25.7x 38.8 29.5 14.8 13.1 18.7 105.8 37.3 29.5 29.5x 34.8x
22.5x 32.8 24.2 13.7 11.4 16.6 58.5 26.7 26.3 24.2x 25.9x
1.8x 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.1x 1.4x
9% 16% 11% 5% 10% 7% 25% 20% 10% 10% 13%
22% 27% 26% 25% 28% 32% 17% 18% 12% 25% 23%
13% 18% 16% 14% 18% 15% 52% 24% 12% 16% 20%
$741 426 245 148 385 322 156 69 184
109% 33% 57% 39% 56% 56% 59%
$39,024 17,923 12,943 9,068 8,414
$37,845 16,977 11,359 7,940 7,317
13.2x 4.5 6.1 4.0 8.5 6.1x 7.3x
11.1x 4.1 5.5 3.8 7.4 5.5x 6.4x
40.4x 11.8 19.7 9.8 30.4 19.7x 22.4x
33.5x 9.7 17.2 8.3 24.7 17.2x 18.7x
59.1x 17.8 32.1 16.7 55.5 32.1x 36.2x
48.9x 14.8 28.5 15.5 47.1 28.5x 31.0x
2.2x 1.2 2.4 1.1 2.5 2.2x 1.9x
19% 10% 11% 6% 16% 11% 12%
29% 37% 27% 36% 25% 29% 31%
23% 12% 12% 15% 19% 15% 16%
$1,629 2,468 1,591 1,495 1,097
106% 34% 86% 49% 67% 68%
$18,752 2,803 2,514 1,236
$17,495 2,454 2,180 972
10.6x 8.1 10.8 4.1 9.3x 8.4x
8.6x 6.7 8.6 3.3 7.6x 6.8x
58.2x 28.3 255.9 19.8 43.3x 90.6x
45.7x 22.5 159.9 16.1 34.1x 61.0x
108.1x 87.9x 66.5 54.2 483.3 263.6 39.3 31.6 87.3x 71.0x 174.3x 109.3x
3.0x 2.2 9.6 1.3 2.6x 4.0x
23% 21% 26% 24% 23% 23%
15% 24% 3% 14% 14% 14%
29% 25% 28% 24% 26% 26%
$1,281 637 334 264
$250,678 $217,170 205,572 200,847 203,307 189,656 168,601 162,079 121,405 97,902 109,235 120,937 65,961 67,625 56,399 49,210 35,887 32,085 27,032 19,163
3.3x 2.0 8.8 5.1 2.3 0.9 4.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 2.6x 3.1x
3.1x 1.9 7.4 4.4 2.1 0.9 3.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 2.4x 2.8x
7.7x 8.5 14.6 11.5 7.4 6.3 12.3 11.2 9.3 4.1 8.9x 9.3x
7.3x 7.7 12.2 9.2 7.1 5.9 10.6 10.9 8.4 3.9 8.0x 8.3x
0.9x 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0x 1.0x
7% 5% 18% 14% 9% 5% 11% 12% 1% 5% 8% 9%
40% 20% 49% 44% 27% 12% 31% 22% 14% 6% 24% 26%
12% 12% 18% 13% 12% 12% 16% 16% 12% 8% 12% 13%
$44,173 11,651 13,651 23,995 38,781 10,934 4,730 7,891 4,204 13,863
23% 31% 40% 51% 11% 25% 29% 43% 41% 18% 30% 31%
Source: CapitalIQ; based on consensus estimates. Cash balances pro forma for acquisitions. (1) USD Stock Price of $23.66. Autonomy figures converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
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Operating Statistics P/E/G '10-11E CY11E CY11E Rev Growth Op Margin
11.9x 13.9 20.6 17.3 13.1 9.9 18.5 19.0 18.8 9.7 15.6x 15.3x
11.1x 12.2 17.5 15.2 12.2 8.9 15.5 16.4 16.0 9.2 13.7x 13.4x
Illustrative Analysis at Various Prices ($MM, except per share amounts)
Illustrative Share Price:
AU @ Mkt £14.78 $23.66
Illustrative Autonomy Valuation Statistics £25.00 £26.00 £27.00 £28.00 $40.02 $41.62 $43.22 $44.82
£23.00 $36.81
£24.00 $38.42
0% 0% (25%) 16% (10%)
56% 59% 16% 81% 40%
62% 67% 22% 89% 46%
69% 74% 27% 97% 52%
76% 82% 32% 105% 58%
83% 90% 37% 112% 64%
$5,811 945 1,028 $5,728
$9,989 145 1,028 $9,107
$10,428 145 1,028 $9,545
$10,867 145 1,028 $9,984
$11,305 145 1,028 $10,422
Statistic (3) $866 963
6.6x 5.9
10.5x 9.5
11.0x 9.9
11.5x 10.4
EBITDA Multiples CY10E CY11E
$426 505
13.4x 11.3
21.4x 18.0
22.4x 18.9
Earnings Multiples CY10E CY11E
$1.09 1.27
21.7x 18.6
33.8x 29.0
35.2x 30.2
Implied Premiums Premium to Current Price Premium to Enterprise Value Premium to LTM High Share Price Premium to LTM Low Share Price Premium to LTM Average Share Price
Statistic £14.78 £3,579 £19.75 £12.71 £16.48
/ / / / /
$23.66 $5,728 $31.61 $20.34 $26.38
Valuation & Multiples Fully-Diluted Equity Value (1) Plus: Debt (2) Less: Cash (2) Fully-Diluted Enterprise Value Revenue Multiples CY10E CY11E
£29.00 $46.42
£30.00 $48.02
89% 97% 42% 120% 70%
96% 105% 47% 128% 76%
103% 113% 52% 136% 82%
$11,744 145 1,028 $10,861
$12,182 145 1,028 $11,300
$12,621 145 1,028 $11,738
$13,060 145 1,028 $12,177
12.0x 10.8
12.5x 11.3
13.0x 11.7
13.6x 12.2
14.1x 12.6
23.4x 19.8
24.5x 20.6
25.5x 21.5
26.5x 22.4
27.6x 23.2
28.6x 24.1
36.7x 31.5
38.2x 32.8
39.6x 34.0
41.1x 35.3
42.6x 36.6
44.1x 37.8
Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60. (1) Shares outstanding based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010 and options outstanding based on Autonomy Annual Report for the period ended December 31, 2009. (2) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010. Includes £500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of £20.63 ($33.03). (3) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010.
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