Assured Soccer Profits.pdf

July 22, 2017 | Author: skitter24 | Category: Odds, Gambling, Market Liquidity, Profit (Accounting), Direct Marketing
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Assured Soccer Profits System

A Sensible System For Sensible People Who Want To Make Small But Consistent Profits From Trading Soccer. Also available, a membership package with additional training through video, modules and ongoing updates.

The Small Print (Slightly Enlarged). This has to be called a gambling book even though I don’t really see it that way. That’s because it is so much more than mere gambling. It shows you how to make money from football by trading through a game using extremely sensible and logical steps.

You can lose money on any pure gambling related methodology, especially if you do it wrong. And some people can, sadly, make anything fail. The way to avoid failure with this is to take your time to study it properly and then practice without using your money until you are confident with exactly how it works. So, yes, it is gambling if you try to cut corners, rush it, and/or don’t give it time but, otherwise, it is simple as good as it gets as far as minimal risk betting (trading) is concerned.

If you lose money using this system in any way remember that massive research, SERIOUSLY MASSIVE RESEARCH carried out by people who really understand the subject matter went into making this as safe and as efficient as possible. Then also remember that we are all responsible for our own actions where any form of betting on sporting event is concerned. This strategy works and has been proven to work by many, but, like all such strategies, it will not work on every single event it is applied to. You can see many unsolicited testimonials the ASP supporting that claim. 2

I would also appreciate it very much indeed if you would refrain from copying and sharing this system.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In fact, if you want to share this system, I would actively encourage you to contact me so that I can explain how to do that in a legitimate way that allows you to make some money from introducing this to others.

The best way to contact me is to send an email to either: [email protected] or to [email protected]

The information contained in this book is as accurate as it possibly can be. However, things change constantly and if you spot any significant change then, please, bring any such change to my attention in case I am not already aware of it. The illustrations and images in here could look different when you see them on your own computer screen for any number of reasons and few, if any of them, will invalidate what is contained herein.

That is because the exchange market you use may alter and could experience technical issues. You could get Internet connection problems and various other issues. Again, these things happen and just know that the information brought to you here has been brought to you diligently and with as much care and attention as possible and, once published and put out there, corrections and alterations are hard to implement easily.

Some of the material within this publication was written in 2011 though the bulk of it was written or at least updated in early 2015. Ultimately, Assured Soccer Profits is a football correct score, “trading” system that aims to create profit over the long run. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Individual games will be losers and you might even get a few of these in a row. That doesn’t mean the system doesn’t work, it just means that it will not work all of the time on every game.

Understanding that is the difference between going on to make good money from this (which is why most people seek this type of information) and kicking it into touch before any profits come.

Mostly, it is my hope that you find the content of this book informative, educational and, above all, profitable. Thank you for investing in this publication and this strategy and here’s to your next pile of winnings!

Introduction We live in a world where our most popular national sport, football, has acquired a split personality and is often referred to in the international arena as soccer and so as to not confuse this in any way with American Football, I have incorporated this international flavour within the title.

Invariably, as you go through the book, you might notice the odd switch between the two terminologies from time to time and for this I beg your indulgence. I also switch between the “I” and the “We” at times as some parts need explaining in the singular and others in the plural depending on who might have been involved. I ask also for your indulgence with that and confess that sometimes I simply forget whether “I” or “We” is best. The search for seriously good, money making, football systems, especially systems with the ability to significantly reduce or completely A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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remove the downside betting risk, has occupied a fair chunk of my life for some considerable time now. It has been a passion to say the least and it has always seemed logical to me that, given time, patterns would emerge in football betting markets that could be used to continue to formulate safe, systemised gambling processes.

I started out on this adventure many, many years ago but when Betfair.com launched back in 1999/2000 I took a very keen interest in what was going on there and started to go to work on my very first football betting system that involved the LAY as well as the BACK.

This research led to the Football Cash Generator, the first real lay the draw system (something that has become all too well known since) and over time my knowledge of betting exchange based betting and trading systems has grown year upon year.

Little did I know that, back in 2005, a buyer of Football Cash Generator, Geoff Parle, would one day, six years later, become a working partner for a new project. In 2010 I went to work on this system with Geoff and it is Geoff’s initial idea about one particular market at Betfair.com that created the seed of what would become Assured Soccer Profits.

Many believe that you can never beat the odds. I believe otherwise and, by taking action over time in a live event, odds, specifically changing odds, can definitely be turned to our advantage.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Passion for a subject alone, of course, will not achieve the desired end result. Many hours of trialling ideas and testing their effects must then follow and failed ideas fly out of the window at pace, one after the other.

Disappointment can soon emerge and easily build. Is it worth persisting with such a goal one might ask?

Well, a seriously good football betting solution now is probably the most sought after betting solution there is amongst would be part time or even full time betting folk and occasional punters. Why?

Because football, unlike horse racing (my other great passion), is still predominantly very much in the weekend and evening domain. It is also very much on the increase in popularity; in stark contrast to horse racing (and its associated betting markets). It could be argued that horse racing is slowly on the decline. But no such argument could be made about football.

Who can really expect to crack football betting with all of its potential for influence (and abuse) from so many different directions? Football is rife with controversy and the performance of teams and individual players alike is often under close scrutiny because of its pure lack of consistency and logic.

Just look at all the things that can influence a football match (and this is by no means the entire list).

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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1) Poor or, perhaps, just disagreeable refereeing. 2) Yellow and red card decisions. 3) Players having “off” days. 4) Unfit players or teams or different fitness levels between teams. 5) Over-crowded fixture lists and low squad numbers. 6) Loss or absence of key players. 7) Injuries sustained during a match or even off the field. 8) Moody and juvenile players (no-one sulks quite like a footballer). 9) Inspired performances from under dogs or individuals. 10) Bad managers. Bad Players. Bad Teams. 11) Bad relationships in the team. Unrest and high profile sackings. 12) Unexpected goals against form or run of play through pure luck. 13) Team spirit (or lack of it). Speculation about imminent changes. 14) The financial status of a club (massive buying power, or debt). 15) Extreme bad weather and general pitch quality. 16) Let’s face it; even infidelity close to home has been known to influence on field relationships and, ultimately, performance!

Perhaps it would be better to not even get into the incidence of game fixing the like of which we have seen in the recent past (in, but not exclusively in, Italy for example). I’m sure I could go on with a list of what makes a systemised approach to football betting complicated but to say that, from a betting perspective, football is a volatile game doesn’t even go half way there. Many believe that you can only realistically get cash profits out of football betting of any kind through instinctive (experience based) betting based purely on watching the game – I absolutely disagree. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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In fact, over time I have come to believe that not watching a game is an advantage because you do not then reach for the back or lay button every time there is a foul, a corner or a free kick.

Why then should anyone believe that coming up with a football betting system that is all of the following, is even possible? 1) Safe –it isn’t ever going to cost you the shirt off your back or send you spiralling into stress unless you have over-committed. 2) Easy – anyone will find it easy to use with or without any prior football betting experience once they’ve mastered it. 3) Accessible – it can be used by anyone with even relatively small funds (a few hundred pounds) available to them at times that suit them. 4) Fast –it frees us of the need to study real form of any real kind or even the need to pay too much attention to the teams involved.

Could it even be possible? Yes, not only is it very possible but, subject to you following the guidelines we lay down for you, it is exactly what you have here in your hands right now.

Welcome to a world in which you can generate tax free income from football by following some well tested and yet very simple and logical steps. 8

I always have, and always will, watch with avid interest, the developing football markets on Betfair.com and develop constantly they certainly do.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I am always looking for a new way to combine markets or use elements of one particular market with elements of another to create profitable, reduced risk, systems.

I also look for signs (signals) from one market as to how it might affect another. That all said; I never once expected to be able to use just one market again to produce all the results I needed and I have Geoff to largely thank for opening my eyes again to that possibility.

Before speaking with Geoff, I was well down the road to producing another football system. And, when I saw his initial ideas, I stopped my research immediately, resigned my progress to the back burner and jumped into this new direction with gusto. ASP Making significant progress in the development of new ideas and new approaches to betting can really be like pulling teeth and with that said, let me introduce you properly to Geoff, a football betting enthusiast, like myself. He very kindly admits to being greatly influenced in his search for better and improved betting systems by my Football Cash Generator System.

Geoff has worked tirelessly on the core of this system that he and I are about to share with you and just to demonstrate how rich and divers individual backgrounds can be with those drawn to the experimental and discovery side of betting, Geoff is a retired dentist.

So when I say, glibly, that making significant progress in this field is like pulling teeth, well, he is in a unique position to make that comparison. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Geoff, I thank you for your contribution. Without which there would not have been an Assured Soccer Profits System.

The Basics This is a system designed and proven to produce small but steady returns. I recommend that it is used with small stakes. A small bank of £200 to £300 is sufficient to get you started providing you limit your potential losses to no more than 10% of that bank on one individual trading game.

By following, fully, the recommendations within this book it is a safe system as far as betting goes. In time, with confidence and experience, one can consider the stepping up of stakes, so long as there is an increase in betting bank size to keep liabilities in check.

However, think on this if you will, Geoff restricted his stakes to £10.50 total per game, typically with a maximum liability of around £40 or £50, and achieved profits in excess of £7,500 per annum as a result. Now, of course, I can’t say you’d achieve the same. You might achieve less. You might even achieve more. Much depends on time committed to it.

He has been sorely tempted to increase stakes and, on occasions, has done so, but only on occasions. The primary quest has always been to come up with a solution that anyone should be able to use and small stakes are not going to frighten you or most people. I hope you do much better with this than Geoff has and I know that many users of the system already have. Ultimately, we are all different and will apply what we learn in a different way. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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HERE’S A FACT TO GET YOU STARTED: If you keep to the same staking levels, at least initially, as Geoff has and apply those stakes to a similar number of games overall, you should experience similar results. But you could start even smaller at first.

If you use half the amount he does, you should experience around half the profit levels. That really does make this safe.

The basic stats on football rarely (if ever) change, as you will see later, and so you can compare results from previous years knowing they are still valid. This is important because Geoff is now fully retired and so the temptation might be to think that his results are no longer valid because they only run between 2010 and 2012. They are as valid today as they were on the day that they happened, you can check that for yourself.

It should be noted that the market we use for this system has also grown in use rapidly over the last few years offering, as a result, more and more games to trade and they will, I am sure, continue to grow with demand.

There is plenty of money about in our chosen market and the prices/odds therein are still as attractive as they ever were. Liquidity has rarely and should never really be an issue. It is also hard to see any reason why the odds we need should ever change for the worse over time and because of demand even if this became the most popular system ever.

Our system, this system, is based entirely around the betting exchange correct score market. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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And our examples and trials and tests and results have all been experienced around, specifically, the Betfair.com correct score market.

That is not to say that it would not work with other exchanges offering an equivalent market, because it would, but we make no reference to that having always used Betfair.com.

Geoff, specifically, trialled what you are about to see extensively for over a year before we first launched ASP and for well over a year after we launched and I use it whenever I feel like some football trading. Geoff recorded his results diligently between February 2010 and June 2012 and these can be downloaded and viewed by visiting/re-visiting the ASP site.

I add to those specific and detailed results a unique understanding of how this market reacts through experience gained in over 15 years now of studying football markets on Betfair.com. I understand this better than most. ASP The aim with this system is to greatly enhance the odds of success by having two bets within the one market which are not only mutually exclusive, but also diametrically opposed. They are, in many respects, pretty much total opposite ends of the same scale. HERE’S ANOTHER FACT: 12

You simply cannot lose on both of these bets within the one football match, it’s impossible.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If one bet looks like failing or has failed, the other must look like winning or has won and vice versa and one bet enhances the total return from the other.

And so we have an unusual situation where two opposing bets totally compliment one another. In Stock Market terminology this might be referred to as “one cancels other” i.e. “O.C.O.” This system was accordingly called “SOCO” during the work in progress and testing stage. However, we decided to call it The Assured Soccer Profits System because that better describes what you now have your hands on, assured profits. Our aim with this system is to place one bet, subject to acceptable odds, prior to the commencement of a game and another (perhaps broken into segments), also subject to acceptable odds, once the game is in-play. By following our filters and steps exactly, you will experience the following: 1. In most games that you bet on, you will make variable amounts of profit depending on the exit odds available to you. Some will produce more profit than others. 2. On some games you will lose some money but it will mostly be a small and very acceptable loss in the bigger overall picture if you are properly trading down your liabilities. 3. In the balance of games you will win small amounts or break even having decided to take an early bath and focus on safety. 13

The consistency comes from the high percentage of games that allow you to secure a profit, regardless of the final result, during the game.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In many of the games, your involvement in the game would have ended by half time.

There is scope to take more calculated risk if you so wish and to extend your time in the game to target a higher profit level. However, we do not recommend this until you are working with pure profit.

There are also going to be opportunities, if you look for them, to profit from developing score-lines in games. That’s harder to cover in a manual but is something I expand upon in videos for ASP members.

What Are We Actually Doing?

As briefly mentioned previously, the chosen market is the correct score market at Betfair.com. In-play games (in-running games) are essential as trading between a BACK and a LAY takes place during each match. To LAY is to bet that the result chosen WILL NOT happen and our bets are made with a view to:

a) Locking in a guaranteed profit or, if the game goes against us, b) to reduce a potential loss to zero or to an insignificant amount as near to zero as possible.

The bets for each match are placed using small stakes which are, in the early stages of learning, together targeted to produce a win of approximately £4 to £5 per match to begin with (or even less if you decide to be really liability conscious).

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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£4 to £5 doesn’t seem much but, as it is possible to bet on any number of matches simultaneously, the rate of return per 90 minutes can far and away exceed those figures. ASP It must be said that Geoff (and I) could easily have bet on twice the number of games that we did but, again, with a view to demonstrating that this system can be used to great effect by anyone, Geoff always kept his involvement at what he considers to be a “realistic and undemanding” level. I have often bet higher stakes and seen much higher returns but it is critical to keep to the basics here. There would be little or no point in demonstrating a system that “anyone can use” if, in fact, one needed to devote 12 hours per day to it! Also, if you don’t need to work hard, why work hard? It equally wouldn’t do to run a system that required a huge betting bank that would be out of reach to most part-time betting folk.

So this £4 to £5 (average profit per game) is recommended as the starting target when you at first commence with your use of this system. But you could start even smaller and should if you are using a small betting bank because, as with all things, by stepping up the amounts gradually, you can start to increase this over time as confidence builds.

Above all else, please do not rush it. In my experience more people lose because of impatience and greed than because of any other influence in any form of betting.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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In reality (taking all games into account), this slow but sure methodology has produced (see Geoff’s results spreadsheet on site) an average return per match bet of just over £4 and an average profit per day of just under £21 and that is taken from a snap shot over 427 betting days and equates to over £8,000 per annum. The total games covered on his sheet though, in the end, far exceeded this as you will have seen if you downloaded it.

Now that would make for an extremely useful pay rise for just about anyone. If you currently earn £30,000 a year (for example) this is like giving yourself a 27% pay increase! The best news of all is that the pay rise is tax-free!

More good news, the system does not demand that you stare at the television or computer without a break for each match as it is recommended that you “follow” each match on a live score update site such as flashscore.com (or a similar site). You would have the sound turned on so that you will be alerted whenever a goal is scored in one of your matches, goals are the key.

The alert from flashscore.com when a goal is scored is a big cheer. By using this site you need only act upon such an alert or act at specific times (such as at half time or just before) to reduce any liabilities. In many instances, the entire process is finished at half time and so, unusually, with Assured Soccer Profits, it isn’t always “a game of two halves” as the pundits are keen to say.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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From an absolute usage of time perspective, let us declare right here and right now what we consider to be a fair and accurate estimate of how much of your time this will take up. An individual game may take just ten minutes of actual required action on your part. So six games would equate to 60 minutes roughly as an approximation.

I think it is also important to stress here that you can almost certainly be doing other things at the same time. You could be watching TV, reading a good book, catching up with paperwork and so on. But do pay attention, don’t get totally distracted. There are 4 distinct periods of activity to the system: Period 1 – The Search Make an assessment of the games that potentially qualify ready to come back to later. Perhaps put a lay bet request in asking for a lower price than you can reasonably expect to get or than you can currently see (because you never know). To begin with, at this stage, you could set up your “My favourites” menu on Betfair.com ready with your games of interest. We’ll come back to “My Favourites” later. You would also add these games to “My Games” on the flashscore.com website. The search starts with simple, easily found facts (odds mostly) and can be enhanced with limited recent head to head form study. Period 2 – Setting Up The First trade

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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If you either saw no reason to make any initial searching lay bet during Period 1, or that bet simply didn’t get matched (taken); on the approach to kick-off, make your first lay bet in earnest providing it can be done within your own maximum/minimum odds criteria. If you did try to get a lower priced lay on earlier and you’ve done well and already have at least part of this lay matched then you top up to your intended stake here and now. That is your primary lay completed. Period 3 – Setting Up The Second trade This can be a bit of a variable. Either just after kick off put in and keep a lay request at a specified price for bet 2 (more on that later), so that when (if) the price has dropped to that level you get matched automatically. Or at a specific time (normally between 10 and 20 minutes into the game) make your second lay bet if appropriate then.

There are 3 possibilities with bet 2. It does not happen at all (the game has already moved on to a point that makes bet 2 redundant). Your bet is matched by the time you come back to it (you left it waiting) or you are now going to make bet 2 because a certain time has elapsed.

Also, with bet 2 it is often good policy that the bet is broken into smaller parts. There is no reason why you should not choose to break it into parts with each part requesting a progressively lower lay price. This is a highly recommended policy for liability reductions. Period 4 – The Profit Lock-In Or Liability Reduction Phase. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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At, or preferably, 4 or 5 minutes away from, half time, which will greatly depend on what you have done up to this point, green up (make every possible outcome a profit and smile) or reduce liabilities now to the minimum possible across the majority of the board (meaning across the majority of all final score outcomes). ASP What we should do now is move this along to the getting it set up to use stage so that these periods mean something in reality. Just before that though, I do need to throw out a cautionary statement for those among you more inclined to revert to “gambling”. Period 4 requires critical and specific action on your part. It is here, more than anywhere else, where this incredible system, a system that has made consistent and steady profit, can be eroded into loss and destroyed by failing to take action and, if that happens, it is going to happen because of the greed factor and your movement into pure gambling. If that happens, let us be totally clear:

YOU HAVE MESSED UP!

You must act at Period 4 to secure your profit or to minimise or greatly reduce your potential loss even if you have to do that on two or three games in a row. If you do not, then you have moved into pure gambling mode. Gambling is fine when it done with previous winnings and it is a measured gamble that has a good chance of accelerating profits.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Specifically, when you have progressed into funding the system from real profit made from it previously, then, holding off past Period 4 without taking immediate action is a possibility but please don’t leave it and hope; it doesn’t work like that. What can happen, when you have mastered the system, is that you can extend the “get out” period into the second half to a degree but only IF you worked hard to get your Period 2 trade for the smallest odds (and therefore the smallest liability) possible. This is not something I can cover in detail in this book but I will put some examples in.

The temptation in the early days on some games will be to wait because you expect positive action (a goal) at any time from one of the teams. Don’t get into this habit! At get out time, get out! Perhaps you will even be tempted to wait long into the second half. Believe me, between us, Geoff and I have made every single mistake possible when experimenting with this. Geoff made big mistakes through waiting in the early days of developing this idea. I have, more recently, deliberately and extensively tested waiting periods to find the holes and try to bring the system down. ASP In almost every case of a larger than “normal” loss being incurred, the mistake has been a failure to take action at Period 4. You will see why this action point is important as we move on. And trust me when I say that, between us, Geoff and I have used ASP on thousands of games. 20

Nb: larger than “normal” to me is bigger than 5 times the average profit. So if the average profit is £4, then £20 is a larger than normal loss and this should be seen as a rare experience. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

INDISPUTABLE FACT:

Take action always as directed at Period 4 and you will make profits over time, fail to take action and you may not make those profits. Geoff’s profit, over more than 24 months, include the small wins, the small losses, the occasional bigger losses and the bigger wins. The profit comes from the CONSISTENCY of his actions not what happens on any individual game.

TIP:

Start out with a small first lay at Periods 2 and 3 and then you will not put yourself under pressure right from the beginning.

What Do You Need To Know To Set It All Up?

You must have an Internet connection, because this has to be done online and you will need a betting exchange account. ASP

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We use Betfair.com for this and specifically, of course, their football markets. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If you are a first time user of Betfair.com, you may not see the exact screen images in this publication. Don’t worry, once you have set up your account, you will find what you need easily enough.

In the unlikely event that you are not aware of Betfair.com and new to this whole thing, the illustration above should still help you to find it. If you have not got a Betfair.com account then go ahead and sign up for one, they have good getting started video tutorials to get you under way.

If you click on or copy and paste the link below into your browser, you will be able to view those getting started videos:

http://learning.betfair.com/en/

Moving on; click on the Football sub-tab on the page you see in the image above (be aware that the picture on that page will change daily) and it takes you to a screen like the one below: ASASP

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Just below what you see in the image above, there is a popular sample of todays’ in-play football menu and a link below the sample to more. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Let us pause here and briefly explain why we need “In-Play” just in case it isn’t already clear. We are going to set up a “strategy” that has three primary betting actions. The first is carried out prior to a match commencing. The second is carried out during the early stages of a match and the third is carried out when a profit can be secured or we need to act to reduce any potential loss. This third part can be ongoing if it cannot be achieved all at once. Thus we need an “In-Play” market, simply meaning “betting is possible during the game”. Fortunately, the bulk of all Betfair.com covered games are now in-play games. A common question is “does that mean that working people cannot possibly use this system?” ASP Hardly; most good “profitable” football happens during the evening and/or over the weekend but also we are now spoilt by the availability of the “smart phone”.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Weekday afternoons (and definitely weekday mornings) rarely have anything monumental going on as far as football is concerned but because of the “smart phone” even these trading periods are available to you even if you cannot be in front of a computer during these times.

As you can see, Betfair has a mobile site. So, if you can’t be in front of your computer screen at home, then you can use Betfair’s site on the move.

With the introduction of 4G now, the mobile site is very fast as well and a breeze to use especially as we mostly only need to use the one betting market and don’t have to suffer many time delays when having to load from one screen (market) to another. 24

On my phone the movement between screens is actually as fast if not faster than the normal online version but much depends on where you are and the network you’re with on your mobile deal. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Before using my phone I may have already (earlier) identified the games of interest to me and filtered out those that hold no interest. I would then make a list of these games so that I don’t forget them. The real enthusiast who wants to add this income stream to existing full time income and, finds him or herself in a position to operate this system all day long might well also take advantage of mid-week, day time games. But that is an individual call.

You can, I assure you, make good money without that time period. Obviously the weekends present the biggest profit potential to us during the main football/soccer season but you can look at Betfair.com any day now (winter or summer) and you will find, generally, at least twenty games listed on their in-play menu. ASP Do not disregard the summer either as there are many overseas leagues in operation during our off season along with a large number of international competitions.

We are now going to take a look at the filters you should apply to deselect games that are considered to be too risky for your attention until you have more experience and can trade, pretty much, any game.

Filters. 25

Please note that whilst reference may be made to conducting these search and filter exercises in the morning or even during the night before, you should always go back and check everything just before the game. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Betting markets are often not properly formed (and therefore the prices can be false) until nearer the start of the event, especially with the lesser known overseas football leagues.

The image above is a snap shot of an “in-play” game menu. Our first piece of filtering work is to filter out, from the in-play coupon list, games where there is an overwhelming favourite. Why? An overly dominant team increases the likelihood that our strategy may fail, that’s why. Our strategy requires goals in a game but the fewer goals the better. The perfect game is one that is 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 at half time and, ideally, we do not want more than 2 goals to one side in the first half and certainly not too often. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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It is suggested that any odds-on favourite game where the favourite has odds that are less than 1.7 is removed. I have highlighted them on the image above. Tests have shown that keeping above 1.7 is the safest bet but you may go under that figure if you wish providing the other filters stack up. But don’t go too far under, maybe 1.67 or 1.65 but no lower. Please bear in mind that some of these markets are not necessarily fully formed so, for now, dump anything that looks like it should be out based on this filter even if it is only the price to back (blue column) that seems to be caught by this filter.

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This exercise can easily be carried out early in the morning or even the night before with a view to setting up “My Favourites”. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

The Betfair.com “My favourites” facility is perfect for this and, using this, would be a sensible way to isolate the games that potentially interest you so that you can come back to a list of just those rather than a list of all again later. An explanation on how to use the Betfair.com “My favourites” facility is contained towards the end of the book for those who need it. ASP Other Match Selection Filters:

This is largely common sense but you may wish to remove any games based around leagues or regions of the world where you just find the team names enough to put you off. And definitely remove games from leagues that you cannot easily get a current live score from on the common live score sites (flashscore.com/livescore.com).

In addition, it generally pays to ignore under 21 games and reserve team games unless they are internationals with big market interest (good liquidity) and, sorry ladies, women’s football unless they are big international events (with good liquidity). If we revisit the image above, we will see plenty of under 21 games that we wouldn’t bother with along with one reserve game.

It is highly likely that you will not find these games listed on the www.flashscore.com and www.livescore.com sites anyway. Even if you do, they are best ignored. Another big issue with this type of game along with general lack of liquidity that comes with them (bets matched in the market) are nonsensical odds that aren’t always realistic. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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You will find many games listed on Betfair.com like this, especially youth games, women’s football and any number of overseas cup tournaments. You could, with extensive searching, generally find a live score update on anything, but it might be with some considerable effort and you do not want to waste time on anything that requires too much effort.

Any time you can allocate to ASP, other than actually trading games, should be spent on learning the system. And of course, you will carry out a considerable amount of “paper” trading before committing any real money. And please do paper trade, don’t skip running it on paper only at first.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Useful tip: Check flashscore.com first and, if it isn’t listed there, don’t bother with that game, there are always plenty of others to choose from. Now let us move on to the second “odds based” filter that we look for after the match odds filter. For this we go to the over/under 2.5 goals market and to get there we click a game from our overall in-play match list and then click the over/under 2.5 goals link on the left hand side of the page.

Clicking that link takes us here:

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This filter tells us much about the probability of more than 2 goals. As I mentioned, the perfect game for us is a half time result of 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 because it makes both of your bets EASY winners (as you will see). A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

And, generally, this means that we want to see low odds for under 2.5 goals indicating that the game wouldn’t even come close to making your pulse race and that is important – we all want calm simplicity without any stress, if possible.

A strong indication of under 2.5 goals leads us to believe that only a few goals will be likely and that is good. What we want to see is the under 2.5 goals section having odds of under 2 (or evens) to back.

Our example (here it is again below) certainly indicates that under 2.5 goals is not favourite in this game so it doesn’t tick that box for us and should be avoided.

So, to recap so far, we need a match favourite that has match odds of bigger than or equal to 1.7 and then we need to see a clear indication that the market views the likelihood of there being less than 2.5 goals as favourite over more than 2.5 goals and we definitely want to see the odds on under 2.5 goals at less than evens (less than 2). Under 2.5 goals in reality, of course, means a game ending with 2 goals or fewer. 31

Now here’s one that does qualify for the under 2.5 goals filter:

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

You can clearly see that under 2.5 goals is the red hot favourite and well under evens and that is good for us. But there is another odds based filter that we also check first before deciding to trade the game. And that is the over/under 3.5 goals market. Again we want to see the under 3.5 goals as favourite and we want to see it as the very hot favourite.

This one certainly qualifies on that count. You can see the odds here for under 3.5 goals are 1.15. Now they do not need to be that low but I do like to see odds here of 1.35 or lower and the lower the better.

Seeing odds on under 3.5 goals at less than 1.35 very firmly indicates that this game should not result in 4 goals scored and, as you will see as we move on to the system itself, we absolutely do not want to be on a game where one of the teams score 4 goals or more on their own. So, naturally, a strong indicator that the game in total is likely to produce 3 goals or less is good for us.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Now, you will rarely see over 3.5 goals (as opposed to under 3.5 goals) viewed as the favourite of the two or more likely outcome of the two (although there are occasionally such games) but what we want to see here is under 3.5 goals being not just favourite, but absolute, red hot, bolted on favourite so in the example above you’d have to say this is perfect.

Useful tip:

If you were to make it a rule that you need odds below 1.30 here (they are very common) then it will stop you going on games where the odds are just over the filter threshold (like 1.37 or 1.36).

Our next filter, and our last instant view filter, is to do with volume of money in the market, specifically, how much has been matched on bets within the correct score market. If you are looking at this early, well before the game, do allow for the fact that the market has not properly formed and double check it closer to the kick-off. However, the bigger games will have well-formed correct score markets well in advance.

We want to know that we can not only get our bets matched at the outset but also that we stand a very good chance of getting bets matched later on during the game itself. Our best indication of this comes from liquidity – simply put – how much money has already been bet in this market. 33

This directly tells us that there is good interest in the game and therefore a very good chance of people being around watching this betting market and willing to bet later. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Sadly, the game I have highlighted up to now has failed on this next filter. With only 20 minutes to go before the game kicks off, it is showing only £646 matched on the correct score market. We need this to show at least £2,000 just before kick-off for it to be a safe trading game.

Now, with experience behind you, a less than £2,000 matched game can be traded. I would maybe trade this game personally but it should be avoided by someone new to trading in this way and let me just break down why so that it is extremely clear to you.

How much has been matched in total in the correct score market is important because it can solve a potential problem that might otherwise occur later. At close to kick off we need to see at least £2,000 matched or we risk in-play liquidity problems. What can sometimes happen in a game that isn’t well supported is that when you want to make an in-play bet later, it simply isn’t matched (taken) because there simply is no interest in the game. Now, once we’ve satisfied the match odds, total goals market odds and liquidity requirement there are other factors that we look at: A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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We want to see that the 0-0 price is not too high or too low because we are going to look to lay 0-0 early in-play. This (lay) is our Period 3 bet. If it is 17 or 18 or bigger to lay pre-kick off then there has to be some considerable movement (downwards) to get to a price that is comfortable to lay in-play. For me, that price is 10 (occasionally 11) and I would normally look to split my 0-0 lay stake into 2 or more parts and do some at that maximum 10 or 11 level and the balance at 8, 7 or even lower if it drops to that level. That said, I would not discount anything up to odds of 16 or even 17. If the 0-0 odds are higher than 16 or 17 that, in itself, does not even disqualify the game and I would still leave an in-play request waiting at 10 or 11 for the first part of my 0-0 lay stake but, in reality, our advice is to never actually lay 0-0 at higher than 11 (maybe 12) and to get a lay at odds of 11 in-play, you do not want to be waiting too long for the odds to fall to that level. They will fall quickly from around 15 to 10 in the absence of an early goal. But you want to be laying by 15 minutes in at the latest ideally.

It is also recommended that you discard games where the 0-0 odds are lower than 7 pre-kick off because this indicates a higher probability of a 0-0 result (according to the market) in this game than is comfortable.

We want to be out of our games (and in profit) wherever possible by half time and we do not want a 0-0 score-line at half time if at all possible. ASP R

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Naturally, it must be said that the higher the market odds on a 0-0 result are, the higher the probability of goals in the game and we do want goals of course but we don’t want too many. Regardless of the 0-0 price at kick off, always put in a request to lay at lower than those 0-0 starting odds.

The example above is ideal. So, if this was a game for me, I would ask for a lay at around 8 and then at 7 or 6. There is no firm rule on this just ask for a lay below the starting odds. If I were starting out with a relatively small bank, I would probably put a £1 lay request in at just below the starting odds and then leave a few more £1 lay requests waiting at lower and lower odds.

Betfair have a minimum stake of £2 so, to see how you can get under that staking level, watch my video on Profit Magnets. You have to be a member of that site to watch it but it is absolutely free to join the site with absolutely no catches. 36

There is also a time factor. Most first half goals occur between 15 and 40 minutes. You want to be looking to get your first lay on at or just before 15 minutes even if the odds haven’t already dropped to your target level. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If the odds look high still, then make the lay stake low then ask for a bit more at a lower price after that. A good tip here is to think of your 0-0 laying period as being between 10 minutes and 30 minutes and after that you would move into the backing period (all will be clear as you read on).

Now we look at the odds for ANY OTHER WIN (be that home or away) and the odds here, ideally, need to be between 10 and 18 to lay, although if everything else stacks up, you can take a lower price.

This lay is our Period 2 bet and is always made pre-kick off unless you are a more confident trader with a little more experience. Sometimes, if I come to a game late and the price is OK, I might lay ANY OTHER WIN after kick-off but normally, even then, it would be early in the match.

I will sometimes take on games with a much lower lay price on ANY OTHER WIN if I feel there are good reasons. There is an example of this a little later on based on the older Betfair system where ANY OTHER HOME WIN, AWAY WIN and ANY OTHER DRAW did not exist. Instead there was one simple betting category called ANY UNQUOTED. Now, with the new system, there is so much more of an advantage.

Because there are games now where you might be able to lay ANY OTHER HOME WIN and ANY OTHER AWAY WIN and possibly even ANY OTHER DRAW. Remember what I said about going for those smaller than £2 stakes – why not a £1 on the bigger 2 of the 3 of those ANY OTHER sections of the market and a little more on the favourite of these.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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As a general rule it is the favourite of these ANY OTHER categories that becomes our main target. This will always be the team (home or away) with the smallest match odds. If there is no clear favourite to win the game and the odds are not too high, you can spread your lay between both home and away, but keep the stakes really small. ASP Remember, this is all start out advice. ASP can be used on any game pretty much IF you have the experience to trade any situation.

Useful tip:

If you want to lay at higher than 18 on ANY OTHER (after all, the higher the odds here, the less likely the market perceives the probability of an ANY OTHER result) do so but perhaps using a smaller stake than what would be your “normal” stake. The same applies with 0-0 lays. The key is always to keep your liabilities down to a level that would not upset you if you were to lose this amount. Even a £2 lay on ANY OTHER when coupled with a 0-0 lay for £2.50 or £3 can still, on occasions, make you the £4 average profit that Geoff consistently experienced.

Even if you just add a £1 lay to the two other ANY OTHER categories, you suddenly have £6.50 in the pot. A quick explanation as to why £6.50 may be required here.

Any LAY bet you make, if it wins, returns the stake. Thus £6.50 of lay stakes equals a return of £6.50 if your lays win. There is also a small commission to come off of this but ignore that for now.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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ANY OTHER in the correct score market very simply refers to any specific score-line that doesn’t have its own row and heading in the correct score market menu. It actually refers to any result that has a 4 or higher number in the score-line for one team or for both teams in the case of ANY OTHER DRAW.

Let us take a look at some correct score markets with a view to further explaining the two lays we make to set the game up. I’ve removed the middle out of these images so you can see both top and bottom.ASP ASP

With this first one (above) we see that the ANY OTHER odds are quite high but maybe it would be worth a £1 lay?

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With this second one (above) we see that perhaps ANY OTHER odds are maybe a little low, certainly for anyone totally new to trading. Remember that, the lower the odds, the more likely the outcome is perceived to be. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

With experience though you will soon find out that the ANY OTHER section is often completely based on who the probable winner is going to be rather than really how many goals they will win by, but we have to start you off somewhere.

The final one (above) is pretty near spot on. With 0-0 at 15 and ANY OTHER HOME WIN at 9.2. Although you might not want to rush into laying 0-0 but, rather, lay it as it comes down in small chunks. The video I pointed out to you at Profit Magnets earlier deals with £1 stakes but you can even go lower with (say) 50p stakes if you wish.

Here, in this image, we see that: 1) We already have £8,071 in matched bets on this market, so that’s good. 2) A 0-0 price of 15 right now to back, so that’s OK. 3) ANY OTHER HOME WIN is being offered right now at a lay price of 9.2 and that works well. It must be said that you wouldn’t necessarily take that price. The price to back AOHW is 8.8, a clear 4 ticks lower, so there is every reason to think that you might get a lay of 9 taken and so would be wise to try to get that first before kick-off, or even ask for the 8.8 odds first. ASP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Remember, you can always take the 9.2 if you have to later just before kick-off. At this stage we are simply discussing filters so don’t worry if some of this seems confusing. It will all become clear as we progress.

Whichever game you focus on, of course, you still need to re-check the other filters. So here is another quick summary of that process: 1) We must have a game that we will be able to bet upon “in-play”. 2) We want a favourite with odds of or bigger than 1.7 in the match odds market.

3) We want to see under 2.5 goals odds of below 2 (evens) to back.

4) We want to see under 3.5 goals odds of or below 1.35 to back.

5) We want to see matched bets in the correct score market, before the game commences, of at least £2,000.

6) We want to see 0-0 odds that do not exceed 15 (ideally) to lay in the correct score market and that are no lower than 7. 7) We want to see ANY OTHER odds to lay that are (ideally) between 9 and 18 in the correct score market. It is possible to go higher here but restrict your total liability to a sum that (in the worst scenario) you would be ok about losing. It is also Ok to go lower if everything else stacks up. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Regarding liabilities; a £3.20 lay at odds of 12 creates a potential liability of £35.20. ASP If you wanted to make £35 your absolute maximum liability then odds of 20 would be fine providing you restricted your stake to £1.84. Yes, this is below the Betfair maximum but the Profit Magnets video shows you how to get around that.

Ultimately, what we are trying to do here with our strategy is attempt to make money by betting that each selected game will:

a) Not finish goal-less (using a 0-0 lay). b) Not end with our side scoring 4 or more goals (our side being the one we layed on ANY OTHER WIN).

Important Statistics.

Let us just break off from developing the system detail for a while now and look at some statistics gathered from soccerstats.com. These can be quite revealing if we want to take a close look at what actually happens and demonstrate why this simplistic but brilliant system works.

What is the actual experience of results? If we look at the UK Premier League first (of course), over the two full seasons of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 we see that only 8.42% of all matches in that league finished 0-0 in the 2009/2010 season and 6.58% in the 2010/2011 season. 7.5% in total over the 760 games. SPP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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If we analyse results that qualify as an ANY OTHER result on Betfair.com (any game where at least one team scored 4 or more goals) we see that out of a total of 760 games 673 results fell outside of the ANY OTHER bet and 87 were covered by ANY OTHER. This means that only 11.45% of all of these games produced a score-line of 4 or more goals to one (or both) team(s).

On the face of it that seems like quite a large percentage of the results but, and this is critical, those statistics include every single game played, hot favourites and all, and we are removing any game (according to our filters) where one team is clearly a very strong favourite. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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In addition any game where the perception of potentially many goals is indicated through the over/under markets is also being removed. Also (as you will see) we are coming out of games during the match once we can secure a profit and with many of those 11.45% of games we would have locked our profit in LONG BEFORE the end result.

In addition, we are disposing of games where 0-0 seems highly likely (very low odds). The principle point here is that even taking ALL games into account, this still leaves a highly favourable probability towards an end result not being 4 goals or more to one team (and we can be out of the game early in a 4 plus goals to one team situation anyway so reducing our liabilities). Let me just dwell a moment on this logically.

Would it be fair to say that very few games are going to produce 4 goals to one team within the first half? Or indeed, would it be fair to say that very few games would produce even 3 goals to one team in the first half? After all, you have just seen the TOTAL number of games producing 4 or more goals to one side in the full 90 minutes over the last two seasons of the UK Premier League and that was only 87 games out of 760.

Now let us be clear, you will find yourself at times on such games. This is because football is very unpredictable and some teams just have - let us call it WEIRD - days but the principle starting point here is that we attempt to avoid as many of those games as we can,. 44

FACT:

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Our experience of monitoring well over 2500 games in 16 months prior to the first release of ASP told us that very few games indeed have 3 goals by half time to one team, let alone 4 and we can almost always get out at some point with a small profit on the games that are 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 at half time. And we can ALWAYS get out with a good profit on 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 games at half time, and there are a lot of those. ASP Let me really play devil’s advocate here and combine those games that ended within the realm of the ANY OTHER result with those that ended 0-0 (even though it is impossible to lose on both of those results in one game of course).

Out of the total 760 games in the UK Premier League over the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 seasons 146 ended in a score-line that we do not want. That is 19.2% of all of those games.

If we took no further action in a game whatsoever beyond our initial lays, the nature and total of the liabilities created by our lays (specifically using the figures that Geoff always uses) mean that we could lose no more than 5 times the maximum amount we can win and, of course, we would always win the maximum amount on those games that did not end 0-0 or with an ANY OTHER result.

Let me also be totally clear about why I am quoting statistics from the UK Premier League over the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 seasons. It is simply because these were the last full statistics available to me before I launched ASP for the first time and the statistics don’t really change. Oh, and remember we might not have layed the team that scored 4 goals! A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Let’s now look at the English Championship (League 2). ASP

552 games

552 games

If we repeat our Premier League exercise we see that out of 1104 games in total, 108 would fall into the ANY OTHER box. This equates to only 9.8% of the total within the Championship. 7% ended 0-0.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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We could continue analysing this data forever but we will leave that to you after we just also quickly look at a couple of other big leagues. How about the senior league in Spain:

380 games

380 games

ANY OTHER percentage of the total is 92 out of 760 so that equates to 12.10%. 0-0 results accounted for 58 games which is 7.63%.

Let us also look at the Italian premier league. ASPSP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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380 games

380 games

For Italy the situation is that we have 62 from a total of 760 games (so a tiny little 8.16% of all games) ending inside the ANY OTHER parameters. Italy seems like a really good bet considering this is ALL games including those that would have fallen out owing to our filters. 0-0 games were 65 (8.55%). ASP

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Simply because I have always known it to be a low goal scoring region for football, let us also have a quick look at Greece.

240 games

240 games

28 games from 480, just 5.83% of Greek Premier League games ended in the ANY OTHER box (and you thought Italy was a good bet!). 41 games ended in a 0-0 score-line, just 8.5%.

That 0-0 statistic in Greece surprised me and should surprise you. It tells me that a low incidence of 4 or more goals to one side does not create a high incidence of 0-0. That must be highly encouraging. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I assumed, quite naturally, that a low ANY OTHER experience would result in a high 0-0 experience but the reality is the complete opposite. They are not much higher than the 7.5% UK Premier experience.

With the UK Premier stats we saw that 0-0 occurred 57 times out of 760. That is some 7.5% of the time. This means that 92.5% of games finished with at least one goal having been scored. Only 11.45% of all games covered by these stats, remember, have one team scoring 4 goals or more.

Given our filters where we can disqualify the games where there is an overwhelming favourite and a high probability of over 2.5 goals we can dramatically increase our chances of finding games that end with a scoreline that we seek and that score-line is, in its simplest terms, anything other than 0-0 that is not covered by ANY OTHER in the correct score market.

Caution: You will not always be able to find these stats for the more obscure leagues so you might take the view, as a result, that the more obscure should be avoided but there is always a web site devoted to even the most obscure league where you can number crunch for yourself. We would love to hear about any interesting statistics you come across.

By choosing fairly equally matched teams, spending a little time, as above, looking at the statistics between various leagues and using a few other analytical tools, we can show you a path to Assured Soccer Profits with a very small downside risk. The statistics used here have come from soccerstats.com a site I highly recommend you frequent if you want to check out some statistics of your own. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I would also suggest you spend some time looking at soccerbot.com. They have an excellent, at a glance, league grid; here are the UK Premiership results. (Apologies if the detail is a little hard to see clearly).

If we just take a snapshot of this grid above we see Arsenal had been involved in 4 games during this season that would have resulted in us possibly taking an ANY OTHER loss and in all 4 they would have been firm (sub 1.7) favourites, believe me, so we would not have been on those games.

We see Chelsea involved in 5 such games and, again, it has to be said for certain they would have been firm (sub 1.7) favourites. Manchester United another 5 such games and Manchester City another 4 such games where they would have likely been absolute clear favourites. ASP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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That is 18 of the total 36 games in the season illustrated that ended as an ANY OTHER result. That leaves only 18 from 360 that could have possibly hurt us, or 5%. And we may not have layed that team remember.

Do you begin to see how safe this is?

When carrying out this type of analysis, you can always ignore 0-0. As you will see, when you lose on 0-0 it is going to be very small amounts as we always get out of this potential result at half time or very shortly before half time or we massively reduce the liability. If you plan to get out with 5 minutes to go to half time you more often than not come out without leaving a 0-0 liability at all but there are good reasons to leave a small liability and keep some profit in the other scores if possible.

Also, by betting on in-play games only, if a game proves to be unpredictable, we can choose to take evasive action and get out at any time with a reduced loss, a small loss, break even or even with a small profit on games that are not going the way we’d like. This makes the 4 periods of our strategy mentioned earlier seem, we hope, a little clearer. Given what we have here, it is my absolute belief that this soccer strategy will rapidly become the number 1 system you use but please, don’t go crazy with it. Caution, always, must still be applied and it is worth remembering that ANY team, regardless of league, country, position and status and the view gained from applying the filters, can surprise us.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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You must also look out for extreme circumstances that can impact upon a soccer match and I would recommend that time spent watching for those extremes is time well spent. For example, a game played in extreme weather conditions. Especially if one team may be used to that weather and the other is not. You can refuse to bet on any problematic game. ASP You are going to encounter games like this and you have to accept it as part of the process that does lead you to Assured Soccer Profits.

You will not make a profit on every game and you will have to accept that you gain this profit over time by being consistent with your approach, as Geoff’s results spreadsheet very adequately shows, and watch for the extreme all of the time so you can avoid it.

As another example, beware the red card. One sending off in a game often results in the penalised team bolting down the hatches and defending like Trojans. Two red cards to the same team in a game, however, are almost certainly going to make it hard for them to keep out goals. This is especially true where those cards have come early on. It may be prudent to seek early exit from these games if it can be done even if that requires you making a little loss on that game.

It is unlikely that the absence of a key player will make the difference between 1 goal and 4 goals but the absence of a few key players could. Just be aware of what is happening in a game wherever possible. Fortunately flashscore.com also warns us when a red card is given with a loud boo! Obviously you need to have your speakers turned up!

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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It’s time to quickly recap and then expand with a real match example. Quick Summary. 1. Is there an over-whelming match favourite? Yes – then ignore that game. 2. What are the odds on Under 2.5 goals? 3. What are the odds on the Under 3.5 goals? 4. What are the odds on 0-0 in the Correct Score Market? 5. What are the odds on ANY OTHER WIN (favourite team) in the Correct Score Market? 6. How much liquidity is there in the Correct Score Market?

Placement Of The Bets, The Game And The Bets In Action.

From here on in, I will regularly refer to ANY OTHER as A.U. For ease, this always relates now to ANY OTHER WIN (home or away depending on who the favourite was) which, until December 2014 was referred to as ANY UNQUOTED in the correct score market. With other exchanges such as Betdaq, as of the end of February 2015, it still is referred to as ANY UNQUOTED.

When you see references to ANY UNQUOTED or A.U. in the publication, I haven’t gone mad. It is just that the original examples used were captured when ANY UNQUOTED was what ANY OTHER WIN is now. Although mostly re-written in 2015, large parts of the first draft are still here and some of that was written as early as 2011.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Just be aware that examples that follow from this point dealing with ANY UNQUOTED would now be ANY OTHER WIN and you will be fine. Just replace ANY UNQUOTED (AU) with ANY OTHER WIN when looking at any example that uses the older version.

We would now always use ANY OTHER WIN, favourite side, almost exclusively, But, as mentioned earlier, perhaps sometimes with a little on the ANY OTHER WIN non-favourite side and maybe even a few pennies on ANY OTHER DRAW for extra good measure. Only one of the three ANY OTHER outcomes could ever happen after all.

You should remain as cautious as you can until you are trading from pure profits. Having determined which match or matches qualify at this early stage (remembering that, with experience, you can take on just about anything) it is then time to place the bets. To be more accurate, it is time to place the first of the bets (which I’ve done in the next image below) and then prepare to place the 2nd bet.

The first bet, of course, is a LAY bet on the ANY OTHER market and the 2nd is on the 0-0 market. In this example I have decided to do two straight 0-0 lays, one for £4 at odds of 10 and one for £3.35 at odds of 8. You can choose the breakdown and amounts for yourself of course but I rarely do a single, one-off 0-0 lay. 55

This image shows you the first bet (AU bet) taken at 11.17 (some at 11.5 and some at 11) and the broken down 0-0 bets waiting. The match had just now kicked off and, at kick off, 0-0 stood at 14 to lay. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, I wanted odds of 10 for my first 0-0 lay. This is a Belgium v Portugal under 19’s International Competition game, a game that you might consider to be a little risky for a complete novice because of the lack of available form data (we’ll get to form data later) between the two teams but I thought it had potential.

At 25 minutes, just before the second part of my 0-0 lay was taken, Belgium scored a goal and so I only got a 0-0 lay of £4 on this match. But you will see that this is, however, plenty.

The good news was of course that the 0-0 liability showing below here of £32.80 had now gone and I didn’t need to think about it again as the game could not now end 0-0.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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My only possible liability moving on was the A.U. liability showing here (next image) of £28.55.

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The current score was 1-0 and if it had stayed at that score I would win £6.85 if I took no further action. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If I wanted to go for an ultra-cautious approach I could have backed out of the AU liability right then (33 minutes in) for £1.97 (that is £28.55 divided by 14.5), leaving around £4.88 profit (£6.85 - £1.97) on any score that isn’t A.U. However, I waited for half time. At half time I can always decide on the action to take (if any) then. In almost all cases I would secure the liability to make sure nothing can hurt me but there is an argument to suggest that you could let it run on to the end of the game for maximum profit.

You can decide to do so if you wish to take a little extra risk. The risk then was Belgium scoring 3 more goals in the second half or Portugal suddenly scoring 4. That isn’t going to happen in very many games to be fair but it could happen. And now, only one of those scoring 4 could hurt us whereas back then it was either of them.

I believe that you should take the absolute no pain route wherever possible. Making certain there is no loss on any outcome until you are so comfortable with the strategy that you don’t even need to think about it. Even though I didn’t get the extra £3.35 lay bet on 0-0 it is always worth breaking down the placement of the 0-0 bet in my opinion. The reduced odds achieved significantly reduce the liability and often a goal is scored after the entire bet is matched. But you could decide that you only ever want to make the first part of the 0-0 bet and, in so doing, keep 0-0 liabilities as low as possible also. That is a perfectly good strategy.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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It was half time in this old game and still 1-0 and so I decided to take a reasonable profit from the game and move on.

I invested £1.32 on A.U. (by backing A.U.) at odds of 25. In the unlikely event that someone did score 4 goals, I would get a consolation prize of £2.98 otherwise I would get £5.59. Please bear in mind here that:

a) This is a very common outcome. b) My total lay stake in the end was only £7.20. c) My biggest ever exposure was a £32.80 liability on 0-0 IF and 59

ONLY IF I took no further action and the game ended after 90 minutes with a 0-0 score-line and I am never going to take no action!

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

d) The ANY UNQUOTED section is now ANY OTHER WIN (HOME/AWAY/DRAW).

Can you see where the £4 to £5 average profit per game comes from? This £5.59 has been achieved with stakes of just £7.20!

With The Bulk Of Our Matches.

The first goal is very often scored within 35 to 40 minutes and our full lay bet on 0-0, more often than not, matched by then, is a winner. Remember that thanks to the fact that we also put a lay bet on ANY OTHER we are often looking at a winning game where we can utilise our full lay stake of around £10.50 (reduced by commission of approximately 5% of course) and assuming that our staking levels are that £10.50 favoured by Geoff.

After the first goal the odds on A.U. will inevitably drop perhaps down to as little as 5 or 6 or so if it is early enough in the game, but in the absence of a quick additional goal, those odds will quickly climb out again as you saw with the Belgium v Portugal under 19 game.

Half time came with the score 1-0 and the A.U. odds (the only odds we would now be concerned with) were about 20 (but they are frequently higher at this point). If I want to I can take the ultra-cautious approach now and back A.U. using a portion of my profit. But statistics tell me that I am in an exceedingly good position.

If I prefer I could take the full £10 (plus) profit from this match.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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At the very least, I could wait until the ANY OTHER price has gone out to 30 plus and then back it for caution with a very small part of my stake.

I backed at 25 in the example above because I generally take the view that early GUARANTEED profit is the best kind of profit. You should absolutely follow suit in the early days, but feel free to go for a little more profit later on when you are staking all your games out of pure profit and willing to take a few more chances.

This is another real game example using a match between Almeria and Santander on 3rd March 2011. The cheer had gone up on flashscore.com and Santander had scored making it 0-1 and (co-incidentally) I had just spotted that Santander had also been awarded a red card, so getting out made sense and this proved to be a good educational opportunity.

Now at 37 minutes in I certainly wouldn’t normally worry too much about having to try to “green up” right now; meaning make every outcome a profit or, at least, a no loss outcome.

But given the red card it is conceivable that you might do just that in this situation just in case Santander collapsed and the red carded player was a key defender.

Once the market settled down after suspension, this was the situation: A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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As you can see, getting out of the £69 liability on A.U. right then would be possible for only £2.47 (£69 divided by 28) but I decided to get out in stages and I felt sure I could go for a near maximum profit here as I was always confident that this game would not be peppered with goals. Besides it then served as another quick example of using sub £2 stakes.

I started by placing a bet at odds that cannot possibly be achieved right at that exact time for the normal £2. I had asked for odds of 150. This is because I want to be certain that the £2 isn’t wasted because the odds requested are suddenly available while I am still placing the bet. The idea is NOT to get matched for the £2 stake.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I calculated that it would cost me around 46 pence to place the bet I actually wanted to place so I now increase that £2 bet waiting to £2.46.

This is how Betfair.com presented the alteration back then, nothing has really changed as you will see from the Profit Magnets video today. ASP

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I now had my original £2 bet and my new 46 pence bet separated and could now just simply delete the original £2 bet by clicking the little white on red X leaving just the 46 pence bet in place. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

This bet wasn’t taken in the end (but almost was) as, just before the 150 odds became available, there was an equalizer and the market suspended again. That 1-1 score-line remained and the full profit of £10.46 was taken. Nevertheless, you now have another break down on how to get the sub £2 bet on to go along with the video on Profit Magnets.

I could have just let the 46p bet go on at current odds of course after the equaliser but I decided not to bother in the end. Please remember that I could have spent a little more than 46 pence at any time earlier in the game to clear that £69 liability. I do not recommend you wait like this until you are playing from accumulated profits.

When Things Go Wrong (AND THEY WILL).

The fact is some games WILL go wrong. Just both ACCEPT that and EXPECT that before you start using this system.

It is quite possible that the very first game you choose may turn out to be a loser. The first 3 games you try might all be losers. There is no logic in football and you should be aware that, whilst statistical information is a great guide to probability, it is a snap shot only of what happens overall, over time. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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It is critical that you work from a betting bank tied to liabilities and I suggest that you do not exceed 10% of your allocated bank as an absolute maximum liability on one game if at all possible.

You can be a little flexible here if you are not planning on trading more than one game at the same time. Perhaps, by going one game at a time, you can start with a 15% maximum liability but I recommend 10%. So, if your bank is £300 try to keep your biggest lay liability at £30 or, at worst, £45 if you follow 15% as a maximum liability.

I have personally never had more than two losing games in a row that I would call “cataclysmic” (losing the maximum in game liability and wiping my full 10%). And I take more risks than most ever would because I know the system so well. I have heard from customers that managed 3 games in a row that lost but, again, I am not aware of any that did that and lost the maximum liability in all of those games. That said there will be some who simply gambled, waited and hoped. You need to think, always, in terms of 100’s of games and the long term profit. Don’t try to make hundreds per week; you will get it wrong if you chase it too hard!

And generally, the only way, barring exceptional circumstances (Internet goes down on you for example), to lose without reducing your liability in game at all is to take NO ACTION.

If you bet this strategy over 100 games there is a certainty of profit if you are doing it right and it is EASY profit using one betting market. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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If you’ve experienced the frustration of having bets refused by bookies because you win you will know how valuable it is to be able to use one simple market in one place to make all of your profit without ever being barred or restricted.

Nevertheless, be aware that you could end up with a loss in theory over 5 or even 10 games in short order although this is highly unlikely if you follow the rules as losses should always be pretty small.

If this should happen, what you must never do is start to think that you are somehow cursed with extra-ordinary bad luck and, whatever you do, you seem to lose. I know people with this attitude and I am convinced that they EXPECT this to happen and so it does happen.

Anyone in the least bit familiar with the theory of the Law of Attraction will know that some serious people believe that we get what we attract with our thoughts so beware even if you think all of what I’ve just said is nonsense. I always EXPECT to win and I generally do win, but hey, not all of the time! ASP So, What Of An Early Goal?

Having made your ANY OTHER lay, you now want to lay 0-0. You put in a request for a bet at lower odds than those currently showing for 0-0. A very early goal can sometimes be scored before you have your lay 0-0 bet accepted and it would appear now that you have missed your chance. Don’t panic!

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Remember you are still in a winning position at this stage because of your ANY OTHER lay and the only thing is that now the profit pot is not as big as it could have been.

You could just leave it there and wait for good enough odds to back ANY OTHER and leave the game with perhaps a very small profit. Or your next move could be to lay the present score in the same way you were going to lay the 0-0 score-line. The odds on offer will, in all probability, be better than those that were on offer previously on the 0-0 score-line or at least around the same. If they are larger, you simply don’t lay them. Remember, you need do nothing here at all, after a goal, if that makes you feel more comfortable. If it is 1-0 or 0-1 and you don’t have a 0-0 lay and you still want to add to your potential profit pot, then simply allow the same time you would have allowed with 0-0 and lay 1-0/0-1 for a small amount and perhaps again in small chunks as the odds reduce.

If you take a look at the earlier tables on the score-line experience from the major football leagues, you will see that games ending as 1-0 or 0-1 scores at full time are almost as uncommon as 0-0. So, with a very early goal, consider laying the current score but don’t go mad (maybe just £2 or even £1), just lay to a point where the liability you create on that scoreline is one that you could cope with losing if the game stayed at that score to the very end. 67

Mostly, another goal will be scored and you’re back in business. 3 Quick Goals For One Team. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

A team scoring 3 goals in quick succession, if they are the team we layed with our ANY OTHER bet will threaten our ANY OTHER bet liability where we are exposed to our largest potential loss. Obviously, when the goals are scored is of vital importance.

The biggest thing to remember is this; do not panic! There are still many things that could happen, not least of which is that the horrifying 4 th goal may never come!

If there are 3 quick goals in succession to one team at an early stage in the game there is little we can do other than roll up our sleeves and attack our potential liability in stages. Start by laying the 3 goal current score-line. In doing this you reduce the ANY OTHER exposure and you create a new potential loss in the current score-line.

Let us say that the score is 3-0 and the odds (after the market re-settles) on 3-0 are 7. Let us say that we have a £35 ANY OTHER liability and our potential profit pot (the lay stakes made so far) is only £3.

If we lay 3-0 for £5 at 7 we create a liability of £27 on the current score.

If decimal odds are relatively new to you, just remember, always remove 1 from the odds, thus 7 becomes 6 for your calculations. So the calculation here is £5 x 6 = £30 – £3 = £27. Remember the £3 of pre-existing potential profit on 3-0. We reduce the ANY OTHER liability to £30. And we have just added £5 to all other score pots. This is important. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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You can alter these figures to suit where you feel more comfortable, maybe lay for £6 or £4 and so on. Now the game could end at the current score, on our exposed ANY OTHER score but maybe even at 3-1 or 3-2 or 3-3.

If any of those last 3 results proved to be the end result and we did no more, we would now win £8 because we added the £5 to all other scorelines. And this does happen. Moreover we can now continue to roll over our liabilities if the score changes again and if we choose to. ASP Let’s say it goes from 3-0 to 3-1. Our 3-0, £27 liability has gone now, this result cannot happen. We now have an £8 pot on 3-1. We lay 3-1 (let’s say the odds are 5) for £8. We create a £24 liability on 3-1. Here’s how: We have £8 there to start, we have made a lay at odds of 5 for £8 so the calculation is £8 x 4 = £32 - £8 = £24. We reduce the liability on ANY OTHER now to £22 by doing this. We have improved our position by at least £3 in the worst scenario by now incurring a £24 loss if the score stays the same instead of a £27 loss AND our potential profit on 3-2 or 33 has become £16. And then the score goes to 3-2. What could we do? You’ve guessed it, we could lay 3-2. Assume the odds are 4. We lay for £9 and we create a liability of £11 on 3-2. We reduce the ANY OTHER liability to £15 and our position now is drastically improved all around and the game could still end at 3-3 giving us a profit of £25.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Take a little time out and think about these numbers and play with them until you are comfortable with the concept. Remember that as you LAY one result you improve the profit by the lay amount on the other possible results.

Also remember, you could take the view at 3-0 that it absolutely will go to 4-0 or more and instead of just laying 3-0 for £5, you could lay it for a bigger stake and therefore reduce the ANY OTHER liability further.

2 Goals To One Team Early On And More Get Out Of Jail Information.

In fact, it must be said that 2-0 to any team early on in the game will depress the ANY OTHER price dramatically if the goals come to the team that you layed ANY OTHER for. If they come for the other team of course, you would be very happy indeed as there is now a much smaller chance of that ANY OTHER lay causing you a problem. Assuming the two goals do come for the team you’d prefer they didn’t come for, the odds could drop down to the 4’s and 5’s (even lower) and perhaps stay there for some considerable time (maybe even to 60 or 70 minutes) and, as a result, make it unlikely that you can comfortably back out of your ANY OTHER liability and get into profit everywhere.

The secret with 2-0 is to most definitely not panic and be prepared to wait into the 2nd half. If the third goal goes in before the situation has improved, see the situation above relating to 3 goals.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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The good news is that, given our filters, this situation is not going to be so common and many more games will give you every chance to settle everything in profit at half time. When 2-0 happens now it is often the case that it is not to the team we have layed and this is where the new ANY OTHER WIN (home or away) system gives us an advantage that we never used to have with the old ANY UNQUOTED system.

Besides, again, remember that 4-0 does not always, or even frequently, become the outcome after two quick goals, or 4-1 or 4 anything. Teams often ease off when they feel in control early and protect the lead.

These quick 2-0 games can often become highly profitable because you waited and the next goal is a response from the losing team taking the game to 2-1. After settling, the market can then change dramatically.

What is common, as we have seen on several occasions, is the third goal going in much later in the game with only a few minutes (or certainly less than 15 or 20 minutes) to go. You may have an opportunity prior to this 3rd goal of backing ANY OTHER and going to profit everywhere or, if you feel more at ease in doing this, perhaps reduce the ANY OTHER liability you have and use all of your current potential profit to do so.

For example, if there is £10 in the potential profit pot, use this £10 to back ANY OTHER, so reducing the liability and leave all other outcomes at £0 or maybe just leave them at a £1 in profit. Now, the odds at a later stage of a game, to lay 2-0 or 3-0 could well be down to as little as 1.2 or even 1.1 depending on exactly when this is.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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And, if you were concerned about the impending danger of the game going to 4-0 because of a final, desperate push, you would be able to dramatically reduce the ANY OTHER liability by laying this current score.

Look out for this opportunity, especially on 3-0. I have had games standing at 3-0 where I had already previously made all outcomes green and I decided to lay 3-0 for £20 at really low odds, 1.15 or even 1.10 so reducing my 3-0 profit from around £8 to £5 but improving the result dramatically on all other possible scores.

I would normally only do this if I was monitoring the game closely and could see the side that were 3-0 up were putting massive pressure on the others. Sure enough, if the 4th goal comes in that situation you can make £25 plus easily after commission as a result.

So remember, a 4 goal score-line does not always mean a disaster. The real secret is to make it a policy to never have any huge liabilities to start with. I don’t really like starting with more than a £50 liability anywhere but I will go higher because of my betting bank size.

OK, I do also sometimes go higher when I think that further research alone merits it, hence the Almeria v Santander game.

I feel that a further explanation on this rolling on of liabilities will help so I will now relate it to that Almeria v Santander game directly. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Let us assume that it is 80 minutes into that game with its £69 ANY UNQUOTED (back then) liability and it is 3-1 to Almeria. Let us further assume that you can lay that current score for 1.50 (it could easily be lower odds).

To eradicate the £69 A.U. liability altogether would require that you set up a new liability of £24.04 on the current 3-1 score-line (£69 x .5 = £34.50 less the £10.46 existing 3-1 pot = £24.04). In so doing, the A.U. outcome would not have a liability (or a profit) as you just deleted that £69 potential loss.

But what if it then went to 3-2? You would have a £79.46 profit suddenly if that were to stay as the end result (and these things do happen). ASP Why? Because, in laying that £69 away from the 3-1 score, you add that £69 to every other possible score. You can then lay 3-2 immediately if you so wish to create a profit on A.U. as well without taking much off of the 3-2 profit pot. Maybe you didn’t want to eradicate the entire £69 A.U. liability and risk the £24.04 loss on the current score (you are in charge). So what about if you were to lay £50 at 1.50? Then you would have a £14.54 liability on the current score and a £19 liability on A.U. if the 4th goal comes and always remember you can vary this to suit how you feel. Do remember to now relate this to ANY OTHER WIN.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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There are many ways to organise where the liability (if you still have one) sits towards the end of the game and you should never forget you are in total control here. Just don’t ever panic. Think it through logically and make sure that what you are about to do NEVER makes the worst scenario for you cost even more than it would have done before you took this action.

Also, whilst there are only a few critical times where you need to be monitoring the market, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the back price for ANY OTHER WIN as the odds at or soon after half time can be high enough to allow us to eliminate that exposure at minimal cost.

The cost might only be £1 or even less or only a little more than £1 and most people like the feeling of being free of any risk of loss, I certainly do. It is unusual to have a 1-0 score-line at half time that doesn’t allow for this.

Also watch the surrounding score-lines to where the score currently ease. Cheap lays on 2-0 at 1-0 for example, can be made or 2-1 at 1-0. I’m sure you get the picture.

The most extreme situation you ever encounter, and this is quite rare, is a game with a 0-0 score-line at half time that turns into an absolute mare in the second half. This has become known as a perfect storm. It is when you leave the ANY OTHER liability as it was at half time on a particular game and then the unthinkable happens and the home team if you are on ANY OTHER HOME WIN or away team if you are on ANY OTHER AWAY WIN go on to score 4 goals in the second half. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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This has happened to me and, on occasions, it was when I had stopped watching the market and the game. Is this worth worrying about? Absolutely not, it is hardly a daily occurrence!

If the game gets to 3 goals really early you are always going to be a little nervous and the fact is that a £69 liability on ANY OTHER, such as I had in the Santander game, is probably a little ridiculous for someone starting out anyway. Typically, when new to this, you are going to be laying ANY OTHER for around £3 or perhaps £4. Even if you were laying at odds of 20, a £3 lay creates only a £57 liability.

When you get your 0-0 lay in (call that £4 also in total), you have then reduced that ANY OTHER liability to £53. In reality the average lay price on ANY OTHER is around 11 or 12 but even if it were 14 my normal ANY OTHER liability would be well under £69.

There is no doubt whatsoever that a staking level at around £10 to £10.50 on ANY OTHER and 0-0 combined to create a nice £10 potential profit pot to start the game off with is a good template to begin but you can make this smaller and should if you want to keep liabilities well pinned down. As stated before, you should paper trade for a while before risking anything!

Remember, you can increase profits by increasing the number of games. This is much safer than increasing the stakes on an individual game!

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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What Of 0-0?

Let us just now look at 0-0. It is interesting to note that, roughly speaking, the odds on 0-0 when that lay bet is placed early in the game are generally reduced by half by half time. So, for example, if you lay at 10, the odds will be around 5 at half time (maybe 4.5) and so on. It is at this half time point, or, preferably, just before at around 42 to 43 minutes, that, if the score is still 0-0, a decision should be made to start to reduce or eradicate the 0-0 liability.

You might argue that laying 0-0 is perhaps pointless if, a lot of the time, you are then going to back 0-0 to stop the eventuality of losing money on a 0-0 final result.

But, very frequently, there is a goal between your lay and the half time whistle and also, do not forget that any 0-0 lay adds to the pot you started with your ANY OTHER lay. This, as we have seen, is referred to as the “potential profit pot”. Just to add perspective to that. If you lay ANY OTHER for £4 you also have this money available to you when backing 0-0 and, in this way, if you take action at around the 40 minute plus mark (assuming the game is still 0-0), you can often clear any 0-0 liability whilst still leaving a £1 or £2 on all other outcomes (except of course the ANY OTHER outcome). 76

However, I am actually astounded at how often there will be a goal in the ten minute run up to the half time whistle (perhaps the lure of the half time orange has taken their focus away from the game?) A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

TIP:

Think of 10 to 30 minutes as being a 0-0 lay period and roughly 36 to 45 minutes as being a 0-0 back period. Never lay from 30 minutes on, never back before 36 minutes. Be guided by your feeling as to how the game pans out. The reason why people panic is that they see the 0-0 odds starting to drop rapidly at 30 minutes and onwards.

And in almost every case, this panic is enhanced because they layed at odds that were too high overall and/or didn’t break the lay down into small bites. Seriously, please, watch the video at Profit Magnets so that you can get into the habit of very small lays at reducing odds.

Also you can improve your chances of getting this right even more by investing in a very smart tool that will seriously help.

There is a fabulous tool (piece of software) you can acquire in exchange for a reasonable monthly subscription payment that will show where the action is on any Betfair covered in-play football game. You can check that out by clicking the link below:

FOOTBALL SCANNER

Why is that useful? Well, because if you can see that the home team is hammering away at the away team’s goal; that might make you more confident that a goal is coming. It isn’t, like everything else, 100% infallible but it sure helps. If it’s a televised game you can watch it of course if you have that channel. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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If a game is still 0-0 at or just before half time, you have to use a back bet to: a) Reduce the 0-0 liability down to zero or, b) create an acceptable loss on all outcomes (ignoring your ANY OTHER WIN lay of course) or, c) reduce the liability some on a 0-0 outcome and make all other outcomes (ignoring ANY OTHER again) no win/no lose.

In just about all cases, if you layed 0-0 properly, on shrinking odds, in two or three instalments as it were, you should be able to take your 0-0 position (liability) down to a very acceptable position at -£3 or -£4 or even less whilst protecting all other results apart from ANY OTHER WIN.

If you are willing to accept a -£2 or -£3 loss on any outcome (aside again from ANY OTHER WIN) then you will certainly always get out of jail on these games where you fully layed 0-0 and it stayed that way until half time, even if you took no early action between 36 and 45 minutes to back out. Please don’t simply hope for a second half goal in these games, or you could be committing yourself to a potentially big, unnecessary, loss. As I said earlier, don’t gamble unless you are well into using only profits made already. 78

Inevitably, the worst scenario you can imagine will be the end result when you gamble in this way.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I would only sanction this action if the odds were still unusually high to back 0-0 and you could still get the 0-0 liability down to £0 as a result later in the game. I keep saying words to the effect of “except ANY OTHER WIN”. In reality, you can often massively reduce or even kill off the liability on ANY OTHER WIN as well at half-time simply because the odds to back it are huge (60, 70 100 even at times).

Opportunities With ANY OTHER WIN.

Look out for unusual opportunities to take a really low ANY OTHER WIN price. It isn’t always that the market knows best. I spotted one between two Japanese teams in the illustration used next. This was also back when it was ANY UNQUOTED.

Had it been a J-League game I may not have done this believing that the market may have been right in its assessment that A.U. was highly likely as a result (but that is just me and my experience talking). But this was an AFC Cup match (Asian equivalent of the Champions League).

As it transpires, it was 0-0 at half time so, as an exercise, it conveniently serves to show you that 0-0 at half time isn’t a problem at all.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Let me explain what led to the image above. I saw an A.U. price of 7 that was, in my opinion, clearly opportunistic. I layed this and, in so doing, created only a £37.80 liability a smaller liability than I normally had on an A.U. lay.

I asked for and got a 0-0 lay for £4.25 at 11 to put my potential profit pot at the normal £10 after commission. It stayed 0-0 then until 42 minutes in. Rather than wait for half time and an even bigger drop in the 0-0 price, I then took early action to exit and grabbed the (remarkable) 5.4 odds I could still see and, at the same time, also backed A.U. at odds of 60 in case the Asian fellers went mad in the 2nd half. This is how it left me (sorry need to do this in two images as it’s a bit big):

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, 0-0 at half time and no potential damage anywhere. The result is below so you can see when the only goal was finally scored (88 minutes would you believe). ASP

It has to be said that, the game and those odds and so on are not a-typical of where you would normally be at half time. It was the result of a ridiculously low A.U price to begin with (now of course that would be ANY OTHER WIN price to begin with).

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I am not suggesting that you would go on these games all of the time but it has to also be said that cup games (and this was a last 16 stage cup game) often produce very cautious play and I took advantage of that because of my experience.

It should also be heavily stressed that it is hard to find meaningful head to head data in cup games and, more importantly, hard to compare teams from a different country and league. It is simple enough to compare UK Premier League sides with UK Championship sides and other UK league sides but not so easy when comparing across country borders.

A more typical situation in a game is that the 0-0 odds at half time would be down to 4 or below. Let us revisit that Osaka game with assumed half time 0-0 odds of 3.8 to back (which is a very common level).

I had a -£42.50 liability on 0-0 and a potential profit pot of £10.55 before commission on all other scores except ANY UNQUOTED. We can ignore A.U as you would always deal with A.U. separately and later under normal circumstances. I just wanted to demonstrate how all liabilities could be covered in this particular example.

So we have a £10.55 profit pot to use. The 0-0 odds are now 3.8 to back and were you to use all £10.55 to back 0-0 this would take £29.54 off of the 0-0 liability of -£42.50 leaving still a -£12.96 liability on 0-0 and £0 (no win, no lose) on all other outcomes except A.U.

But you could try to leave almost the same result (small liability) on all outcomes other than A.U/ANY OTHER WIN. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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To do that, you would divide the £12.96 left over liability calculated above (that’s if we had used £10.55 to back 0-0) by the available odds, thus £12.96 divided by 2.8 which equals £2.83.

This £2.83 is the additional stake we would then place on 0-0. So now, instead of £10.55 we back 0-0 for £13.88 at 3.8, this leaves 0-0 at £42.50 - £38.86 = -£3.64 and all other score-lines (except A.U/AOW.) at -£3.33 (£10.55 minus £13.88). Don’t get hung up by the maths, these are simple calculations once you are used to them and go through them a few times. And that is the key, GO THROUGH THEM A GOOD FEW TIMES.

The reality is that, for most users, little or no time is spent on studying real form or conditions on a possible game but, having said that, the best way to improve your chance of not getting on a bad game is to increase the input of information available to you. In doing so, you will start to develop an expectation of how a game will play out. This expectation is the critical link that takes a novice into the realms of experienced football trader.

Judging a game on odds alone is a pretty good guide because odds are remarkably accurate. But seeking certain other information in addition to merely looking at odds based filters, will show you patterns of play and patterns of results.

Some Common Sense Set Up Advice.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Before going on to this additional information, I just want to stress that, even after adding additional research prior to a match, you must understand that any match can still confound your expectations and not go according to plan.

Also, before looking at any additional information that is useful to you and where to find it, I’d like to deal a little with how you set yourself up to trade effectively.

You should know by now that this method of correct score trading is totally dependent upon the use of the Betfair betting exchange but what if Betfair was down, their site not working? It pays to get yourself a backup account with another exchange and the 2nd best is almost certainly Betdaq.com. You will rarely use it but to have it is, nevertheless, prudent just in case.

Imagine you layed a score-line on Betfair and then needed to back to create profit or safety by backing that same score-line and you then discovered that Betfair had crashed and the site was not working? This is where the other exchange account could suddenly be very handy.

It is not sensible to hope to find the exact bet you wanted at a bookmaker site but Betdaq are likely to have it. Do remember that Betdaq still use (as I write this) ANY UNQUOTED instead of ANY OTHER WIN/DRAW. 84

On a different subject, a good point to note on the flashscore.com, live score site, is that, for ease, you can add every match on which you bet in the “My Games” section of flashscore.com. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If you are betting on several matches at the same time it is imperative that matches are not ignored or worse, forgotten and the “cheer” alarm that you hear through your speakers will alert you to goals being scored. Here’s an image of the flashscore.com main daily page:

I tend to mostly operate the Assured Soccer Profits System on two, sometimes three, monitors but this isn’t essential (could be a PC and a phone of course). This just makes it easier for me to run multiple matches at one time whilst also doing other things.

It is just as easy really to switch between multiple tabs on your PC browser and, keeping it as simple as possible at the beginning is wise. One game at a time will get you there soon enough.

The final piece of set-up information I want to impart is the most critical. Make sure you are ready to trade. Try to keep any distractions at a minimum and, until you are really comfortable, it does pay to focus on this exclusively. Try not to trade when you’ve been drinking as this might make you take more risks than you should. Enough said…

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A Recap Before Moving On To Additional Information.

The Assured Soccer Profits System is an easy to use, low risk system which provides small but consistent profits. In essence two opposing bets are placed at or near the beginning of a football match and we then respond to the first goal, if there is one, or work to at least heavily reduce any potential loss if there isn’t by half-time. The majority of all of your matches will result in a win of a variable amount and the remainder are going to break even or lose a little.

Occasionally, and you need to just accept this, one game could cost you the profit from maybe even 4 or 5 games (possibly even more) but you will be assured of your profits overall. Master the exit strategies to ensure minimal or no loss as often as possible. Practise makes perfect and the more that you do on paper without committing money at first, the better off you will be in the long run.

There are many possible methods to reduce losses when unexpected or freak scores are encountered and you may even come up with a few yourself, perhaps even using markets outside of the correct score market such as the next goal market or total goals market.

The potential for new exit strategies here is huge but if you test for any yourself, please do test them thoroughly and ON PAPER.

ASP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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Additional Information, Optional Selection Filters.

It always pays to check out a little more information if you can before committing to trading a game. So let’s look at a few basics. This is the inhouse Betfair head to head data to do with a game this evening between Brighton and Leeds (this evening as I write this section of course).

These stats can be found at the bottom of most Betfair market screens and they serve as a useful quick guide to head to head form. The closer they are in the league normally, the closer they are in form and it helps to see how many times, critically, they have scored 4 goals in recent games and how often they have been in 0-0 outcomes recently. 87

That isn’t to say that a 4 goal recent result is an instant disqualification from trading any more than recent 0-0 scores are.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

What I would recommend is that you should be very cautious with 0-0 results IF there has been a tendency towards them on either side. This should influence how you approach 0-0. My golden rule on 0-0 is that if it seems more likely in a game than you feel is ideal, then just trade 0-0 gently. I will trade this game this evening but I will tread very carefully with 0-0 as you will see.

You can see that Brighton, in their last home game, beat Birmingham 4-3. Had we been on that game it would not have, on the face of it, been a good result for us with the ASP system. But the key statement there is “on the face of it” as the image below will show:

As you can see the game stood at 1-1 at half-time and this is actually pretty perfect to get out with profit everywhere on ASP and it goes some way to re-inforce what was said earlier. That was, even in games that end with 4 goals to one side, we do not necessarily have ourselves a loser. In addition this explains my earlier statement “that isn’t to say that a 4 goal recent result is an instant disqualification from trading” A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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When you look at Brighton v Leeds, in their last 3 meetings, no more than two goals to one side has been achieved and this game, for me, has every indication of being a good ASP game and so I am going to trade it.

Before I do however, I am going to introduce you properly to the best external resource I know of for really comparing teams, patterns of play and head to head form.

This involves spending a little time on soccerway.com a totally free resource full of information on more leagues than you’ll ever need. I didn’t get a chance to capture useful images from soccerway.com that relate directly to Brighton v Leeds pre-game as the game is about to start as I write this but I will come back to this after the game, probably tomorrow or the day after now, and show you the information I saw on Brighton V Leeds.

For now it is enough to know that this is what I checked earlier to make my final assessment on the game. I’ve moved on, it is 2 days later as I write this and the following images were taken after the game but I do show you, a little further on, some Betfair images of the game that I traded. Confusing isn’t it, but it’s all about time and concentration. I’m not a woman and so I do not have their finally tuned multi-tasking skills, more’s the pity. 89

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

The first step upon arrival at the soccerway.com site is to go to the relevant competition section. In my case here I want the UK Championship. I find this under the England section in the drop down.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Having clicked that I will find Championship listed.

Remember now that the following images are from after the Brighton v Leeds game that I actually traded but they will still serve us very well.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Scrolling down that page leads me to the current league table where I am particularly interested in digging down into head to head data once I click on the “compare two teams” button at the very bottom of the table.

In the head to head sections I can find much useful data starting with the most recent results between the two, going back some 4 or 5 seasons.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Note that between them there is no record of 4 goals scored by one team on display. You can look back further by clicking on previous at the top/right side above the fixture results.

Note, even then, going right back to 2005, still no 4 goal results. Now, once again, this does not mean that 4 goals to one side in this game could not happen. ANYTHING can happen in football but you can see how such a result would seriously buck a long-term trend.

What else does soccerway.com have for me? Well, if I scroll down the page a bit further…

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Studying the image above I can see most recent game results from both teams and, again, if I wish to, I can go back much further by clicking the previous link. Here I want to know about extreme results (4 + and 0-0) that could hurt us. I am looking for a pattern, particularly, of 4 plus goals as a warning. We looked at that 4-3 result Brighton had against Birmingham a little earlier and concluded that it was not a danger sign as it was 1-1 at half-time. It also seems exceptional rather than common with Brighton.

I do tend to have a cursory glance at earlier games sometimes (by clicking the previous link - top right of image above) but it is only the last few seasons that really give you a useable picture of results because, of course, there comes a point at which the team personnel would be totally different.

The next image shows a section on this same page that you can scroll down to that I do pay very close attention to:

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

This is an in-depth team comparison covering much that interests me. For example, the teams are very similar with their results of 38 goals for (Brighton) in 33 games and 34 goals for (Leeds) in 33 games. This of course would have been one game less prior to the fixture I traded but that takes nothing away from the value of the data.

I particularly compare Brighton at home with Leeds away as that is the dynamic on the game that I traded (would be trading). As can be seen overall goals per game shows an average of 1.15 goals per game for Brighton and 1.03 goals per game for Leeds. It doesn’t seem like there’s a strong likelihood of 4 goals going in. This particular piece of data is also very handy when looking at the under 2.5 goals odds. You can see why, in this game on 24th February, under 2.5 goals odds were well under 2.

With these two teams you must go back to 2011 to see a game between them where one scored 3 goals, let alone 4. So what else can soccerway.com tell us? Also useful is the average time of first goal scored. I’ve highlighted that above as well. Go just a little lower down the page and you can also get to look at when, typically, the goals that these teams score are scored. Now you can’t ever read too much into this information as any kind of bad defensive error can suddenly lead to a really early goal against expectation but that is the key. The most useful thing you can have when going into a game is an “expectation” of how it will play out. Without an expectation of how it will play out, how can you ever tell if something unexpected has just happened?

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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It isn’t sufficient, by the way, to say I always expect that not much will happen any more than it is particularly useful to say something daft like “I always expect my games to go wrong”. So as a guide to help us to our in-game expectation, this next image is very useful but only for that purpose and only useful when a season is well under way and some data has amassed. Early in the season? Look at last season but remember much could have changed.

You need to look at the overall picture for each team. Mostly, Brighton score more between 30 and 45 minutes after pretty slow starts to their games. They then have slow second half starts and burst into action come the 60 to 75 minute slot. Then comes that all important last 15 minutes that, of course, includes any final game injury/stoppage time.

Leeds show a similar pattern but get their final push on later. Leeds seem very slow to get into gear in the second half and this is indicative of a team who, all too often, are chasing a deficit towards the end. Brighton seem to build more pressure in the second half (note that curve I have drawn in). A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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You can see a pattern with many teams with this action period in the last section in half one and also the last section of half two. These do tend to be, statistically, the most prolific of all goal scoring periods as a rule anyway so I would expect to see that often.

But you can sometimes spot real, consistent, stand-out trends. The Brighton v Leeds image does not show a stand-out trend of any magnitude. If anything, it shows the most common type of trend. So let me find you one that does show a pattern that would give me a very clear expectation on the game.

Look at Manchester City compared to Chelsea. It seems that City come out and build pressure all the way. They feel out the opposition and “bed in” for the first two sections of a game and then start to step it up from 30 minutes onwards and keep stepping it up until the end.

Chelsea are pretty compulsive themselves but they do seem to show a burst of action once the whistle is first blow to start the game and then noticeably back off until 60 minutes. Interestingly, neither of these teams show the usual high goal scoring trend in the 30 to 45 minute section.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I do hope that this “expectation” idea makes sense because it helps me very much in my assessment of any game and time spent on soccerway.com is time very well spent.

The Brighton V Leeds Game. Remember, I always start off with an “expectation” of where the game is likely to go based on what I have seen with the odds filters and the additional input I gain from soccerway.com and so this game, in my head, was already likely to be a slow, low scoring affair (1 goal in the first half maybe) but I must also acknowledge that Brighton have been involved in two fairly recent 0-0 affairs and this is nagging at the back of my mind where the 0-0 lay is concerned.

This will shape my staking balance between ANY OTHER HOME WIN and 0-0. As you can see in the following image, I have already set the game up ready to trade, note how very cautious I was on 0-0 given what I said about Brighton’s recent 0-0 affairs.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I have layed ANY OTHER HOME WIN for £3 creating a potential liability there of £46.50. I would have liked to stake more given the lack of 4 goal games displayed by these two but the odds are too high really to go bigger. I have then set up 4, £1 lays, on 0-0 at odds between 8 and 5. As you can see in the next image, 0-0 odds currently stand at 11:

I have also highlighted the current potential profit pot after commission on that image. You can set your Betfair screens up to show figures net of commission yourself easily enough (I will show you later). In this case my screen is showing £2.85 (£3 less commission) which would all be gained, so far, from the £3 lay on ANY OTHER HOME WIN. You’ll also see I have indicated where the “My Favourites” button is (I labelled it “My Markets” as I am used to that expression. If you click that little star, then this game, specifically, this market on this game, gets added to your “favourites” file for easy retrieval later. In this next image you can see where/how those favourite (my markets) games are retrieved:

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Going back to an earlier image again (repeated below for ease) you can also see the CASH OUT button prominently displayed at the top of the image. This is also well worth keeping an eye on if you want “really easy” trading out later.

As time goes on and your trades/bets seem more and more likely to win you can click on “cash out” to get the Betfair software to instantly green everything up and give you an instant profit on all outcomes, But, beware, it will put an equal profit everywhere including on an unlikely outcome, for example, on the ANY OTHER outcomes even though you could, probably would, prefer to just get these down to 0.

As you will see in this developing game example, I left the full liability on ANY OTHER HOME WIN through the entire game and, had I used “cash out”, this would not have been the case. I don’t advise leaving that ANY OTHER liability. I certainly don’t advise that early on because a guaranteed, no further risk, profit is always best for a calm life.

Moving on some, the first of my 0-0 lays has been matched at 13 minutes in at odds of 8. You can also see I dropped the odds on the next bit of my request from 7 to 6.4. I often do this if I think the odds are falling quite quickly and I have fears about a 0-0 at half-time result.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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The game progresses and Brighton score just before my next 0-0 lay goes in - damn, should have left the next lay at 7!

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If I want more action (a bigger pot) on this game, to achieve that now I can either lay some more on ANY OTHER HOME WIN or I can lay 1-0. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In fact, if I wished, I could even lay any score between the two. I could lay both 1-0 and ANY OTHER HOME WIN. But, in this instance, I will really think about 1-0 before acting as looking at Brighton v Leeds and their most recent encounters they tend to often be 1-0 games.

I should stress right here that you would only know this by, at least, checking head to head results between them. The odds in game will not tell you that. So I certainly need to wait some on a decision to lay 1-0, there is no rush and the odds will fall.

But I will take some more action on ANY OTHER HOME WIN as I have nice low odds to do so now (9.4 in fact).

There were no further first half goals and I captured the next image just as we headed towards the end of the first 15 minutes of the second half. I wanted to show you that I could easily back ANY OTHER HOME WIN now to secure a profit absolutely everywhere. £2.01 would take ANY OTHER HOME WIN to ZERO, £2.15 backed on it would leave me with £4 profit on ANY OTHER HOMW WIN and £3.65 on all the rest.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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But you can see that had I simply hit the CASH OUT button, whilst this is nice and easy, I would have only kept £1.96 profit in the game. This is because the software isn’t clever enough to work out that some scores cannot now happen and so it calculates a stake that makes everything green and profitable.

But I felt very confident that I was not going to be threatened by 4 goals in this game and so left the liability entirely on ANY OTHER HOME WIN. Remember just £2 takes that down to near zero (leaves -30 pence)

Please, let me stress once more, I really do not advise that. Taking a £3 plus profit in this particular game knowing that any outcome now would equal a profit is far better for your health.

The game ended 2-0 to Brighton and I took a profit of £5.70. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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I did monitor the game using the football scanner tool I mentioned earlier and never felt that there was going to be a goal rush at any time. Our consultation with soccerway.com very much supported that anyway.

Alternate (Additional) Betting Consideration

In a game with a clear favourite that stacks up on the required filters, if the underdog scores first in the first half after you have made (and had taken) your 0-0 lay, you may give greater consideration to laying the current score-line. You should consider that a goal response from the favourite once behind is generally more likely than a goal response from an outsider once behind.

Again, there is no guarantee that this is correct and you might quite appropriately feel that with 0-0 out of the way and some potential profit secured there, that is enough. But an equaliser has to be a strong possibility.

This action can only reduce your ANY OTHER liability further and it will also top up the potential profit on any other score between the current score and the ANY OTHER score that you have layed. Remember also, and best of all, that the ANY OTHER (HOME/AWAY) WIN you layed, has now become less likely as a result with a goal to the other team.

In addition, were there to be a rapid response from the favourite and more goals quickly followed to them as a reaction to going behind, your ANY OTHER liability suddenly starts to look like a possible problem but you already started to reduce it. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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This additional lay on 0-1/1-0 gives us a bigger fund with which to deal with ANY OTHER if we start to get nervous and feel the need later to back out of that.

Statistically, the match will still finish without either team scoring 4 or more and, frankly, more goals from the underdog is almost certainly great news for us anyway and a far more confident environment to continue to lay in. Mostly, you will just have increased profits. Obviously, don’t do this unless it happens in the first half or, maybe, really early in the second half such as within 10 minutes and don’t do it at all unless you feel confident about being able to reverse this action later if there simply are no more goals.

Remember, if another goal is not scored we still have the option to exit the game by reversing this latest bet when (if) the odds reduce to the getout point in exactly the same way that we would deal with 0-0 at or approaching half time. In other words, if you layed 0-1 at 8 and the odds sink to 5, you can always back it using some of the available potential profit to reduce that 0-1 liability or kill it off. Geoff’s Results. I’d like to just show you a snap-shot image from Geoff’s results spreadsheet, just to give you a feel for how consistent his average profit per game was. Also, it is good for you to see that even a seasoned veteran did get losing games. It must be said that Geoff was far more disciplined in his approach to every game than I generally am. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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You can see that not all of those losing games were games involving 4 goals or more. This is because sometimes you will make another lay inplay after a goal only to find that there are then no further goals. There is a tendency then, if you are not fully aware of this, to over-react.

There are two ways to over-react. You can over-react by laying too heavily on the new, current, score-line and then doing nothing and just assuming that another goal will come eventually. 106

Or you can over-react by making that lay and then reversing it all too quickly because you start to panic. Remember that by reverse it, I always mean back it after laying it.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

You need to be comforted by the knowledge that this system was developed over some significant time and, for more than 16 months before I even opened the ASP site for the very first time, Geoff had been diligently keeping his results on a comprehensive spreadsheet. And he continued with that right up until he retired from the ASP project for good in June 2012, leaving us a legacy of well over two years of almost daily results. The snap shot shows that he was up to 471 days of results on 31st May 2011 when I first wrote this section, that’s no less than 2603 matches at that point. It can also be seen that £4.21 was the average return per game and that the daily average return was £23.29 (again apologies if it isn’t too clear, on this detail packed image).

These may not seem like earth-shattering figures but only 2% of all Betfair.com users make any money at all and these figures were simply based on Geoff’s comfort zone and the staking levels he felt comfortable with. The big point here is this, a little grows over time to a lot if you have a steady and consistent plan and this profit has been grown from zero and, at the time the image was captured, was running at an annualised rate of £8,499.

From a personal perspective, I see no reason why, given time to learn the system thoroughly, you could not increase the stakes to a level where £40 or £50 per day was achievable taking this to full time income levels for many. In fact those returns are achievable on the £10/£10.50 staking levels I talk about in this book IF you are on enough games and your bank is big enough to run multiple games at the same time. A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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The Betfair.com in-play market can, literally have 40 or 50 games available on some days in the full season. And remember, if you don’t have them downloaded already, access to Geoff’s results spreadsheet can be found at the ASP web site. The Betfair “My Favourites” Tool As mentioned early on, I said I would come back and cover how to set up and use this useful facility in more detail.

It is so easy for me to assume that everyone knows their way around and that I do not need to cover these small additional points but that would be unfair to those of you that are not familiar with Betfair.com and those that are but haven’t ever used this useful facility before. ASP Once you have separated the games that interest you into your own “My Favourites” menu and also separated those games into the “My Games” tab on Flashscore.com, then you have a simple and quick way of going straight to your games without having to constantly scroll through the entire “In-play” menu or the plethora of games covered on Flashscore.com. To set “My favourites” up is a breeze: 108

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Find the first of the games that interests you (this image shows the main betting menu screen for that game) and you will see that there is a star (follow the arrow) top right of screen. Clicking this star would take the whole game betting menu into “MY FAVOURITES”.

And here it is (above) after clicking the star. But we only really want the correct score market after checking our under 2.5, under 3.5 and match odds market odds. So let’s go to the CORRECT SCORE market and specifically add that into favourites.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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And now we can go to MY FAVOURITES to make sure it is there.

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Now, perhaps, obviously, you need to be logged into your Betfair.com account to be able to access your stored favourites.

A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

And how about setting up your Betfair.com account so that your live betting markets show your profit and loss situation in real time AFTER commission? First make sure you are logged in. Then look for the link to “DISPLAY OPTIONS”. It is always top right of the screen.

Click on that link and you will get this:

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, I have highlighted the profit and loss section to display net of commission. I have also got display “what if” figure ticked. This then enables me to put a bet request in and instantly see what it does to my betting market screen as you can see below

Having asked for a lay bet (odds 8.4 for £7) on ANY OTHER HOME WIN, the betting screen instantly shows me where I will be after/if that bet is matched even before I click the “Place Bets” button seen in the image below. That is what the “what if” function does when active.

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A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

That’s All Folks. I would recommend going to profitmagnets.com to avail yourself of the Betting Exchange guide and the other free books on gambling generally on offer there and, of course, the video on how to stake under £2 at Betfair.com . If you join profitmagnets.com (free to do so) there is even a complimentary book on poker.

Please let us know about your Assured Soccer Profits System experience by keeping in touch with me on [email protected] or [email protected] Here’s to consistent and steady profits! Enjoy!

John Please note; official copies of this book are only officially sold through assuredsoccerprofits.com or profitmagnets.com . If you got this book from any other source you are reading a pirate copy and, effectively, helping to steal from the creators. Just ask yourself how you would feel if others were doing that to you. In addition, no support could ever be given to someone with an illegitimate copy.

ASP A S P System © Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd – John Duncan (With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

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