&essimistic scenario 7 )** transaction customers and * relationship customers switch to express+ (billion $)
Before Express
After Express
(Billion $)
Before Express
After Express
2310
2310
Transaction sales an& relations'i$ sales (5%) Current Sales
NA
1501.5
NA
808.5
COGS (83%)
1917.3
71.055
Sellin! "#$enses
159.39
95.3
Gross ar!in
233.31000000
1.811
Total Sales
Impact on sales and profitability
Oerall e*ect
(billion $)
Change in % sales
Change in % gross margin
O$ti+istic
(25)
(2.1)
,essi+istic
(5)
(82)
-"ST/ON 3
How would A/S8s suppliers react to Express?
All the 5**** customers are exposed to all the maor suppliers+ In this way they will reach to more number of customers throu$h Express+ Since any supplier has franchised only 2 distributors for the same line card (product line), they can 9ery well intentionally reduce the price of the products and further reduce the mar$ins of existin$ distributors+ 1ar$ins for commodity products (BAS) may $et reduced from 25 to lower le9els due to the intentional price reductions from the supplier+
Suppliers throu$h the bulletin board ha9e information about the in9entory le9els of all the other competitors 9ia their franchised distributors+ Hence with the proper demand forecast they can efficiently modify their production schedules to accommodate the in9entories in lieu of the competition+
%n the other hand since no actual communication is in9ol9ed between the distributors and %E1s or customers' hence it will be 9ery difficult for the suppliers to demonstrate and $enerate the demand+ "hey used to $enerate the demand with the help of their distributors+
-"ST/ON
:inally' ;as Express a "hreat to or an opportunity for A/S?
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