basics of fundamental and technical analysis a project report for finance student...
A PROJECT REPORT ON BASICS OF FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Under the aegis of:
Submitted By Anuradha Gupta PGDM(2008-10) Roll no- 0125142128 FACULTY GUIDE :
H.K JHA KUMAR AGRAWAL
ASSOC. PROFESSOR MANAGER
RAHUL AREA SALES
BLSIM, Ghaziabad GZB.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The ideal way to commence documenting this project would be to extend my profound gratitude to everyone who encouraged me and guided me throughout this project. At the onset I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to BLS Institute of Management, Ghaziabad for providing me the opportunity to pursue my Summer Internship Program with HSBC InvestDirect (India) limited, Ghaziabad. I earnestly acknowledge the opportunity provided by HSBC INVESTDIRECT (INDIA) LIMITED, GHAZIABAD to realize my Summer Internship Program within the precincts of the company under the guidance of its employees. I have completed this project, based on Primary and secondary research, under the guidance of my college mentor Mr. H.K Jha and Mr. Rahul Kumar Agarwal, my company mentor. My special thanks to my co-students and dear friends Ms. Daizy choudhary , Mr. Neeraj Tiwari, Mr. Vipin Kushwaha and Ms. Tanu Dhal who being a part of the same internship, supported me throughout my Internship and with whose help I could complete my work efficiently and effectively. Their consistent help kept me motivated and going. Last but not the least, my endless appreciation goes to my family who has stood by my side and given me moral support whenever I was low and boosted my will power. Thanking you Anuradha Gupta
TO WHOMSOEVER IT MAY CONCERN On behalf of HSBC InvestDirect (India) Ltd., I take the privilege of recognizing the efforts put in by Ms. Anuradha gupta to carry out her Project on “Basics of Fundamental And Technical Analysis . She has not only carried out this study as a part of her curriculum but has proven to be a key member in bringing positive contribution in our Sales strategies. The project carried out by her has given us some focused reasons to improve our people practices, focus on employee satisfaction level as well contribute to our sales. In fact we are considering adapting a few suggestions given by her in the above context. Lastly, I would like to thank your esteemed institution for providing your students such a platform; for them to learn from their experiences while carrying out these studies. Warm regards, (Rahul Kumar Agarwal) Area Sales Manager
DECLARATION I, Ms. Anuradha Gupta do hereby declare that the project report titled “ BASICS OF FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS” is a genuine research work undertaken by me and it has not been published anywhere earlier.
ANURADHA GUPTA BLS Institute of Management
CERTIFICATE BY THE FACULTY GUIDE This is to certify that the project report entitled “ BASICS OF FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ” at HSBC Invest Direct (India) Limited is a bonafide record of Work done by Anuradha Gupta, and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of PGDM program of BLS Institute Of Management, Ghaziabad.
Mr. H.K JHA (Assoc. Professor) BLS Institute Of Management, Ghaziabad
Table of content Executive summery Company Profile Basics Of Stock market Risk V/S return analysis Portfolio Management Fundamental Analysis Current Facts and Finding that helps in fundamental analysis Technical Analysis Sample technical Report Research design and methodology Reference & Bibliography
Executive summery This project has been a great learning experience for me; at the same time it gave me enough scope to implement my analytical ability. This project as a whole can be divided into several parts: The first part gives an insight about the about the company and its various aspects. I got an opportunity to learn what is really meant by fundamental & technical analysis in stock market, how is it implemented in the stock market and improved on my learning in class where we just went through the basics. Fundamental analysis is an examination of future earnings potential of a Company, by looking into various factors that impact the performance of the Company. The prime objective of a fundamental analysis is to value the stock And accordingly buy and sell the stocks on the basis of its valuation in the Market Technical analysis mainly based on intraday trade and predicting the price movements which require in depth study of live charts changing every minute with the market. Also I present some fact and figure that help investor in fundamental analysis and one sample of analysis to know about how to do technical analysis The second part consists of preparation of technical reports on a daily / weekly basis in which we try to give a near accurate prediction of support & resistance levels of stock etc.
ORGANIZATIONAL PROFILE HCBC INVEST DIRECT (INDIA) LTD
ORIGIN OF THE ORGANISATION •
HSBC InvestDirect (India) ltd is one of the leading financial services organizations in India. The company is providing customized financial management solutions to individuals and corporate. Their principal activities are to provide brokerage related, investing and financial services. They also provide loan and credit activities, insurance products and security dealing services. At IIL, we believe in "Realizing your goals together". You will find in us - a trusted investment partner to help you work towards achieving your financial goals. Our institutional expertise, combined with a thorough understanding of the financial markets results in appropriate investment solutions for you. Our strong team of RelationshipManagers, Customer Service Executives, Advisory Managers and Research Analysts offers efficient execution backed by in-depth research, knowledge and expertise to customers across the country. The details of the organization
Incorporation- September 1, 1997, as Investsmart India Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd . Commencement as a broking agency Equity broking- February 1998 on NSE August 1999 on BSE Derivative broking- June 2000, on NSE
Other achievements and major ActivitiesYEAR 1997-1998
EVENTS February 1998 commenced equity broking on NSE.
Commenced branch operations for retail business at Bangalore, Chennai, and Kolkata.
August 1999 commenced equity broking on BSE. March 30, 2000 ORIX subscribed to 80, 00, 000 equity shares. March 30, 2000 K. Raheja group subscribed to 30, 00, 000 equity 9
shares. Launched a fully functional website: www.investsmartindia.com 2000-2001
April 14, 2000 change in the registered office of the company. June 2000 commenced derivative broking on NSE. January 2001 launched investment advisory products Setup a dedicated mutual fund desk and fixed income retail desk at branch locations. Received SEBI registration as a Portfolio Manager.
January 01, 2002 Merger of IL&FS Merchant Banking Services Limited (IMBSL) and DebtonNet India Limited (DIL) with the Company. Foray into insurance distribution through setting up of wholly owned subsidiaries i.e. Investsmart Insurance Agency Pvt. Ltd. and Investsmart Insurance Distribution Private Limited as Corporate Agents of HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Limited and Life Insurance Corporate of India respectively. Registered as an Underwriter with SEBI. Acquired 4 branches of Tata TD Waterhouse Securities Pvt. Limited along with assets. Incorporated wholly owned commodity brokers limited.
Acquired IL&FS Academy for Insurance and Finance Limited(Formerly known as SAIFA Training Academy Limited) 2004 – 2005
Induction of ETM and SAIF as strategic investors. Commenced derivative broking on BSE. IL&FS Investsmart Insurance and Risk Management Services Limited (formerly Investsmart Insurance Distribution Private Limited) applied for insurance broking license which is currently pending with IRDA. Name of SAIFA Training Academy Limited was changed to IL&FS Academy for Insurance and Finance Limited. Commenced commodities broking business through wholly owned subsidiary, IL&FS Investsmart Commodity Brokers Limited.
IL&FS Investsmart Ltd has informed that Mr. Mitchell Caplan, Chief Executive Officer and Director of E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation, USA has been appointed as an Additional Director on 10
the Board of the Company 2008-2009 •
September 30 2008 HSBC acquires IL&FS Investsmart in India.
The company received the 'Best Performing National Financial Advisor Award' from CNBC for the two years.
ITS VISSION MISSION AND CORPORATE ACTION
Vision To become a long term preferred long term financial to a wide base of customer whilst optimizing Stake holder value.
Mission To establish a base of 1 million satisfied customer by 2010 We will crest this by being a responsible trustworthy partner.
Corporate action An approach to business that reflects responsibility, transparency and ethical behavior. Respect for employee client and stake holder group.
HSBC Acquires IL&FS Investsmart in India About HSBC The HSBC Group in India is represented by several entities including The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited which offers a full range of banking and financial services to its over 2.8 million customers in India through its 47 branches and 170 ATMs across 26 cities. HSBC is one of India's leading financial services groups, with over 34,000 employees in its banking, investment banking and capital markets, asset management, insurance broking, two global IT development centers and six global resourcing operations in the country. The Bank is the founding and a principal member of the HSBC Group which, with over 9,500 offices in 85 countries and territories and assets of US$2,547 billion at 30 June 2008, is one of the world's largest banking and financial services organizations. Acquisition • • •
Acquired share- 93.86% Cost of acquisition- 311.0 crore Acquisition proportion- 45.85% from E*TRADE & 29.26% from IL & FS
HSBC has completed the acquisition of 93.86 per cent of IL&FS Investsmart Limited (Investsmart), a leading retail brokerage in India, for a total consideration of INR1, 311.0 Crore (approximately US$296.4 million).
Sandy Flockhart, Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of HSBC Asia- Pacific, said: "Investsmart gives HSBC access to the world's third-largest investor base, with over 20 million retail investors. In fact, the business already has 143,000 customers and operates in 128 cities. With Indian GDP expected to grow by 7.8 per cent in 2009, the opportunity here is obvious and underlines why HSBC has a stated strategic aim of focusing on high-growth economies."
Under the transaction agreement, HSBC acquired 43.85 per cent of Investsmart from E*TRADE Mauritius Limited, an indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of E*TRADE Financial Corporation, and 29.36 per cent from Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services Limited (IL&FS). The decision to acquire a controlling stake in Investsmart triggered an open offer to public shareholders, through which HSBC has accepted shares equivalent to 20.65 per cent of Investsmart's capital. 12
E*TRADE Mauritius Limited, IL&FS and those that tendered shares through the open offer received INR200 per share for their Investsmart shares. In addition, IL&FS was paid, as part of a three-year non-compete agreement, INR82.0 crore (approximately US$17.9 million). In accordance with local regulations, HSBC paid interest of INR2.3 per share to the public shareholders who tendered their shares. This amounted to INR3.31 crore approximately US$0.72 million).
SERVICES PROVIDING BY THE IL&FS INVESTSMART LTD
Service By IL&FS Investsmart Securities Private Limited
Retail offeringRetail offerings of IIL seek to cover all financial planning requirements of individuals, which include providing personalized investment management services including planning, advisory, execution and monitoring of the full range of investment services. Broadly the retail services are divided into two broad categories. •
Advisory Services: Portfolio Management Services, Mutual Funds, Insurance.
Trading Services: Equities, Derivatives, IPO’s
IL’s Institutional business thrives on the strong relationships we have built among domestic mutual funds, banks, financial institutions, insurance companies and private sector funds over the past few years • Merchant banking • Institutional debt market
Online trading Online trading allows you to buy and sell shares on the exchange through Internet. It is a truly powerful medium to be in direct control of your investments Advisory services Provide research to facilitate investor.
Functional Department of the Organization
On line Trading
IPO- Initial public offering PMS- Portfolio management services
ORGANISATION STRUCTURE AND ORGANISATION CHART Board of Directors Mr. Manasije Mishra
Managing Director & CEO
Mr. Hardeep Singh
Dr. Ajay Dua
Ms. Sonal Dave
HSCI Nominee, Non-Executive Director
Mr. Conrado Engel
Violet Nominee, Non-Executive Director
Mr. Tarun Kataria
Violet Nominee, Non-Executive Director
Ms. Kashmira Mathew
Alternate Director to Mr. Conrado Engel
The Management Team Manasije Mishra
Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Chief Technology and Services Officer (CTSO)
Chief Financial Officer (CFO) 15
Avdhoot Deshpande Head – Equity and Capital Markets Vipul Shah Dharmen Shah Jaideep Anand
Head – NBFC Senior Vice President - Institutional Equity Senior Vice President - Institutional Sales & Dealing
B. S. Shashidhar
Head - IAIFL and General Insurance
Head - Alternate Channels
Chief Information Officer (CIO)
Head – Human Resources
Head - Legal Compliance and Secretarial
Head – Branches
Product and Services of the organization
OFF LINE PRODUCT
ON LINE PRODUCT
ORGANISATION STRUCTURE CEO
REGIONAL HEAD (NORTH)
SALES HEAD (RAJASTHAN )
REGIONAL HEAD (SOUTH)
SALES HEAD (DELHI – NCR)
BRANCH MANAGER GHAZIABAD, GURGOAN,
REGIONAL HEAD (WEST)
REGIONAL HEAD (EAST)
SALES HEAD HARYANA & PUNJAB
SALES HEAD (UTTAR PRADESH)
REGIONAL SALES MANAGER
AREA SALES MANAGER
Online product offering (WEB BASED) SMARTSTART Features • • • • • • • • • •
Trade on NSE & BSE Simple order entry for Equity & Derivatives Fully Customizable display User friendly Get Quote screen Integrated Accounts (Bank. Demat & Trading) Live order status Track your orders real-time Dynamic buying power Works behind a Proxy Back office access
SMARTINVEST Features • Instant Loading •
Works behind a Proxy
Live Streaming quotes
Multiple Watch lists
NSE& BSE Access
Single order form for Cash and FnO
Point and Click order entry
Hot Key Functions
Market Depth Window
Back Office access APPLICATION BASED-SMART TRADE 18
Features• Fully Customizable display • Dynamic Charts with Indicators • EOD Charts • Real-Time market data • Advanced Alert capabilities • Live order status • Track your orders real time • Real time position updates • Dynamic buying power • Derivative chain • Lock terminal option • Message window docking
Three main constituent of the product TRADING ACCOUNT
BANK ACCOUNT OR LEDGER
BANK ACCOUNTFor settlement of transaction and it is the rule that no money or rupee transaction will be done in stock market that is govern by RBI. Trading account19
For buying and selling of the share that is govern buy two major stock exchange namely NSE and BSE Demate account Like a self where you can put your shares in dematerished form, the demate governing body is two depository of India they are NSDL, and CDSL. If one of the above will not be their, it is not possible to enter into the transaction in stock market and the over all governing body is SEBI.
BASICS OF STOCK MARKET
What is an investment? An investment is the current commitment of dollars for a period of time in order to derive future payments that will compensate the investor for (1) The time the funds are committed, (2) The expected rate of inflation, and (3) The uncertainty of the future payments Option available for investment •
Short term – Money market, saving bank account, liquid fund, bank fixed deposit for short term Long termPost office saving, public provident fund, mutual fund, Bonds debenture and shares
• AssetsPhysical assetsreal estate, gold jewellery, and commodity Financial assetsbank instrument and securities market instrument •
Primary marketIPO, FPO, Right Issue & Preferential Issue Secondary marketShare, Bond, Derivative, Mutual funds Three golden rule of Investment22
• • •
Invest early Invest regularly Invest for long term not for short term
What is meant by ‘Securities’? The definition of ‘Securities’ as per the Securities Contracts Regulation Act (SCRA), 1956, includes instruments such as shares, bonds, scrip, stocks or Other marketable securities of similar nature in or of any incorporate company or body corporate, government securities, derivatives of securities, units of collective investment scheme, interest and rights in securities, Security receipt or any other instruments so declared by the Central Government What is the function of Securities Market? •
Securities Markets is a place where buyers and sellers of securities can enter into transactions to purchase and sell shares, bonds, debentures etc.
Further, it performs an important role of enabling corporate, entrepreneurs to raise resources for their companies and business ventures through public issues.
Transfer of resources from those having idle resources (investors) to others who have a need for them (corporate) is most efficiently achieved through the securities market.
Stated formally, securities markets provide channels for reallocation of savings to investments and entrepreneurship.
Savings are linked to investments by a variety of intermediaries, through a range of financial products, called ‘Securities’. Regulators of the Securities Market? • • • • •
Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Department of Company Affairs (DCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). SECURITIES CONTRACTS (REGULATION) ACT, 1956
• • • • • • • • • • •
SECURITIES CONTRACTS (REGULATION) RULES, 19576.3 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA ACT, 1992 SEBI (STOCK BROKERS & SUB-BROKERS) REGULATIONS, 1992 SEBI (PROHIBITION OF INSIDER TRADING) REGULATIONS, 1992 SEBI (PROHIBITION OF FRAUDULENT AND UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES RELATING TO SECURITIES MARKETS) REGULATIONS, 2003 THE DEPOSITORIES ACT, 1996 INDIAN CONTRACT ACT, 1872\ THE COMPANIES ACT, 1956 GOVERNMENT SECURITIES ACT 2006 INCOME TAX ACT, 1961 MONEY LAUNDERING ACT, 2002 SECURITIES TRANSACTION TAX.. SEBI and its role ?
• • • • • • •
Regulating the business in stock exchanges and any other securities markets Registering and regulating the working of stock brokers, sub–brokers etc. Promoting and regulating self-regulatory organizations Prohibiting fraudulent and unfair trade practices Calling for information from, undertaking inspection, conducting inquiries and audits of the stock exchanges, intermediaries, self – regulatory organizations, mutual funds and other persons associated With the securities market
Participants in the Securities Market?
PARTICIPENT OF THE SECURITY MARKET
ISSURE OF THE SECURITIES
INVESTOR IN THE SECURITUES
In simple term Issuer is mainly the borrower of the fund like corporate and govt, investor is the lender of the fund who accept risk to get return and the intermediaries, such as merchant bankers, brokers etc and above them the governing body who govern the entire market to protect the interest of all.
Trading platform for investor The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), provide a trading platform, where buyers and sellers can meet to transact in securities that is called stock exchange basically there are two major stock exchange in India they are• NSE • BSE Apart from these two there are 22 regional stock exchange in India that are spared all over India ROLE OF NSE IN INDIAN SECURITIES MARKET National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) was given recognition as a Stock exchange in April 1993. NSE was set up with the objectives of •
Establishing a nationwide trading facility for all types of securities,
Ensuring equal access to all investors all over the country through an appropriate communication network,
Providing a fair, efficient and transparent securities market using electronic trading system,
Enabling shorter settlement cycles and book entry settlements, and
Meeting the International benchmarks and standards.
The Exchange has played a leading role as a change agent in transforming the Indian Capital Markets to its present form. NSE has set up infrastructure that serves as a role model for the securities industry in terms of trading systems, clearing and settlement practices and procedures. The standards set by NSE in terms of market practices, products, technology and service standards have become industry benchmarks and are being replicated by other market participants. It provides screen-based automated trading system with a high degree of transparency and equal access to investors irrespective of geographical location.
The Exchange currently operates three market segments • • •
Capital Market Segment, Wholesale Debt Market Segment and Futures an Options segment. CONCEPT OF DEMUTULISATION IN NSE
Right from its inception, the exchange has adopted the purest form of demutualised set up whereby the ownership, management and trading rights are in the hands of three different sets of people. This has completely eliminated any conflict of interest and helped NSE to aggressively pursue policies and practices within a public interest framework NEAT SYSTEM The NEAT system supports an order driven market, wherein orders match on the basis of price and time priority. All quantity fields are in units and prices are quoted in Indian Rupees. The regular lot size and tick size for various securities traded is notified by the Exchange from time to time.
Primary marketPrimary market provides opportunity to issuers of securities, Government as well as corporate, to raise resources to me et their requirements of investment and/or discharge 26
some obligation. The issuers create and issue fresh securities in exchange of funds through public issues and/or as private placement.
Secondary marketSecondary market is the place for sale and purchase of existing securities. It enables an investor to adjust his holdings of securities in response to changes in his assessment about risk and return. It also enables him to sell securities for cash to meet his liquidity needs. It essentially comprises of the stock exchanges which provide platform for trading of securities and a host of intermediaries who assist in trading of securities and clearing and settlement of trades.
Clearing of Trades
Decision to Trade
Settlement of Trades
Return v/s risk in stock market Return and risk are the two key determinants of security prices or values. In he stock market their should be a proper trade off between both to maintain the equilibrium. 28
Return on an investment/asset for given period, say a year, consists of annual income (dividend) receivable plus change in market price.
Risk may be described as variability/fluctuation/deviation of actual return from expected return from a given asset/investment. Higher the variability, greater is the risk. In other words the more certain the return from an asset, lesser is the variability and thereby lesser is the risk. The major sources of RISK, including-:
• • • • •
Business risk, Financial risk (leverage), Liquidity risk, Exchange rate risk, and Country (political) risk Business risk
Business risk is the uncertainty of income flows caused by the nature of a firm’s business. The less certain the income flows of the firm, the less certain the income flows to the investor. Therefore, the investor will demand a risk premium that is based on the uncertainty caused by the basic business of the firm. As an example, a retail food company would typically experience stable sales and earnings growth over time and would have low business risk compared to a firm in the auto industry, where sales and earnings fluctuate substantially over the business cycle, implying high business risk. Financial risk Financial risk is the uncertainty introduced by the method by which the firm finances its investments. If a firm uses only common stock to finance investments, it incurs only business risk. If a firm borrows money to finance investments, it must pay fixed financing charges (in the form of interest to creditors) prior to providing income to the common stockholders, so the uncertainty of returns to the equity investor increases. This increase in uncertainty because of fixed-cost financing is called financial risk or financial leverage and causes an increase in the stock’s risk premium.
Liquidity risk Liquidity risk is the uncertainty introduced by the secondary market for an investment. When an investor acquires an asset, he or she expects that the investment will mature (as with a bond) or that it will be salable to someone else. In either case, the investor expects to 29
be able to convert the security into cash and use the proceeds for current consumption or other investments. The more difficult it is to make this conversion, the greater the liquidity risk. An investor must consider two questions when assessing the liquidity risk of an investment: (1) How long will it take to convert the investment into cash? (2) How certain is the price to be received? Similar uncertainty faces an investor who wants to acquire an asset: How long will it take to acquire the asset? How uncertain is the price to be paid? Exchange rate risk Exchange rate risk is the uncertainty of returns to an investor who acquires securities denominated in a currency different from his or her own. The likelihood of incurring this risk is becoming greater as investors buy and sell assets around the world, as opposed to only assets within their own countries. A U.S. investor who buys Japanese stock denominated in yen must consider not only the uncertainty of the return in yen but also any change in the exchange value of the yen relative to the U.S. dollar. That is, in addition to the foreign firm’s business and financial risk and the security’s liquidity risk, the investor must consider the additional uncertainty of the return on this Japanese stock when it is converted from yen to U.S. dollars. Country risk Country risk, also called political risk, is the uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a major change in the political or economic environment of a country. The United States is acknowledged to have the smallest country risk in the world because its political and economic systems are the most stable
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RISK AND RETURN
Low risk Moderate risk
SML Expected Return
SML-security market line The risk and return should be having the relationship the more risk the more returm in systematic type of risk All indicator or source of risk cause the bad effect to the market, lender & borrower so we should take care of all type of risk in the market before investing
Type of risk
Type of Risk
Unsystematic risk Systematic Risk
Refers to that portion of total variability (/risk) in return caused by factors affecting the prices of all securities. Economic, political, and sociological changes are the main sources of systematic risk. Though it affects all the securities in the market, the extend to which it affects a security will vary from one security to another. Systematic risk can not be diversified. Systematic risk can be measured in terms of Beta (ß), a statistical measure. The beta for market portfolio is equal to one by definition. Beta of one (ß=1), indicates that volatility of return on the security is same as the market or index; beta more than one (ß>1) indicates that the security has more unavoidable risk or is more volatile than market as a whole, and beta less than one (ß