Analisis de Los Pronosticos en Los Proyectos

 

 

Ed`. Odafduon Sbdiûd Jodafduonrbdibds 6.

Gestbref io nbs prbdûstekbs

Nf kbdstfdto dokoseifi pbr sfcor nb quo bkurreræ od on huturb os udf kbstuacro auy fdte`uf, y kbrrospbdio f udf probkupfkeûd oxestodto od tbib sor guafdb. Os fsá quo kbd nf utenezfkeûd io aåtbibs io prbdûstekb so oapozû f cuskfr nf roiukkeûd io nf edkorteiuacro, y so edtrbiulb nf prbabkeûd io ostrfto`efs pfrf pnfdehekfr y iespbdor io udf rospuostf fdto kufnqueor gokgb huturb. Os pbr ostb, quo f nb nfr`b ion teoapb so krofrbd ievorsfs gepûtoses sbcro on kbapbrtfaeodtb io vfrefcnos quo eapfktfcfd ieroktfaodto sbcro nf sbkeoifi y su kbapbrtfaeodtb, kfif voz aæs kfacefdto. Nf gestbref gf abstrfib kbab, iosio on se`nb WXEE, `rfdios aftoaætekbs kbab Cordbunne, Nfpnfko y Cfyos, iosfrrbnnfrbd pbstunfibs gfkeodib usb io vfrefcnos ioab`ræhekfs, okbdûaekfs y sbkefnos, kbd nf hedfneifi io edtodtfr oxpnekfr su kbapbrtfaeodtb od on trfdskursb ion teoapb. Io gokgb, od iekgf åpbkf, Cordbunne rofnezû eapbrtfdtos fpbrtos kbd sus edvoste`fkebdos aftoaætekfs, io nb kufn sur`eû nf iodbaedfif kbab nf tobráf io nfs prbcfceneifios. Odtro tfdtb, pfrf Gfdmo y Pekgord (3::8), on prbdûstekb y aukgfs io nfs tåkdekfs utenezfifs pfrf tfn hed od nf fktufneifi, sur`eorbd od on se`nb WEW, odtro onnfs on fdæneses io ro`roseûd. Db bcstfdto, kbd on sur`eaeodtb io nfs kbaputfibrfs, y f aoieifs quo nfs aesafs edkroaodtfcfd su prosodkef od on aorkfib, nfs tåkdekfs utenezfifs pfrf prbdbstekfr so gfkáfd aæs iotfnnfifs y aæs sbhestekfifs. Io e`ufn hbraf, f aoieif quo gezb aæs dbtbref nf probkupfkeûd pbr on prbkosb io prbdûstekb, on iosfrrbnnb io duovfs y aolbrfifs tåkdekfs oapozû f edkroaodtfr io hbraf kbdseiorfcno.

 

3.

Yepbs io prbdûstekbs od prbyoktbs

Oxestod vfrebs tepbs io prbdûstekbs io fkuorib f su knfsehekfkeûd, odtro nbs aæs kbaudos so odkuodtrfd nbs prbdûstekbs so`üd on pnfzb, od hudkeûd fn odtbrdb f prbdbstekfr, y on prbdûstekb ronfkebdfib fn tepb io prbkoieaeodtb b aåtbib oapnofib. [o`üd Gfdmo, y Pekgor (3::8), iohedod tros tepbs io prbdûstekbs so`üd on pnfzb, on preaorb os on prbdûstekb f kbrtb pnfzb, utenezfib pfrf iesoöfr y prosodtfr ostrfto`efs edaoieftfs, on so`udib so roheoro f udf porebib io teoapb edtoraoieb, iodbaedfib prbdbstekb io aoiefdb pnfzb, os üten pfrf iokesebdos io tbibs nbs devonos. Zbr unteab, nbs prbdûstekbs io nfr`b pnfzb, so iosfrrbnnfd pfrf su utenezfkeûd od nbs prbkosbs io pnfdehekfkeûd ostrftå`ekf. Io fkuorib f Gfdmo, y Pekgor (3::8), nbs prbdûstekbs Aekrb y Afkrb ostæd ronfkebdfibs kbd on odtbrdb quo so ioco kbdseiorfr pfrf nf rofnezfkeûd io nbs aesabs, pfrf nb kufn so iocod tbafr tbibs fquonnbs onoaodtbs quo hbrafd pfrto ion odtbrdb `odorfn y ion odtbrdb ospokehekb. Zbr su pfrto, Moft, Z. y Ubud`, Z. (3::9), ostfcnokod nbs tepbs io prbdûstekbs kufnetftevb y kufdtetftevb, od hudkeûd fn prbkoieaeodtb b aåtbib utenezfib. On prbdûstekb kufnetftevb so cfsf od luekebs io nbs edieveiubs b `rupbs, y fudquo sus rosuntfibs pbiráfd prosodtfrso od hbraf duaårekf, `odorfnaodto db ostæd cfsfibs od udf soreo io iftbs gestûrekbs, nb kufn gfko kbdtrfsto kbd on prbdûstekb kufdtetftevb, quo utenezf udf soreo io iftbs provebs kbab cfso io proiekkeûd. ;.

Kbdseiorfkebdos ion odtbrdb oaprosfrefn.

Ybif oaprosf ioco todor od kuodtf nbs ohoktbs quo prbiuko nf edtorfkkeûd io nf aesaf kbd tbib fquonnb quo nf rbiof, nb quo so kbdbko kbab odtbrdb oaprosfrefn. Zbr nb kufn, on fdæneses ion odtbrdb os hudifaodtfn f nf gbrf io ovfnufr kufn os nf pbsekeûd io nf oaprosf y quo gorrfaeodtfs kuodtf pfrf fhrbdtfr nbs kfacebs quo puoiod bkfsebdfr nbs onoaodtbs tfdtb edtordbs kbab nbs oxtordbs.

 

Io fkuorib f Sbcceds y kbuntor (3:6:), on odtbrdb oaprosfrefn so kbapbdo ion odtbrdb `odorfn y on odtbrdb ospokehekb. On odtbrdb `odorfn ostf iohedeib pbr nfs kbdiekebdos okbdûaekfs, pbnátekb-no`fnos, sbkebkunturfnos, ioab`ræhekfs, tokdbnû`ekfs y `nbcfnos. Zbr btrb nfib, on odtbrdb ospokáhekb edknuyo nbs onoaodtbs oxtordbs quo fhoktfd ieroktfaodto od udf oaprosf u br`fdezfkeûd, nbs kufnos ostæd roprosodtfibs pbr nbs kneodtos, prbvooibros, kbapoteibros, y nbs iodbaedfibs `rupbs io proseûd, quo kbrrospbdiod f edtorosos ospokefnos. Zbr su pfrto Xfd Gbrdo y Pfkgbwekz (3:6:), gfkod ådhfses od nf oxestodkef io tros predkepfnos odtbrdbs oaprosfrefnos. On preaorb io onnbs os on odtbrdb io do`bkebs, on kufn so roheoro fn tepb io br`fdezfkeûd quo so kbdhbraf, kbab nf prbpeoifi üdekf, nfs sbkeoifios, kbrpbrfkebdos, odtro btrfs. On so`udib odtbrdb, rohoreib f nf pfrto heskfn, teodo quo vor kbd nbs fspoktbs fsbkefibs f eapuostbs, kbdtrecukebdos y ioaæs bcne`fkebdos. Zbr unteab y db aodbs eapbrtfdto on odtbrdb hedfdkeorb, quo edvbnukrf vfrefcnos io hudkebdfaeodtb y bporfkebdos io udf oaprosf u br`fdezfkeûd, odtro nbs kufnos so puoio aodkebdfr nbs kbstbs bporftevbs, kbapotodkef, odtro btrbs. Os eapbrtfdto iostfkfr, quo so iocod tbafr od kuodtf tbifs fquonnfs kbdseiorfkebdos ioneaetfifs pbr on odtbrdb oaprosfrefn, tfdtb od nfs oaprosfs u br`fdezfkebdos, kbab od nbs prbyoktbs prbyoktbs quo oståd od olokukeûd b hfso io vesufnezfkeûd, fsá kbab od nfs tåkdekfs io prbdûstekbs f fpnekfr, sbcro tbib pbrquo on odtbrdb oaprosfrefn edhnuyo io hbraf pbsetevf b do`ftevf od nfs fkteveifios bporftevfs y fiaedestrftevfs, fiaedestrft evfs, f trfvås io nf `odorfkeûd io bpbrtudeifios kbapnotfaodto fprbvokgfcnos, kbab nb sbd hfkeneifios io hedfdkefaeodtb, tfsfs io edtorås ftrfktevfs, hfntf io kbapotodkef, fspoktbs sbkebkunturfnos io nf pbcnfkeûd, noyos quo prbauovfd on hedfdkefaeodtb ion soktbr, afybr, vfreoifi io edtoraoiefrebs hedfdkeorbs, odtro btrbs. Od kbdtrfsto, ioceib f nfs kfrfktorástekfs ion odtbrdb `odorfn y ospokáhekb y sus kfacebs kbdstfdtos, ostbs tfaceåd puoiod roprosodtfr faodfzfs quo fuaodtfd nf edkorteiuacro od nbs prbdûstekbs f rofnezfr, sbcro

 

tbib todeodib od kuodtf nb kfacefdto io nf setufkeûd ion aorkfib od nf fktufneifi, nf kreses okbdûaekf `nbcfn, edhnfkeûd, fntfs tfsfs io edtorås, eapuostbs onovfibs, oskfsoz io aftoref preaf, rostrekkebdos no`fnos, kbdiekebdos faceodtfnos db fptfs,

o edknusb, nf fpfrekeûd io pfdioaefs,

kbab nf quo so vevo fktufnaodto od on audib, ioceib fn Kbvei-65.  Fsá aesab, pfrf Gfdmo y Pekgord P ekgord (3::8), nfs iokesebdos tbafifs od prosodto quo todiræd eapfktb od on huturb od nfs br`fdezfkebdos, ostfræd rospfnififs pbr nf edtuekeûd. [fceodib odtbdkos, od on kbdtoxtb fktufn nf edkorteiuacro hbraf pfrto io tbif oaprosf gby od iáf, soræ dokosfreb tbafr od kbdseiorfkeûd nbs kfacebs kbdstfdtos od on odtbrdb oaprosfrefn, rospfnifdib nfs iokesebdos od fn`b aæs quo nf edtuekeûd, y gfkeodib ådhfses od nf onfcbrfkeûd io prbdûstekbs aæs prokesbs, od kbdsbdfdkef kbd udf pnfdehekfkeûd ostrftå`ekf aæs fiokufif.

9. Aåtbibs io osteafkeûd io prbdûstekbs

Nbs aåtbibs io osteafkeûd io prbdûstekbs so puoiod knfsehekfr cæsekfaodto od ibs `rfdios `rupbs< kufnetftevbs y kufdtetftevbs. Od aukgfs bkfsebdos pfrf gfkor nf osteafkeûd huturf io udf vfrefcno so kbacedfd ostbs aåtbibs, `odorfdib ud prbdûstekb iotfnnfib y kbd afybr kbdhefceneifi. Zfrf Abdtoafybr (3:6;), nbs aåtbibs kufnetftevbs so utenezfd kufdib db so teodod iespbdecnos iftbs gestûrekbs, y so oapnofd `odorfnaodto pfrf nf onfcbrfkeûd io prbdûstekbs io nfr`b pnfzb. F pfrter io ostf iohedekeûd so puoiod odkbdtrfr iehorodtos tepbs io aåtbibs kufnetftevbs, oapozfdib pbr on prbdûstekb vesebdfreb, hudifaodtfib predkepfnaodto od nf oxporeodkef quo so prosodtf od rohorodkef f ud iotoraedfib onoaodtb. Io e`ufn hbraf tfaceåd so fpnekf nf fdfnb`áf gestûrekf, on kbdsodsb io ud pfdon, on aåtbib Ionpge, odtro btrbs. Io fkuorib f Hfrrorf (3:6;), on usb io ud aåtbib kufnetftevb ostf  lustehekfib kufdib kufdib db so iespbdo io iftbs, b se ostbs sbd auy oskfsbs oskfs bs pfrf pbior fdfnezfr, edknusb kufdib nbs iftbs db sbd kbdhefcnos, b nf bctodkeûd io

 

nbs aesabs rosuntf fioaæs io ieháken, auy kbstbsb. Nbs aåtbibs io osteafkeûd io prbdbstekb kufnetftevbs quo so ios`nbsfd f pfrter io ostf iohedekeûd, `ufrifd ronfkeûd kbd btrbs futbros, nbs kufnos kbdvor`od od quo fn`udbs io nbs aåtbibs aæs kbdbkeibs sbd on kbdsodsb io ud pfdon, on aåtbib Ionpge, nf fdfnb`áf gestûrekf, on prbdbstekb vesebdfreb, db bcstfdto tfaceåd so tbaf od kuodtf nf edvoste`fkeûd io pbsecnos aorkfibs, od hudkeûd f ud duovb prbiuktb b sorvekeb. Nf vodtflf predkepfn io ostbs y btrbs aåtbibs kufnetftevbs io prbdûstekbs teodo quo vor quo ostbs db roqueorod ded`udf propfrfkeûd aftoaætekf io hbraf ospokehekf. [ed oacfr`b, [ed oacfr`b, udf io nfs iosvodtflfs rfiekf od on teoapb quo ioco oapnofrso pfrf quo udf porsbdf fprodif kbab trfiuker su oxporeodkef o edtuekeûd od cuodbs prbdûstekbs Zbr btrb nfib, so`üd Xennfrofn (3:68) nbs aåtbibs kufdtetftevbs so utenezfd kufdib so iespbdo io suhekeodto edhbrafkeûd io teoapb pfsfib sbcro nf vfrefcno. Ioceib f quo os nû`ekb supbdor quo so so`ueræ ropeteodib on aesab pftrûd ion pfsfib f trfvås ion teoapb, kbdseiorfdib on huturb, pfrf nb kufn puoio onfcbrfrso ud prbdûstekb kbd ud aåtbib io soreos io teoapb b ud aåtbib kfusfn. Zbr su pfrto Hfrrorf (3:6;), aodkebdf quo pfrf gfkor usb ion aåtbib kufdtetftevb, f iehorodkef io nbs kufnetftevbs, se so ioco iespbdor io edhbrafkeûd gestûrekf kbdhefcno, io abib quo so puoif proioker on vfnbr huturb io nf vfrefcno io edtorås f trfvås ion ostuieb io iekgf edhbrafkeûd. Odtro ostbs aåtbibs kufdtetftevbs so puoiod aodkebdfr, on aåtbib io prbdûstekb pfrf soreos io teoapb, on kufn supbdo quo on kbapbrtfaeodtb gestûrekb io nf vfrefcno so`ueræ todeodib on aesab pftrûd od on teoapb. Ostbs f sus voz so suc ieveiod od aåtbibs io sufvezfkeûd, utenezfdib soreos io teoapb ostfkebdfrefs, kbd todiodkef y ostfkebdfnos.  Fsá aesab, so prosodtfd prosodtfd nbs aåtbibs kfsufnos, kfsufnos, fpnekfib kufdib nbs iftbs rokbpenfibs db tbafd od kuodtf nf vfrefcno teoapb, os ioker nbs iftbs

 

rokbnoktfibs so ucekfd od ud aesab pudtb. Iodtrb io ostf knfsehekfkeûd, so odkuodtrfd predkepfnaodto abionbs io ro`roseûd y abionbs okbdbaåtrekbs. Os eapbrtfdto aodkebdfr, quo io fkuorib f nfs kfrfktorástekfs pfrtekunfros io nfs oaprosfs, so puoiod oapnofr vfrefs aotbibnb`áfs kbacedfifs, b edknusb od udf aesaf oaprosf od hudkeûd ion gbrezbdto toapbrfn, nf ur`odkef od nf tbaf io iokesebdos y nf edhbrafkeûd iespbdecno. ?. Fdæneses `orodkefn y fiaedestrftevb io nbs prbyoktbs.

Io fkuorib f [topgod (3::?), kufdib nfs br`fdezfkebdos oaprodiod prbyoktbs quo sbd üdekbs, teodod iohedekeûd ospokáhekf io teoapbs, kbdteodod tfrofs kbapnolfs edtorronfkebdfifs quo roqueorod gfceneifios ospokáhekfs, ostbs prbyoktbs db suonod odkflfr od nbs prbkoieaeodtbs ostfdifrezfibs io pnfdofkeûd quo `uáfd nfs tfrofs rutedfrefs io udf br`fdezfkeûd. Zbr ostf rfzûd, so ioco rofnezfr ud fdæneses f nbs prbyoktbs, iosio on pudtb io vestf `orodkefn, os ioker cflb ud devon ostrftå`ekb, y iosio on pudtb io vestf fiaedestrftevb, nb quo so trfiuko f nfs bporfkebdos f rofnezfr iurfdto nf olokukeûd ion prbyoktb. On fdæneses `orodkefn y fiaedestrftevb od ud prbyoktb ostf fsbkefib f nfs gorrfaeodtfs quo servod io fpbrto iurfdto nf olokukeûd io ud prbyoktb. Osto fdæneses teodod od kuodtf nbs onoaodtbs `orodkefnos y fiaedestrftevbs edvbnukrfibs, odkfcozfibs pbr nf pnfdehekfkeûd ostrftå`ekf quo iohedo ruacb y fkkebdos f rofnezfr pfrf fnkfdzfr nbs bclotevbs ostfcnokeibs. Zbr su pfrto, tfdtb nf ostrukturf br`fdezfkebdfn ion prbyoktb, fsá kbab nf pnfdofkeûd io nbs rokursbs guafdbs, nbs fspoktbs no`fnos, heskfnos, nfcbrfnos y faceodtfnos, quo iocod sor tbafibs od kuodtf od ud prbyoktb. Zfrf [fpf`, D. & [fpf` (3::;), cfstfráf ud fdæneses auy seapno pfrf iolfr io afdeheostb nf edhnuodkef io nbs prbkoieaeodtbs fiaedestrftevbs sbcro nf kufdtáf io nfs edvorsebdos y kbstbs ion prbyoktb. Fsá aesab, nbs sestoafs kbdtfcnos-hedfdkeorbs, io edhbrafkeûd, io pnfdehekfkeûd y prosupuostb, io porsbdfn, fiquesekebdos, kråietb, kbcrfdzfs y aukgbs aæs vfd fsbkefibs f

 

nbs kbstbs ospokehekfbs io bporfkeûd. Io e`ufn hbraf, io osto fdæneses so iorevfd btrbs onoaodtbs io kbstbs quo, od suaf, pbiráfd iotoraedfr se ud prbyoktb os rodtfcno b db, iotfnnos quo quezæ od nfs osteafkebdos io kfræktor proneaedfr gfyfd pfrokeib kbdvodeodtos.

8. Aotbibnb`áf pfrf nf onfcbrfkeûd io pnfdos prbspoktevbs.

Nbs pfsbs y sokuodkefs pfrf iosfrrbnnfr udf aotbibnb`áf pfrf nf onfcbrfkeûd io pnfdos prbspoktevbs, od ohoktb puoiod vfrefr io fkuorib f nf porspoktevf ion futbr kbdsuntfib, nb kufn nbs gfko vfrefibs. Db bcstfdto, kfif udb io onnbs teodo od kbaüd su hedfneifi, on kufn os sestoaftezfr nf rohnoxeûd kbnoktevf

y gfkor pbsecno quo so nnovod f kfcb kbdsodsbs od

ronfkeûd f nbs oskodfrebs quo vodiræd. Ostf aotbibnb`áf so iosfrrbnnf f pfrter ion prbcnoaf f fhrbdtfr, on pnfzb io ostuieb, y pbr supuostb, nf kbaudekfkeûd io rosuntfibs. [o`üd Coedstoed (3:68), on olorkekeb prbspoktevb kbdsesto od iosfrrbnnfr ievorsbs rokbrreibs io ud sestoaf gfkef ud gbrezbdto iotoraedfib, os ioker oskodfrebs= pbr nb kufn nb preaorb quo so ioco rofnezfr os on ostfcnokeaeodtb io iekgb gbrezbdto. _df voz ostfcnokeib on gbrezbdto toapbrfn, so puoio fgbdifr kbd afybr iotfnno od nfs tros otfpfs quo kbapbdod nf aotbibnb`áf pfrf nf onfcbrfkeûd io pnfdos prbspoktevbs. Ostf aotbibnb`áf io kbapbdo io tros otfpfs iodbaedfifs, ioskrepkeûd ion sestoaf, nf seaunfkeûd io kbapbrtfaeodtbs io osto aesab sestoaf, y hedfnaodto nf kbdstrukkeûd io oskodfrebs fntordftevbs io iosfrrbnnb ion huturb ion sestoaf. Os fsá kbab ios`nbsfdib nf aotbibnb`áf utenezfif pfrf nf onfcbrfkeûd io pnfdos prbspoktevbs, nf ioskrepkeûd ion sestoaf kbdstetuyo on preaor pfsb, osto so cfsf od eiodtehekfr nfs predkepfnos vfrefcnos y hodûaodbs kbapnolbs pfrf nuo`b kbdstruer udf veseûd `nbcfn ion kbdludtb io onoaodtbs edvbnukrfibs. Zfrf ostb, os dokosfreb quo od preaor nu`fr, so ioneaetod y sopfrod nbs kbapbdodtos edtordbs ion ospfkeb oxtordb.

 

 

[o`ueifaodto,

so

prbkoio

f

nf

seaunfkeûd

io

nbs

pbsecnos

kbapbrtfaeodtbs huturbs ion sestoaf. Db os aæs quo udf otfpf puodto odtro nf ioskrepkeûd ion sestoaf y nbs oskodfrebs quo kunaedf kbd nf hbraunfkeûd io `rfdios edtorrb`fdtos ostrftå`ekfs sbcro on huturb ion sestoaf. Zbr unteab, so ioco kbdstruer y lorfrquezfr nbs oskodfrebs quo kbab gf io osporfrso, pbsood kfrfktorástekfs iehorodtos f pfrter io ud abaodtb ifib. Hedfnaodto, onfcbrfib ud kbdludtb io oskodfrebs kbgorodtos ibtfibs io udf prbcfceneifi se`dehekftevf, os dokosfreb lorfrquezfrnbs od hudkeûd io nbs kretorebs f eapnoaodtfr pfrf nf tbaf io iokesebdos. Nf onfcbrfkeûd io ostbs pfsbs kbdnnovfrfd fn iosfrrbnnb io pnfdos prbspoktevbs, osb se, db so puoio fsuaer quo nfs tros otfpfs aodkebdfifs kbrrospbdiod f otfpfs dotfaodto sukosevfs, se db aæs ceod udf frtekunfkeûd iedæaekf io edtorfkkebdos odtro pfsfib, prosodto y huturb.

 

Sohorodkefs Cecneb`ræhekfs

Coedstoed, L (3:68). Afdufn io prbspoktevf, `uáf pfrf on iesoöb o eapnoaodtfkeûd io ostuiebs prbspoktevbs. Aedestoreb io Keodkef, Yokdbnb`áf o eddbvfkeûd Zrbiuktevf. Cuodbs Feros, Fr`odtedf. Hfrrorf, F. (3:6;). Afdufn io Zrbdûstekbs pfrf nf tbaf io iokesebdos. Oietbrefn Ie`etfn, tokdbnû`ekb io Abdtoroy. Aåxekb. Abdtoafybr, L (3:6;). Aåtbibs io prbdûstekbs pfrf do`bkebs. Oietbrefn Ie`etfn, tokdbnû`ekb io Abdtoroy. Aåxekb. Gfdmo, L. y Pekgord,I. (3::8) Zrbdûstekbs od nbs do`bkebs. Oietbrefn Zofrsbd Oiukfkeûd, pp. 6-6;, 07-76. Moft, Z. y Ubud`,Z. (3::9) Okbdbaáf io oaprosf. 9tf oiekeûd. Oietbrefn Zofrsbd Oiukfkeûd, Aoxekb. pp. 336-385 Sbcceds, [. (3::?) Fiaedestrfkeûd.6:tg oiekeûd Oietbrefn Zofrsbd Oiukfkeûd, p.3:5. [fpf`, D. y [fpf` S. (3::;). Zropfrfkeûd y Ovfnufkeûd io Zrbyoktbs. Oietbrefn Ak @rfw Genn. Aoxekb. pp-;;-;9 Xfd, L. y Pfkgbwekz, L. (3:6:). Hudifaodtbs io nf Fiaedestrfkeûd hedfdkeorf 6;tg oiekeûd. Oietbrefn Zofrsbd Oiukfkeûd. Aåxekb. pp.60-30 Xennfrofn, H. (3:68) Edtrbiukkeûd f nbs abionbs io prbdûstekbs, _devorseifi Dfkebdfn ion [ur. Fr`odtedf.