2.7 Pronósticos Basados en Factores de Tendencia y Estacionales

 

5.4 [rbj÷stcgbs ensnmbs aj `ngtbras ma ]ajmajgcn y astngcbjnhas. Fntarcn?  Astnmæstcgn Cj`arajgcnh 5 [rb`asbr?  UNFBJ LQC[NW DNUGCN Jbfera ma hn ngtcvcmnm?  cjvastcdngc÷j Jbfera mah astumcnjta? Nrcnjn Fnræn Jcaehns Pchhadns Jufarb ma gbjtrbh? >30;;5>= @agln? ;7/;4/5;5>

@uajta ma cj`brfngc÷j? 

lttps?//pm`gb``aa.gbf/54-prbjbstcgbs-ensnmbs-aj-`ngtbras-ma-tajmajgcn-y-astngcbjnhas-5pm`-`raa.ltfh

 

5.4

[UBJ×W]CGBW

ENWNMBW

AJ

@NG]BUAW

MA

]AJMAJGCN

S

AW]NGCBJNHAW Cjtrbmuggc÷j , gbjscsta aj drn`cgnr hbs mntbs y besarvnr sus tajmajgcns aj ah tcafpb. [rcfarb maea matarf tcafpb. matarfcjnrsa cjnrsa sc pnraga lnear uj fbvcf fbvcfcajtb cajtb lngcn nrrcen b lngcn nenob n hnrdb phnzb aj hn sarca (ujn tajmajgcn) b sc hn sarca pnraga bsgchnr  nhramambr ma ujn ragtn lbrczbjtnh aj ah tcafpb. Aj asta gnsb (as magcr, jb lny tajmajgcn pbsctcvn b jadntcvn n hnrdb phnzb. Hbs fãtbmbs qua puamaj afphanrsa sbj? pnrn

sunvcznr

juastrbs

mntbs

usunhfajta

n) Ah fãtbmb ma prbfamcbs f÷vchas Ah fãtbmb ma prbj÷stcgb f÷vch sa utchczn gunjmb sa qucara mnr fîs cfpbrtnjgcn n gbjoujtbs ma mntbs fîs ragcajtas pnrn betajar hn pravcsc÷j. Gnmn pujtb ma ujn famcn f÷vch ma ujn sarca tafpbrnh as hn famcn nrctfãtcgn ma uj jÿfarb ma pujtbs gbjsagutcvbs ma hn sarca, mbjma ah jÿfarb ma pujtbs as ahadcmb ma tnh fnjarn qua hbs a`agtbs astngcbjnhas y / b crraduhnras sanj ahcfcjnmbs. ²Guîjmb utchcznr uj prbj÷stcgb ma prbfamcb f÷vch2 Ah prbj÷stcgb ma prbfamcb f÷vch as ÷ptcfb pnrn pntrbjas ma mafnjmn nhantbrcn b jcvahnmn mbjma sa pratajma ahcfcjnr ah cfpngtb ma hbs ahafajtbs crraduhnras lcst÷r ÷rccgbs

famcnjta

uj

aj` j`b bqua

aj

par arææbm bmb bs

ma

mafnj njm mn

raggcajta. ra

e) Ah fã fãtb tbmb mb ma su sunv nvcz czng ngc÷ c÷j j ax axpb pbja jajg jgcn cnhh Aj ah fãtb fãtbmb mb ma su sunv nvcz czng ngc÷ c÷j j b sunvcznfcajt sunvczn fcajtb b axpbjajgcnh sa gnhguhn ah prbfam prbfamcb cb ma ujn sarca ma tcafp tcafpb b gbj uj fagnjcsfb ma nutbgbrraggc÷j qua eusgn noustnr hbs prbj÷stcgbs aj mcraggc÷j bpuas bp uastn tn n hns ma masv svcn cngc gcbj bjas as ma mahh pn pnsn snmb mb fa famc mcnj njta ta uj ujn n gbr gbrrag raggc gc÷j ÷j qu qua a sa va n`ag n` agtn tnmn mn pb pbrr uj gb gba` a`cg cgca cajt jta a ma su sunv nvcz czng ngc÷ c÷j. j. Ns Nsææ aj ajtb tbjg jgas, as, ast asta a fb fbma mahb hb ma prbj÷stcgb pragcsn tnj s÷hb ma tras tcpbs ma mntbs? ah prbj÷stcgb mah ÿhtcfb paræbmb, hn

mafnjmn

mah

ÿhtcfb

paræbmb

y

ah

gba`cgcajta

ma

sunvczngc÷j.

²Guîjmb utchcznr utchcznr uj prbj÷stcgb ma sunvcz sunvczngc÷j ngc÷j axpbjajgcnh axpbjajgcnh scfph scfpha2 a2 Ah prbj÷stcgb ma sunvczngc÷j axpbjajgcnh as ÷ptcfb pnrn pntrbjas ma mafnjmn nhantbrcbs b

 

jcvahnmbs mbjma sa pratajma ahcfcjnr ah cfpngtb ma hbs ahafajtbs crraduhnras lcst÷rcgbs famcnjta uj aj`bqua aj paræbmbs ma mafnjmn ragcajta, asta pbsaa ujn vajtnon vajtno n sbera ah fbmahb ma prbfamcb f÷vch pbjmarnmb pbjmarnmb yn qua jb raquca raqucara ra ma ujn drnj gnjtcmnm ma paræbmbs y ma pbjmarngcbjas pnrn hbdrnr ÷ptcfbs rasuhtnmbs.   Gbjghusc÷j Ah beoatcvb ma nfebs fãtbmbs as ah ma ‘afpnraonr‖ hn sarca y



prbpbrgcbjnr uj pnjbrnfn dhbenh n hnrdb phnzb. [br btrb hnmb, sc ma laglb axcsta ujn tajmajgcn, sa puamaj nphcgnr vnrcbs fãtbmbs ma prbj÷stcgb ma sarcas ma tcafpb nh fnjaonr mntbs njunhas, y btrb fãtbmb pnrn hbs mntbs ma sarcas ma tcafpb fajsunh b trcfastrnh.