Analyst Meeting Q4 and FY 2011
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 20 12 Ou Outl tloo ook k PTT Group Stress Test
1
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 20 12 Ou Outl tloo ook k PTT Group Stress Test
1
2011 Highlights
Economy • European Financial turmoil leading to credit rating downgrade in Italy, Spain, and other 7
European countries –
•
shown • Lower Chinese demand from tight monetary policy, however, increasingly gloomy global outlook
and slower growth forced China to start easing monetary policy in December • NESDB estimated that devastating flood led to contracting Thai economy by 9.0% in Q4/2011
and FY 2011 growth only at 0.1%
Operations • Flood caused NG sales volume to decrease by 7.7% QoQ, while only 1% effect in oil business • Yetagun closed to install compressor platform lead to lower NGV supply • Gradually increasing NGV retail price structure implemented since January 16, 2012 •
resume opera on rom warran y s u
own n
• Improvement of coal sales volume from 2.5 to 3.1 MTon MTon in Q4/2011
2
2011 201 1 – Yea Yearr of Rec Record ord Pro Profit fit Unit : THB Billion 2,428 2,001
Revenue 386
400
1,214 490
1,586
1,508
Record Year
1,898
• Increasing sales volume from ESP, GSP6, Ethane cracker (PTTPE)
~ ~USD 60 bn
645
• Stock gain as crude oil price
~USD 10 bn
Effective BCM Net Income 85.5 . 37.6 21.6 24.5
95.5 97.8 55%
62%
59%
59%
81%
50%
41%
2001
2002
2003
2004
84.0 51.7 37%
50%
36% 64%
105.3
ec ve us ness on nu y Management lead to minimal impact from flood in Q4/2011
55%
.
Affiliates
57% 58%
45% PTT
45%
Group-wide Stress Test to prepare for future uncertainties
42%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
3
Strong Contributions from All Businesses
Unit : THB Billion
+25%
Net Income
105.3 17.8
.
13.4
10.2
Petrochem +75%
Refinery +43%
Volume Drivers
9.4 30.6
+7%
28.7
47.8 36.1
Dividend
(THB/Share)
• Crude oil 106 $/BBL (+40%) • Accounting GRM 6.08 $/BBL (+26%) • ‐ • Spread PX 647 $/Ton (+93%)
-0.4
-4.3
10.25
13.00
PTT +32%
Others
• Ethane cracker 1 MT MTA A (Q4/10) • HDPE 300 KT KTA A & LDPE 300 KT KTA A (Q1/11) • Bis‐Phenol‐A 150 KTA(Q2/11) • PP/PDH 300/310 KT KTA A (Q3/10, Q1/11) • TDAE 50 KT KTA A (Q1/11) • Oil Sands KKD 15,000 BOED (Q1/11) , ‐ • ESP 0.76 MT MTA A (Q3/10) • GSP 6 1.8 MT MTA A (Q1/11) • LNG Terminal capacity 5 MT MTA A (Q3/11)
4
2010-2011 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local
Asia Talent Management 10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011
7th
Top Asia Energy Companies of 2010 35th Top Global Energy Companies of 2010
Best CEO 2010 Best Managed Company 2010 Best Corporate Governance 2010 Best Investor Relations 2010 Best Cor orate Social Responsibility 2010 Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2010
SET Awards • Top Corporate Governance Report Award 2010 & 2011 • Best Corporate Social Responsibility Awards 2011
128t Fortune Global 500 of 2011 - 155th in 2010 - 118th in 2009
Asian Corporate Director
• • • •
Asia’s Best CEO Asia’s Best CFO Best IR Website/Promotion Best Environmental Res onsibilit • Best Investor Relations • Best Investor Relations Professional
Trusted Brand 2011 • Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award for Service Station
171t The Biggest Listed Companies in the World 2011 -196th in 2010 -244th in 2009
Thai BMA Best Bond Awards
Dow Jones Sustainability Index # 17
The winners of The Asset’s
• Deal of the Year • Most Creative Issue • Best Investor Relations Issuer
Board of the year Award 2010/11
Best CEO for Ener
Sector 2011
Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2010 • Best State Enterprise of the Year, Best of the Best • Outstanding Leadership • Outstanding Innovation
5
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
6
Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%) E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
PetChem
Net Income (100%
Product Prices Unit: MMUSD 101.7
102.2
102.7
Liquid (USD/BBL)
73.8 55.4
61.3
55.5 44.8
1,380
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
96%
489 5.91
6.64
.
6.00
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
2011
Unit: KBOED 5%
0.2%
as Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
QoQ • Sales volume dropped from floo North Bon kot MTJDA B-17 whilst sales price sharply incre
Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Target Sales Volume
PetChem
Coal
Proved Reserves
Unit: KBOED
Total 969 MMBOE
16%
330
7%
Refining
345
326
Overseas 324
284 265
North America Middle East & Africa South East Asia
56%
44%
Domestic Thailand
Policy Reserves Replacement Ratio 2011 2011 CF
2012 2012
BKT South, Montara
2013 2013
Zawtika
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
Reserve Life Index (year)
1.10 > 1 9
Algeria
8
Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
NG Sales Volume Unit: MMSCFD
2011
4,330
4,145 4,055
4,152
3,802
2009
4,249
3,280
3,606
Q1
Q2
3,677
Q3
4,249
AVG.
4,148 3,919
3,686
Unit: MMTHB
4,161
32%
4 040
62,195 47,212
3,562
16,832
Q4
Q3/11
3,919
4,040
237 559 860 430
Q3/11
Q4/11
4,161 246
NGV (6%)
867
GSP (21%)
486
SPP (12%)
866
IPP (21%)
1,146 EGAT (27%)
1,070
2010
2011
41%
9,880 Q4/11
2010
2011
Key Activities
3% 8%
Coal
Gas BU EBITDA
NG Customer Profile Unit: MMSCFD
PetChem
QoQ • NG sales volume declined in all customers as a result of flood except sales volume to GSPs increased due to the resumption of ESP & GSP 6 • Higher average gas cost from price adjustment
•
NG sales volume slightly increased due to gas leakage and flood 9
Gas Business Performance: GSPs & NGV E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
Unit : MMTHB
Unit : USD/Ton
869 333
Coal
NGV EBIT Loss
GSP - Reference Product Prices 1,606 1,399
PetChem
PP
1,423 1,329 1,340 1,222 805 333
1,585 1,364 HDPE
- , 853
Naphtha
333
Domestic LPG
660 333
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
2011
-3,259 3%
-7,323 -
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
44%
2011
Key Activities
GSP Sales Volume Unit : KTon
36%
5,820 4,289
,
1,798 Ethane (31%) 647
9%
1 154 500 167
712
Q3/11
Q4/11
NGL (11%)
2,833 LPG (49%)
467
2010
,
2011
QoQ • GSPs sales volume increased mainly due to the resumption of GSP 6 and ESP YoY • GSP volume increased by 36% from COD of ESP in July 2010, and GSP 6 in Jan 2011 • NGV price increased by 0.50 Baht/Kg a month starting from Jan 16, 2012 10
Gas Business Roadmap E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
PetChem
Coal
Unit : MMSCFD 6,000
7% 4,000
2,000
6% 13%
New
PTTLNG Chevron (Plathong)
Pipeline
NGV Industry
18%
GSP
59%
60%
2011
7% 16%
2012
2013
PTTEP (Bongkot South)
Offshore Com ressor
2014
2015
2016
Power - EGAT - IPP - SPP
PTTEP (M9)
4th Onshore
(MMSCFD)
4,380
5,580
6,980
6,980
6,980
6,980
Capacity (MTA)
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
11
Oil Business Performance : PTT E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
Contribution Margin*
PetChem
Oil BU - EBITDA 9%
Unit : MMTHB
Unit : THB/Liter
12,126 .
0.72
0.77
Coal
.
13,224 11,973
11%
Oil
3,236
2,874 2,583
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
Q3/11
* Exclude non–oil business
Sales Volume Unit : MM Liter
21,807
2%
, Q3/11
,
Q4/11
2010
Q4/11
2010
Non-Oil
2011
Key Activities 5%
20,762
1,251
291
2011
2011
QoQ • Sales volume returned to normal in Q4 after more FO import in Q3 to compensate gas leakage YoY • Sales volume increased due to the increase in domestic demand and fuel oil demand during gas leakage • PTT stations 1,326 (+6 stations from Q3) • Café Amazon 634 branches (+29 branches) 12
International Trading Business Performance : PTT E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
Contribution Margin
PetChem
Trading BU - EBITDA*
Unit :THB/Liter
Unit : MMTHB
0.04
0.04
Coal
1%
0.04
2,188
2,209
2010
2011
0.03 612
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
Q3/11
2011
54%
Q4/11
* PTT Only
Sales Volume Unit : MM Liter
Key Activities 2%
60,256
59,145
• •
15%
,
QoQ
,
IRPC Contribution margin slightly decreased due to the decrease in condensate margin
YoY
• Lower sales volume, specially crude volume,
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
2011
due to schedule shutdown of affiliate refineries
13
Refining Business Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
GRM/GIM Unit : USD/BBL
9.40
5.90 4.66 3.25
Q3/11
4.82
Q4/11
Unit : MMTHB
A/C GIM 6.08 A/C
3.85 3.40
4.53
GRM
Mkt GRM
SPRC 65%
85%
90%
89%
704
Q3/11
Q4/11
TOP 2010
2011
652
686
684
QoQ
100% • Market GRM decreased following European debt
900
800
1,396
Key Activities
Unit : KBD 93%
3,935 2011
Total Intake Aggregated .
BCP
23,414
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
1000
39%
32,455
3.81
2010
Coal
Net Income (100%)
7.37 6.87
PetChem
700
BCP IRPC
600
500
crisis • For Aromatics, PX spread margin dropped due to the 50%resumption of PX plants
400
300
TOP
200
100
0
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
2011
• Market GRM improved from higher demand due to global economy recovered ‐50% • Higher stock gain due to crude oil price surged
14
Refining Business Roadmap E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
2012
2013
Refining 2014
PetChem 2015
Coal 2016
.
• PX 100 KTA • BZ 100 KTA Ethanol UBE 400 KLiter/day
Refining Cap. 275 Kbpd PX 489 KTA MX 90 KTA BZ 177 KTA Tol 144 KTA PTT 38.51% Refining Cap. 215 Kbpd Aromatic 367 KTA Olefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA
Phase I & II PSA & HVU revamp
Derivatives • LAB 100 KTA
110 MW
Propylene Booster • Propylene
ABS/SAN Expansion • 61 KTA
PP Compound and Specialties 100 KTA
Propylene 320 KTA
Ph I 38 MW
Unit
Ph III 48 MW
Catalytic Reforming Unit (CCR) 12 KBD
110 MW
. Bangchak Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd
Solar Power Plant Ph II 32 MW
Cogeneration ower an 15 MW
Ethanol UBE 400 KLiter/day Palm Plantation 3,300 Rais Expansion project
15
Petrochemical Business Performance E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
Spread Margins Unit : USD/Ton HDPE-Naphtha
Unit : MMTHB PX-Naphtha
37,086
93%
Others HMC Polymers
,
554
511
47%
443
429
8,325
335
Q3/11 3/11
4/11 2010
3/11
2011
4/11 2010
2011
Sales Volume 89%
88% 90%
86%
23%
1,550 1,264 12%
PTT Phenol PTTGC
222
196
Q3/11*
Q4/11*
2010
4,449 Q4/11
PTTGC 2010
2011
Note : PTTGC- Pro-forma income statement.
Key Activities
Unit : KTon Aggregated Util.
71%
647
638
13%
Coal
Net Income (100%)
13%
462
PetChem
2011
* PTTGC sales volume not available due to the merger of PTTCH & PTTAR during t he period
QoQ • Sales volume and average selling price dropped from lower demand following China’s tight monetary policy YoY • Sales volume increased from the commercial operations of • PTTGC’s Ethane Cracker 1 MTA in Dec 2010 • PTTGC’s HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 300 KTA in Q1/11 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PP/PDH 300/310 KTA in Q3/10 and Q1/11, respectively 16
Petrochemical Business Roadmap E&P
Gas 2012
Oil & Trading
Refining
2013
2014
PetChem 2015
Coal 2016
PTT 48.92% Refining Olefins roma cs Polymers Specialty
280 KTA 2,888 KTA , 1,590 KTA 826 KTA
NatureWorks 50% PLA 70 KTA Perstorp 51% TDI 125 KTA HDI 45 KTA
PTT 40.00% Phenol Acetone BPA
Phenol Acetone
200 KTA 125 KTA 150 KTA
250 KTA 154 KTA
PTT 41.44% PP Propylene
750 KTA 310 KTA . AN MMA
200 KTA 70 KTA
. PBS
20 KTA
17
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.6%) E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Refining
Average SAR Selling Price
PetChem
Coal
Net Income (100%) Unit : MMUSD
Unit : USD/Ton
116%
190 100
97%
93
73
94
37
73
Q3/11
Q4/11
2010
2011
Q3/11
Sales Volume
Sebuku Jembayan
3 077
Q4/11
2010
2011
,
23%
Q3/11
2010
QoQ • Started production at Northern Lease, Sebuku • Higher average selling price from higher quality coal
0.1%
,
Q4/11
Ke Activities
Unit : KTon
10,712
88
2011
YoY • Sales volume maintained at same level as previous year, despite a collapse of the Kutai Kartenegara bridge that obstructed the coal transportation • Increased in average selling price following global coal price surged
18
Coal Mining Roadmap E&P
Gas
Oil & Trading
Target Production Volume
Refining
PetChem
Resources & Reserves Reserves 146 MMTon
Unit : MMTon
Sebuku
. 12.0
8.5
9.0
Coal
10.7
2%
Sebuku
10.7
Jembayan
Jembayan
Resources 1,505 MMTon Jembayan
40%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 E
2013 E 19
Sebuku
19
PTT Consolidated Performance : 2011 Dubai (USD/BBL)
78
106
Others
PTTEP Unit : MMTHB
28%
PTT - Gas
4% 6%
16%
2,428,165
Revenue
1,898,682
74%
Revenue
PTT - Oil & Trading 2010
2011
Others PTT - Oil & Trading 6%
24%
170 330
EBITDA
210,748
-
EBITDA 2010
8%
as
2011
2010
29.58
105,296
2011
36.91
‐4%
13%
17%
EPS (THB/Share)
PTTEP
Others Refining
83,992
56%
45% Net Income
PTT
29%
PTTEP
20
PTT Group Performance : 2011 Performance 100%
Unit : MMTHB PT T Company Only Less:
Dividend Received
2011
YoY
2010
2011
54,457
73,434
35%
54,457
73,434
18,316
24,275
33%
1,913
n.m.
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting PTT Net operating Income - PTTEP
Petro. Business
36,141
47,246
,
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC / PTTME/PTTTANK
Refining
,
71%
30,033
84%
,
23,405
36,141 .
37,086
16,320
18,316
31%
,
21,731 - PTTGC*
Equity Method % PTT
% share
2010
32,455
-
39%
33%
1,913
n.m.
31%
,
10,158 48.92%
35%
24,275
47,246
,
YoY
17,753
7,922
,
75%
14,465
83%
,
9,377
13,445
43%
- TOP
8,956
14,853
66%
49.10%
4,201
7,514
79%
- IRPC
6,100
4,107
-33%
38.51%
2,250
1,443
-36%
- SPRC
5,553
7,885
42%
36.00%
2,116
2,960
40%
- BCP
2,796
5,610
101%
27.22%
810
1,528
89%
Others Business
1,335 - PTTI group (PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE
-2,114
- ,
- ,
n.m.
-406
-
-4,276
- ,
- ,
n.m. -
Gas & Utilities
-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP
3,008
2,927
-3%
20-100%
1,783
933
-48%
Oil & Oth.
- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/ /PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo
1,250
1,881
50%
33-100%
733
1,713
134%
Shared of Net Income fr om Affiliates
Add
90,245
Gain (Loss) on sales of inves tments in A ssociate s
PTT Conso. Net Income *PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement
112,175 0
126,386
570
159,991
24%
47,851
n.m.
27%
57,480 0
83,992
570
105,296
20% n.m.
25%
21
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured
Unit: MMTHB
Increased assets : • • PTTLNG • WIP of 4th pipeline • Platform compression • 40% KKD Oil Sands
11.2
12.1
ICR
14%
1,402,412 1,229,109 Cash & S/T Invest
135,801
Other Current Assets
228,132
Others Noncurrent Assets
Treasury policy
116,132 265,025
,
Other Liabilities
300,666
368,515
371,029
419,914
,
496,661 557,414
1.3 Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
0.4
0.4 Net Debt/Equity
< 1.0
L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total
PP&E
1.4
601,341 643,949 Equity
− FC
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)
− LC
: Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec10
31 Dec 11
22
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
EPS
% Dividend Payout
DPS
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%
43.6% 40.4%
35.0% 35.2%
PTT’s minimum payout ratio 34.14 34.82
36.91
30.57 UNIT : Baht / share
29.26
22.40
21.06 18.33
13.43 7.71 8.75 2.50 2.85 2001
2002
.
2003
11.50 9.25 10.50 6.75
2004
2005
2006
2007
13.00 8.00 8.50
2008
2009
10.25
2010
2011
23
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
24
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 358 bn ($12bn) during 2012-2016
Unit: MMTHB
rea
85 484
81,513
55,492
41,279
Power 2% LNG 5% Coal 2%
Investment in Subsidiaries 50%
61,148
ears
By Business Unit
R&D JV & Investment in Subsidiaries Oil & Tradin Gas
91,467
own :
Gas 33%
Others 41%
,
26,880
38,384 R&D 3%
Oil & Trading 14%
23,134 27,163
31,831
35,812 16,653
2012
2013
2014
2015
7,611
2016
25
PTTEP: 2012-2016 CAPEX
Total Expenditures (2012-2016) = US$ 20 Billion**
OPEX = US$ 8 Billion
5,168 1,571
4,129
3,495* 1,397
,
1,174 1,473
3,479
3,553
1,522
1,747
1,957
1,806
3,597 2,732
2,321
2011
1,822
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
* Exclude KKD Oil Sands Acquisition cost of US$ 2.28 Billion ** Exclude expenditure for M&A opportunities
26
PTT Group CAPEX 2012 – 2016 ~ THB 900 BN*
• Biochemical • Specialty
R&D 2% 16% • Coal • Palm Oil • FLNG • Power
Other
Upstream – E&P
19%
• Thailand 54% • SE Asia 22% • North America 15% • Australasia 5% • ME & Africa 4%
Oil&Trading 6%
16% LPG facilities
• Onshore Pipeline • LNG Terminal • • Offshore Spur Lines
* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives
27
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
28
Economic Outlook : 2012
Positive • Fed planned to keep interest rate exceptional low until late 2014
Global
• US economic data indicates upward momentum
• Post- oo construction ea to increasing in domestic consumption and investment
Negative • Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz will cause supply disruption and crude oil price
• Greece debt may prolong and tend to be more severe possibly leading to contagion among EU community • Concern on repeating great flood •
• More stability of the government
amendment
29
Market Outlook
•
forecasted to grow 1.0 MMBPD, reaching 90.0 MMBPD, according to IEA’s report in January 2012. • Dubai crude oil price in 2012 is expected to be around US$ 100 -110 per barrel.
Supply disruption from Iran’s reaction to the sanction US economic data indicates upward momentum An increase in oil supply from the exporting countries The fragile European economic situation Source: IEA
30
Market Outlook
•
ngapore n s es ma e be at around US$ 6-7 per barrel
o
– A result of narrowed refining capacity surplus – Lower global petroleum products demand caused by economic slowdown.
– Restocking after Chinese new year and annual schedule shutdown USD/Ton
USD/Ton
–
versupp y an ower pe roc em ca pro uc s demand caused by economic slowdown
• Aromatics rice tends to be im roved – PX demand remains strong from the delay of new PX supply – The start u of new PTA lants – Lower demand caused by economic slowdown Source : DB, KBD, Reuters, FACTS, IEA (Jan’11), Thaioil, OIM and PIM
31
Contents
2011 Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook PTT Group Stress Test
32
PTT Group Financial Stress Test
Rationale
We are o eratin under VUCA* circumstances • European debt crisis • Double dip economy in the U.S •
Objectives
. es e res ence an manage company
e so vency o
e
. PTT’s health
Scope
* Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity
33
7-Step Approach
Build stress testing engine & capability
External scenarios
Transmission to industry
Build mitigation plan
Operate
▪
Maintain
Industry ecosystem
Iterate for mitigation plans
Transmission to company
Company risk model
Run model and measure impact
Monitor & Modify
– e scenar o t roug ea ng n cators – Stress scenarios to reflect the new uncertainties and changes to levels of macro-economic indicators in existing scenarios – Transmission mechanisms to reflect new linkages to industry an company
34
Stress Scenarios Business as usual
Signs of weakness
Stress
Impending crisis Recapitalization of bank balance sheets n progress Manufacturing and service sectors in contraction zone All countries cost of borrowing increased Deteriorating financial health of Italy
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪ ▪
union
▪
▪
▪
Thailand
▪
Decline in housing prices Inflation falls to lowest levels since march 2011
▪
pace Unemployment improves to 9%
▪
US
Today
Today
▪
▪
▪
Real estate transaction volume declined in Oct Trade surplus increased, but slowdown in exports in Today October M1 and M2 rowth remained on downward trend
▪
Orderl defaults of PIIGS Eurozone intact due to Focus on fiscal transfers as adjustment mec an sm Debt deleveraging increases pace, reducing capital availability Unemployment remains at 8-9% Consumer spending weakens Credit crunch from
Extreme stress ▪
Euro zone breakdown
▪
▪
▪
–NPA’s in real estate –Refinancing of past ▪
▪
Impact of flood affects GDP growth Thailand in Q1-2 , 2012, no Today industries relocate
▪
stimulus program Export decline due to develo ed world slowdown
The flood repeats in this year and FDI slows down as several industries move to other ASEAN countries
▪
Trade and FX imbalances: Deterioration of fiscal situation and increasing imbalances Further downgrade of US Social unrest in China due to rural and urban economic divide
On top of flood, Social and tensions and rise to civil unrest
35
Mitigation Plan to Ensure Resilience
Range of impact of stress Business as usual
A
Base case (from business plan 2012)
Actions to take before the stress scenario materializes
A B
Performance decline
B
Financial Health issue
No regret operational mitigation
C
Stress case
Monitor scenario through lead indicators; incorporate into investment approval decisions Operational mitigation: b1 Launch opex and capex excellence to achieve top quartile . . b3 Create a pre-emptive and contingency operational plan – Crisis plan for capacity optimization – Optimal hedging strategy
C Strate ic miti ation: c1 Prepare for divestments of non strategic assets
rss
c2 Review and prioritize capex c3 Review the trade off of early major additional debt or equity issuance 36
"ปตท. ตองแสวงหาพลั งงานให พอเพ ยง
และลงทนอ กมหาศาลกับพลั งงานใหม เพ ออนาคตของคนไทยทกคน "
การลงทน
เพ ออนาคต
สั งคมส งแวดลอม
PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail:
[email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Dec 2011 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Supply mport 848 KBD
Production Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBD Crude/ 794 KBD
Indigenous (20%) 207 KBD
Sales
Crude/ Condensate 175 KBD
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,099 KBD
omes c
Refined Products 919 KBD*
787 KBD PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Refined Products 189 KBD
(**)
Export
Other Refineries : 194 KBD (ESSO, RPC)
Crude Export 32 KBD Source: PTIT Remark :
221 KBD
(*)Refined product from refineries= 822 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 97 KBD (**) Not included Inventory KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
39
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2011 Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply
Production Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
Indigenous (78%) 3,253 MMSCFD
Others 40%
Chevron
28%
PTTEP 32%
867 MMSCFD (21%)
2,469 MMSCFD
6 GSPs Total Capacity 2,665 MMSCFD
LPG/NGL
Total 4,167 MMSCFD
Petrochemical Feedstock (14%) Industry ouse o Transportation (7%)
Methane 1,602 MMSCFD
Import (22%) 922 MMSCFD
Sales
Pipeline 784 MMSCFD
LNG 10%
Power (59%) Industr 14% NGV (6%)
922 MMSCFD Myanmar
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
40
Our Major Businesses & Activities Business Areas m a e r t p U
E&P
e t a i d
Activities
65.29%
Exploration and Production
100% 100% 100%
Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
• Oil Marketing
100%
Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading
100%
Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products
PTTGC
48.92%
Petrochemical Flagship
TOP
49.10%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC
38.51%
Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC
36.00%
Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP
27.22%
Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
PTT Inter
100%
Overseas investment arm of PTT :
• Gas Pipeline • S&M • GSP
ar e ng
s w e n e i N s u B
PTTEP
PTT’s holding (%)
PTT PLC
m r e t n I
m a r t s n w o D
Company
Int’l Trading
Petrochemical
International
PTT PLC
Coal, New energy and related businesses
41
PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy
PTT has the largest market cap on the SET SET Market Cap = Baht 9.3 trillion
PTTEP 6.6%
Others 75.8%
PTTGC 3.6%
PTT Group 24.2%
TOP 1.7% PTT 10.9%
100
BCP & Others 0.4%
118 128
Fortune Global 500 Ranking
Rev.of 100th company in Fortune Global 500 (Billion USD)
64.9
65.0
59.9
139
Vayupak
59.9
2009
Data as of 20 February 2012
68.1
46.2
2008
Need new initiatives
IRPC 1.0%
15%
2010
Revenue (Billion USD) Remark: * DJSI = Dow Jones Sustainability Index
2020
Public 34%
Ministry of Finance 51%
Data as of 9 September 2011
43
PTT Aspiration
company role in high returns (Technologically Advanced Green NOC)
HPO
To perform SOE role in public service
Economic
Sustainable Growth Social
CG
To perform energy company role in caring society & environment
Environmental
CSR
44
PTT Group Strategic Direction Investment priorities by geography and value chain Internationalization ASEAN
s a & l i O
n o i t a c i f i s r e v i D
Australia, N. Asia and S. Asia
Upstream
Expand production to 900 kbd
Midstream Upstream
Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain
P&R Upstream
internationalize chemical business
Retail
Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants
Middle NonEastAsia
Non- Asia Africa
NonAsia Europe
Non- Asia Americas
Support group inv.
Top oil and gas player
ra ng t y n r e t c s a u j d d n
Coal Upstream Power Upstream
/ Plantations y g r e n s E l a Alt. energy i n r e e t e r a Bio-business G m s r e h t O
Grow coal mining to large scale Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value c a n expans on, oppor un s c coa Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN Build Green business (ASEAN biohub)
Infrastructure
Strengthen inte rated hub (e.g. Gr. Marine)
Non-oil Retail
Explore opportunities in non-fuel retail
Priority 1
Energy conglomerate
Priority 2
Priority 3
conglomerate
b a se d on m a r k e t a t t r a c t i v e n e ss a n d p o t e n t i a l f o r PT T G r o u p t o b e d i s t i n c t i v e
45
Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010 (PTT Only) Operating
65,701
72,632
Net Income
54,457
73,434
Changes in assets & liabilities
18,636
4,263
-14,153
-9,655
6,625
4,087
136
503
Income Tax Non-Cash Adjustment Interest-net
Investing
-29,133
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset)
-18,925
-24,842
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates)
-8,335
-32,910
Dividend/Interest Received
22,123
30,588
-23,998
11,894
Others
Financing Free Cash flow 36,568
57,362
-15,270
-18,024
-67,380
Repayment Loans
-26,250
-32,786
Interest paid
-11,932
-12,628
Dividend paid
-33,447
-31,722
Received from share issue
3,185
1,698
Received from loans/Bonds
50,420
8,058
Adjust effect of FX -1
Beginning Cash and Cash 42,768
61,311
47
Ending Cash & Cash
Cash In Out 18,543
-9,971
61,311
51,341
46
46
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010 Operating Net Income
Income Tax Non-Cash Adjustment Interest - net
2010 155,902
2011 177,550
83,992
105,296
20,629
-289
-43,707
-42,074
94,890
113,386
99
1,231
2010 -123,126
Investing CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)
-105,916
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) Dividend/Interest Received Others
Financing Free Cash flow 32,776
17,096
epaymen
- ,
-112,525 -
,
10,623
15,644
-25,161
13,460
4,901 oans
2011 -160,454
-
,
-45,423 -
,
Interest paid
-14,718
-18,536
Dividend paid
-31,755
-41,103
Received from share issue
3,626
1,983
Received from loans/Bonds
99,200
48,517
Adjust effect of FX -5,909
Beginning Cash and Cash qu va en s 104,033
135,801
as 31,768
8,658
n
Ending Cash & Cash qu va en s
u -19,669
135,801
116,132
47
47
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Debt Portfolio Unit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life
~ 5.04 % ~ 90 % ~ 7.5 years
: Cost of debts : % fixed-rate : Avg. debt life
370,262
343 138 US D
~ 4.34 % ~ 82 % ~ 6.1 years
391,696
THB
266,185
257,443 63,979
(25%)
84,147
243,153
(25%)
(75%)
31 De c 09
114,442
(31%)
229,606
68,308
(26%)
72,337
(30%)
258,991 193,454
197,877
(74%)
31 De c 10
(75%)
255,860
(69%)
170,816
162,090
(70%)
31 De c 11
(59%)
31 De c 09
31 De c 10
31 De c 11
Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2011 (THB/USD = 31.8319 THB/JPY = 0.4124 ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
48
PTT Consolidated Performance : Q4/11 Dubai (USD/BBL)
107
107
Others
PTTEP 648,365
8%
PTT - Gas
595,366
4% 7%
16%
Revenue
PTT - Oil & Trading
Revenue Q3/11
Q4/11
Others PTT - Oil & Trading 9%
4%
52,866
50,975
EBITDA PTT - Gas 19%
64%
PTTEP
EBITDA Q3/11
Q4/11
Others 21,599
23%
16,645
‐29%
Refining
6%
Net
63%
PTTEP
PetChem 15% Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Q3/11 7.57
Q4/11 5.83
46%
PTT
49
PTT Group Performance : Q4/11
Performance 100%
Unit : MMTHB
Q3/11
Q4/11
,
Less:
Dividend Received
,
Petro Business
-
Q4/11
,
,
QoQ -
-96%
13,182
493
-96%
5
919
n.m.
5
919
n.m.
,
-
,
7,450
15,150
103%
8,325
4,449
-47%
65.29%
,
-
5,176
10,433
102%
3,957
2,417
-39%
- PTTGC*
6,095
3,998
-34%
48.92%
3,006
2,083
-31%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC / PTTME/PTTTANK
2,230
451
-80%
40-48%
951
334
-65%
Refining Business
3,936 2,518
- TOP
-
-
1,395 1,862 - ,
-65% -26% n.m.
1,456 49.10% .
1,220 -
1,052 1,064
-28% -13%
-
- SPRC
991
1,167
18%
36.00%
339
446
32%
- BCP
604
561
-7%
27.22%
172
129
-25%
-106
Others Buiness Inter
3Q/11
493
, - PTTEP
QoQ
13,182
Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting
E&P
Equity Method % PTT
% share
- PTTI group PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG ,PTTGE
-4,484
4130%
-697
-4,869
n.m.
-445
-5,861
n.m.
100%
-445
-5,861
n.m.
Gas & Utilities
-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCA P/CHPP
853
169
-80%
20-100%
269
-125
-146%
Oil & Oth.
- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/ /PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo
-514
1,208
n.m.
33-100%
-521
1,117
n.m.
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates
PTT Conso. Net Income
19,605
16,510
-16%
9,892
9,033
-9%
31,312
24,122
-23%
21,599
16,645
-23%
*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement
50
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2011-2030) : Total : Power
mmscfd 6,000
~ 1% ~ 1%
: Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 2%
5,422 7%
5,000 6%
Industry
17%
GSP
18%
Power
58%
4,000 13%
3,000
1,970
2,000
21%
8% 15%
, 77%
60%
0
Source : PTT
51
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
KTOE
180,000
163,812 145,604 Nuclear 2%
160,000
126,588
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60 000 40,000 20,000
87 651 2% 13% 14%
106,263 Hydro/Import 4% Renewable 13% 3% 13% Coal/Lignite 14%
1% 6%
15%
14% 17%
14%
Natural Gas 38%
35%
33%
31%
29%
27%
33% 38%
32%
Oil
0
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010/ PTT team analysis 2011
52
Natural Gas Price Structure
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Customers
Sales Price Structure Gas Pool Price
+
Supply Margins
+
Pipeline Tariffs
Power Producers 60% .
: : IPP
21%
: SPP
12%
GSP
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
21.8 Bt/MMBtu
9.33% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
21% Petrochemicals Feedstocks ,
,
Reference to Naphtha market price
NGL Local Cooking Gas
Capped at 333 USD/ton
Export Cooking Gas
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Industry
13%
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
NGV
6%
Capped at 9.5 Baht/Kg*
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions * Government will increase NGV retail price Baht 0.50 /kg per month from January 16, 2012 until January 15, 2013
53
