2001 a World of Cities

A WORLD OF CITIES

A WORLD OF LIGHT AND DARK

200 MILLION PEOPLE

W

ith just under half of its population living in cities, the world is already urbanized. When measured in knowledge, attitude, aspiration, commercial sense, technology, travel and access to information, even the most rural societies on earth are, to one extent or another, woven into a global network of cities. Thus, the Songye people of the Congo produce masks and statues for purchase in Nairobi by the owner of a Milanese Africana shop. A Canadian rancher flies his own plane to Vancouver to meet a friend from San Francisco. A Brazilian placer miner uses his cell phone to monitor gold prices in London through a broker in São Paolo. A Kazakh folk singer places her music on the Internet in Alma Ata for downloading by a scholar in Shanghai. And a Peruvian expatriate in Perth responds with help to a call, again over the Internet, from the priest in a flooded village in Peru. The industrial revolution of the late 18th century began the current phase of globalization. In less than one hundred years, the steam engine, telegraph, telephone and elevator were conveying people, goods and ideas both horizontally and vertically at an unprecedented volume and velocity. Now, in less than another century, low-cost international air transport, digital telecommunication and liberalized trade have the global economy moving at “warp speed.” The focal point of global economic activity has invariably been the city, a place of deals and decisions, take-offs and landings - a place less concerned with the rhythms of nature, where everything can be

bought and sold, especially one’s ideas and labour. During the past two hundred years of global economic expansion, the collective population of the world’s cities grew from less than 30 million to 3 billion - from one in thirty of the earth’s inhabitants to every other person on earth. Now at the beginning of the new century and millennium, the planet hosts 19 cities with 10 million or more people; 22 cities with 5 to10 million people; 370 cities with 1 to 5 million people; and 433 cities with 0.5 to 1 million. Another 1.5 billion people live in urban areas of less than half a million people. The process of urbanization will continue well into the 21st century and, by 2030, over 60 percent of all people (4.9 billion out of 8.1 billion) will live in cities1. As isolated seats of power from which to govern rural holdings, cities were, throughout most of recorded history, exceedingly small islands in a vast ocean of rural culture and tradition. With the advent of the industrial age, humanity rapidly evolved into a citydwelling species that is intensely competitive but at the same time cooperative, specialized yet adaptable. Homo urbanus is identified by dense living patterns, a

6

Source: NOAA

1000 MILLION PEOPLE

tolerant acceptance of strangers, predictable behaviour based on agreed rules (but with lifestyle variations within the rules), access to great amounts of information and an almost total disconnection from the natural world. Urbanization in the twentieth century established a world network of competitive centres that set the physical reference points for today’s globalization. During the great rural-to-urban population shifts over the past half-century, cities became supermarkets for employment, incubators of technology, suppliers of social services and shelter, portals to the rest of the world, processors of agricultural produce, adders of manufactured value, centres of learning, and, above all, places to make money through trade, industry, finance, real estate and, of course, attendant crime and corruption. In today’s globalized world, cities no longer stand apart as islands. They are the nexus of commerce, gateways to the world in one direction and focus of their own hinterlands in the other. Tied together in a vast three-dimensional web of communication and transport, cities are concentrations of energy in a global force field, appearing fixed as concrete and steel. World cities in this urban millennium may be governed more by Quantum theory and Einsteinian relativity than by Newtonian physics and Euclidian geometry. As in quantum physics, simply

7

Two global views

200 MILLION PEOPLE

Demographic information is often provided on a national basis, but global environmental and other cross-disciplinary studies usually require data that are referenced by geographic coordinates, such as latitude and longitude, rather than by political or administrative units. In this Gridded Population of the World (GPW) data set, the distribution of human population is converted from national or sub-national units to a series of geo-referenced quadrilateral grids. Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN),Columbia University; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI);and World Resources Institute (WRI). 2000. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 2. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. Available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw

The Nighttime Lights of the World dataset was compiled from 6 months of nighttime orbits (October 1994 - March 1995) collected during the dark half of the lunar cycle. Each orbit was examined for clouds using the thermal infrared band. Areas affected by clouds were removed from consideration. A light filter selected pixels greater than 4 standard deviations above the local background (a 100 x 100 pixel area). The selected lights were counted (counts) and divided by the number of times it would have been possible to detect the light (number of cloud-free coverages). The resulting percentage values (0-100) were examined for noise from aurora, bad scan lines, lightning, magnetic anomalies, etc. The remaining pixels were separated into bands for lights, fires, gas flares, and boats. Source: Image and data processing were by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Geophysical Data Center. DMSP data were collected by US Air Force Weather Agency.

Shadley Lombard/Topham Picturepoint/UNEP

Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University

n nn n nnnn nnnnn n nn n nnnnnnnnnnnn n nnn n n n n n n n n n n n nn n n nn n

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In a real sense, the world is completely urbanized, as this force field has the power to connect all places

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and all people into a productive, constantly adapting unity.

observing the city can change it, as the political economy responds to public awareness and investor confidence. Almost meta-physically, with minimal regard to space, every place becomes every other place, because distance is measured in nano- and pico-seconds not just kilometres. Innovations and information arrive in waves washing over the whole planet at once, and cities scramble to gain the latest advantage - for as long as it lasts. In a real sense, the world is completely urbanized, as this force field has the power to connect all places and all people into a productive, constantly adapting unity. The picture on the preceding page illustrates this metaphor in an image of the inhabited world as chains and nets of intense light reflected into the nighttime skies. Most of the light is produced by the world’s cities and is an indicator of their accumulated productive strength - as primate, or single metropolitan agglomerations in some countries, hierarchies of places in others. In almost every country, the city’s share of national output is much higher than its share of the population. Lima, for example, has less

than 30 percent of Peru’s population but produces over 40 percent of its national output. Bangkok, in an even more dramatic example produces nearly 40 percent of Thailand’s output with just over 12 percent of its population, nearly the same ratio of production to population as São Paolo, Brazil.2 Cities are the generators of national development, which invariably starts with migration. Opportunity is the attractor. The rural poor, the attracted. In an urbanizing world, cities, with all their demand and promise, harvest the countryside of people who can no longer tolerate the limitations of rural life or who simply see urban life as presenting more options for livelihood. Rural to urban migration is naturally greater where the benefits of development (that is, decent wages, adequate shelter, longer life) have not been well-distributed over the national landscape. Fifteen years ago, the urban growth rate of developing countries (3.8%) was over four times that of developed countries (0.9%), which had already urbanized. In the coming years, the rate of urban-

8

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A WORLD OF CITIES

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Teddy A. Suyasa/Topham Picturepoint/UNEP

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City Life The map on the left depicts the 375 largest cities in the world - all with populations over 1 million - overlaid on the gridded world population map. Homo urbanus is thriving.

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ization for developing countries will have slowed dramatically compared to the earlier rates.3 This is natural as excess rural population becomes fully absorbed and because fertility rates tend to decline with urbanization. Taking a closer look at the nighttime satellite image, one sees black holes in the fabric of light covering the continents. Swaths of darkness, most remarkably stretching across much of populated Africa, imply exclusion from the modern productive world. The darkness signals a parallel universe where individuals, families, communities, cities and whole countries may be disconnected, not part of the global economic grid. Has the global economy bypassed these areas? Or, has urbanization generated insufficient energy to reach a visible threshold? Could one, if sufficiently sensitive, detect low intensity energy emanating from cities and communities within the dark patches? And, if so, would that potential force be on the verge of extinction or would it be just powering up? Compare, also, the brightest metropolitan clusters of eastern North America with the relatively low levels of light emitted by five times as many people in

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India. Which is more sustainable? Which more amenable? Are the energy-rich cities of highly industrialized countries now what others could become? Or, do they form an exclusive global club, where the privileged and wealthy members are unwilling, or unable, to open the doors to others? To answer these questions, one must examine many cities, over time, from all angles and all levels - from the global satellite overview to the gritty footpath of the shanty town. Starting with this 2001 edition, the State of the World’s Cities series will take the reader through Africa, the Arab States, Asia and the Pacific, the highly industrialized countries, Latin America and the Caribbean and the countries with economies in transition - to understand better how shelter, society, environment, economy and, above all, systems of governance can contribute to urban vibrancy and viability in a globalizing world. From periodic enquiry and regular assessment of urban conditions and trends, practical notions will emerge about how homo urbanus can realize a more sustainable and liveable habitat.

9

A WORLD OF CITIES AN URBANIZED WORLD The new human habitat

R

apid growth of population and its concentration in cities around the world are affecting the long-term outlook for humanity. Despite four millennia as centres of civilization and economic activity, cities never attracted more than a few percent of the global population until the last century. Now, at the beginning of the 21st century, systems of cities have become a dominant factor in the world’s social, economic, cultural and political matrix. Burdened with all the problems of growth, cities are increasingly subject to dramatic crises, especially in developing countries. Unemployment, environmental degradation, lack of urban services, deterioration of existing infrastructure and lack of access to land, finance and adequate shelter are among the main areas of concern. Urban Population as a % of total population

Urban Population annual growth rate (%)

1970

1995

2015

Least Developed

12.7

22.9

34.9

1970-1995

5.1

1995-2015

4.6

All Developing

24.7

37.4

49.3

3.8

2.9

Industrialized

67.1

73.7

78.7

1.1

0.6

Low HDI

18.2

27.4

38.6

4.1

3.7

Medium HDI

23.0

37.7

52.7

3.9

2.8

High HDI

52.8

70.9

78.5

3.3

1.7

Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2000

For better or for worse, the development of contemporary societies will depend largely on understanding and managing the growth of cities. The city will increasingly become the test bed for the adequacy of political institutions, for the performance of government agencies, and for the effectiveness of programmes to combat social exclusion, to protect and repair the environment and to promote human development.

Urbanization and human development

population in both highly industrialized countries (HIC) and those countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI1), is above 70 percent. Urbanization falls to less than 30 percent in countries that are classified as Least Developed Countries (LDC) or have a low HDI. All HICs score high in their provision of urban services and infrastructure to all citizens and low in incidence of absolute poverty. Development and urbanization, thus, proceed handin-glove. Without substantial investment in the infrastructure and services that support both, neither can occur.

Moving toward urban-rural equilibrium The current worldwide rate of urbanization (that is, the percentage rate, per year, that the urban share of total population is expanding) is about 0.8 percent, varying between about 1.6 percent for all African countries to about 0.3 percent for all HICs. Worldwide, nearly all cities continue to grow in absolute terms. The rates at which they are capturing a portion of a country’s total population, however, vary. In Asia and North America, cities are still taking in national population at an increasing rate, although the rate in North America is very low at 0.26 percent. In Africa, Europe and Latin America, urbanization rates are slowing. In Latin America, urbanization rates - now at about 0.5 percent - have been slowing since 1950 when the average for all countries in the region was 1.8 percent per year. With the exception of the small island states of Oceania, that actually had negative urbanization rates since 1975 and are now moving into positive territory, rates of urbanization are projected to drop in all regions after 2015. Slowing urbanization rates mean that the combined rate of (1) domestic rural-tourban migration, (2) immigration of foreigners directly to cities and (3) the natural rate of population growth in cities is dropping off.

10

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

There is a strong, positive link between national urbanization and national levels of human development. Urban population, as a share of total national

2.5

The rise of the mega-city (cities of at least 10 million people) in developing countries over the past twenty years is of concern because of incapacity to increase the provision of housing and basic services at the same pace. There is currently an extremely rapid displacement of developed country cities2 on the list of the world’s 30 largest cities by those in developing countries. Between 1980 and 2000 Lagos, Nigeria, Dhaka, Bangladesh, Cairo, Egypt, Tianjin, China, Hyderabad and Lahore, India, along with several others in developing countries, were added to the list. By 2010 Lagos is projected to become the third largest city in the world.

World urbanization rates from 1950-2020

2.0

Percentage

1.5

1.0

0.5

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia

-2030

-2025

2025

-2020

2020

-2015

Northern America

2015

2010

-2010 2005

-2005

-2000

2000

-1995

Oceania

World

1995

-1990

1990

1985

-1985 1980

-1980

-1975

1975

-1970

1970

-1965

1965

1960

-1960 1955

-0.5

1950

-1955

0.0

Europe Africa

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

Trading Places on the Top 30 List (population in millions)

2000 26.4 Tokyo

2010 26.4 Tokyo

2

15.6 New York

16.1 New York

18.1 Mexico City

23.6 Bombay

3

13.9 Mexico City

15.1 Mexico City

18.1 Bombay

20.2 Lagos

4

12.5 São Paulo

15.1 São Paulo

17.8 São Paulo

19.7 São Paulo

5

11.7 Shanghai

13.3 Shanghai

16.6 New York

18.7 Mexico City

6

10.0 Osaka

12.2 Bombay

13.4 Lagos

18.4 Dhaka

13.1 Los Angeles

17.2 New York

7

9.9 Buenos Aires

11.5 Los Angeles

8

9.5 Los Angeles

11.2 Buenos Aires

12.9 Calcutta

16.6 Karachi

9

9.0 Calcutta

11.0 Osaka

12.9 Shanghai

15.6 Calcutta

10

9.0 Beijing

10.9 Calcutta

12.6 Buenos Aires

15.3 Jakarta

11

8.9 Paris

10.8 Beijing

12.3 Dhaka

15.1 Delhi

12

8.7 Rio de Janeiro

10.5 Seoul

11.8 Karachi

13.9 Los Angeles

13

8.3 Seoul

9.7 Rio de Janeiro

11.7 Delhi

13.9 Metro Manila

14

8.1 Moscow

9.3 Paris

11.0 Jakarta

13.7 Buenos Aires

15

8.1 Bombay

9.0 Moscow

11.0 Osaka

13.7 Shanghai

16

7.7 London

8.8 Tianjin

10.9 Metro Manila

12.7 Cairo

17

7.3 Tianjin

8.6 Cairo

10.8 Beijing

11.8 Istanbul

18

6.9 Cairo

8.2 Delhi

10.6 Rio de Janeiro 11.5 Beijing

19

6.8 Chicago

8.0 Metro Manila

10.6 Cairo

20

6.3 Essen

7.9 Karachi

9.9 Seoul

11.0 Osaka

21

6.0 Jakarta

7.7 Lagos

9.6 Paris

10.0 Tianjin

22

6.0 Metro Manila

7.7 London

9.5 Istanbul

9.9 Seoul

23

5.6 Delhi

7.7 Jakarta

9.3 Moscow

9.7 Paris

24

5.3 Milan

6.8 Chicago

9.2 Tianjin

9.4 Hyderabad

25

5.1 Teheran

6.6 Dhaka

7.6 London

9.4 Moscow

26

5.0 Karachi

6.5 Istanbul

7.4 Lima

9.0 Bangkok

27

4.7 Bangkok

6.4 Teheran

7.3 Bangkok

8.8 Lima

28

4.6 Saint Petersburg

6.4 Essen

7.2 Teheran

8.6 Lahore

29

4.6 Hong Kong

5.9 Bangkok

7.0 Chicago

8.2 Madras

30

4.4 Lima

5.8 Lima

6.9 Hong Kong

8.1 Teheran

11.5 Rio de Janeiro

8 At the same time Milan, Italy, Essen, Germany, and London, United Kingdom have all disappeared from among the top 30 cities, and New York, USA, Osaka, Japan and Paris, France will have slipped farther down the list by 2010. Among developed countries, only Tokyo will have held its place - as the largest urban agglomeration in the world - for 30 years. It should be noted that none of these great cities, with the possible exception of London, will have lost population over the 30 year span. Mega-cities are still growing, but in the developed world they are part of the general slowdown of urban growth rates to a global rate of about one-third of one percent per year. The overall urbanization rate in Asia, in contrast, is four times that and is reflected in the growth of its mega-cities.

7 6 5 4 3

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

OP P L TOTA

U

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N

IO N

25.1 Tokyo

2

L AT

1990

21.9 Tokyo

PU

1980 1

U RBA

N

1

PO

11

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

0

(Population in Billions)

1500

Mega-cities in the developing world

A WORLD OF CITIES

Anti-urban bias among aid agencies

S

AFRICA

ub-Saharan Africa’s urban population will approach 440 million, or 46 percent of its projected total of 952 million, by 2020.3 Today, urban areas account for 34 percent of the total population of 611 million and are credited with 60 percent of the region’s GDP. Municipalities, however, capture only a small percentage of GDP - US$14 per capita - in revenue, creating disparity between the requirements for municipal governance and available resources. Africa Sub Sahara Region Population: 1980-2020 1,000,000

(Population 000's)

800,000 N

600,000

UL

OP

T

P AL OT

O ATI

440,035 (46.2%) 310,347 (40.4%)

400,000 209,472 (34.3%)

200,000

0

82,781 (23.2%)

1980

132,888 (28.1%)

N PO URBA

1990

PUL

2000

ATIO

N

2010

2020

(Population 000's)

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

Definitions of ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ vary widely across Africa. Many African countries use a population figure of 2,000 to distinguish between rural and urban settlements. However, the figure varies from 100 in Uganda to 20,000 in Nigeria and Mauritius. Almost half the countries in Africa use a numerical definition to indicate the areas that qualify as urban. The pattern of urbanization in West Africa differs somewhat from that in East Africa. In many West African countries there are few secondary cities, so the population is concentrat25,000 Ten Largest Cities - Africa Region ed in one or a few large cities. Population: 1980-2015 Population growth in East 20,000 Africa is more evenly distributed over secondary and ter15,000 tiary cities. But there, also, primary cities are going 10,000 through a period of rapid 5,000 growth. By 2015, it is expected that one city in Sub0 Saharan Africa (Lagos) will 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 have a population of more Cape Town - South Africa Nairobi - Kenya than 10 million inhabitants, Maputo - Mozambique Johannesburg - South Africa and 70 cities will have popuAbidjan - Côte d'Ivoire Dar Es Salam - United Republic of Tanzania lations of more than 1 milKinshasa - Democratic Addis Ababa - Ethiopia Republic of the Congo lion. The most important Lagos - Nigeria Luanda - Angola

Several international development agencies in Africa still have no department specifically in charge of urban development. In several agencies, the ruralist lobby is so strong that urban poverty is hardly recognized as such and “urban development has to walk in disguise behind the imperatives of health, education, gender, family planning, micro-enterprise promotion, environment….” Aid organizations tend to ignore the city as an engine of social and economic development that can also contribute to sustainable rural development.

contributor to urbanization in both West and East Africa was until recently migration from rural areas. In Southern Africa natural population increase is already the most important cause of urbanization. Global economic processes have stalled in SubSaharan Africa with severe consequences for its urban areas. Africa is the only region of the world without a true newly industrializing economy. The failure to industrialize can partly be explained by external factors, but a variety of domestic factors must also be taken into account, including economic policies, the effects of personal rule, historical legacy, the role of the state and low levels of literacy. Structural adjustment, which created shortages of imported materials, reduced investment, retrenched the public sector and led to declining effective demand, has badly affected urban-based manufacturing. Large-scale manufacturing, which created an impressive volume of jobs in Asia and Latin America, has generated only a small number of employment opportunities in urban Africa. In many countries of Africa, states are pitted against their cities, abetted by a pro-rural bias among most aid agencies. As population shifts toward urban areas, parliaments become disproportionately weighted in favour of rural constituencies. Where systems of governance are still centralized, this can result in national neglect of urban areas. This neglect can translate into a failure to supply and maintain essential infrastructure and services required by urban populations and potential investors. Nonetheless, there is forward movement. In recent years, national governments across Africa are adopting decentralization as one of their primary strategies for development. Africa has also spawned an “associative” sector built on local solidarity movements. Many of these have been supported by external aid in developing and testing innovative bottom-up approaches to service delivery in both rural and urban areas. To increase the involvement of disadvantaged groups in economic, social and political decision making processes, countries in Africa have revised constitutions and passed legislation that supports the participation of excluded and disadvantaged groups, especially women.

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

12

400,000

(Population 000's)

350,000 300,000

259,963 (65.8%)

N TIO LA

250,000

PU

L TA TO

200,000

204,446 (61.4%)

PO

152,382 (56.4%)

150,000 100,000 50,000

N

109,529 (51.2%) 71,475 (44.9%)

1980

N RBA

PUL

IO AT

PO

U

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

The Arab States comprise a great diversity of socioeconomic and human settlement profiles and characteristics: from least developed, through developing to oil rich countries; conflict and post-conflict situations; from very open economies to economic isolation; and highly urbanized to predominantly rural. The region’s considerable internal disparities are reflected in the conditions in its cities and have resulted in widely varying domestic needs and priorities: rehabilitation and reconstruction (Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Somalia); poverty alleviation (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Morocco and Yemen); urban management and housing needs (Egypt, Jordan and Algeria); and capacity building (Gulf countries). Rapid population growth remains a major challenge. Some countries have annual population growth rates between 3 and 5.5 percent, while some urban growth rates are even higher: 6.4 percent (Iraq), 5.9 percent (UAE), and 4.1 percent (Oman and Bahrain). Urban growth rates will remain higher than total population growth rates in the foreseeable future. In the region’s more diversified economies, urban growth has been the result of rural-to-urban migration as well as high fertility and declining rates of mortality. In some countries, however, high rates of urbanization have been stimulated by transnational migration as well as by natural increase. Urban population is greatest in the smaller states (Kuwait 97 percent, the Gaza Strip 95 percent, and

13

15,000

A WORLD OF CITIES

ARAB STATES

Arab States Region Population: 1980-2020

Bahrain and Qatar 92 percent). Saudi Arabia, one of the largest Arab States, is 86 percent urban, and is projected to rise to 89 percent urban by 2010. Egypt is 45 percent urban and Sudan 36 percent. Both countries will remain among the region’s leasturbanized in the years to come. Although rural populations have declined in most of the region’s countries during the 1990-2000 period and will continue to do so during 2000-2010, six countries need to deal not only with high urban growth rates, but also with rapidly expanding rural populations between now and 2010: Yemen 38.5 percent, the Gaza Strip 31.1 percent, Syria 13.7 percent, Iraq 11.1 percent, Jordan 11.8 percent, and Egypt 9.9 percent. Thus, several Arab States need to prepare for both urban and rural growth. Urban agglomerations such as the Amman-Zarqa urban corridor, Jordan, in which most of the country’s industrial activity and social and educational facilities are concentrated, serve as major pulling forces for rural-to-urban migration. Likewise, Damascus, Cairo and Alexandria can also expect further strong rural-tourban migration. Many cities are now going through a critical phase of development, marked by dwindling resources, increasing poverty, and serious environmental degradation.

Ten Largest Cities - Arab States Region Population: 1980-2015

12,000 (Population 000's)

T

he Arab States’ urban population is projected to be 260 million, or 66 percent of its estimated total of 395 million, by 2020. Today, urban areas account for 56 percent of the total population of 270 million. Municipalities capture about US$46 per capita in revenue per year.

9,000

6,000

3,000

0

1980

1990

2000

2010 2015

Beirut - Lebanon

Riyadh - Saudi Arabia

Aleppo - Syrian Arab Republic

Casablanca - Morocco

Damascus - Syrian Arab Republic

Alexandria - Egypt

Arbil - Iraq

Baghdad - Iraq

Khartoum - Sudan

Cairo - Egypt

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

The region’s considerable internal disparities are reflected in the conditions in its cities and have resulted in widely varying domestic needs and priorities

per year is nearly 27 percent greater than the global average

T

he urban population in the Asia and Pacific region is expected to be 1,970 million, or 46 percent of its projected total of 4,298 million, by 2020. By 2025 the majority of the region’s population will live in urban areas. Urban areas today account for 35 percent of the total population of 3,515 million. On average, municipalities secure about US$153 per capita in revenue per year. In recent years, the Asia and the Pacific region has been known for extremely high rates of industrialization, linked to increased international and regional trade. An average urban growth rate of about 2.7 percent per year is nearly 27 percent greater than the global average (2.11 percent), and the absolute number of urban residents is nearly triple that in the highly industrialized countries. Both China (2.47) and India (2.84) are close to the regional average rate of urban growth in the past five years. Southeastern Asia has the highest urban growth in the region at 3.57 percent, followed by Southcentral Asia at 2.97 percent. Eastern Asia and Oceania have the lowest urban growth rates at 2.02 percent 1.21 percent, respectively. Asia and Pacific Region Population: 1980-2020

5,000,000

4,000,000 AL P TOT

ION LAT

OPU

3,000,000 1,970,010 (45.8%)

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

657,481 (25.9%)

1980

943,431 (31.0%)

1990

1,229,835 (35.0%)

1,572,425 (40.0%)

ION

LAT POPU URBAN

2000

2010

2020

problem requires different ways of managing cities and their related infrastructure and service requirements. Recently, macro-economic and financial crises have cast doubt on conventional concepts and approaches. Countries that had achieved well-functioning cities in a steady process of improvement over a period of twenty to thirty years have seen the collapse of urban functions in the wake of the financial crises of the 1990’s. The economic contraction affected the lives of millions, aggravating social vulnerabilities. It has had many dimensions - falling incomes, rising absolute poverty and malnutrition, declining public services, threats to educational and health status, increased pressure on women, and increased crime and violence. In East and Southeast Asia, the social consequences of the financial crisis continue to linger in spite of recent indications of recovery. Its impact has been felt more in cities, reflected in increased poverty brought about by cutbacks in both public and private employment as well as in public expenditures for health and education. Yet, many cities have been able to achieve significant success, which can be built upon, scaled up and replicated. The increased pace of urbanization and its linkages to economic globalization have reinvigorated interest in the process of governance and its links to economic growth. In Asia and the Pacific, decentralization and local autonomy are gaining more momentum and, with this, the interest in building the capacity of local governments is growing. While several Asian countries have adopted decentralization policies, excessive controls are still exercised by higher levels of government on the functional, financial and administrative responsibilities of local government. As a result, there is a mismatch between the functional powers of local governments and the financial resources available to them.

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999 30,000

Amidst this aggregate increase, urban growth in several Asian countries was, at times, negative. These countries, where national population policies have often been applied ruthlessly, include Sri Lanka (1975-1985), Cambodia (1970-1975), East Timor (the last 40 years), Vietnam (1990-1995) and the Maldives (1990-1995). Urbanization in Asia and the Pacific raises red flags, particularly because an increasing number of poor is living in urban areas. The size and urgency of the

14

Ten Largest Cities - Asia & Pacific Region Population: 1980-2015

25,000 (Population 000's)

(Population 000's)

ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

A WORLD OF CITIES

urban growth rate of about 2.7 percent

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

1980

1990

2000

2010 2015

Metro Manila - Philippines

Dhaka - Bangladesh

Osaka - Japan

Shanghai - China

Jakarta - Indonesia

Calcutta - India

Delhi - India

Bombay - India

Karachi - Pakistan

Tokyo - Japan

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

(Population 000's)

Ten Largest Cities - Highly Industrialized Region Population: 1980-2015

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Highly Industrialized Region Population: 1980-2020

1980

1990

(Population 000's)

2010 2015

Milan - Italy

London - United Kingdom

Philadelphia - United States of America

Istanbul - Turkey

Toronto - Canada

Paris - France

Essen - Germany

Los Angeles - United States of America

800,000

Chicago - United States of America

700,000

2000

New York - United States of America

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

600,000

ION LAT

OPU

AL P TOT

547,476 (84.3%) 513,769 (82.2%) 480,089 (80.4%)

500,000 439,695 (78.9%)

400,000

1980

TION ULA

AN URB

404,725 (77.7%)

1990

POP

2000

2010

2020

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

between the public and the private sectors; a generally stronger role for a few major cities within each country; ageing populations and the related problems of access to health care and pensions; international migration; and the highly detrimental impacts of social and economic polarization. In several industrialized countries these trends are compounded by the movement of jobs to newly industrializing regions and by rising urban poverty among vulnerable groups, further fuelling polarization trends. In nearly all industrial countries, rural populations are still decreasing; a trend expected to continue over the coming decades. In the past half-century, cities have changed from fairly concentrated and identifiable entities into amorphous areas, sprawling into their hinterlands without visible borders between town and country. The automobile may be the facilitator, but causes of this dispersal include consumption-driven capitalism, the desire for more modern and spacious housing in open landscapes, the architectural and planning ideals of modernists and the developers’ preference for cheap greenfield sites. Currently, half the urban population of Europe lives in small towns of 10-50,000 people, a quarter in medium sized towns and cities of 50-250,000, and a quarter in cities with more than 250,000 people.4 Projections for 2020 do not indicate much change in the pattern of population distribution over city-size

classes. In 2020, there will be five urban agglomerations larger than 5 million inhabitants in Europe: Paris, Moscow, London, Essen/Ruhrgebiet and St. Petersburg. In North America, cities of more than 5 million will be New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. For the past two decades, the industrialized countries committed themselves to economic policies aimed at encouraging macroeconomic stabilization, structural adjustment and the globalization of production and distribution. Although these policies have in general been effective in promoting short-term economic growth, low inflation, and lower current-account imbalances, negative longer-term societal implications are now emerging as major political and socioeconomic dilemmas. Growing political disenchantment arising from widening income gaps, declining political participation, and wide-spread social exclusion is manifesting itself in cities across North America and Europe alike. Social exclusion, urban segregation and violence have become phenomena common to many cities and, in the United States, the National League of Cities says racial tension is the number one issue facing cities.5 West European and North American cities are wealthy with generally well-educated populations. In 1998, the industrialized countries were among those with the highest GDP per capita - more than three times the world average. Nonetheless, persistent pockets of destitution continue to exist in cities throughout the entire region and poverty certainly has not yet been overcome. Around 17 percent of all urban households in the highly industrialized countries are income poor. But access of women to employment, literacy rates and school enrolment have all increased in Western Europe and North America.

15

A WORLD OF CITIES

20,000

HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED

T

he urban population in the Highly Industrialized Countries (HIC) is projected to be 547 million, or 84 percent of its total population of 649 million, by 2020. Today, urban areas account for 80 percent of the total population of 597 million. On average, municipalities receive about US$2,906 per capita in revenue per year. In most highly industrialized countries, the urban transformation has nearly stabilized. Therefore, cities no longer deal with the effects of rapid urbanization, but rather with a combination of other demographic issues and the impacts of global trends: increasing internationalization of metropolitan regions; changes in the distribution of responsibilities

L

atin America and the Caribbean is the most urbanized region in the developing world. In 1930, Latin America had just over 100 million inhabitants. Now, its population stands at 519 million. With 75 percent, or 391 million, of its people living in cities, it has an urban/rural ratio similar to that of the highly industrialized countries. The proportion of urban population is particularly high in Argentina (89.8%), the Bahamas (88.5%), Uruguay (91.3%) and Venezuela (86.9 %). Moreover, urban agglomerations of Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City and Lima are already among the 30 largest in the world. The urban population in the Latin America and Caribbean region will approach 539 million, or 81 percent of its projected total population of 665 million, by 2020. On average, municipalities capture about US$87 per capita in revenue per year. Latin America and the Caribbean Region Population: 1980-2020 800,000

700,000

600,000

539,100 (81.0%)

500,000

TAL TO

ION LAT PU PO

467,431 (78.5%)

390,921 (75.3%)

400,000

N

312,714 (71.0%)

300,000

200,000

234,634 (64.9%)

1980

UR

1990

B

P AN

OP

TIO UL A

2000

2010

2020

over 100 million inhabitants. Now, its population stands at 519 million one million inhabitants - 14 of these are in Brazil alone. The growth of these intermediate cities has a dampening effect on the number of mega-cities. Nonetheless, secondary cities have not necessarily gained enough political power or improved government services despite their growth. They still tend to lack the economic diversity, urban services, and the cultural life that the region’s primate cities offer. Despite general economic growth, deep inequalities persist in most countries of the region. Much poverty is concentrated in the urban areas, and a massive 40 percent of the population of Mexico City and a third of São Paulo’s population is at or below the poverty line. These poor urban dwellers mostly live in substandard housing within informal settlements and with limited or no access to basic services. Many of the region’s urban residents have to deal with a host of societal shortfalls: insecurity of tenure; inadequate access to affordable transportation; environmental degradation; high levels of violence; and increasing social and spatial segregation. Poverty is often the result of social position, depending on economic class, age, ethnicity or gender. As the number of poor people in the region rose from 44 to 220 million between 1970 and 2000, so did the number of women in poverty. More than one-third of the poorest households are headed by women.

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

Urbanization patterns in the region, with Brazil being a notable exception, typically involve a single very large city per country. For example, the Lima metropolitan area has over 7.4 million inhabitants almost 30 percent of Peru’s total population. The second largest city, Arequipa, has fewer than 700,000 inhabitants. In recent years, a more broadened urban hierarchy has developed in the region with a host of fast growing intermediate cities because of the penetration of global economy to new levels and the increasingly specialized functions that smaller cities are performing. The region now has 51 cities with more than

25,000

Ten Largest Cities - Latin American Region Population: 1980-2015

20,000 (Population 000's)

(Population 000's)

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

A WORLD OF CITIES

In 1930, Latin America had just

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

1980

1990

2000

2010 2015

Porto Alegre - Brazil

Lima - Peru

Guadalajara - Mexico

Rio de Janeiro - Brazil

Belo Horizonte - Brazil

Buenos Aires - Argentina

Santiago - Chile

São Paulo - Brazil

Bogotá - Colombia

Mexico City - Mexico

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

16

600,000

(Population 000's)

L TOTAL POPU

ATION

500,000

404,534 (74.2%) 382,296 (70.5%)

400,000 354,035 (66.3%) 305,977 (61.3%)

300,000

419,690 (77.5%)

1980

1990

N

LATIO OPU AN P URB

2000

2010

2020

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

It is primarily the former centrally planned economies of Eastern and Central Europe, plus the CIS countries, that have become known as economies in transition. Some of these were among the first industrialized urban societies in the world but in recent decades have failed to modernize their cities. The enormity of the task of their transforming to market economies and upgrading their cities is now manifesting itself to a full extent. At present, there are very few ETs whose transition is complete. Although the transition from centralized to free market economies has delivered considerable social benefits, it has also proven a costly process. Transition started with general impoverishment – in 1996, real wage levels in many ETs had fallen to half or less compared to 1989. Next came rises in unemployment, followed by sharp increases in poverty and inequality, a striking deterioration of public services and a fall in the provision of educational services. The elderly – often sentenced to poverty - became major losers in the transition process, as well as many middle-aged people, since retirement was widely used to reduce unemployment. Half the region’s poor citizens live in cities.

(Population 000's)

8,000

Ten Largest Cities - Transition Region Population: 1980-2015 6,000

4,000

2,000

0

1980

1990

2000

2010 2015

Minsk - Belarus

Warsaw - Poland

Budapest - Hungary

Kiev - Ukraine

Baku - Azerbaijan

Katowice - Poland

Bucharest - Romania

Saint Petersburg - Russian Federation

Tashkent - Uzbekistan

Moscow - Russian Federation

There are, indeed, sharp differences among the various countries with economies in transition, notably in criminality, corruption and democracy. Some, particularly in Central Europe, have clearly started to adjust to the market economy promoted by the West. But, although the laissez-faire model was assumed by many experts to be the solution, experience during the past decade indicates that this does not necessarily hold true for all. The informal sector in a number of countries will play an increasing role, as a consequence of growth in the labour force without a matching response in the level of formal employment opportunities. In several of the region’s countries, newly enfranchised city governments often have neither the experience nor the capacity to deal with the huge deficiencies built up over the years. In spite of quantitative transfer of tasks to local authorities, demands frequently overshadow administrative and financial capacities. It is, therefore, important to strengthen both the institutional and financial bases of local authorities to enable them to participate effectively in the development process. Local government income figures suggest that decentralization has not been achieved since the national government transfers are still very high. There are, however, capacity building programmes ongoing in such countries as Poland and Romania, and, in the Balkans, cities are undergoing not only reconstruction but “re-invention.” Sustainable urban development in ET countries will depend upon the creation and maintenance of efficient land and property markets; the development of housing finance; a greater emphasis on municipal finance and institution building; the strengthening of urban utility systems; a growing interest in the preservation of cultural assets and heritage; and the responsiveness to such emergencies as earthquakes and flooding.6 www.undp.org/hdro/ www.worldbank.org/wdr/

17

A WORLD OF CITIES

ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION

Transition Region Population: 1980-2020

10,000

Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999

T

he urban population in the countries with economies in transition (ET) will approach 420 million, or 78 percent of its projected total population of 541 million, by 2020. Today, urban areas account for 70 percent, or 382 million of the total population of 543 million. The urban share of total population ranges from 40 percent in most of the central Asian republics to nearly 75 percent in Russia, about the same as the HIC and Latin American countries. Of the central Asian republics that were part of the former Soviet Union, four - Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - recorded negative urban growth rates between 1990 and 1995. The aggregate urban populations in the first and last of these countries is still decreasing. On average, municipalities of the ET countries capture about US$275 per capita in revenue per year.

The growth of large cities in the developing world is accompanied by an upsurge in urban poverty.1 From a number of perspectives, national and local authorities are not prepared to manage urban development in favour of the poor, who usually take up illegal residence on the periphery of the city. Without basic services, secure tenure and formal employment opportunities, these settlements become slums of the most appalling nature, offering their inhabitants little hope of improving their lives. It is estimated that between 1/4 and 1/3 of all urban households in the world live in absolute poverty. Vulnerable to a number of hazards, the urban poor are always at risk. They live densely packed, subject to heavy rains or sudden fires that can wipe out their homes. They have precarious employment, in the formal or informal sector. They are exposed to higher incidence of disease, arbitrary arrest and forced eviction. Neglected by formal institutions, they are often left unprotected against violence, drug dealers, corrupt officials, unscrupulous slumlords and organized crime. Lack of resources and, therefore, lack of political power, is one of the main causes of their vulnerability. Low levels of assets make poor people especially vulnerable to negative economic shocks, setting in motion a downward spiral that worsens deprivation in the long term. Pulling children out of school to earn extra income; making quick land sales at desperately

www.urbanobservatory.org

The urban poor, by region

50

(%)

40

30

20

Transition

LAC

Asia-Pacific

Arab States

0

Africa

10

low prices; slowing nutritional intake below the levels necessary to sustain health all contribute to greater vulnerability in the future. Urban indicators, based on local definitions of poverty, reveal that the cities of Africa have the highest rates of poverty of all regions: over 40 percent and rising. Latin America has significantly higher percentage of woman-headed households living in poverty than the percentage of all households in poverty (36 against 25 percent). Thirty-four Latin American cities report more woman-headed households in poverty against 23 with less. Cities of North Africa show a different pattern than the other Arab States, with more woman- headed households in poverty. In most Asian cities, poverty incidence is higher in woman-headed households than in all households. Social and political forces, as well as markets, have their effects on poverty. Public expenditure patterns, gender discrimination, accountability, corruption, having a voice in public affairs, as well as global factors such as environmental degradation, health advances, and agricultural productivity each play a role in increasing or reducing poverty. Statistics on health, education and income, however, do not capture the micro-level realities of living poor, such as the impact of domestic violence on women’s lives. Patterns of poverty evolution are so enormously varied that one should not expect simple causal explanations, much less a uniform set of policy prescriptions. Increasingly, identifying and overcoming conditions of local poverty is seen as a local authority responsibility - for higher level institutions to support and facilitate. In terms of income poverty it appears that relative equality in assets and relative stability of the economic growth path can have significant effects on poverty reduction. In this regard a fair and predictable legal system and the ability to dampen short term shocks with targeted assistance programmes will have positive long-term consequences. Strengthening institutions, norms and values, and building the social capital generated by reciprocity - or the give and take within networks - is also important in reducing levels of poverty.

Poor woman-headed households Poor households

50

Liberalizing consumption The exchange of goods and services on which the world economy is based leads to the most unimaginable things becoming objects of consumption. The living conditions of the financially least-advantaged give rise to marked vulnerability, where values are distorted. This in turn leads to trade or traffic of varied merchandise taking place within a legal or illegal framework. Thus, female and child prostitution, traffic of women and children, poverty and the countries’ economic policies become closely related subjects.

The urban poor, by city development (CDI)

40

(%)

A WORLD OF CITIES

GLOBALIZATION, CITIES AND THE URBAN POOR

Vulnerability of the urban poor

30

20

10

0

1 (low)

2

3

CDI Quintile

Poor woman-headed households

4

5 (high) Poor households

18

Just as it is becoming clear that poverty reduction demands more effective local response and more supportive enabling policies at the national level, the urban poor face additional risk. In the 1970’s, the world embarked on a phase of globalization aimed at deregulating labour markets, privatizing government functions and liberalizing finance. Financial liberalization was supposed to move savings from developed to developing countries, lower the costs of borrowing, reduce risk through new financial instruments, and increase economic growth. Much the opposite materialized: savings have flowed from poor to richer countries, interest rates have generally increased, risk has risen and economic growth throughout the world has slowed for the vast majority of countries, rich and poor.2 With global liberalization, job and income security worsened in both rich and poor countries. Competition for foreign investment and the greater ability of employers to shift production to other locations have undermined job security and collective bargaining. Mergers and acquisitions, now the most prevalent form of foreign domestic investment (FDI) in developing countries, have commonly produced corporate restructuring and massive layoffs. Then, in 1997-1998, the economic crisis in Asia struck a blow against economies in the developing world that had been held up as models of liberalized success. The crisis was caused in part by poorly regulated financial systems that allowed an excessive flow of credit to weak borrowers and to high risk projects.3 Banks were weakened by growing levels of unreported non-performing debt. In mid-1997, market confidence collapsed. In one country after another, starting in Thailand and spreading to Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and the Republic of Korea, the Asian crises exposed the risks inherent to close integration of national economies with the global financial markets. Human impacts were severe and will persist long after economic recovery. In the two decades prior to the crises, East and Southeast Asian countries made spectacular welfare gains, primarily because growth was largely inclusive - the poor shared the benefits. The number of poor people had fallen and the severity of poverty had declined. Life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, and literacy all improved. The economic crisis in Asia caused the biggest setback for poverty reduction in several decades. It caused lay-offs, real wage declines, weak demand for new labor market entrants, and falling margins in the informal sector. In Thailand, unemployment increased by 50 percent. In the Republic of Korea, unemployment reached two million people during 1998, up from one-half million the year before. In the Philippines, one million additional people joined the ranks of the jobless. Job losses hit women, youth and unskilled workers hardest. Families under stress were taking children out of school. Increasing domestic violence, street crime and suicides were reported in most of the countries as a result of increased social stress and family fragmentation. More people live in poverty today in Asia than in the mid-1990’s.

www.tradewatch.org/otherissues/MAI/ www.wtowatch.org/ www.socialwatch.orb/2000/ www.id21.org/insights26/ www.unchs.org/ (Habitat Debate, December 2000) www.apsanet.org/PS/dec99/waltz.cfm www.epinet.org/

Another hazard

Lessons in governance In Asia, cities became the locus of bad debt generated in large part by a vast oversupply of middle and upper-class housing estates, condominiums, hotels and office towers. The Asia crisis revealed the destructive side of globalization. The prospect of global markets fueled the desire of many entrepreneurs and some government officials to cash in quickly. It increased the opportunities for crony capitalism and corruption. Expecting a rising tide to float all ships, it diverted attention from the basic needs of those who are normally excluded or could not participate. As the Asian crisis and those that occurred in Mexico, Brazil and Russia have demonstrated, all urban communities, not only the poor - who are always at greatest risk - are vulnerable to malfunctions of global economic system. It is only a matter of time before another systemic shock shakes investor confidence and capital abandons even stronger economies. At this moment, rising oil prices, falling stock prices and a series of global food supply problems are causing politicians and investors no small concern. Local authorities, who know the micro-realities of poverty and are on the front line in responding to all social, economic and environmental crises, urgently require different and more effective tools for securing the lives of their citizens and ensuring that the urban poor have some protection against global market hazards. The silver lining is that the increased pace of urbanization and its linkages to economic globalization have reinvigorated interest in good urban governance and its links to economic growth. The combined effect of economic foibles and failures is helping to define the fundamentals of good governance, made conspicuous by their absence: fiscal discipline, fair and transparent resource allocation, effective and predictable regulatory systems, fiduciary responsibility, strategic planning, independent and just mechanisms for conflict resolution, participatory decision-making, safety and security for all, open information flows and ethical behaviour.

19

Hobbling local government In the name of a global economy, international institutions are taking steps to liberate markets from the regulatory authority of nations and their autonomous subdivisions - the provinces and cities. That authority can be pre-empted by such instruments as the proposed Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), which was read by many local authorities as restricting their abilities to: (1) condition new major investments within their jurisdictions on performance requirements in support of local economic development; (2) prohibit contracts with entities that violate international human rights, labour and environmental laws; and (3) prohibit public entities from conditioning the receipt of public funds on compliance with human rights laws or other criteria reflecting community values. Local Canadian and United States officials noticed that the MAI put in question the ability of municipalities, acting in the public interest, to limit the use of property through zoning, among other instruments. An international coalition, using Internet to organize opposition, scuttled the MAI.

Cities

A Tale Of 2

A Tale of

Dickens’s London

One of the notoriously over-crowded slum areas of London. Sheets dry on a makeshift pole poked from the window of a lodging house and a woman emerges from a cellar. Cellar dwellings were illegal at this time.

T

he urban poor have seen globalization before, whether in the name of Civilization, Empire, Industrialization or Modernization: all terms used to describe the web of international forces - in finance, trade, migration, governance and culture - that have shaped national and global history. One hundred and seventy years ago, such forces were at work in Victorian England, the first industrialized society on earth. Throughout the 19th century, England’s expansion of national wealth and consumer purchasing power continuously outpaced the rise in population, so there was much to be said for industrialization. The promise of employment in the fastgrowing cities ensured that rural-to-urban migration rapidly transformed England into an urban society. However, the contrast of living conditions between rich and poor in the city remained glaring.

Eventually, politicians and reformers realized that something had to be done about the growing human and environmental tragedy, whether by regulating the price of bread, for example, or offering poverty relief backed up by punitive forms of social regulation. It took decades for the institutions of government to temper the Industrial Revolution with social justice, often only in response to the threat posed by radical political movements such as The Chartists (1837 – 1848) or the public outcry caused by writers such as Kingsley, Mayhew and Dickens. Even though the cost to those who lived in the overcrowded cities was inhumanly high, within a few decades the domestic benefits of the Industrial Revolution were indisputable: reduced cost of bread, meat, coffee, tea and coal; an 80 percent reduction in the cost of cloth; factory working hours reduced from 74 to 60 hours per week for adults and from 72 to 40 hours for children; five in the 1850s years added to the average life span; “Then, as now, these slums existed in part because they criminal law reformed and per capita were profitable for landlords. A lodging house of eight taxes reduced by fifty percent. One can rooms might take on a hundred boarders, each paying a see how difficult it must have been to shilling or two a week to live in ‘hugger-mugger promisconvince those with power and wealth, cuity,’ sleeping with as many as twenty members of the the main architects and beneficiaries of same or opposite sex in the same room.” 19th century globalization, that swifter Michael Crichton, The Great Train Robbery progress toward social justice was needed.

British slums

20

Two Cities

Riis’s New York

I

n the latter half of the 19th century, New York, the main gateway to the New World, grew to become the largest city on earth. Many immigrants arrived from the crowded slums of Europe and settled in conditions just as bad or worse than those they had left. The “railroad flats,” 5 to 7 storey versions of the London slum, were a standard solution to unprecedented demand for city space. Parked together like crates in a warehouse, these elongated walk-up flats had no side windows, water supply or sanitary facilities. A small rear yard contained a communal latrine, and sometimes a well, creating appalling public health conditions. The second half of the 19th century, often called the “Gilded Age”, nevertheless witnessed the failure of American governance to provide any relief to the poor, urban or rural. Industrial growth seemed like an unlimited blessing - but the depression of 1893 and other events began to change all that.1 The willingness of industrialists - heroes of virtue, hard work and success - to fire workers, shut down plants and use violent means to suppress strikes, tarnished their reputation.2 Then, the eyes of the “other half ” were opened to the filth, disease and squalor of America’s slums through the photographs and writings of journalists such as Jacob Riis and Lincoln Steffens - the latter, for example, writing a series of influential articles on corruption in six major American cities for McClure’s Magazine in 1902 and 1903.3 Such popular accounts of the living conditions of the poor awakened a society that had hitherto believed that most social problems emanated from the moral defects of the people themselves - particularly immigrants. Out of this flood of exposés came a series of reforms, including the founding of the National Municipal League in 1894 as a citizens’ campaign for the reform of the state and local government. In 1909, legislation was passed giving municipalities the right to engage in city planning. Among many other local, state and national reforms of the “Progressive Era” were housing codes and zoning to regulate construction; civil service legislation that curtailed patronage; protection for women; development of fire codes; laws setting reserve requirements of banks; licensing laws for professionals; laws regulating disposal of sewage and garbage as well as food processing in restaurants; and laws regulating hours and working conditions of women and children. Thus two different countries - and cities - responded to the harsher effects of globalization: through public awareness, and democratic reform.

21

“Five Cents a Spot,” Lodgers in a Bayard Street Tenement Photograph © 1889 Museum of the City of New York Jacob A. Riis Collection #155

American slums in the 1890s “As a result of this laissez-faire philosophy of private enterprise, of the weak municipal authorities of the new state-centered political system, and of the political tenets and antiurban biases of the agrarian philosophy, some of the worst housing and living conditions experienced by modern man were created in America during the coming half century….On the congested streets of the city - frequently of mud and often strewn with garbage - the contrast between the personal wealth of the few and the abject poverty of the many was startling.” International City Managers Association, The Practice of Local Government Planning

20,000

5,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000 19,180

30,000

5,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

5,000

30,000

25,000

MEXICO CITY

10,000

NEW YORK

20,000

15,000

0

LAGOS Chicago 6,951

0 Los Angeles 13,140

Guadalajara 3,908

MUMBAI Bogotá 6,288

SÃO PAULO

0

50

61

0

21

0

26

15

20

51

11 7

33

13

43

5

12 9

8

8

6

6

6

0

Micronesia Polynesia

10,000 2,885

25,000

Asia Eastern Asia South-central Asia Western Asia South-eastern Asia Europe Eastern Europe Western Europe Southern Europe Northern Europe Latin America and the Caribbean South America Central America Caribbean Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Middle Africa Northern America Oceania Australia/New Zealand

30,000 26,138

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

5,000

Population (in millions)

5,000 2,901

10,000

20,397

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

15,000

2,423

(Population 000's)

6,920

26,444

30,000

17,432

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

(Population 000's) 10,000

12,339

(Population 000's) 15,000

23,173

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

(Population 000's) 10,000

288

(Population 000's) 15,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

(Population 000's)

THE SIX WORLD'S LARGEST CITIES

A THE WORLD OF CITIES WORLD S LARGEST CITIES 25,000

20,000

0

TOKYO

Toronto 4,651

n

n Philadelphia 4,402

n New York nn16,640

Mexico City

n n 18,131

25,000

20,000

n

0

Lima 7,443

n

20,000 17,755

n 4,170 São Paulo n n Rio de Janeiro 10,582

Belo Horizonte

15,000

Santiago 5,538

250

200 206

150

100

109

64

41

0

0

NUMBER OF AGGLOMERATIONS OF MORE THAN 1MILLION PER REGION, 2000 n Alegre n Porto 3,708

n Buenos Aires

12,560

THE TEN LARGEST CITIES IN EACH REGION, 2000

(in 000's)

Population Density (persons/km2) 1000

London 7,640

Essen 6,541

Saint Petersburg n5,133

500

Warsaw Minsk Moscow 2,269 9,321 1,772 Katowice Kiev 3,487 Budapest 2,670 1,825 Bucharest Milan Baku 2,054 4,251 1,936 Istanbul Aleppo 9,451 2,173 Baghdad Beirut 4,797 2,055 Damascus Alexandria Arbil 2,335 4,113 2,369 Cairo 10,552 Riyadh 3,324

250

n n n n n n n

n n n Paris 9,624 n

Casablanca 3,541

n

n

100 50

nn

n nn

25

nTashkent

n

n n

nShanghai

nDelhi nKarachi

n

11,794

Bombay 18,066

nKhartoum

n

11,695

1

11,013

nn

Calcutta 12,918 Metro Manila

n 10,870

nAddis Ababa

n

2,639

Lagos 13,427

n Nairobi

Kinshasa 5,064 Luanda 2,677

n

2,310

n Dar Es Salam

n

Jakarta 11,018

2,347

n

Maputo 3,025

n n

Johannesburg 2,335

n

Cape Town 2,993

THE WORLD'S URBAN POPULATION, BY CITY SIZE 47.9%

2000

40 30

26.7%

30

10

10.1%

9.2%

10

6.1%

Fewer than 500,000

500,000 to 1 million

1 to 5 million

5 to 10 million

10 million or more

Fewer than 500,000

500,000 to 1 million

1 to 5 million

5 to 10 million

10 million or more

9.8%

6.5%

0

0

0

9.8%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, United Nations Population Division

Fewer than 500,000

11.4%

8.2%

500,000 to 1 million

10 4.4%

26.3%

20

20

20

2015

30

1 to 5 million

21.2%

40

5 to 10 million

(%)

40

10 million or more

1975

50

47.6%

50

50

54.8%

(%)

60

(%)

3,305

n n Osaka

12,887

Dhaka 12,317

2,731

n Abidjan

5

Tokyo 26,444

2,148

A THE WORLD OF CITIES WORLD S URBANIZED AREAS 2000

Urban Population as % of World's total, 1998 35 31% 30

percentage (%)

25

20 17% 14%

15

15%

10% 7%

7%

Sout-East Asia and the Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa

10 5% 5

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2000

1950

OECD

East Asia

South Asia

LAC

Eastern Europe and the CIS

Arab States

0

URBANIZATION RATES

Source: World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, United Nations Population Division % of urban population, by country 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70 70 - 80 80 - 90 90 - 100

2030

A ANWORLD OF CITIES URBANIZING WORLD Selected urban population growth rates, 1995-2000 %

%

CITIES

Liberia

9.56

Tabora

United Rep. of Tanzania

Rwanda

9.37

Wenzhou

China

9.80

Malawi

8.49

Songnam

Republic of Korea

9.49

United Rep. of Tanzania

6.31

Toluca

Mexico

7.78

Burkina Faso

5.74

Ouagadougou

Burkina Faso

6.32

Uganda

5.23

Maputo

Mozambique

6.20

Nepal

5.20

Asansol

India

6.10

Ethiopia

5.16

Sana'a

Yemen

6.00

Mauritania

5.12

Hiroshima

Japan

5.46

Cape Verde

5.09

Islamabad

Pakistan

5.46

Kenya

4.93

Dhaka

Bangladesh

5.37

Yemen

4.68

Lagos

Nigeria

5.33

Nigeria

4.52

Antananarivo

Madagascar

5.16

Cameroon

4.48

Yaoundé

Cameroon

5.09

Pakistan

4.31

Tijuana

Mexico

4.98

Indonesia

4.22

Kabul

Afghanistan

4.88

Senegal

4.21

Nairobi

Kenya

4.88

Gabon

3.99

Quito

Ecuador

4.85

Paraguay

3.90

Riyadh

Saudi Arabia

4.76

Jordan

3.80

Ndjamena

Chad

4.67

Philippines

3.74

Bursa

Turkey

4.42

Ecuador

3.58

Lusaka

Zambia

4.39

Algeria

3.57

Guayaquil

Ecuador

4.36

Zimbabwe

3.53

Harare

Zimbabwe

4.33

Turkey

3.35

Bamako

Mali

4.32

Malaysia

3.34

Brazzaville

Congo

4.11

Morocco

3.23

Addis Ababa

Ethiopia

3.96

Kuwait

3.22

Dakar

Senegal

3.93

Côte d'Ivoire

3.15

Khartoum

Sudan

3.88

Botswana

2.97

Amman

Jordan

3.87

India

2.84

Barranquilla

Colombia

3.83

El Salvador

2.73

Accra

Ghana

3.61

Portugal

2.70

Istanbul

Turkey

3.56

Tunisia

2.51

Kinshasa

DR Congo

3.55

Thailand

2.50

Porto

Portugal

3.48

Zambia

2.48

Maracaibo

Venezuela

3.41

United Arab Emirates

2.48

Conakry

Guinea

3.36

China

2.47

Mecca

Saudi Arabia

3.35

Colombia

2.46

Bandung

Indonesia

3.26

Bahrain

2.45

Asunción

Paraguay

3.10

Venezuela

2.35

Ibadan

Nigeria

3.08

Egypt

2.28

La Paz

Bolivia

3.04

Lebanon

2.24

Abu Dhabi

United Arab Emirates

2.96

Brazil

2.04

Rabat

Morocco

2.91

South Africa

1.90

Fortaleza

Brazil

2.75

Mexico

1.89

Monterrey

Mexico

2.64

Chile

1.67

Oslo

Norway

2.62

Argentina

1.60

San José

Costa Rica

2.43

Barbados

1.56

Alexandria

Egypt

2.40

Djibouti

1.47

Ankara

Turkey

2.36

Trinidad and Tobago

1.15

Ahmedabad

India

2.28

Finland

1.14

Algiers

Algeria

2.22

New Zealand

1.13

Lima

Peru

2.20

Canada

1.11

Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia

2.18

United States of America

1.11

Vancouver

Canada

2.12

Azerbaijan

1.02

Bangkok

Thailand

2.06

Australia

1.02

Helsinki

Finland

1.99

Norway

0.99

Tunis

Tunisia

1.93

Uruguay

0.99

Singapore

Singapore

1.43

Poland

0.67

Düsseldorf

Germany

1.32

Austria

0.62

Zurich

Switzerland

1.20

Cuba

0.62

Los Angeles

United States of America

1.15

France

0.60

Buenos Aires

Argentina

1.14

Greece

0.58

Teheran

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

1.11

Netherlands

0.50

Denver

United States of America

0.97

Germany

0.38

Liverpool

United Kingdom

0.84

Japan

0.37

Dublin

Ireland

0.79

Spain

0.33

Rio de Janeiro

Brazil

0.77

Denmark

0.32

Havana

Cuba

0.66

Russian Federation

0.30

Lyon

France

0.59

Sweden

0.30

Stuttgart

Germany

0.51

Slovakia

0.27

Tokyo

Japan

0.51

United Kingdom

0.23

Kyoto

Japan

0.49

Belgium

0.22

Frankfurt

Germany

0.44

Romania

0.10

Gdansk

Poland

0.41

Italy

0.10

Athens

Greece

0.15

Armenia

0.08

Vienna

Austria

0.09

Slovenia

0.05

Berlin

Germany

0.04

Hungary

-0.07

Saint Petersburg

Russian Federation

0.03

Czech Republic

-0.11

Madrid

Spain

Bulgaria

-0.21

Semarang

Indonesia

-0.21

Lithuania

-0.21

Seoul

Republic of Korea

-0.73

Ukraine

-0.22

Odessa

Ukraine

-0.73

Latvia

-1.47

Budapest

Hungary

-0.96

Estonia

-1.62

Riga

Latvia

-1.44

10.08

0.00

Source: World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, United Nations Population Division

COUNTRIES

1.26

1.11

2.00

0.00

Source: World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, United Nations Population Division

all Oceania Australia/New Zealand Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia

Northern America

all Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean Central America South America

0.34

1.00

all Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe

2.67

3.00

all Asia Eastern Asia South-central Asia South-eastern Asia Western Asia

2.11

Urban population growth rates in countries, by region, 1995-2000

all Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa

(%)

3.97

URBAN POPULATION GROWTH RATES, 1995-2000 Source: World Population Prospects: The 1999 Revision, United Nations Population Division Average annual rate of change of the urban population (%) 6

6.00

5.00

4.00

URBANSHELTER HOUSI NG SECU RITY OF TEN U RE WOMEN’S PROPERTY RIGHTS LAN D HOUSI NG FI NANC E BASIC SERVIC ES TRANSPORT

T H E

S T A T E

O F

T H E

W O R L D ’ S

C I T I E S

2 0 0 1

Tim Vaulkhard

T

his chapter looks at the conditions of shelter throughout the world, and the trends likely to determine whether shanty towns become the prevailing icon of urban life, or whether we shall indeed see a world of cities without slums.

An enabling strategy Around these issues, Habitat II broke new ground. Member States committed themselves to working with local authorities, the private sector and with organizations of civil society as genuine partners in sustainable urban development. The essence of this new consensus is an enabling strategy in which the state no longer assumes the role of direct provider, but creates a legislative and administrative environment in which shelter and services can best be delivered by a wide range of actors. This reappraisal coincides with two other global trends: • the unprecedented rate of urbanization, particularly in the developing world; and • the devolution and decentralization of power and authority. Within an enabling environment, the role of national or local government moves from the direct delivery of services to the creation of appropriate and effective mechanisms to facilitate delivery by the private and community sectors, along with new standards of accountability.

rights abuses, such as mass forced evictions, and confrontation is being replaced by negotiation and participation. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the most urbanized region of the developing world, organized land invasions and mass evictions have declined markedly. As a result, energies have been channelled into negotiating security of tenure and the upgrading of settlements, mainly through self-help construction. Elsewhere in the developing world, the experience is mixed. Post-apartheid South Africa has one of the clearest policies for preventing forced evictions, whereas in some other Sub-Sahara African countries arbitrary and violent evictions still happen. In south Asia, there have been significant settlements in the battles over shelter, but there are still instances of forced evictions.

Women are taking the lead The growing role of women offers one of the most significant policy opportunities in this field, not only as a matter of political equity but as a key imperative for development. Women have demonstrated their contribution through the management of credit programmes, as well as by assuming positions of urban leadership. The Habitat Agenda has helped increase awareness of the tenure rights of women, and of their role in the management of community services.

Water, land, finance and secure tenure

Human rights and sustainable development A significant trend in the past decade has been the growing awareness of the relationship between human rights and sustainable development. In the field of shelter, this has led to a decline in human

28

Rising water demand and water scarcity are rapidly becoming a major challenge, particularly in waterscarce regions like West Asia. The provision of water typically highlights issues of access and cost regarding basic services, with the general rule being

that the urban poor - unable to wield sufficient political power or develop alternative sources of supply - pay the highest prices, while suffering from inadequate provision in many parts of the world. Two of the most important components of a sustainable shelter policy are land and finance. Without assured access to either, the poor will continue to find their own - usually illegal and unhealthy - solutions. Action planning for infrastructure, title registration and micro-credit schemes offer the poor more effective solutions, though in many developing countries improved access to housing finance is also needed even for moderate-to-upper income groups. In all regions of the world, extending urban citizenship to the poor, through the granting of secure tenure for example, is one of the most far-reaching decisions that can be taken in promoting a sustainable shelter strategy.

Local delivery of services Today, local authorities are increasingly providing or managing the most essential urban services. In Latin America and the Caribbean, where 150 million people do not have access to safe water and an estimated 250 million lack proper sanitation, experience has shown that city-wide programmes of support to low-income settlements can have considerable impact on daily living conditions, and that decentralization has helped ensure the implementation of community development programmes, especially the provision of water, sanitation and other basic health measures. Similar lessons emerge from Asia, though the trend towards decentralization is not without pitfalls and has at times resulted in a mis-match between the financial resources and skills of local authorities and their new responsibilities.

www.urbanobservatory.org

Squatters in selected cities Country

% of households living as squatters

Guayaquil

Ecuador

49.00%

Ulaanbaatar

Mongolia

48.40%

Monrovia

Liberia

42.00%

Tacna

Peru

30.00%

Mysore

India

18.90%

Lima

Peru

18.80%

Bangkok

Thailand

17.90%

Phnom Penh

Cambodia

16.40%

Jinja

Uganda

16.00%

Pokhara

Nepal

14.00%

Camaguey

Cuba

10.30%

San Salvador

El Salvador

9.50%

Cajamarca

Peru

8.50%

Vientiane

Lao

7.40%

Bishkek

Kyrghyzstan

6.00%

Algiers

Algeria

5.90%

Buenos Aires

Argentina

5.70%

Cebu

Philippines

5.00%

Vina del mar

Chile

3.90%

Cienfuegos

Cuba

3.30%

Belgrad

Yugoslavia

2.30%

Valparaiso

Chile

1.67%

Katowice

Poland

1.50%

Kuwait

Kuwait

0.80%

Ljubljana

Slovenia

0.10%

Yerevan

Armenia

0.04%

Gdansk

Poland

0.02%

Teddy A. Suyasa/Topham Picturepoint/UNEP

City

29

some regional variations • In highly industrialized countries, demographic trends - including smaller families and an ageing population - are increasing the demand for smaller housing units closer to social services and amenities. • Falling birth rates are expected to lead to a gradual decrease in the urbanization rate in many developing countries. • In most European countries the conservation, renovation and modernization of existing stock is a higher priority than the provision of new housing. • In Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where the quality of old dwellings is generally inferior to the housing stock in Western Europe, modernization of existing stock is a key requirement. • In Turkey, as well as the Russian Federation and the Central Asian republics, overall demand for new housing stock remains high. • In the United States, a strong economy has pushed the price of housing in many cities out of reach not just for the poor, but for young middle class families also.