02.Tourism in Asia and the Pacific

Session 2. The Current Current Situation and Future Outlook for Tourism in Asia and the Pacific Ramon Benedicto A. Alampay, Ph.D. Asian Institute of Management

International Tourism Trends post-2008 Cautious optimism. Particularly in Asia and the Pacific

International Visitor Arrivals, by Region International (in millions, 2000-2009 2000-2009))

Average Growth Per Year 00-09 Global: 2.87% Asia and Pacific: 5.76%

SOURCE: UN WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATON 

Change 2008-2009 2008-2009 Global: -4.24% Europe: -5.60% Americas: - 4.70% Asia and Pacific: -1.68%

“The global recovery has evolved better than expected, with activity recovering at varying speeds–– tepidly in many advanced economies but solidly in most emerging and developing economies… Among Among advanced economies, the United States is o f  to a better start than Europe and Japan. Among emerging and developing economies, emerging Asia is in the lead.” - International Monetary Fund (April 2010)

Average Real GDP Growth (%) in Asia, 2010–11 Overall, the rate of economic recovery has been better than expected, though at different speeds for different countries. Nevertheless, there still is a Nevertheless, lot of uncertainty in the shortto mid-term. • • •

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The Greek/euro crisis Political unrest in Bangkok The new US offensive in Afghanistan etc.

“...unlike previous major crises such as 9/11 and SARS, the current downturn does not impact so much on the desire to travel... Though certainly not immune to economic woes,

tourism has so far resisted the economic downturn better than other economic sectors, such as construction, real estate, or car manufacturing.” - UN World Tourism Tourism Organization Organ ization

 Asia-Pacific Region has been fairly resilient Greater proportion of intra-regional tourists less dependent on long-haul travelers from Europe and North America.

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Growth in regional low-cost carriers has boosted travel to neighboring countries Rise of China, India, Korea, and Russia as key international tourism sourc source e markets Easing of border restrictions around the region

 Asia and the Pacific as a Tourism Region DRIVERS OF GROWTH

INDICATORS

Increasing affluence within region; growing

7.3% annual growth rate projected to year 2020;

Entry of China, India & Russia as source markets

Global share to rise from 15% in 1995 to 25% by 2020

Easing of border  restrictions

Increasing intraregional traffic

Steadily regaining momentum Upward trend since the last quarter  of 2009 Positive growth for first two months of 2010, in all regions, led by Asia and the Pacific (+10%) Hong Kong: +14% Macau: +16% Indonesia: +14% Singapore: +21% Vietnam: +36%

SOURCE: UN World Tourism Organizaton

Jan-Feb 2010 = 119 million arrivals; Higher than 2009 figures f igures (112 million) but still 2% below 2008 numbers

International Tourism. Back to growth in 2010

Asia-Pacific is the Fastest Growing Tourism Region in the World

Regional Shares of Global Tourism (1950-2009)

Asia-Pacific share has been rising. 1950 = 0.8% of total 2009 = 20.6% of total

SOURCE: UN World Tourism Organizaton and OECD

Over the long-term, intraregional travel in Asia & the Pacific is expected to continue to grow...

…as will DOMESTIC tourism by Asian residents.

International Internation al Tourism Tourism 2009/10 forecast 2 0 09

Forecast 2010

World

-4%

3% to 4%

Europe

-6%

1% to 3%

 Asia & the Pacific

-2%

5% to 7%

 Americas

-5%

2% to 4%

 Africa

+5%

4% to 7%

Middle East

-6%

5% to 9%

Profile Pr ofile of the new tourist Independent experienced technology oriented demanding = Value for money (quality in products and service / to deliver what is “promised”) more active (compleme (complementary ntary activities) and willing to learn from other cultures taking shorter but more frequent vacations throughout the year  environmentally environmen tally and socially sensitive

New Challenges for Tourism Tourism in the 21st Century Centur y

ACCESS DESTINATION

TOURISTS Increasing volumes of tourists Changing profiles of  tourists

Access in terms of  transport, information, and borders

New types of  attractions and destinations Destination management

More governments, development agencies, and NGOs are recognizing the potentials (and risks) of tourism for economic growth, sustainable resource use, and equitable social development.

Thank you very much.